OIL breaking out of nearly year long downtrendBrent crude TVC:UKOIL is breaking out of the downtrend that started in April 2024.
UKOIL trade ideas
Weekly price prediction: $71.49 (Min) and $77.37 (Max).Projected Price Range
The anticipated weekly price range for Brent Crude Oil is expected to fluctuate between $71.49 (Min) and $77.37 (Max).
Contended Price Levels
$74.50 – Point of Control (POC) – potential support
$73.22 - $71.49 – High Volume Node (HVN) – potential support
$77.32 - $81.62 – Low Volume Node (LVN) – potential resistance
Technical Analysis
Fibonacci Retracement & Price Movement:
The price reached the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level in mid-January before retracing.
This level has demonstrated consistent horizontal price movement over the past six months, indicating it as a key reference point.
Volume Profile Analysis:
High Volume Node (HVN): Found between $73.22 and $71.49, indicating strong liquidity and potential support.
Low Volume Node (LVN): Between $77.32 and $81.62, which could lead to rapid price spikes if the price enters this zone.
MACD and Stochastic RSI:
Stochastic RSI (Bottom Indicator): Has shown low bearish momentum over the last two weeks and appears poised for an upward crossover, signalling potential price growth.
MACD (Top Indicator): Remains in the negative region, with a few weeks left before a possible crossover, implying continued caution for bullish sentiment.
Additional Factors
Support & Resistance Considerations:
Point of Control (POC) and HVN are close to the current price, reinforcing these as key support zones.
The price is currently resting on a previous resistance level that has now turned into support.
The black rectangle above the price highlights the LVN region, where rapid price movements could occur.
The white rectangle represents a large support zone, which may contribute to horizontal price movement.
Geopolitical & Market Sentiment:
As always, geopolitical events could significantly impact price fluctuations, and traders should remain alert to any market-moving developments.
Conclusion
Brent Crude Oil prices for the upcoming week are likely to remain within the projected range, given the strong support levels in the current price zone. However, any breakout downward could be swift, while an upward breakout could be accelerated due to the LVN region.
"UKOILSPOT / BRENT Crude Oil" Energy Market Bearish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰
Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the "UKOILSPOT / BRENT Crude Oil" Energy market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long & Short entry. 👀 Be wealthy and safe trade 💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : You can enter a Bull or Bear trade at any point after the breakout.
Buy entry above 77.500
Sell Entry below 75.500
Stop Loss 🛑: Using the 2H period, the recent / nearest Pullbacks.
Goal 🎯: Bullish Robbers TP 81.500 (or) Escape Before the Target
Bearish Robbers TP 72.500 (or) Escape Before the Target
📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, Sentimental Outlook:
The "UKOILSPOT / BRENT Crude Oil" Energy market is expected to move in a bearish direction, driven by several key factors.
🟠Macroeconomic Factors:
1. Global Economic Slowdown: A slowdown in global economic growth, particularly in China, may decrease demand for crude oil, putting downward pressure on prices.
2. US-China Trade Tensions: Escalating trade tensions between the US and China may lead to a decline in global economic growth, negatively impacting oil demand.
3. Strong US Dollar: A strong US dollar may make crude oil more expensive for foreign buyers, reducing demand and putting downward pressure on prices.
🔴Fundamental Factors:
1. Increasing US Shale Oil Production: Rising US shale oil production may lead to a surplus in global oil supply, putting downward pressure on prices.
2. High Oil Inventory Levels: Elevated oil inventory levels in the US and other countries may indicate a surplus in global oil supply, negatively impacting prices.
3. OPEC+ Compliance Issues: Non-compliance by OPEC+ members with production cuts may lead to a surplus in global oil supply, putting downward pressure on prices.
🟢Trader/Market Sentimental Analysis:
1. Bearish Trader Sentiment: The CoT report shows that speculative traders are net short crude oil, indicating a bearish sentiment.
2. Market Sentiment: The market sentiment is bearish, with many analysts expecting crude oil prices to decline due to the supply surplus.
3. Technical Analysis: The technical analysis shows that crude oil is in a downtrend, with a bearish breakdown below the $70 level.
🟡Sentimental Outlook:
Bearish Sentiment: 55%
Bullish Sentiment: 30%
Neutral Sentiment: 15%
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
🚨Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions.
🚨Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly.
💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀
I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🫂
Long1.The price has reached the support level.
2.The price is boucing at the support level, forming a double bootom.
3.The price has reached the Fibo 0.718 level.
4.The correction of the larger timeframe bullish movement is coming to an end.
BRENT - Intraday forecast, Technical Analysis & Trading IdeasMidterm forecast:
While the price is above the support 68.485, beginning of uptrend is expected.
We make sure when the resistance at 81.651 breaks.
If the support at 68.485 is broken, the short-term forecast -beginning of uptrend- will be invalid.
Technical analysis:
A peak is formed in daily chart at 81.735 on 01/15/2025, so more losses to support(s) 73.868, 71.698, 70.505 and minimum to Major Support (68.485) is expected.
Take Profits:
75.270
77.558
79.049
81.651
84.161
87.271
91.613
95.108
98.908
103.260
106.431
115.785
123.265
131.000
__________________________________________
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ForecastCity Support Team
Crude Oil Price Hits New 2025 LowCrude Oil Price Hits New 2025 Low
As shown on the XBR/USD chart, the price of Brent crude oil dropped to $73.92 yesterday:
→ this marks a new low for 2025;
→ the decline since 15 January exceeds 9%.
Bearish sentiment is being driven by Trump's policies. According to Reuters, the Brent crude price is falling due to:
→ US President Donald Trump’s renewed trade war with China;
→ threats of tariff hikes for other countries;
→ high oil inventory levels in the US;
→ Trump’s promise yesterday to increase US oil production.
Additionally, the US Treasury Department announced yesterday that it was imposing new sanctions on several individuals and tankers involved in delivering millions of barrels of Iranian crude oil to China each year, adding to the volatility of Brent crude prices.
Could the Brent crude price continue to fall?
From a technical analysis perspective of the XBR/USD chart, we can see that the price has dropped to a key support level around $75 per barrel. At this level, bulls had the upper hand, managing to break a major resistance line at the end of 2024. It is possible that bulls remain strong in this price range, and the long lower wick on the candlestick—marked with a blue arrow—supports this idea.
On the other hand, bears appear to be gradually gaining control at increasingly lower levels (as indicated by the red arrows):
→ the $77 level acted as resistance when Brent crude prices moved in February;
→ the $75 level has now shifted from support to resistance.
Given these factors, it is reasonable to assume that supply and demand forces may balance each other out at current levels, leading to signs of consolidation in the Brent crude price chart.
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Wait1.Wait for Double bottom
to form
2.Alternatively, if the price breaks upwards and then retests, wait for the retest and enter a long position
3. If the price is testing the 0.786 level, it is likely to experience strong upward movement
Crude OIL $UKOIL Classic patternI've seen this pattern many times over the last 5 years on different instruments, and its working out to over 50%
The essence of this pattern is a classic triangle with horizontal support, most of the participants realize that we will break down, but not everyone believes that we will take liquidity off the top before going down.
An instrument like oil is quite trivial and it can fall without taking liquidity off the top.
But I want to share a few examples of my theory working out, where the upper resistance line is broken before the drop-down
Best regards EXCAVO
"BRENT / UK OIL SPOT" Energy Market Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰
Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the "BRENT / UK OIL SPOT" Energy market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Green Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Wait for the breakout (74.500) then make your move - Bearish profits await!"
however I advise placing Sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest high or low level should be in retest.
Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at 78.800 (swing Trade) Using the 4H period, the recent / nearest low or high level.
SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many orders you have to take.
Target 🎯: 71.000 (or) Escape Before the Target
Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Short side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰.
📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT, Sentimental Outlook:
"BRENT / UK OIL SPOT" Energy market is currently experiencing a Neutral trend (there is a higher chance for Bearish)., driven by several key factors.
🟠Corporate Traders:
Fundamental Analysis: Bullish, citing growing demand for oil and supply constraints.
Macro Economics: Bullish, expecting a global economic recovery to drive oil demand.
Sentimental Analysis: Bullish, with 58% of corporate traders holding long positions.
COT Report: Bullish, with corporate traders holding 100,219 long contracts.
🔴Investor Traders:
- Fundamental Analysis: Neutral, citing uncertainty around global oil demand and supply.
- Macro Economics: Neutral, expecting a slow global economic recovery to impact oil demand.
- Sentimental Analysis: Neutral, with 50% of investor traders holding long positions and 50% holding short positions.
- COT Report: Neutral, with investor traders holding 40,109 long contracts and 35,219 short contracts.
🟤Hedge Fund Traders:
- Fundamental Analysis: Bearish, citing rising US oil production and global supply concerns.
- Macro Economics: Bearish, expecting a global economic slowdown to impact oil demand.
- Sentimental Analysis: Bearish, with 60% of hedge fund traders holding short positions.
COT Report: Bearish, with hedge fund traders holding 80,109 short contracts.
🟢Institutional Traders:
- Fundamental Analysis: Bearish, citing rising US oil production and global supply concerns.
- Macro Economics: Bearish, expecting a global economic slowdown to impact oil demand.
- Sentimental Analysis: Bearish, with 62% of institutional traders holding short positions.
COT Report: Bearish, with institutional traders holding 120,000 short contracts.
🟡Overall Outlook:
- Bearish: 55%
- Bullish: 25%
- Neutral: 20%
Based on the comprehensive analysis, the outlook for Brent UKOIL Spot Commodity CFD is bearish, with a target price of around $62-$65 per barrel.
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
📌Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions.
📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly.
💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀
I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤗
Will Oil jump against Trump's requests?On a technical perspective, Oil could reverse from the current price and start to climb again targeting buyside, as we have seen a divergence between Brent and WTI. However, it looks like Brent is weaker and might not be able to validate higher prices.
Next week's OPEC meeting could clarify the direction, as I do not believe they will succumb to President Trump's requests of lowering Oil prices massively, and we could be looking for a volatile month.
Technical Analysis of Brent Crude Oil: Breakout Oppty*Current Market Context*
Brent Crude oil has recently exhibited a classic spring formation on the daily chart, indicating a potential reversal or continuation of the bullish trend. A spring is a price action pattern where the market briefly moves below a key support level (often a "manipulation" move by smart money) before reversing sharply higher. This is typically a sign of accumulation and a precursor to a strong upward move.
The price is currently at the Last Point of Support (LPS), which is a critical level where buyers step in to defend the price, confirming the strength of the trend. This makes the current price an attractive entry point for traders looking to capitalize on the potential upside.
---
#### *Key Levels and Zones*
1. *Current Price (LPS Zone)*:
- The LPS zone is acting as a strong support level, offering a low-risk entry point for traders. This is where buyers are expected to accumulate positions before the next leg up.
2. *Breakout Zone ($92-96)*:
- The $92-96 zone is a significant resistance area. A breakout above this zone would confirm the bullish momentum and open the door for a strong upward move.
3. *Target Zone ($102-115)*:
- Once the breakout occurs, the price is expected to rally toward the $102-115 zone. This is where traders can take partial profits or monitor for signs of a retracement.
4. *Retest of Breakout Zone*:
- After reaching the $102-115 zone, the price is likely to retrace and retest the $92-96 breakout zone. This retest is a critical level for breakout traders to enter, as it confirms the zone has flipped from resistance to support.
---
#### *Trading Strategy*
1. *For Aggressive Traders (Current Price Entry)*:
- Traders can enter at the current LPS zone, placing a stop-loss just below the recent swing low to manage risk.
- The initial target would be the $92-96 breakout zone, with a secondary target at $102-115.
2. *For Breakout Traders*:
- Wait for the price to decisively break above the $92-96 zone with strong volume and momentum.
- Enter on the retest of the $92-96 zone after the breakout, ensuring the zone now acts as support.
- Set a stop-loss below the breakout zone and aim for the $102-115 target zone.
3. *Long-Term Outlook*:
- Once the retest of the breakout zone is confirmed, the price is expected to rally significantly, potentially reaching 2-6x the current price over the medium to long term. This projection is based on the strength of the breakout and the overall bullish structure of the market.
---
#### *Chart Analysis*
- *Spring Formation*: The price recently dipped below a key support level (spring) but quickly reversed, indicating strong buying interest.
- *LPS Confirmation*: The current price is at the LPS, where buyers are stepping in, confirming the bullish bias.
- *Breakout Zone*: The $92-96 zone is a critical resistance level. A breakout here would signal the start of a strong upward trend.
- *Volume Analysis*: Increasing volume on the breakout and retest would further validate the bullish scenario.
---
#### *Risk Management*
- *Stop-Loss*: Place stop-loss orders below key support levels to limit downside risk.
- *Position Sizing*: Adjust position sizes based on risk tolerance and the distance to the stop-loss level.
- *Profit-Taking*: Take partial profits at the $92-96 and $102-115 zones, while letting a portion of the position run for the long-term target.
---
#### *Conclusion*
Brent Crude oil is currently at a pivotal point, with the price forming a spring and testing the LPS zone. This presents an excellent opportunity for traders to enter at a favorable price. For breakout traders, waiting for the price to cross the $92-96 zone and retest it as support would provide a high-probability entry point. The overall structure suggests a strong bullish trend, with the potential for significant upside in the coming weeks to months.
Always remember to manage risk effectively and adjust your strategy based on real-time market developments. Happy trading!
UKOIL Warning – Don’t Risk Your Money!⚠️ You're about to make a decision you might regret! The current trend is bearish, and prices are in consecutive lows, which means the risk is higher than expected! You could lose a lot if you rush into buying!
🔴 Avoid buying at this stage – the risks are too high! If you're not careful, you may face significant losses before you even realize it!
📉 Best potential buying areas:
✅ The 72 level: A strong support that has held in the past. But don’t even think about buying before clear signs of a reversal!
✅ Stop gambling blindly – wait for strong confirmation of a trend change before entering.
📊 Conditions for confirming a potential rise:
1️⃣ Break the 78.82 level.
2️⃣ Then break 82.50 to confirm strong buying momentum.
⚠️ Don’t rush! If you don’t wait for confirmation, you could face severe losses in your portfolio!
📲 Follow now to avoid loss! We’ll keep you updated with all the analyses and insights that could save you from making the wrong decisions!
#UKOIL #Oil #Investment #Trading #TechnicalAnalysis #Risk #Loss #Markets #TradingRecommendations #SuccessInTrading
UKOIL may come down still📊 Analyzing **UKOIL (Brent Crude Oil)** across multiple timeframes:
**22-day time frame**, **Weekly time frame**, **Daily time frame**, and **4-hour time frame**.
📉 UKOIL has risen to $75, but a pullback is expected, presenting a better entry opportunity around $72.
This zone aligns with key support, making it an ideal level to consider a position.
🔒 Stop Loss can be placed below the support zone for risk management.
🔍 We are using trend analysis and support/resistance levels to identify this setup.
Brent Crude Oil price action suggests a retracement before resuming momentum.
**Bullish View:** Entering near $72 could provide a better risk-reward ratio.
**Bearish View:** A break below $72 could lead to further downside pressure.
🌟 A strong formation is developing! Watch for confirmation before entering. 📉🔥
⚠️ **Note:** If UKOIL fails to hold $72, we may see further declines. Wait for a proper setup! ⚠️
🔔 **Be sure to follow the updated ideas for real-time insights!** 🔔
⏰ **Analysis Time:** Brent Crude Oil (UKOIL) across multiple timeframes.
⚖️ **Do not forget to set a Stop Loss** for risk management! Protect your capital! 🔒
💡 **Follow your trading plan; this is just my analysis. I’d love to see your thoughts in the comments!**
✅ **Don't forget to hit the 'Like' button** ✅ 🙏😊 & share it with your friends; thanks, and happy trading! 📉🔥
The Inevitable Descent of UKOILIn the shadow of a market that continues to revel in its own delusions, I find myself compelled to address the elephant in the room – or rather, the oil in the barrel that is UKOIL. We stand on the precipice of what I predict to be a significant correction, one that will see UKOIL prices plummeting to the region of $48 per barrel.
Why the Fall?
OPEC+'s decision to phase out additional output cuts by September 2025, announced in June last year, is a clear signal. The return of 2.2 million barrels per day to the market, should market dynamics permit, will flood an already saturated market. Despite the rhetoric of control, the reality is that OPEC+'s spare capacity, currently at 5.9 million barrels per day, limits any significant price increase. This, coupled with near-record production levels from non-OPEC countries like the United States, sets the stage for an oversupply scenario. The notion that demand will continue to grow unchecked is flawed. Global oil consumption growth is expected to slow dramatically from 2.3 million barrels per day in 2023 to 1.1 million in 2024, with similar levels in 2025. This deceleration is driven by multiple factors including the rise of electric vehicles, increasing efficiency in traditional vehicles, and a stuttering economic recovery in major markets like China. The market's current bullishness is more sentiment than substance. Indicators like the Stoch RSI currently at 77.9 suggest we are nearing overbought territory, a strong indication that a reversal could be imminent. This high reading, combined with the parabolic SAR signaling an upward trend now, might just be the last gasp before a significant correction.
The technical and fundamental analyses converge on a bearish outlook. Long Forecast anticipates Brent oil, which closely tracks UKOIL, to hover around $60-$65 by 2026 before a potential rebound. This, combined with other forecasts suggesting a further decline in demand, paints a picture not of a soft landing, but of a sharp descent. If we extrapolate current trends and market sentiment shifts, $48 is not just a possibility but a probable near-term floor.
Investors should consider reducing exposure to oil-related equities or hedge against the risk through diversification into non-correlated assets. For those with the stomach for risk, this scenario presents a unique opportunity to short UKOIL CFDs. In closing, let us not be swayed by the siren song of current market highs. The fundamentals, much like gravity, will eventually pull prices back to earth. Prepare for the storm, for it's not a matter of if, but when.
Horban Brothers.
Alex Kostenich
#004 Obvious Range BCOUSD SellOk, It isn't much of a range. But based on previous price movements, price has consistently came down and went beyond the previous lows.
I am treating this as an Obvious Range.
1R SL to 0.4R TP.
I think if I want to trade during the New York Session, I have to trade pairs that has USD in it.
Will come back at 2am SGT or so.
Ok.
2254SGT 28012025
Swing Shorts on USOILSo I have been cautiously taking daily shorts on CAPITALCOM:OIL_BRENT due to the recent dip in the market and the mild uncertainty. USOIL has been on a steady beautiful downtrend, took about two shorts yesterday and my projection is we'll continue in a downtrend until we see a shift in the market structure, or probably till Friday when the Fed announces the interest rates.
Ciao.
Black gold may continue to rise.Hello everyone! The price of oil has been trading within a descending parallel channel for several days, with the bulls holding the support level at 78.50.
If the price breaks through the upper boundary of the channel, the bulls might attempt to push it towards the next resistance level at 84.00 for Brent.
Considering the impact of news on oil prices, I believe it’s wise to lock in profits at potential reversal zones.
Stop-loss should be placed at the local low.
On the daily timeframe, we can see that further growth is possible as part of the fifth wave of the impulse.
Brent Crude Oil At Key Resistance - Will It Drop to 78.00?ICMARKETS:XBRUSD is at a key resistance area, marked by historical price reactions and strong selling pressure. This zone has been a reliable turning point for bearish reversals in the past.
If bearish confirmation emerges, such as strong upper wicks or bearish candlestick patterns, I expect the price to move toward 78.00. A breakout above this resistance, however, would invalidate the bearish scenario.
Traders should remain cautious and use proper risk management when approaching this level.
Brent Oil - Correction in progressTrend : Uptrend
Current Wave : Wave 1 to Wave 2.
Note: If wave 1 completed, we want to see a retracement wave ABC/WXY/. I don’t which one will happen.
Plan : I want to see a reversal of wave A before join the wave to wave B and join the wave to wave C when reversal can be seen at wave B. Finally join the wave from wave 2 to wave 3.
This is my point of view only. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Do your own TA for confirmation.
TAYOR.
Brent price just begin its uptrendBrent price just began its uptrend and continued to go up for a couple of weeks, even months
Brent - What will Trump's oil policies be?!Brent oil is in the 4-hour timeframe, between EMA200 and EMA50 and is moving in its medium-term ascending channel. We will look for oil selling opportunities on the supply zone. If the $75 level is broken, we can see the continuation of the downtrend. On the other hand, we can buy in the demand zone with a risk-reward approach.
When Donald Trump launched his election campaign, he threatened to impose 25% tariffs on America’s largest trading partners unless they addressed their trade surpluses with the U.S. Analysts described this idea as risky. However, Bloomberg has reported that, while this strategy is far from subtle, it has proven effective.
This threat turned importers into U.S. customers. Energy importers from Asian countries began purchasing more crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States, aiming to appease Trump before he took any action on tariffs.
Saul Kavonic, an energy analyst at MST Marquee, told Bloomberg that U.S. trading partners view LNG purchases as a tool for negotiating tariffs with the Trump administration. He added that since last November’s election, orders for U.S. energy shipments have risen.
Shortly after the election, Trump specifically suggested that the European Union should buy more LNG from the U.S. to offset its significant trade surplus. At the time, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, stated there was no reason why the EU couldn’t replace Russian LNG with American liquefied gas. However, her statement was perhaps not the most well-considered.
The EU’s preference for Russian LNG and its hesitation toward American LNG primarily stems from pricing issues. Even this year, the region’s purchases of Russian LNG have reached record levels. As reported by the Financial Times earlier this week, the EU is highly sensitive to price considerations. According to an EU official, price remains a critical and determining factor.
Bernd Lange, head of the European Parliament’s trade committee, previously remarked that Europe’s demand for LNG could align with America’s eagerness to sell more.He added that discussions on this issue are feasible. Trump has consistently emphasized his interest in deals that benefit the United States above all.
On his first day in office, Trump revoked Biden’s executive order that halted permits for new LNG export capacity. This decision will expand U.S. export capacity over the next four years, potentially lowering prices depending on demand levels.
The World Trade Organization’s chief warned that reciprocal tariff retaliation could result in a double-digit reduction in global GDP, a scenario that would have catastrophic consequences.
Brent correction after Trump's speechBy Ion Jauregui - Analyst ActivTrades
Brent prices have remained virtually unchanged in recent sessions, correcting -4.57% since the 15th and closing with a slight change of -0.05% this Thursday. The oil market continues to navigate uncertain waters, affected by geopolitical factors, political commentary and mixed signals on global demand.
Key factors influencing Brent
1. Political pressure in Davos: Former President Donald Trump's recent remarks at the World Economic Forum have put the spotlight on OPEC+, calling for a reduction in oil prices. While the direct influence of these comments is limited, they have added volatility to the market and generated speculation about possible production adjustments.
2. OPEC+ Expectations: Production cuts led by Saudi Arabia and its allies have maintained some support for crude oil prices. However, any change in the group's strategy could alter the supply-demand balance.
3. Global economic outlook: Market attention is also focused on monetary policy decisions, particularly signals from the European Central Bank (ECB). A higher rate environment could dampen economic activity and thus reduce oil demand.
Technical Analysis
Brent has faced a strong resistance zone at $81.72, made a triple touch and bounced strongly to $77.02. A fairly strong range has been generated between $70 and $82. The strongest pressure zone being the $72.50 price zone. Noting that the current price zone is the piercing zone of the last upward momentum, we need to watch to see if this zone breaks down, which would lead us to pull the price back in the direction of $74. If this does not happen, we may see an advance that attempts to pierce the indicated resistance zone again. There is more likelihood of a bearish directionality at this time due to the global information indicated, so the trade should exploit short trades.
Outlook for Brent
Brent continues to reflect a fragile balance between concerns about a global economic slowdown and supply constraints imposed by major producers. In the short term, statements from political leaders, inventory data and global growth expectations will continue to drive crude oil prices. In this environment, investors remain alert to any changes in supply and demand dynamics, seeking clarity in a market that remains in constant adjustment.
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