SPX (S&P) 500 INDEX DOWNSIDE TARGET 5672SPX (S&P) 500 index is seeing weakness on the HOURLY chart, with targets up to 5672. There is a good support in this index from 5670 to 5675 from where a reversal can be expected.
US500.F trade ideas
DreamAnalysis | S&P 500 Entering a Crucial Phase , Stay Ahead!✨ Today’s Focus: S&P 500 Analysis :
We're diving into one of the key assets in the stock and indices market: the S&P 500. Let's explore what potential movements we can anticipate for the upcoming week.
📊 Current Market Overview :
The S&P 500 has just swept a major buy-side liquidity level, specifically the All-Time High (ATH). This could signal a move towards lower prices, indicating a potential retracement or even a reversal. Additionally, there’s a clear divergence in market structure (SMT) between the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq (US100): while the S&P 500 has taken out its ATH, the Nasdaq has made a lower low. This divergence reinforces the possibility of a downward move.
🕓 Identifying Key Levels :
Here are some critical zones currently present in the market:
- PML : Previous Month Low
- BSL : Buy-Side Liquidity (ATH)
- SSL (EQL) : Sell-Side Liquidity, a key target for price movements
- 4H FVG : 4-Hour Fair Value Gap, a potential retracement zone indicating an area of imbalance
- SMT : Smart Money Technique, signaling further confluence for a move lower
- BPR : Balanced Price Range, another zone of imbalance to watch for potential corrections
These levels are significant as they represent areas where the price typically seeks liquidity, facilitating its movement toward the next target. The Fair Value Gap (FVG) also highlights areas where the market might seek to rebalance, providing further clues for future price action.
📈 Bullish Scenario :
For any potential long positions, we should look to lower timeframes for a sweep of Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL) or a tap into a key Fair Value Gap. Once this occurs, targeting a Buy-Side Liquidity level could present a buying opportunity. However, keep in mind that this strategy is riskier, as the higher timeframe outlook appears bearish.
📉 Bearish Scenario :
Currently, the market offers opportunities to look for lower timeframe entry models to establish short positions. These trades would target Sell-Side Liquidity levels. Monitoring the Nasdaq for correlation is also crucial, as we want the two indices to align before executing any trades.
⚠️ Disclaimer :
This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always perform your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
S&P and Federal Funds Rate: A Recipe for RecessionAs I sift through the current economic landscape, I am dabbling with the relationship between the S&P and the Federal funds rate, engaging in a deeper analysis to decipher macro patterns that seem to be steering us into an unavoidable situation: a recession.
Spotting Macro Patterns
In my endeavor to find significant macro patterns, I have been keenly observing the movements and trends surrounding the S&P and Federal funds rate. Given the recent financial developments and the current market dynamics, it appears that we are heading toward a period characterized by economic downturns.
Recession: A Certainty, Not a Possibility
Given the data at hand and the prevailing market conditions, I am led to believe that a recession is not just a probability but a certainty, a full 100% guaranteed. The intertwining movements of the S&P and the Federal funds rate are signaling a storm on the horizon.
What Next?
While this paints a grim picture, it is also a call to arms for every trader to tread carefully and to fortify their portfolios against the impending downturn. It might be a wise strategy to start looking at recession-proof investments and strategies to weather the storm.
Conclusion
As we navigate these tumultuous waters, let's keep a keen eye on the macro patterns and stay one step ahead to safeguard our investments. Remember, it's always better to be safe than sorry.
Looking forward to hearing your thoughts and insights on this critical matter.
Disclaimer: This post is based on personal observations and should not be taken as financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.
Quadruple Witching: What Retail Traders Should Know█ Quadruple Witching is Happening Today: What Retail Traders Should Know!
Today marks Quadruple Witching, a pivotal event in the financial markets that occurs four times a year—on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. During Quadruple Witching, four types of derivative contracts expire simultaneously:
Stock Index Futures
Stock Index Options
Single Stock Futures
Single Stock Options
When all four of these contracts expire simultaneously, it can lead to increased trading volume and heightened volatility in the markets. The term "witching" is derived from the "Triple Witching" event, which involves the simultaneous expiration of three types of contracts (stock index futures, stock index options, and single stock options). Quadruple Witching adds the expiration of single stock futures to this mix.
This convergence leads to a surge in trading activity and heightened market volatility as traders and investors adjust or close their positions.
█ When Does Quadruple Witching Occur?
Quadruple Witching takes place on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December each year. These dates align with the end of each fiscal quarter, making them significant for various market participants.
█ What Retail Traders Should Be Aware Of
⚪ Increased Volatility
Price Swings: Expect more significant and rapid price movements in both individual stocks and broader market indices.
Unpredictable Trends: Sudden shifts can occur, making it challenging to anticipate market direction.
⚪ Higher Trading Volume
Liquidity Peaks : Trading volumes can spike by 30-40%, enhancing liquidity but also increasing competition for trade execution.
Potential for Slippage: High volumes may lead to slower order executions and potential slippage, where trades are executed at different prices than intended.
⚪ Potential for Market Manipulation
Large Institutional Trades: Institutions managing vast derivative positions can influence stock prices, creating opportunities and risks.
Short-Term Opportunities: Retail traders might find short-term trading opportunities but should exercise caution.
⚪ Emotional Discipline
Stress Management: The fast-paced and volatile environment can be emotionally taxing. Maintain a clear trading plan to avoid impulsive decisions.
Risk Management: Use stop-loss orders and position sizing to protect against unexpected market moves.
█ Historical Perspective and Market Behavior
Historically, Quadruple Witching days have been associated with noticeable market movements.
⚪ Price Trends
Some studies suggest that markets may trend in the direction of the prevailing market sentiment leading into the expiration day.
⚪ Volatility Patterns
Volatility tends to spike during Quadruple Witching, especially in the final hour of trading, as traders finalize their positions.
⚪ Volume Spikes
Trading volumes can increase by 30-40% compared to regular trading days, reflecting the high level of activity as contracts expire.
█ Tips for Navigating Quadruple Witching
⚪ Avoid Trading
Some traders prefer to stay out of the market to avoid unpredictable price movements and potential losses.
⚪ Stay Informed
Market News: Keep abreast of financial news and updates that may influence market sentiment.
Contract Expirations: Be aware of which contracts are expiring and their potential impact on specific stocks or indices.
⚪ Focus on Liquidity
Trade Liquid Stocks: Opt for highly liquid stocks and ETFs to ensure smoother trade executions and tighter bid-ask spreads.
Avoid Thinly Traded Assets: Steer clear of stocks with low trading volumes to minimize execution risks.
⚪ Use Limit Orders
Control Entry and Exit Points: Limit orders allow you to set specific prices for buying or selling, helping manage execution prices amidst volatility.
⚪ Monitor Key Levels
Support and Resistance: Keep an eye on critical technical levels that may act as barriers or catalysts for price movements.
Volume Indicators: Use volume-based indicators to gauge the strength of price movements.
⚪ Maintain Discipline
Stick to Your Plan: Adhere to your trading strategy and avoid making decisions based on fear or greed.
Manage Risk: Implement strict risk management practices, such as setting stop-loss levels and not overexposing your portfolio.
█ Key Takeaways
⚪ Frequency: Occurs four times a year on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.
⚪ Impact: This leads to increased trading volume and volatility due to the expiration of four types of derivative contracts.
⚪ Strategies: Traders may choose to avoid trading, focus on liquid assets, implement strict risk management, or exploit short-term volatility.
⚪ Risks: These include unpredictable price movements, liquidity issues, execution challenges, and emotional stress.
█ Conclusion
Quadruple Witching can significantly impact market dynamics, presenting both opportunities and challenges for retail traders. By understanding the mechanics of this event and implementing strategic measures, traders can better navigate the heightened volatility and make informed decisions. Remember to stay disciplined, manage your risks effectively, and focus on liquid assets to optimize your trading performance during Quadruple Witching days.
-----------------
Disclaimer
This is an educational study for entertainment purposes only.
The information in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on evaluating their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
How dangerous is it for S&P's bullsGiven our understanding of the current phase in the interest rate cycle, what are the risks for equity market bulls if today’s cash session opens below yesterday’s lows and continues to trade lower in the first hour? How could this shape the short- and medium-term outlook?
How are you positioning for equity swing trades in this environment?
S&P500 INDEX (US500) Bullish Rally Continues
US500 updated the all-time high yesterday.
The market closed above a significant daily resistance cluster.
It opens a potential for a further growth.
Next resistance will be 5790 - 5800 area.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
SP500 Oversold, Bubble, SHORTHello traders!
This idea is based on my assumptions therefore please do not take this as a trading advise!
RSI- Oversold, divergency signals and...double top??
Also, looking at the economy results, PPI, coming decisions next week with hight probability of the 25 points drop of rates instead of 50 plus huge budget deficit of USA I think there is only one direction- sell
Anyway, let me know what you think?
S&P 500 Eyes New High Amid Fed Rate CutsAs Fed Rate Cuts Loom, U.S. Economic Health May Determine Market Trajectory
The performance of stocks, bonds, and the dollar following the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate-cutting cycle could hinge significantly on the health of the U.S. economy.
The Fed is poised to commence a series of rate cuts on Wednesday, having previously raised borrowing costs to their highest levels in nearly two decades. Market expectations, as indicated by LSEG data, point to an approximate 250 basis points of easing by the end of 2025.
S&P 500 Technical Analysis:
The price is nearing its all-time high (ATH) and shows potential to break through and set a new ATH, driven by the impending rate cuts. The S&P 500 is expected to test the 5675 and 5707 levels. Sustained stability above this zone could propel the index to new highs around 5780 and 5820. Conversely, a downside move could be triggered by stability below 5643, targeting the 5584 level.
Key Levels:
Pivot Line: 5675
Resistance Levels: 5707, 5745, 5780
Support Levels: 5643, 5620, 5585
Trend Outlook:
Consolidation: 5643 - 5707
Upward Trend: Above 5675
Downward Trend: Below 5643
SPX500 Will Go Lower! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for SPX500.
Time Frame: 2h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 5,716.20.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 5,672.36 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
FED Cutting Interest Rates Is NOT BullishAs of this week the FED has announced that they will be slashing the FED funds rates by 50bps (0.50%). Contrary to popular belief, this is not necessarily bullish. Actually, the last three times that they did it was an indicator that a bear market was coming.
As seen on the lower chart, once the FED cuts the rates, it has often signaled a stock market crash in the not so distant future.
Do you think a stock market crash is coming? Share your thoughts🙏
S&P 500 forecast: Outsized rate cut music to bulls’ ears. S&P 500 forecast: The US stock market has shown impressive resilience following the recent volatility. Investors, thrilled by the Federal Reserve’s outsized rate cut, have pushed index futures higher. However, there are mixed opinions about what lies ahead. For now, it looks the S&P 500 will finish the week at a fresh record high.
Fed’s Rate Cut and Its Impact on Markets
The Federal Reserve’s decision to deliver a 50-basis point rate cut was largely welcomed by investors. The move was seen as a bold but necessary step to ease economic concerns without sending panic signals reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasised that the cuts are not part of a long-term strategy but rather a proactive measure aimed at stabilising growth, now that inflation appears to be on the path of returning to its target.
Markets initially sold off but quickly rebounded, with S&P 500 futures suggesting a potential new record high is on the horizon at the cash open today. The Dot Plot projection also boosted investor confidence, showing a possible 50 basis points of cuts this year and 100 next year, with the terminal rate expected to hit 3.0% by 2026. But what now?
Can the S&P 500 Rally Continue?
With the S&P 500 up nearly 19% year-to-date, investors are wondering if the rally can be sustained. On the surface, it appears that market sentiment is bullish, bolstered by the Fed’s actions and a series of robust earnings reports. Yet, looming risks, such as global economic slowdown in the Eurozone and China, may challenge this optimism. Moreover, seasonal trends indicate that September is typically a tough month for equities, adding a potential headwind to the current rally – although so far this hasn’t held investors back. With the US presidential election approaching, market volatility could spike, leaving investors hesitant to dive into new rallies without a clear trend.
S&P 500 forecast: Technical Analysis and Key Levels to Watch
Despite some volatility after the Fed’s rate cut, the S&P 500’s bullish trend remains intact. Traders should keep an eye on the support range between 5613 and 5670, with the upper end of this range marking the high from July. As long as the index holds above this support area, the short-term path of least resistance will remain upwards, potentially keeping the market on course to head towards 5800 or even the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level of 5827, derived from the drop in July.
However, a dip below 5613 would signal a shift towards bearish sentiment, potentially pushing the index down to its next support and short-term trendline around the 5480-5500 area.
Bearish Risks and Market Sentiment
While the bulls are currently in control, bearish traders are watching for signs of a reversal. A drop below recent lows, as suggested above, could signal the end of the short-term bullish bias, reminiscent of the July sell-off when overbought conditions led to a sharp decline. Then, the signal came in the form of a bearish engulfing candle on 17 July. Bearish traders need to wait for a similar confirmation before making any significant moves, given the overall bullish structure of this market.
Risk Management in a Volatile Market
Regardless of whether you're bullish or bearish, managing risk is critical in today's market. With heightened uncertainty surrounding the economy and upcoming elections, volatility is expected to remain high. Traders should stay nimble and be prepared for sudden shifts in the market’s direction.
In conclusion, while the S&P 500 forecast remains cautiously optimistic, several factors could derail the current rally. Staying informed and agile will be essential for navigating the coming weeks. We will, of course, highlight any major shifts in the trends, if observed. Stay tuned.
-- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst
S&P500 H4 | Bearish Drop Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price has just reacted off our sell entry at 5,732.82, which is a swing-high resistance that lines up with the 127.20% Fibo retracement.
Our take profit will be at 5,672.36, a pullback support level.
The stop loss will be placed at 5,800.93, which is above 61.8% Fibo projection
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RATE CUTS AND AI WILL MAKE YOU RICHER AND RICHER EVERY DAY:)Here is what I believe will happen. It is very simple. No need to overthink it or overanalyze it with complex indicators.
The Fed does not cut rates because the economy is projected to be good. They are cut to save the economy from recession. Its like getting a tan. You never know if your skin got burnt until the next day. And the economy is already burnt... In the next weeks and months, the skin will be flaking off:)
Us500 updateDont be scared to follow trend be scared of people's who can force n trying by all means to goo against the trend am not going to goo against this trend am steaking to the plan for the rest of the year if i die I will be diying like a real man whose following the flow not folding if you see a sell am seeing buy for the next 3 to 6 mouths this is what am seeing thanks n i wish you all the best.
Us500 updateDont be scared to follow trend be scared of people's who can force n trying by all means to goo against the trend am not going to goo against this trend am steaking to the plan for the rest of the year if i die I will be diying like a real man whose following the flow not folding if you see a sell am seeing buy for the next 3 to 6 mouths this is what am seeing thanks n i wish you all the best.
Forecasting the S&P 500Forecasting the S&P 500: A Complex Task
Forecasting the S&P 500, a major stock market index, is a complex endeavor due to the multitude of factors influencing its movement. These include economic indicators, corporate earnings, interest rates, geopolitical events, and market sentiment.
Key Factors to Consider:
Economic Indicators:
GDP Growth: A strong economy generally supports stock market growth.
Inflation: High inflation can negatively impact corporate profits and stock prices.
Unemployment Rate: A low unemployment rate indicates a strong labor market, which can boost economic growth and stock prices.
Corporate Earnings:
Profit Growth: Strong corporate earnings can drive stock prices higher.
Earnings Expectations: Market expectations for corporate earnings play a significant role in stock price movements.
Interest Rates:
Federal Reserve Policy: The Federal Reserve's monetary policy, including interest rate changes, can impact stock valuations. Lower interest rates can stimulate economic activity and increase the attractiveness of equities.
Geopolitical Events:
Global Events: Political instability, trade disputes, or natural disasters can affect market sentiment and stock prices.
Market Sentiment:
Investor Confidence: Positive investor sentiment can drive stock prices upward, while negative sentiment can lead to declines.
Forecasting Methods:
Fundamental Analysis: This method involves analyzing economic indicators, corporate earnings, and other factors to assess the underlying value of stocks.
Technical Analysis: This approach uses historical price data and charts to identify patterns and trends that may predict future price movements.
Quantitative Analysis: This method employs statistical models and algorithms to analyze large datasets and identify correlations between variables that may influence stock prices.
It's important to note that no forecasting method is foolproof. Stock markets are highly volatile, and unexpected events can significantly impact prices. A combination of fundamental, technical, and quantitative analysis can provide a more comprehensive understanding of market dynamics.
Would you like to explore any of these factors or methods in more detail? I can also provide information on specific forecasting tools or resources.
S&P 500 to print final move to 6500It goes without saying, this bull market has been the most hated I’ve ever known. Retail traders attempts to go “short” on every leg up resulted in quick squeezes. Every 1% to 4% correction brought renewed calls for the end of all things. Including time I believe. There is a reason why 90% of market participants fail in trading. Emotions.
The last four long ideas published by Without Worries are linked below. Read the comments in each to get an impression of the distain retail traders have for this bull market. The Cup and Handle idea for example, published on November 9th 2023. Many reading the idea were understandably skeptic. I tell you that to tell you this... The idea was much more than a chart pattern. The idea included studies from Dollar index and more importantly market sentiment.
So lets focus on those two in a little more detail.
** Market sentiment **
The market sentiment in November last was incredibly bearish. The Put/Call ratio was sky rocketing, in other words retail traders were all “short” on the market. That was a mistake. Guess what? They're doing it again.
Weekly Put/Call ratio
If you follow my practices you’ll know one of our golden rules, we never never long into active resistance. Just don’t. Don’t even think about it.
On the above weekly Put/Call chart we can see retail traders are betting heavily with both feet for a market correction as the Put/Call ratio shows a strong demand for “Short” contracts. We can see RSI is actively rallying into resistance. Oh dear…
** The dollar index **
The dollar has entered a bull market. Or so it appears. On the 2-day chart below price action has printed a Life Cross with the index trading above the 2-day/200 sma.
However on closer inspection just as in late 2022 and indeed late 2023, both price action and RSI support have failed. This will be a short lived bull market, for now.
Support and resistance is the ultimate cheat code. It has been integral to the previous ideas shared. It amazes how many continue to dismiss the importance of practicing this simple concept. Look left.
2-day DXY
** The conclusion **
On the above monthly chart several technical developments have occurred. Together with market sentiment and dollar index structure, the combination provides a powerful message.
The red arrows highlight each significant market top over the last 10 years when sentiment was incredibly bullish. The blue arrows record sentiment at extreme bearish levels.
Here’s the interesting part, when sentiment was this bearish price action was already at the lower half of the rising channel. There is not an instance when a rise from lower to higher half of the channel with confirmation of support (we’ve confirmed) did not result in a resistance test at the top of the channel.
The resistance is now between 6500 and 6700.
Is it possible the market collapses like many retail traders are now calling for? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
** previous S&P 500 ideas **
S&P 500 - Cup and Handle
S&P 500 - Why everyone is wrong
S&P 500 - Why everyone is wrong - Part II
S&P 500 to 6000
Burned By A Melt UpTraders have always been taught to buy the rumor, sell the news.
A mantra of no nonsense trading that more than often ..works
When the Fed lowered interest rates in the US by .50 %,
a highly expecting event, traders took the news in stride, and sold stocks.
There was one fly in the ointment however.
Overnight stock futures traders, began buying futures sensing a real upside pattern breakout
on the day after.
And from the opening bell this morning, prices have gapped up sharply
realizing a technical, KST confirmed upside breakout that could send the S+P 500 to 5900.
Sometimes when news is perceived as better than could be expected, price follows in tail.
Big money traders are once again committing to the market,
driving price much higher, as the naysayers rue how could such a thing happen to them.
Bearish traders are now under water,
as those who thought they could outsmart the market
were burned,.. by the unexpected "melt up "
THE_UNWIND
WOODS OF CONNECTICUT
9/19/24
SP500The current market situation presents a selling opportunity on the US500. After a recent upward movement, the price is beginning to pull back. The RSI indicates the market is overbought, suggesting a potential correction. A break below 5,710 could confirm the continuation of this downtrend, with a profit target around 5,680, which aligns with a key support level.
All Time Highs piercedAfter the announcement of the FED to reduce interest rates, this attracted new money to the market, which made it easy to break the resistance at the All Time Highs (4670) level. What's next is the short term traders will be taking profits and the bears will be taking every dip to exit their short positions, creating pressure to the upside.
My forecast is this will be battling until the price corrects and the 21MA catches up with the price level. At that point the uptrend will resume.
We saw yesterday at 2:00 pm EDT that after the announcement of -0.5 in the interest rates the market skyrocketed creating a new intraday ATH, this was faded almost immediately, followed by wild swings to the upside, and downside, this conference was different from previous ones because of the battle between the high and the low of the session. Basically this was a "shaking the tree" scenario.
The momentum is showing a Negative Divergence in both the Daily and Weekly timeframes (higher levels, lower momentum), this forecasts a market reversal. We'll see a continuation of the uptrend, which will trigger a frenzy buy spree, the market is going to enter in a highly greedy phase, and if you follow the market history, this is the point where the institutional market will get liquidity before the big drop. I don't forecast a strong reversal in the short term, but probably next year. The institutional market needs lower interest rates to go shopping at lower prices, that is the point where we'll see a very aggressive reversal caused by panic selling.
Unemployment ticked up, Oil ticked up. This hints a market cool down. Still we're in full employment levels, nothing to worry about at this time. These are not recession levels, just slowing down, which are a good timing to start lowering interest rates. It may create a bit of inflation, but let's see how the balance of the FED interest rates equation behaves, inflation + employment + GDP.
Higher index levels, lower momentum, lower inflation, employment in check, a 0.5 interest rate cut. Looks good, specially in an election year, which historically is a triggering element for volatility.
SPX - SHORT [Capital]50 BPS cut is just ridiculous, we are facing dark times. Are you sure it is a bull market now?
Old man Warren already answered this.
Stay tuned.
SP500 Target ZoneWhere will the SP500 get to? Below is the potential next price using confluence factors.
1) Fundamental fair value of the SP500 is around 6057 (@19/09/24)
2) Round number 6000
3) Fib extension 1.618 from previous rally
4) Equal measured move from previous rally
Looking for price to retest the weekly support (previous resistance) at 5670 before rallying to the upside.
Fed Kicks Off Rate-Cutting Cycle. Why the Muted Market Reaction?Central bank bros met traders’ loftiest expectations with a half-point cut to interest rates on Wednesday. But is that too good to be true and maybe even a signal of some problems with the US economy and looming fears over at the Fed?
Trading today isn’t the same as trading yesterday. Even though prices don’t really confirm it — there wasn’t a super-duper rally in stocks. Maybe gold XAU/USD flickered a bit, but it was mostly froth . And here we are — the first day of trading in an environment with lower interest rates.
Jay Powell, head of the Federal Reserve, announced on Wednesday the first trim to borrowing costs in four years. The move ushers in a new normal where US interest rates USINTR are projected to continue moving lower from their 23-year high of 5.5%.
The easing cycle kicked off with a jumbo-sized 50 bps (basis points) slash. Surprisingly, the Fed went for the juicier, bolder and more aggressive option, leapfrogging the less interesting and exciting cut of 25 bps.
First reactions across the board showed investors were hyped to get what they wanted — the broad-based S&P 500 hit an intraday record .
Shortly after, however, stocks across the board pulled back and markets became anxious over the outlook as the realization kicked in. If the economy is doing fine, why go big on cuts from the get-go?
What’s more, central bankers are keen to ax interest rates by another half point in 2024, ultimately wrapping up the year with the benchmark rate sitting at 4.25% to 4.5%. Christmas may come early — the Fed meets twice more this year, on November 7 and December 18.
Better Safe Than Sorry?
A super-sized half-point cut could actually be a pre-emptive measure to alleviate a strained economy. But if inflation is now largely in the rearview mirror , what could the problem be? The other mandate. The Fed has a dual mandate of keeping prices in check (inflation) and upholding a stable labor market (jobs).
“We will do everything we can to support a strong labor market as we make further progress towards price stability,” Jay Powell said at the annual Jackson Hole gathering last month. And indeed, America’s jobs have seen a pronounced slowdown over the past few months. In July, markets added just 89,000 jobs (revised from an initial estimation of 114,000 ). In August, hiring had picked up modestly to 142,000 , but below expectations for 164,000.
Pros and Cons of Bumper Cut
Essentially, this big-boy cut of 50 bps is a double-edged sword. It cuts into borrowing costs, making money more affordable, potentially stimulating businesses to add more jobs and grow their gig. And it also prompts consumers to take on debt and get that house.
But on the flip side, a cut of that magnitude risks stirring up price pressures again. To get to full employment, the Fed faces the challenge of knocked inflation waking up from its slumber.
The size of the cut at this particular time doesn’t mean anything without the markets’ reaction to it. Apparently, investors were unimpressed and shrugged it off as no big deal. Looking ahead, however, the stakes are high because stocks are at all-time highs.
The S&P 500 touched a record, Big Tech is leading the charge into artificial intelligence and investors can’t own enough of the highflyers Nvidia NVDA , Meta META , Apple AAPL , etc.
The actual picture will become clear once markets figure out what the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle means and what to do about it.
