Market SnapshotI really wonder how 1600 Pennsylvania Ave is going to explain away what happens later this year and into the next
This is not good people...this is not good
US500 trade ideas
S&P500 Index Goes 'Draconian', ahead of Roller Coaster ExplosionThe S&P 500's "roller coaster" behavior stems from its sensitivity to various economic, geopolitical, and market-specific factors that influence investor sentiment and corporate performance.
Economic Factors: Changes in interest rates, inflation, and Federal Reserve policies significantly impact the index. For example, rising interest rates can reduce corporate earnings and valuations, leading to market sell-offs. Conversely, expectations of rate cuts can boost optimism and drive rallies.
Investor Sentiment and Volatility: The S&P 500 is closely tied to the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often called the "fear gauge." The VIX rises during market downturns as investors seek portfolio protection, amplifying price swings. This inverse correlation highlights how fear or optimism can drive sharp movements in the index.
Global Events: Geopolitical tensions, natural disasters, or pandemics can disrupt markets by creating uncertainty about future economic performance. Such events often lead to sudden spikes or drops in the S&P 500 as investors react to perceived risks.
Valuation Cycles: Overvaluation or bubbles in specific sectors can lead to corrections. For instance, high price-to-earnings ratios combined with slower economic growth can result in prolonged periods of stagnation or volatility.
These factors collectively create the "roller coaster" effect begun in the S&P 500.
// Life is like a roller coaster, as you don't know what's going to be thrown at you next, so all you can do is give us your best shot.
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Best wishes,
@PandorraResearch Team 😎
SPX500 is heading to a major correction.Just reading the charts—and if history repeats itself, we’ve entered a weekly MACD and RSI downtrend.
I called this for Bitcoin a month ago, and some argued it could be invalidated. Now, we can see that’s nearly impossible.
Macro Outlook
The economy is in bad shape—you see the news.
Trump’s tariffs are scaring investors for a good reason. He wants to avoid money printing and tighten supply, but how will companies and institutions get cash? By selling their stocks.
No more free money—profits will have to come from selling assets, which will intentionally crash the market under Trump’s policy.
Cycles & Recession
We’re at the end of a cycle—everything is overbought and needs a reset before moving higher.
We’re in a recession, even if no one wants to admit it.
Conclusion
📉 Target price: 4850
📅 Estimated bottom: September 15, 2025
Expect volatility, occasional pumps, but on a weekly scale, the trend is down—unless something drastic happens. Q3 and Q4 will be bullish.
🚨 DYOR!
S&P Weekly... One More Shoulder?When we take a look at the weekly chart of the S&P with some indicators, seems like we are close to the end of a trend. RSI with the negative divergence, Stoch RSI and Macd heading down, possible head & shoulders pattern. Fibonacci (retracement) is also turning down from the 200 mark. 20 week average is broken down. Fibo 161 is almost at the same level as the 50 week average, which might hold the trend if we are lucky. Considering the pattern between Jan 2nd 2022 and Jan 2nd 2024 as a cup and handle, seems like we have reached its target level as well. One other option is the Elliott wave. If so, there might be a 5th leg, not sure if it will be higher though. Time will tell. However, the monthly chart is not looking bright either. Being cautious is a good idea.
The Golden Age 7000 EOY SPXThe Golden Age (year) is here!
Have cash ready for May in April. Be heavy hedges going in to 26.
We're going to juice earnings with all the investments pouring in for just about every single industry. Once the injection is complete, we will reset while all the invested money completes projects.
GL!
Better Buy Bitcoin
Strangle options $SPX target +/- 300 points RSI weakness is quite notable . Friday volume raise and large red candle suggest more volatility into coming weeks . suggest wide swing +/- 300 points so SPX heading to 5700 or 6300 . My idea is to watch Monday close then enter the strangle options combo .
spx yükseliş ihtimali yüksek satmayın !!!Many people interpreted this as a sell signal due to the sudden drop, but this is not a sell signal, it is an increase in voltitre. You can also see it on VIX and it is within expectations, the risk will be incredibly high, but what I will do is to add gradually (in large amounts).
It is not investment advice.
SPX Shorts on Retracement SPX appears to be in a downtrend.
If we are, then the optimal trades should be shorting the 76 retracements.
One fiilling now.
Shorts here.
$SPX Fractal IdeaI've been watching this 2023 fractal play out very similarly since Summer '24.
It would mean a drop around 5,500 by late March/early April before continuation of the uptrend into late 2025.
S&P 500: Short-Term Rebound Before a Deeper Drop?Expecting a rebound for the SP500 from current levels until mid-March (around the 13th). We anticipate a strong sell-off after that, lasting until late March or early April, potentially bottoming between $5,100 and $5,400. Afterward, a massive bottom followed by a strong upward move for both the S&P 500 and the broader U.S. stock market, including crypto.
SPX path from here 12/6/2024Refer to the chart for two potential scenarios in the SPX:
Bullish Scenario: A break and sustained hold above 6100 could confirm an upward move.
Bearish Scenario: The current level may act as resistance, leading to a gap fill at 6050, followed by a retest, offering a strong shorting opportunity targeting 5750-5850.
SPXRetested previously filled pre-election gap and now reclaiming January's low as support.
Unfilled gap near first quarter of yearly range and another unfilled at highs.
Simply want to see it hold this level.
Zelenskyy deal soon?
SPX and PCE. So when is it time to short?The crowd is betting on a drop at the worst possible time. The blue line represents the SPX, the red line represents the put buys. Will the price bounce off the 200-day moving average or are we headed lower? We'll find out in this week's data dump.
Stay calm.
S&P500 breakdown indicates new downtrend? S&P's price get to the level of 5869 which could have been a good buy option (looking at the trandline)
(it's also middle of fvg created in November)
However price after short pullback, rejected and went through trendline.
It might indicate strong pressure from sellers and new down trend.
For now waiting for confirmation on next candles, possible entry point for sell: around 5890.
SPX BOUNCETop is in unless a new ATH, this is the start of a longer leg down. We had a great close over the 50% fib the last few days so i am ready for a bounce to reload shorts. It s tight stop, if we fail to hold above the 50% of this current move around 6030-6050 then the move is over and the leg down will continue. Also we could just take out this current low and go for 5800.
$SPX $SPY We are at the 200 Day Moving Average
We are right at the 200 day moving average - a major level. I think we see a small bounce here. The weekly 35EMA is here too and the two together can be a force.
$SPX is the Sky Falling? Not just yet, if at all. while it looks gloomy, lets consider the precedent established in the past few weeks. Between 5700 and 5860 we have 2 volume shelves, where we've seen an increase in buying volume. Couple this with the converging anchored VWAPs and a 150 Daily Moving average hovering there, I think we have a good basis to at least pause in the "sky is falling" narrative. It could very well be falling but its not confirmed. This level is key, IMO.
$SPX - Top of the MountainSPX is once again, since its uptrend began on 11/06/2023, breaking below the 3-month simple moving average and now also the Monthly Heiken Ashi average (black stepped line).
This time, it seems to have the conditions to start its descent from the mountain and confirm that we reached the top on 02/18/2025.
Looking at the vast majority of stocks in today’s pre-market, this appears to be the scenario.
And this impacts my recent positions. In this scenario, it will seek the 1-year simple moving average, where it should make a pullback (HH or LH?).
Time for caution and to avoid new long entries.
What does SPX wants?So, I wanted to try something new.
Let's take a look at the SPX chart.
I plotted pitchfork by taking the median line as the starting high of February 2020,
and setting the bottom at the downside and the ATH in January 2022.
And I discovered a newly published indicator Whalemap .
it tracks seller and buyer activity through order analysis.
In December at the 0.756 level of this pitchfork,
Whalemap printed weekly sell-signal.
However, for this trading instrument (SPX i mean)
it seems to be somewhat ahead of the curve.
Okay, if price is still inside this huge channel, let's assume that with
the selling pressure it won't be able to break out of the channel.
A new ATH may well be formed without leaving pitchfork channel.
If degree of the rise doesn't change, it may well reach ~5050 points
before SPX begins a correction.
Additionally, I left my favorite VFI_LF
which indicates a two-year divergence
of volume flow.
This can't help but end in a strong correction.
Which Sector Will Bounce off of the S&P 500 200 DMA I'm inclined to believe that we are going to see a rotation into value, if we base and support off of the 200 DMA.
Will Trump’s Tariff Wars Bring the S&P’s Uptrend to an End?Donald Trump’s latest round of tariffs has rattled global markets, reviving memories of the trade wars that defined his first term. With China, Canada, and Mexico retaliating in kind, the fear of an escalating economic conflict has sent stocks tumbling. But will this shake-up be enough to break the S&P 500’s long-term uptrend?
Trump’s New Tariff Wars
The sweeping trade measures target the US’s largest trade partners, imposing a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports, along with an additional 10% levy on Chinese goods. The White House has framed these moves as a response to fentanyl trafficking and border security concerns, but markets are treating them as a renewed assault on global trade.
China wasted no time in hitting back, slapping tariffs on US agricultural products and restricting exports of key biotech equipment. Canada, too, announced retaliatory measures, targeting $30 billion worth of US goods. The fallout was immediate—Wall Street suffered a sharp selloff, with the S&P 500 closing nearly 2% lower and the Nasdaq shedding 2.6%. Futures suggest European stocks will follow suit, while currency markets have seen a dip in the US dollar.
Is the S&P’s Uptrend Cracking?
The S&P 500’s relentless 2024 uptrend has struggled to extend into 2025. The index has now failed twice to break above the December highs, breaking last year’s pattern of higher swing highs. Instead, price action has settled into a range, with resistance forming at the December, January, and February swing highs, while support sits near the January lows—right at the bottom of the early-November election gap.
For swing traders, the key question is whether a bullish reversal will emerge at the lower end of this range. A strong bounce here could reinforce the current consolidation phase rather than signal a breakdown. Momentum traders, however, will be watching for a decisive break below the range, which could trigger panic selling and accelerate downside momentum.
From a long-term perspective, a single shakeout isn’t enough to derail a multi-year bull market. Even a break below the 200-day moving average—while significant for shorter-term trend followers—is unlikely to change the broader outlook for long-term investors. Trends of this magnitude take time and substantial effort to reverse.
S&P 500 Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
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Hedged & Waiting - Let The Market Pick A SideHedged and Waiting – Let the Market Pick a Side | SPX Market Analysis 04 Mar 2025
The week starts with a bang—Trump, tweets, and political uncertainty, and markets bouncing like a hyperactive yo-yo.
With bullish and bearish triggers already firing, we’re in a "could go either way" situation. Price is lingering at the range low on the daily chart, leaving us with two clear possibilities—a range reversal targeting the highs or a breakout move lower.
With major political talks and red flag news this week, volatility could be off the charts.
I’m hedged, prepared, and waiting. Whether the market pumps or dumps, I’m simply waiting for the next move to commit—because patience, as always, is the name of the game.
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Deeper Dive Analysis:
The market opens with uncertainty at its peak—Trump’s latest comments, political negotiations, and key economic data are all on deck this week, creating wild swings.
📌 Market Structure – A Classic "Could Go Either Way" Setup
Bullish & Bearish triggers have fired, but price remains stuck
The daily chart shows price hesitating at the range low
Two possible scenarios using my 6 money-making patterns:
Range Reversal: Price rebounds to target the range high
Range Breakout: Price collapses and follows a measured breakout move
📌 What’s Driving the Uncertainty?
Political talks in focus – decisions this week could shake the markets
Start-of-the-month red flag news – payroll reports, inflation data, and more
General market indecision – traders waiting for a confirmed direction
📌 How I’m Approaching It – No Need to Predict, Just React
I’m already hedged, meaning a move in either direction is fine
Patience is key—waiting for price to confirm its move
Letting the market decide—no need to force trades in choppy conditions
This is one of those weeks where traders who chase moves will get whiplash, while those who stick to their system will come out ahead.
The plan? Let the market "git goin’" before committing capital.
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Fun Fact
📢 Did you know? In 2016, one of Trump’s tweets about Boeing sent the stock tumbling over 1% in minutes, wiping out $1 billion in market value—all over a comment about Air Force One being "too expensive."
💡 The Lesson? A single headline or tweet can move markets, but traders who follow their system instead of knee-jerk reactions are the ones who win in the long run.
Double Top on S&P Futures!? Hi Traders!
The daily chart is flashing warning signs! 🚨 A double top has formed, and if the price consolidates below the 5850 support level, the main stock index could dive into a correction toward 5400. 📉🔥
#SP500 #StockMarket #Trading
