Does this seam reasonable? Looking at the 3-day intraday chart, it appears that SPX could be forming a triangle or bull pennant. Have to wait for confirmation, but if it breaks out 5900 after the pullback, there could be potential.
US500.F trade ideas
SPX - June ProjectionsMay showed price heading back up to the high. This is four months now from the previous top. Generally for a major top to exhibit itself, it might take only three months to test. Four months is also not uncommon so it is possible that today's close will be last positive monthly close in a while.
I expect that the price will continue to rise, probably above the 6010 level of the last monthly closing high. If price surpasses the previous monthly close high, I will be watching for a turnaround, with prices eventually closing out June to the downside.
To me, based on the 40-month moving average. I have noticed that usually waves 2 and 4 have strong support at the 40 month moving average, where more major corrections will see price go below it. As price just came down to that level and didn't break it, we are in or have finished a wave 4. I'm still looking for lower prices assuming that this wave 4 to be a Flat with more sideways action ahead.
Currently short SP
SPX week & month review 5/30/25Intrigued by today as we closed the month and week. The charts appear bullish until something changes that. Key points I noticed...
*Monthly morning star pattern
*RSI above 50 on month and week chart
*MACD over zero line and signal up on month and week chart
*Key levels holding up (21 ema, FVGs)
We are still in volatile times and narratives are being thrown all over the place. Do you see what I see? Enjoy your weekend.
Major LowI'm buying puts expiring on October 31st, All Hallow's Eve.
I'll give price room to keep melting up to 666 at the farthest, that is my stop level. If we breach that price, then just know that tech is unstoppable and Artificial Intelligence is the Mark of the Beast.
If the market doesn't drop here, then the sky is the limit.
Looking at Examples of 4.23 Breaks If markets continue to make shallow dips and rally higher, or even if there's a big sell off and false break of the lows that makes a V recovery then we're seeing a whole lot of things up-trending above massive inflection points. In this post I want to show you some different examples of what has happened on 4.23 breaks.
The 4.23 level is a very high probability level to trade off. Even on an intra day basis this will most often have at least reactions and can have full reversals off it. You can see in the SPX chart that the 2022 top came off the 4.23. When a 4.23 is going to be a reversal level it will often react to the 4.23 spike it out. Come back under and hold a retest. Forming a head and shoulders pattern with 4.23 as the shoulders. That setup when successful is a fatal setup for the trend. When inside the 4.23 head fake you're inside the end of the trend.
Interestingly, not only is SPX at this 4.23 level but so are lots of other things. Bitcoin is, for example.
BTC is often a good proxy for risk on/off so it's interesting this is at this big decision level along with SPX is interesting.
In the 4.23 reversal the rejection of rallies can be so strong and abrupt there's not a chance to do anything during it. You really have to think about it in advance.
But if the 4.23 break it's extremely easy to the upside for the foreseeable future.
Let's start with looking at the different 4.23 decisions in AAPL over the years.
This first one shows how the head fakes can be the end of rallies. This correcting relatively shallow compared to the full risk. Holding the 2.61.
From this pullback and 4.23 break AAPL went up 200% without any sizable pullbacks.
Advancing to the further swing.
In this one AAPL began to go parabolic in the run to the 4.23. Got a bit above it. Crashed back to it. Held retests and then went into a big boom move.
Almost every week closed higher in this period which continued until over 100% above the 4.23.
We advance the swing again and ... what's the chances?
AAPL last top is 4.23 and now we're retesting the 4.23.
Now ... there are different things that can happen. But if you were to assume the 4.23 pattern in AAPL continues it'd have to do this.
And if you believe that is possible (and it's possible) then the SPX chart in the OP makes a lot of sense, right?
Expecting BTC would do this would be obvious if indices made that move.
Look at NVDA.
To overlook the risks of rejection would be fatal if wrong (this could be a simple head and shoulders like pattern) but viewed through the lens of a 4.23 pullback this would have a hyper bullish forecast to it.
Over and over again you can make this case for things doubling without any major pullbacks. Candle after candle up-trends.
It would not be a time to be a bear!
Here's a look left on NVDA. If you had fibs from the crash range here was the 4.23 decision.
We could be somewhere like here in NVDA.
These are things you certainly have to respect the risk of as an active shorter of things. It'd not be good. And they're such massive outsized opportunities if they form like this that it'd be insane to not prep for what to do in this. If week after week after week is closing green and we never trade under the last week - a smart trader can build a massive position in that.
Think about the positions you could build in these periods where the market never crosses your entry again.
And then wait and start to trail stops when it goes parabolic. During this period there will be 10% jumps up and the trend of shallow pullbacks will continue.
Carrying a bear bias into this would be bad because although the trend never breaks there a enough pullbacks to mean you can easily end up bearish in the worst rally zones. If betting on things like bull traps/spike outs.
These moves above the 4.23 are very common. A sharp doubling of the trend happens above the 4.23 a lot!
If SPX is going to break it and have the common reaction - everything is going vertical. There are lots of things that are at the 4.23 zones now and you can add 100% onto the 4.23 and think it's probable it will get to there and head fake over it a bit. 100% should be a fairly "Safe" target for the 4.23 break.
More speculative ideas would be to look for things that are currently down a lot and draw a fib from the high to the low of those. If we enter into a mania condition where indices are up every week then we might see mania in the hyper speculative things that were in favour previously.
Example;
Not think this sort of thing works on doge?
We have a current 4.23 top and a drop to the 1.27. That's the full predicted correction off a 4.23. It's not always the bottom - but this is the target for a 4.23 drop. Doge may have completed a full 4.23 cycle and be heading into the next. Absolutely possible. If that were true, this would be set to begin to trend very hard.
The consideration has to be what if SPX is here.
It'd be fair to say the odds of this are low but how high would they have to be to make it worth considering?
People act as if the idea of considering massive downside risk means you're scared to take upside risk. Which isn't the case. If anything, I am advocating for more aggressive upside risk betting on the solid trend continuation with tight trailing stops if the breakout is made. Inside the area where we have most chance of a pullback in an uptrend and a wipe out top in a reversal I'm extremely aware of what those risks might look like, but I won't be "Side lined" in a breakout. It means I don't want to broke if the extreme risk thing happens.
Indices could more than double or more than half off the 4.23 decision. We're in a really interesting time.
If we break I plan to trade as if we're going to be up and up every week. Only take long setups. Maybe have a few macro short levels along the way but be mainly a perma bull. If we get the consistent buying weeks I'll expect all dips will be bought and the uptrend will turn into a parabolic run, I'll act accordingly.
And if we start to get massive 10 - 20% weekly candles somewhere over 10,000, I'll suspect that may be blow off action and start to think about fading. By this time we'll be at the next set of important fib levels and I'll use a very similar form of analysis.
If you use any half decent trend strategy with a stop loss you really can't lose money in a typical 4.23 breakout. Even those mindlessly buying with no downside control can run up a lot (although it's questionable if they get to keep it or not).
The fact this is a possible outcome for bears if the resistances fail at this level is something I think macro bears should consider, deeply. Because you don't have to "Be wrong" for this to happen. If your thesis this is all a big stinking bubble - your biggest risk isn't you're wrong, it's you're right! And we're inside the bubble. Not at the end of it. Bubbles FREQUENTLY double into their end points.
This would be a major opportunity for any who embraced it. I do think seeing this happen would be warning things were going to get ugly later but the money to be made in the 5000 - 10,000 run would be exceptional. Accumulating intra day/week with trailing stops would probably see you hit trailing stops about three times most of them you getting in lower and you could end up making 1.000% for the 100% the market went up - and do this while keeping risk capped low since you're always trailing stops to lock in profit.
The opportunity isn't in the price forecast/% as such. It's more in the fact that if it is right it should be evidenced by those periods of extremely consistent trend. These will go on for a long time. Be interrupted. Chop / drop and then resume. The amount you can make in those types of trends if you expect them is off the page. And it'd be easy. There's a few times it'd be tricky and these can be deal with by simply waiting - because later it will be easy.
What makes this all the more important to consider for bears I think is the fact that we could say the highest probability way that SPX makes this move is by dumping under the last low to retest the 4.23 first.
Which would feel very bearish. Very "I should sell the rip" ish. The move that this would make is one I already have marked in as a warning that we could end up going significantly lower. I have to understand all those conditions could fill and even although it all looks exactly like a bear setup, it's actually a 4.23 retest. Very different things for the next swing.
Every major high and low in SPX during the last decade has interacted with the fibs from the 2008 low. They've marked out the highs/lows better than anything else.
We're now at the most important one of those. It hit in 2022 and since then we've been inside the suspense period of it. The 4.23 reaction didn't tell us all that much. A 4.23 spike out doesn't tell us all that much. Both of these things happen in the bull and bear moves. But the actual decision after the attempt to break 4.23 matters a lot.
Whatever happens here is likely to be the most pivotal decision point so far.
SPY update - still bullish!In today’s session, we saw an increase in volume without significant price movement. This could indicate underlying uncertainty or a potential shift in momentum.
At the moment, price is still respecting a key trend line and several support levels. Until these are broken, it's too early to confirm whether the broader market is turning bearish.
🧠 I also want to point out that the price is forming an ascending channel, often a reversal pattern, especially when occurring at market highs. While we’re seeing some bearish signs, it’s crucial to remain patient and let the market show its hand.
📊 As always, the key is to observe, not assume, and be ready to adapt as the price action develops.
Thanks for watching the update, I hope it brought some insight and value to your trading journey!
June is expected to be bllodbathHistorical trends suggest that June tends to be a weaker month for U.S. equities, with the S&P 500 averaging a modest gain of just 0.1% over the past 20 years, according to CFRA Research. Seasonal factors, including lower trading volumes and investor caution ahead of mid-year earnings, often contribute to subdued performance.
Despite May’s gains, analysts warn of a potential pullback in June. Market sentiment remains fragile amid lingering Fed rate uncertainty and geopolitical risks. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has ticked higher, signaling growing caution (MarketWatch).
The potential return of Trump-era trade policies—including aggressive tariffs—has injected uncertainty into markets. Investors fear renewed trade wars could disrupt supply chains and inflate costs, weighing on corporate profits
In conclusion, while May delivered a bullish surprise, investors should brace for increased volatility in June. Historical trends, coupled with overbought conditions, suggest a correction may be on the horizon.
Expect a major pullback to test previous lows of ~5000
S&P 500 MAJOR REVERSAL INCOMING? | SPX500 SELL ZONE HIT SPX500 just tapped into a critical supply zone near 5985 and has started pulling back. Is this the beginning of a deeper correction? Here’s what I’m watching 👇
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📊 Key Technical Zones:
🔵 Supply Zone: 5985 – 6000 (Strong historical rejection zone)
⚠️ First Support: 5436.1 – potential bounce area, but already tested
🧱 Major Demand Zone: 4990 – heavy volume base, ideal buy zone for bulls
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🚨 Bearish Clues on the Chart:
Price got rejected at the top of the supply range with a strong wick.
Bearish divergence on recent highs (not shown here but evident on RSI/MACD).
Clean downside structure could target 5436, then 4990 if broken.
📉 Downside Projections:
First TP: 5436
Final TP: 4990 (big institutional interest)
---
🔁 Possible Scenarios:
1. 🔻 Bearish Continuation: If we break below recent support near 5880, expect speed towards 5436.
2. 🟢 Bullish Fakeout: Only a strong breakout above 5985 invalidates this setup.
---
🎯 Trade Idea (Educational):
Entry: Break and retest below 5880
SL: Above 5985 zone
TP1: 5436
TP2: 4990
---
📅 June Will Be Volatile – Stay prepared.
💬 Do you think this is the start of a correction or just a dip before ATH?
🔔 Follow @FrankFx14 for clean and professional chart updates! 👍 Like, 🔁 share, and 💭 comment your thoughts below!
US500 at a Crossroads: Diamond Pattern in PlayUS500 at a Crossroads: Diamond Pattern in Play
US500 is forming a small diamond pattern, but the risk is high since the pattern is still developing and could evolve further.
The price shows signs of a decline, but a strong breakout is needed to confirm the movement.
Diamond patterns are typically trend continuation setups, but the final direction depends on where the breakout happens.
Both scenarios are well explained on the chart
PS: The best approach is to wait for the breakout before taking action.
THIS SETUP IS VALID ONLY FOR TODAY
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Bull trap into the close?Daily Bias is still up, but if we end the day near 5940, it may be a C wave with a further move down into next week. I also look at Gold, USOIL, and BTC
Choose Your Fighter SPX Here is the broadening formation we're in.
TVC:SPX is likely to consolidate further before making a decisive move.
$SPX // May 30 2025 // Analysis & Targets for Day TradersSP:SPX // May 30 2025 // Analysis & Targets for Day Traders
The Bias remains up on both Gold and the SP500 Both markets are above their 18mas so the bias remains up. SPX BB is 6054 and if I'm right we will get there.
Bullish continuation?S&P500 has bounced off the support level which is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could potentially rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 5,784.04
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 5,689.40
Why we lik eit:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 6,003.35
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
This Guy has arrows down to 4400My last market update ended up receiving a comment from a Trading View user that seemingly was mocking the fact that my shorter-term chart posted in an update to my followers had directional arrows down to the approximate area of ES 4400.
Here's my longer-term expectations. If some didn't like 4400, I suspect they will equally dislike sub-ES 1,000.
Best to all.
Chris
Bullish bounce off overlap support?S&P500 is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 5,784.04
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 5,689.40
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 5,973.58
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
SPX500 watch 5900 then 6103: Double Golden zone Was/Will be TOP?SPX500 with a ferocious recovery after tariff relief.
About to test a most important zone of its lifetime.
Double Golden zone of a Genesis plus a Covid pair.
Such a tight confluence of two major Goldens is rare.
It warned us of a top BEFORE Trump even won (click).
The retest could form a "Wave B" or "Bull Trap" lower high.
It is PROBABLE that we "Orbit" these high gravity objects for a while.
It is PLAUSIBLE that we "Blast" by them but have to retest soon after.
It is POSSIBLE that "wave B" ends here and we drop deep for "wave C".
I am personally a bull, but we should be PREPARED for a BULL TRAP.
==================
Previous Plots below
==================
5901 TOP warning:
5668 Tariff warning:
5100 Tariff Relief Entry:
===============================================
.
SPXSPX Cup and handle on the chart. Would like to see this pan out would put SPX back to test the ATHs and possible breakout into 6300 area.
US500/SPX500 Heist Plan: Grab the Index CFD Loot!Greetings, Profit Pirates! 🌟
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Entry 📈
The vault’s cracked open! 🏦 Snatch the bullish loot at the current price—the heist is on! For precision, place Buy Limit orders on a 15 or 30-minute timeframe for pullback entries, targeting a retest of the nearest high or low.
Stop Loss 🛑
📍 Set your Thief SL at the recent swing low (5640) on a 4H timeframe for day trades.📍 Adjust SL based on your risk appetite, lot size, and number of orders.
Target 🎯
Aim for 6160 or slip out early to secure your gains! 💰
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US500/SPX500 Market Intel 📊
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SHORT ON SPY (SPX/USD)Spy has given us bearish divergence at a major supply zone.
I will be selling spy to the next support level.
Today is FOMC and I expecting it to influence spy move to the downside.
S&P INTRADAY uptrend consolidation supported at 5793US Equities poised for a post-holiday rebound, with futures up following Donald Trump's decision to delay EU tariff implementation until July 9. The temporary reprieve has improved short-term risk sentiment, with the EU seeking to fast-track trade talks focused on critical sectors—potentially bullish for industrials, autos, and tech exporters.
Geopolitical Risk Elevated
Western pressure on Russia is intensifying:
Germany's decision to allow Ukraine long-range strikes into Russian territory marks a notable escalation.
Trump signaled potential new sanctions against Russia and sharply criticized Putin, increasing global risk premiums.
This could fuel defense sector strength and lift energy stocks if geopolitical tension drives oil prices higher.
FX Pressure – USD Weakness Persists
The U.S. dollar remains under pressure, despite a slight intraday bounce. It has fallen over 7% YTD, hitting its lowest level since 2023 last Friday.
Speculative traders and hedge funds are building USD short positions.
Drivers of weakness: Trump’s tariff rhetoric, and concerns over the expanding U.S. fiscal deficit.
Trading Implications:
Risk-on tone favors growth stocks, tech, and cyclicals.
Multinationals may benefit from USD weakness, improving earnings translations.
Defense stocks (e.g., RTX, LMT) could gain from the escalation in Ukraine.
Watch for volatility as headlines shift around trade, tariffs, and Russia.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 5970
Resistance Level 2: 6010
Resistance Level 3: 6085
Support Level 1: 5793
Support Level 2: 5730
Support Level 3: 5685
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
SPX is overheated, a correction is necessary📉 Market Update: No, It Has Nothing to Do with Trump
This move has nothing to do with Trump’s dramatic announcements. The reality is simple: the MACD on the daily chart is overheated, and a healthy correction is needed — likely down to the 5,520 level — before resuming the uptrend.
Now, does it surprise anyone that Trump acts like a PR agent for his investors? He always seems to drop “bad news” at the exact moment the charts call for a pullback. My guess? They're shorting right now.
🪙 Bitcoin Stalling
CRYPTOCAP:BTC is also losing momentum, and looks like it’s in need of a short-term correction as well. This suggests a week of consolidation ahead for the whole crypto market.
But let’s be clear:
🚀 The Bull Market Is Not Over
The weekly charts remain very bullish, and this trend could last another 4–6 months. The macro bullish structure for crypto remains intact.
However, in TradFi, there are cracks:
🔻 20-year bonds sold at 5.1% — a major recession red flag
💸 Tariffs are putting pressure on global trade
📉 The entire traditional market is starting to de-risk
🔮 What to Expect
Short-term correction to ~5,518 (first bottom target)
A possible rebound after healthy consolidation
A continued uptrend in crypto unless key support breaks
I’ll publish a new update when conditions change.
📌 Follow me to stay ahead of the market. And as always: DYOR.
#CryptoMarket #Bitcoin #MACD #TechnicalAnalysis #CryptoCorrection #BullishTrend #RecessionWarning #TradFi #Altcoins #BTC #MarketUpdate #TrumpEffect #DYOR
