SPX PRICE ACTION JAN05 2025Welcome to SPX weekly. I have discussed in depth price action of SPX and if you have any doubts feel free to leave a message or comment below.
NOTE:BE CAREFUL IF YOU ARE LONG
US500 trade ideas
SPX JAN 7 2025| READ DESCRIPTION |Here we need to understand the power of money & risk management.If it goes to 6200 from here then our RR is just 1: 1.08 .
The RR is the heart & soul of a trade. One should be discplined enought to understand this & if you are not getting minimum 1:2 & I have used the word minimum, then there is no point taking that particular trade.
You need to think what if a trade goes against me?
Always be open to both sides understanding the RR
If you are not following RR & rules then this business will eat all your wealth
You mind is actually the most powerful thing in the world.
S&P500 - Preparing For The Final Bullrun!S&P500 ( TVC:SPX ) is still heading higher:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Although the S&P500 has been creating new all time highs for the past couple of months, charts are clearly telling us that this bullrun is not over yet. We already saw two textbook cycles of +90% each and during 2025, we will see the completion of the third and final bullrun.
Levels to watch: $7.000
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
S&P500 no major pullbacks expected in 2025. Year-end Target 7200The S&P500 (SPX) has started the first week of the new year (2025) on a positive note following a red December. In fact December was only the 3rd red month of the whole 2024. Based on its 16-year Channel Up pattern, this bullish trend isn't expected to slowdown in 2025.
In fact, no major pull-backs are expected this year, as the end sequence of 2024 resembles the August 2013, which led to a very bullish 18-month period after.
As you can see, the start of the Channel Up, which was the bottom of the 2008 - 2009 U.S. Housing Crisis followed the same stages as the pattern after the March 2020 COVID bottom. The bottoms have been stage (a) with (b) being the first short-term pull-back and (c) the second, which was also a 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) test. It appears that we are currently on stage (d), where as explained led the way to a bullish 18-month period.
The peak of the early Channel Up pattern was on the 2.786 Fibonacci extension from the stage (c) bottom and the 18-month period ended on the 1.382 time Fib extension. If we take the same measurements on the post COVID pattern, the 1.382 time Fib extension lands on October 2026. For 2025 alone we can expect a +23.73% rise from the last red candle of (d), if the post August 2013 12-month pattern is followed, which gives us an end-of-year (2025) Target of 7200.
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US500 in a Possible Bullish ABC WaveUS500 in a Possible Bullish ABC Wave
Since January 6th, the price has decreased by nearly 2.45%, from 6018 to 5871. This decline formed a 5-wave movement. It appears the bottom was completed at 5871, and the price may now start forming the C wave of the ABC pattern.
If everything proceeds as expected, US500 should develop as shown in the chart, with resistance areas found near 5927, 5962, and 5994.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
S&P 500 - Elliott Wave Count Since - 2009The S&P 500 (SPX) may have completed an extended Elliott - Impulse wave.
The movement began in March 2009 and counts as complete at the December 2024 peak.
Note the very long-term RSI double bearish divergence.
If this count is correct the SPX could be in a bear market that lasts into 2026.
Major support is the October 2022 bottom.
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): Short to support area 5718 (Wave C).Dear colleagues, I believe that the downward movement will continue within the correction (A B C). I expect wave “C” to start moving very soon.
I think that the nearest target is the area of 5718 level, because there is a strong support area.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
S&P 500: Bearish Momentum BuildsAs we move further into 2025, the S&P 500 continues to show signs of weakness, intensifying the bearish outlook from my last post. The Rising Channel breakdown and Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern remain dominant, with the price now trading firmly below the 50 EMA.
Attempts to reclaim the Rising Channel have failed, confirming that the long-term bullish structure is no longer in play. The neckline of the H&S pattern, previously broken, has become a strong resistance zone, reinforcing the bearish momentum. The 50 EMA has flipped to resistance, making it even harder for bulls to regain control.
Currently, the 200 EMA is providing critical support. If this level fails, the downside momentum could accelerate significantly, leading to much lower targets. Key levels to watch include 5,687.33, 5,600.45, and the channel projection target of 5,119.26.
Bulls will need to defend the 200 EMA and push the price back above the 50 EMA to have a chance at reversing this trend. Otherwise, the market seems poised for further downside. Let me know how you’re approaching this setup shorting, waiting for a bounce, or something else? Stay sharp and trade carefully! 🚀
Understanding Risk Asymmetry in a Table▮ Introduction
With TradingView's new table creation feature , you can easily create and customize tables to enhance your trading analysis and presentations.
In this article I'll use it to explain Risk Asymmetry .
Trading involves a constant evaluation of risk and reward .
One of the critical concepts that traders need to understand is risk asymmetry .
This concept highlights how losses and gains are not symmetrical.
In other words, the percentage gain required to recover from a loss is greater than the percentage loss itself.
This article explores risk asymmetry and illustrates it with a practical example.
▮ What is Risk Asymmetry?
Risk asymmetry refers to the disproportionate relationship between losses and the gains required to recover from those losses.
For instance, if you lose 10% of your investment, you need to gain more than 10% to get back to your original amount.
This is because the base amount has decreased after the loss.
Understanding risk asymmetry is crucial for traders because it affects their risk management strategies.
Knowing that larger losses require exponentially larger gains to recover can help traders make more informed decisions about their trades and risk exposure.
▮ Illustrating Risk Asymmetry
To illustrate risk asymmetry, let's consider an initial investment of $1000.
The table below shows the required gain to recover from various percentage losses:
Explanation:
- Loss (%): The percentage loss from the initial amount.
- Value Lost ($): The lost monetary value from the initial amount.
- Amount After Loss ($): The remaining amount after the loss.
- Required Gain for Recovery (%): The percentage gain required to recover to the initial amount.
This table highlights the asymmetry in trading losses and gains.
As the loss percentage increases, the required gain to recover the initial amount increases disproportionately.
For example, if you lose 50% of your initial amount ( $500 ), it is not enough for you to gain 50% , because the amount left after the loss is $500 , and a 50% gain on the amount of $500 is $250 , which would result in a total amount of $750 with a remaining loss of $250 !
So, the most important question is not how much can I win , but how much can I lose .
Curiosity:
Why 100% is not applicable (-) in this table?
When you lose 100% of your investment, you have lost all your capital. Therefore, there is no remaining amount to recover from, and it is impossible to gain back to the initial amount from zero. This is why the required gain are marked as not applicable.
▮ Conclusion
Understanding risk asymmetry can help traders in several ways:
1. Risk Management:
traders can set stop-loss levels to limit their losses and avoid the need for large gains to recover.
2. Position Sizing:
by understanding the potential impact of losses, traders can size their positions more conservatively.
3. Psychological Preparedness:
knowing the challenges of recovering from significant losses can help traders maintain discipline and avoid emotional decision-making.
It is one thing to lose 100% of a dollar on a casino bet; it is quite another to lose 100% of a lifetime's worth of capital.
Therefore, the larger the capital at stake, the smaller the amount of money that should ideally be risked.
Bearish drop?S&P500 (US500) has reacted off the pivot and could potentially drop to the 1st support which has been identified as a pullback support.
Pivot: 5,924.14
1st Support: 5,838.66
1st Resistance: 5,964.07
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
What do you think?Hello guys
We came with the analysis of us500.
There are two scenarios:
1- From here, open a long trade and move to the resistance range, and in case of a further drop, add volume at the second point.
2- Wait until the price reaches the resistance range and open a sale transaction in the two specified ranges.
What do you think?
*Trade safely with us*
Market Snapshot1. Excessive Speculation or Asset Bubbles
Preceding downturns, markets often experience speculative mania in certain sectors (e.g., 1929 stock bubble, 2008 housing bubble, 2000 tech bubble).
2. Monetary Policy Tightening
Central banks often raise interest rates or tighten monetary policy to combat inflation, reducing liquidity (e.g., Federal Reserve hikes in 1929, 1980, and 2008).
3. Leverage and Debt Crises
Excessive leverage among consumers, corporations, or financial institutions increases vulnerability (e.g., margin loans in 1929, subprime mortgages in 2008).
4. Overvaluation of Financial Assets
Markets often become overvalued based on metrics like P/E ratios, creating disconnects between prices and fundamentals (e.g., 1999-2000 tech stocks, 1929).
5. Liquidity Crises
A lack of liquidity or credit crunch exacerbates selloffs (e.g., 2008 banking crisis, 1987 Black Monday).
6. Geopolitical or Systemic Shocks
Unexpected shocks such as wars, oil crises, or pandemics trigger fear and uncertainty (e.g., OPEC oil embargo in 1973, COVID-19 in 2020).
7. Declining Consumer Confidence
Consumer sentiment falls due to high unemployment, inflation, or fear of recession, dampening spending and economic activity (e.g., 2008, 1980s).
8. Corporate Earnings Decline
Broad declines in corporate profits lead to stock selloffs (e.g., early 2000s dot-com bust, 2008 financial crisis).
9. Structural Economic Weakness
Economic imbalances or structural issues amplify downturns (e.g., overproduction in 1929, housing bubble in 2008, supply chain disruptions in 2020).
10. Psychological Panic and Loss of Trust
Fear and herd behavior lead to mass selloffs, deepening declines (e.g., 1929 panic selling, Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008).
Kickstart 2025: SPX GEX Outlook & Options InsightsNew Year, Renewed Energy — Critical Levels and Strategies for the Week
Critical Levels
Se detailed image below:
Above 5940 (HVL): Expect some “chop zone” between 5940 and 6000, but with a generally bullish bias based on our Auto-GEX Profiles until friday.
Above 6000: A gamma squeeze could ignite by Friday, pulling the index toward the next major resistance.
Below 5900: Significant bearish momentum may take hold, targeting around 5800 (PUT support), though this scenario seems less likely right now.
Gamma Conditions
Short DTE options (0–2 days) exhibit positive gamma, which tends to buoy prices and make steep sell-offs more difficult.
There’s notable IV skew in the very near-term expirations (01/08–01/09). Consider focusing on the Friday (01/10) and Monday (01/13) expirations for timespread strategies.
Summary
Upside: Holding above 5940 supports a move toward the 6000 target.
Above 6000: A gamma squeeze could propel the SPX higher.
Below 5900: Watch out for a stronger bearish move toward 5800.
IV and skew may be erratic this week, but the positive gamma backdrop favors upside momentum.
There are several announcements due this week. If price whipsaws around these times, remember it’s often directly tied to those scheduled news releases—try not to panic.
Wishing everyone a responsible and successful year of options trading in 2025!
Marz: Williams Forecast, Williams %R, Lead-Lag- Overlay Larry Williams annual forecast (dots on forecast are month markers aligned with chart)
- Williams %R: When above 80, market is strong, if goes below 80 sell
- Williams %R: When below 20, market is week, if goes above 20 buy
- Williams %R: Between 80 & 20, buy/sell reversals
- Use Michael Gayed weekly Lead-Lag Risk-On/Risk-Off as confirmation
- Use 200 day moving average as confirmation (orange line)
- Monthly Heiken-Ashi bars for longer-term trends, Weekly bars for shorter-term trends
Short Sellers: Liquidity Providers or Market Disruptors?█ Understanding Short Sellers: Liquidity Providers or Market Disruptors?
Short sellers often have a controversial reputation, viewed by many as market manipulators who profit from falling stock prices. However, recent research sheds light on an unexpected and valuable role they play: providing liquidity to the market, especially during critical moments like news releases. Let’s break down this concept in a way that’s approachable for everyone while maintaining the insights of the academic findings.
█ What Is Short Selling?
In simple terms, short selling is a trading strategy where an investor borrows shares of a stock, sells them, and hopes to buy them back later at a lower price to pocket the difference. While this might sound straightforward, it’s a high-risk activity because the potential losses are unlimited if the stock price rises instead of falling.
For long-term investors, the goal is usually to buy strong companies that will grow over time, benefiting from compounding returns and supporting broader economic growth. On the other hand, short selling tends to attract risk-seekers who aim to profit from price declines. Unfortunately, many inexperienced short sellers get burned by the complexities of market dynamics, including the balance of supply and demand for liquidity.
█ Why Is Short Selling Important?
Despite the risks, short sellers are essential to the financial markets. They help correct overpriced stocks and bring balance to valuations, contributing to more accurate pricing. Moreover, they provide critical insights during times of market euphoria or uncertainty.
One example of their importance is the role of short sellers during events like the “short squeezes” in GameStop or Volkswagen. These situations occur when a stock’s price skyrockets, often fueled by retail traders or unexpected news, forcing short sellers to buy back shares at higher prices. While dramatic, such events highlight the complex interaction between short selling and market liquidity.
█ A Fresh Perspective: Short Sellers as Liquidity Providers
Traditional thinking often casts short sellers as aggressive traders who demand liquidity—placing orders that consume existing bids or offers in the market. However, a recent study challenges this view, showing that some short sellers do the opposite: they provide liquidity.
Using transaction-level data, the study reveals that informed short sellers strategically supply liquidity by posting and maintaining limit orders. These orders help stabilize markets, especially during volatile periods like news days. This behavior contrasts with the common perception of short sellers as disruptive forces, instead positioning them as contributors to market efficiency.
█ Key Findings from the Research
The research, titled Stealthy Shorts: Informed Liquidity Supply, presents several critical insights:
⚪ Liquidity-Supplying vs. Liquidity-Demanding Short Sales:
Liquidity-supplying short sellers place limit orders, offering to sell shares at specific prices.
Liquidity-demanding short sellers use market orders, which take the best available prices.
The study found that liquidity-supplying short sales are more predictive of future stock returns than liquidity-demanding ones.
⚪ Predictive Power of Liquidity-Supplying Shorts:
Stocks with high levels of liquidity-supplying short sales underperform those with low levels over a 21-day holding period.
This pattern suggests that these short sellers have a long-term informational edge.
⚪ Impact on Price Discovery:
By providing liquidity, these short sellers help narrow bid-ask spreads, making it easier for other investors to enter or exit positions at favorable prices.
⚪ Informed Trading:
Liquidity-supplying short sellers often act on information not yet fully reflected in stock prices. For example, they are particularly active and accurate around news days when fresh information enters the market.
█ Implications for Investors and Regulators
The findings challenge regulators and market participants to rethink their views on short sellers. While short selling is often criticized for its potential to destabilize markets, this study highlights a more nuanced role: informed short sellers contribute to market liquidity and efficiency. For everyday investors, this means that short sellers aren’t just betting against companies but also helping ensure that stock prices reflect their true value over time.
█ Takeaways for Beginners
If you’re new to investing, here’s what you should know:
Short selling is risky and generally not recommended for beginners. The potential for unlimited losses makes it a strategy better suited for experienced traders.
Short sellers play a vital role in financial markets by helping correct mispricings and improving liquidity.
Understanding the mechanics of liquidity supply and demand can provide valuable insights into how markets function.
█ Final Thoughts
This research highlights the dual role of short sellers, particularly the most informed ones, as both traders and market stabilizers. By offering liquidity and acting on long-lived information, these traders help create more efficient markets, benefiting everyone from retail investors to large institutions. As always, a deeper understanding of market dynamics can empower better investment decisions and help you navigate the complexities of the financial world with confidence.
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Disclaimer
This is an educational study for entertainment purposes only.
The information in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on evaluating their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
Bearish Omen For SPXWho else noticed the deteriorating market breadth for SPX 500?
Now only 52% of stocks above their 200 day moving averages.
Rising price of the index is hiding this bearish omen.
S&P500: bottomed on Inverse Head and Shoulders.S&P500 turned bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 42.446, MACD = -21.350, ADX = 28.601) as it is under the 4H MA50 since Tuesday. Even though it is on a 4H MA200 rejection, the short term technical pattern that has emerged is an Inverse Head and Shoulders, about to complete the Right Shoulder. With the long term pattern being a Channel Up, we can technically target its top (TP = 6,200), which is under the 2.0 Fib target of the Inverse Head and Shoulders.
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SPX - Short Term Bear - Swing Trade (Continuation)This is a continuation to my previously posted trade...
Unfortunately I stopped out on the previous trade. That's my fault. There's additional analysis I did that helped me understand where I missed. However, the pattern is still very much in tact and the opportunity still exists.
Here's a summary of what I go through in the video, but most important is watch the video to get the full details to better understand the observations.
1hr Chart:
After reviewing the weekly, daily, 4hr, 1hr, 5min, 1min charts I recognized the most important indicator for the current prices is the 1hr chart and most important the 50MA crossing down on the 200MA.
In addition, there are additional indicators that currently and historically are most important for this setup. Here are the 5 mentioned in the video.
- H&S Pattern/Triple Top/Divergence initial formation
- Cross down on Strong Support Line
- Retest/Fail Strong Support Line
- A wave up/down, forming a downward trendline
- QQE Signal triggering short as it approaches the channel support line towards a break
Historically there have been 4 instances since 2022 when the 50MA has crossed below the 200MA on the 1hr chart
July 26, 2024 - -5.0% in 48 bars (5-6 trading days) from time of cross to bottom of big move
Apr 15, 2024 - -3.70% 35 bars (7 trading days) from time of cross to bottom of big move
Aug 10. 2023 - -3.75% 40 bars (7 trading days) from time of cross to bottom of big move
Feb 24. 2023 - -5.8% 75 bars (10 trading days) from time of cross to bottom of big move
As mentioned in the video, it has been 7 trading days since the current cross of the 50MA of the 200MA, however, it's unique that the cross took place during the low volume holiday trading period which may have an effect on timing compared to historical moves.
Please watch the video for more in depth insight into the historical pattern formations and the relationship to the current price action along with my prediction and trade potential.
Fundamental Support:
Is still intact from the prior trade
- Buffer Indicator 203.7% (Near all time highs)
- Buffet portfolio at highest cash level since 2008 (325B)
- Shiller PE at 37.2, near 2022 peak of 38, Dot com bubble of 44
- FED announced fewer rate cuts in 2025
- Core PCE at 2.8% and rising since June 2024, above 2% FED target
- Inverted Yield Curve is no longer inverted as of Sep 2024, the longest (793 days) and deepest inversion in history. All previous sustained inverted yield curves (8 Total since 1960) except 1 were followed by a recession within 6-12 months once the yield curve was no longer inverted.
Economic Data:
- Next significant economic data is ADP employment report Wed Jan 8th and Unemployment Rate Fri Jan 10th
- A lower or higher employment figure than forecast could move the market and is a potential risk to the short position. However, I went back and reviewed previous employment reports and market movements, and basically whatever the trend the market was in at the time of publication, it continued to move in, so I'm not overly concerned.
- Next week PPI and CPI will be published on Tues Jan 14th and Wed Jan 15th respectively. These are both potential movers if they were to come in lower/higher, as it may impact the % chance of FED cuts.
- Trump inauguration on Monday Jan 20th, also falling on Martin Luther King Day (Markets Closed). I would anticipate potential positive market reaction following his inauguration given the pro-business policies and potential rally, so this is a risk.
Overall:
If you've watched the video, you can see that the chart patterns historically match up very well to the current. Again, history doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes. There's no sure thing in this business, however, considering all the factors, I find this to be a solid technical and fundamental trade and given the dominos fall in line I will be taking a position.
Current Position:
I currently have not taken a position on this trade. I am waiting for the QQE Short signal as mentioned in the video, or any other relevant move to give me the green light.
However, here's what I'm looking for if all goes to plan...I will update in the notes if/when I take a position.
SPXS Call Options
Strike $6.00
Expiration Jan 24th, based on the estimated timeframe mentioned in the video
Option Price: Ideally .20-.30
Options: 50-100 depending on my confidence in the chart and price above
Stop: 1/2 my entry price
Target:
Given SPXS is 3x Bear the S&P...I estimate the first target range is $6.75-$6.90 which would be reaching the previous ATH of S&P of 5675
Option Price Est. $.85-$1.00
Approx: 3:1 - 5:1 Profit Loss Ratio
The full target range would be between $7.00-$7.25 which would be reaching the H&S Target 5630 or 200 Day Moving Average 5577
Option Price Est. $1.00-$1.50
Approx. 3.3:1 - 7.5:1 Profit Loss Ratio
S&P 500 Sees Possible Bearish Signs Like the ‘Mini Death Cross’We recently had the lack of a so-called “Santa Claus Rally,” an omission that’s historically a negative sign for stocks. And now, the S&P 500 SP:SPX -- the broadest large-cap U.S. equity index -- has developed a pattern of bearish reversal as well.
Check out the SPX’s chart going back six months through Wednesday (Jan. 8):
Readers will see that the S&P 500 developed a head-and-shoulders pattern of bearish reversal in late October and stretching into 2025, as denoted by the three purple triangles to the right of the above chart.
This pattern displays a neckline/pivot point of 5,827 -- slightly above the 5,810.68 that the S&P 500 was trading at midday Friday, but even with a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the index’s August low to its December high.
This 23.6% Fibonacci level (denoted by one of the thick blue horizontal lines at the chart’s left) makes the SPX’s 5,827 level all that much more important as a potential pivot.
Pivot points typically represent where support or resistance show up for a stock or index, depending on the price action’s direction. A pivot point can also act like an accelerant or slingshot if the stock or index breaks the pivot level.
Elsewhere in the above chart, readers will see that the S&P 500’s Relative Strength Index (the gray bar at the chart’s top) was neutral as of Wednesday's close.
However, the index’s daily Moving average Convergence Divergence indicator -- or “MACD,” denoted by the black and gold lines and blue bars at bottom -- had repositioned itself to appear more bearish.
The histogram of the index’s 9-day exponential moving average -- or “EMA,” marked with blue bars at the chart’s bottom -- was running below zero. That’s often reflective of a recent loss of upward momentum.
Meanwhile, the 12-day EMA (the black line at the chart’s bottom) moved below the 26-day EMA (the gold line). That’s a historically bearish move.
Additionally, the S&P 500 is undergoing what’s called a “swing traders' cross” or “mini death cross.” That’s a bearish “cross-under,” where a stock or index’s 21-day EMA (the green line in the chart above) moves below its 50-day Simple Moving Average (or “SMA,” marked with a blue line above).
Where Does the S&P 500’s Chart Show Support?
With Friday’s break below the above chart pattern's neckline, the S&P 500’s next key support level could be 5,605 -- the “half-way back point” or a 50% retracement of the index’s August-to-December run. (While common, 50% retracements are not true Fibonacci levels.)
(At the time of writing this column, Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen “Sarge” Guilfoyle had no positions in S&P 500 ETFs or index funds.)
Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be directly invested into. Past performance is no indication of future results. Investing involves risk and the potential to lose principal.
This article discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. This content is also not a research report and is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. The information contained in this article does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Moomoo and its affiliates make no representation or warranty as to the article's adequacy, completeness, accuracy or timeliness for any particular purpose of the above content. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that any statements, estimates, price targets, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Moomoo is a financial information and trading app offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. In the U.S., investment products and services on Moomoo are offered by Moomoo Financial Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC.
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SPX: still in a Holiday moodThe sentiment from the last week of December, was holding on the market also in the first trading week of 2025. There were both days with a positive and negative sentiment. For the second week in a row, the market was trading in a negative mood during the week, ending with Friday's positive shift to the upside. The S&P 500 reached its lowest weekly level at 5.837, at the same level as two weeks ago, and then reverted back toward the 5.944 on Friday.
Tech stock companies were the ones that spotted investors' attention on Friday. The market favourite Nvidia jumped by 4,7% and Super Micro Computers was traded higher by 10,9%. Analysts were noting that spending on AI and chips would certainly bring AI related companies to the higher grounds in 2025. Microsoft already announced plans to invest $80 billion on AI-enabled centres this year, which supported investors' interest for stock within the AI and AI-chips industry. These trends are likely to continue through 2025 also with other companies within the tech industry.
SPX LongI believe this point of volatility for SPX is high. Upcoming days I expect the volatility will calm down and the price of the asset will be higher than the current levels. my short-term target is 6026.
SPX MegaphoneHere's a one month chart for SPX. We have a giant megaphone that started at a peak near the beginning of 1973 and the bottom in 1974. This will obviously take a while to play out, but I truly believe the black swan event and major crash I've been warning about will happen very soon. 2025 will be the beginning of a time of great tribulations for all of us on Earth, but I do believe there will be a light at the end of the tunnel and there will be a generational wealth building opportunity eventually, probably around 2030ish. I do not want to be a permabear and fear monger. I have seriously never said anything like this in my life and I won't ever again because this is it. We are living through a time that will be talked about and studied for centuries, I truly believe that with every fiber of my being.
I began posting my thoughts and analysis in early 2024 and honestly the whole reason why I did that is because I felt like i knew we were about to have a melt up/blow off top for the ages followed by a devastating crash and I wanted people to know about it and the reasons why it happened. It's been a wild ride and we have witnessed a historic rally, but the end is near. The crash will be every bit as historic as the recent rally, it will be worse than 1929. We will have full scale World War 3, pandemics, currency collapses, and everything in between.
This is my final warning, things are about to get very weird and it's time for me to take a step back and focus on things that are more important to my family and I. Money is not the answer to your problems. I'm not sure if I made the right decision or not by attempting to teach people what I know about the stock market. If you've been following me, you have probably realized that I have very strong opinions about how and why stock prices move the way they do. This is a very difficult game and in the end it all comes down to psychology. No matter what I do or say, I'm not sure I can actually help anyone because it is very difficult, even if you know what is going to happen, you can still get completely destroyed.
I'm starting to feel like it's not something I should promote. I just felt strongly that I had a duty to talk about this because I know what I know and most people don't pay attention to this or have any real knowledge about markets. Those who try seem doomed to fail due to the amount of misinformation on social media and speculation about why prices move. Stock prices move because wholesale stock operators manipulate stock prices by accumulating stocks, pushing them to the highest point humanly possible and then they distribute. After they are done, stock prices begin to fall until they start accumulating again and once they are done, the whole process starts again. The fed plays a major role in this and runs the entire thing. They have finally started to pull liquidity after increasing the money supply by over 400% in just a few years, a completely insane thing to do. In December we finally saw a huge drop in liquidity and it's going to continue. Keep an eye on the M! and M2 money supply charts.
Stock prices move because there are either more buyers than sellers or vice versa, that is all. People want to speculate about why and talk about various events they think will happen or because of what they think about the economy. This is a big fallacy that has plagued retail traders since the stock market was created. Wholesalers know what will happen before it happens, they know the news that's coming most of the time and if they don't, they still use it to generate enough volume that allows them to enter and exit positions, they could not do what they do without volume from retail. If we have a bull market, negative news is ignored and positive news is highlighted. In a bear market, negative news is highlighted and positive news is ignored.
There is a reason why it costs $50k+ for just a few minutes of air time on CNBC. Inverse Cramer works because he is paid to say what he says, he says the opposite of the truth and so do the rest of the financial media outlets. 99% of retail traders are not profitable after 7 years of trading and 80% who try are finished within 2 years. It is this way by design. We all attempt to do it because we want financial freedom and to provide for our families. The problem is greed takes over and he who hastens to be rich will be punished, that is a certainty just as much as death and taxes are.
I don't know the exact time or what the exact event will be and I have no idea when it bottoms either. I do have some ideas, but that's just speculation. Either way, I know it's coming. This chart and path is my best guess as to how this will play out and it may go even lower than the 2009 low, but at that point I don't think it really matters anyway.
If you want my honest opinion (not financial advice), I think the best thing to do is to simply exit all long positions on US equities, buy gold and silver and forget about it. Focus on the important things in life instead, you will outperform almost everyone in the next 5 years if you do this. In the end, you have to do whatever you think is best and you cannot trade based on what someone else says. If you do that, you will have no idea how to manage the trade, what to expect, or how to manage emotions if it doesn't go as planned. You will lack the conviction necessary to make good decisions because you won't have any conviction if you just follow someone else and don't actually believe in the trade or know why you took the trade.
Thank you for all the support, I appreciate it and I'm sorry if you have lost money due to any of my analysis. I was just trying to help... It is time to focus on what's important in life, it is too short to spend your whole life chasing the dragon of unlimited wealth, that is not the way. I wish you all the best, Godspeed.
S&P 500 Price Outlook: Key Levels and Trend AnalysisS&P 500 Analysis
The price has bullish momentum and is likely to reach 6022. If it stabilizes above this level, it may rise further to 6099, especially if it breaches the descending trendline.
If the price stabilizes below 6022, it will likely consolidate between 6022 and 5969 until a breakout occurs. A break below 5937 could signal the start of a bearish trend.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5987
Resistance Levels: 6022, 6053, 6060
Support Levels: 5969, 5937, 5896
