US Recession Imminent! WARNING!Bond traders are best when it comes to economics. Stock traders not so much.
As the chart shows, historically, when rates bunch up, what follows is a recession. During the recession, the economy tries to fix itself by fanning out the yield curve, marking it cheaper to borrow and boosting the economy.
The best time to be buying up stocks and going long the market is when the yield curve is uninverted and fanned out wide—not when it is bunched up like this.
My followers know this is my first warning of a recession since FEB. 2020.
WARNING! Things can get ugly from here very quickly!
US30Y trade ideas
Bullish Bond BonanzaThis chart is simply ultra bullish.
This idea attempts to highlight a bullish pattern, within an ultra bullish pattern.
The first pattern is an Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern which has formed over 16 years!
In Oct 23, US30Y breached the 16 year Year High and since then we have created a double bottom (the second pattern) on the 3M chart at near equal lows around 3.9%
US30Y looks like it wants to break out very soon.
The red areas highlights the 3months selling Fair Value Gaps, however the closest unfilled 3M fair value gaps starts around 6.5%
I anticipate that the price will be initially attracted to the 6.5% area, but inverted head and shoulders pattern could play out over several years to get to the overall target.
Potential Bond Duration Spread - 'Riding The Yield Curve'I expect short-dated treasury yields to drop, increasing their price
ie. buy short-dated treausries
could also go short ultras but my view is that yields will slowly come down across the board so I will not be buying the spread
COT positioning shows commercials favour shorter duration bonds
Plotting the decline in ratesplease approximate the next number in the following number sequence: 1187, 850, 455, 266
...
Therefore, the next number in the sequence might be approximately 163
falls in rates are happening faster and faster. forecasts.org predicting 2% rates by april in the 30Y with the drop starting in oct/nov
US Government Bonds 30YR Yeld (US30Y)As inflation trends closer to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target,
speculation grows around a potential interest rate cut.
The futures market anticipates a 50-basis-point reduction
at the conclusion of the Fed’s September meeting and for rates
to be a full percentage point lower than the current 5.25%-5.5%
range by the end of 2024.
Bull Market in Housing to continue till 2027It would surprise many.
So far House prices have been holding up with rates going parabolic
Strong economies can usually handle a few years of stable rates in around 5%
Supercycle's generally last 16-18 years
As we saw in the great Bull run of 1982 to 2000
A repeat of this cycle timeframe: would mean
#Bitcoin top 2025 (2009 inception)
#Stocks 2026 (march 2009)
#property 2027 due to lag and time to make a sale. (End of 2011)
Why Are Bonds Still Crashing?Why are US, UK, and EU bonds still crashing since March 2020?
In this video, we are going to study the relationship between bonds, yields, and interest rates, which many of us find confusing. How can we understand them, and why are bond prices leading the yield, followed by interest rates this season?
10 Year Yield Futures
Ticker: 10Y
Minimum fluctuation:
0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
US30Y: A Deep Dive into US30Y Bond Swing-Trade OpportunityThe US30Y bond is a type of loan that the United States government takes from investors. It's called a "30-year bond" because it takes 30 years for the government to pay back the loan in full. When you buy a US30Y bond, you're essentially lending money to the government, and in return, they promise to pay you back the amount you lent, plus interest, over the 30-year period.
People trade US30Y bonds because they can buy and sell them before they mature. This means you can potentially make money by selling the bond for more than you paid for it if its value goes up, or you might sell it for less if its value goes down. The value of the bond can change based on factors like interest rates, inflation, and economic conditions.
Most investors often see US30Y bonds as a safer investment compared to stocks because they're backed by the government.
However, they still carry risks, such as changes in interest rates or inflation levels. So, people who trade US30Y bonds need to carefully consider these factors before making investment decisions.
Now let's get into the detailed analysis of this bond
12M:
6M:
3M:
1M:
1D:
Short term yields still weak, longer term reversedWhat a difference 11 hours makes.
The 1 & 2 Yr #Yield are STILL under resistance & are weakening.
10 & 30 Yr completely reversed once markets opened. But this tends to be normal, pretty frequent.
This is why waiting for a CLOSE is of utmost importance. IF we CLOSE here, last night's thinking is NO MORE and the best plan of action is to WAIT.
TVC:TNX
Interest Rates NOT showing cuts...Let's keep looking at #InterestRates. Gives us an idea of what the Fed may do.
The 1 & 2 Year are still under their RESISTANCE level. Struggling a bit, but not breaking down. Trend is still there, weak though.
10 Yr looks like it wants to break the resistance zone.
30 YR looks like it's gone. Does not look like it wants to retrace at the moment.
#FederalReserve TVC:TNX
CRE & Small Banks coincide with each otherSmall banks account for about 70% of #commercialrealestate.
Small #banks are considered those with assets less than $10B.
We've been bearish CRE for a long time. We believe that this sector will likely not get better anytime soon.
#interestrates are still holding fairly strong. They are at banking crisis levels or higher.
TVC:TNX
Treasury Yields look ripe for further movesCurrent state of the short and long term #Yield.
The 1Yr is underperforming against the 2Yr yield. However, it looks like it wants to push higher.
10Yr vs 30Yr
The 10Yr is performing lil better than 30 but.......
The 30Yr has a BULLISH short term crossing over longer term moving avg, RSI also looks strong. IMO yields are looking good. Seems like there is still treasury selling pressure.