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US500.F trade ideas

SPX500 Long Trade Setup Analysis (1D Timeframe - Blackbull)SPX500 is at a crucial inflection point. Will the support hold, or are we breaking down? Previous ideas setup identified on 11th January has now come into fruition: 📈 Current Setup: 📈 The SPX500 is approaching major resistance at 6,663.37 - the 0.618 Fibonacci Extension of the most recent high timeframe move dating back to July 2024 - present. The previous low in July 2024 also happens to be the previous touch of this same ascending channel. previous touch of this ascending channel) Check out our previously published long term outlook on the SPX (view it out at the bottom of this publication). 🔹 Right now, we can see price is testing the channels lower supporting trend line, which lines up nicely with previous structure support, and a 0.38% Fibonacci Retracement of the August 2024-present move. Having multiple confluence of supporting indications, as well as aligning with our longer time perspective on higher timeframe direction, it is likely we will see a bounce up from here. 📉 A failure to bounce here however could either be a fake out, or the top of the SPX. We do not believe this is the top, and we will not short should price break down further. We will sit back and monitor looking for a new entry on the lower Fibonacci levels highlighted in our charts, with tight stops to minimise risk. 📍 Key Resistance Levels (Potential Rejection Zones): 🎯 6,663.37 – 0.618 Fib extension + channel resistance + previous higher time frame idea (found at the bottom of this publication) 🎯 6,832.13 – 0.764 Fib extension, final inversion trigger for bears 🎯 7,000 – Psychological round-number top, multi-year equilibrium ceiling 📍 Key Support Levels: ❗ 5,755.70 – 0.382 Fib retracement, 4x-tested structural support 🔻 5,624.61 – Channel midpoint convergence 📉 5,362.03 – 0.764 Fib retracement, final long opportunity supporting the idea of a 6650 All Time High, below this level leads to invalidation and bearish sentiment. 🚀 Bullish Scenario (Anticipated Play Before Long Term Reversal): 🟢 Entry : Touch of channel support, previous structure support, 0.38 Fib 5,755.13 (validated sustained close). 🎯 Take Profit 1 : 6,150 (Previous high). 🎯 Take Profit 2 : 6,429 (-0.272 Fib extension). 🎯 Take Profit 3 : 6,575 (See previous idea at the bottom of this publiation). 🔴 Stop Loss : Below 5,629 (Bull invalidation). ✅ Justification: 🔹The SPX has seen a dip recently, mostly as a result of geopolitical tension (see below), however we believe based on our technical analysis both here, and our long term high time frame analysis that we will see the SPX push up one final time over the coming months before the bears take control. 🔹 Seasonal strength in early March and potential Fed dovishness could fuel momentum. 📉 Bearish Scenario (Primary expectation once 6650 is reached): ❌ Invalidation Level : Sustained close above 7,000 (Multi-decade equilibrium barrier). 🔻 Downside Short-Term Targets: 5,755.70 – 0.382 Fib + channel support. 5,624.61 – Mid-channel gravity. 5,362.03 – 0.764 Fib extension + recent channel low. 🔻 Downside Long-Term Targets: 5,500 – 0.382 Fib 4,700 – 0.618 Fib Retracement & previous high 4,300 – 0.764 Fib Retracement - Unlikely, but possible. ✅ Justification: ❗ Please read - ❗ Higher Time Frame Long Term Analysis - ❗ Geopolitical/economic risks (see fundamentals below) could accelerate downside. ⚡ Key Takeaways: 🔹 SPX500 is at a crossroads : Bearish reversal likely if rejected at 6,663.37–6,832.13 . 🔹 Breakdown below 5,755.70 confirms channel breakdown, targeting 5,362.03 . 🔹 Bullish bias requires hold above 6,832.13 ; otherwise, bears dominate. 📰 Fundamental Catalysts (March 8–15, 2025): Economic Releases: 📅 Mar 10 : U.S. CPI Inflation (High Impact) – Core CPI at 3.2% y/y could force Fed hawkishness. 📅 Mar 12 : Retail Sales (High Impact) – Expected 0.3% MoM post-holiday slowdown. 📅 Mar 14 : FOMC Meeting & Dot Plot – Fed may hike +50bps ahead of 2025 elections. 🌐 Geopolitical Developments: 📅 Mar 11 : Belgium Elections – Risk of coalition fragmentation delaying EU fiscal unity. 📅 Mar 13 : Middle East Tensions – Reported Iran-Israel escalation impacts energy markets. 📅 Ongoing : Brexit 2.0 Developments – UK-EU trade deal negotiations resume, GBP volatility. 📊 Market Sentiment: 📉 Equity Flows : Hedge funds remain underweight equities (BofA survey), suggesting short-term liquidity-driven rally. 📉 Options Market : SPX500 gamma gap at 6,800 killed by recent churn, hedging flows may cap tops. 🎯 Portfolio Management Strategy: 💰 Buy Entry : At 5,755.70 (0.382 Fib confluence). 🎯 Take Profit : 6,570 (Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:6). ❌ Stop Loss : Below 5,624.61 (50% Fib). As price approaches 6,600, consider allocating capital to long-dated puts on the SPX500 to hedge against volatility spikes. A confirmed break below 5,755.70 would signal a shift toward bearish regimes, aligning with geopolitical tensions and potential Fed tightening.
BLACKBULL:US500.FLong
by Who-Is-Caerus
SPX edges towards the final buy zoneSPX has an anticipated market top of 6650 (view our long term analysis below) We can see that the ascending channel which the SPX is trading in has been respected since October 2022 (below idea) Now that the equilibrium level has been broken, we would expect to see a test of the lower channel support trend line, which lines up nicely with previous structure, as well as a 38 Fib retracement on the most recent move. Multiple confluences strengthen the validity of a particular level and add weight to our decision. Therefore, we will wait for the SPX to come down and test this level at around 5756 which could take another month. Sitting on our hands, being patient, waiting only for the most likely trades is the logical way to play. Long term SPX:
BLACKBULL:US500.FLong
by Who-Is-Caerus
Tariff Wars, NFP & Range-Bound Markets – What’s Next? Tariff Wars, NFP & Range-Bound Markets – What’s Next? | SPX Market Analysis 07 Mar 2025 The market is acting like a drunk sailor, stumbling between a sideways range and a downsloping channel, leaving traders scratching their heads and redrawing trendlines daily. If this feels frustrating, welcome to the real evolution of price action—the part nobody talks about. Traders love to show off the perfect trade after it happens, but the real challenge is navigating price movement as it unfolds. One day, it’s a range, the next, it’s a channel, and by the time you’ve figured it out, the market’s already moved on. For now, I remain hedged and in a no-lose position, watching how this range resolves.With Trump pulling a 2018-style tariff play, and NFP looming, we could be in for a big move soon—or just more of the same slow churn. Either way, I’ll be ready when the market finally decides to commit. --- Price action is in full “make up its mind later” mode, bouncing between a short-term range and what could evolve into a downsloping channel. The only certainty? Traders who force trades in this mess will get chewed up. The problem with trendlines and pattern analysis is that they’re constantly evolving. One day, it looks like a clean range, the next, it’s a slanted consolidation, and suddenly, what looked like a breakout yesterday is just noise today. This is why I never rely on one rigid framework—instead, I follow my six money-making patterns that adapt as price action develops. At the moment, I see three scenarios playing out. If price respects the range, we get a bounce toward the highs. If it breaks the range, we could see a sharp downside continuation. And if we keep drifting in no-man’s land, then it’s just more of the same. Forcing trades when the market hasn’t committed is a recipe for frustration. Thankfully, I don’t need to guess. My hedge is holding firm, keeping me in a no-lose position while the market sorts itself out. I’m not eagerly adding trades or picking a direction yet—I’m waiting for the market to show its hand first. Meanwhile, in tariff news, Trump just announced a temporary removal of tariffs under the USMCA agreement until April 2nd. If this feels like déjà vu, that’s because it is. The market is mirroring the 2018-19 trade war, where even in a declining market, we saw strong rallies. No two market cycles are ever exactly the same, but they do tend to rhyme. So, will NFP be the trigger that finally kicks this market into gear? Or will we be stuck with another day of watching paint dry on the charts? Either way, I’ll stay patient, stay hedged, and be ready for when the next real move arrives. --- 📢Did you know? In 1987, a trader at Salomon Brothers coined the phrase “Dead Cat Bounce” to describe a brief market rally during a larger downturn. The idea? Even a dead cat will bounce if dropped from high enough. 💡The Lesson? Short-term rallies don’t always mean the trend has changed—a bounce isn’t the same as a recovery.
SP:SPX
by MrPhilNewton
SPX Daily Analysis - 7 Mar 2025 Pullback or Breakout? • The daily candlestick was a bear bar with a prominent tail below, closing above the March 4 low. • The market gap lower at the open and formed a pullback (bounce) in the first two hours. The market then reversed lower to retest the March 4 low and broke below it. The breakout lacked follow-through selling and stalled around the March 4 low area. • The bulls see the market trading in a broad bull channel and want the move to continue for months. They want an endless pullback bull trend. • They want a retest of the all-time high (Dec 6) followed by a breakout and trend resumption. They see the current move (Mar 6) as a bear leg within the trading range. • They want a reversal from a double bottom bull flag (Jan 13 and Mar 6), a wedge bull flag (Nov 9, Jan 13, and Mar 6) and a wedge (Feb 25, Feb 28, and Mar 6). • They hope the bottom of the 22-week trading range will act as support. They want a failed breakout below the January 13 low. • At the least, they want a retest of the middle of the trading range (around the 20-day EMA). • They must create consecutive bull bars closing near their highs to show they are back in control. • If the market trades lower, they want the November 4 or October 3 low to act as support. • The bears got a reversal from a higher high major trend reversal, a wedge top (Dec 6, Jan 24, and Feb 19), and a smaller double top (Jan 24 and Feb 19). • They see the market as being in a 22-week trading range. • They got a bear leg to retest the January 13 low and hope to get a breakout followed by a measured move based on the height of the 22-week trading range. • So far, the breakout below the January 13 low is not yet strong. • The move down is in a tight bear channel which increases the odds of at least a small second leg sideways to down after a pullback. • The move down has a lot of overlapping candlesticks which also indicates that the bears are not yet as strong as they hoped to be. • If the market trades higher, they want the bear trend line or the 20-day EMA to act as resistance followed by a retest of the recent leg extreme low (now Mar 6). • So far, the market is trading in a 22-week trading range. • The SPX broke below the January 13 low (Mar 6) but the follow-through selling is still somewhat limited. • The selling pressure in the move down is stronger (consecutive bear bars, bigger bear bars) than the weaker buying pressure (bull bars with no follow-through buying). • The move down is strong enough for traders to expect at least a small second leg sideways to down after a pullback (bounce). • For now, traders will see if the bears can continue to create follow-through selling below the January 13 low. • Or will the market stall around the current levels and form a minor pullback (bounce) instead? • The bulls need to create consecutive bull bars closing near their highs to show that they are back in control. • The bears must create a strong breakout below the January 13 low with follow-through selling to convince traders that a breakout could be underway.
SP:SPX
by Tech_Trader88
1
$SPX: wait for the confirmation! Hello everyone! Today, I want to publish a chart showing the relationship between CBOE:SPX and the SPX/M2SL. Briefly, the idea is that if the ratio reaches its extreme (the upper or the lower Bollinger Band), the SPX will bounce. I marked it with colorful arrows, and the vertical lines show the exact timing of the decision moments, with the following direct moving in the opposite direction. M2Sl is simply the M2 Money Stock measure, which is a key indicator of the money supply in the United States. It includes all components of M1 (such as cash and checking deposits) plus several less-liquid assets like savings deposits, small-denomination time deposits, and retail money market funds (according to the fred.stlouisfed.org) If the SPX/M2SL confirms its double bottom this time, we may see a relief rally (even in the short term for the current bearish environment). I like this framework, it is slow, and helps to find some ground under your feet. Stay profitable!
SP:SPXLong
by ChartsPlusFun
S&P500 INTRADAY Bearish energy build up below 5920Bearish Scenario: The intraday sentiment remains bearish, with the recent price action appearing as a corrective pullback. The key resistance level to watch is 5920—a rejection at this level could trigger renewed selling pressure. A move lower could target initial support at 5730, with further downside extending toward 5624 and potentially 5600 if bearish momentum persists. Bullish Scenario: Alternatively, a breakout above 5920 and a daily close higher would negate the bearish outlook and shift momentum in favor of the bulls. This could open the door for a rally toward 6000, followed by 6052 and ultimately 6160 if buying pressure continues. Summary: The S&P 500 is at a critical decision point, with 5920 acting as the key level. A rejection here favors further downside, while a breakout and sustained strength above it could signal a bullish reversal. Traders should closely monitor price action for confirmation of the next move. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by TradeNation
Markets Bouncing Like Gummy Bears – What’s Next?Markets Bouncing Like Gummy Bears – What’s Next? | SPX Market Analysis 06Mar 2025 The market is bouncing around like a gummy bear on gummy juice—up one day, down the next, sometimes both in the same session. But now, a short-term price range is forming, making trade setups much clearer. This new range, which is easier to see on ES futures, aligns perfectly with my 6 money-making patterns, guiding bullish, bearish, and neutral scenarios. ADD is at an upper extreme, overnight futures are selling off, and we have tariff wars & red flag news on deck—so patience continues to rule the day. The market is setting up for its next big move, and I’ll be ready when it fires. --- Deeper Dive Analysis: The markets continue to whipsaw traders, creating choppy and indecisive price action. But amidst the chaos, a short-term range is forming, providing clearer trade setups based on my 6 money-making patterns. 📌 The Market Setup – A Tight Range is Emerging A short-term, well-defined price range is forming (visible on ES futures) This creates clear "what to do" signals based on my system Three possible scenarios: Bullish breakout – if buyers take control Bearish breakdown – if sellers push through support Neutral range-bound action – if price continues to chop around 📌 Key Market Observations Today ADD is at an upper relative extreme – signalling a possible short-term pullback Price is near the upper boundary of the range – a natural resistance level Overnight futures are already selling off – adding to the bearish bias 📌 What Could Trigger the Next Big Move? Tariff wars unfolding – potential for market-moving headlines Red flag news this month – major economic reports could act as a catalyst Markets at a tipping point – just waiting for the right push 📌 How I’m Trading This: ✅ Hedged for movement in either direction—no need to predict, just react ✅ Waiting for confirmation before making a move—patience wins ✅ Watching for breakouts or failures at range extremes This is a textbook setup—range-bound markets lead to breakouts, and I’ll be ready to capitalize on the move when it comes. --- Fun Fact 📢 Did you know? In 2009, a Twitter hoax claiming President Obama was injured caused the S&P 500 to drop 1% in minutes, wiping out billions in market value—before bouncing back when the truth came out. 💡 The Lesson? The market reacts to headlines before verifying facts—a reminder that patience and confirmation matter in trading.
SP:SPX
by MrPhilNewton
SPX500 - Bulls Need Strong Entry Bar - 6 Mar 2025 The report below uses the Spy chart which is the Normal Trading House. • The market traded lower earlier to retest the March 4 low but formed a higher low. The market then reversed higher into the close, closing the daily candlestick as a bull inside bar closing in its upper half. • The bulls see the market trading in a broad bull channel and want the move to continue for months. They want an endless pullback bull trend. • They want a retest of the all-time high (Dec 6) followed by a breakout and trend resumption. They see the current move (Mar 4) as a bear leg within the trading range. • They want a reversal from a double bottom bull flag (Jan 13 and Mar 4) and a wedge (Feb 25, Feb 28, and Mar 4). • They hope the bottom of the 22-week trading range will act as support. They want a failed breakout below the January 13 low. So far, the breakout below the trading range low has limited follow-through selling. • At the least, they want a retest of the middle of the trading range (around the 20-day EMA). They must create a strong entry bar today (March 6) to increase the odds of the bull leg beginning. • If the market trades lower, they want the November 4 or October 3 low to act as support. • The bears got a reversal from a higher high major trend reversal, a wedge top (Dec 6, Jan 24, and Feb 19), and a smaller double top (Jan 24 and Feb 19). • They see the market as being in a 22-week trading range. • They got a bear leg to retest the January 13 low and hope to get a breakout followed by a measured move based on the height of the 22-week trading range. • So far, the breakout below the January 13 low has limited follow-through selling. • If the market trades higher, they want the bear trend line or the 20-day EMA to act as resistance. • They want at least a small second leg sideways to down to retest the March 4 low after a pullback (bounce). • So far, the market is trading in a 22-week trading range. • The SPX broke below the January 13 low (Mar 4) but the follow-through selling has been limited. • The move down is strong enough for traders to expect at least a small second leg sideways to down after a pullback (bounce). • For now, traders will see if the bulls can create a strong bull entry bar today. • Or will the market trade slightly higher, but stall and close with a long tail or a bear body instead? • The bulls need to create consecutive bull bars closing near their highs to show that they are back in control. • The bears must create a strong breakout below the January 13 low with follow-through selling to convince traders a breakout could be underway. • Traders may BLSH (Buy Low, Sell High) within the trading range until there is a breakout from either direction with follow-through buying/selling.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by Tech_Trader88
2
2022 Déjà Vu? Markets Stalling at a Critical Level2022 Déjà Vu? Markets Stalling at a Critical Level | SPX Market Analysis 05 Mar 2025 We expected roller-coaster swings this week, and the market hasn’t disappointed. The price action feels oddly familiar, reminiscent of early 2022, when a failed all-time high attempt led to a slow, choppy bear market. Right now, the market is stuck at a key decision point—dithering at the lower range like it can’t decide whether to break down or bounce back up. ADD data leans slightly bullish, suggesting a possible range-bound chop with an upward bias, unless sellers take full control and push us into the February/March correction cycle. No need to guess—I’m hedged and ready for either outcome. The only thing left to do? Wait for the market to tip its hand. --- Deeper Dive Analysis: The market is moving exactly as expected—lots of noise, little commitment, and price action that mirrors early 2022, just before the slow-motion bear market began. 📌 What’s Happening Right Now? Markets failed to make new highs and are now chopping near the range lows The last time we saw this structure? Early 2022 before a major shift downward Price is hesitating, signalling traders are waiting for a catalyst 📌 Two Possible Outcomes: 1️⃣ A Range Reversal (Bullish Scenario) ADD data suggests a short-term bullish bias A grinding, sideways move with an upward tilt is likely Ideal for small, quick trades—but no trend confirmation yet 2️⃣ The February-March Correction Cycle (Bearish Scenario) If support fails, sellers could accelerate the move lower Seasonal trends often bring a correction this time of year Watching for signs of a decisive breakdown 📌 How I’m Approaching This Market: ✅ Staying hedged so that a move in either direction is fine ✅ Being patient—waiting for a strong move before committing capital ✅ Avoiding impulse trades—letting the market tell me what’s next Traders who rush in too early this week could get chopped up in the indecision, while those who wait for a clear confirmation will be in the best position to capitalize. --- Fun Fact 📢 Did you know? The biggest one-day percentage drop in history wasn’t 2008—it was Black Monday in 1987, when the Dow crashed 22.6% in a single day. 💡 The Lesson? Markets can collapse out of nowhere, but structured traders with hedges and a system don’t panic—they profit.
SP:SPX
by MrPhilNewton
BEAR 2025 IN NUMBERS (2.0)🐻 In my May post last year about the U.S. stock market’s mid-term cycle, I promised to estimate the probable amplitude of the forecasted correction in the current cycle. "When should we expect the bottom of the current 4-year cycle? If we are near the top, considering the current 20-week base cycle that has just begun, we can preliminarily talk about October-November 2024. The average correction from the top of a 4-year cycle ranges from 20% to 50%. Once the cycle’s peak is reached, we will be able to estimate the approximate correction level." 👉 I already made a numerical forecast in early September, but it turned out to be premature. Another base cycle was needed to form the peak of the long cycle, which is now in the correction phase. ☝️ Assuming that: 🔸 The December 9 extreme forecast, made at the beginning of 2024, became the peak of the 4-year and 50-week cycles. On the futures chart, this level is the absolute maximum—see the futures chart. 🔸 The double top of the current 20-week base cycle at the January 29 extreme forecast confirmed the end of the 4-year trend. This level can be taken as the starting point for calculating target correction levels. ☝️ The calculation is based on technical support levels and the following assumptions: 1️⃣ The average correction from the top of a 4-year cycle ranges from 20% to 50%. 2️⃣ When coinciding with the 4-year cycle, the final phase of the 50-week DJIA cycle often tests or breaks the low of the previous 50-week cycle. 3️⃣ The start of a new 4-year cycle will be bullish. Ahead of a more severe crash in the next 1.5 years due to the 7-year crisis cycle, the risk of a stock market drop greater than 25% in the current base cycle is low. 👉 The resulting target levels are: 🔸 **DJIA** -17% to 1st level **38,000** 🔸 **DJIA** -20% to 2nd level **36,000** 🔸 **SPX** -20% to 1st level **4,900** 🔸 **SPX** -25% to 2nd level **4,600** ⚠️ The current 4-year cycle has clearly been prolonged, resembling the situation during the 1987 crash. The next 4-year cycle may be shortened to 3.5 years. Remember that the new 4-year cycle should complete the current 7-year crisis cycle, bottoming out in 2028, with tops in summer 2025 and spring 2026. The timing is perfect so far.
CBOE:SPX
by irinawest
SPX chart update after calling moves to the $ for 3 yearsHere is the 1st chart I did of SPX back in Jan 2022: I called the drop to the yellow line on chart. Nailed it to nearly the exact $. Then in October 2023 I mentioned this: The rally was confirmed for the next 6 months minimum. Then in Jan 2024 I posted a red horizontal line as target for the rally: Now you can see on current bottom chart that price hit the red line target. This chart setup you see on bottom chart also shows relevance to the 1st chart I did on SPX where when the blue EMA8 went below the orange MA21, a drop happened as per the red X marks and price changes shown on chart. This is close to happening currently which is easier to see on the top chart as I give a close up view on current price action and the EMA/MA's. Are we about to see a drop as per yellow price change on chart or can SPX bounce from here and move up to the green horizontal line on chart? The EMA/MA crossunder will tell us. Even though I called the moves all correct previously, at this time in the markets, things are alot trickier so I cannot say with conviction this time around as to which way it will go. I will update the analysis once the bounce or cross under is confirmed.
TVC:SPX
by Pro_Trader_HTBB