Acorn's Smart Money S&P SignalJuly 2, 2025 - S&P broke to the upside confirming a bullish S&P signal. If correct, the bullish S&P indicator suggests the S&P will close above 6177.97 on July 17. Let’s see if the market can continue to the upside!
US500 trade ideas
SPXI've been waiting patiently for a real correction in everything, but my timing was drastically off. Looks like FOMO is still in charge. My guess, stock market to ATH after ATH for a while and a final wave of FOMO for crypto will enter the air.
I believe the majority are expecting a COVID-like rebound, followed by rally continuation, but the majority tends to be wrong.
What I can tell you is the true crypto bull run will not begin on optimism, as it has been...
It will begin on pessimism.
SPX : Next Stop @ 6800 :-)Since we are now expecting a delay in the FED cutting, there will be plenty of liquidity to spice things up.
The 'D' @ yellow had worked once before and since it has been 'used up' , its potency had been somewhat reduced.
But have no fear/worry, there would always be more 'D' ahead. The next one at 6,800
Good luck.
SHORT ON SPY (SPX/USD)SPY has a double top and is currently pulling back to a supply zone.
I expect spy to drop to the next demand level or FVG to the downside.
This is a sell limit order. Waiting for price to reach the supply area before taking the sell.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of July 3, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this abbreviated trading week, the S&P 500 Index has primarily shown an upward course, hitting and surpassing our target for the Outer Index Rally of 6235. Currently, the index demonstrates a consistent bullish trend, with the following objective for the Outer Index Rally set at 6420, followed by forthcoming targets of 6620 and 6768. Nevertheless, it is crucial to acknowledge the current price action may cause prices to retrace from their current fluctuation to test the Mean Support at 6200 before resuming their upward movement.
USA Economy Long-Term Outlook:The long-term outlook for the U.S. economy , as of mid-2025, is characterized by several key factors and some uncertainty, particularly around tariffs and monetary policy.
GDP Growth: The U.S. economy experienced a contraction in Q1 2025 (down 0.2-0.5% GDP), the first in three years, partly due to a surge in imports and a sharp cutback in consumer spending. Economists anticipate a bounce back in Q2 2025 (forecasted at 3% growth). However, the overall expectation for 2025 is for growth to decelerate significantly (e.g., Vanguard projects 1.5% GDP growth for year-end 2025, EY forecasts 1.5%, Trading Economics 1.7%, J.P. Morgan 2.1%). The second half of 2025 is expected to see a "pronounced demand cliff" due to front-loaded purchases ahead of anticipated trade restrictions.
Inflation: Tariffs are a significant factor impacting inflation. CPI growth is expected to average around 2.9% in 2025 and potentially accelerate to 3.2% in 2026, moderating to around 2.3% by 2029 (Deloitte). Core PCE inflation is expected to climb to the 2.8-3.0% range year-over-year in Q3 2025 - Q3 2026 as tariffs filter through the economy (University of Michigan). The Federal Reserve is closely watching tariff-induced price spikes.
Interest Rates/Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve is likely on hold with interest rates for now, but two more rate cuts are anticipated later in 2025 if the labor market remains stable (Vanguard). Some forecasts suggest the Fed will resume cutting rates in July 2025, reaching a terminal range of 3.25-3.5% by mid-2026 (University of Michigan). However, the uncertainty around tariffs and their impact on inflation could influence the Fed's decisions.
Labor Market: The labor market has been cooling but remains stable. The unemployment rate is expected to increase throughout 2025, potentially reaching 4.3% (Morningstar), 4.7% (Vanguard), or even 4.8% by year-end (EY). Job gains are predicted to decelerate significantly in the second half of 2025 due to tariffs.
Tariffs: Tariffs are a major source of uncertainty. While some recent de-escalation in trade policy with China has led to positive revisions in the outlook, the long-term impact of tariffs remains a concern, with potential to lower GDP growth, raise inflation, and weaken the labor market. The expectation is that tariffs will be at least modestly higher than at the start of 2025.
In essence, the long-term economic forecast for the USA suggests continued growth, but at a more moderate pace than recent years, with ongoing vigilance required for inflation and labor market dynamics, heavily influenced by evolving tariff policies.
SPX - short here to test pivot around 6,040hit key area on the backtest heading back down to 6k area
S&P 500 and the Elliott Wave TheoryAnalysis shows that the Wave 3(Black) correction is a Flat because Wave 2(Black) was a Zigzag. From the ending of Wave 3(Black), we see a shallow Wave A(Blue) forming. This is our first Wave of the 3 move correction. From A(Blue), another 3 wave move MUST occur and must go beyond the ending of Wave 3(Black) as seen. The correction of Wave A(Blue) is marked by an unfolding 3 wave move shown in Green. Waves A and B are formed after Wave A(Blue) completes. For the last 'leg' of the 3 Wave correction, we find a 5 Wave move shown in Red and this should contain all properties of a normal 5 wave move. Wave 1(Red) is followed by a Zigzag correction and we should expect a Flat correction at Wave 3(Red). Indeed a Flat is formed and is highlighted in Purple. Wave 4(Red) is complete. This sets in motion a last wave that upon completion would be the end of Wave C(Green) hence the end of Wave B(Blue) and would trigger the start of Wave 4(Black). Follow for breakdown of the same chart in the Daily time frame.
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SPX VS OILHello there.
30 years low cycle is coming to end for OIL and energy.
Every 30 years, market of energy bottom against SPX.
When buy SPX AND NAS ? Each 30 years.
1920->1950->1980->2010->2040
When Sell SPX AND NAS ? Each 25-30 years
19401->970-2000->2025-30->2055-60
Sell SPX WHEN atm ? Well.. follow the last uptrend (blackline), sell when break
Recession always come when Energy > SPX
So.. keep an Eyes on Energy.
US500 Eyes 6317 and 6510 After Historic BreakoutUS500 Eyes 6317 and 6510 After Historic Breakout
The US500 has broken out above its previous all-time high near 6147, following news of a ceasefire agreement between the U.S., Israel, and Iran.
Since then, equity markets have surged, with indices leading the rally.
US500 has now reached a fresh all-time high at 6220, confirmed by a strong weekly candle close above the former peak, adding technical value to the breakout.
Looking ahead, the US500 appears poised to extend its gains toward the 6317 and 6510 levels on the daily chart.
A stronger-than-expected Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report could further fuel this bullish momentum.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day
S&P500 key trading level at 6130Trade Tensions:
Trump has threatened higher tariffs on Japan, criticising its refusal to import U.S. rice.
The EU is open to a trade deal with the U.S. involving a 10% universal tariff on many exports, but seeks lower rates for key sectors like pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.
Markets:
U.S. equity futures are steady after the S&P 500 posted its best quarter since 2023.
Focus remains on trade developments and ongoing disputes in Washington over a major $3.3 trillion tax bill.
Canadian stocks are outperforming, led by gold miners, as investors seek safe-haven hedges amid tariff risks.
U.S. Tax Bill:
Republican leaders are struggling to secure votes.
A controversial AI regulation amendment was rejected.
Yale economists estimate the bill would cost the bottom 20% of earners $560/year, while the top 20% gain $6,055/year on average.
Corporate News:
Apple may use OpenAI or Anthropic’s AI to upgrade Siri, potentially sidelining its own AI models.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 6260
Resistance Level 2: 6310
Resistance Level 3: 6350
Support Level 1: 6130
Support Level 2: 6090
Support Level 3: 6055
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Possible "DIP" into Monday July 7 Tarrif DeadlineHello everyone,
Well we made it. ATH! Well all things must eventually dip. I see a good possibility into next Monday July 7 Tarif deadline plus we are hitting the ATH's prior tops trendline (Red Line)....
I highlight with colored boxes 3 different price targets I think it could dip to before resuming its march higher.
Let's see what happens!
SPX: new ATH, despite allEconomy, geopolitics, trade tariffs, inflation, Fed moves. It seems that the market got tired of all news during the previous period, and decided to take the optimistic side, despite all. The S&P 500 reached a fresh, new all-time highest level on Friday's trading session, at 6.185. With the latest move, the S&P 500 managed to erase all losses from April this year, when the index tumbled around 20% after the implementation of trade tariffs.
The weekly trade tariffs news brought a termination of talks between the U.S. and Canada. However, what moved the market the most was the news that the US Administration settled a deal on trade tariffs with China. Although details of the deal were not publicly disclosed, still the market reacted very optimistic about it.
At the same time, the latest macro figures for the US are showing that the tariffs are slowly starting to reflect in the U.S. economy. The Fed's favorite inflation gauge, the PCE index increased by 0,1% in May, which was expected. However, the Personal Income and Personal Spending in May missed heavily market estimates. The Personal Income dropped by -0,4% for the month, while Personal Spending dropped by -0,1%. Analysts are pointing that these figures are showing that the US consumers are spending less due to increased prices of goods, after implementation of tariffs. At the same time, there was a slowdown in the U.S. GDP growth rate, final for Q1 was negative for the quarter, at the level of -0,5%.
Tech companies continued to be in the focus of investors' interest. APPL closed the week at $210,08, with a modest weekly gain of 0,24%. MSFT gained 3,87% for the week, closing it at $495,94. Market favourite NVDA surged by 9,74% within a week, closing at $157,75. AMZN also had a good week with a surge of 6,33%. Despite higher volatility, TSLA ended the week at 0,33% higher, underperforming other tech companies included in the index.
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): LONG resistance area of 6176 (Wave 1).Colleagues, the previous forecast remains essentially unchanged, and the target is still 6176, but I think the forecast can be updated because the price has been flat for quite some time.
I still expect the upward movement to continue in the large wave “1” and in the medium-order wave “5”.
A small correction to the support area of 5873 is possible.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
S&P 500 - Fibonacci Resistance Intermediate wave (5) up from the 04/07/25 bottom could be nearing completion.
Minor wave 5 of (5) is close to a Fibonacci relationship with Minor wave 1.
Using leeway around the 6,208 target gives a broad zone of 6,175 to 6,220. The SPX could reach this zone on 06/27/25.
Is Now a Good Time to Invest in the S&P 500? Is Now a Good Time to Invest in the S&P 500?
The chart shows the S&P 500 in a long-term upward trend, with clear channels indicating zones from "extremely cheap" (bottom green line) to "extremely expensive" (top red line). Currently, the index is trading near the upper part of the channel, in the "expensive" to "extremely expensive" area.
What Does This Mean for Investors?
The current price level suggests the S&P 500 is expensive compared to its historical trend, increasing the risk of a short-term correction.
Historically, buying near the top of such channels has offered less margin of safety and a higher probability of pullbacks in the following months.
Investment idea
It is a good time to start investing gradually (using a dollar-cost averaging strategy, investing a fixed amount each month) rather than making a lump-sum, “all-in” investment with your savings.
This approach allows you to benefit from long-term market growth while reducing the risk of entering at a market peak.
The risks currently outweigh the potential short-term gains, and we could see better prices in the coming months.
In summary:
Now is not the time to go all-in on the S&P 500. Gradually investing each month is a sensible approach, given the elevated risk of a correction and the possibility of better entry points ahead.
Market crash looming - Fractal Echo of 2007 - 2025 S&P 500 In what other case could the "market" be here if it wasn't centrally rigged?
Geopolitics aside. The 2025 vs. 2007 numerological equivalence ("9" year) shows the power of 9 taking over: the end of a rigged bull market.
Chart overlays the S&P 500 price action from 2023–2025 (white line) with that of the 2006–2008 pre-GFC period (red line), highlighting an uncanny fractal similarity in structure, tempo, and momentum. The visual suggests that 2025 (numerologically marked as a “9” year, like 2007) may be echoing the same setup seen before the 2008 financial crisis: just massively worse.
$SPX Made new ATH’s
Yesterday’s price action was flat near previous ATH’s for the first part of the day and then the second part of the day we had some nice volatility that tapped the top of the implied move at 6215 and made new ATH’s just above that at 6215.08 and then pulled back. It’s worth knowing where the top of the implied move is.
Wind of Change - VOO ETFPlease watch this interesting article and feel the cool nice breeze blowing along...........
Nice , isn't it ?
As I read this article, I can't help as if a REAL giant fan was blowing at me although I know it is not REAL, just an image in my mind, magnified by the LED image and the sound as well.
And for a moment, I allowed it to play with my mind and instantly, I felt cooler.........
It is the same for reporters/journalists worldwide who made a living covering news and writing sensational news headlines to capture your eyeballs. Although we are not in Israel/Iran war, we too feel the pain and tragedy suffered by the innocent people.
How about the numerous floods happening in China ? I can't help but feel a sense of gratitude for where I am born - Singapore , free from natural disasters.
It is the same as INVESTING/TRADING. If you look at your P&L statement on a daily/hourly basis, it somehow spurs you to take an impulsive action. This is especially if you have lost some money and you wanted to quickly recover your losses. On one hand , you wanted it to go along but afraid the pullback may be too strong and your profits turn to losses again.
I remembered the book I read about - it says yesterday result was history. Whatever had happened , leave it there. Today is a fresh start and if you want to trade, you must have a brave heart and start afresh , look at your available capital (not including what you had lost) and do what you are supposed to do in the moment.
Social media is a double edge sword and every day, there are doomsday porns including marketing gurus telling you that the stock market is overvalued, tariffs this , tariffs that and you should sell. Did you ?
And there are also Asia bulls or rather China bulls that claims US funds are shifting to China and the price is going to the moon. I have often said treat this as entertainment , as reference but do your own due diligence.
A safer and lower risk is to get exposed to the VOO ETF where it is more diversified and you need not worry about a single company performance dragging the rest down.
Position sizing is also important - just because you had made some money (could be luck), it does not mean you should increase your position size (increase in risk) due to your greed. Consistency is the game in trading not BIG IN BIG OUT.
S&P500 INDEX (US500): New ATH & More Growth
S&P500 index updated the all-time high on Friday.
The market successfully broke and closed above an underlined resistance.
More growth is coming and the index is going to reach 6280 level soon.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
SPX partial profit pivot approaching Looks like we are entering a choppy 4-5, 4-5 topping pattern will likely take 1-2 week to play out to a point where we can see the waves more clearly. This is slightly more bullish option.
S&P500 Potential UpsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring US500 for a buying opportunity around 6,075 zone, S&P500 is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 6,075 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
