UAHUSD trade ideas
USDUAH Ukranian Hryvnia to 26.7Hryvnia is forming an inverse head and shoulders and is heading to the neckline at 25, where there is a lot of resistance. But a break above 25 will send the price to the inverse H&S target at 26.7. This will be around October which will be reasonable because the Hryvnia historically weakens in winter.
Price is above the cloud for the first time since 2018, which is a significant change in trend.
UAHUSDfirst Target is reached , we gonna go to next Target.... but maybe we have pullback to trend and after go to the other target.....
Time for another UAH crisisI live in Ukraine and look at the chart regularly, I have decided to share my thoughts on USD/UAH pair
Fundamental Analysis
Ukraine's economy keep on shrinking and our country must pay USD debts to IMF and so on. My country will lose gas transit money, as soon as south stream and nord stream are fully launched and that's a big hit to our economy.
Recently UAH had been strengthening as we had presidential campaign, now running a parliament campaign, which is coming to an end. Politicians spent millions of their USD, converting it to UAH spending on their campaign, so they could go through to a parliament. As it is coming to a finish line, I'am looking bullish on USD and bearish on UAH!
If we look at history on the graph (vertical lines), after government election's UAH only suffered! Especially last election
Technical analysis is on the graph. 5th wave is at 41.77 or even 47 UAH per USD
I really don't want that to happen to my local currency, as it will only mean everyone in my country including me will earn less and have another crisis! So I hope it doesn't happen, but that's my view
PS
Vertical Lines
Black lines - president election
Red lines - parliament election (forgot to mention 2014 election)
Blue Line - world crisis
My twitter @CryptoWolfy7
Tweets are my opinions, not financial advice
USDUAH - Inflation in UkraineUSDUAH -either the economy improves in Ukraine and the dollar falls
or the second option from this level is a new growth cycle;
In Ukraine, changes in monetary circulation, which will take place in the near future.
There will be a new banknote 1000UAH
1,2,5 kopecks will be gone from use already tomorrow
USD UAH short analysisThe National Bank of Ukraine lowered its benchmark interest rate by 50 bps to 17 percent on July 18th of 2019, surprising markets who expected a 25bps reduction. It was the second rate cut this year, bringing borrowing costs to its lowest since June of 2018 and in line with reaching inflation target of 5%. Now price is 25.40 against USD. pattern wedge, which forecasts next downtrend of Hryvna
Way for Hryvna on the HighwayIt seems the season will start soon, not much of grow, but anyway we will see.
For educational purposes only.
USDUAH | Still on WatchlistThe hryvnia (UAH) continues to trade sideways while in consolidation in the "no trade zone." Recently, the currency strengthened against the dollar (USD) and initially it looked like an opportunity to go long on the USD. However, the weekly EMA50 (which historically has provided support for the USD) turned into resistance, broke the 3 year trendline, and now we are heading toward the 61.8 Fibo. Above the 61.8 Fibo the USD is still bullish. Below the 61.8 Fibo we have a bit more neutrality with support close at the weekly EMA200 (good place to hedge UAH and/or go long USD).
USDUAH | Added to WatchlistUkraine's Hryvnia looks poised for a reversal to the downside on the weekly and lower timeframes against the dollar. There could be a 5-8% trade in here.
1) RSI is currently indicating a trend change.
2) Price action is currently indicating a trend change
3) Volume profile is quite high which could indicate traders are soaking up USD by trading in their UAH as the latter appreciated by nearly 7% in the last 12 months.
PS. Ukraine had an election in April that resulted in regime change (old banking elites are recapturing the government). The country has the highest NPL in the world and a very precarious situation is stirring in the Ukrainian banking system involving the largest bank by assets, Privatbank which was nationalized in 2017. This may result in NPL issues resurfacing with changes in the banking system, the restitution of Privatbank to former owners, or just some kind of accounting rule or bank reserve requirement changing the outlook for the Hryvnia. Sovereign credit issues may also pop up involving the IMF, so this pair could get very interesting to trade.
UAH MOONINGAfter Chocolate King has lost few boates in Azov Sea UAH started rising. That's my satirical analysis of UAH Chart.
Despite the news and politic forecasts USD/UAH is NOT going UPThe price have strong resistance at ±28.5 ,every time when the price reach this target it goes down immediately.
We see clear hidden divergence with MACD indicator. USD/UAH going down to 26 at least. Stoploss you can put at 29 usd/uah. In case of rise higher 2 9 (with massive volume only) and close weekly candle above this price, I will update trade idea.
Good Luck
UAHUSDUkrainian hryvnia demonstrated big gains against USD from late January to mid march.
Surge was very fast. the fastest since UAHUSD recovered from biggest fall in early 2015.
So I appreciate it as an active wave.
I expect UAHUSD to resume its uptrend after this correction is completed.
A possible movement of UAH within the next two yearsTaking into account the fact that the world economy will suffer in a few years I expect some kind of this movement to appear on USD/UAH . There are a lot of variants since Elliott's Wave Theory is just a theory , but this one is my main one.
Channels in USD/UAHEveryone is expecting UAH trades higher. Buy majority cant win 'cause majority always lose.
Long USDUAH, GeopoliticsDue to the potential explosive situation in Syria, Russia might come back to haunt the Ukranians and take more territory.
On the technical side of things we see a possible rejection of the Bearish MACD crossover on the Daily chart.
To be watched, this might surge.
