US30Y: Weekly H&SMajor Pattern: weekly Head & Shoulders
Anticipatory Pattern: Daily Pennant
Entry 1 on 3 Feb, stop loss on same day low
Entry 2 on 4 Feb, stop loss on same day low
Both trailing stop on Neckline
US30Y trade ideas
30y US BondsThe real question is, What sort of human events will be occurring that will fall around the time these rates are sub 1%? Elliot waves will never break their natural guidelines but often have coinciding jolts on live market data - Human events only psychologically contribute to these visual happenings on a chart made by a immense collective of decisions.
Given this count is close to correct, at the true end of this pattern we should expect some sort of % increase higher than where we are now
Is the yield curve really flattening?One might not think so, what with rates across the board jumping over the past several sessions. Adventurous traders could send a canary down the coal mine by shorting the receding 30-year here with a tight stop. An adventurous spread would add the still-advancing 2-year long.
The start of a long train wreakSo in conclusion, with the merals issue, supply issue, housing issue, inflation issue, investors heads in the sand issue, tech issue, incompetent leaders (all of them) issue and FED issue. This chart being a fraction of a fraction of a percent from inversion in 10-7 and already inverted in 30-20 makes more sense then the random PPT rally an hour before close today.
The trajectory in my honest opinion is downward for markets and the economy and inversions in the bond market. It appears the bonds are signaling a new black swan, this we will have to wait and see (reference .com, 08, 2014 and the pandemic for more)
There will always be gains and plenty of ways of making money during this downturn, always is. Nothing goes straight up or down without the inverse being true too. I am calling for a missive recession, tho this is just my opinion.
Let me know what you think? Can the FED save the day? Do you see a recession? I want to hear your thoughts below.
The start of a long trainNote: FEEVRWS is only meant to be a analysis and early warning system, and is in no way a substitute for your regular work. Please do your own due diligence and if needed, consult a trusted professional.
Today we will be looking at economic correlations and why bonds are moving the way they are.
As of right now the 10y and 7y are a quarter of a quarter of a quarter of a percent away from inverting and a inversion percent in the 30y to 20y is as much currently. 30y to 20y is already inverted. There are MANY reasons why and this is not so simple. Bonds are selling off across the board with only the 1mo remaining the same. Tho today seems to be about flat, the trend continues.
Housing, rate hikes, savings, inflation, liquidity, fomo speculation and foriagn investments are all tied to this and as a result the analysis will continue with other charts produced today
Another monumental momentNote: FEEVRWS is only meant to be a analysis and early warning system, and is in no way a substitute for your regular work. Please do your own due diligence and if needed, consult a trusted professional.
Before I get into this I urge everyone who sees this chart to back track to the .com bubble on this chart, then move up to 08, then check out pre lock downs.
With that out of the way, lets get into the FEEVR Analysis!
As mentioned above you should look at the historical data provided on this bonds chart. Today and over the weekend we saw the 30yr-20yr invert. This is bad for a number of reasons but mostly having to do with debt and inflation. as stated previously, the inversion marks the start of what can only be assumed as a flee from 'safe haven assets'. This is bad because bonds as a percent, tightening, has historically preluded some of the biggest economic and market wide black swans. Looking at the bond market it is repeating this trend and only seems to be starting which would make me assume through an educated guess that we are about 1 1/2 to 2yrs out from another major black swan, market altering event. Please, please, please be careful. We can time this and there is sure to be lots of money made during this time, just DONT be the last one to the exit.
I am currently working on a analysis on the Comms sector of the S&P. That will be out tomorrow. Ic alle dit, telecommunications is rocking and internet is failing. I have identified manipulation in this sector on RRG and now I am just trying to nail it down on the charts here for you all to see.
Happy monday everyone!
US30YEARS-W1/D1-PULLBACK HOLD TOO !WEEKLY (W1)
Last week price action triggered three important information :
1) a pullback followed by a nice recovery
2) a weekly closing for the first time just above the clouds
but...
3) an hanging man pattern (usually "bearish"" ) and which should be validated or invalidated by the next weekly candle !
The 50 % Fibonacci retracement ƒ 2.0890 % has been filled.
For the upcoming week, watch the clouds area which was the former resistance and which became now the new support zone; have also a look
at the former downtrend line resistance, currently @ 2.00% ahead of the ongoing uptrend line support around 1.88 % which is also by the way
the weekly clouds bottom level !
On the upside, a successful capacity to hold above the weekly clouds would open the door for higher levels towards the 61.8% Fib ret @ 2.4140% which
was the former congestion top (2.41%-2.51%) reached in March 2021
DAILY (D1)
Nice pullback which hold and a long white candle (bullish engulfing pattern) triggered on last Friday with a closing level roughly at the top of the day; nevertheless, as for the 10 years,
there is also a small bearish divergence on the RSI and the price action over the coming session (s) should be monitored very closely to check the validation of invalidation of this important information.
As for the weekly picture, a daily closing below the 2.00 % area should also be seen as a warning signal for a potential trend reversal.
On the upside, a breakout, on a daily closing basis, of the 2.1770 %, (former high of october 8th 2021) would also confirm further upside in the cards towards the 61.8% Fib ret @ 2.41% mentioned in the weekly view.
Ironman8848 & Jean-Pierre Burki
Bonds dont like the clown showThe selling in bonds continues as inflation continues on. Wings in my area are almost $10/lb, highest i have seen this in my life (only 28 tho). Most of the time I check to see if there is any short term bond buying, this time however, short term bonds are selling too. It would seem that investors are spooked, Investors really have no where to run at this point. Crypto winter is here, Stocks did great today but those gains are no longer viable with a hawkish fed, homes are skyrocketing but people are already warning of a top, businesses have a labor shortage and with inflation it's obvious investors do not see US debt as a safe haven anymore. At least for now. I will keep you all updated. Hope you all have your popcorn at the ready.
A clear sign of something massiveNot much to say here. In my honest opinion, Bonds are on watch. We could very clearly see an inversion here. Especially if the Fed raises rate or even enters QT.
Avery clear signelHello!
I have been away for over a year now. I'm sorry for my absence. I have been working on a new business venture. I now have more time on my hands to produce charts again! With that said.
We are facing here a very clear inversion in bonds as the bond market sees buying and selling. Keep an eye on that as the market is pricing in a rate hike in my honest opinion.
Bitcoin, Treasuries, USD Retesting, All Telling Same StoryWhatever your opinion of these assets, they're all behaving in a fairly similar fashion, and they all have been behaving somewhat similarly over the last 3 years.
No surprise, bitcoin and foreign currencies ten to outperform when financial conditions are loose and loosening. The vice versa is likely true as financial conditions tighten.
Interestingly, if you pull up the charts on an individual basis, they all are retesting flags on a technical level. That doesn't mean they won't break back up and rally, but all three showing the same sign seems to add more weight behind likelihood that markets are in for a break upward in real rates and reduced liquidity / financial conditions.
US30Y/US05Y -ready for break out1 diamond formation at the bottom
w-d-4h
sign of normalization on bond markets will prompt quick-shifting on other asset classes
DXY-up
BTC, US100, US500 -down
US Government Bonds 30YR Yeld (US30Y)A FED taper is bullish for bonds. Since 2002, there's nearly a 90% correlation between the price movement of stocks and bonds. On 30's the key level of support is at 1.825%. A long bond position right now is a long VOL position. You are betting on weaker global growth and inflation expectations along with the potential for a major risk-off event that would trigger a surge in volatility.
US 30 year bond yields vs Growth - Value RatioUS 30 year bond yields vs Growth - Value Ratio ... maybe a pause for growth by beginning of 2022 ... Value will outperform when long term yields rise
US 30 YEARS - W1 - CLOUDS BROKEN !!!Last week price action triggered, as for the US 10 years, a long black candle which in this case also broke the weekly bottom clouds
support level @ 1.85.
The US 30 years is currently on an ongoing downtrend channel, very close to the 50 % Fibonacci retracement @ 1.6130 (0.71-2.5160); RSI below 50 @ 34.04.
Watch closely price ongoing price action and monitor closely the Lagging line which for the time being, after having successively broken the Mid Bollinger Band and the Kijun-Sen is
still above the clouds !!!
A failure, for the Lagging line to close on the next weekly closing basis above the clouds would add further pressure to the downside in putting the focus for lower levels towards the next
significant support area around 1.40% which is also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
CONCLUSION :
As for the US 10 years, watch and monitor closely price action on a daily and intraday basis to detect early reversal signal (s) whihc for the time being should be seen as a corrective move in broad ongoing (yield) bearish trend.
Ironman8848
Macro - RecessionIdea for Macro:
- I'm of the opinion that Fed has already made a policy mistake.
- Recession has already begun, as per my September 29 idea and now confirmed by consumer sentiment.
- Likely the nominal yield falls below 1.000 again, and yield curve to invert once more.
GLHF
- DPT
Yield Curve & spreadsJust a screen shot for later review.
Watching 2's and 5's catch up to 10's and 30's.
Watch German & Japanese 10yr's for strength and/or weakness.
I'm a scalper following context, nothing more.
Trad-Fi's 40 Year Strong Chart of Truth 📉💡🧙🏻♀️Readers familiar with traditional financial world
will recognise the generational downtrend of
every interest rate (inverse of Bond prices) charts.
US 30 Year Bond Rates are set to go near zero before
the immortal rate Bear is final through.
TVC:US30
TVC:US30Y
NASDAQ:TLT
CBOT:UB1!
Yields can rise short term, but long term trend is lowerOver-indebtedness is deflationary.
US30Y will be going to 0.
US 5-30 Yield CurveI expected the 1.145 area to act as a good resistance level, but the extend of yesrdays pullback was something I did not see coming. Let's see what CPI numbers do before throwing in the towel
US30Y - Elliot Wave CountAs you can see , this count is for US30Y currently on a monthly basis
As of now a possibility of wave (iii) of wave 3 is to occur for a target 2.939
This count will be valid only if 1.780 is held whether wave 3 is extended or not
The Great Yield Beast of 2021Mind the right fang! If it bears its teeth further upwars, then GRAAAAAAAAAAAR
