SP500 - SHORT - 3HRsThis technical analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Remember to always research and consult with a professional before making investment decisions. Good luck! 📈💼🚀
US500 trade ideas
S&P 500 key levels to watch
The S&P 500 has bounced off its earlier lows in the last couple of hours, after dipping to take out liquidity below Friday's low (6011) and key support around 6000. Where do we go from here?
On Friday, the index tumbled sharply to close near the lows. Whether that marked a near-term market top remains to be seen. A downside follow-through would attract selling activity, but the long-term trend remains bullish. The short-term trend line has been broken, which could be a bearish reversal signal, as too could be the bearish engulfing weekly candle.
Given how strong the markets have been in recent months, a correction might be welcomed even by bullish investors as it could create better buying opportunities.
On the daily chart, the key level to watch is 6000—a psychologically significant level. This level has acted as both resistance and support multiple times. A daily close below this level could potentially lead to a decline towards the lower end of the recent range circa 5830, with interim downside target being at 5908. Below that, the 200-day moving average may come into focus if selling pressure continues.
Resistance is seen at 6033 and then 6075, levels that were formerly either support or resistance.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
Escalator Up, Elevator Down -- We Are Overdue For A PullbackI've been waiting for this pullback for weeks/months. The DOJ civil suit against UNH last week 2/21 felt like the first domino.
Major pullback from AprilAs of now, the S&P 500 stands at a notable 6,013.12. Recent technical analysis suggests potential exhaustion in the market. Key indicators to watch include the moving averages—if the shorter-term average crosses below the longer-term average, we may see a "death cross," signaling a bearish trend.
Reflecting on past experiences, on February 3, 2020, the S&P 500 peaked at 3,376 before dropping to 2,439 by early April 2020—a significant decline of about 27.8%. The market then almost doubled, reaching 4,796 on December 1, 2021. However, it dropped again to 3,517 by October 2022, a decline of approximately 26.7%. Since then, the market has nearly doubled again, bringing us to today's high levels.
My thesis is that we will see a pullback soon, perhaps from April of ~20%!!
S&P INTRADAY oversold bounce back? S&P (US500) index pair price action sentiment appears bullish, supported by the longer-term prevailing uptrend. The recent intraday price action appears to be a sideways consolidation after a retest of an all-time high on 19th Feb ‘25.
The key trading level is at the 6007 level, the consolidation price range and also the previous resistance is now a newly formed support zone. A corrective pullback from the current levels and a bullish bounce back from the 6007 level could target the upside resistance at 6057 followed by the 6106 and 6146 levels over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed loss of the 6007 support and a daily close below that level would negate the bullish outlook opening the way for a further retracement and a retest of 5980 support level followed by 5967 and 5918.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
S&P500 -Weekly forecast, Technical Analysis & Trading IdeasMidterm forecast:
5677.80 is a major support, while this level is not broken, the Midterm wave will be uptrend.
Technical analysis:
There is a divergence in RSI and price between the peak at 6107.47 on 2024-12-06 and the peak at 6150.07 on 2025-02-19, the probability of uptrend continuation is decreased and the probability of beginning of downtrend is increased.
While the RSI downtrend #1 is not broken, bearish wave in price would continue.
A peak is formed in daily chart at 6150.05 on 02/19/2025, so more losses to support(s) 6031.27, 5875.31, 5777.28 and minimum to Major Support (5677.80) is expected.
Relative strength index (RSI) is 49.
Supports and Resistances:
5568.78
5398.95
5194.10
5039.36
4944.41
4843.23
4662.99
4544.26
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Have a successful week,
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$SPX Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Feb 24
Ok. So that 50 Day moving average needs to hold, lol, otherwise next support is around 5930.
Watch that 35EMA for a cross down under the 30min 200MA right at the top left corner of the trading range.
Don’t forget to grab the chart and let’s go….
SPX Finally Moves, Will 6000 Hold?SPX Finally Moves – But Will 6000 Hold? | SPX Market Analysis 24 Feb 2025
Last week’s market action was like watching a cat decide whether to jump off a shelf—hesitation, commitment, regret, and then chaos.
SPX pushed through the bull trigger on Wednesday, only to whip back through the hedge & bear trigger, finally showing some real movement on Friday. But before we get too excited, SPX is still stuck inside a larger range, with 6000 as the next key battleground.
Will we see a range breakout or another rejection?
Let’s dive in.
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Deeper Dive Analysis:
SPX Moves – But Is It Just Another Range Play?
Last week gave us plenty of action, but SPX hasn’t truly escaped its larger range yet.
📌 What happened last week?
SPX broke the bull trigger on Wednesday 🚀
Immediately flipped back through the hedge & bear trigger 🤦♂️
Friday’s move finally opened things up 🔓
Now, we’re eying 6000 as the next decision point.
📌 Two potential setups:
✅ Range Reversal – Price rejects 6000 and moves back inside the range
✅ Breakout Trade – SPX clears 6000, confirming a new leg up
Either way, I’ll be watching closely for the next trade setup.
VIX Says ‘No Crash… Yet’
📉 The volatility index (VIX) remains below 20, meaning:
No imminent crash signals 🛑
Fear is elevated but not panicking
Still room for surprises, but not full-blown chaos (yet!)
If VIX jumps past 20 and keeps climbing, then we’ll talk about more extreme downside risk.
Overnight Futures – A Small Bounce, But No Turn Yet
🌅 Futures are slightly green, but they don’t confirm:
A major bullish turn ❌
A full-blown breakdown ❌
Right now, it’s more noise than signal.
What’s Next?
📌 I remain bearish on my income swing trades 📉
📌 Waiting for confirmation—either:
Bullish reversal (v-shaped price action shift) 🔄
Bearish breakdown (clean range break below 6000) 🚨
For now, it’s another waiting game—but one that could pay off big when the next major move arrives.
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Fun Fact
📢 Did you know? In 2010, the Flash Crash wiped out nearly $1 trillion in market value in just 36 minutes, only to recover almost entirely by the end of the day. The culprit? A single trader’s algorithm running wild.
💡 The Lesson? Sometimes, market chaos isn’t about fundamentals—it’s just a rogue algorithm losing its mind.
SPX at CrossRoadThe chart illustrates the logarithmic scale of the S&P 500 index since 1933. From 1933 to 1997, the index consistently followed an upward-sloping channel. Key years such as 1942, 1949, 1974, and 1982 saw the index test the lower boundary of this channel. However, since 2009, following the introduction of quantitative easing (QE), the uptrend has shifted to a steeper slope.
With the Federal Reserve hesitant to lower interest rates and the forces of de-globalization gaining momentum, the question arises: Can artificial intelligence (AI) emerge as the savior, propelling the S&P 500 to new highs? Or will the growing debt burden, combined with tighter monetary policies and the effects of de-globalization, finally break the index's back?
What are your thoughts? Please share.
I believe interest rates will continue to climb as investors demand higher premiums to compensate for heightened risks in the debt market. This could exert considerable pressure on stocks.
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): LONG to 100% Fibo lvl 6214.4.Colleagues, I believe that the upward movement is not over yet and the lower and middle order wave “3” is not yet complete. This is a good chance to go long, but it should be remembered that even though a correction to the uptrend line is possible, I do not recommend selling.
The target area is the 6214.4 level area - this is slightly higher than the 100% Fibonacci extension level.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
$SPY $SPX OLD CHART BAR PATTERN COVID CRASH NOW!!!!Holy crap.... I just came across an old chart and literally in the nick of timeI tell you. All I'm going to say is... I'm a pattern chart trader and this is the COVID bar pattern attached to our daily from like a year ago almost and I loaded up an old layout to do work and boom... here we are... Good LUCK ... Not sure what the trigger will be but we are here.
$S&P500 macro analysis , market approaching correction °•° $SPXHi 👋🏻 check out my previous analysis ⏰ on SP:SPX macro bullish analysis ⏰
As provided it went up up 🚀 completed my target's 🎯 💯💪🏻 ✅ ✔️
Click on it 👆🏻 just check out each and every time updates ☝🏻 ☺️
•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
NOW I was completely 🐻 BEARISH on the market with in upcoming months SP:SPX
📌 Expecting liquidation pump $6500 - $6700
Invalid 🛑 when complete month close above $6700
¹support - $5500 ( 🎯 ¹ )
²support - $5130 ( 🎯 ² )
🎯 3 ... Will be updated based on market conditions by that time ☺️
📍 A wise 🦉 man said - always having patience " is " always gaining only /-
NASDAQ:TSLA ( i accumulate slowly until it cross above $400 )
rest of stocks i will follow index ☝🏻 i will invest based on market conditions ..... ✔️
SPX Setting Up the BounceFriday was an extremely bearish day for the market. It slid the entire day, even closing practically at the low for the day. It could be easy to surmise that we could be in for a deep retracement but this is doubtful seeing the price moves preceding this sharp drop, its rather clear we seem to be riding an expanded or running flat wave. The usual expected target for wave C of this particular type of flats roams from everywhere from 61.8 % of the advance of wave A to 127% of wave A and even further, sometimes even reaching past 200% of the distance traveled by wave A.
The key point to touch on is the unfilled gap that is present right around the level of the projection of 127% of wave A. Having this point playing in conjunction makes me lean towards expecting a deeper rather than shallow retracement.
Once we have reached the specified level, and likely going to fill the entirety of the gap, we can start to hunt for a bullish catalyst, since we should see further buying pressure and move into all time high territory.
AlgoTrade | SPX500(1D) LarryConors HolyGrail: Trade #2 LongHi Friends
I'm longed SPX500 on the 10th of Feb at the open price because market is showing me an oversell signal.
Will continue to monitor the market for a overbought signal before selling.
There's no stop loss set for the trade.
SPX 500 - up and down movement within a daily range,Hello traders, please feel free to share your trading ideas, and please give a Boost if you agree with my trading plan. My trading strategy is Price Action, which is the simplest strategy of trading on the price movement. A key part of my discipline is Stop Loss set when opening a trading position, which ensures every trading is risk managed. My 1 to 1 trading training is available, please message. Trade well and good luck!
SPX500 Setting Up for a Deeper Pullback?SPX500 could be gearing up for a bigger retracement than its cousin NAS100. After a strong bearish close last week, price action suggests it's targeting the lows. With upward trendlines under pressure, we may see continued breaks to the downside. Is this just a dip or the start of something bigger? Stay alert!
#TradFi is even more scary#Crypto looks scary, but #TradFi is even more scary😨
CRYPTOCAP:BTC holds strong compare to the DJI NDX & SPX with their Double Tops. Nothing much to say on Crypto as we need to wait until Monday and see how this picture develops - Indexes really like to V-shape brutal recovery, so just waiting😐
P.S It's not much the Bybit Hack which caused all this red rather the stock market. Btw so much panic happened around 1/1 backed and now regulated exchange - stay calm your funds are safe.
2025 - 2026 Roadmap2025:
- Cut Gov Spending
- (Lower GPD)
- Cut Gov Temp Workers
- (Lower Employment)
- Deport Service Workers
- (Increasing inflation)
- Tarif's
- (One time inflation event)
Cutting government spending should
cause a recession.
Note march 2025 : Drop and Bounce from seasonality.
2026:
- '2020 Fed Carry' removed
- Call of 5 yr 1.5% loans.
- Called loans result in equity sell off.
- Treasury funds gov with 30 year
- Incentive to lower rates first.
The government plans to switch from using 2-year bonds to 30-year bonds to fund itself by the end of 2025 or early 2026, under an agreement between the Treasury and the Fed. The downside? With 30-year bonds, they'll be stuck paying today's high 5% interest rate for three decades.
Lowering the rate first would be better and save money, which is possible if a recession happens before the switch.
To help, the Fed agreed to leave and make room in the 30-year bond market.
SPX: another not-happy FridayMarkets have been playing a bit of a ping-pong game since the start of the year. Uncertainty is never a good world for financial markets, so it was this Friday. In the same week, the S&P 500 reached a fresh, new all time highest level at 6.148 and a significant pull-back on Friday. One of the extremely spooky works since recently are tariffs, which a new US Administration is using too frequently, for the taste of investors. The S&P 500 lost 1,71% at Friday's trading session, while other US indices were also somewhere in this range. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment was published during the week, showing not some happy figures about current consumer sentiment. In addition, consumers are expecting further increase in inflation, higher from previous releases. The 5 years inflation expectations currently stands at 3,5%, for which analysts are noting, is the highest level since 1995.
The highest contributors to index drop on Friday were tech companies, which are currently ones which hold the highest participation. Other sectors were also affected, however, those related to major supplies were the ones that gained during the week. The consumer sector, healthcare and utilities were the ones that investors bought the most. It was sort of a move toward basics. As analysts are noting, the defensive sectors are the ones which gain during times of fears on future economic growth.
The week ahead will be a sensitive one for financial markets, as PCE data are scheduled for a release. The start of the week might bring some relaxation from Friday's negative sentiment, however, it will not be a sign that the positive sentiment is back, but only a sort of short term positioning for PCE data. Depending on final PCE data, a higher move could be expected toward either side. The higher market sensitivity will continue as long as uncertainties are existing either through trade tariffs, or through inflation data.
$SPX Recap of Last Week Feb 18-21
Last week we started the week with a run to make new ATH’s and then a drop back down to the 50DMA.
New ATH’s on Wednesday and then a gap down Thursday. Watch that red signal line Thursday going into Friday - clear resistance (at the red arrows)
We saw resistance at the 35EMA and the red signal line and we dropped all the wan down to the 50DMA.
Friday was intense, I did take a red day on Friday but still had a good week overall.
S&P 500's Big Drop Raises Alarm: Is a Market Correction Looming?◉ Fundamental Rationale:
● US stocks fell sharply on Friday, with major indices like the S&P 500 SP:SPX and Dow Jones Industrial Average TVC:DJI experiencing significant losses.
● The sell-off was triggered by a warning from Walmart NYSE:WMT , which raised concerns about weakening consumer demand, rising costs, or other challenges impacting its business. As a retail giant, Walmart's outlook is seen as a barometer for consumer health.
● The decline coincided with the release of consumer sentiment data, which dropped to a 15-month low, signalling growing pessimism among consumers about the economy.
● The market reacted to fears of inflation, rising interest rates, and the potential for a recession, which could further weigh on corporate earnings and economic growth.
● The sell-off was not limited to retail stocks but reflected broader anxieties about the economy and future market performance.
◉ Technical Observations:
● Following a significant sell-off of nearly 1.7%, the index is expected to find initial support at the trendline.
● If the index breaches this support level, the next strong support zone is anticipated in the range of 5,650 to 5,700.
S&P - WEEKLY SUMMARY 17.2-21.2 / FORECAST 📉 S&P500 – 6th week of the base cycle (average of 20 weeks). By Friday’s close, a triple top formed at the December 9 and January 29 extreme forecast levels, as expected last week.
👉 Strong-handed position traders with stops above the double-top level should have held their short position from January 24. The current futures price has not broken above it. The next pivot forecast is February 24. Based on timing, I cautiously assume that it may work as a correction of Friday’s movement, followed by a downward reversal from the extreme forecast on March 3.
⚠️ There is a high probability that this base cycle will be bearish, with a short rise and a steep drop below the opening. I anticipated this in early January. A bull market does not form a third peak within the first six weeks of the current base cycle. The market remains under the weight of two overextended long cycles, which I have written about extensively in past posts.
⚠️ The most interesting event is expected on the extreme forecast of March 3, coinciding with the start of the retrograde Venus period, which I mentioned in early December. The start of retrograde Venus usually triggers a market crash, while retrograde Mercury will add volatility starting March 17. However, I do not expect a correction of more than 20%, as a major crash is not likely before next year.
$SPX Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Feb 20
Not a terribly difficult trading range today.
ATH’s above us, 35EMA below, bottom of the implied move 6115 has a previous support.
Bearish divergence in strength. 30min 200MA on deck (maybe close to where it crosses the downtrend) if we close under the 35EMA.
Pretty bullish setup overall but overbought and bearish divergence. Low volume too which is driving me crazy but we don’t seem to get any sell off volume.
