S&P 500 Outlook: Black Monday Risk Points to 4,600US500 Weekly Forecast – April Week 2
After Trump’s tariff news and the VIX spiking to 29, the S&P 500 (US500) showed signs of cracking. Last week’s candle broke the prior low at 5,092 and closed at 5,061, forming a clear bearish engulfing candle with strong downside momentum.
This confirms a structural breakdown, and the first major monthly demand zone sits at 4,600 — a likely target if fear accelerates.
Primary Scenario:
• Price could open with a short-term bullish correction toward 5,400 (equilibrium zone of the last leg).
• From there, we expect a sharp bearish continuation to 4,600
• Alternative: If Monday opens with panic (Black Monday scenario), price may dump straight into 4,600, creating a huge imbalance between 4,600–5,400.
• That imbalance could act as a magnet for a later retrace — and then another sell-off from higher again.
Bias: Bearish — watching for retest after potential panic move
Key Levels:
• Support: 4,600 (major monthly demand)
• Resistance / Rebalance Zone: 5,400 (equilibrium)
• Breakout Confirmation: Weekly close under 5,092 already done
This setup reflects both technical structure and the real fear in the market. If Black Monday unfolds, we may get a deep move followed by one of the cleanest bearish retests of the year.
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Weekly forecast by Sphinx Trading
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