Get started
SPX500 FutureSPX500 FutureSPX500 Future

SPX500 Future

No trades
See on Supercharts
Overview News
Ideas
Discussions Technicals Seasonals

US500.F trade ideas

SIGMA Equity Analysis｜You’re still hesitating, while smart money📊SIGMA Equity Analysis｜You’re still hesitating, while smart money is already betting on the future (SPX) U.S. Equities: 2025 Cyclical Bear Cycle & Secular Bull Cycle through 2030 Dollar Hegemony 2.0 → U.S. Debt Soft-Anchored to Bitcoin 🧠 The market is testing your conviction — not your logic 📉 April’s violent correction shattered not just technical levels, but also investor sentiment ⚡ The steep V-shaped rebound gave no time to explain the move, leaving sentiment frozen in April’s fear 🔁 Emotional dislocation is the perfect fuel for a new leg up 📉 Every -1% day reactivates April trauma 😵 Most investors still don’t believe the rally is real 🧯 Bears keep shorting, bulls fear getting trapped at highs 🎆 The market doesn’t want to give you a “perfect entry” — it wants to make you miss it 💰 Smart money signals are loud and clear 📍 A $3B+ long-dated tech options trade quietly hit the tape 🎯 Targeting a major bull market leg by June 2027 🧠 This isn’t speculation — it’s strategic positioning 📌 Top funds like the Druckenmiller Family Office are also long the same timeframe ✅ Shared positioning = shared conviction 🧭 Why do they dare to bet big? 🧠 The AI + chip cycle feels like the internet infrastructure boom before 2000 💡 Productivity surge + disinflation + peaking rates → echoes of the 2010s bull run 💵 Dollar hegemony still holds, capital is rotating back into U.S.-led assets 🪙 A new narrative is forming: Bitcoin as the soft anchor to U.S. debt 📈 Technically, major U.S. indices have just retested historical highs and are primed to accelerate 📌 This is not the end — it’s the reset 📊 The Secular Bull is likely to continue through 2030 📉 A Cyclical Bear may arrive in Q4 2025 🔁 But it’s not systemic — a mid-2026 rebound looks likely 🎯 While everyone is waiting for a pullback, smart money has already bought the future 🕳️ Markets don’t wait for your readiness — they launch when you doubt the most 📅 April shook your confidence, May kept you skeptical 🚀 After June, the market may fully leave the hesitant behind 📌 TL;DR｜SIGMA Macro Summary 📉 1. 2025 Outlook: Q2 likely retests prior highs → Q3 pulls back but extends → Q4 enters a Cyclical Bear 🛡️ Not systemic → Not a Secular Bear 🔁 Mid-2026 rebound expected → Bull Market resumes 📈 2. Long-Term Cycle: Secular Bull likely continues through ~2030 🧠 Smart money already positioned via 2027 LEAPS 💵 Dollar hegemony still intact 🪙 U.S. debt increasingly soft-anchored to Bitcoin 📊 西格玛财经解盘｜你还在犹豫，而聪明钱已经下注未来 美股 2025 周期性熊市（Cyclical Bear Cycle）& 超长期牛市（Secular Bull Cycle） 美元霸权 2.0 → 美债“软锚定”比特币 🧠 市场正在挑战你的信念，不是你的逻辑 📉 四月的暴力回撤不仅打破技术形态，更深刻改变了投资者的情绪结构 ⚡ 快速而陡峭的 V 型反弹没有给市场解释行情的时间，情绪依旧停留在 4 月的恐慌中 🔁 情绪错位，正是行情启动的温床 📉 每一次超过 1% 的下跌，都在唤醒“4 月创伤” 😵 投资者普遍不相信上涨是真的 🧯 空头继续做空，多头也害怕高位被套 🎆 市场根本不想“给你好点位”——它在逼你失误 💰 聪明钱的信号已经非常明确 📍 一笔超过 30 亿美元的长期科技期权大单悄然出现 🎯 目标直指 2027 年 6 月前的大级别牛市行情 🧠 这不是投机，是战略性的卡位 📌 包括德鲁肯米勒家族基金在内的顶级机构也在重仓相同方向 ✅ 共性不是巧合，是共识 🧭 为什么他们敢下注？ 🧠 AI 与芯片周期，如同 2000 年前夜的互联网基础设施爆发 💡 生产率提升 + 通胀回落 + 利率触顶 → 重演 2010s 多头格局 💵 美元霸权仍在，全球资金持续回流美国主导资产 🪙 美债信用危机的新解法：比特币成为“锚定物”的叙事正在强化 📈 技术结构上，美股核心指数回踩历史高点，具备中期加速条件 📌 这不是终点，而是中继 📊 长期牛市（Secular Bull）预计延续至 2030 年 📉 2025 Q4 或进入周期性熊市（Cyclical Bear） 🔁 但不是系统性崩溃，预计 2026 年中再度回暖 🎯 所有人都在等回调，聪明钱已经建仓未来 🕳️ 市场不会在你准备好时启动，而是在你怀疑时发车 📅 四月让你恐慌，五月让你半信半疑 🚀 六月之后，市场可能会让不敢买的人彻底失去主动权 📌 TL;DR｜西格玛宏观总结 📉 1. 2025 展望： Q2 测试前高 → Q3 回踩拉高 → Q4 周期性熊市来袭 🛡️ 非系统性风险 → 不是长期熊市 🔁 预计 2026 年中反弹，牛市重启 📈 2. 长期趋势： 超长期牛市预计持续至 2030 年 🧠 聪明钱已押注 2027 年 LEAPS 期权 💵 美元霸权仍在支撑资产定价 🪙 美债正被“软锚定”到比特币
SP:SPX
by THREESIGMAGROUP
S&P 500 Wave Analysis – 26 May 2025 - S&P 500 reversed from support level 5775,00 - Likely to rise to resistance level 5970,00 S&P 500 index recently reversed up from the pivotal support level 5775,00 (former resistance from March, which formed the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Evening Star). The support level 5775,00 was strengthened 20-day moving average and by the 38.21% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse from April. S&P 500 index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 5970,00, top of the previous minor impulse wave 1 from the middle of May.
CBOE:SPXLong
by FxProGlobal
S&P 500 and the 200-Day Moving Average – A Simple Trend SignalLooking at the daily chart of the S&P 500 with the 200-day moving average (turquoise line), you could build a very basic—but often effective—trend-following system: ✅ Price above the 200-day MA = Bull trend ❌ Price below the 200-day MA = Bear trend 🔄 Price oscillating around it = Possible trend change ________________________________________ 📊 Current Setup: We’ve broken sharply below the 200-day MA and have seen only a minor bounce back above it—with little follow-through. This kind of price action typically suggests a weakening bull trend. ⚠️ If we break below the 200-day MA again (currently around 5773), I’d start viewing that as a bearish signal. Right now, I’m watching this level very closely, as the next move could offer a strong clue about the market’s direction. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
SP:SPX
by The_STA
Bullish continuation?S&P500 (US500) is falling towards the pivot which is a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which aligns with the 138.2% Fibonacci extension. Pivot: 5,782.52 1st Support: 5,692.37 1st Resistance: 6,138.06 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:US500Long
by ICmarkets
1
SPX500 Quick Market Outlook – May 23, 2025 | 15m ChartPosted by Wavervanir_International_LLC Today's session shows bearish continuation patterns despite a temporary bounce. We're currently trading just below the equilibrium level, with price rejecting from the 0.5 and 0.618 retracement zone. The bearish OB (Order Block) above continues to act as a ceiling. 🔍 Key Observations: Price action is forming lower highs under resistance. Volume profile and Smart Money Concepts (SMC) suggest distribution near the 5787–5794 zone. Break below 5766.41 (daily ORB low) could open the path to 5721.75 – 1.618 extension. Bullish invalidation only above 5793.80, where price would regain control above the mid-FVG and EMA cluster. ⚠️ Watch List: Key levels: 5787.44 (pivot), 5761.17 (support), 5721.75 (target) Bias: Bearish unless price reclaims 5795+ with volume Trigger: Confirmation via 15m candle close below 5766 and breakdown in volume structure Stay adaptive. The market structure is still forming, and liquidity sweeps can occur.
FX:SPX500Short
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
A short term buy opportunity: US500AUDHello, We are at a great level for buy opportunities for the S&P500 quoted in AUD from a technical point of view. After the Trump tariff declaration, most countries rushed and sought exemptions. However, China chose to retaliate. The focus shifted towards China and the trade war between the US and China escalated quite fast. President Trump raised tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%. China responded with a 125% tax on US imports, bringing nearly $600 billion in trade to a halt. Trump continues to insist that the issue of trade deficits needs to be solved and he seems quite serious about it. However, we acknowledge that Tariffs will not solve the trade deficits in totality. Tariffs are still seen as a negotiation tactic to call stakeholders to the table for President Trump. The U.S. and China are economically interdependent. The U.S. is China’s largest export market, and China is the U.S.’s largest import market. On 14th may, China and the Unites States called for a truce on the trade war and agreed to reduce tariffs on one another by 115 per cent for 90 days. The average U.S. tariff rate on Chinese exports will fall from 145 per cent to 30 per cent during that time, and the corresponding Chinese figure will fall from 125 per cent to 10 per cent. Additionally, the United States and the United Kingdom announced a trade deal for both countries. This two significant news excited the market and the S&P which is a market barometer was not left out. The S&P has since recovered and is currently trading at $5,886 (Above the April 2nd levels). While analysts may be concerned whether the underlying structure of the relationship between the United States and other economies remains fragile and subject to re-escalation. The long-term implications of this trade truce are still being assessed, with some anticipating renewed trade flows and market gains, while others caution that the underlying structural issues remain. We believe the U.S. may shift its focus to accelerating Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in the near term. Just yesterday (13th May 2025), the inflation numbers came in lower than expected, the consumer price index rose by 2.3% in April, down from 2.4% in March – prompting President Trump to renew attack on Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell, demanding he cut interest rates. We believe that lower rates will add onto an already rising market and now is a perfect time for us to align our portfolio by considering adding more into the S&P 500. Adding to the above is that we are just closing on the Quarter one 2025 results and, 90% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings, with 78% surpassing estimates, according to FactSet. This strong performance signals robust market health, particularly at current lows. Although tariffs were introduced post-Q1, the combination of solid earnings, easing inflation, and a potential Federal Reserve rate cut could drive a bullish surge toward all-time highs. We recommend a buy on the US500AUD from the current levels. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:US500AUDLong
by thesharkke
Has the S&P 500 rally ended?The US stock indices saw a noticeable drop in recent trading sessions, as markets wait for President Donald Trump’s new tax plan and its implications for US debt. The S&P 500 had surged more than 23% since April, but the rally seems to have ended from a technical point of view, reflecting rising concerns about the US economy. A bearish divergence appeared while prices were making higher highs, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) was making lower highs. This is a negative signal, and it played out clearly, pushing the index down to a new low. This suggests that bearish momentum is still strong. What’s the possible next move? Any current rise in the market may just be a temporary correction in a larger downtrend. A key resistance level for the S&P 500 is 5,937.55, which is 78% of the recent move based on Fibonacci retracement. The price could react negatively there, either with a small pullback or by continuing the downward trend toward 5,850.23. However, if the price rises above 5,971.53 and closes above it on the daily chart, the negative outlook would be invalidated, and it could signal the beginning of a new upward trend.
CFI:US500
by CFI
The Macro Importance of the 4.23 Breakout or Fake-outWe are at an incredibly interesting and unique point in SPX. I am fascinated to see how this ends up resolving. Based on everything I know, these things predict extreme trend events come next. First let's take a moment to qualify the idea the 4.23 is going to be important. The idea of using a line generated by a multiple of a swing that happened almost 20 years ago to make decision on what will happen in the next years sounds silly. I know that. But look at what happened on all of the previous fibs. Seeing is believing. This doesn't tell me the 4.23 has to be important, but it supports the idea it may be. If you bet any of the previous fibs would not be important, you'd have been wrong. All of these did their thing in one way or another at one point. It's quite incredibly, really. Especially if you understand that these pullback/breaks levels are common any time you use these fibs in a developing trend. They tend to react to the same levels in the same ways. Then it happens on the Big Stage .It's amazing. And if it continues, the next thing is ultra amazing. The 4.23 head fake has disastrous forecasts. In the full play out of the 4.23 rejection we return to the 1.27 fib. In this case, that'd be a Depression style event. When a trend forms through fibs having all these pullback/break reactions and it gets to the 4.23, if the trend fails there -a massive mean reversion move happens. When applied to a decade long rally, that would be horrific. This is the macro bear risk I have discussed at length, generally taking shorts into the fibs and covering/reversing long into supports). In the grand scheme of things the 4.23 area would be seen to have been essentially the top with some wild blow off action above it that turned into a head fake. We'd be right in the end times. A lot of nuance is needed for real trading but in a historical analysis it'd be seen that we were at the high now. On the other hand, if the 4.23 breaks we usually see a move that is equal in size to all of the move before but happens in a fraction of the time. 4.23 breaks can be a wild with all supports/resistances being easily broken in big persistent candles. 4.23 breaks are rare, but they tend to put you into the most exceptional of price moves. For context, when a 4.23 breaks when I am trading them on a 15 min chart prices are moving that fast I generally don't have time to do much. Even if I am sitting there watching at the exact moment it kicks off. It's like this; "Wow! Okay I need to think what to ... WOW!". Prices are moving too fast to process any reasonable plan. By the time you consider the situation you're in, you're in a totally different one. Nice conditions to be trailing stops. Hard to enter into. The magnitude of a 4.23 break here would be astonishing based on the previously discussed norms. It'd predict that SPX would go into a move where it was doubling from the high. Furthermore, it was doing it in a tiny fraction of the time it took the previous rally. For our doubling number it'd be best to take the breakout of the 4.23. Let's call it 5000 to keep it simple. Would give us an upside target of 10,000 in SPX without accounting for any stop hunting or overshoots. It would also imply that this happens in a crash up type of move. "Crash" being defined as a strong and sustained breaks of SR levels with no big reactions. When it comes to tactical trading this is a total nightmare at this moment in time with the suggestion of massive profits (with potentially easy markets) in the coming year or so. At this point in time it's very tricky. If you accept the premise that either we're in a head fake over the 4.23 and a very aggressive rejection is coming or we're now into the start of what will become hyper over performance in the trend you have to consider this as a bit of a limbo point where there could be a chance to do well one way or the other but if you screw up something terrible will happen to you. If it was a 4.23 fake out we'd have a super strong sell off. There could then be a big bull trap coming up to a double top/spike out and this would then turn into the most sensational of crashes down to under the 4.23- as the macro uptrend experiences what will become its first major trend failure. The action in that move short term would be insane. There could be some late month rejection here (or next month) and then a massive monthly engulfing candle. We could see a month -20% or so and then see follow through down months. The amount the market could drop and how fast it'd be predicted to drop make it enticing to bet on this. To bet on this, you have to bet into the rallies. There are too many times we dip and rip to try to sell after bear candles etc. They produce too many false signals. You can end up losing money even if you hit the big trade eventually. Betting on rallies allows you higher RR and when there are short term pullbacks you can get stops into even. But that leads us to the headache ... If we're inside a real breakout of the 4.23, we're in the foothills of what will become the most exceptional of rallies. During this, we should see massive high momentum moves up. These will generally go from one resistance level to another. Said differently, you'll see the spikes that seem ideal to fade into the levels you think are the levels to fade - and they won't be levels to fade. Conversely, the bull strategy would have you aggressively buying all dips and breakouts. When you see momentum looking to get in one it quickly. If it pulls back, all the better. Doesn't matter if you take a string of losses because if you end up in lower at the end and it makes a new high you'll be net up on the round trip. The trend is going to be accommodating and it's only going to get better and better. You can't lose on the upside, and if you come at it in a really attacking way you could perhaps position before a massive upside move. But you might be doing that into the very end of the trend and have all sorts of sickening gap risk/slippage risk and margin call risk. Of course, the 4.23 thing might end up not even being important. But from the lens I see markets through, I have to think it will be. If it's not, I'll be surprised. And it makes me believe that whatever way it goes there has to be something exceptional. When it comes to these juxtaposed outcomes watching price is not all that helpful. Because this can happen in an up move. With this happening in a down move. It can be really hard to tell things apart until the point where you've lost is crossed. If we break the high and you think we're going higher, it's important to be aware of the risk of a bigger pullback. But it can just break and run, too. Or to the downside it could break abruptly. Breaks more commonly have traps in them and would look something like this. So we have a unique situation where I think it's fully justifiable to expect there would be exceptional moves with the market going up 100% or down over 60% - and both of these would be expected to happen within a short period of time. Bulk of it over a couple years. But the nuances of how to go about positioning in a risk efficient way are tricky. On the bear side, you should be fading this rally and looking to build positions into drops as they develop. But if you're doing that against a bull trend you'll get decent entries if you're good with resistances but build up a position into support and end up down/even on all your entries. And you'll lose a lot of entries with no reaction - so you'll lose overall. On the buy side you should be aggressively accumulating and buying close to supports but in the 4.23 head fake thesis this would be literally the worst time in your life to do that. If you're buying and we go up and breakout, you should buy more. But if it's a breakout/correction then you'll get nailed. You can buy more into the correction but you might be "Exit liquidity" in the dump. In the dump, you can short aggressively but are liable to get cut up a dozen different ways. This set of dilemmas are always something faced when you're trading at a binary inflection point. Even on small charts when we trade at 1.61/2.61 and 4.23 levels this set of paradoxes exist and are tricky to know exactly what's best to to do - on the Big Stage, it's mindboggling the different things that may happen. And daunting knowing the different traps. If this 4.23 thing is going to be right, the one thing that is sure is there's going to be well above average chances to make big money when the 4.23 decision is resolved. The 4.23 rejection would be a terrible event. And with who knows what types of real world impacts/reasons. From an intellectual standpoint it is fascinating. If we went into that style of crash now we'd have done it off basic TA patterns, mirroring major crashes of the past and even the interest rates cycles would have been the same as previous bubbles. In the final analysis of it, almost all aspects of the formation and bust of the bubble would have been foreseeable with basic pattern matching ideas. All of the things that have happened in the last 50 years and then all of the crazy things that'd have to happen for a depression crash in the years to come - all foreseeable with extremely basic pattern ideas. The fact everything has matched as well as it has so far trading through the fibs is already remarkable. If it was punctured by a mean reversion fat tail ... wow! On a personal level, even just in the minor drops of 2020, 2022 and recent one it's clear to see indices going down a lot is going to really hurt people. At this point we're just seeing this in speculators but it makes me think about what this would be like on a grand scale. It'd not be nice. The 4.23 breakout thesis is fascinating and exhilarating. A prospect of heading into the major boom section of a mega trend and having full awareness of that being what you're heading into and approximately where you can expect that to end up going. These would be conditions where someone who knows what they're doing can make insane amounts of money. Even just showing up will make money (as long as you don't end up overstaying). In this extreme doubling event we would still be predicting bad times ahead - but they'd be differed by a couple of years. From a selfish point of view this would all seem great. To benefit from a bubble and be able to bet on a spectacular reversal later. From a humanistic point of view it seems like it'd only cause greater devastation later. No one cares now because we're back at all time highs and boohoo anyone who sold the bottom, but at the lows of April there were anti suicide posts pinned in trading forums. That's how bad things are now on a 20% drop. Think how much worse they'd get if mania develops more. It's an interesting time. For the sake of sanity and profitability I am doing my best to be as agnostic as possible about what the outcome will be. Plan for all, execute as suitable. I hope we see the 4.23 break. It's the better of the trading ops (Since it offers two massive swings) and if we can crash up or down by the same amount of points, who cares which way it goes? Trading long can be logistically easier in many ways, so it'd be the preference if all else was equal. And being a bear is tiring. It's particularly tiring having to explain to people stating a statistical observation on a SR level doesn't mean you're depressed, angry, a shill and having a different opinion about markets does not mean you hate them. So they don't have to try to fight with you. Every 5 mins... If you're a bull and say something will go from 100 to 130. And it goes to 40 then it goes to 129 ... you were always right. That's what people say. If you're a bear at 100 and it goes to 120 then 40 you were an idiot that got lucky eventually. I always find that funny about social media. We're in interesting times. If my 4.23 hypothesis turns out to be correct we're heading into the history books. It's just a question of "For what?.
SP:SPX
by holeyprofit
5
Pimp Your Indicators – A Smoothed Take on RSIYou don’t need to reinvent the wheel to find new and effective trading tools. Often, enhancing classic indicators with a few thoughtful modifications can yield surprisingly powerful results. Here’s a simple yet effective way to upgrade the RSI and turn it into a more actionable entry signal. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a widely used oscillator that ranges from 0 to 100, providing a measure of upside momentum within a given timeframe. For example, an RSI reading of 60 implies a 60% upside dominance based on recent price action. Traditionally, traders interpret levels above 70 as overbought and below 30 as oversold. However, RSI on its own isn’t reliable as a standalone entry trigger. An overbought reading doesn’t necessarily mean the market is losing strength—it simply indicates recent data reflects a strong upward move. Smoothed RSI Approaches To extract more useful signals, we can enhance the RSI in a couple of simple but effective ways: 1. RSI vs. RSIMA (RSI Moving Average): One approach is to smooth the RSI itself by calculating a moving average of the RSI (call it RSIMA), and then observe the difference between the RSI and its moving average. A positive difference suggests bullish momentum; a negative one, bearish. This approach reduces some noise but can still result in a choppy indicator, as seen in the subplot of the reference chart. 2. RSI on Smoothed Price (RSI5M): A more refined method involves smoothing the price before calculating RSI. Specifically, apply a 5-period EMA (Exponential Moving Average) to the price series, then compute the RSI on this smoothed series—let’s call it RSI5M. The key insight is to then analyze the difference between RSI5M and the standard RSI. This difference creates a smoother, more robust signal that better captures market bias. Why It Works In uptrends, the EMA(5) smooths out short-term fluctuations and highlights the prevailing trend more clearly than raw price data. As a result, RSI5M tends to rise faster and higher than the standard RSI. The difference between the two becomes positive in uptrends and negative in downtrends, making it a useful gauge of directional momentum. This effect is illustrated in the lower subplot of the reference chart, where the smoothed signal offers a clearer view of market regimes. Ready-to-Use Script If you're not into coding, you can explore the public script of the Parsifal.RSI.Trend indicator on TradingView. It implements a slightly refined version of this smoothed RSI differential and provides a clean visual cue for trend bias.
TVC:SPXEducation
by parsifaltrading
S&P500 Same recovery path with 2020 and 2009The S&P500 index (SPX) has recovered almost 90% of its losses since the February 19 2025 All Time High (ATH) and many have already started calling for a technical correction. If we compare however this 2025 Tariff fueled correction with the recent most aggressive ones (COVID crash in 2020 and Housing Crisis 2008/2009) we see a different picture. On their respective 0.9 Fibonacci levels (close to which we are today), both of those market recoveries went straight to new ATHs, without testing their MA50 (blue trend-line) until the next Cycle peak. They had that tested before when the price was trading near (or on)the 0.618 Fib. Notice also how a MACD Bullish on all three charts, confirmed the aggressive recovery pattern straight after the bottom. Instead of a correction, history shows that we might be looking at new ATH soon. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
SP500 BEARISH TRADE IDEA Key Observations: Imbalance Zone Identified (Supply-Demand Gap): The pink zone is marked as an imbalance — an area where price moved too quickly upward, leaving little trading volume in between. These imbalances often act like magnets, drawing price back to "fill" them. Recent Price Action: Price recently formed a peak and has since started pulling back. The latest candlesticks show bearish momentum (a series of red Heikin Ashi candles with increasing size). Projected Price Movement: A blue arrow projects a further decline into the imbalance zone, suggesting price may retest this level for liquidity or to complete a retracement. Target Area: The imbalance zone lies approximately between 5,680 and 5,736, with a midpoint around 5,710. This is a logical target for a pullback before potentially resuming upward. 📉 Bearish Bias Justification: Market Structure: A new lower high is forming, possibly signaling a short-term reversal or correction. Heikin Ashi Candles: Smooth and elongated bearish candles indicate strength in the down move. Volume Imbalance Theory: Price may need to fill this inefficiency before finding new direction. ✅ Possible Trading Implications: Short Setup: Traders might look for short positions with targets inside the imbalance zone. Buy Opportunity: Once the imbalance is filled, if bullish price action confirms, it could become a strong buy zone. ⚠️ What to Watch: Look for confirmation (e.g., candlestick reversal or support forming) in the imbalance area before assuming reversal. News/events (such as the economic calendar icons below) might impact price direction sharply.
SP:SPXShort
by theprofitpioneerzw
S&P 500: Consolidating & forming bull flag on support trendlineSo, we all know that the market is taking a breather, and the past week has been mostly flat (kind of). There have been plenty of headlines, some good, some bad. Most notably, the news about the Moody's US credit downgrade. I woke up one morning, took a look at LinkedIn and saw all the CFA-certified investing experts expecting a massive game-changing moment, potentially a market crash. Except, the market hasn't responded so negatively. In fact, I'd say that while long-term yields have been rising, the market has been doing its own thing . For instance, taking a look at the daily chart of the S&P 500 paints a different picture of the doom and gloom that I've been hearing ALL weekend and ALL week long. As you can see, the index is currently sitting on the daily support trendline which goes back to the 7th April low. On that trendline, taking a closer look, it seems the flat price action has been forming a bull flag. It's quite narrow and tight. But it certainly is a fine-looking bull flag. And a break above that would take the S&P 500 even higher. This would also likely have a positive effect on other indices. Furthermore, it might be worth keeping an eye on the big S&P 500 stocks that are high-beta and like to follow the market. So, to my point about how the market has been doing its own thing...seems that the Moody's downgrade could have possibly been already priced-in. I could be wrong, of course, as markets are still quite volatile and fragile to any sort of macro and global developments about trade and conflicts around the world. Thank you for reading. Note: not financial advice
SP:SPXLong
by michaeldobski
S&P500: First Trade War indicates that ATH comes soon.S&P500 is a very healthy bullish levels on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 65.213, MACD = 111.000, ADX = 49.249), being considerably over its 1D MA200, with the 1D RSI very close to the overbought zone. This resembles the first Trade War in 2018, when once the 1D MA200 was crossed, it became a Support level and extended the rally to the index Highs and the R1. We remain bullish on SPX with TP = 6,150. See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by InvestingScope
Plan for Full Support Failure We did really well today with lotto puts, hitting over 2,000% on the OTMs taking near the high of the day betting on new lows - but I want to start this post by stating nothing significant happened for bears today. I've been explaining recently how this sort of reaction to the level we were at would be most common. There are times when the low is made now. As I write this, we trade on support. In a 2021-esk move, we'd be at the low. In the statistically most common SPX move, we'd be in the first break the 5500. In the doom move, we'd be entering into a consistent downtrend that would have shallow bounces, a bigger trappier bounce around 5700 and then enter into a period of serious outright capitulation. The type of action almost never seen in indices. I believe contingent on the preceding action hitting this would be a highly probable event on the break. If we're in a big bear move then it HAS TO BE the case that the first drop was a leg one of Elliot downtrend or a leg A of a correction. This leg would have to be either the C leg or the 3 leg. Both of those would be capitulation events - and be headline making crashes. Like mainstream news sort of deals. These moves would be characterised by consistent and strong selling. Only shallow bounces. If these things are not happening, then it's not a good idea to be a bear. If these things are happening, trying to buy the dip might get you nailed. I'll tell you here and now, if the bear break thesis is correct - lots of people will end up margin called. They will buy the dip and then think they can average out of it buying more and there will not be deep enough rallies to accommodate this. They'll progressively pick up bigger and bigger positions. Hope and feel it's all over on the first major bounce and then the worst part of the trend will come. If the sell off is strong, people should respect the risk of it. To end on an optimistic note - if we make a low somewhere in the area we traded today that is almost always bullish. I'd certainly be bull bias to a new high and if we break the classic spike out risk I'd be ultra bullish. I strongly believe the trend for the following couple years will be set in this area. I think that's been foreseeable for years. If the downside risk can be overcome - I think the easy bull markets that followed would surpass the ones we've seen. Or this could become the worse sell off you've seen in SPX. It's not a time to be overly cocky. Protect risk and be ready to benefit from any outcome. Big money is likely to be available within the next 9 months. Next 3 if it's a bear thing.
SP:SPXShort
by holeyprofit
US 500 Index – Upside Rally Facing A Ratings ChallengeThe US 500 index recorded a 2-month high of 5958 on Friday before settling back to close the week at 5922, an incredible 24% rally from the index's tariff induced lows at 4799 seen on April 7th. Impressive indeed. However, late on Friday evening the ratings agency Moody’s downgraded US government debt from its top credit rating of Aa1 to Aaa, citing a ballooning budget deficit and no clear plan to narrow this in the future. This Moody’s decision generated some weekend headlines in the financial press around the sustainability of President Trump’s plans for unfunded tax cuts as the US economy slows due to his recent trade tariff announcements. This even led to a comment on the downgrade from the much-respected US Treasury Scott Bessant, who played down concerns over the US government debt and attempted to reassure investors the Trump administration is determined to bring down spending and grow the economy. Early Monday Trading: Given the extent of the recent upside rally to just short of the physiological 6000 level, perhaps unsurprisingly, early Monday trading possibly suggests traders are reacting with caution to this news, with the US 500 trading down 0.6% at 5888, at time of writing. However, there is a long trading week ahead and it will be important to see how markets respond once US traders are back at their desks. Technical Update: Looking For Potential Support and Resistance Levels This Week As seen on the chart below, the move in the US 500 index from the April 7th low at 4799 into last Friday’s latest recovery high at 5958 completed a rally of 24%, as recent concerns over global trade eased. However, Friday’s downgrade of US debt may prompt some traders to question the sustainability of the current advance, even concluding it is something that could lead to the potential for fresh price weakness. With that in mind, let’s look at possible technical levels in the US 500 that can be monitored this week to gauge the next potential directional price risks Potential Support Levels: The first possible support level to focus on if a more extended phase of price weakness is seen, may be the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of May price strength which stands at 5813. While by no means a guarantee of continued declines, if closing breaks of 5813 are seen, a more extended price correction may then be on the cards, which could suggest tests of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, which stands at 5722, or even 5575, equal to the May 7th session low, are possible. Potential Resistance Levels: Previous price highs can be viewed by traders as possible resistance levels, as having previously marked a point where selling pressure has been found, it may be the case again. As such, with the latest price strength trading close to 5988/6007, which is an area where sellers were previously found between February 26th 2025 and March 3rd 2025, this may now be a resistance focus for some. However, closing breaks of this 5988/6007 price range may lead to attempts at further strength, with the next resistance perhaps then marked by 6144, which is the February 19th 2025 all-time high. The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by Pepperstone
SPX (S&P 500) – Double Top Rejection or Fakeout? Major BreakdownThe S&P 500 just got REJECTED at the key supply zone near 5,842, a level we’ve tested multiple times since Q1. This looks like a potential double top, and the rejection wick is no joke! Here’s what’s cooking: 1. Strong Supply Rejection: Price failed to break and hold above the 5,842 level – this zone has now acted as a wall for weeks. Clear signs of exhaustion from the bulls. 2. Bearish Setup in Play: If price fails to reclaim 5,842 fast, there’s room to fall toward: 5,044.09 – Previous breakout zone 4,091.47 – Major demand (high volume node & previous consolidation base) 3. Clean Risk-to-Reward Bearish Play: Short entries from the supply zone with stops above recent highs could offer great R:R down to the 4,000 zone. 4. Macro Context: This rejection comes at a time when economic uncertainty is rising – a correction may already be in motion. Watch for institutional exits. Trade Plan: Bias: Bearish below 5,842 Confirmation: Break and close below 5,700 for momentum Target Zones: 5,044 and 4,091 Invalidation: Daily close above 5,900 Is SPX done pumping or will bulls defend? Drop your thoughts – Short or Long? Like & follow for real-time updates!
SP:SPXShort
by FrankFx14