US500 trade ideas
2 Important levelsThese are 2 important levels
It can drop to the bottom green line and could rise again to the upper line.
S&P 500: Key Levels to Watch as Election NearsWith the U.S. election right around the corner, the markets are primed for a week of intense action. As traders settle in for what could be a wild ride, we're zeroing in on the S&P 500’s most important support and resistance zones.
Anticipated Surge in Volatility and Volume
As election day arrives, expect a surge in both volatility and volume, especially in bonds and currency markets. Last Thursday’s market sell-off set the tone, with heightened swings likely to spill over from futures into the open markets by mid-week.
Adding fuel to the fire, the Federal Reserve’s decision on Thursday could be another volatility catalyst, particularly if the central bank makes a surprise move on rates. Right now, option data on the S&P 500 suggests that the market is bracing for a potential swing of over 2%, indicating expectations of a lively week.
Whilst volatility is the life blood of short-term trading, only the prepared are likely to benefit as wild swings tend to spark panic among those without a plan. With this in mind, let’s take a look at the key levels to watch on the S&P 500…
Key Levels to Watch on the S&P 500
On the technical front, the S&P 500’s long-term uptrend has taken a breather, and last Thursday’s drop brought the index back to a critical area: the 50-day moving average (MA). This level, which aligns with the July swing highs, has held up well so far, and it’s a key line of support that many traders are eyeing as we move into the election. If this support gives way, the next stop is the September lows near the 200-day moving average—a level that often serves as a guardrail for the broader trend.
For resistance, we’re watching the top of Thursday’s gap as the first challenge for any bounce attempt. Above that, the trend highs present another barrier, where the bulls will need solid momentum to push through. These levels provide a solid framework to navigate the week ahead, where a breakout or breakdown will likely signal a directional shift in the broader market sentiment.
S&P 500 Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Using Anchored VWAP to Gauge Market Control
When it comes to analysing who’s in control of the market—bulls or bears—anchored VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) is one of our go-to tools. Here’s how we use it: by anchoring a VWAP to the recent highs, we get a read on where sellers are likely to assert pressure. This essentially serves as a ceiling, marking where bearish momentum could reassert itself. On the flip side, anchoring VWAP to recent lows shows us where the buyers are holding their ground, creating a critical support point.
These anchored VWAP levels act as dynamic markers of control, giving us a pulse on the ongoing battle between bulls and bears. In a week like this, with election headlines swirling and technical levels tested, VWAP is an invaluable tool to track whether buyers or sellers have the upper hand at any given moment.
S&P 500 Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
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S&P500 / Bearish Pressure Builds: Key Support Levels in FocusTechnical Analysis
The price will likely attempt a retest around 5,761 or 5,781, after which a renewed bearish trend could push it toward 5,675 and 5,643.
Bearish Scenario: Consistent stability below 5,781 may lead to a downward move targeting 5,732. A 1-hour or 4-hour candle close below 5,732 could activate the next bearish zone.
Bullish Scenario: Should the price stabilize above 5,746, some bullish momentum may emerge toward 5,781. However, a reversal with stability above 5,803 would signal potential movement upwards, with targets at 5,824 and 5,850.
Further Bearish Continuation: For a deeper decline, the price should establish stability below 5,715, paving the way for a drop toward 5,675.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5748
Resistance Levels: 5781, 5803, 5824
Support Levels: 5709, 5675, 5643
Can you envision S&P500 at 20k? This is why most investors fail!If you follow us through all those years then you know how fond we are of long-term patterns. Especially those of a multi-year perspective that can offer maximum reliability and as close to a flowless projection as it can get.
The current chart (1M time-frame) on the S&P500 index (SPX) is no exception and you might be no strangers to it as we've published it on April 10 2024 (see chart below) when the price was still at 5200 (against 5700 now):
That was at a time of high market uncertainty after a strong start to the year and as we were entering the bearish seasonality of Summer. This rise however should come as no surprise to those that can read charts and market behavior objectively. As we mentioned at the time, this is a long-term perspective that gives you the picture unfiltered with the facts only.
What you see on this chart is S&P's Cycle Analysis on a century wide scale from the rally in 1921 that led to the Great Depression. Since that 'mother of all recessions', the stock market started to create a pattern of clear systemic behaviors. Each time there are fundamentals involved that merely serve as 'reasons/ excuses' to fill out and complete this pattern.
** Great Depression: 1st Bull Cycle **
Following the 1932 Great Depression bottom, the 1st Secular Bull Cycle begun, that lasted for 28.5 years (343 months) rising by +1888%. Then the Secular Bear Cycle started in the form of a Megaphone pattern. Its 1st Low was formed below the 1M MA100 (green trend-line) and the 2nd Low (the Cycle's bottom) was formed below the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line).
** Vietnam War to High Inflation: 2nd Bull Cycle **
The 2nd Secular Bull Cycle lasted for almost 26 years (311 months) and saw +2361% growth. As per our blueprint, the Secular Bear Cycle was initiated once the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) broke. Again the 1st Low was formed below the 1M MA100 and the 2nd Low below the 1M MA200.
** Post 2008 Housing Crisis: 3rd Bull Cycle **
With regards to the current Cycle, which is what most are interested at naturally, notice how the 1M MA50 has been supporting since late 2011. It emphatically held both on the September 2022 Low (Inflation crisis bottom) and the March 2020 Low (COVID crash bottom). This indicates again that as long as it supports, the Secular Bull Cycle will be extended.
Based on the previous Cycle-to-Cycle parameters the model suggests that the current Cycle should be a little than 23 years long (279 months, i.e. 32 month shorter than the previous) and rise by +2834% (+473% higher than the previous).
That gives us a rough target for the S&P500 of around 20000 estimated to take place by 2032!
** New updates: Price and Time Fibonacci levels **
What we've added on the current updated analysis relative to the on in April 2024, are the Fibonacci levels both on the x (time) and y (price) axis.
As you can see, the S&P is currently exactly on the 0.618 Fib price axis and between the 0.618 - 0.786 Fib time axis. That is a highly symmetric correlation with roughly the year 1992, right at the start of the Dotcom Bubble that led to the 2000 burst and subsequent crisis. The index was again on the 0.618 Fib price axis and within the 0.618 - 0.786 Fib time axis.
** Is A.I. the new Dotcom? **
It was the Internet Mania that accelerated the 1974 - 2000 Bull Cycle to its peak and this time it may be the A.I./ Blockchain/ Crypto etc Mania that may aggressively lead the current (2009 - 2032) Bull Cycle to the next Great Recession. Note that just like the Internet didn't go away because of a mere act of amazing greed (the Dotcom Bubble) but instead served as the backbone of the Age of Information and a new Economy (e-commerce, social media, digital investing etc), the A.I. Bubble that has started fueling the market since 2023 shouldn't be demonized when it pops and in our opinion won't go away but instead serve as the backbone of the next Age of Reality and Commerce (metaverse, augmented reality, robotics, artificial intelligence, electric vehicles etc).
It has to be said, that the current Bull Cycle is much more similar to the 1974 - 2000 one than the 1932 - 1965, which understandable as neither banking or trading was that evolved or matured as it got with the financial engineering of the 80s and beyond.
** Conclusion **
In any case and as we are concluding this publications, all the above projections based on this 'Cyclical blueprint' may be speculation theoretically but trends that keep repeating themselves over the decades are not. Technically those patterns filter out all news, fundamentals, geopolitical, macroeconomical noise and give rise to a pure behavioral perspective, the essence of traditional Economics.
So based on that model, are you also expecting to see 20000 in 8 years time?
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SPX500 H1 | Overlap resistance at 38.2% Fibonacci retracementSPX500 is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 5,769.26 which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 5,804.00 which is a level that sits above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement and an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 5,727.17 which is a swing-low support.
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SPX500 Long D1Buy Stop Entry @ 5648.70
S/L @ 5097.10
T/P1 @ 6202.80
T/P2 @ ---------
R.R.R. @ 1/1
Pure Price Action analysis based on Breakout of target level.
SPX: Presidential elections and FOMCThe US stocks had a relatively mixed week. The S&P 500 started the week with the negative sentiment, around the level of 5.840, and moved in Thursday trading session to the lowest weekly level at 5.705. Still, during Friday the index managed to gain some 0,4%, ending the week at the level of 5.728. The Non-farm payrolls were the major surprise for the markets during the previous week. The US economy added only 12.000 new jobs in October, which was the lowest level since the pandemic. Analysts are noting that such a weak performance is a result of hurricanes and labor strikes, and that the labor market in the US stands on solid grounds.
Amazon was one of the companies which was in the spotlight of investors, with a weekly gain of 6,2%, as the company continues to strengthen its cloud and advertising business above market current expectations. Intel was another company which strongly outperformed market forecasts, gaining 7,8% for the week. Regardless of a bumpy start of November, this might continue for the week ahead. Namely, two quite important events for the US are scheduled for the week ahead - on November 5th the US Presidential elections and FOMC rate decision on November 7th. These two events are implying that higher volatility and market nervousness might continue for another week.
SPX500USD Will Go Down! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for SPX500USD.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 5,736.0.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 5,643.6 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Election Volatility Shakes Up US MarketsS&P 500
● The index retreated from its all-time high of 5,880, initiating a downward trend.
● A breakdown below the Rising Wedge pattern has been confirmed.
● Key support levels to watch:
➖ Immediate support: 5,670
➖ Strong support: 5,400
Nasdaq Composite
● The index has hit an all-time high near the 18,750 level before beginning to retreat.
● After breaking through the trendline support, the index is currently hovering slightly above the next immediate support level.
● If it dips below this support, we could see a significant drop, potentially driving the index down to the 16,670 level.
**This market volatility is consistent with historical trends during US presidential election years. The 2024 election is particularly unpredictable due to conflicting economic indicators and potential delays in results.
3 peaks reversal #spx #au $spx $auHad to switch to NYSE:AU for my #gold stock vs the stock market ratio chart because NYSE:NEM bad quarter skewed the chart too much.
For your viewing pleasure and to come up with your own ideas.
Is this a beautiful {three peaks} top?
Is this a possible 1976 moment? Or a 2000 one?
Elliot wave, Banner cycle, Market psychology, SPXThe sell of just start , this week (remember )we will see last push up, and that will be the final move... After 5 august , and 17 of october, just my trading view...
US500 (S&P): Trend in 4H time framePlease pay special attention to the very accurate trends, and colored levels.
Its a very sensitive setup, please be careful.
BEST,
MT
Market SnapshotIn every financial crisis in the past the professional market analysts (i.e. talking heads and article writers) from the major firms waited too late to tell you the house was on fire..and they always said things are better than they were
Do you know why that is?
Its because they have to protect AUM (Assets Under Management) at ALL COSTS...even at the costs of your investments
The last thing they EVER want you to do is SELL
Plan accordingly people
US500 morning analysisTechnical analysis of US500.
The key support in this analysis is 5088.9, the 5 August 2024 low.
For the median (red) line of the pitchfork to be tagged, wave ((5)) will need to be expanded; therefore, price would now be in wave (2) of ((5)), with fib support, pitchfork support, and potential buying area in the 5300-5500 range.
The bearish case would have the top being in, and if this occurs, pitchfork support then price support will fall in an impulsive manner, with bearish targets below October 2022 low.
Correction down for SPX500USD is almost finishedHi traders,
Last week SPX500USD dropped and slowly went up again.
I think next week we could see the finish of the complex correction down (wave 4) and the last leg up to finish wave 5.
Trade idea: Wait for the complex correction down to finish and after a change in orderflow to bullish and a correction down on a lower timeframe you could trade (short term) longs.
If you want to learn more about wave analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a like and respectful comment.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. I do not provide signals.
Don't be emotional, just trade!
Eduwave
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Nov 1, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During the current trading session, the S&P 500 index exhibited considerable weakness by completing the Inner Index Dip at 5733, in conjunction with the Mean Support level of 5798, while leaving the gap by not reaching the secondary Mean Support level of 5700. This development of fulfilling the gap will likely stimulate a significant rebound toward the Mean Resistance level of 5775, with the possibility of further extension. The 5700 support level is critical for facilitating a primary recovery and advancing into the subsequent phase of the bullish trend. However, it is imperative to acknowledge that achieving and penetrating the 5700 level could instigate a downward spiral in price action to Mean Sup 5620.
Stock Market CrashGann 144 Bars from 2019 low to 2020 top before crash.
Gann 576 Bars from 2020 low to 2024 top before crash.
GAME OVER!!!...ASCENDING WEDGE BROKEN DOWN!!...TIME TO GO!!!The pattern is similar for QQQ and SOX. Market is very vulnerable now. Optimism professional and retail is at all time high now. We may not even need a catalyst. ITS OVER!!!
Very soon we may be at the neckline. Major indexes may be forming a giant Head and Shoulders reversal pattern (it is clearer on QQQ and SOX, or MSFT because they are weaker). We may now have just started the right shoulder.
Disclaimer: Don't trade based on this message. I may be completely wrong.
SP500 Double gap analysis ideaWe can see that there are 2 gaps in the SP500, both are at similar distances, which one will close first?
Always do your own research
Final waveThe price has hit the bottom of two ascending channels yesterday. Perhaps the last wave has just begun. I'm not stating that it will reach 6000, but If the price stays inside the blue channel, it can potentially reach 6000 by November 20. If the price drops out of any of the channels, it will be a strong bearish reversal signal.
CorrectionThe price has just broke out of the channel. If it's not a fake break out, I expect to see some correction this week. Perhaps it will be insignificant like the previous one at the beginning of the month.
Stock Market ft. The BIG SHORT.Election coming, looks to be priced in as we speak, expect a drop, probably more severe than my chart if the conditions are met BELOW..
Conservative levels to short above (no guarantee we are coming back to those levels) as the futures market can continue to plummet as early as Monday next week.
I expect a heavy forecast of rain up until the election and after, we are about to see some crazy $%^& in the next few months,
Price is weighted on the weekly, to Target 1, if that level doesn't hold we will see target 2 and target 3 QUICK,
If my price reacts the way I think it is, I will be dropping a multi-year monthly chart to follow,
Good luck traders.
