Get started
US 500US 500US 500

US 500

No trades
See on Supercharts
Overview News
Ideas
Discussions Technicals Seasonals

US500 trade ideas

S&P 500 index Wave Analysis 22 January 2025 - S&P 500 index broke resistance levels 6000.00 and 6060.00 - Likely to rise to resistance level 6110.00 S&P 500 index recently broke the resistance levels 6000.00 (top of the previous minor correction) and 6060.00 (top of the previous wave B from December). The breakout of these resistance levels accelerated the active intermediate impulse sequence (3) from the start of January. Given the strong multi-month uptrend, S&P 500 index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 6110.00, top of the previous impulse wave (1).
SP:SPXLong
by FxProGlobal
SPX/ Critical Price Zones and Bullish trend The current price action is trading at a bullish level within a sensitive zone, marked between 6,102 and 6,002. For today's projection, the price is expected to initially test the upper boundary of this zone at 6,102. Upon reaching this resistance level, it is anticipated that the price will face rejection, leading to a short-term correction. However, following this retracement, bullish momentum may resume, driving the price upwards again with an aim to break the last resistance level at 6,102. If this breakout occurs, the market would likely establish a new high level, signaling a continuation of the uptrend. Conversely, for a bearish scenario to unfold, the price would need to decisively break below the 6,002 support level. This would require a 4-hour candle to close below this critical zone, confirming a downward trend. If such a break occurs, it could lead to a significant price drop, potentially targeting the lower support levels.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by ArinaKarayi
Trump: The Catalyst for the Wall Street MovementBy Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst Yesterday Wall Street closed in green, with the Dow Jones Industrials up 1.24% to 44,025 units, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.88% to 6,049 points and the Nasdaq rose 0.64% to close at 19,756 points. This optimism in the markets was mainly driven by expectations about President Donald Trump's future economic measures. One of the factors that generated confidence among investors was the perception that Trump's tariff policies, which include the possible imposition of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada as of February 1, would be more moderate than expected. This, in turn, stimulated risk appetite in the markets, encouraging a positive close for Wall Street's major indices. Traders are likely to be particularly attentive to the president's policies related to public debt, tariffs, taxes and immigration. The U.S. economy relies heavily on steady immigration and relatively cheap labor. The cessation of this immigration flow could lead to price increases in various sectors, which would increase inflation. In addition, the mass deportation of immigrants could lead to an increase in labor demand and, therefore, a rise in wages, which would also have an inflationary impact. On the other hand, the trade agreement between Mexico and Europe was also on investors' radar, given its potential impact on tariff dynamics and international trade. The recent renewal of the trade agreement between Mexico and the European Union could ease some of the trade tensions that had been worrying markets. This agreement strengthens economic ties between the two regions, which could partially mitigate the negative effects of the tariffs imposed by Trump. At the same time, it improves the outlook for European and Mexican companies that depend on smooth trade, which ultimately benefits global investors as well. On the corporate front, the shares of some of the major technology companies benefited from the good market climate. Nvidia (NVDA) and Amazon (AMZN) rose 2%, while Alphabet (GOOGL) advanced 1%. However, Apple (AAPL) experienced a 3% drop after receiving a downgrade from two analyst firms. By sectors, industrials (+2.03 %) and real estate (+1.83 %) led the gains, while the energy sector closed negative with a 0.64 % drop. Among the 30 largest listed companies in the Dow Jones, 3M (MMM) and Caterpillar (CAT) were the main gainers, with increases of 4.16 % and 3.58 %, respectively. In the commodities markets, US WTI fell by 2.5 % to 75.89 dollars per barrel, while gold rose to 2,757 dollars per ounce. The euro maintained its exchange rate at 1.0427 dollars. In summary, investor optimism on Wall Street was driven by the expectation that Donald Trump's economic policies, especially regarding tariffs and immigration, could be less stringent than anticipated. In addition, the renewal of the trade agreement between Mexico and the European Union brought an additional dose of stability to the market. However, risks stemming from the uncertainty surrounding these policies remain a key variable to follow in the coming weeks. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:USA500Long
by ActivTrades
S&P500 smashed every Resistance on its way to 6350.The S&P500 index (SPX) hit and rebounded today on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), following last week's break-out. This is the confirmed start of the technical Bullish Leg of the 6-month Channel Up along with the 1D MACD Bullish Cross. Having made a Higher Low on the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) last Monday (January 13), we are expecting the standard 1.786 Fibonacci extension as the next Higher High of the pattern. That gives us a 6350 Target. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot
1
$SPX Analysis, Key Levels & Targets For Today & Tomorrow We are above the 50 day moving average the one hour to under moving average and 35 EMA on the 30 minute timeframe and then we have that up gap from last Friday all on the downside of the trading range. We are currently at a resistance level here, and above it we have another one at 6045 (top of the implied move) which was a support in December before we broke down and then it turned into a resistance. We have an island gap underneath the 30 minute tun removing average above the four hour to removing average and just remember they always do fill. It doesn’t have to be this week but it definitely could be so if you’re bar that might be a good place to look to take profits if we do go down. I will dive much more deeply into these levels on tonight's video, but for now we at least have them. Things to Watch this Week: Earnings Reports: Major companies like Netflix (NFLX), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Procter & Gamble (PG), United Airlines (UAL), General Electric (GE), Alaska Air (ALK), American Airlines (AAL), CSX Corporation (CSX), Verizon (VZ), HCA Healthcare (HCA), and American Express (AXP) are set to release their earnings. These reports can significantly influence market sentiment and stock prices. Manufacturing PMI: The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing will provide insight into the health of the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 suggests contraction. This data can influence expectations about economic growth and interest rates. Services PMI: Similarly, the Services PMI will give an overview of the service sector's performance. Given the service sector's substantial contribution to the economy, this data is critical for understanding overall economic trends. Home Sales: Data on existing home sales can shed light on consumer confidence and spending in the housing market, which is a major component of economic activity. Changes in home sales can signal shifts in economic health. Jobless Claims: Weekly initial jobless claims numbers are a pulse check on the labor market. Rising claims might indicate economic slowdown, while falling claims suggest job growth and economic strength. Market Volatility: The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has been noted to be fluctuating, which might continue this week. Monitoring the VIX can help assess market fear or complacency. Interest Rate Sensitivity: With the Federal Reserve’s actions on interest rates being a focal point, any indication of future policy direction from Fed officials' speeches or economic data releases could sway markets. Look for comments from Fed members or economic reports that might hint at rate adjustments. Sector Performance: Particularly, keep an eye on sectors like Technology (with companies like Nvidia potentially leading AI trends), Health Care, and Consumer Discretionary, which have shown movements or are expected to with upcoming earnings. Global Economic Indicators: International developments, especially from major economies like China or the Eurozone, can impact U.S. markets due to globalization. Look for news on global manufacturing, services, or policy changes that could affect investor sentiment. Geopolitical Events: Although not directly mentioned in recent market summaries, geopolitical tensions or developments, like trade negotiations or conflicts, can influence markets. Keep an ear out for any significant international news that might ripple through financial markets.
SP:SPX
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
Stock Market Show Relative Initial Calm After Trump InaugurationFollowing the inauguration of Donald Trump and the observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day, U.S. stock markets resumed activity with a positive tone, as the S&P 500 advanced 0.4% at the start of the session. This initial optimism is supported by the relative calm that followed the first day of operations under the new administration. Although the president reiterated his intention to reform the trade system to “protect Americans” and threatened tariffs and duties on foreign countries, later making specific references to Mexico and Canada with a potential 25% tariff starting in February, the absence of concrete measures created a sense of tranquility in the markets. This lack of immediate action, contrasting with prior rhetoric, has been a key factor for stabilization. The initial moderation in implementing trade measures, compared to the campaign tone, has injected caution and optimism into the markets. This pause allows investors to carefully assess future economic directives. This respite is also reflected in the fixed-income market. Yields on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond have declined, dropping below the 4.6% threshold after hitting a multi-year high of 4.8% on January 14. This decline in yields supports risk-taking in other assets, fueling optimism in the equity market. However, it is crucial to remain cautious. While the absence of drastic initial measures has calmed markets, uncertainties surrounding trade policies are likely to resurface in the future. Potential trade moves and their impact on inflation remain a risk factor to closely monitor. It is too early to celebrate a definitive victory on the trade front. Tensions are highly likely to reignite and generate market volatility. The key will be to observe the evolution of negotiations and the actual implementation of announced policies. Looking ahead, attention will begin to shift to the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Investors will be particularly attentive to any indications providing clarity on the stance of the Federal Reserve (Fed), especially following the economic optimism that characterized the early weeks of January. Recent inflationary economic data, such as the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which showed positive surprises, have helped to relatively moderate expectations for a more restrictive monetary policy. The FOMC meeting will be crucial to understanding the Fed’s view on the current state of the economy and its future outlook. Any signals regarding the direction of interest rates, as is customary, will have a significant impact on the markets. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by Pepperstone
The S&P 500 May Have Positive SignsStocks have declined since early December, but some traders may expect the longer-term uptrend to resume. The first pattern on today’s S&P 500 chart is 5,783, the close on Election Day (November 5). The index tested and held that level last week, potentially suggesting support is in place. Second is the falling trendline along the recent peaks. SPX may be attempting to push back above that resistance. Third, MACD is turning higher and prices are back above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). Next, the 63-day rate of change has been positive since November 2023. It bounced slightly above 0 last week to preserve that condition. Prices also held their rising 100-day SMA. Those points may confirm longer-term strength. Speaking of November 2023, last week saw the 10-year Treasury yield revisit levels from that period before dipping. Staying below those levels may be a positive for sentiment. Speaking of sentiment, the American Association of Individual Investors' (AAII) weekly survey just had a bullish reading of 25 percent and a bearish reading of 41 percent. Those were the most extreme on the negative side since early November 2023. In other words, three indicators point back to the start of the current bull run in November 2023: 63-day rate of change, the 10-year Treasury yield and AAII sentiment. In addition, data from FactSet suggests earnings are poised for their quickest growth since late 2021. Could those points -- combined with the technical patterns on SPX -- be interpreted as positives? TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
SP:SPX
by TradeStation
US Investors Focus on Earnings and S&P 500 OutlookUS Equity Investors Focus on Corporate Earnings and Policy Announcements US equity investors are set to focus on major corporate earnings this week while also keeping an eye on potential trade policy announcements from the Trump administration and developments in macroeconomic data. S&P 500 Analysis The S&P 500 price continues to exhibit bullish momentum, supported by strong buying pressure and robust fourth-quarter earnings results. There is potential for a corrective move toward 6000, which could act as a springboard for a further rally. If the price pushes higher, it may target 6051, and a sustained move above this level could see it test 6099. A 4-hour candle close above 6099 would strengthen the bullish case. To turn bearish, the price must break below 6000 and achieve a 4-hour candle close below 5969. Key Levels Pivot Point: 6020 Resistance Levels: 6051, 6099, 6143 Support Levels: 6000, 5969, 5937 Trend Outlook The trend remains bullish while the price stays above 6020 and 6000. A break below these levels could indicate a bearish shift. Previous idea:
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi
Key Week: Trump takes office and Davos kicks offThis week, two events dominate global attention: the inauguration of Donald Trump as president of the United States and the start of the World Economic Forum in Davos. Both promise to set the political and economic agenda for the coming months, with significant implications for financial markets and international relations. Both scenarios promise to generate volatility due to the implications they have, whether for the first executive orders of the new U.S. administration or for statements by world leaders in Switzerland. Trump and His First Mandates: A Full-Speed Start The presidential takeover in the United States was formalized yesterday with the arrival of Donald Trump to the White House. In a start marked by immediate action, the president signed more than 200 executive orders, underscoring his intention to swiftly execute his policy agenda. These initial measures cover areas such as the economy, trade, energy and immigration, and are designed to fulfill the promises that marked his presidential campaign. Notable measures include halting regulations in the energy sector designed to encourage domestic oil and gas production, and initiating the renegotiation of key trade agreements aimed at strengthening the competitiveness of the U.S. economy. These actions underscore the “America First” approach, seeking to reposition the United States as a global leader under new trade conditions. However, these decisions have generated mixed reactions both at home and abroad. While his supporters interpret them as a firm fulfillment of his campaign promises and strong leadership, while the more critical ones warn about the possible repercussions on the global economic balance and international diplomatic relations. Davos Forum: A Platform for Global Dialogue Simultaneously, in Switzerland, the World Economic Forum kicked off in Davos, an annual event that brings together political, business and social leaders from around the world, held this year under the theme “Collaboration in a Fragmented World.” This year, the forum is marked by a global context of uncertainty. Political, business and social leaders are gathering to discuss crucial issues such as sustainability, energy transition and digital transformation. Trump's initial prominence has generated uncertainty in the discussions overshadowing part of the agenda. Leaders from Europe, Asia and Latin America are adjusting their strategies to face possible changes in trade and global diplomacy in the face of the possible implications of U.S. policies. Of particular note are the expected interventions of Chinese President Xi Jinping and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who are seeking to position their regions in the face of the new U.S. approach. The forum reflects an urgent need for international cooperation at a time when political and economic tensions challenge the global order. However, concrete responses will depend on the ability of leaders to coordinate actions in the face of common challenges. Market Impact: Volatility and Mixed Expectations Markets have reacted with mixed movements to the confluence of Trump's mandate and the start of the Davos Forum. In the United States, sectors such as banking and energy have shown significant gains, driven by expectations of deregulation and economic stimulus from the new administration. On the other hand, US Treasury bonds recorded slight declines, reflecting greater risk aversion among investors in the face of political uncertainty. In Europe, stock markets have shown a stronger performance, with value markets leading the rally in more traditional equities, outperforming their US peers, while in Asia, indices have maintained a cautious tone. Commodities have also been strong performers, especially oil, which is up 1.7% on expectations of increased global demand. Agricultural products, such as corn, have also strengthened, anticipating possible imbalances in the global economic cycle. From a technical perspective, the S&P 500 is at a critical point within a bearish channel. A breakout to the upside could mark a shift to a more optimistic trend, although sentiment indicators remain ambiguous: while retail investors show extreme enthusiasm, other general confidence indices point to a more conservative approach. Europe as a Strategic Haven Although the outlook remains fraught with uncertainty, Europe presents itself as an attractive option in the near term, especially with the optimism surrounding its value markets. As global leaders set the economic tone in Davos and U.S. policies take shape, investors should keep an eye on key indicators and technical movements in the major indices. As leaders in Davos set the tone for 2025 and the Trump administration moves forward with its policies, investors should keep an eye on key indicators and technical signals in the major indices. It will undoubtedly be a week loaded with information and events that will test the markets' ability to adapt to an ever-changing environment. Conclusion The week is marked by two events of major global significance: the start of Donald Trump's term in office and the Davos Economic Forum. Both have set in motion dynamics that could define the course of politics and the global economy in 2025. As markets navigate between volatility and expectation they face a week loaded with crucial information and events, the focus will be on how these developments will impact international relations and the outlook for economic growth globally. The challenge will be to adapt to a constantly changing environment, balancing risks and opportunities in an increasingly complex global scenario. Ion Jauregui - Analyst ActivTrades ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:USA500
by ActivTrades
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 1.21.2024🔮 📅 Tue Jan 21 🗓️ Day 2 📍 WEF Annual Meetings 📅 Wed Jan 22 🗓️ Day 3 📍 WEF Annual Meetings 📅 Thu Jan 23 🗓️ Day 4 📍 WEF Annual Meetings ⏰ 8:30am 📊 Unemployment Claims: 220K (prev: 217K) ⏰ 11:00am 🛢️ Crude Oil Inventories: -2.0M 📅 Fri Jan 24 🗓️ Day 5 📍 WEF Annual Meetings ⏰ 9:45am 📊 Flash Manufacturing PMI: 49.4 📊 Flash Services PMI: 56.8 ⏰ 10:00am 📊 Existing Home Sales: 4.19M (prev: 4.15M) 📊 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment: 73.2 💡 Market Insights: 📈 GAP ABOVE HPZ: On a gap up, we will get pinned down at HPZ back into the EEZ. 📊 OPEN WITHIN EEZ: A lot of resistance overhead. Markets should cool down after the gaps from last week. Small rally into fade downwards. 📉 GAP BELOW HCZ: We will likely get a small bounce and hold. #trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting #investing
SP:SPXShort
by PogChan
US500 Price can continue move down Hi traders what do you think about US500 given suggestion in comments. US500 suggesting a bearish trend with potential support levels at 6015.00 and 5810.00. If you're considering taking a position based on this analysis: Bearish Trend: You might expect the price to continue lower from current levels. Entry at 6015.00: If the price approaches this level and starts to show signs of reversal, you could consider shorting (selling). Support at 5810.00: the price continues to fall or reverses. If it breaks this support, further downside may be expected. if you like this analysis please support my work like and fallow thanks for love.
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by FxJennefir
1
Weekly GEX Insights: 01/13 SPX dropTotal Correction? What Can an Options Trader Do in This Situation? How Far Might We Fall This Week? We’ll tackle these questions in this week’s options newsletter! It looks like the new president hasn’t even been sworn in yet, but the market is already reacting with fear to every statement he makes. Last week’s economic data didn’t help ease those concerns either. SPX Weekly Analysis Friday’s red candle set a bearish tone heading into this week. Everyone is predicting and pricing in a potential market apocalypse, and I keep getting the same question: “Greg, how far can we fall?” My answer remains the same: we can fall indefinitely—nobody can know for certain ahead of time. What we can do, however, is analyze our charts and use the our weekly GEX profile to identify the key levels, so we can better understand the market’s dynamics. Examining expirations through Friday, every NETGEX profile is negative , so we can expect volatile movements this week. We’re currently trading below the HVL level, which means that market makers are likely to move in tandem with retail traders. This typically results in bigger swings. We already saw this heightened volatility last week—just look at the size of the candles, and you can tell how quickly sentiment can shift. Below 5965 (the HVL level), we are in a high volatility zone what lies underneath? 1st Support Range: 5780–5800 5800: Currently the strongest PUT support level on the downside. A correction may pause here due to profit-taking. Right beneath this level is the previous gap-fill zone. Remember, these areas function as ranges rather than single lines, as I’ve highlighted down to 5780. This could easily be a take-profit target for traders playing gap fills—an approach that’s quite popular. 2nd Support Range: 5700–5650 (Very Strong) Starting at 5700: We encounter another robust PUT support zone. This area is reinforced by previous lows, previous highs, and the 4/8 grid boundary from our indicator. Even if nowhere else, many expect at least a local rebound to occur within these levels. Putting it all together, it’s clear that the weekly trading range is shaping up to be roughly between 5680 and 5965, expecting big & volatile moves. Remember, CPI and PPI data are coming out on Tuesday and Wednesday, which could trigger additional volatility. When looking at SPX, SPY, or /ES futures, my opinion is that the rapidly spiking implied volatility (IV) during a market drop, along with a PUT pricing skew, can present favorable opportunities for options traders. The distance to the strongest lower support zone is around 100–150 points, so you could: Trade directionally for the short term—hoping to be either right or wrong quickly, or Try to profit from the market situation in a more strategic way (which is what I typically do). Personally, I prefer the second approach: I’ll open short-term (a few days) credit put ratio spreads for a small credit, which gives me a wide breakeven range and a big “tent” on the downside.
SP:SPX
by TanukiTrade
Trump Returns to the White House: Tariffs EyedToday’s inauguration is undoubtedly a big event for traders, analysts, and the global economy. Everyone is watching. Let’s be frank: regardless of your opinion of Donald Trump or his proposed policies, his Presidential election win over Democrat candidate Kamala Harris on 5 November 2024 was nothing short of remarkable. It was a sweeping victory, and Trump returns to the White House today. Trump’s inauguration is expected to begin at 5:00 pm GMT (midday EST) and marks the start of his second term in office. Robust Economy Provides ‘Tariff’ Legroom for Trump While tariffs are undoubtedly inbound, it is unclear what plans Trump will pursue and when he will implement these strategies. Investors are concerned that imposing tariffs could stoke inflation and hinder consumption (and consequently put the brakes on economic growth). According to the latest data (December 2024), we have seen an uptick in US inflation. Year-on-year (YY), CPI inflation (Consumer Price Index) rose for a third consecutive month to 2.9%, PPI inflation (Producer Price Index) also increased for a third straight month to 3.3%, and the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) primary measure of inflation, the PCE Index (Personal Consumption Expenditures), is hovering just north of the Fed’s 2.0% inflation target at 2.4% (for November 2024). This, coupled with real US GDP (Gross Domestic Product) running at an annualised rate of 3.1% in Q3 24 and jobs data showing that the US economy added 256,000 new payrolls in December 2024, reveals Trump has legroom (some ‘cover’ if you will) to impose tariffs early on in his tenure. Trump Tariff ‘Threats’ So Far Speculation regarding the possibility of as many as 100 executive orders being signed today has been circulating the wires. Plenty of ambiguity is unquestionably present heading into today’s event, and the market dislikes uncertainty. Concerning tariff ‘plans’, Trump has floated several possible approaches, including 100% tariffs against BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) unless their governments commit to the US dollar (USD), as well as tariff threats against Canada, China, and Mexico. Trump voiced intentions of introducing 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico and adding an additional 10% tariff on goods from China. What Will I Be Watching Today? Today, I will primarily be looking for any direction on tariffs, particularly concerning Canada, Mexico, and China. Let’s assume Trump follows through on his threats to Canada and Mexico. A 25% tariff (or more) applied on goods from Canada and Mexico will prompt upside in currency pairs like the USD/CAD (US dollar versus the Canadian dollar) and USD/MXN (US dollar versus the Mexican peso) – for those who monitor implied volatility, check out USD/CAD; we are at levels not seen since early 2023! A 25% tariff on the aforesaid countries will also likely trigger a bid in the US Dollar Index and absorb offers around major resistance at 109.33. In contrast, major US equity indexes are expected to take a hit in this scenario. Another observation I feel needs some consideration is the USD positioning heading into this event. The USD is particularly stretched to the upside for those who monitor COT data (Commitment of Traders report). However, although this may be the case, I still expect USD outperformance on the back of 25% tariffs. Nevertheless, were Trump to pursue a lower tariff rate for Canada and Mexico or not to pursue tariffs at all, a considerable unwind in USD longs is possible, and downside in USD/CAD, USD/MXN, as well as the US Dollar Index, would be on the table (upside in US equities). A situation without tariffs would create considerable volatility and open the door to shorting opportunities in key currency pairs. Regarding China, if Trump were to follow through and impose a 10% additional tariff, this would likely send USD/CNY northbound (US dollar versus the Chinese yuan). Additionally, I expect the AUD/USD (Australian dollar versus the US dollar) and NZD/USD (New Zealand dollar versus the US dollar) pairs to trade lower, given their trading relationships with China. I also believe US and Chinese equity markets will sell off. Less than a 10% tariff or no tariffs on China would likely underpin AUD/USD, NZD/USD, and the noted equity markets (but weigh on the USD/CNY). Looking closely at the S&P 500, you will note that longer-term weekly action ended last Friday in the shape of a bullish engulfing formation, following a shallow correction from all-time highs of 6,099. This, together with the clear-cut uptrend and daily price climbing above its 50-day simple moving average at 5,967 (and a lack of obvious daily resistance), places bulls in a favourable position to challenge all-time highs, technically speaking. Written by FP Markets Market Analyst Aaron Hill
SP:SPXLong
by FPMarkets
US500 1. Weekly Timeframe 1. Ascending Parallel Channel & Middle Line • The US 500 has been moving in a broad rising channel. Respect for the midline (the “median” of that parallel channel) can indicate strong internal structure to the uptrend. • Price repeatedly holding near or above the 20 EMA on the weekly bolsters the view that buyers are active on dips. 2. Order Blocks • The 5800 area (per your chart scaling) served as a weekly order block where price reacted sharply upward, underlining that region as a significant support/demand zone. 3. Ichimoku • A bullish Ichimoku profile on the weekly suggests the higher timeframe trend remains up. Cloud support has not been violated. 4. Momentum & Capital Flows • RSI in the 60+ zone and a MACD that, while it’s in a “bearish waning” phase, is not strongly diverging from price yet. • CMF (Chaikin Money Flow) staying above zero indicates consistent capital inflows, reinforcing a buy-the-dips sentiment on the weekly timeframe. Weekly Summary The weekly trend remains structurally bullish, with dips finding support both at EMAs and near identified order blocks. Momentum is not overheated. Any near-term pullback would likely remain within the broader bullish framework unless it severely violates key structure or the 20/50 weekly EMAs. 2. Daily Timeframe 1. Channel Structures • You mentioned an ascending channel from the September low that was broken to the downside during the recent consolidation. Since that channel is now invalid, it’s prudent to monitor price action to see how a new channel or range might form. • The invalidation of a channel can simply mean the market has shifted into a different angle of attack—a new channel or wedge may emerge. 2. EMAs & Bollinger Bands • Despite the consolidation, the daily EMAs (particularly the 50 and 100) remain upward sloping, which is a hallmark of an intact bullish trend on a medium-term basis. • Multiple wicks into the 100 EMA, followed by strong closes back above shorter EMAs, highlight that area as reliable dynamic support. • Hovering in the upper Bollinger band region often correlates with bullish continuation, though it can also precede a near-term pullback if price spends too long “riding the band.” 3. Ichimoku • Price briefly dipped below the Cloud but has now pushed back inside it. Generally, a close back above the Ichimoku Cloud on the daily would be more definitive proof of renewed bullish momentum, so staying watchful here makes sense. 4. Daily Order Blocks • You mention the 5842 level and the possibility that the market “closed below” it but then reversed after tagging the 100 EMA. That underscores that not every technical zone breaks price conclusively; strong dynamic support (EMAs) and overall liquidity hunts can overshadow a single daily close below an order block. 5. Momentum Indicators • RSI’s move back over 50 is a bullish sign of momentum improvement, and the MACD turning positive again on the daily further underpins that reading. • However, your logic that a short push higher could trigger a contrarian fade (especially if the put-call ratio is extremely low) is consistent with typical overbought or euphoric conditions. Daily Summary Still leaning bullish with strong evidence of higher lows and reliable EMA bounces. A near-term pullback could be triggered by an overextension or liquidity sweep. However, dips may be limited or quickly bid up given that daily momentum has reasserted itself to the upside. 3. Four-Hour & Lower Timeframes 1. Recent Bearish Structure / Falling Triangle • You noted that price broke out of a near-term bearish pattern (descending wedge/triangle). • The typical post-breakout playbook suggests a retest is likely—this could coincide with the broad idea of not chasing the market. Let it come back, see if a retest holds, and then it’s a safer entry. 2. Order Blocks & Overextension • The next 4H order block (e.g., ~6056) may be a target on a momentum spurt. If that run materializes quickly, it can “tap” that level and then retrace. • On the 4H RSI or Stochastics, any overextension into 70-80 zone often leads to a temporary pause. The presence of a contrarian put-call ratio environment lends further credence to expecting a short-term fade. 3. One-Hour Minor Trendline • Price is riding a minor uptrend line. Intra-day, these lines can break quickly, sometimes triggering algorithmic or retail stops. You anticipate that break, a sell-off that then loses momentum (bearish momentum wanes), and the broader uptrend resumes. That is a classic scenario for trading the “fake breakdown” or retest to see if the higher-timeframe bullish structure is truly intact. Intraday Summary The short-term structure has turned positive after the recent breakout. However, be prepared for a retest or a quick liquidity sweep that fakes out short-term traders before resuming the uptrend. Patience is key; avoid FOMO entries. 4. Seasonality & Macro Considerations 1. January Barometer • The adage goes: “As goes January, so goes the year.” While not a guaranteed prophecy, a strong January often sets a bullish tone for the year. • We’re seeing typical January volatility. The fact it’s net positive so far supports an overall bullish tilt for 2025 (in your chart’s labeling). 2. Put-Call Ratio • A low (or persistently dropping) put-call ratio can be a contrarian indicator. Extreme complacency in the options market sometimes precedes short-term pullbacks, even if the bigger trend remains bullish. 3. Economic Backdrop & Earnings • While you haven’t delved deeply into fundamentals or macro, remember that news flow (earnings, rate expectations, etc.) can disrupt purely technical plays. • If the fundamental backdrop remains supportive, it can help keep corrections shallow. Overall Synthesis analysis points to a medium- to long-term uptrend that is intact (weekly and daily) while acknowledging a near-term risk of an overextension or liquidity sweep (4H and below). The best general approach to avoid FOMO is: 1. Stay Aligned with the Higher Trend • The weekly/daily structure and indicators (EMAs, RSI, MACD) lean bullish, so buying dips is generally more favorable than trying to short. 2. Wait for a Retest or Waning Bearish Momentum on Lower Timeframes • Confirmation after a minor pullback, retest of a broken trendline, or a known support (like the 4H or 1H EMAs, Ichimoku Cloud bottom, or an order block) is more reliable than chasing. 3. Manage Risk • Even if everything looks bullish, the market can and will surprise. Ensure stop-losses are strategically placed below a key structural level (e.g., below the 100 EMA on daily or a prior pivot low). 4. Seasonality Provides a Tailwind • A positive January frequently begets further strength in equities. However, remain mindful that short-term bouts of volatility are common in any bullish trend. technical picture: it’s a bullish environment on higher timeframes, with only short-term signals hinting at a possible pullback. The key is patience—focus on a tactical entry when (or if) the market dips rather than FOMO buying into the overextension. If no dip comes and it runs higher, wait for the next consolidation pattern to form and enter on that next, higher low.
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by EliteMarketAnalysis