SPX500USD - Key Levels to Watch Ahead of Major US Data!The S&P 500 Index (SPX500USD) is currently trading near a significant supply zone around 5885–5925. Price has shown clear rejection here multiple times, indicating strong selling pressure from institutional players.
Key Levels:
Resistance Zone: 5885–5925 (Supply Zone)
First Support: 5659.1 – former resistance, now turned key support
Major Demand Zone: 5355.3 – 5400, marked by high-volume accumulation (Visible Range POC)
Bearish Scenario: If price fails to break above the 5925 resistance, we may see a potential sell-off toward 5659 first, and possibly down to the 5355 demand zone, especially with upcoming US economic data later this week (as marked by the calendar icons).
Watch For:
Rejection candles or bearish engulfing around 5885–5925
Break and close below 5659 for further downside confirmation
Strong bullish momentum only above 5930 to invalidate bearish bias
Bias: Bearish unless 5930 is broken convincingly.
Technical Tools Used:
Supply & Demand Visible Range (LuxAlgo)
Volume Profile Support Zones
Price Action Structure (1H)
What do you think? Will SPX500 hold the resistance or break to new highs? Let’s discuss!
#SPX500 #SP500 #TradingView #Forex #Indices #TechnicalAnalysis #SupplyAndDemand #PriceAction #SwingTrading
US500.F trade ideas
SPX500 H1 | Overlap resistance at 61.8% Fibonacci retracementSPX500 is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 5,881.33 which is an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 5,945.00 which is a level that sits above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and a swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 5,823.81 which is an overlap support.
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S&P 4Hr. will likely correct further towards 5725!1). That will complete the ABC correction on the wave 4 drop! 2). there's a lot of support in that area, since trend is intersecting the 50% fib level! 3). Price will also close the remaining gap! 4). Banks are buying as revealed by our Indicator! 5). NOTICE THE HUGE VOLUME PROFILE, WHICH SUPPORTS WAVE 5! 6). Also, the Bond market rallied, which is positive for Risk Assets!
Full Bear Break PlansToday we took out our second important support level and have sold off strong under it. We're in a rally as I write this but it's still inside the expected corrective range.
We still have not net where I'd expect critical supports to be around 5500 but at this point KI feel we do have enough info to make a forecast of what a crash would probably look like.
People always think crash forecasts are hard to make. Top forecasts are hard to make. Accurate forecasts on when a crash break will or will not happen are hard to make. When it comes to the actual swings of a crash when they happen - historically always been very simple to make. If the bull trap low and high is known, the crash levels have always been foreseeable.
For example, when this low and high was known in 2007, all the important levels and the low of the 2008 / 2009 move could be mapped out.
This isn't an isolated case. It's happened in all previous crashes. If you follow my work you'll have seen me trade important levels in drops / lows many times and it's always based on some derivative of this.
If we know the high/low of the bull trap then we can identify the important break level and map out all the levels to the downside that would typically hit.
We can know the zones where there's the risk of this and also know early if the bear setup is failing.
If SPX was going to make a classic break it'd be quite easy to approximate the classic swings we'd have now.
The first continent for this is a wick rejection on the monthly chart, and ideally in the last part of the month. This may be underway now. The selling has to stick with us either going lower or at least holding down - but if things keep going as they have recently we'll have the wick candle.
I recently showed how we tend to have the failure of bullish wick candles before a trend break. In that setup we usually see a big bullish wick candle. Often an attempt to rally and rejection so we have opposing wick candles (bull wick is usually bigger) and after this comes a bearish engulfing candle which is bigger than all the candles around it and takes out the wick low.
That move would take us to about 4500. And almost certainly be news driven.
From here we usually enter into a period of choppy action. It feels bullish and bearish but it's really just going sideways. Often this will end with two big bluffs. First a bluff at being about to break to the downside and then a big spike out of the recent highs.
This choppy action would likely go on for a few months in total with a high somewhere around 5000.
That'd be the last major bull trap and from there we'd start to head into the crash section. During this section we'd travel as much as the full bear swing from high to the current low had taken but we'd do it in a fraction of the time. Over the space of a couple months we'd make a massive news supported capitulation to under the 2022 low.
That'd then complete a 50% drop from the high. Even in extremely bearish setups we tend to get a bounce from around the 50% off the high level and we also tend to get a bounce when we spike out an obvious support zone - so whatever the overall move would be, if and when the 2022 low was spiked out this is around where I'd expect an important low.
This is a step continent trade plan. We can define a marker and if it hits then the bias is towards the next marker.
The first marker was there would be a monthly wick candle.
The following marker would be there is a rejection and close down end of month.
Third marker would be a massive bear candle taking out the wick low.
Fourth marker would be the "Recovery" being muted and stalling out around 500.
If all of those things happen, then the risk of a following breakout becoming a crash event would be high.
In theory, we could be about 6 months from a major crash and we could put in a series of specific markers as warning signs along the way.
First warning sign is there being no V recovery to this selling and the monthly candle closing with a wick.
This post touches on various things that have been explained in far more detail in recent posts. It'd be recommended to read those for full context.
Up again for SPX500USDHi traders,
Last week SPX500USD retested the 4H FVG once more and made a (corrective) move down into the Daily BPR. This was exactly the move I've predicted and I hope you took some value from it.
Now price rejected from the Daily BPR so next week we could see this pair go up again to the higher Daily FVG.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for a bullish change in orderflow and a small correction down on a lower timeframe to trade longs.
If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with Wave analysis, then please make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
S&P500: Vanna Snapback is Over – Short Gamma Drift Underway Belo📝 Summary
Short gamma regime re-entered after 20Y auction shock. Below 5870, dealers face structural sell pressure from vanna + gamma + charm convergence. Wait for VIX to fall before buying any dip.
📊 Price Levels to Watch
🔺 Upside Breakout Trigger: 5885
→ Reclaiming this level flips dealers back toward neutral gamma, opening short-covering squeeze potential toward 5925–5950
🔻 Downside Acceleration Zone: 5870
→ Structural pressure zone. Vanna-driven delta hedging intensifies. Below here, the market enters a volatility expansion regime
🧱 Gamma Walls:
Call Wall: 5950
Put Walls: 5875 / 5850 / 5800
🔍 Structural Regime Analysis
Macro trigger:
Last night’s 20Y Treasury auction was weak, triggering a sharp risk-off move.
SPX broke 5935 → 5875 in 15 mins, entering short gamma zone (GEX 🔴🔴).
Volatility Regime Shift:
VIX spiked >20, breaking the downward vol trend that supported recent vanna snapback rallies.
This marks the end of volatility compression. Vol expansion regime is in effect.
Dealer Hedging Mechanics:
Below 5870, Vanna pressure increases sharply as price declines + IV rises.
Dealers short puts must delta hedge by selling ES, amplifying downside in a feedback loop.
No Dip Buy Until Vol Stabilizes:
VIX must fall or implied volatility flatten before any long bias resumes.
Until then, treat rebounds as short entries, not long setups.
⚠️ Volatility Metrics Supporting This View
GEX: 🔴🔴 (Negative Gamma on both 0DTE and aggregate expiries)
IVx 5D Change: +4.04% → Implied volatility rising into the drop
PUT$: 85.6% → Option flow heavily defensive (puts > calls)
Skew: High, supporting demand for tail risk hedging
🧭 Tactical Strategy
Short bias below 5870, scale-in entries on failed intraday bounce attempts
First targets: 5850 → 5800 (Put gamma cluster + dealer momentum zone)
Invalidate short above 5885 (where short gamma neutralizes)
📌 Final Note
We are now inside a third-order Greeks-driven sell zone:
Speed ↑, Color ↑, Ultima ↑ → this is a self-reinforcing volatility trap.
No long setups are valid until structural vol metrics cool down.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 23, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The S&P 500 Index demonstrated a consistent downward trend during this week's trading session, reaching a significant target at the Mean Support level 5828. The index is currently trending lower, targeting the Inner Index Dip at 5730, with additional marks identified at the Mean Support levels of 5660 and 5600. Conversely, the index has the potential to rebound from its present position, advancing toward the Mean Resistance level of 5860 and retesting the previously completed Outer Index Rally at 5955.
Skeptic | SPX 500 Update: Bullish Breakout Brewing?Hey everyone, Skeptic here! It’s been a while since we’ve checked in on the SPX 500 , but the market’s now flashing a killer long opportunity with a high R/R—don’t miss this one! 😊 Stay with me to the end for the full breakdown. Let’s dive into the Daily Timeframe to set the stage. 📊
Daily Timeframe: The Big Picture
The SPX 500 pulled off a deep correction , dropping from a high of 6154.64 to lows around 4810.39 with some wild shadows that caught everyone off guard. But now, it’s firing up with fresh momentum, carving out higher highs and higher lows that scream bullish strength. The corrections in this new uptrend are super shallow and flow with the trend—exactly what we want to see! After hitting resistance at 5961.82 , we’ve had a slight pullback, but it looks like this correction is wrapping up, and we’re on the verge of the next big uptrend leg. Let’s zoom into the 4-Hour Timeframe to hunt for long and short triggers.
4-Hour Timeframe: Long & Short Setups
On the 4-hour chart, the correction shaped up as a descending trendline . We broke it, pulled back, and now we’re primed to crack 5895.39. A breakout above this level is our main long trigger. To get more precise, let’s check the 1-Hour Timeframe.
For the long setup , a clean break above 5896.34 gets us in the game. This move also busts through P.P. Level 1, giving us solid confirmation, and we could ride the wave up to P.P. Levels 3 or 4, targeting 5930.83 to 5956.97 . Those are prime spots to lock in some profits, but don’t close the whole position—since we’re trading with the trend, we can hold for more upside. For shorts, I’ve got nothing. Going against this bullish momentum would be pure madness! I’d wait for a sharp drop below support at 5849.67 before even considering short triggers, but right now, there’s zilch.
💬 Let’s Talk!
If this update sparked some ideas, give it a quick boost—it means a lot! 😊 Got a pair or setup you want me to tackle next? Drop it in the comments. Thanks for hanging out— let’s grow together and remember: Weathermen forecast. We trade! :))) ✌️
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-22 : Inside Breakaway CountertrendToday's Inside Breakaway in Countertrend mode suggests the markets may attempt to move downward - away from the recent highs.
I believe the SPY/QQQ will move into a sideways/consolidation range over the next 3-5+ trading days before attempting to make any big moves. We have a holiday-shortened trading week next week, and I believe the markets are moving into the Summer doldrums.
Overall, I would ask traders to stay cautious of this transition in the markets over the next 5--10+ days and prepare for volatility to increase after June 1st.
You all know what I believe is the most likely outcome - a rollover topping pattern followed by a breakdown in price targeting the 525-535 level on the SPY. We'll see what happens going forward.
Gold and Silver pullback back overnight which suggests the metals markets were a bit overheated to the upside. I still believe Metals will continue to push higher.
BTCUSD is trading up above $111k. Here we go.
BTCUSD is moving up into the potential rejection level that I suggested in my 5-20 video as a MASSIVE WARNING setup.
This is where we'll see how BTCUSD plays out - if we continue to push higher or if we REJECT and move into a broad downtrend.
I didn't expect it to happen only TWO DAYS after my video - but here we are.
Time to get muddy and play what price puts in front of us.
Get some.
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Bear Case Requires Downtrend Action. Strong Bull Bias Otherwise.With the recent breaks the odds are strongly towards 5500 hitting and if that breaks the odds are greatly for far lower hitting but I want to take some time to make sure I am clear on the binary nature of where we are.
The market is in a "Might go up, might go down" spot. Probably won't go sideways for long. I think we're probably going to see strong trends coming out of whatever decision is made here.
First thing I want to really drill in for my bear friends is a sell off from the 86 means nothing at all. Most of the time this is a bear trap. We have broken the first level it may have bottomed so the bias is strongly towards the next ones hitting but having a strong bear bias at this point in historic SPX setup would have led you into a lot of trouble most of the time.
If you fade trends the thing you always have to be worrying about is you've got this "pretty much" right but you're actually one swing too early. Because when that happens, the last swing is always exceptionally strong.
Fading trends is hard because if you're wrong it trends against you and if you're 95% right it spikes against you in the most ruthless of ways. What makes this all the worse is that comes off a correction in the trend so you end up with a bigger zone in which you're wrong. For example if we began to rally here there's now about 4% extra you could be wrong while saying we're still inside the last high.
Any time you're fading a trend and it's going well you should think of this risk. You have to map in the risk of a 161 head fake. These happen a lot. A common thing in blow offs. If you're right about the reversal after this move the short will be easy - but it's not easy to take if you're short bias into it.
Given the broader context of everything, I don't think I favour the 1.61 head-fake being the outcome if we rally. If we rally again then we're seeing prolonged big chart trending action above the macro 4.23 and I've only ever seen trends getting stronger when they can break a 4.23.
If the 1.61 breaks we can end up at the 4.23 - which would be a monster move.
The instance of a 4.23 hitting from a 50% crash are extremely rare. Every instance of it there has been in indices has led to a massive trend decision. All instances of bubbles tend to have clear changes in their momentum when breaking 4.23 fibs.
SPX is already above the 4.23 fib. The bear thesis has it this is a head-fake of that. It needs to be evidenced by a strong rejection of the head-fake.
Earlier I mentioned the tendency of 1.61 head-fakes. This was the most recurring big obvious topping signal I found when looking at crashes. We'd usually dummy drop and then make a 1.61 spike out. This is the rule I use to tell a pending false breakout from a breakout. If it breaks the 1.61, I expect it will get at least very close to the 2.20. If it can not break the 1.61, then there's a strong chance it may be topping.
Our current top is on the 1.61 hit and we're now into a retest of that.
The 1.61 sell off is interesting because if it's a 4.23 reversal we have to be in a head fake above it and if it's a head fake we are looking for a 1.61 spike. These things make the speculative bets into the retest compelling and the pragmatic "What if" planning for a break worth covering. A 1.61 reversal would be expected to be a nasty event.
A 1.61 reversal would take out the last low (by definition, it's just a bit pullback otherwise) and it would do this in a strong consistent selling manner.
Which would be crash like on this timeframe.
But the 1.61 reaction is not in any way prescriptive of a crash at this point. A common pattern is a big pullback from the 1.61 and then when it has been broken again it goes into a strong rally to the following fibs. This can top on a few of the fibs but full extensions in strong trends spike out 4.23.
Inside the context of the overall building of the trend what is happening now would be insignificant overall. Even if dropping all the way to 5500. A full expansion of this would agree with the other fibs we had around the 10,000 level. Furthermore, a doubling period off the breakout of a 4.23 I'd consider to be a highly probable outcome.
If the bear thesis is wrong here it can be wrong in a way that is irrecoverable. A persist bear will get you slaughtered.
The case for a potential bear move here is extremely strong but that does also tend to mean the failure of it would be all the more spectacular. It makes a lot of sense to bet in these zones because there's a high chance you can at least break even on short term reactions and can perhaps make a lot in bigger reversals.
It's pragmatic to be aware of what the larger risks of a reversal would be and how the swings in that would likely form. You have to think about these things ahead of time because otherwise it all happens too fast to really have time to think. Impulse decisions are usually bad.
I have a high degree of confidence in the fibs being able to map out the important levels. My ability to know what that means ... not so much. I may or may not get it right.
What is highly likely to be right based on 100 yrs of swings in SPX is the next major swing will relate to a previous swing in such a way that fib levels make it possible to get a good idea of the major highs/lows of the move. All the ways we can do that from here imply massive moves. If it's not 50% off the high it's 100% from the 4.23 break.
How all this relates to where we are at this moment in time is we have to accept the potential of the bear bet being so wrong that even if there's a crash later it comes back to this price - meaning if it doesn't work here- entirely drop it and aggressively trend follow. If the bear bet is right we have to be inside of a 1.61 head fake of a 4.23.
If we're inside of a head fake is has to sell off very consistently. We crash back to the break level. Price "Isn't meant" to be above that level and when the brief flurry is over it's nothing but selling.
The consistency with which this style of rejection has is uncommon so it was really weird seeing it off the first 1.61 reaction. For the rejection thesis to be valid now the pullback in is we should be in the second trend leg which will complete the return to 4.23. If it's the second trend leg it can't be weaker than the first. The first was extremely consistent.
From my perspective that's the bear bet. It's really specific for me at this point. If the bear thesis is going to be good we're inside a 1.61 head fake. The 1.61 is retesting and when it is rejected for a second time we're into a strong downmove to where the false breakout started.
What it would take from the prices we currently are to turn me into a hyper raving bull that was discussing different bubble moves that may be about to build up is not a lot at this point. It would take very little to convince me to start to buy all the dips with tight stops and it'd not take all that much longer of that working for me to say it was extremely likely all the implied bear risk was behind us and it's all rockets and emojis for the next two years.
I think when it comes to what the next big swings will be in markets it's important to be very objective because it's wild just how easily juxtaposed ideas can make sense. For example, AI. One could make a bulletproof case that we should expect a productivity boom based on AI. Lots of people can do much more. But you can make the inverse forecast that AI will be deflationary. Bringing prices down. Creating job losses. As jobs are lost, less money is spent - especially if things are deflationary because you can buy it cheaper later. Less money being spent is less business income and more jobs lost. Companies that survived would likely main use AI and it's easy to see how all that could end up being bad for markets.
There are a lot of things like could go either way like that and have polarised reactions in the market but something related to AI is almost certainly going to happen. If AI advancements don't stall out rapidly they're going to start making real changes in the things happening in the world - this could easily justify a bubble or it could put prices into a race to zero.
Then there's weird things like what happens when AIs become more and more of the trading volume - surely that's coming ... right? What will they do? It's something you can again make binary extreme cases for. You could make a case that the AIs would notice patterns of a topping market and start to trade in a way that brought about a crash. Or you could argue AIs might start to engage in some form of reward hacking and the way to optimise success is to drive the market vertical.
I don't really see the point in narrative based analysis but if you do a thought experiment where you imagine the market either has crashed or has doubled rapidly it's now easier than it ever has been to find different viable ways you could work backwards to how events complimented that.
It's wise to be agnostic and evidence based while we're at such a big decision level because the potential to be wrong big is so great and the likelihood you'll be bluffed into thinking you're right just at the worst moment is so high. Maybe bulls have had that now. But even if we sell and make a new low, this may turn out to be a second leg of a bear trap and be the low- being wrong from there as a bear would be even worse. Runs to new highs could come before a crash.
If and when the decision is made it should be easy to make money. The 4.23 break would be far better to make money. The trend lasting over a year. A bear break would be trickier with the ups and downs of a bear market but lucrative for the correct strategies. The important thing is being equally acceptant of either outcome - and also accept the reality that neither of the implied outcomes may happen. Which would be a huge anti-climax for me. Really would. If whatever happens next is vanilla, I'd feel a bit cheated.
The 4.23 rejection off a 1.61 spike out would be a very exceptional thing. It should be evidenced by exceptional action.
If the bear trend is not persistent, there's a good chance it's not working. Up-trending through the resistance levels would make the bear case indefensible in my opinion and in the event of a typical 4.23 break make being bear bias into the future certain to fail no matter how good you are at it.
The down move has a lot of proving it to do yet before it crosses from an expected move in a bullish pullback to a real threat of a trend break.
At this point both would look exactly the same - what we see in the coming week is likely to be more telling.
SPX, Final choppy leg upExpecting choppy ending diagonal wave 5 up to 6130-6200area. Followed by a larger wave 2 correction at the next higher degree/ set up for the a larger wave 3 wave to new ATH. ( Tax cuts/ rate cuts ).
How low will wave 2 go? ( somewhere in the green box most likely). Will we need to monitor its structure going down. Trump will not let market collapse to far If he can help it... And he can help it.
S&P INTRADAY corrective pullback - support retest?Trump-Era Tariffs Canceled: A US court struck down the “Liberation Day” tariffs, effective immediately. This boosts sentiment for industrials, consumer goods, and global supply chain-reliant stocks. The government is appealing the ruling.
US Dollar Strengthens: The DXY is back above 100, up 1.8% from last week’s lows. A strong dollar helps importers but may pressure exporters and commodities.
Fed Rate Cut Expectations Decline: Markets now price 42 bps of rate cuts in 2024, down from 50 bps. This supports financials (e.g. banks), but challenges rate-sensitive sectors like real estate and small caps.
Mixed Eurozone Data: Positive Italian confidence figures offset weak German and French job numbers, offering slight global risk support. Limited direct impact on US stocks.
Fed Flags Stagflation Risk: Minutes show the Fed is worried about stagflation. This could weaken confidence in growth stocks and favor defensive sectors.
Today’s US Data Watch:
Q1 GDP 2nd estimate (expected -0.3%)
Weekly jobless claims
Fed speakers
All ahead of Friday’s key PCE inflation data
Market Outlook
Positive: Trade relief, resilient dollar, stronger bank outlook
Caution: Slowing growth, inflation worries, fewer rate cuts
Focus Areas: Industrials, financials, tech (watch for pullbacks); avoid rate-sensitive sectors short term
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 6010
Resistance Level 2: 6070
Resistance Level 3: 6160
Support Level 1: 5780
Support Level 2: 5740
Support Level 3: 5700
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SPX: This is what I see happening...This will be a roller coaster ride for the next year or two. I am seeing 3 waves structures everywhere....a ginormous ending diagonal finish that may take SPX to 7500 to 8k. What comes next will be anyone's guess! For now, need to stay vigilant and manage money with caution.
Throw over top?On a 6 month time frame, price diverged from the trendline in the first half of 2019, their was some apprehension in 2022, but then everyone bought the dip..
Shaded area could be the throw over top, and prices could potentially reverse going forward to the 2nd half of 2025 and beyond, or it could just be a consolidation zone
US500 Is Going Down! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for US500.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 5,960.96.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 5,538.99.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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SPX500USD still going upHi traders,
How accurate do you want an outlook to be? Last week I said price rejected from the Daily BPR so we could see this pair go up again to the higher Daily FVG. And that's exactly what happened.
And after price swept the liquidity to the left, it made a correction into the 4H FVG.
So next week we could see the continuation of the upmove.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for a bullish change in orderflow and a small correction down on a lower timeframe to trade longs.
If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with Wave analysis, then please make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 30, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The S&P 500 Index has undergone considerable price fluctuations during the trading sessions of this week, successfully reaching a critical target at the Mean Support level of 5800. Presently, the index is exhibiting an upward trend with a focus on the retest of the Inner Index Dip at 5955 and Key Resistance at 5965. Furthermore, additional significant levels have been identified, including the Next#1 Outer Index Rally at 6073, Key Resistance at 6150, and the Next#2 Outer Index Rally at 6235. Conversely, there is a potential for the index prices to downfall aiming to retest Mean Support 5800 and to complete the Outer Index Dip, noted at 5730.