NEW IDEA FOR SP500By examining the trend in the four-hour time frame, the S&P 500 index has the resistance of the pattern ceiling in the range of 5903, and if it is maintained, there is a possibility of a price decrease towards the support of 5773.
US500.F trade ideas
US500 continues to trade around the all time highs.SPX500USD - 24H EXPIRY
Price action continues to trade around the all-time highs.
Posted mild net daily gains but all trading confined to the previous days range, an indecisive Inside Day.
The 261.8% Fibonacci extension is located at 5901 from 5682 to 5766.
Due to an Ending Wedge formation, we continue to treat extended gains with caution.
Reverse trend line resistance comes in at 5898.
We look to Buy at 5848 (stop at 5823)
Our profit targets will be 5898 and 5905
Resistance: 5892 / 5898 / 5901
Support: 5848 / 5770 / 5766
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S&P 500 (SPX500) Weekly Market Outlook:
Index in Focus: S&P 500 (SPX500)
Timeframe: Weekly and Daily
Key Technical Patterns:
Ascending Trendline on the Daily timeframe
Major Correction Zone below 5,000 level
Analysis:
Daily Ascending Trendline:
SPX500 has been moving within a strong uptrend, as indicated by the ascending trendline on the daily timeframe. However, the price has reached a crucial resistance zone just under 6,000. This level is critical, as a rejection here could signal a significant corrective phase.
Correction Zone and Targets:
The chart suggests that the market is poised for a deep correction if the price breaks the trendline. The first downside target lies at the 5,000 level, which is a psychological support, and further movement could push the index down to the 4,844.37 area, as seen on the chart.
Trade Setup:
Given the possible rejection near 6,000 and the break of the ascending trendline, we are focusing on sell opportunities in anticipation of a larger market correction.
Key Targets:
First Target (TP1): 5,000 (psychological level)
Second Target (TP2): 4,844.37 (next major support)
If the price continues below these levels, we could see an even deeper correction into the lower trendline zones.
Conclusion:
The S&P 500 is at a critical point where it faces potential downside pressure. Similar to the USD/JPY setup, this index is showing signs of a major correction as momentum weakens near key resistance levels. Keep an eye on the 5,000 level for possible support, but be ready for a bearish move if that level breaks. Stay vigilant for selling opportunities on pullbacks during the week!
GEX levels of SPX for Weekly Option TradersAlthough the SPX is currently trading within a relatively neutral positive gamma range, it’s worth taking a closer look at what the week might hold.
This week, SPX is moving between critical resistance and support levels, which are showing significant options activity. The 5900 level is the key CALL resistance, acting as the gamma wall for the next 7 days (7DTE) . This suggests that as long as the price remains below this level, it will face strong resistance in moving higher. If the market breaks through this level, it could signal a bullish breakout, leading to increased turbulence.
🟨 DETAILED VIEW:
In case of a breakout, keep an eye on the second weaker CALL wall at 5925 and the third weaker CALL wall at 5940, which are the next potential resistance levels once the market moves past the 5900 gamma wall. These levels could play a pivotal role in the price’s upward movement and indicate further buying pressure.
🔶 HVL Level and Gamma Environment: 5830
The 5830 level represents the High Volatility Level (HVL), which determines whether we are in a positive or negative gamma environment. If SPX closes below this level, we enter the negative gamma zone, which could lead to increased market volatility. This could result in sharper price movements during the week if this level does not hold. In that case, the PUT supports come into focus.
The 5750 level marks the strongest PUT support, providing substantial downward support for the market. However, before reaching this level, it’s important to consider the emerging PUT wall at 5765, which may stop the price from falling lower. This could act as an intermediate support, slowing or even halting a decline before the 5750 level comes into play.
🔶 Implied Volatility and Time-Based Strategic Opportunities NOW
The decrease in implied volatility, as shown by the IV and IVx indicators, signals a calmer market environment. Based on IV rank and average IV levels, volatility is running lower, which presents good opportunities for various spread strategies, especially time spreads that can be optimized between the 11/01 and 11/04 time frame.
Key levels above could fuel further market movement throughout the week if a breakout occurs. CALL/PUT gamma levels on the options chain strongly outline the potential resistance and support levels, but these levels can change dynamically, especially if SPX breaks through the 5900 level.
🔶 SPX Key Levels This Week:
5900 CALL resistance – Main gamma wall, strong resistance.
5925 and 5940 – Second and third weaker CALL walls, offering additional resistance if broken.
5830 HVL – Key level determining the gamma environment.
5765 PUT wall – Emerging intermediate PUT support, which could slow a decline.
5750 PUT support – Strongest PUT gamma wall and support.
Keep these levels in mind throughout the week, as they will likely influence market movements and the volatility environment. By applying the right options strategies, this information can help you structure profitable positions.
]S&P 500 Sets a Record: Six Weeks of Steady GainsThe S&P 500 Index has set a new record by completing its sixth consecutive week of gains, a feat that underscores its strength in 2024. With this performance, the index has recorded its 46th and 47th highest closes of the year, underscoring the market's resilience amid challenging economic conditions.
Continued S&P 500 Successes
The S&P 500's positive streak has been driven by a number of factors, including encouraging financial results from large corporations, which has fostered a climate of confidence among investors. This steady growth reflects renewed optimism about the ongoing economic recovery.
Dow Jones milestones
Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has surpassed the 43,000-point mark, reaching multiple record closes along the way. This performance highlights the strength of large company stocks, which have played a key role in the overall market advance.
Growth Drivers
The S&P 500's rise has been fueled by several elements. A positive retail sales report has improved market sentiment, while expectations that the Federal Reserve may achieve a “soft landing” have strengthened confidence in the economy. In addition, the performance of financial institutions such as Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs has indicated a pickup in investment banking activity.
Instability in the Technology Sector
However, the technology sector has shown some volatility. ASML disappointed by failing to meet quarterly order expectations. However, an outstanding report from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) revived optimism in the sector, reinvigorating artificial intelligence-related trading.
Technical Outlook
S&P 500 (Ticker AT: USA500) has been moving in a sideways range initiated in May, which was pierced as of September 18 to new highs returning to the long-term trend that can move the index up to 6,000 points with a current high of 5,886.35 points. The control zones show a value in the zone of 5,471 points precisely within this lateral range, sustained by a support at 5,398 points where it has bounced twice. The RSI indicates a slight overbought of 65.18% which could indicate a continuation of the index's growth. The golden crossover indicator indicated an entry from August 13. Golden crossovers occur when the 50-day SMA crosses above the 200-day SMA, indicating a definite uptrend. This trend shows no signs of ending at the moment, so the bullish expansion may last at least until the issuance of the next nonfarm payrolls and fed adjustments.
Looking Ahead
This week is anticipated to be a key one, with a series of earnings reports from major companies, including electric vehicle manufacturer Tesla. These results could significantly influence the performance of the S&P 500 and other stock indices.
The combination of an upbeat macroeconomic outlook and positive financial results suggests that the S&P 500 will continue its upward trajectory.
Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst
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SPX: not ready to slow downThe S&P 500 counts the sixth straight week of winning streaks, and seems ready to count for more. During the previous week a fresh new all time highest level was reached at the level of 5.876. Only during the previous week the index gained 0,96%. Tech companies were again in the center of the market attention. The environment of decreasing interest rates and posted positive quarterly results of companies included in the index, continue to be main drivers of investors optimism.
As per analysts comments, the 75% of companies which posted quarterly results have beaten market expectations, which was another positive boost for the index. On the opposite side are some analysts who are noting that such moves of equities are “atypical” for the election year. Normally, the equity market will post some volatility prior to elections, considering that the US is only three weeks away from the final election day. On the other side are analysts who are more oriented toward the economical background of such strong moves. Namely, they are noting that the ongoing surge in equities is partially due to government deficit spending, as it is currently 14% higher from the same period last year.
S&P 500 short: A break down from trendlineFollowing my previous idea on the S&P500 completion of 5-waves (updated here in red), I've updated a 5 wave of a lower degree (in green numbering) and then we have an a-b-c of the same degree (also in green).
At this point, we can clearly see that there is a breakdown of a purple trendline. This is a longer term trendline. There is also a shorter term trendline in red that could potentially act as a support.
A short now will considered a more aggressive short but with potentially lower risk. A short after a break of the red trendline will be more conservative and even better risk if price drags along the trendline up.
It's up to you on the entry, but keep your stop loss above 5880 (c-wave high).
Good luck!
S&P 500 SELL ANALYSIS DOUBLE TOP PATTERNHere on S&P 500 price has form a double top and about to fall so if line 5867.1 break there is a chance of falling even more so trader should look for SHORT with expected profit target of 5861.0 and 5854.3 . Use money management
Market Forecast $SPX (Oct 20th—> Oct 26th)Market Forecast (Updated 10/20/2024)
SPX - Economic data for September was very good and supported the soft landing narrative for the stocks to go up, Based on NFLX ER, the TECH sector is still strong and bullish.
Next resistance: 5,891 and then 5,913
Next support: 5,750, followed by 5,560
Weekly Sentiment: Mixed/Consolidation Period
SPX500 road map to 5900: likely 'a' top if not 'the' top of 2024Bull runs often run longer than most imagine.
Or they can end before nice round numbers.
We believers know the FIBS light the way.
Pundits are calling for 6000 round number.
Golden Geneis fib at 5901 says otherwise.
Already feeling the heat as we approach.
=======================================
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SPX/BTCUSD comparisonComparing SPX and BTCUSD, with a bullish lens.
This comparison envisions both are in the same phase of their market cycle.
Each had a WXYXZ in their wave (2) corrections (blue) and zigzags in their wave ((2)) corrections (green).
BTCUSD's wave (3) needs to catch up with SPX's wave (3), with BTCUSD wave (3) target ~$150000.
SPX's wave (3) target ~$6400.
Timeframe Trap: How to Trade Stress-Free and Avoid OvertradingChoosing the Right Timeframe for Trading: A Beginner's Guide to Reducing Stress and Avoiding Overtrading
Choosing the right timeframe for trading is one of the most crucial decisions any trader can make. Yet, for beginners, it can be confusing and overwhelming. From day trading to swing trading to long-term investing, each approach comes with its own set of challenges and opportunities. The wrong choice can lead to unnecessary stress, overtrading, and ultimately, financial losses. This guide will help you navigate through different trading timeframes and styles, so you can reduce stress, avoid overtrading, and find the strategy that best fits your lifestyle and goals.
Understanding Timeframes: A Foundation for Your Strategy
Timeframes in trading refer to the amount of time that each candlestick or bar on a chart represents. Whether you're looking at 1-minute, 5-minute, or daily charts, your timeframe choice will significantly affect how you approach the market. Timeframes can generally be categorized as:
Short-Term: Timeframes from 1 minute to 1 hour, typically used by day traders.
Medium-Term: Timeframes from 4 hours to daily, ideal for swing traders.
Long-Term: Weekly or monthly charts used by position traders or long-term investors.
Your trading style will determine which timeframe you should focus on. For instance, day traders require constant attention to short-term charts, while long-term investors can take a more hands-off approach by analyzing weekly or monthly trends.
Trading Styles and Timeframes: Which One Is Right for You?
1. Day Trading: High-Speed and High-Stress
Day trading involves buying and selling securities within a single trading day, meaning no positions are held overnight. Day traders often use extremely short timeframes, such as 1-minute or 5-minute charts. The goal is to capitalize on small price movements, and the strategy requires constant attention, quick decision-making, and deep market knowledge.
From my personal experience, I found day trading to be the most stressful style of trading. The need to stay glued to the screen all day can be exhausting, both mentally and physically. It also led me to overtrade frequently, jumping in and out of positions without fully thinking them through. For beginners, this can quickly lead to burnout and financial losses.
Pros : Potential for quick profits; no overnight risk.
Cons : Extremely stressful; requires constant monitoring; high potential for overtrading.
2. Swing Trading: Capturing Medium-Term Price Swings
Swing trading involves holding positions for several days to a few weeks, aiming to profit from market "swings." Swing traders typically use 4-hour, daily, or weekly timeframes. This style allows for more flexibility than day trading since you don’t need to constantly monitor the market. It’s a good balance between active trading and giving yourself some breathing room.
When I transitioned to swing trading, I immediately noticed a reduction in stress. I was able to plan trades in advance and hold positions longer, which also helped me avoid the common trap of overtrading. By focusing on larger trends, I wasn’t tempted to react to every small price movement.
Pros : Less time-consuming than day trading; potential for larger profits per trade.
Cons : Overnight and weekend risks; still requires active market analysis.
3. Position Trading: Playing the Long Game
Position trading is more akin to long-term investing. It involves holding positions for months or even years, based on long-term trends rather than short-term price movements. Position traders often use weekly or monthly timeframes and rely heavily on fundamental analysis, such as company earnings reports or macroeconomic trends.
For those who don’t have the time or desire to monitor the markets daily, position trading can be an excellent choice. It allows you to participate in the market without the constant pressure of short-term fluctuations. In my case, using a longer timeframe for certain investments helped me maintain a broader perspective, which reduced the emotional rollercoaster that comes with shorter timeframes.
Pros : Minimal time commitment; less emotional stress; long-term profit potential.
Cons : Requires patience and discipline; slower gains; exposure to long-term market volatility.
4. Long-Term Investing: Set It and Forget It
Long-term investing isn't technically "trading" in the traditional sense. Instead of actively buying and selling, long-term investors focus on building wealth over time by holding assets for years or even decades. Investors typically use monthly charts and focus less on short-term price movements.
This approach is ideal for those who want to minimize trading-related stress entirely. By investing in fundamentally strong assets and holding them for the long haul, you can build wealth gradually without being swayed by daily market noise. This strategy also helped me maintain a more balanced work-life relationship, as I didn’t have to spend every day analyzing charts.
Pros : Low-maintenance; less stress; ideal for long-term wealth building.
Cons : Slow returns; requires significant capital and patience; exposed to long-term risks like market downturns.
How to Choose the Right Timeframe for You
Now that we’ve discussed the different trading styles and timeframes, how do you decide which one is right for you? Here are some critical factors to consider:
1. Your Schedule
How much time can you realistically dedicate to trading? If you have a full-time job or other commitments, day trading may not be the best choice, as it requires constant attention. Swing trading or long-term investing can provide more flexibility, allowing you to check the market once or twice a day instead of every minute.
In my experience, moving to a swing trading strategy helped me find a better balance between trading and my personal life. I didn’t have to stress about missing out on trades while at work, and I still had the opportunity to make profitable moves.
2. Your Personality
Are you someone who thrives on fast-paced action, or do you prefer to take your time analyzing and making decisions? Day trading can be exhilarating but also incredibly stressful, especially if you're prone to making impulsive decisions. On the other hand, swing trading or long-term investing allows for more thoughtful analysis and less emotional turmoil.
Personally, I found that my personality was better suited to swing trading. I could still make timely decisions but without the emotional exhaustion that comes with day trading. For beginners, it’s crucial to choose a style that fits your temperament to avoid unnecessary stress.
3. Avoiding Overtrading
Overtrading is one of the most common pitfalls for beginners, and I’ve fallen into this trap myself. Constantly jumping in and out of positions can lead to financial losses and emotional burnout. By choosing a longer timeframe, like swing or position trading, you can become more selective with your trades, reducing the temptation to overtrade.
One strategy I used to combat overtrading was setting specific entry and exit points based on my analysis and sticking to them. This discipline helped me avoid the emotional ups and downs of the market.
Managing Stress Through Proper Timeframe Selection
Stress is a major issue for traders, and it can often be tied to your choice of timeframe. Day traders experience constant pressure to make quick decisions, while long-term investors have the luxury of time. By choosing a timeframe that aligns with your lifestyle, you can greatly reduce the stress involved in trading.
For me, finding the right timeframe made trading more enjoyable. Instead of feeling rushed or pressured to act, I could analyze the market at my own pace, which ultimately led to better decision-making and improved results.
Tools to Help You Choose the Right Timeframe
Once you’ve identified your preferred trading style, it’s essential to use the right tools to maximize your strategy. Here are a few key indicators and methods that can help:
Moving Averages : Use these to identify trends across different timeframes. Moving averages are particularly useful for swing and position traders.
Support and Resistance Levels : Crucial for identifying potential entry and exit points, no matter the timeframe.
Economic Calendars : For position traders and long-term investors, keeping track of major economic events is essential.
Technical Indicators (e.g., RSI, MACD) : These can help you identify overbought or oversold conditions, which are useful for both day and swing trading.
Conclusion: Trade Smarter, Not Harder
Choosing the right timeframe for your trading style is essential for success, reducing stress, and avoiding overtrading. Whether you’re drawn to the fast-paced world of day trading or the slower rhythm of long-term investing, there’s a timeframe that will suit your needs.
Take the time to assess your personality, lifestyle, and goals before committing to a particular approach. And remember—trading smarter, not harder, is the key to long-term success in the markets. By selecting the right timeframe, you’ll not only improve your trading performance but also enjoy a more balanced, stress-free experience.
S&P500 INDEX (US500): Bullish Pattern... Again!The US500 is currently experiencing a strong bullish trend, which isn't surprising. After reaching a peak of 5,776 in September, the index began to consolidate.
Recently, it has formed an ascending triangle pattern on the 4-hour time frame. A significant bullish signal will materialize if the neckline of this pattern is breached, confirmed by a 4-hour candle closing above the 5,891 level.
If this breakout happens, we can anticipate a continuation of the bullish trend, with potential targets at 5,949 and ultimately the key psychological level of 6,000.
S&P500 INDEX (US500): Bullish Pattern... Again!It is not surprising that the US500 is currently experiencing a robust bullish trend. However, following a peak at the 5,776 level in September, the index started to consolidate.
After breaking out of this consolidation, the market has formed an ascending triangle pattern on the 4-hour time frame.
A strong bullish signal will be given once the neckline of this pattern is broken. Confirmation of this breakout will be seen with a 4-hour candle closing above the 5,891 level.
If this breakout occurs, a continuation of the bullish trend can be expected, with potential targets at 5,949 and ultimately the psychological level of 6,000.
STOCK MARKET CRASHThe time has come where our favourite stocks become cheap, diamond hands become paper and America turns upside down for a year. You have 1 month to sell your bags, gear up and have fun!
Nasdaq going down. Very soon!Yes, the Koncorde is out of control and the structure cannot hold anymore.
Everything seems to be rising but held by threads, it doesn't have the strength to sustain that price.
I wouldn't short it. Instead, just wait for lower buying opportunities. I have sold my Nasdaq participations.
SPX Will Grow! Long!
Take a look at our analysis for SPX.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 5,865.92.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 6,134.21 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
SP500 falling next week
Multiple times having resistance on this level. Giving me the potential short opportunity for the next couple of days. But in the higher time frame, the trend is still up.
Market SnapshotKey markets are heading towards some significant price areas
Be very cautious about how you play things to the long side
Tight stops are a must as we expect a volatility explosion over the next few months
More up for SPX500Hi traders,
Last week SPX500USD went up, dropped and went up again.
I think next week we could see another move down into the 4H FVG to finish the correction and after that a continuation of the upmove to finish wave 3.
Trade idea: Wait for a change in orderflow to bullish and a correction down on a lower timeframe to trade longs.
If you want to learn more about wave analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a like and respectful comment.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. I do not provide signals.
Don't be emotional, just trade!
Eduwave
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 18, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this week’s trading session, the index demonstrated substantial strength by exceeding the Outer Index Rally level of 5840 and achieving the subsequent milestone at 5861. This accomplishment will likely precipitate a squeeze toward the Mean Support level 5818. This support is crucial for facilitating the primary recovery and advancing into the next phase of the bullish trend.
Ascending wedge, blow off into election or rise?Similar pattern seems to play out where we wedge up, break to the upside, and then (??).
Market appears to be betting on a Republican win, we're coming into clearer focus on the election date, which brings uncertainty after apparently boosting most assets.
Btc, gold, and Us equities are all very correlated on the Pearson 30d correlation chart.
Nobody seems to want to hold a dollar.
US500 afternoon updateUpdated bull count for US500.
Target for bulls is red median line of pitchfork (drawn from March 2020 low/January 2022 high/October 2022 low.
Current count has price in wave (3) of iii of (iii) of (v). Wave (2) tagged .618 fib drawn from 17 October high of 5884.7 to 15 October low of 5806.6.
Key support for this count to remain valid is 5806.6. Also key for price to remain above .5 median line support (teal line).
