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Skeptic | Weekly Recap: Big Wins, Misses & Lessons!Hey guys! 👋I’m Skeptic , and today I’m gonna do a full recap of the past week’s positions and watchlist. We’re gonna see what worked, what didn’t, and what lessons we learned along the way. Let’s get into it! 🚀 Position Review: What We’ll Cover What was the trigger? What was the result (profit/loss)? Why did it work or fail? I’ll be linking all the relevant ideas so you can check out the full analysis for each setup. Also, if I don’t mention a position, it’s because the trigger I gave hasn’t activated yet. Let’s dive in! 💥 Position #1: XAUUSD (12 March) 📈 4-Hour Time Frame Recently, we saw a breakout of the range box, but the price quickly pulled back inside, indicating that sellers failed to maintain bearish momentum. This suggests that the long-term uptrend is still holding strong. 🔮 Next Move? If we see a break above the 4-hour resistance at 2927.25, it could be a solid signal for continuing the uptrend. The final bullish trigger will be after a breakout above 2954.74, confirming strong upside momentum. 📉 Short Setup: The main short trigger is a break below 2878.84. Once that level breaks, there’s no significant support until 2841.74, so the move could be sharp and quick. Given the importance of this support, expect some volatility and adjust your stops accordingly. ✅ Outcome: The long trigger at 2919 was activated, and we managed to hit an R/R of 5. Reasons for Success: Trading in the direction of the major trend: Always increases R/R and win rate. Strong breakout candle: A solid 4-hour candle showed both buyer strength and seller presence, signaling a great breakout opportunity. Good momentum: Previous corrections were minimal (less than 35% on the Fib retracement), and bullish candles were strong. 💥 Position #2: XAGUSD (12 March) We recently witnessed a range box breakout, but the price swiftly pulled back inside, showing that sellers failed to keep the momentum. The daily major uptrend still looks strong. ✅ Outcome: This position also delivered an R/R of 3. Reasons for Success: Long trade aligned with the trend: Always a safer bet. Sharp reaction to resistance: Breaking strong resistance often results in a sharp move. No major resistance ahead: This allowed the move to extend further, giving us a higher R/R. 💥 Position #3: SPX (14 March) 🔍 Market Overview: The weekly trend is still up, but the daily time frame has entered a corrective downtrend due to trade tariff issues between the U.S. and other countries. This led to the Fed holding off on interest rate cuts, impacting risk assets like stocks and BTC. On the 4-hour time frame, we entered a range box and recently saw a fake breakout to the downside. The price quickly bounced back into the range, showing buyer strength and seller weakness. This gives a slight long bias. ✅ Outcome: Our trigger at 5564.67 activated with a solid indecision candle on the 1-hour time frame. If you took the trade with a safe stop loss, you should be sitting on an R/R of 2 by now. Reasons for Success: Fake breakout recovery: Sellers couldn’t hold the price down, and buyers pushed it back into the range, absorbing liquidity. Lower-than-expected inflation: Improved sentiment and led to a bullish push. Indecision candle confirmation: Signaled buyer presence and seller exhaustion. 💡 Key Takeaway: This week, we managed to secure an R/R of 10, which is fantastic. I’m not gonna brag about how much profit we made, because that number can vary based on each trader’s risk management and position size. A professional trader measures success through win rate, losing streaks, and R/R, not just the percentage of profit made. 🚨 Pro Tip: If anyone claims they make “X% profit consistently,” be cautious—it’s probably a scam. Real traders focus on maintaining consistent risk management and realistic expectations. 💬 Final Thoughts: If you took any of these trades or have similar setups, share your experience in the comments! And if you’ve got any questions or insights, drop them below—I’m here to help and discuss. Let’s grow together, not alone! 💪🔥 Wishing you an awesome weekend!
SPREADEX:SPX
by SkepticWise
Trump and the Market's Turmoil📉 Hey hey, here we are. It's been an eventful last week or two to say in the least for everyone. We've seen one of the worlds most followed stock-market benchmarks slide into correction territory following some of Trumps remarks and actions in the last week or two already under his administration prompting fears and a growing pessimism from Investors with Washington's whipsaw of policy changes an announcements, particularly in reference to the latest tariff's trump has been threatening other countries with and imposed. 📉 Currently CNN has the Fear and Greed Index for the market at 21 signifying Extreme Fear driving the market which for the most part is thanks to trump following all the anxiety surrounding Trump's tariff threats and actions. On top of this in Trumps' latest Fox interview on Sunday when asked if he was expecting a recession this year Trump responded in full; "I hate to predict things like that". Understandably so, this prompted a rather steep sell off and turn around for the SP:SPX leading investors to exit and jump ship rather quick. 📉 Understandably so, the markets are in turmoil right now, Investors are trying to figure out what our next move might be, as to whether or not we'll possibly slide more now that we're in correction territory or whether or not we've reverse and manage to regain and recoup some of the ground we've lost following the slew of announcements, tariffs, and threat's trump's made the last few weeks. 📉 We're basically stuck within this descending channel so for technical analysis we'll have to lookout for a clean breakout before we can anticipate or look to any upside or positive moves back up, and even so we already know that'll be much easier said than done, especially with Trump still threatening tariffs and Investors worrying about the impact all these actions will play in the near future and further out. 📉 Today's already going positively with us seeing a 600 point bounce already but we already know it'll take much more than just one green day before we can hold that outlook, especially after what the last week or two have done to us. 📉 I'll leave the idea here for now, we'll be back to keep things updated and posted but definitely keep an eye out for a breakout and we'll be looking to our 200 EMA to watch for a convergence which would be a great help if we could regain that and hopefully get out of this Extreme Fear sentiment. 📉 Till then, wishing all the best, thank you sm for all the support and till next, have a great day! ~ Rock '
SP:SPX
by Rocksorgate
1
spx 500 sell Concept: Looking for a sell setup when price reaches a 4-hour demand zone. Price should first take out the previous day's high (PDH) (liquidity grab). After the reaction at the previous day's low (PDL), an inducement should form. The setup is confirmed when the market structure shifts (MSS) after the liquidity grab. Execution Plan: Identify the 4H Demand Zone Look for a strong bullish order block or fair value gap (FVG) in the 4-hour timeframe. Wait for Liquidity Grab at PDH Price should sweep the previous day’s high to trap breakout buyers. Monitor Reaction at PDL If price reacts from the previous day’s low and forms an inducement, it confirms liquidity engineering. Look for Market Structure Shift (MSS) & Entry Confirmation Enter a sell trade when price breaks a lower timeframe structure (M5 or M15) with a strong bearish candle. Use a fair value gap (FVG) or an order block as an entry trigger. Set Stop Loss & Take Profit Stop Loss: Above the liquidity grab (PDH or 4H OB). Take Profit: 1st target at the previous day's low (PDL), extended target at a discount level (Fibonacci 0.62). Indicators & Tools:
FX:SPX500Short
by lasinsraj
SPX500 Long Trade Setup Analysis (1D Timeframe - Blackbull)Previous SPX idea has hit our stop loss. The position was entered on touch of the lower channel trend line, however we have since fell through our tight stop. Our outlook for the SPX remains the same, with a new entry shown above between 5589-5560 and a stop loss placed below higher timeframe (8 day dynamic support) and the 61.8% fib retracement around 5360. Targets remain the same, fundamentals remain the same. Risk to reward is now 1:4. Below is the previous ideas description which is still valid with the new price levels mentioned above: Previous idea (Stop loss hit): SPX500 is at a crucial inflection point. Will the support hold, or are we breaking down? Previous ideas setup identified on 11th January has now come into fruition: 📈 Current Setup: 📈 The SPX500 is approaching major resistance at 6,663.37 - the 0.618 Fibonacci Extension of the most recent high timeframe move dating back to July 2024 - present. The previous low in July 2024 also happens to be the previous touch of this same ascending channel. Check out our previously published long-term outlook on the SPX (view it out at the bottom of this publication). 🛩 Right now, we can see price is testing the channel's lower supporting trend line, which lines up nicely with previous structure support, and a 0.38% Fibonacci Retracement of the August 2024-present move. Having multiple confluences of supporting indications, as well as aligning with our longer time perspective on higher timeframe direction, it is likely we will see a bounce up from here. 📉 A failure to bounce here however could either be a fake-out or the top of the SPX. We do not believe this is the top, and we will not short should price break down further. We will sit back and monitor, looking for a new entry on the lower Fibonacci levels highlighted in our charts, with tight stops to minimize risk. 🔹 Key Resistance Levels (Potential Rejection Zones): 🎯 6,663.37 – 0.618 Fib extension + channel resistance + previous higher time frame idea (found at the bottom of this publication) 🎯 6,832.13 – 0.764 Fib extension, final inversion trigger for bears 🎯 7,000 – Psychological round-number top, multi-year equilibrium ceiling 🔹 Key Support Levels: ❗ 5,755.70 – 0.382 Fib retracement, 4x-tested structural support 🔹 5,624.61 – Channel midpoint convergence 📉 5,362.03 – 0.764 Fib retracement, final long opportunity supporting the idea of a 6,650 All-Time High, below this level leads to invalidation and bearish sentiment. 🚀 Bullish Scenario (Anticipated Play Before Long-Term Reversal): 🟢 Entry: Touch of channel support, previous structure support, 0.38 Fib 5,755.13 (validated sustained close). 🎯 Take Profit 1: 6,150 (Previous high). 🎯 Take Profit 2: 6,429 (-0.272 Fib extension). 🎯 Take Profit 3: 6,575 (See previous idea at the bottom of this publication). 🔴 Stop Loss: Below 5,629 (Bull invalidation). ✅ Justification: 🛩 The SPX has seen a dip recently, mostly as a result of geopolitical tension (see below), however, we believe based on our technical analysis both here and our long-term high time frame analysis that we will see the SPX push up one final time over the coming months before the bears take control. 🛩 Seasonal strength in early March and potential Fed dovishness could fuel momentum. 📉 Bearish Scenario (Primary Expectation Once 6,650 is Reached): ❌ Invalidation Level: Sustained close above 7,000 (Multi-decade equilibrium barrier). 🔹 Downside Short-Term Targets: 5,755.70 – 0.382 Fib + channel support. 5,624.61 – Mid-channel gravity. 5,362.03 – 0.764 Fib extension + recent channel low. 🔹 Downside Long-Term Targets: 5,500 – 0.382 Fib 4,700 – 0.618 Fib Retracement & previous high 4,300 – 0.764 Fib Retracement - Unlikely, but possible. ✅ Justification: ❗ Please read - ❗ Higher Time Frame Long-Term Analysis - ❗ Geopolitical/economic risks (see fundamentals below) could accelerate downside. ⚡ Key Takeaways: 🛩 SPX500 is at a crossroads: Bearish reversal likely if rejected at 6,663.37–6,832.13. 🛩 Breakdown below 5,755.70 confirms channel breakdown, targeting 5,362.03. 🛩 Bullish bias requires hold above 6,832.13; otherwise, bears dominate. 📰 Fundamental Catalysts (March 8–15, 2025): Economic Releases: 🗓 Mar 10: U.S. CPI Inflation (High Impact) – Core CPI at 3.2% y/y could force Fed hawkishness. 🗓 Mar 12: Retail Sales (High Impact) – Expected 0.3% MoM post-holiday slowdown. 🗓 Mar 14: FOMC Meeting & Dot Plot – Fed may hike +50bps ahead of 2025 elections. 🌐 Geopolitical Developments: 🗓 Mar 11: Belgium Elections – Risk of coalition fragmentation delaying EU fiscal unity. 🗓 Mar 13: Middle East Tensions – Reported Iran-Israel escalation impacts energy markets. 🗓 Ongoing: Brexit 2.0 Developments – UK-EU trade deal negotiations resume, GBP volatility. 📊 Portfolio Management Strategy: 💰 Buy Entry: At 5,755.70 (0.382 Fib confluence). 🎯 Take Profit: 6,570 (Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:6). ❌ Stop Loss: Below 5,624.61 (50% Fib).
BLACKBULL:US500.FLong
by Who-Is-Caerus
Skeptic | SPX Outlook: Bounce or Breakdown?Welcome back, guys! 👋I’m Skeptic , and today we’re diving into a complete analysis of SPX on the 4-hour time frame. We’ll break down the market structure and identify key long and short triggers for potential entries. Let’s get into it! 🔍 Market Overview Starting with the weekly time frame, it’s clear that the major trend remains uptrend . However, the daily time frame shows that we’ve entered a secondary corrective downtrend . This has been mainly driven by recent trade tariffs between the U.S. and other countries, leading the Federal Reserve to hold off on interest rate cuts, causing a drop in risk assets like stocks and BTC. On the 4-hour time frame , we’re currently in a range box that recently saw a fake breakout to the downside. The price quickly bounced back into the range, signaling buyer strength and seller exhaustion . This adds a slight long bias, as the probability of hitting targets on long trades might be higher. 💡 Long Setup Our first long trigger comes after a break of resistance at 5,564.67 . To increase the probability, we should wait for momentum confirmation, such as 3 SMA crossover or any momentum indicator of your choice. The main long trigger would be after a confirmed breakout of the range box at 5,641.22. Be cautious, as this entry might carry some risk, so confirmation is crucial. 🚩 Short Setup For short positions, I’m looking for a break below support at 5,549.77 , signaling a breakdown of the range box. However, considering the previous fake breakout, I’d prefer to wait for the first down leg to complete, followed by a pullback or indecision candle before entering short. Let me know your thoughts on SPX ! 💬 Drop any questions or ideas in the comments, and I’ll be happy to discuss them. Let’s grow together, not alone! ❤
SPREADEX:SPX
by SkepticWise
1
more fall Pattern Identified: On the chart provided (originally a 5-minute chart), a descending triangle is observed between points (A), (B), (C), (D), and (E). If we group the movements on a 15-minute timeframe, the pattern would still be relevant, but with less noise and more consolidated candles. Point A: Initial high around 5567.3, marking the start of the downtrend. Point B: Initial support of the triangle, near 5520.1. Point C: Descending resistance of the triangle, showing a price compression. Point D: Lower support of the triangle, also near 5520.1. Point E: A bearish breakout below D is confirmed, with the price falling toward 5500. Analysis: On a 15-minute timeframe, the descending triangle would indicate consolidation after an initial downtrend. A breakout below D (5520) confirms the bearish continuation. Volume (not visible on the chart, but a factor to consider) likely increased during the breakout, validating the move. The price appears to be heading toward more significant support around 5500, which has already been tested. Projection: Bearish Target: If the price continues to decline, the next key level could be between 5480 and 5470, depending on historical support or the projected height of the triangle. Bullish Reversal: If the price rebounds from 5500 and breaks above the triangle resistance (around 5540), we could see a further move toward 5567. Strategy: Short: Entry after the breakout at D (5520), with a stop loss adjusted above the triangle resistance (5540) and an initial profit-taking at 5480. Buy (Alternate Scenario): If the price rebounds from 5500 and breaks higher, enter above 5540, with a stop loss below 5520 and a profit-taking at 5567. Risk Management: Take a 1-2% risk per trade and monitor macroeconomic events that may affect the S&P 500. Note: This analysis is for informational purposes only and is based on a simulated 15-minute timeframe. Be sure to confirm this with a real 15-minute chart and apply appropriate risk management.
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by JAG_Trader
If SPX Rallies Here… I’m Hitting the Sell Button HardIf SPX Rallies Here… I’m Hitting the Sell Button Hard | SPX Analysis 14 Mar 2025 The lazy bear keeps rolling downhill, but if history has anything to say about it, it might just wake up for a quick stretch before heading lower again. 📌 Last time, SPX pushed down, bounced, then continued lower. 📌 Gamma Exposure suggests 5500/5520 are price magnets, with 5550 acting as resistance. 📌 A short-term pop before another drop wouldn’t be surprising. With bear swings already unloading, profits are stacking up, but there’s still plenty of juice left in the move. I’ll be watching for one more push higher before looking for the next bearish entry—unless the market decides to hand me a clean setup first. Otherwise? I’m calling it early for some live music, a zoo visit, and a St. Paddy’s pint. 🎷🍻 Let’s break it down… --- Deeper Dive Analysis: The market continues to stair-step lower, but like any good trend, nothing moves in a straight line forever. 📌 The Setup – Is a Bounce Before the Next Drop Coming? If you look at past price action, the last time SPX broke down, it: Pushed lower. Briefly popped back up. Then continued the descent. Now, we’re seeing a similar structure forming. 📌 GEX Levels Are Painting a Clear Picture Using my new toy, Gamma Exposure, I’m watching: 5500/5520 acting as magnets—price is likely drawn to them. 5550 as a possible resistance level before rolling back down. If price rallies into these levels, I’ll be hunting bearish entries. 📌 Trade Execution Plan – Stick With What Works Delaying bullish trade ideas until we clear 5700. Looking for reversal setups and pulse bars around 5550. Targeting 5500/5520 for a possible low-of-day move. 📌 Profits Locked In—Time for a Break? Bear swings are paying out, and I’m sitting in a good position with my exposure. Some tranches have already hit profit targets. If more reach exit targets, I’ll reposition if the setup aligns. Otherwise, it’s time to enjoy a well-earned long weekend. The market can move without me for a couple of days—but if the setup is there, I’ll be ready to strike. 🎷 Saxophones, zoo visits, and a St. Patrick’s pint are calling. 🍀 --- Fun Fact 📢 Did you know? The first recorded stock market crash happened in 1637—and it wasn’t stocks that crashed, it was… tulips. 💡 The Lesson? Markets have been overreacting to hype for centuries. Whether it’s tulips, tech stocks, or meme trades, human nature never changes—only the assets do.
SP:SPXShort
by MrPhilNewton
Did someone say, BEAR MARKET?!Oh yeah! I think it's time to start talking about the possibility and likelihood of the reality we are seeing. I enjoy doing more educational and analytical posts, and my goal this year was to do more of them again—so here we go, round two of 2025! Let’s Talk About the Market It's selling, in case you hadn’t noticed. Some may say “correction,” but I say tomato, tom-ah-to. The reality is that a bear market is, at its core, a correction. Historically, bear markets haven’t just started for no reason. It’s not like the S&P 500 wakes up one day and has this conversation with the NASDAQ: S&P: Yo, Nazzy. NAZ: What? S&P: Let’s do something new. NAZ: What? S&P: Let’s tank and shake the whole world. You up for it? NAZ: I don’t... I don’t know, I don’t think... S&P: Nah, nah, trust me. It’ll be funny. Let’s ruin some 401(k)s and give the economy a real shock. It’ll be hilarious! You in? NAZ: I... I don’t... fine, I guess. 🙄 Yeah, no. The reality is that bear markets result from multiple factors, such as: Bubbles Over-exuberance Changing economic conditions Changing geopolitical factors Many other interconnected influences Every bear market in the long history of the S&P has been the result of several of these factors combined. No bear market ever materialized out of thin air. While some crashes have occurred for questionable reasons—such as Black Monday in the 1980s—true bear markets typically result from a prolonged accumulation of unsustainable growth. This could be due to: Outpricing the average investor (which the S&P currently does). Being fueled by speculative innovation (we have AI hype today, just as the ‘90s had dot-com hype). Becoming disproportionately large compared to the actual monetary supply in which it operates (as of 2025, the S&P 500 is valued higher than the U.S. money supply—more on that later). So, as you can see, we have some basis for a bear market thesis here. Blame Trump? I see a lot of people blaming Trump, so let me preface this—I don’t support him, but I’m not about to make this a politically fueled post because that would distract from the real issue at hand. The reality is that he’s not the root cause of the market’s decline. These structural factors existed pre-Trump and will exist post-Trump once this correction is complete. However, while he may not be the root cause, he is certainly throwing fuel on the fire. His obsession with tariffs, economic instability, and personal financial gains (cough crypto cough) has arguably added to the growing lack of confidence in the market. Investors and hedge funds aren’t dumb—when Warren Buffett and other major firms pulled out before the decline started, that should have been the first warning sign. The market was already reaching astronomically high valuations. However, recovery may take longer when the leader of the economy is actively contributing to instability rather than fostering confidence. The Crypto Situation—A Warning Sign What Trump did with crypto raises serious concerns. If crypto can be manipulated for personal gain, who’s to say the NYSE itself won’t be next? Elon Musk and others have already gotten away with market manipulation, setting a dangerous precedent of complacency from the SEC. In my opinion, investor confidence should have eroded long ago. To put numbers behind this sentiment, the American Association of Individual Investors conducts a weekly survey on investor sentiment. As of March 13, 2025, results show: Only 19% of investors are bullish 60% are bearish This marks the 4th consecutive week of majority bearish sentiment Complex Market Dynamics There’s a lot happening right now that complicates the situation. Months ago, I posted a video about the US Money Supply vs. the S&P 500, available here: In this video, I discuss how overextended the market is relative to the US money supply. The only way to sustain current valuations would be to drastically increase the money supply. But here’s the problem: 📌 Increasing the money supply = higher inflation With the US already narrowly avoiding recessions since 2022, increasing the money supply further would exacerbate inflation, leading to even greater economic instability. Check out this chart I plotted, showing US Money Supply (green) vs. Inflation (red): As you can see, whenever the money supply increases, inflation follows. Tariffs & The Economy Many people assume that tariffs increase the money supply—but that’s not how it works. The USA is not self-sufficient (no country is), and it still relies on imports. Who actually pays the tariff? Not the foreign country—the domestic consumers do. For example, when an American buys a product made in China, they pay the tariff cost, which is then sent back to China. It’s a net-zero game that hurts both economies without providing any real financial advantage. Let’s Get Mathy 🤓 Now, let’s bring in the math. In my last money supply video, I used visual scaling and qualitative comparison. But for a rigorous analysis, we need to: Assess cointegration Ensure stationarity Develop a cointegrated pair regression If the US Money Supply and the S&P 500 are cointegrated and stationary, we can use the money supply to predict the S&P’s valuation. And guess what? They are. Using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test (for stationarity) and the Johansen Cointegration Test, we get positive results: This confirms a strong relationship between US Money Supply & the S&P 500 across multiple cointegrated vectors. The Cointegration Equation Running a cointegration regression in R, we get this equation: 📌 y = 2.046e-10x - 1.492e+02 Where X = current money supply and Y = expected S&P 500 valuation. Plugging in today’s money supply gives us an expected S&P value of 4,262.571. Accounting for error range (σ = 294.8): Upper Bound: 4,557.371 Lower Bound: 3,967.771 I’ve incorporated this equation into PineScript to show you here: Will the S&P Correct to the Money Supply? Not necessarily. Money supply is dynamic, and as it increases, so will the expected S&P valuation. This relationship will persist until equilibrium is restored. We can see this in historical data: The Verdict This is a much-needed correction—or bear market, call it what you want. The S&P’s growth rate was unsustainable, especially in relation to: The US Money Supply Speculative AI-driven hype Economic & geopolitical instability Whether the S&P falls all the way to equilibrium or they meet somewhere in the middle remains to be seen. But one way or another—equilibrium will be restored. This post is already long enough, so I’ll leave it at that! Thanks for reading, and as always—safe trades! 🚀
SP:SPXShort
by Steversteves
17
SPX Volume profile support and gap through. Must know toolI have taken a volume profile across the rally to project Low value nodes and high value nodes to find support levels during the decline. I simply cannot emphasis enough how valuable this tool is if learn to use correctly. I use this conjunction with geometry (hidden here) Most us know prices will come to fill the price gaps in the future, but LVN and HVN can provide information that price and volume cannot provide on their own. Eg a large bar could have a heavy volume, but you wouldn't know at what price the volume was, whether it was at the opening or closing, unless you look at the VP. Inspite of a huge volume there could be a price gap hidden in the bar
SP:SPXShort
by krisoz