US10Y LongIt looks like the final fifth wave has begun. It is assumed that it will end in the range of 4% -4.4%
US10Y trade ideas
Yield Curve LogarithmicYield curve on a log scale
Us 10 Year minus US 2 year (the yield curve) monthly logarithmic chart.
Clear linearities at the top of the range and at the bottom of the range. Indicates we are currently at a bottom. Closest analog is the early 2000's period.
Us10yHello friends, I hope you are doing well, if we look carefully at the chart, we will notice that a QML structure and a return in the form of cp is forming, I think the chart should move down after hitting the supply zone, good luck, this is It's just my opinion.
Crash Incoming 5? (Update)Based on this chart, on August 15 we reach the year 2000 level (see the red arrows) of the yield curve. Since then, the curve started its way up, leading the S&P 500 (markets) to the recent trend change:
This data will lead us to a major crash as the earlier ones? Time will tell, but be very careful, it's the only we can do, since there are no crystal balls. Good Luck!
Ten year yield confounds the wedgeProbably related to the US dollar strength the ten year yield has broken out of the wedge pattern to the upside. We could see this transform into a triangle pattern.
Dollar and treasury yields are back on the marchU.S. Treasury yields moved higher on Friday to their highest since July 21 and U.S. stock futures fell by almost 1%, along with similar losses in Europe. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was up 8 basis points at 2.967% as the Fed indicated July meeting minutes that it would continue hiking rates until inflation slows down significantly, although the central bank could soon decrease its pace of tightening.
The 10-year Treasury yields above its 100-day exponential moving average, yields may extend its strength to 3.00% mark with the dollar's rally.
US10Y bond is looking also bearish Short on this US10 year bond because it is making bearish ascending triangle in higher time frame
Ten year yieldThe US 10 year yield on treasury bonds is in a bearish rising wedge chart pattern. this follows the previous head and shoulders pattern. I expect yields to drop and bonds to increase in price.
10 y bondlooking for the key s/r ranges. using fib tracement i can see key ares of price action. looking for any deviations up higher to short, or deviations to long.
the stagflation paradox. higher real rates + steepen yield curvehi there, dear fellow.
we've recently stumbled upon this chart, in the quest for a leading gauge for the dxy.
this chart depicts a paradox.
in white, US10Y-USIRYY; in orange, US10Y-US02Y.
if you remember our previous idea, namely on the DXY and the yield curve spread (US10Y-US02Y), we've pointed out back then that a steepening of the yield curve would be bearish for the DXY.
well, now we just compared it with our gauge for the real rates, namely US10Y-USIRYY.
what happens is, as it itself is on an extreme low in the last 20y+ (i haven't checked it beyond that, and it doesn't matter), it's likely to eventually revert to the mean. by the way, that's where the fed efforts are pointing to.
that on itself is DXY bullish, untill and unless other CBs beat the fed in hawkishness, which is not the case by now.
the recent tandem between both curves (since feb/21), suggests they're going up together, when and if.
as for the orange curve, that should be dollar (DXY) bearish; as for the white on, bullish.
who wins?
the white one, for as higher real rates make more sense to be dollar bullish than it makes to be dollar bearish under a steepened yield curve.
why? world wide higher inflation.
in short, literally, DXY has a long way to go. our estimate is 2y+ of pain for stocks and cryptos, for as high and higher DXY is risk off for SPX and BTC.
thank you.
Bonds Rise On WeeklyMonthly chart looks like we are topping on the US10Y. Weekly chart tells a different story. I believe the Weekly US10Y is telling us that fed is going to have to be more hawkish with interest rates on 21st September. We will see if i am right.
The 10Y is Setting Up for a RunStocks, beware.
When this bad boy starts moving up, stocks look less attractive.
US 10-year back inside bear channelAfter today's disappointing Chinese and US macro data and the slump in crude oil, bond yields have slumped as investors have further priced in "peak inflation" amid recession risks.
The US 10-year yield broke out of its bear channel a couple of sessions ago, which was bad news for low-yielding assets. But it has now gone back inside that channel, meaning the downtrend that started since mid-June continues.
Assuming yields remain inside the channel, this is potentially good news for gold and silver, and yen.
Both precious metals fell on Monday, so we may see some dip-buying in light of the drop in yields.
By Fawad Razaqzada on behalf of FOREX.com
Crash Incoming 5?This is my particular chart of the well known inverted yield curve with the S&P500 (green line). The blue line reversal (marked by the circles) generally coincides with a big crash. Today it's near the green trend line (see white circle), which means that the reversal could happen soon.
US10YUS 10-Year Bond Yield (US10Y) | At 3.15% I highlighted the yield approaching an overbought range, with the potential to retrace over the short term. We saw a move toward 3.49% followed a bid in bonds and a retracement toward the recent low of 2.51%, giving bond holders some reprieve while also supporting the bid in equity markets. The recent rebound also came off the lower boundary of the 200-day linear regression channel, which was between 2 and 2.5x the mean over 200 days.
Week Ahead Stock prices went down a lot during trading on Thursday, but they went up a lot during trading on Friday. Because of the rally that happened during the day, the main averages set new highs for the first quarter as they closed.
As the trading day came to an end, the main averages went up even more, and at the end of the session, they were at their highest levels of the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average went up 424.38 points, or 1.3% , to 33,761.05 . The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 267.27 points, or 2.1 %, to 13,047.19 , while the S&P500 rose 72.88 points, or 1.7% , to 4,280.15. The S&P 500 index went up by 3.3 % over the course of the week, giving it its fourth straight weekly gain. The Nasdaq and Dow both gained 3.1 percent and 2.9 percent, respectively. The current trend of stocks going up has continued, so the main averages are now much higher than they were in June and have reached their highest levels in the last three months. As a result of data showing that consumer and producer prices were lower than expected, there is hope that inflation has reached its peak, which has also helped Wall Street keep going. The U.S. Department of Labor (Labor Department) recently released a study that showed prices for goods brought into the U.S. from other countries fell more than expected in July.
The prices paid for imported goods went down by 1.4 % in July, according to the Department of Labor. This was after an increase of 0.3% in June that was later changed to be higher. Since import costs hadn't gone down since December of 2021, this was a big change. Instead of the 0.2% increase in import prices that was first reported for the previous month, economists had expected import prices to drop by 1.0% . The survey also showed that the prices of goods sold abroad went down by 3.3% in July after going up by 0.7% in June. It was expected that export prices would go down by 1.1% . According to a University of Michigan study, consumer mood in the United States improved much more than expected in August. This made people more interested in buying things. According to the survey, the index that shows how consumers feel about the economy went up from 51.5 in July to 55. 1 in August. The average prediction of economists was that the index would go up to 52.5. After hitting a new all-time low of 50. 0 in June, the index of consumer sentiment kept going up in July, with a bigger gain than had been expected. According to another report from the University of Michiga n, inflation estimates for the next year dropped from 5.2 percent in July to 5.0 percent in August, but inflation estimates for the next five years went up from 2.9 percent t to 3.0 percent.
Estimates of inflation for one year are at their lowest level since February, but Director of Surveys of Consumers Joanne Hsu pointed out that these estimates are still much higher than the 4.6 percent figure from one year ago.
The main reason why the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index went up by three percent was that the prices of semiconductor stocks went back up after falling earlier in the week. The NYSE Arca Airline Index went up by 2.8% to a closing high that hadn't been seen in the market for two months. This shows that airline stocks were also very strong. The strong performance of networking stocks all day led directly to a gain of 2.6 percentage points for the NYSE Arca Networking Index. At the end of the session, the market index hit its highest level in well over three months. Gold stocks, chemical stocks, and brokerage stocks all moved up a lot, as did most of the other main market segments. Different Markets Friday's trading on stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region was a mixed bag, which shows how uncertain the region's economy is as a whole. After a holiday on Thursday, the Nikkei 225 Index in Japan went up by 2.6 percentage points , but the Shanghai Composite Index in China went down by 0.2 percentage poin ts. At the same time, on any given day, all of the major European markets were up. While the DAX Index in Germany went up by 0.7% , the FTSE 100 Index in the UK went up by 0.5%, and the CAC 40 Index in France went up by 0.1%. The value of Treasury's was able to make up some ground on the bond market after losing a lot during the previous session. As a result, the yield on the benchmark ten-year note fell by 3.9 basis points to 2.849 percent, moving in the opposite direction of its price.
Along with the flood of housing statistics coming out next week, reports on retail sales and industrial output are sure to get a lot of attention. Traders will almost certainly keep a close eye on the minutes from the Federal Reserve's most recent meeting, hoping to learn something new about how interest rates will move in the future.
How to improve your trading by looking at interest rates: Part 1Hey everyone! 👋
This month, we wanted to explore the topic of interest rates; what they are, why they are important, and how you can use interest rate information in your trading. This is a topic that new traders typically gloss over when starting out, so we hope this is a helpful and actionable series for new people looking to learn more about macroeconomics and fundamental analysis!
The first question when dealing with interest rates is how to see the information on TradingView. While you can always click the "Bonds" tab under "Markets" and navigate to the "Rates" table, an even easier way to view interest rates across the globe is by using the 'search' terminal and typing in "10Y". Then, click "Economy", and you should be able to see all of the global 10 year interest rates markets:
This configuration will get you "10 year" rates, but you can get different maturity bonds by using other tickers. For example, you can see United States 3 month rates by typing "US03M", or Brazilian 10 year rates by typing "BR10Y". All of the rates markets in our system follow this ticker standard. Try one! It's easy.
For people who aren't familiar, here's the lowdown on how interest rates work.
Interest rates fluctuate in the open market just like stocks or cryptocurrency; they move inversely to government bond prices. In this way, you can simply look at government bond prices to get a sense of how interest rates are doing -> they will be moving in the opposite direction.
The reason behind this is that when bonds are issued, they are issued with a "par value" and a "coupon rate". Let's say that the par value for a government bond is $1,000, and the coupon rate is 2%. This means that every year, the bond issuer will pay the bond owner $20.
The thing is, after bonds are issued, they can be traded freely in the open market. Let's say that the $1,000 bond increases in value and begins trading at $1,030 because there is significant demand for some reason. Because the $20 paid to the bondholder is fixed, the actual "interest rate" that buyers get when they pay $1,030 for the bond a bit lower than 2% -> 1.94% to be exact.
Thus, changes in bond prices change the real time "interest rates" in the market!
One thing to note: Government bond rates are different than the Government-set "funds" rate, which is decided on by a country's central bank.
Next week in part 2, we'll take a look what drives supply and demand for government bonds / interest rates, and how monetary policy influences all the assets you trade. Plus, how you can use this information to your advantage!
See you next week!
- Team TradingView ❤️❤️
10y-2y analysisshows what the Fed is looking at
A measure of prices that people living in the United States, or those buying on their behalf, pay for goods and services. It's sometimes called the core PCE price index, because two categories that can have price swings – food and energy – are left out to make underlying inflation easier to see.
10 Year Yield & Trapped Bears: Busted Breakout PatternTechnicals :
Gabriel Grammatidis's Busted Breakout Pattern
Trend
Bond YieldsWatching for a reversal here on bond yields to determine direction for equities and the dollar.
Expecting that a follow through here would also indicate a reversal in risk assets and support for the dollar.
US10 DownUS Down on Daily and Weekly
US Down on Daily and Weekly
US Down on Daily and Weekly
US Down on Daily and Weekly
10YY - 2YY inversionOn the theme of bond yield inversion. I see the look of the yield chart as being similar to the dot com bubble top. We see 2 big candles down and then for a number of months the curve stayed inverted. At the same time the Nasdaq cratered.
