Preparing for the recession: US10Y-US03M inversionThe inversion of US10Y-US03M is in my opinion the best recession indicator.
Recession in 6 to 18 months.
US10Y trade ideas
US10Y - 10Y Bonds: And Reverse Forest RuuunLet's see:
This was the chart I posted this year:
We reached the U-MLH.
This is the stretch to the upside. How ever, it could go further towards the Moon.
But usually, if price get rejected at the MLH's, we see the opposite move. In this case to the downside, to the Centerline.
This is a great opportunity, the second time this year in the 10Y Bonds, which I clearly will not miss.
Additionally this would indicate a bounce in the index markets (S&P500, Nasdaq etc.).And if you pay attention to my S&P Chart, then you know that the Centerline is reached too there.
So prepare for a possible bounce, even it's just temporarily.
US 10-year creeping higherWorth watching bond yields here as they have started to creep higher - could spell trouble for gold, silver, Nasdaq et. al.
The 10-year has found some support from the upper end of the key support area between 3.50% to 3.65%.
Although it is not an outright bullish signal for the 10-year yield, there's the possibility that it could stage a more meaningful recovery.
Remember, Fed Chair Powell is speaking on Wednesday, and we have lots of US data to look forward to this week too.
By Fawad Razaqzada on behalf of FOREX.com
US10YUS 10-Year Bond Yield. Another 'failed' topping structure or will yields finally make a solid move to the downside? #US10Y
US10Y Still bearish at least on the short-termThe U.S. Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) has gone a long way since our top prediction a month ago:
As you see, the Lower Highs 1D RSI Bearish Divergence, accurately projected the top and the price broke much lower than the 1D MA50. On a short-term horizon, as long as it fails to close above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), we will be targeting the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). Only a break above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) can restore the bullish trend, towards the 4.330 High as it happened on June 01 2022. On the other hand a closing below the 1D MA200 (yellow trend-line) would confirm the long-term trend switch from bullish to bearish.
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Us rates ... trend downUs rates has show some weakness now and due to it we are opening a short position
US 10 YEAR BOND YIELD ANALYSISThe long term bond yields are falling. The 10 Year yield may find support at 3.0- 3.2 before consolidating and breaking out or reversing. 3.0 - 3.2 zone is previous support/resistance where the market has turned before.
$TVC and $SPYSometimes looking at $TVC is a good leading indicator for market sentiments. Another one would be comparing it to $SPX or $SPY along with $DXY
next cross of 10y-03y vs 10y03m would be recessionnext cross of 10y-03y vs 10y03m would be recession
next cross of 10y-03y vs 10y03m would be recession
next cross of 10y-03y vs 10y03m would be recession
US10YNot financial advice. The essence of investing & trading is the intelligent and patient preying on the greed, fear, impatience, addiction and ignorance of the majority. It's definitionally
*GET OUT FROM THE STOCK MARKET*
US10Y < SOFR = Hold my beer.US 10 year yields are again less than the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR.) The last time this happened was December of 2018, and things were papered over. Position accordingly. Idea credit to Reddit u/BoatSurfer600.
"Double top" for US10Y around Oct - Nov 2022"Double top" formed for US10Y around Oct - Nov 2022, dollar index follow closely with US10Y since 2022, which may indicate the Dollar index may "peak" for current stage.
2y 10y spread re-steepeningAfter inversion, re-steepening signifies the impending materialization of the stress in the financial system and economy. Looks like this is just the beginning of this downturn and imo we're headed for a massive recession.
Go long stocks short 10y bond yieldLook at where the 10y yield is currently trading - its right above its 200 period moving average at major resistance. This is yet another indicator to me that stocks have bottomed and inflation will start to fall away this year. Bond yields should fall away again as we move through the year.
I bought heavily into stocks last week, amazon at $2050, Netflix at $170, Meta at $189, Snap at $22 plus so many others. This bond chart really shows me that things are due for a major reverse now and if you caught my dollar (DXY) short post on Friday you are already massively in profit in that short too. There are so many great opportunities now to add to stocks on dips and keep shorting the dollar (provided we see a nice steady drop in CPI figures each month for the rest of the year).
US Government Bonds 10Y long-term viewIn the long-term, US Government Bonds 10Y could start another bullish rally. Looking at the Fibonacci, we have recovered to the 23.6% and managed to move above. A possible pullback could bring us back up to 3.00%, and after that, we could start with a new bullish impulse toward the 38.2% level (6,25%). The target before that level is the 5.00% level. This scenario could positively impact the dollar index in the coming period.
US10Y Is more selling pressure ahead?The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) confirmed our huge Bearish Divergence spotted on our October 25 analysis and started the first pull-back since July:
The price is now below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since August 19 and today is testing it as a Resistance. A double candle close above the 1D MA50, restores the bullish trend towards the October 21 High. Failure to establish two 1D candle closings above it, should most likely extend the selling pressure towards the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which was where the pull-backs of March 07 and November 09 2021 found Support. A closing below it targets the final long-term Support of 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
As you see on the chart, that still wouldn't change the long-term bullish trend on the US10Y as it would hit the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up (green). On the other hand a closing below the 1D MA200, would constitute a long-term trend change to bearish and target first the 1W MA100 (red trend-line).
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** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
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Yield Curve has NEVER been inverted so much! UH OH !Yield curve is at -0.70% currently
The lowest it's ever been was before the DOT COM BUBBLE at -0.5%.
Does this mean that the next CRASH will be worst than the DOT CUM BUBBLE? dammmm....
How much time do we have? I say 6-12 months.
Yield curve = US10Y - US02Y
Yield curve inverts moreQuite a big move on the yield curve inversion (10 year below 3 month) indicating a very negative outlook for the economy.
US10Y : A peak in EFFR ???The US10Y is now moving deeper below the EFFR.
It is said if it falls below by 25 - 50 bps, we are seeing the PEAK in the EFFR.
This is the BOND market signaling the end of rate hike. If this is the case, we can see long term bond yield falling, followed by the short term later. One notable sign is the 10s02s which is falling further into -ve territory.
PIVOT is close.
Lets watch this closely from now on.
US 10-Year Bond YieldShort term trend has been lower, partly supporting the rally in equities. This move has also supported the buy/long idea on the TLT ETF.
Yield Curve Inversion Continues: More Pain Ahead Later?This post will provide a quick macro update concerning the yield curve inversion in US bond markets, which have often (though not always) been followed by a bear market in equities.
Note the various yield curve inversions in the 10-2 Treasury yield. This compares the 10Y US Treasury yield with the 2Y US Treasury yield , and when the 2Y yield exceeds the 10Y yield, the curve inverts (the result of 10Y - 2Y is a negative number).
The yield curve has now become inverted for the second time this year. The inversion is deepening, and it's been 10 consecutive days of inversion territory. The inversion is entering its 3rd week of the 10s-2s being inverted.
This is starting to exceed the inversion in 2005-2006 that lead to the 2 year bear market b/w 2007-2008 and it's approach about 1/2 the depth of the inversion in 2000, which was a severe bear that led to the NDC falling 70% over 2 years.
The chart above allows an easy visual comparison between prior inversions (labeled by date) and the current inversion.
The black line on the chart represents the Nasdaq 100 NASDAQ:NDX , also tracked by the NASDAQ:QQQ ETF traded on US securities exchanges.
The current inversion presages a higher likelihood of more pain in equities and other risk assets . An inversion does not necessarily lead to an immediate market decline as history shows, but it tends to lead to recession, which in turn is associated with extended bear markets (rather than a more minor 1-3 month correction as was seen with the Covid crash in 2020).
There was a minor inversion between the 10s-2s Treasuries in March 2022, 3 months ago, but that one only lasted 2 days. The current inversion has lasted now for about 2 weeks and looks likely to continue.
The current inversion has become more deeply negative than even the 2006 inversion, which presaged a severe-2 year bear market associated with the Great Financial Crisis. But so far, it only approaches half the depth of the 2000 inversion, which presaged a different but severe 2-year bear market that saw the Nasdaq lose 70% of its value (albeit with several powerful multi-week / month bear rallies interposed in between major declines).
SPX vs US yield inversionsTrying to find some statistical evidence to support the leading expanding diagonal on SPX500...
Obvious SPX tops and bottoms with the extremes of yield difference between 10 and 2 year Treasury Notes.
I am preparing for a longer down trend in SPX
Trade safe
10yr -3m Inverted Yields VS. Stock market bottom recession Using a 10yr -3m Inverted Yields VS. Stock market bottom recession. June 2025 is when the market will start to improve if history repeats itself.
