US10Y - Looking ParabolicAfter a 40 year bull run we are seeing a significant counter trend movement. Sitting at .23 retrace, if this fails could we see .38 and the US10Y at 6% ?
US10Y trade ideas
govt bonds rising hardoh look at the 10 y bond yields
from the major economies.
only 2 years ago Govt could borrow very cheaply
but all good things come to an end.
now govt have to pay more for borrowing
to fund their profligate spending... on guns
and butter.
china can no longer export deflation with cheap goods.
RMB is too strong these days. the game is up.
let the bankers take nations to war again.
oh wait its already happening.
US10Y Pull-back aiming for the 1D MA50 at least.This is the U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) on a 2 year horizon. As you see its aggressive rise can fit only on a Fibonacci Channel. The recent pull-back happened after the price hit the 2.5 Fibonacci extension and the 1D RSI a largely overbought level and the price is already on the 2.0 Fib.
As you see, the strongest buys throughout this period have been then the RSI hit the designated Support Zone. Also the strongest pull-backs dropped the price a whole 1.0 Fib level lower. From the previous 2.5 High, the low extension is at 1.5 and that gives us still some room to sell and target at least the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
Technically it would be best to buy once the 1D RSI enters the Support Zone again, even if that means missing on the lowest possible level. From were we stand today that could be as low as the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Regardless of the exact bottom, as long as the 1D MA300 (red trend-line) holds, which has been supporting since January 06 2021, the bullish target is the 2.5 Fib and the 3.0 in extension.
If the price breaks below the 1D MA300 though, we will consider this a long-term trend change to bearish and should switch to a sell-the-rebounds strategy. That would affect all asset classes from stocks to Gold etc, but when that happens we will have plenty of time to analyze it.
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10Y omnious signallingBlow-off in the making? 87 correction on deck? Target date late oct / early nov.
Morning Update: Bonds vs. The MarketYesterday I saw some comments about how bonds yields have come down recently and that is one of the components aiding the stock markets recent bull run. The above chart is the 10yr Treasury. If you could flip this chart upside down, it would be a chart of the SPX.
Here's my concern with this chart and how I'm looking at the SPX. This pattern is not done to the upside in the 10yr. It appears this trend continues well into 2023....where as I am looking for a bottom in the SPX this month or beginning of November. I believe every chart stands on it's own. But its hard to ignore the long standing inverse correlation between bonds and stocks. If this correlation continues into 2023...(I have no information to think I will not) then it is possible this low I'm looking for soon in stocks is just a larger A wave and this wave IV in the SPX and this pattern could drag well into new year.
We will know if the next decline in the SPX is one in which we loose any MACD positive divergence we have had on the daily SPX.
Best to all,
Chris
Updating this very old US10YThe bond bull is over and the new path to rising rates. It looks like we have reached the resistance of the red box , there is a chance we do an over shoot like we did at the bottom and then reverse to the green box ( which will be adjusted is the if we over shoot). Then we keep rising in a wave like manner.
Correlation of Bond Yield and US500Simple comparison between the two, we can see this correlation happened twice in recent times. With bond yield attempting making lower highs and lows, we can see US500 index are starting to rise up from the ashes. Targeting 4000 for US500, US10Y at 3% in a month or two, before some BS news gonna pop and kill the rally for the equities. Recession is inevitable after years of money printing and lending to prop the economies. Dollar index are nearing multiple decades high. Tough times are coming. Those who prevail shall be the next wealthy people; provided they are prepare for the next opportunity in the market.
10 Years US Treasury Yield - ShortThe yield has just completed a prefect impulse cycle with a fifth wave projection at 123%.
We recommend going short the yield (long the bond) with a tp target at 2.90/2.60.
10YY up trend breakYesterday markets responded positively to a clear break out from the recent up trend in bond yields as shown on this chart. Anticipation of Fed reversal? Maybe, but I think its a good idea to watch what happens at the support levels below where we are at now.
Market recapWith the interest rate hike correlation to US10Y Bonds, as the rates are rising we are seeing demand for risky assets drop off, people are cashing out of these asset classes and money is moving to bonds, in consequence we are seeing the USD start gaining great strength.
The US10Y market is very interesting, as we appear to have broken a downtrend on the weekly chart going back decades, trendlines are neither here or that but with such a long history does this maybe add any more validity? (Who Knows).
Going forward we could see XAU make moves from its old value area and make a move down to pre-covid inflation around $1200-$1300.
I recently posted a short in the US stock market which I have attached below of where I believe the market will price in if what we are seeing in the rates and bonds continue to occur.
Crypto being the most risk adverse of assets discussed here and the volatility involved imo holds the greatest risk yet, although we could see this obscene dollar valuations as a rare occurance? maybe a DCA approach can lead to good returns overall. However I see large falls inbound whether they happen this week or next who knows, but it is a risky asset class to hold in potential market turbulence we could see over the next few months.
NY session recap: +2R for the dayThis video is a recap of the trading session over the equities hours in NY. Made 2R for the day. Keeping an eye on USD and yields and looking for renewed strength for explosive trade setups later in the week.
Oct 3rd W1 Pre-open analysis: AUD/USD bears lurking AUD/USD broke a weekly level and the focus stays on the downside for the week ahead.
US10Y-US02Y - compare RVGI indicator❌cross and BitcoinUpdate on US10Y-US02Y...
compare RVGI indicator❌cross and Bitcoin
Not a cross yet in the extreme area of this indicator that would mark a quite good entry for BTC
But the next cross for a possible Entry point is ahead dear Crypto Nation 💥🚀😎
Comments & FOLLOW appreciated 🤗
*not financial advice
do your own research before investing
US10Y - 10Y Bonds: Run Forest RuuunInsanity at it's best.
These market manipulation we see today and the unbelievable cooked reports and stupidity by the FED is killing everything.
The crowd will hold the bag because inflation will spike to the moon.
Here comes the 10Y Bonds - Rolling everything into the ground. Good luck pumpers.
Is this the top in Yields?Pretty interesting chart here.
The 10year yields have now retraced .618 of the move from the 2018 highs to the Covid 2020 lows.
FOMC is in 2 days - if Powell offers no surprises, I wouldn't be shocked to call this the top in the 10 year for now. IF we start to get a reversal in rates - get long bonds such as $TLT or $ZROZ - and tech might even rally.
Just something to watch!
End of the BEAR MARKET at 1984 levelsUS Bonds breaking decades long downtrend, interest rates rising sharply with dollar strength
Heavy break in structure to the upside, no resistance structures left
Bear market likely ends at 1984 levels, #DXY highs
Further global escalations are to be expected
Yields down. Stocks up.A significant move to the downside in 10 year bond yields off the 4% level today. Right at the top of this parallel channel. Also positive moves on tech stocks as a result.
US 10 year yield, slope acceleratingFor an "uncontrolled sell of in bonds" it's interesting you can run a ruler under the trend.
Maybe not . soooo ... uncontrolled.
The upward ( acceleration ) in the yield trend recently is notable)
US10Y Elliot Wave Analysis (fun might be over) **WHERE DO WE START**
At this point it is nearly unarguable that the move up form the Covid lows looks impulsive, meaning we are in some sort of a new bull cycle.
In the past, since US10Y's inception back in the late 1970s the path it followed had a downwards trajectory that made new lows after each bull cycle was done. The US10Y would then correct those lows over the next 2-4 years or so and retrace to .5 fib or .618 fib of the previous high. It did this every single time, however in 2022 it is acting very different. For the first time in history since inception the US10Y blasted through the .618 fibonacci retracement of the previous top which was in November of 2018.
My view was bearish for most of this year since we were coming up against strong resistances, however since the price pierced through them all with little effort and continued up makes me lean bullish on the Macro outlook.
**TRUNCATION**
Truncation (definition) - What is truncation in trading. In most impulses, the fifth of the Elliott waves extends beyond the extremum of the third wave, but sometimes the fifth wave may not reach the end of the third wave . This phenomenon is called truncation or truncated wave.
The next event I need to go into is the truncation of the 5th wave down that took place in August of 2020. Truncations are rare events in Elliot Wave Theory and require very careful analysis to ensure the count is not something different. It is more likely to see a truncation in very volatile environments, and Covid crash of 2020 was undoubtably one. This truncation does not show up on US05Y or US02Y leading me to believe the actual bottom on US10Y was in August of 2020 and NOT in March of 2020. However this doesn't change the current count, just some clarification for those using Elliot Waves.
**WHERE ARE WE NOW**
Since the bottom we see an impulse up of which waves (1) and (2) are complete and wave (3) is in progress currently finishing it's 5th subwave. I expect the price to come to 4% or even 4.5% before the likelihood of a pullback for wave (4) becomes highly likely. The wave (4) retracement should be relatively large pulling back to .236 or .382 on the fibonacci levels from the top of wave (3). The price could come down to 2.75% - 3.5% on US10Y depending on how high wave (3) ends up going, although wave (4) pullback is allowed to go as low as .5 fib which could bring the US10Y down even below 2.75%, but I must say I find that unlikely considering how bullish this move up is coming to be.
**LIKELY PRICE PATH**
What's beginning to look clear is that after we finish wave (4) in a 3 wave structure down or perhaps a triangle formation (common in wave 4 pullbacks), we are still going to need to complete the impulse sequence and start a wave (5) up. Yes, I expect US10Y to hit and possibly go past 5%. Once there we have a completed wave 1 on a Macro outlook since the crash of 2020. I will then expect government treasury bond yields to enter a short term "bear market" and correct the entire move shown in the chart as red ABC down. This could then be last great pullback... and an opportunity to buy a house at a very affordable rate. Why? Because once this ABC that will correct this entire bull move up is done, we should see continuation in rising interest rates in a new bull cycle up. A 5 wave Elliot impulse is not a complete sequence, it should be followed by a 3, 7, or 11 wave down correction. Typically retracing to .5 or .618 on fibonnaci retracement levels and continue up again in a minimum of 5 waves.
**CONCLUSION**
The era of cheap rates might be coming to an end, and 2020 covid crash might have marked a long term bottom on treasury yields.
Cheers,
Check out the exact overbought level + SPY is oversoldThis has reached a high Overbought signal exactly the same level it was at previously at the start of the reversal.
Also look at the SPY S&P 500 has crossed below 30 on the daily RSI which means officially oversold.
When the market reversal happens all the same fud is still going on just before theirs no warning. This does not mean it's the end but a small rally up should be expected soon. It could also continue on more oversold or Overbought even further although comparing to past instances it is unlikely to go that far. So this is definitely something to keep a close eye on now it is that time to pay attention to the RSI again.
The spread on the 2 and 10 year bond yields is breaking downBreaking down below record lows. Things are looking grim
