45.09 by first week of junThis channel is not providing individualized trading or investment advice, nor is it a banking service, brokerage service, trading service, investment service or money management service
VIX trade ideas
$VIX target $88-103TVC:VIX looks to be bottoming here and I think the next move higher is going to be the big one I've been waiting for.
We did well last month catching that move into April 7th via UVXY calls. I started buying calls again April 24th for 5/30 - 6/20 and have continued buying as VIX has declined.
Now the chart is finally looking like it's bottoming and I'm getting short signals on a lot of the charts -- therefore my conviction is growing that we're close to a reversal here.
I think this move will be a move that happens once every 10+ years and the gains have the potential to be massive if it happens.
Let's see if it plays out.
Weekly Volatility Snapshot Volatility, as measured by standard deviation, quantifies market elasticity and provides a level of probability and precision to trade within, that humbles us all.
Last week, the TVC:VIX opened above $21.00 and closed just under $19.00 for a near flat week even for all the eventful action that took place. That being once again, tariff related news with the court of international trade overriding Trump's liberation day, only to have the administration appeal, and the tariffs to be reinstated the following day.
This provided for quite a volatile move, mostly in after hours with everything closing strong to end the month.
As we look towards June starting with next week, just about all indices I track and the magnificent seven are showing near term trending volatility contracting under stated IV, as IV is melting across the board. Notable mention to NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:IBIT and CBOE:BITX for all entering the week with great IV value, now let's compare them to their respective trending bi-weekly values to observe what is being predicted to what is happening with near term trending volatility.
NASDAQ:NVDA at a 6% IVp enters the week with an IV of 39.04% -- HV10 (31.70%) is 81% strength of current IV and resonating under monthly values. When you see a large move, that being from the earnings report last week, you will see a massive IV melt to save premium against the PA move due to the beats or misses. With that said, bi-weekly values are just off yearly lows (25.74%) as IV chases it down and i see the underlying as 94.03% coiled for a volatility swing.
NASDAQ:MSFT at a 17% IVp enters the week with an IV of 18.99% -- HV10 (14.55%) is 77% strength of current IV and resonating deeply under monthly values. Bi-weekly yearly lows of 8.56% reflect a coiling of 90.03% at current values.
With both of these, I am looking for a volatility bounce, and regression back to quarterly means. That's where the real fun is and if played right provide excellent opportunity. For further discussion around BITSTAMP:BTCUSD within the funds NASDAQ:IBIT and CBOE:BITX look for my more dedicated posts this weekend.
For those interested in volatility analysis and the application of weighted HV ranges to IV, I encourage you to BOOST and share this post, leave a comment, or follow me to join me on this journey.
We will weekly analyze our ranges under the year-to-date VIX chart and engage in discussions as people please. So hop on board and come along for the ride!
Still long on this playThis channel is not providing individualized trading or investment advice, nor is it a banking service, brokerage service, trading service, investment service or money management service
On the daily level, we see a 14% risk on the upside, whereas on the downside the risk factor comes in at 3.05% for now. From a risk perspective, resistance on a closing basis stands at 2106, yet the risk on the downside begins at 1780.
24.9This channel is not providing individualized trading or investment advice, nor is it a banking service, brokerage service, trading service, investment service or money management service
VIX US100 CFD SP CFDIn case of an upward movement in the Vix fear index, a correction may come from the US 100 22.153 SP500 CFD 6110 Level. In possible pullbacks, take profit can be made from 8 ema according to your risk understanding.
Quiet before the storm: $VIX eerily at low levels. TVC:VIX since the unusual April spike to 60 has been making new lows. It is surprisingly coincidental that the S&P 500 bottomed at 4900 @ which is 0.618 Fib retracement level if we chart the Fib level form the August 2024 spike to the lows of the Nov 2024. Since Feb 2025 highs have come down to 17. With VIX at 17 and SP:SPX almost 6000 which is 2.5% away from Feb 2025 ATH. And the disturbing part is that the TVC:VIX is very quietly going lower.
So how does the future look like. VIX can go down to the lows of 16 before it breaks down below the upward sloping. This can result in violent reversal. The reversal can result in that TVC:VIX spikes to levels of 24 and next level 32. TVC:VIX above 32 is always a very good opportunity to buy $SPX. There you have my suggestion for the pair trade.
Verdict : TVC:VIX can spike to 24 or 32 if the reversal trade takes hold. Go long SP:SPX with TVC:VIX @ 32.
The Calm Before the StormAs of June 2, 2025, the CBOE Volatility Index ( TVC:VIX ) is trading at 18.89, showing a 1.72% increase from the previous close . This uptick suggests that market participants are beginning to price in heightened uncertainty.
Technical Patterns: TVC:VIX has been forming a base around the 18–19 level. A sustained move above 20 could signal a significant breakout, potentially leading to a rapid escalation in volatility.
Market Catalysts:
Trade Tensions: Escalating trade disputes, particularly between the U.S. and China, are contributing to market jitters.
Federal Reserve Stance: The Fed maintains a cautious approach, with interest rates holding steady amid concerns over inflation and economic growth.
Upcoming Economic Data: Anticipated releases, including employment and inflation reports, could introduce additional volatility.
The current market environment, characterized by geopolitical tensions and cautious monetary policy, sets the stage for increased volatility. Traders should monitor TVC:VIX closely, as a breakout could present opportunities for strategic positioning.
Weekly Volatility SnapshotVolatility, expressed through standard deviation, quantifies market elasticity and presents a level of probability and precision that humbles us all.
In my analysis, I track trending volatility to discern historical patterns (HV) and utilize them to anticipate future outcomes (IV). This weighted indicator provides a comprehensive and accurate range for observation.
When trending historical volatility expands or contracts around implied volatility, price action can be interpreted as positively or negatively compounded within the predicted implied range.
I measure this concept using the ‘strength’ of IV and calculate my implied range based on the current market elasticity. This system is adaptable to any IV condition, as it allows for a fair assessment of market movements and potential outcomes.
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Last week, volatility increased slightly as bi-weekly trends picked up over monthly values -- the same near term trends with the major indices show strength within 8% of IV into this next week.
One thing to note: NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:NVDA and NASDAQ:TSLA all show near term contraction under stated IV within the magnificent 7 while the rest show shorter term volatility as expansive.
What do you think the CBOE:VIX will do this next week?
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For those interested in volatility analysis and the application of my system using weighted HV ranges to IV, I encourage you to BOOST and share this post, leave a comment, or follow me to join me on this journey!
We will weekly analyze our ranges under the VIX and engage in discussions.
VIX | Nov 19, 2025 Call Options | Strike $21TVC:VIX , the great "fear" index, has two looming price gaps on the daily chart. Every gap has always been filled in the history of the $TVC:VIX. Given the 90-day tariff pauses and forever world turmoil, there will (undoubtedly), be a spike in the TVC:VIX to close these open gaps. It's just a matter of timing... I've chosen to go 6 months out on the option date (November 19, 2025) as a hedge to my portfolio ($3.45 per contract). I plan to add more contracts if the TVC:VIX dips into the 13-14 area, too.
I truly dislike timing the market, but such a position could be a nice 3x gainer of the TVC:VIX spikes to $36 in short time. Or... totally worthless if we are in a constant bullish market for the next 6 months.
Time will tell.
VIX SPY500 forecast until end of June 2025VIX S&P500 Index is in reversal. Downward movement has ended. Uptrend is starting now. All the way until end of June 2025 VIX will grow and steadily and surely.
Bottom is now at 18.18 and possible interim top is at 36.54
This view is supported by my forecast of S&P500 for June 2025.
For more updates on 1D chart click social media links in my profile.
We need to close above 15.40 on weeklyThis channel is not providing individualized trading or investment advice, nor is it a banking service, brokerage service, trading service, investment service or money management service
By breaking the downtrend, it seems that crypto will reach its dThis indicator is a guide for risky assets. I imagine such a channel. Given the positive gap, I think the channel will be broken and this failure will lead to a decline in risky assets like crypto.
Weekly Volatility SnapshotVolatility, expressed through standard deviation, quantifies market elasticity and presents a level of probability and precision that humbles us all.
In my analysis, I track trending volatility to discern historical patterns (HV) and utilize them to anticipate future outcomes (IV). This weighted indicator provides a comprehensive and accurate range for observation.
When trending historical volatility expands or contracts around implied volatility, price action can be interpreted as positively or negatively compounded within the predicted implied range.
I measure this concept using the ‘strength’ of IV and calculate my implied range based on the current market elasticity. This system is adaptable to any IV condition, as it allows for a fair assessment of market movements and potential outcomes.
What’s most important about what I track in this is that as trending markets contract, they coil, and in turn violently release in a regression back to our quarterly trending means.
This to me, is what it is all about.
For those interested in volatility analysis and the application of weighted HV ranges to IV, I encourage you to BOOST and share this post, leave a comment, or follow me to join us on this journey.
We will weekly analyze our ranges under the VIX and engage in discussions. So come along for the ride!
TVC:VIX
VIX | Stock Market Correction IncomingVIX is the ticker symbol and the popular name for the Chicago Board Options Exchange's CBOE Volatility Index, a popular measure of the stock market's expectation of volatility based on S&P 500 index options. It is calculated and disseminated on a real-time basis by the CBOE, and is often referred to as the fear index or fear gauge.
The VIX traces its origin to the financial economics research of Menachem Brenner and Dan Galai. In a series of papers beginning in 1989, Brenner and Galai proposed the creation of a series of volatility indices, beginning with an index on stock market volatility, and moving to interest rate and foreign exchange rate volatility.
Long Trade Setup – VIX (30-Min Chart)!📈
🔹 Pattern: Falling Wedge Breakout
🔹 Entry: $18.11 (Breakout confirmation)
🔹 Target: $19.07 (Next resistance zone)
🔹 Stop-Loss: Just below $18.00
🔹 Risk-Reward: Favorable upside with breakout momentum
🔥 Caption Idea (with curiosity + clarity):
VIX breakout loading? Volatility waking up!
Falling wedge breaks – is fear rising again?
Best Hashtags:
#VIX #VolatilityIndex #BreakoutTrade #FallingWedge #StockMarketAnalysis #LongTrade #TechnicalAnalysis
Watch the weekly close above 19.10, 18.04, 15.40This channel is not providing individualized trading or investment advice, nor is it a banking service, brokerage service, trading service, investment service or money management service
$VIX: Where does VIX go from here? Happy Tuesday. A new week, new market KPIs to look at. Since the ‘Liberation Day’ VIX spike to 50 it has been a bear market for VIX and has been going down since then. Since then, the S&P had more than 11 day of positive close for the day. This is which we would expect when VIX is making new lower highs and lower lows. But where does the VIX go from here?
It has been a remarkable trade to buy the indexes NASDAQ:QQQ and SP:SPX when the TVC:VIX is at or above 30. And then unwinding the trade when TVC:VIX touches 15. We have more than 10 days of positive closes in SP:SPX and the TVC:VIX is at 17. So we might have some more positive return in the near term. And then we rinse and repeat the same trade. Sell the indices when TVC:VIX touches 15 or lower band of this upward sloping channel.
Verdict: Stay long until TVC:VIX @ 15. Unwind trade and then wait for TVC:VIX @ 30.
VIX at Support: Are Stocks and Bitcoin in Trouble?The VIX Chart Breakdown
I’m looking at a 4-hour VIX chart spanning late 2022 to today, May 12, 2025. The VIX is currently sitting at 20.41, right at a key support level within a long-term curved channel (around 20). Earlier this year, we saw a massive spike to 54, signaling major market fear, but it’s since cooled off. Historically, when the VIX hits this support and reverses upward, volatility tends to rise, which often means trouble for risk assets like stocks and crypto.
What Happens If the VIX Reverses?
The VIX has a strong inverse relationship with the S&P 500—when the VIX goes up, stocks typically go down as fear creeps into the market. We’ve seen this play out before: that spike to 54 earlier this year coincided with a rough patch for the S&P 500. If the VIX bounces from its current support at 20 and climbs above 28-30, we could see renewed pressure on stocks in the short term.
What Should You Watch For?
VIX Levels: If the VIX breaks above 28-30, expect increased market stress, which could drag stocks and Bitcoin lower.
Stocks: The S&P 500 may face a short-term pullback if volatility spikes, but historical patterns show these dips often lead to market bottoms, followed by recoveries.
Bitcoin: Despite today’s dump, long-term forecasts remain bullish, with projections of $100,481 to $136,438 by the end of 2025, driven by ETF inflows and adoption. A VIX spike might create a buying opportunity if you’re a long-term holder.
The Bottom Line
Right now, the VIX at 20.41 isn’t screaming danger, but a reversal from this support could bring short-term pain for stocks and Bitcoin. Keep an eye on the VIX—if it starts climbing, brace for volatility. That said, these spikes often set the stage for recoveries, so don’t panic. For Bitcoin, today’s dump hurts, but the long-term outlook is still strong. Stay informed, manage your risk, and let’s see how this plays out!
Move until 45.70This channel is not providing individualized trading or investment advice, nor is it a banking service, brokerage service, trading service, investment service or money management service.
VIX looks close to jumping up.MACD on daily looking to reverse, RSI has been in oversold territory, this is just on a daily though so not necessarily a guaranteed reversal but it seems to be getting support.
Decoding the VIX Crab Head and Shoulders.The formation of the butterfly pattern mentioned in the previous idea is quite intriguing! As we discussed before, the VIX index level of 28-29 is as a crucial threshold for our Crab strategy.
Currently, we are witnessing the development of a head and shoulders pattern within this butterfly formation, which adds an exciting layer to our analysis.
It's fascinating to see how these technical indicators can guide our trading decisions, and I hope you're as enthusiastic about this potential opportunity as I am! Let's keep an eye on these patterns and see how they unfold in the coming days.
