US Government Bonds 10 YR Yield forum
SPY My AI Jerome Powell 
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US10Y Jay Powell Mode Activated: How I See This Data in the Current Market
This morning’s economic data presents a mixed but concerning picture in the context of our dual mandate: price stability and maximum employment.
Inflation Is Still Sticky
Core PCE QoQ at 2.7% (above 2.5% forecast) suggests that inflation remains persistent.
The GDP Price Index at 2.4% is also running hotter than expectations.
Consumer spending remains very strong (Real Consumer Spending QoQ at 4.2%, up from 3.7%), which could keep demand-driven inflation elevated.
Durable Goods Orders rebounded strongly (3.1% MoM, vs. prior -1.8%), showing that business investment isn’t slowing down as much as we might need.
→ Bottom Line: Inflation is still sticky, and demand remains resilient, which does not justify rate cuts in the near term.
Labor Market Softening, But Not Enough
Initial Jobless Claims at 242K (higher than expected) and Continuing Claims at 1.862M suggest some loosening in the labor market.
However, jobless claims remain well within historical norms—this is not yet the kind of labor market weakness that would force our hand on rate cuts.
→ Bottom Line: Labor is softening but still resilient. We need more data before considering easing.
Policy Implications
No urgency to cut rates: Inflation is still above target, and consumer spending remains robust.
Financial conditions may need to remain restrictive: Market participants expecting a March or even May cut may be overly optimistic.
We remain data-dependent: If labor market weakness accelerates or inflation meaningfully cools, we will reassess. But as of today, the case for holding rates remains strong.
How the Market Should Interpret This
Equities: Risk assets should price in a higher-for-longer scenario. If expectations of rate cuts get pushed further out, we could see renewed equity volatility.
Bonds: Treasury yields may drift higher as markets digest the idea that rate cuts aren’t imminent.
Dollar: Likely to strengthen as the Fed keeps policy tight relative to global peers.
This data does not justify rate cuts at this time—if anything, it reinforces our cautious stance.
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BTCUSDT BTCUSD 
USDCAD US10Y
US10Y 4.447% bearish draw on liquidity
US10Y Expecting one more leg up but watch for a break of the channel. tradingview.com/x/zVq5pFaQ
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SIZ2027
Given that 
ILTB only dates back to 2011, one may look to an approximation to analyze its sensitivity to recessions. I've charted (HQMCB10YR+US10Y)/2 as such. For the most part it's highly correlated to the 10 year Treasury, but shit the bed during the GFC. If you can't handle the turbulence stick with 
BND, which has lower corporate exposure, or just straight Treasuries with no corporate exposure đź’Ş
tradingview.com/x/MTvFnvBz
ILTB only dates back to 2011, one may look to an approximation to analyze its sensitivity to recessions. I've charted (HQMCB10YR+US10Y)/2 as such. For the most part it's highly correlated to the 10 year Treasury, but shit the bed during the GFC. If you can't handle the turbulence stick with BND, which has lower corporate exposure, or just straight Treasuries with no corporate exposure đź’Ştradingview.com/x/MTvFnvBz
