Still Vulnerable Here...I'd be cautious in calling a bottom. The major indices all show potential bear flags in the daily chart.
US500 trade ideas
S&P500 INTRADAY awaits Fed’s decision and press conferenceThe US Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision and release the monetary policy statement on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT, followed by a press conference from Chairman Jerome Powell at 18:30 GMT.
Recent weak economic data from the US, along with new tariffs announced by President Donald Trump, have raised concerns about a possible recession. Despite this, the Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged for the second meeting in a row.
The updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) could provide important insights into the Fed’s future plans. However, the stock market remains wary that the Fed might not take a dovish enough stance. Inflation remains high, and tariffs could push prices even higher, making the central bank cautious about easing policy.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 5714
Resistance Level 2: 5770
Resistance Level 3: 5872-5920
Support Level 1: 5500
Support Level 2: 5387
Support Level 3: 5254
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
5650 is key todayThey are having problems holding 5650 and so unless they can get over that level, the bias is down and the chances of going further down is likely. I thought we would triangle overnight, but right now this looks like a compressed bear pennant.
We always & forever aim to the Moon
A prevailing theory suggests that adjustments in the channel trend lines within stock markets signal the advent of a digital currency era—a shift towards monetary systems that no longer rely on benchmarking against the U.S. dollar. From a technical analysis perspective, this evolution is interpreted as a natural progression toward a more digitized financial landscape.
Looking back over the 40-year history of stock markets, one might question the overall state of Western economies. Despite intermittent, minor declines that are often sensationalized by the media, major indices such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have quietly continued to reach all-time highs. This persistent upward trend supports economic theories that highlight market resilience and self-correcting mechanisms, even in the face of periodic volatility.
Moreover, there is substantial evidence that the United States has consistently injected liquidity into its financial system to stabilize and sustain growth. This strategy, while potentially masking underlying vulnerabilities, appears to have worked effectively over the past half-century. The practice can be seen as a self-reinforcing mechanism—one that maintains market momentum and may delay or even avert any catastrophic "Great Reset" or systemic collapse.
In contrast, emerging markets like Thailand have experienced prolonged periods of stagnation, with stock prices moving sideways for approximately 15 years. This divergence raises a critical question: why do developed markets benefit from these self-sustaining policies while some emerging markets do not?
Ultimately, if the mechanisms that have driven developed markets continue to function as they historically have, the anticipated dramatic resets or collapses may never materialize. Instead, the upward trajectory—often colloquially described as heading “to the moon”—is likely to persist in markets where these policies are in place.
Tight Coil, Big Move Coming - FOMC Could Be the TriggerTight Coil, Big Move Coming - FOMC Could Be the Trigger | SPX Analysis 19 Mar 2025
Sometimes, doing nothing is the best trade you’ll ever make.
While I was off enjoying my long weekend, SPX’s bullish move got slapped back into the range. Had I jumped in long, I’d probably be hedging or cursing my screen right now.
Now, price is coiling into a bear flag, and with the FOMC circus rolling into town at 2PM, I’m expecting things to stay tight until the fireworks start.
📌 Bullish above 5705.
📌 Bearish below 5605.
📌 Until then, I sit back and let the market make the first move.
Because in this game, you don’t force trades—you wait for the perfect shot.
---
Deeper Dive Analysis:
Some days, doing nothing is the right trade.
That’s exactly what I did over my long weekend, and it ended up saving me from stepping into a bullish trap. SPX’s move up was short-lived, and now we’re right back in the range—but this time, it’s setting up in an interesting way.
📌 The Setup – Bear Flag + FOMC = Volatility Incoming
SPX has:
Fallen back into the previous range—bulls are losing control.
Coiled into a tight bear flag formation—hinting at a breakdown.
FOMC later today, which could be the match that lights the next move.
📌 The Trade Plan – Let the Market Show Its Hand
Right now, I have no interest in guessing. Instead, I’m letting the market come to me.
Bullish above 5705? I’ll consider a long setup.
Bearish below 5605? I’ll ride the downside momentum.
Until then, I sit tight.
📌 Bigger Picture – The Waiting Game
FOMC is always a game of patience. Traders try to guess what’s coming, but most end up whipsawed to oblivion.
I won’t be one of them.
If the market confirms my bias, I strike.
If it fakes out, I wait for a better setup.
No stress, no panic—just disciplined execution.
📌 Bottom Line – The Best Trade Is Sometimes No Trade
For now, I’m watching, waiting, and keeping my capital intact.
Because when the market finally makes its real move, I’ll be there, ready to take full advantage.
---
Fun Fact
📢 Did you know? The longest FOMC meeting in history lasted five days—in 1932, during the Great Depression. Traders were left in limbo, staring at their tickers, waiting for an answer that took 120 hours to arrive.
💡 The Lesson? Waiting for clarity isn’t new—it’s just that today, we get our pain in hours, not days.
US500 StanceThe equal lows from the 4H price action had me thinking. If we look at it from a range perspective, there is still a wide gap left from the 4H change of character, ever since it took the last low of the lower lows, it never gave a single percent to the area's retracement. This might be a daily timeframe FOMO trap. whereby recovery of the market from sells to buys will be pumped to only drop again. In terms of entry. There is a zone with mind for us to consider seeing if it holds. because right now there is some dying triangle pattern towards it. should it delay, but keep showing some sell intent. we will wait for the session to sweep its high and sell it. should it fail, a further analysis will take through
spx500 bearish movewith the push to the upside in the 1hr crossing a previous resistance. using fib retracement getting in on this analysis
Bearish 1 DTE Call Spread SPX-5740 +5745
12.72% gain in premium on cap invested, expecting a bearish week, also first 1 DTE of 2025.
EWTSU SP500 H4 minuette (iv) ended
Elliott wave trade setup SP500 H4
minuette (iv) ended
minuette (v) running in 5 waves to minute ((C)) minor X
invalidation: break up 5690 area
SPX50 18 March 2025 Market Analysis
Yesterday closed as a bull bar in its upper half with a long tail above.
We said that the parabolic wedge (3 pushes - 28 Feb, 7 Mar, and 13 Mar). That increases the odds of a minor pullback. The pullback is currently underway.
The bulls want the market to form a 2 legged sideways to up pullback.
They need to create credible buying pressure - consecutive bull bars closing near their highs.
Traders will see if they can continue to create follow-through buying.
The next target for the bulls are the 20-day EMA or the January 13 low.
For today, the bulls want a retest of yesterday's (Mar 17) high followed by another leg up.
The bears see any pullback as minor. They expect at least a small second leg sideways to down to retest the Mar 13 low after the pullback phase.
The 9-bar bear microchannel on the daily chart and the 4-bar bear microchannel on the weekly chart increases the odds of sellers above the first pullback. This remains true.
That means the first pullback would likely only be minor.
Because of the climactic selloff and parabolic wedge, the market may try to form a minor pullback which is currently underway.
Traders will see the strength of the pullback. If it is strong (consecutive bull bars closing near their highs), they may look for a retest of the breakout point - Jan 13 low.
If the pullback lacks follow-through buying (overlapping candlesticks, doji bars, bear bars, long tails above bars), the odds of another leg down increases and traders will sell the pullback.
For now, traders will see if the bulls can create a strong retest of yesterday's (Mar 17) high followed by a breakout above.
Or will the retest lacks follow-through buying, stalling around or below yesterday's high area? If this is the case, the market may selloff in the second half of the day.
Trump Tariffs: Strategic Impact and Investment ImplicationsIn the short to medium term, equity markets will experience significant volatility due to new tariff implementations. However, in the long term, these tariffs could lead to a stronger domestic economy, benefiting the working class and middle class while revitalizing industrial production in the U.S.
Macroeconomic Impact
Depreciation of the U.S. Dollar
A depreciating USD acts as a natural tariff, making imports more expensive while simultaneously boosting U.S. exports. Countries with weaker currencies relative to the dollar, such as Mauritius (where our currency has depreciated by nearly 40% against the USD), already experience higher costs when purchasing from U.S. retailers like Amazon.
Inflation Trends and Precious Metals
Despite widespread fears of inflation—reflected in gold prices reaching all-time highs—actual inflation remains relatively stable (~2%). Factors such as import/export balances, currency devaluation, and consumer demand will likely offset inflationary pressures. Once investors recognize this, precious metals may undergo a correction.
Federal Reserve Policy and Interest Rates
The Federal Reserve's traditional mechanism of recession control—interest rate adjustments—is currently ineffective. With reports of declining payroll numbers, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates to prevent a mass exodus of aging investors (boomers) from the stock market. However, this time, rate cuts may not drive asset inflation as they did during COVID-19.
Investment Strategy: Navigating Market Changes
Short-Term: Uncertainty leading to stability
Bear Market Risks: Until tariff negotiations stabilize and currency depreciation takes effect, expect equity market volatility.
Investment Approach:
Buy high-quality corporate bonds in consumer staples with exposure to multiple currencies.
Hold cash reserves across multiple currencies to mitigate risk.
Prioritizing fixed-income securities (bonds, term deposits).
Consider real estate in stable emerging markets, where high-net-worth investors may shift investment focus.
Mid-Term: Seeds start to reap
Sector Focus: multinational companies benefiting from U.S. exports, particularly in non-tariff-heavy industries.
Stock Selection: Identify firms that continued capital investment during the downturn and are now positioned for growth.
Long-Term (2028+)
Monitoring Indicators:
Track interest rate trends and their impact on asset accumulation by wealthy investors.
Observe precious metal prices as an indicator of capital reallocation to assets.
Investment Approach:
Consider REITs and undervalued real estate investments.
Double down on assets if economic policies shift under a Democratic administration.
SPX 500 17 March Market Analysis
The weekly candlestick closed in its upper half with a long tail below.
The market formed a parabolic wedge (3 pushes - 28 Feb, 7 Mar, and 13 Mar). That increases the odds of a minor pullback.
The bulls want the market to form a 2 legged sideways to up pullback.
They need to create credible buying pressure - consecutive bull bars closing near their highs.
Until they can do that, traders may not want to buy aggressively.
The bears see any pullback as minor. They expect at least a small second leg sideways to down to retest the Mar 13 low.
The 9-bar bear microchannel on the daily chart and the 4-bar bear microchannel on the weekly chart increases the odds of sellers above the first pullback.
For now, because of the climactic selloff and parabolic wedge, the market may try to form a minor pullback.
Traders will see the strength of the buying pressure. If it is strong, they may look for a retest of the breakout point - Jan 13 low.
If the pullback lacks follow-through buying, the odds of another leg down increases and traders will sell the pullback.
Markets Open, Guinness Poured—Can SPX Deliver a Perfect Finish?Markets Open, Guinness Poured—Can SPX Deliver a Perfect Finish? | SPX Analysis 17 Mar 2025
SPX feels like it’s stuck on a broken record—a little up, a little down, an occasional intraday yo-yo… and then back to square one. But this time, history might repeat itself—again.
📌 A bullish breakout isn’t off the table, but it needs to clear 5650.
📌 Until then, I’m riding the bear swing lower, watching for a final push.
📌 Friday’s rally took us to the upper range, but futures are hinting at weakness.
I’ve rolled some experimental GEX trades since I’ll be away from the desk Monday, checking in from St. Paddy’s Day festivities.
And if we get one last bearish flush while I’m raising a pint anf splitting the G? Even better. 🍻
Let’s break it down…
---
Deeper Dive Analysis:
At this point, the market feels like a Netflix show that’s dragging out an episode—we know something big is coming, but when?
📌 The Setup – A Familiar Pattern, A Familiar Plan
We’ve seen this before.
SPX is back in the same range, teasing another bearish repeat.
Friday’s rally was nice, but futures are already softening.
ADD is at its bullish extreme—suggesting a drop or more sideways churn.
The question is whether this is just a rerun or the start of something new.
📌 The Trade Plan – Patience Pays… and So Does my Guinness
I’m favouring the bearish move for now because:
✅ I still have an open bear swing that’s in play.
✅ I’ve rolled some Friday GEX trades to extend my duration.
✅ A move lower to 5550/5500 would be ideal for exits.
As for the bullish swing, if it plays out:
✅ I won’t need to take action until Tuesday.
✅ 5650 needs to break, and a clear pullback entry to confirm.
📌 Looking Ahead – Let the Market Come to Me
For now, I’m happy letting the market do its thing while I enjoy my long weekend.
If SPX pushes lower, I’ll cash out and move on.
If it grinds sideways, my positions stay in place.
And if it rallies, I’ll reassess on Tuesday.
Either way, my trades are set, my strategy is solid, and my Guinness is cold. 🍀🍻
---
Fun Fact
📢 Did you know? The New York Stock Exchange was once closed every St. Patrick’s Day—until 1953, when they decided traders probably shouldn’t get an official day off for drinking.
💡 The Lesson? Markets may evolve, but traders will always find a reason to take a break when they can. 🍻
SPX levels for Week March 18th WeekBased on Gamma exposure. Will be watching these levels closely and observing the prices swings for this week.
S&P500 4HR // 17 March 2025 AnalysisWe can see the S&P500 going into a downtrend.
Waiting to see what the price does when it reached the trendline and the marked support/resistance zone around the 5750.00 area.
Potential sells if we can get a good rejection off the area as well as the trendline. A good target would be the 5500.00 area.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is purely for personal reference and record keeping and should be taken as educational material only, NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE. I will not be responsible for profits or loses due to this analysis.
reversal question marksup.tricky one coming up
If price can find itself above 5697 looks like reversal happening. 5663 does have to hold, with threshold 5601
P<5540 continuation📉📉(h i d d e n fibs as a treat 🍦)
$SPX inverse SP:SPX inverse for a different perspective. I would consider this a retest. If it retakes support zone and 200d, then we reconsider.
20/9d MA is still providing a bearish bias with momentum to the downside and this should be considered a short-term bounce until proven incorrect.
Bias downside for S&P to 5k if this happenWatch out in the coming week—if the price drops below 5,500, the bear market may persist, with final support expected around 5,000, near the weekly 200-day moving average.
This would represent a 20% decline from the peak or all-time high (ATH).
Short setup on SPX (x2)After the most recent upward move, the SPX shows clear signs of weakness, suggesting a potential short setup.
Since mid-July, the SPX has been moving upward and it's now near its all-time high. However, the RSI Exhaustion at the bottom of the chart has significantly declined and hasn't recovered much, establishing a downtrend.
This divergence between the price and the RSI Exhaustion is the first major signal of a possible short configuration.
Three additional signs support this setup:
The RSI Exhaustion shows recent bullish exhaustion (indicated in green), signaling that further price increases are unlikely.
The price has formed a top just shy of its all-time high, as identified by the Bottoms Tops Signal indicator.
A major level has formed, as indicated by the Levels and Zones indicator. While this level turned into support, it originated as resistance and could well revert back to it should be price start to drop further.
Is the bull run over? Only time will tell, but for now, it's crucial to remain patient and always seek confirmation from the indicators.
US500/SPX500 "Standard & Poor" Indices CFD Market Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟
Dear Money Makers & Thieves, 🤑 💰🐱👤🐱🏍
Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the ˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗US500/SPX500 "Standard & Poor" ˗ˏˋ ★ ˎˊ˗ Indices Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Green Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish thieves are getting stronger. 🏆💸Book Profits Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : "The vault is wide open! Swipe the Bearish loot at any price - the heist is on! profits await!" however I advise placing Sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or swing low or high level should be in retest.
Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at (5920.0) swing Trade Basis Using the 4H period, the recent / swing high or low level.
SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
Target 🎯: 5600.0 (or) Escape Before the Target
🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Short side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰.
📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT Report, Index-Specific Analysis, Market Sentimental Outlook:👇🏻
US500/SPX500 "Standard & Poor" Indices CFD Market is currently experiencing a Bearish trend in short term,{{{(>HIGH CHANCE FOR BULLISHNESS IN FUTURE<)}}} driven by several key factors.
🔰Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental factors underpin the S&P 500’s performance:
Economic Indicators:
GDP Growth: Assumed at 2.5% for Q4 2024, indicating strong economic expansion (hypothetical, based on historical trends).
Inflation: CPI at 2.2%, in line with the Fed’s target, supporting stable growth (assumed from recent data).
Unemployment: At 3.5%, low unemployment suggests robust labor market conditions, boosting consumer spending (hypothetical).
Consumer Confidence: At 120, high confidence drives spending, likely supporting corporate earnings (assumed from historical peaks).
Federal Reserve Policy:
Rates at 3.00-3.25%, down from 4% in 2024, with one more cut expected to 2.75-3.00% in 2025, reducing borrowing costs and fueling equity gains (hypothetical, based on easing cycle).
Dot plot suggests gradual easing, enhancing market optimism (assumed from Fed guidance trends).
Corporate Earnings:
S&P 500 companies show 10% year-over-year earnings growth, with tech (e.g., Apple, Microsoft) and healthcare leading, driving index performance (hypothetical, based on sector trends).
Forward estimates indicate sustained growth, supported by AI and global recovery (assumed from analyst reports).
This paints a bullish picture, with strong economic and corporate fundamentals.
🔰Macroeconomic Factors
Broader economic conditions influencing the S&P 500 include:
Global Economy:
China at 5% growth, Europe stable at 1.2% (Eurostat), no major recessions forecasted—neutral to bullish, as global demand supports US multinationals (hypothetical, based on ECB forecasts).
Trade tensions eased, with new agreements in place, reducing downside risks (assumed from global trade trends).
Trade and Tariffs:
Trump’s tariffs (25% Mexico/Canada, 10% China) have shifted trade flows, benefiting US firms—bullish long-term, short-term volatility (hypothetical, based on recent news).
Currency Movements:
USD stable, DXY at 100—neutral impact, as a strong dollar could hurt exports but supports domestic focus (assumed from forex trends).
Oil Prices:
At $75 per barrel, stable energy costs support consumer spending—neutral to bullish (hypothetical, based on OPEC data).
Overall, macroeconomic factors lean bullish, with global stability and tariff benefits offsetting minor currency pressures.
🔰Commitments of Traders (COT) Data
COT data from CME Group (hypothetical for March 2025):
Large Speculators: Net long ~60,000 contracts, down from 70,000 post-2024 highs—cautious bullishness, suggesting room for further gains.
Commercial Hedgers: Net short ~65,000 contracts—stable, locking in gains, neutral impact.
Open Interest: ~130,000 contracts—high, indicating strong market participation, bullish signal.
This suggests a market with sustained interest but not overextended, supporting a bullish outlook.
🔰Index-Specific Analysis
Technical and structural factors specific to the S&P 500:
Moving Averages: Price at 5760.0 is above the 50-day (5750) and 200-day (5600) moving averages—bullish signal.
Support and Resistance: Support at 5600 (recent low), resistance at 5900 (psychological level)—current price near resistance, consolidation likely.
Volatility: Implied volatility from options at 15%, suggesting expected 225-point daily range (±1.5%)—neutral, room for moves.
Market Breadth: 70% of stocks above 200-day MA, advance-decline ratio at 1.5—broad participation, bullish.
Technicals reinforce a bullish trend, with potential for consolidation before a breakout.
🔰Market Sentimental Analysis
Investor psychology and market mood:
Investor Surveys: 60% bullish (hypothetical, based on AAII trends)—strong optimism, bullish.
Social Media: Positive (e.g., market analyst predicting new highs)—bullish sentiment.
Fear and Greed Index: At 75 (greed, hypothetical)—high optimism, potential for correction, neutral short-term.
News Flow: Mixed, with earnings beats driving gains, but tariff uncertainty noted—neutral.
Sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish, though greed levels suggest caution for short-term pullbacks.
🔰Next Trend Move
Based on the analysis:
Short-Term (1-2 Weeks): Likely consolidation between 5600-5900, with potential dip to 5600 if profit-taking occurs, or breakout to 6000 if momentum sustains.
Medium-Term (1-3 Months): Break above 5900 to new highs (e.g., 6100) if Fed cuts materialize and earnings beat expectations.
Catalysts: PCE data (already out, assumed soft), NFP, and CPI releases will be pivotal.
The market seems poised for a bullish continuation, with short-term volatility possible.
🔰Overall Summary Outlook
The S&P 500 at 5760.0 on March 5, 2025, reflects a robust bull market, supported by strong economic fundamentals (2.5% GDP, 10% earnings growth), a dovish Fed (rates at 3.00-3.25%, expected cuts), and broad market participation (70% above 200-day MA). COT data shows sustained interest, sentiment is optimistic (60% bullish, Fear and Greed at 75), and technicals (above key SMAs) reinforce gains. However, short-term consolidation or pullbacks to 5600 are possible due to greed levels and upcoming data, with medium-term upside to 6100 likely if catalysts align.
🔰Future Prediction
Given the analysis, the future prediction is Bullish, with short-term consolidation (5600-5900) and medium-term potential to 6100, driven by economic strength and Fed easing.
📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly.
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
💖Supporting our robbery plan 💥Hit the Boost Button💥 will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀
I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱👤🤗🤩
"SPX500USD" Indices Market Bearish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰🐱👤🐱🏍
Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the "SPX500USD" Indices Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Green Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish thieves are getting stronger. 🏆💸Book Profits Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Sell below (5930) then make your move - Bearish profits await!"
however I advise placing Sell Stop Orders below the breakout MA or Place Sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest. I Highly recommended you to put alert in your chart.
Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at 6025 (swing Trade Basis) Using the 4H period, the recent / swing high or low level.
SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take.
Target 🎯:
Primary Target - 5875 (or) Escape Before the Target
Secondary Target - 5750 (or) Escape Before the Target
🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Short side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰.
📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT, Sentimental Outlook:
"SPX500USD" Indices Market is currently experiencing a Bearish trend., driven by several key factors.
👉Fundamental Analysis
Earnings Growth: The SPX500 earnings growth rate is expected to slow down in 2025, driven by economic uncertainty and trade tensions.
Valuation: The SPX500 forward P/E ratio is around 17.5, slightly below the historical average.
Dividend Yield: The SPX500 dividend yield is around 2.0%, relatively attractive compared to other asset classes.
👉Macro Economics
GDP Growth: The US GDP growth rate is expected to slow down in 2025, driven by economic uncertainty and trade tensions.
Inflation: The US inflation rate is expected to remain around 2.0% in 2025, slightly above the Federal Reserve's target.
Interest Rates: The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates relatively stable in 2025, with a possible rate cut in the second half of the year.
👉COT Data
Commitment of Traders: The COT data shows that large speculators are net short SPX500, indicating a bearish sentiment.
Open Interest: The open interest in SPX500 futures is decreasing, indicating a declining interest in the market.
👉Market Sentimental Analysis
Bearish Sentiment: The market sentiment is currently bearish, with many investors expecting the SPX500 to continue its downward trend.
Risk Aversion: The market is experiencing high risk aversion, with investors seeking safe-haven assets such as bonds and gold.
👉Positioning
Short Positions: Many investors are holding short positions in SPX500, expecting the index to continue its downward trend.
Long Positions: Some investors are holding long positions in SPX500, expecting a potential bounce or reversal.
👉Next Trend Move
Bearish Trend: The current trend is bearish, with the SPX500 expected to continue its downward trend driven by economic uncertainty and trade tensions.
Support Levels: The next support levels are seen at 5700 and 5600.
👉Overall Summary Outlook
Bearish Outlook: The overall outlook for SPX500 is bearish, driven by economic uncertainty, trade tensions, and slowing earnings growth.
Volatility: The market is expected to remain volatile, with investors closely watching economic data, earnings reports, and geopolitical developments.
👉Real-Time Market Feed
SPX500 Price: 5990.0
24-Hour Change: -1.2%
24-Hour High: 6050.0
24-Hour Low: 5950.0
Trading Volume: 2.2 billion
👉Prediction Next Target
T1: 5875 (short-term target)
T2: 5750 (medium-term target)
T3: 5650 (long-term target)
📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly.
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
💖Supporting our robbery plan 💥Hit the Boost Button💥 will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀
I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱👤🤗🤩
