US500.F trade ideas
SPX & Bitcoin Correlation & US presidential election #Spx 1D chart;
Let me first talk about the importance of the S&P 500 chart;
They are positively correlated (i.e. they move together):
*#Nasdaq100
*#Oil
*#Bitcoin (sometimes)
Now, what I want to draw your attention to is that just before the presidential elections, in September and October, there was always a decline. After the elections, there has been a continuous upward trend in the first 100 days.
Not counting the 2008 world economic crisis, this has never changed in the last 3 elections. Even after the 2008 crisis, after falling for a while, it started to rise immediately afterwards. The data we are evaluating here is the first 100 days.
In September 2024, I indicated the decline with an orange circle
With a decline in October, a long-term uptrend may begin.
If Bitcoin also shows a correlation here, which is my expectation as in the #Btc chart I drew earlier, we will start a permanent uptrend after suffering for another 1 month.
SP500 end of first 100 days data after the US Presidential election:
Post 2020 Election (Joe Biden): +17%
Post 2016 Election (Donald Trump): +10%
After 2012 Election (Barack Obama - Second Term): +10%
After 2008 Election (Barack Obama - First Term): -19%
Fed’s Rate Decision to Set the Tone for Stocks, Gold and CryptoOfficials at the central bank are staying tight-lipped over the magnitude of the interest rate cut. What we know so far: there will be one. What we don’t know: is it going to be 25bps or 50bps?
Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell (or JPow if you’re a cool kid) is most likely having a hard time sleeping these days. Lurking in the near distance, September 18 to be precise, is a decision he should make that has the power to slosh trillions of dollars across global markets.
Stock valuations, crypto prices and the glow of gold all hinge on a single figure — the US interest rate ( USINTR ). Major central banks are on the move to unwind their restrictive monetary policies, especially when it comes to global interest rates . Investors have been trying to run ahead of the interest rate decision and position their portfolios to accommodate both a small casual trim to borrowing costs but also a bigger, juicier slash.
Clashing opinions over the size of the interest rate reduction have been swaying the financial markets in recent weeks. Fed officials haven’t sent out any comms regarding that question so markets do what they do best — speculate.
According to the FedWatch tool by CME Group, at the end of this week, investors were nearly even in their expectations for the upcoming interest rate cut with 55% calling for a 25bps (basis points) cut and 45% rooting for the fuller treatment of 50bps.
In any case, this would be the Federal Reserve’s first cut to borrowing costs in more than four years. The benchmark rate in the US is currently sitting at a 23-year high of 5.5% — a level that has stayed flat since July.
After a series of reports pointing to a wobbling economy — and on the back of mostly receding inflation — the central banking clique issued its uplifting guidance at their previous meeting, saying rates are about to go down when they meet again. But what they didn’t say — because they’re data dependent — is how much.
A 25bps cut to interest rates would most likely be already priced in across the spectrum. Stocks, the US dollar, gold and even cryptocurrency are now acting as if this level of rate cut is factored in. Moreover, some investors might even be disappointed to see a rate cut of that casual magnitude. Buy the rumor, sell the news, maybe?
A 50bps cut to interest rates could bring some needed fuel for the next leg up in stocks, gold and crypto. And, on the flip side, knock the dollar’s valuation.
Lower interest rates make money more affordable, enticing investors, businesses and consumers to get more cash out of the bank and spend more freely on big-ticket purchases. Obviously, investors shove the cash into various markets. Businesses expand operations and build new products. And consumers, well, they buy the new iPhone 16 and jam what's left in meme stocks ?
Perhaps even more importantly, lower interest rates help steer the economy, keeping it on an upward trajectory. Liquidity improves, because there’s more money flowing in the system, and valuations of public and private assets usually increase.
Take gold ( XAU/USD ), for example. Gold hit an all-time high Friday morning, pumping above $2,570 per ounce . Driving the gains was the relationship between gold and the prospects of lower rates, which make bullion more appealing because they reduce the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. At the same time, the US dollar loses some of its allure because the reduction in rates triggers a lower yield on dollar deposits.
Bitcoin ( BTC/USD ) is another interest -ing candidate to join the rate interplay. The OG token has been increasingly correlated to macroeconomic factors and the rate decision is already seen impacting its price in a positive way.
Stocks have been in choppy trading mode over the past couple of months largely due to the looming uncertainty about the looming rate-setting meeting.
So what do you think it’s going to be — 25bps or 50bps? And how would it affect financial markets? Shoot your thoughts below!
S&P500weekly and Daily timeframe concluding that we have a strong Bearish Flag Pattern on both timeframe so strong bearish momentum expected. Expecting TP at 5209.00 as it is nicely aligned with previous structure.
SPx - Price Surge, Key Levels, and Market Volatility AheadS&P 500 Technical Analysis:
The price pushed up about 3% as we mentioned and still running to get 5673 ATH by breaking of 5616.
So now it's possible to do a retest till 5573 and then push up to break 5616, otherwise stability above 5616 will support rising to get ATH
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5616
Resistance Levels: 5640, 5672, 5700
Support Levels: 5573, 5526, 5455
Expected Trading Range: 5672 - 5526
Additionally, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) delivering strong results and an anticipated rate cut next week, the market is likely to experience significant volatility.
previous idea:
Inverse H&S Pattern On Daily SPXGood day Traders and followers!
I spotted a inverse head & shoulder pattern in the daily SPX on Oanda. A breakout above 5670 area should trigger lot's of bullish activity as long as price doesn't fall back under during a test IF ONE OCCURS. 6066.7 would be a target area for this one.
Always wait for things to play out before you put your money on the table. We are here to make $$$ not donate to the world casino.
Best of luck in all your trades in the mean time. Until next time, Cheers!
SellIt has now converted in a downward trend and is expected to go more south side. good RR with high probability
Winter is comingTop low
Hight PPI
Collapsing is near
S&P starting baer market
Economy start collapsing
Geopolitics of world is not good
S&P 500 chart analysisThe S&P 500 is currently forming a symmetrical triangle pattern, signaling potential consolidation within this chart structure. The stock is likely to trade between the resistance level at 5650 and the support level at 5400 in the near term. If the index fails to hold above 5400, it may drop towards the next key support at 5300. A breakout above 5650 would suggest a bullish move, while a breakdown below 5300 could lead to further downside. Traders should monitor price action around these levels for confirmation of the next direction.
Risk appetite returnsUS stock indices flew higher last night, led by a strong advance in tech stocks. This saw the S&P 500 and NASDAQ end the session up 1.1% and 2.2% respectively. The Dow and Russell 2000 lagged somewhat, with both closing 0.3% higher, but overall the tone was positive. The gains followed the latest update on US inflation with the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August. This was viewed as a key piece of data coming just one week before the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting where the FOMC is expected to announce its first interest rate cut in over four years. Initially, the markets reacted negatively to the numbers. While Headline CPI (which includes food and energy) fell to 2.5% year-on-year from 2.9% previously, Core CPI was unchanged at 3.2%. More worryingly, there was a small uptick in the monthly data as inflation in the services side of the US economy, which includes shelter and transportation, remains very sticky. But the drop in the Headline number, which follows another benign reading from last month’s Core PCE (the Fed’s preferred inflation measure) clears the way for a rate cut next week. As to the size of that cut, the CME’s FedWatch Tool now assigns an 87% probability of 25 basis points, up from 66% earlier this week and 50% a month ago. The odds now favour a total of 100 basis points-worth of cuts between now and the year-end, with 125 basis points now less likely. Amid all the rate cut talk, it’s worth remembering that the Federal Reserve continues to run down its balance sheet, and thereby quietly tightens monetary policy. Could the Fed announce that this policy will now cease, seeing as it runs in opposition to rate cuts? US stock index futures are firmer across the board this morning, and the bulls have a spring in their step. The S&P is just 100 points shy of its record high and the bulls seem determined to take this out as soon as they can. If they do, then the big question is: what then?
S&P 500 Rises Following Inflation Data ReleaseS&P 500 Rises Following Inflation Data Release
Historically, September has been the worst month for the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), and the start of the month reflected this trend, with the index dropping around 4.5% from 1 to 6 September, indicating bearish sentiment.
However, yesterday's event — the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — may have marked a turning point.
According to Reuters, US inflation data showed that the core CPI rose by 0.28% in August, slightly above the forecast of 0.2%. This led market participants to believe that the Federal Reserve might agree to a 25-basis point rate cut next Wednesday.
Technical analysis of the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) chart indicates:
→ The price is moving within an ascending channel (shown in blue), having rebounded from its lower boundary yesterday and breaking the local descending trend line (shown in red).
→ The movement from B to C is approximately 50% of the A to B impulse, a bullish signal that suggests the "normal" correction may be complete, indicating a potential rally from the 5 August low.
→ Yesterday's price drop was a false move (indicated by the arrow), creating a bear trap.
As of mid-month, the outlook appears positive. It’s possible that the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) could finish the month in the green, though the Fed's long-anticipated rate cut decision, expected next week, will play a crucial role in this outcome.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Trading Near the Bells Part 1: The OpenWelcome to our 2-part series on how to trade the two most intense, liquid, and volatile periods of the trading day: the open and the close. These moments bookend the trading session and are critical for traders who thrive on fast-paced environments.
In Part 1, we’ll focus on the open—the first hour after the market bell rings. We will explore why this period offers unique trading opportunities, examine key price patterns, and discuss proven strategies for capturing profit while managing risk during this high-volatility window. From gap trading to opening range breakouts, understanding the open is essential for those looking to capitalise on the rush of liquidity and order flow at the start of each session.
The Significance of the Open
The open is often the most critical time of the trading day. It sets the tone for the session as market participants react to overnight developments, including earnings reports, geopolitical events, and economic data releases. The first hour of trading typically sees a surge in volume as traders place orders based on these new inputs, creating significant liquidity and volatility. This influx of activity can result in sharp price moves, offering traders the chance to capture quick profits.
Additionally, the open provides vital clues about market sentiment. The price action within the first 30-60 minutes can hint at whether the market will experience a trend day or a range-bound session. Understanding how to interpret and trade this period effectively can give traders a strategic edge, allowing them to capitalise on these early movements while managing risk appropriately.
Three Strategies for Trading the Open
1. Gap and Go
The "Gap and Go" strategy focuses on stocks or index’s that gap up or down significantly at the open and continue to move in the same direction. This strategy works best when the gap is backed by a fundamental catalyst, such as a strong earnings report, positive economic data, or a major news announcement. Gaps that are supported by solid news or events tend to continue in the same direction as they attract significant buying or selling pressure.
Additionally, this strategy is most effective when the price is breaking out of a period of compression or a key level of resistance. For instance, if a stock has been consolidating under a major resistance level and gaps up on strong earnings, it is likely to trigger further buying as traders who were waiting for the breakout jump into the trade.
• Key Setup: Look for gaps backed by a catalyst and breaking out of key technical levels.
• Entry: Enter in the direction of the gap if the price holds above or below the opening range.
• Stop-Loss: Set your stop near the gap level or below the opening range to protect against a quick reversal.
Example Gap and Go:
In this example, the S&P 500 gaps above both a descending trendline and a key resistance area at the open – backed by inflation data that had come in lower than expected. The gap holds within the first hour and continues to rise throughout the session, demonstrating how the early price action set the stage for the rest of the day.
S&P 500 5min Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
2. Opening Range Breakout (ORB)
The Opening Range Breakout strategy involves identifying the high and low of the first 15-30 minutes of trading and looking for a breakout beyond this range. This strategy works best when the breakout aligns with the broader market trend. If the larger trend is bullish and the stock or currency pair breaks above its opening range, it indicates that the market is continuing in the direction of the prevailing trend, providing a higher probability trade.
• Key Setup: Works well when the breakout is in line with the bigger picture trend.
• Entry: Enter long if the price breaks above the opening range with strong volume, or enter short if it breaks below.
• Stop-Loss: Place stops just inside the opening range to protect against false breakouts.
Example ORB:
In this scenario, the S&P 500 establishes a clear range within the first hour. A decisive break below this range leads to a cascade of selling pressure, indicating how the breakout set the tone for the rest of the session.
S&P 500 5min Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
3. Gap Fade
The Gap Fade strategy involves trading against the initial gap, assuming the move is overextended or lacks a fundamental catalyst. This strategy works particularly well when the gap occurs without significant news or events to justify the price movement. Traders using this approach bet that the market has overreacted to the gap and that the price will reverse and "fill" the gap by moving back toward the previous day's close.
Additionally, this strategy is effective when the gap coincides with a trend that has become extended on higher timeframes, suggesting that the market is due for a correction or reversal. For example, if a stock gaps up but has been in a prolonged uptrend and appears overbought on the daily chart, it may be primed for a pullback.
• Key Setup: Best used when there is no significant catalyst behind the gap and when the trend is extended.
• Entry: Short-sell if the gap appears overextended and lacks momentum, aiming to catch the reversal.
• Stop-Loss: Set your stop above the high of the opening range for shorts (or below the low for longs) to limit losses in case the move continues.
Example Gap Fade:
In this example, the S&P 500 gaps higher but stalls at a key resistance area. The market fails to continue higher during the first hour, leading to a break below resistance and a downtrend for the rest of the session.
S&P 500 5min Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Conclusion
The market open is a dynamic period full of opportunity for traders who are prepared to act quickly. Whether you prefer trading with the momentum of a Gap and Go, riding the trend with an Opening Range Breakout, or fading an overextended Gap, understanding the unique characteristics of the open is a crucial element of short-term trading. By using these strategies and adjusting them to the day's market conditions, you can navigate the volatility of the open with confidence and precision.
In Part 2 we’ll dive into trading the close—the other bookend of the trading day with its own set of challenges and opportunities.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
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A Powerful 3 Step Trading SystemThe return of the rocket booster strategy
--
Now it's very simple.
But first, before you learn this strategy
You need to understand that markets
move in cycles
and these cycles don't always happen
That is why when
you start trading you need to be very patient
So ideally you should be sitting on cash
before you deploy it.
yes inflation will bite your butt
as you wait but that's the price of entering
a good trade..
Think of it as the price to invest.
The rocket booster strategy is very easy
and its comprised of 3 steps:
#1-The price has to be above the 50 EMA
#2-The price has to be above the 200 EMA
#3-The price has to go up in a trend.
With the 3 steps, you can see that the SP:SPX
has followed these exact same steps.
Learn more about this strategy rocket
boost this content.
Disclaimer: Trading is risky you will lose money whether
you like it or not.
Please learn risk management and profit-taking strategies.
[SPX] The sucker move on S&P 500suck·er punch
/ˈsəkər pənCH/
an unexpected punch or blow.
So, there's sucker punch, and there is sucker move. Here's one of sucker move on SP:SPX , and I hate this kind of move. The price kind of enjoying the red journey & suddenly move to opposite direction in big way. So, is crash still on agenda ?
Well, this one for me is kind of neutral for now as the weekly is basically not bearish yet, but the daily is kind of tantrum right now...yeah it wants to go lower, but it's not....lot of sucker moves. Maybe let it made its mind first.
On the weekly chart, it's bearish if the price breaking 26 week EMA, or the MACD is breaking the support, otherwise it might just buying time until the election night.
SPX500 Resistance Ahead!SPX500 is making a bullish
Correction and will soon
Hit a horizontal resistance
Level of 5492.01 from where
We will be expecting a
Further move down !
SP500 $6000+ ALL TIME HIGH INCOMING From our previous analysis in June 2023 when will call VANTAGE:SP500 bull run to the upside this trend isn’t showing signs of weakness yet we might see another ATH of $6000+ extension
Possible Triangle Correction - Which would be Wave 4I am seeing what I consider could be a triangle correction along an ABCDE pattern on SPX (chart 2).
Or at least a standard compression correction along an ABC (chart 1).
As we know, in Elliot Wave, you only get triangles in Wave 4.
So I am pondering if we are about to see a big run up to Wave 5 which would melt-up the SPX to 6000 or higher (I'm not actually sure what degree this would be).
Comparative Analysis: S&P 500 & Federal Funds Rate 1998 vs 2024A Comparative Analysis: S&P 500 SP:SPX and Federal Funds Rate - 1998 vs. 2024
Historical Context:
(the lower chart S&P 500 and federal funds rate development 1994-2004)
1998:
- On September 29, the Federal Reserve began lowering the federal funds rate from 5.5% to 5.25%
- The interest cuts fueled the tech bubble, leading to a sharp rise in the S&P 500 over the next two years
- By 1999, as the Fed started increasing rates again, this contributed to the bursting of the tech bubble in 2000
Current Scenario:
(the upper chart S&P 500 and federal funds rate development 2020-2030)
2024:
- The federal funds rate now stands between 5.25-5.5%
- Anticipation is high for a rate cut on September 18, possibly by 25 or 50 basis points, mirroring the scenario of 1998
- Today, instead of a tech bubble, we're witnessing the emergence of an AI bubble
Future Speculations:
- AI Bubble Expansion: With the FED potentially lowering rates, this could accelerate the AI bubble, propelling the S&P 500 to new heights over the next 1-2 years
- Inflation Concerns: Lower interest rates might reignite inflation by 2025. If history repeats, the Fed might then hike rates again, risking a burst of the AI bubble post-2025
Conclusion:
While this analysis draws parallels with historical data, it remains speculative
However, the pattern aligns with economic cycles, particularly the 18-year property cycle and the broader economic super cycle that began in 2008
-> Do you think this scenario is realistic?
New York Session Recap - SPX500, NAS100Took 2 trades in New York Session. Trend Retracement setup on SPX500 and NAS100.
S&P 500 Poised for Bullish Move Ahead of CPI ReportS&P 500 Technical Analysis with Inflation Data:
U.S. futures remain steady ahead of the highly anticipated CPI report. The market is expected to be highly sensitive to the results. Current projections suggest the CPI will be around 2.5%, which would signal a weakening USD, potentially driving indices into a strong bullish trend. However, if the CPI comes in above 2.7% or 2.8%, the market movement could become unpredictable, with a possible downward shift.
The S&P 500 is currently trading above the pivot line of 5,453, with potential upside targets at 5,526 and 5,573. Conversely, if the price falls below 5,453, it increases the likelihood of a move toward 5,412, particularly if the CPI exceeds 2.7%.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5460
Resistance Levels: 5525, 5573, 5616
Support Levels: 5436, 5412, 5360
Expected Trading Range: 5412 - 5573
Trend: Bullish as long as the price remains above 5,453.
Bulls and Bears zone for 09-11-2024S&P 500 has posted back to back gains this week since the pullback last week.
Patience is the virtue.
Level to watch : 5501 --- 5499
