SPX bullish pattern#SPX made a triangle months ago which was made of 5 elliot waves the M HARMONIC PATTERN made between wave ABC can show us the target which is 162% so the market will go on to this level
US500 trade ideas
S&P500 - Short after BOS !!Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on S&P500.
Technical analysis: Here we are in a bearish market structure from 4H timeframe perspective, so I look for a short. We have hidden divergence for sell on H4 and regular divergence on H1, so after BOS I will open a short.
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Nightly $SPX / $SPY Scenarios for 2.5.2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News:
📊 Trade Balance: The U.S. trade deficit is expected to widen to $96.50 billion in December, up from $78.20 billion in November.
📈 Key Data Releases:
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (8:15 AM ET): 🏢 Forecast: 148K | Previous: 122K
Services PMI (9:45 AM ET): 🏭 Forecast: 52.8 | Previous: 56.8
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (10:00 AM ET): 📊 Forecast: 54.2 | Previous: 54.1
💡 Market Scenarios:
📈 GAP ABOVE HPZ: A further gap up will get a rejection below 6032.
📊 OPEN WITHIN EEZ: Slight move higher as a continuation and drop down 1% off the HCZ.
📉 GAP BELOW HCZ: Consolidate lower and pump back higher.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPX #SPY #daytrading #charting #trendtao
SPX Nears All-Time Highs – Is a Breakout Imminent?The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has been following a strong upward trajectory, consistently forming higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL), indicating a bullish trend.
However, the price is now approaching a rising trendline that has acted as a key resistance multiple times in the past.
S&P 500 consolidates near recent highs ahead of Amazon earningsThe markets remain in a risk-on mode, with major global indices rallying.
Earlier in Europe, the German DAX, the UK’s FTSE, and several other indices hit record highs. The FTSE outperformed due to weak UK economic data, which increased the likelihood of more rate cuts from the Bank of England. While the BoE cut rates as expected, two MPC members voted for a surprising 50-basis-point cut, causing the pound to drop sharply and boosting the FTSE.
From the U.S., unemployment claims came in slightly higher than expected. With the non-farm payrolls report due tomorrow, the U.S. dollar has pulled back from earlier highs. Given the positive risk sentiment, currency pairs like the Aussie dollar could be on the verge of a comeback.
The focus will turn to Amazon’s earnings, which are set to be released after the close.
Ahead of Amazon's results, the S&P remains in consolidation, attempting to form a bottom following recent volatility caused by Trump’s tariff threats. As long as major support levels shown on the chart hold, any minor pullbacks shouldn’t change the broader technical outlook.
short-term support comes in at 6042, followed by 6,000. Longer-term support is seen around 5830 area, which is critical to hold.
On the upside, resistance comes in around 6085 to 6100. Above here, there is nothing significant until we potentially reach new highs.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
SPX500: Breakout or Rejection? Multi-Timeframe + Macro Analysis📢 S&P 500 (US500) at a Key Decision Point
The index has been consolidating around 6000–6100 and is now testing critical breakout resistance near 6100–6110.
🔹 Weekly Outlook
The rising channel structure remains intact, with higher highs & higher lows.
Major supports: 5000, 5200, 5400 (weekly OBs).
Momentum still bullish: SMA alignment (10 < 50 < 100 < 200) shows strength.
🔹 Daily Technicals
SPX broke out of its previous smaller channel and is now in a consolidation phase.
6000 is now a strong pivot zone, while 6110 is the key breakout level to watch.
RSI is above 57 (bullish but not overextended).
🔹 Macro Insights
GDP growth at 2.3% – Strong consumer spending but slowing industrial growth.
Fed rates at 4.25-4.50% – Real rates are positive, supporting large caps.
Hedge funds are net short SPX futures (~-75k contracts) – Short-covering potential.
Forward P/E at 21-22x – Valuation is elevated, meaning earnings need to continue outperforming.
💡 Trade Scenarios:
✅ Bullish Breakout: Long if price closes above 6110, targeting 6200–6350.
✅ Pullback Buy: Long at 5930-5886 (bullish OB) with stops at 5850.
✅ Bearish Breakdown: Short if price loses 5900, targeting 5750-5600.
📊 What do you think? Will SPX break out or reject at 6100? Drop your thoughts in the comments! 🚀
🔗 Join our free trading community for live insights & real-time trade setups!
#SPX500 #US500 #StockMarket #TradingView #MacroAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis
SPX500 MACRO AND TECHNICAL INSTITUTIONAL ANALYSISUS500 (S&P 500) – Integrated Technical + Macro Analysis
1) Weekly Technical Recap
1. Rising Channel & Structure
• The S&P 500 has traded in a long-term ascending channel since late 2022. The most recent swing low formed around 5756, with price currently around 6000–6100, poised near the channel’s upper boundary (~6200–6350).
2. Key Weekly Levels
• Supports: 5000 (major horizontal), 5200/5400 (bullish weekly OBs).
• Resistance: ~6200–6350 channel top.
• No downside structural shifts: Higher highs and higher lows remain intact.
3. Momentum & Indicators
• SMA Alignment: 10 < 50 < 100 < 200, all sloping upwards.
• Ichimoku: Price above the Cloud; conversion line above baseline.
• RSI (~61): Healthy bullish zone, not yet overbought.
• MACD: Well above zero, histogram red but waning.
• ADX (~12): Low reading indicates mild trend strength—consistent with consolidation.
Weekly Conclusion: The broader uptrend is intact, with no major cracks in the bullish structure. A pullback to 5756–5600 remains possible but would likely be viewed as a buying opportunity unless significant macro/technical damage appears.
2) Daily Technical Recap
1. Consolidation & Breakouts
• After breaking out of a smaller channel in mid-December, the index entered a sideways range around 6000–6100.
• Recent price action suggests an attempt to push higher, clearing a minor resistance near 6063.
2. Daily Support & Order Blocks
• Supports: 6000 (recent pivot), 5930–5886 (daily bullish OB), and 5750 (major daily floor).
• Former bearish OB at 6000 now broken to the upside, hinting that consolidation may be ending.
3. Indicators
• SMA Stack: 10 > 50 > 100 > 200; bullish realignment post-consolidation.
• RSI (~57): Above 50, moderately bullish.
• MACD: Green histogram, lines above zero—resumed upward momentum.
• ADX (~22): Negative DMI still slightly above positive DMI, showing residual caution.
• Volatility: Declining ATR suggests calmer price moves unless a new catalyst emerges.
Daily Conclusion: The index appears to be exiting its consolidation range. A decisive daily close above 6100–6110 would reinforce bullish continuation toward 6200+. Failing that, support at 6000–5930 could provide a new base for dip-buying.
3) Intraday (4H/2H/30m)
• 4H:
• Price is above key SMAs and Ichimoku Cloud. A descending trendline near ~6109 is the next resistance test.
• RSI ~60, MACD bullish but slightly waning; ADX ~16 suggests mild uptrend.
• 2H/30-Min:
• Bullish break of recent bearish OBs. RSI in low-mid 60s (positive).
• Choppy structure but leaning mildly bullish.
Intraday Conclusion: Short-term signals favor further upside as long as price holds above 6000–5950. The 6100–6117 zone is pivotal. A break higher likely triggers momentum buying; a push below 5950 re-opens deeper retracement levels.
4) Macro Context & Integration
A) Growth & Earnings Backdrop
• U.S. GDP: Grew 2.3% annualized in Q4 2024, still positive but moderating from 3.1% in Q3.
• Late-Expansion Cycle: Consumer spending robust, unemployment near lows. Manufacturing lags (PMI <50), but services remain healthy—this mix supports corporate revenues, particularly in consumer-facing S&P 500 sectors.
• Earnings: Q4 earnings soared ~12–13% YoY; broad-based improvements. Net profit margin ~12.1%, above the 5-year average.
Impact: The positive earnings environment and stable (though slowing) macro growth favor the S&P 500’s large-cap constituents. A flattening manufacturing sector is less impactful given the index’s heavier weighting in services/tech.
B) Fed Policy & Inflation
• Rates: Fed funds at 4.25–4.50%, having paused after cutting 100bps since Sep 2024. Real rates turned positive (~4% Treasuries vs. ~3% core inflation). The Fed expects only two more cuts in 2025, so policy remains cautious.
• Inflation: Headline ~2.9%, near Fed target. Core at 3.2%—declining. Wage growth ~3.8% helps consumer spending but marginally pressures corporate labor costs.
Impact: Slowing inflation bodes well for profit margins. The S&P 500 typically benefits from stable rates. However, valuations are more sensitive if real yields stay high for longer, potentially impacting growth-heavy segments like tech.
C) Valuation & Investor Sentiment
• Forward P/E ~21–22x: Above historical norms. The market is pricing in continued earnings strength and a tame bond environment.
• Fund Flows & Positioning: Hedge funds are net short S&P 500 futures (~-75k contracts), indicating skepticism and room for short covering. VIX ~15–16 suggests low volatility, but any surprise (e.g., Fed hawkish pivot, geopolitical flare-up) could spike volatility.
Impact: Elevated valuations mean the index needs ongoing earnings beats to maintain its uptrend. The widespread short positioning could fuel a short-covering rally if bullish catalysts (e.g., better macro data) emerge.
D) Geopolitical & Policy Risks
• Trade Tensions: Potential new 10% tariffs on imports, plus the semiconductor “chip war” with China. Large S&P constituents (especially tech) could be affected if the White House escalates.
• Fiscal Policy: Trump’s new administration may propose corporate/middle-class tax cuts. This could lift earnings but raise deficits, nudging yields higher.
Impact: So far, the market assumes “status quo” on trade. Any negative developments might trigger a bigger correction. On the flip side, tax cuts can boost after-tax earnings.
E) US Dollar & Global Liquidity
• Strong Dollar: ~DXY > 102. This can hamper S&P 500’s multinational revenue translation but also attract foreign capital inflows.
• Liquidity: Fed QT is balanced by still-high reserves and capital inflows. Despite net draining, the S&P 500 hasn’t lost liquidity support.
Impact: Dollar strength slightly weighs on exports, but robust inflows keep large-cap multiples elevated. If the dollar rally extends, watch for earnings headwinds in globally exposed sectors (tech, industrials, consumer discretionary with foreign operations).
5) Synthesis: Macro + Technical Outlook
1. Technical:
• Bullish structure from weekly down to intraday, with a breakout attempt above 6100 looming. Supports at 6000–5930.
2. Macro:
• Strong EPS growth and fading inflation provide a tailwind. Elevated valuations demand continued corporate outperformance.
• The Fed’s neutral stance is neither too restrictive nor overtly stimulative, but real rates remain positive—potentially capping P/E expansions.
Overall Bias: Bullish, with a watchful eye on valuations. A break above 6100–6117 could fuel another leg to 6200–6350. Downside remains limited unless macro disappointments (or trade escalations) emerge. If earnings remain robust, the S&P 500 should sustain its uptrend into 2025.
6) Potential Trade Scenarios
1. Bullish Continuation (Breakout)
• Trigger: Daily/4H close above 6100–6110.
• Stop-Loss: Below 6000 (recent pivot).
• Targets: 6200 (initial), 6350 (channel top).
• Macro Rationale: Strong GDP/earnings momentum, stable inflation. Hedge-fund shorts provide potential short-covering fuel.
2. Pullback Buy (Dip Entry)
• Scenario: Price retreats to 5930–5886 (daily OB).
• Entry Trigger: Bullish reversal candle on daily or 4H.
• Stop-Loss: Below ~5850.
• Targets: 6000–6100, then possibly 6200 if bullish momentum resumes.
• Macro Rationale: Slowing inflation and solid consumer spending reduce the risk of a major selloff.
3. Bearish Breakdown (Contrarian Short)
• Scenario: Market fails at 6100, closes below 5900.
• Stop-Loss: ~5950–6000 to avoid whipsaw.
• Targets: 5750–5600 if trade tensions intensify or earnings disappoint.
• Macro Rationale: An unexpected hawkish Fed twist, re-escalation of tariffs, or a growth shock could invalidate bullish structure.
7) Risk Management & Final Thoughts
• Watch Real Rates: If U.S. 10-year yields push further above 4%, the cost of capital for high-valuation stocks rises, potentially triggering multiple compression.
• Trade War Rhetoric: Reintroduction of tariffs on Chinese imports or aggressive semiconductor restrictions can dent S&P multinational earnings.
• Valuation Premium: The S&P 500’s forward P/E ~22x leaves limited upside if earnings decelerate or bond yields rise sharply.
Final Take: While the technical trend is bullish, the macro environment is supportive but not exuberant. The index can climb higher on continued earnings beats and stable Fed policy. However, overextended valuations and potential external risks (trade tensions, currency effects) warrant vigilance.
S&P 500 Index SELLThe index will peak in the first half of 2025 before losing 10-15% in the second half. This may be due to high inflation and higher interest rates, which the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep high despite the slowdown in economic growth.
now the stock market is dominated by a ‘bullish’ trend, but soon it may reverse and cause a hard reset. This is indicated by active growth of quotations of protective assets - precious metals, as well as shares of industrial and energy companies.
Now is the best time to sell 30-40% of US traded stocks
SPX500 Is Very Bearish! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for SPX500.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 6,079.06.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 5,930.08 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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SPX500SPX500 Overview
The SPX500 (S&P 500) represents the 500 largest publicly traded companies in the U.S., spanning multiple sectors like technology, healthcare, finance, and energy. It’s a key indicator of the overall U.S. economy.
1. Key Characteristics of SPX500:
• Diverse Sectors: Unlike the tech-heavy NAS100, the SPX500 offers broader exposure to multiple industries.
• Market Influence: Heavily influenced by U.S. economic data, Federal Reserve policies, and major corporate earnings reports.
• Less Volatile: Generally less volatile than NAS100, making it attractive for longer-term trades.
2. Best Times to Trade:
• Regular Trading Hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM (EST) offers the most liquidity.
• Pre-market and After-hours: Less liquidity but potential for gaps based on earnings/news.
3. Trading Strategies:
• Trend Following: Use moving averages (50-day, 200-day) to identify longer-term trends.
• Breakouts: Trade when SPX500 breaks significant support/resistance levels.
• Swing Trading: Capitalize on short- to medium-term price movements based on technical patterns.
• News-Based Trading: React to economic releases like Non-Farm Payrolls, CPI, and Fed announcements.
4. Key Technical Indicators:
• Moving Averages (MA): To spot trends and dynamic support/resistance.
• Relative Strength Index (RSI): Identify overbought (>70) or oversold (<30) conditions.
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Signal potential reversals or trend strength.
• Fibonacci Retracement: Identify potential pullback levels in ongoing trends.
5. Risk Management Tips:
• Set Stop-Loss: Protect yourself from unexpected market moves.
• Risk 1-2% per trade: Maintain consistency in your trading strategy.
• Diversify Positions: Avoid overexposure to single sectors, as SPX500 covers multiple industries.
$SPX My position closed up 30.23% todaySP:SPX Review of Today’s trading range
30min 35EMA stayed bearish underneath the 30min 200MA. That is a bearish signal even though we had a green day. I’m telling you, it’s a weird signal but it works often. We closed bearish here.
BUT, we still have a green signal line on this timeframe but just watch out because 35EMA under the 30min 200 is trouble.
My Position, which I posted in this mornings SPX trading range postm, closed up 30.23%
$SPX Bearish Divergence on the Weekly Timeframe
RSI is not matching the past 6 months of new highs , suggesting weakening momentum despite the price increase. This is a warning sign for a potential trend reversal, although not necessarily an immediate indicator to sell - but rather to be cautious at these heights.
SPX500 programmed to have a correction.My analysis is straightforward. On the weekly timeframe, there is a significant bearish divergence on the RSI, indicating that the market is moving in the wrong direction relative to fundamentals. This divergence has been present for six months, so one might assume there’s no reason for a change.
The market is in a bubble, but it needs a catalyst to wake up. While I appreciate some of Trump's policies, certain aspects of his approach could crash the market.
- Imposing tariffs on most imports might seem like a good idea. Trump aims to make the U.S. a producer of goods rather than an importer. However, the U.S. has lost much of its manufacturing base, engineering expertise, and know-how. China now dominates these areas, making this policy difficult to implement within the short span of a four-year term.
Instead, tariffs on all imports would raise prices, worsening inflation. The market's prolonged rise has been largely driven by the Fed's efforts to control inflation. Higher inflation would force the Fed to raise interest rates, spooking the market. Another risk is a potential disagreement between the government and the Fed over policies, which would create uncertainty.
I believe that increased inflation, higher prices, and tariffs will ultimately undermine trust in U.S. monetary policies, leading to the opposite of the intended effect. The USD could weaken, and more countries may move away from dollarization (regardless of tariffs, as Trump cannot dictate other nations' monetary policies).
The market would likely react negatively, and the bearish divergence would play out, potentially causing a crash lasting at least a year, similar to what happened in January 2022.
I hope I’m wrong, but this scenario has a high probability of occurring.
S&P500: Neutral on 1D shows enormous upside potential.S&P500 is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 53.735, MACD = 16.510, ADX = 17.690) as it just crossed over the 1D MA50 again and after a 1D MA100 rebound remains relatively low inside the Channel Up pattern. The 1D RSI is also bouncing on the S1 level, where the September 6th 2024 bullish wave originated and reached the 1.786 Fibonacci extension. That is an excellent technical level for the next HH (TP = 6,300).
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US500 Faces Strong Resistance Near 6040 US500 Faces Strong Resistance Near 6040
The US500 has encountered a strong resistance zone near 6040.
While fears related to President Trump's decisions have temporarily subsided, it remains evident that any further steps he takes could significantly impact the stock market.
For the time being US500 found a strong resistance zone near 6040 and it can move down further as shown in the chart.
Key Support Areas:
5995
5968
5938
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
$SPX Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Day Traders Feb 5 2025AMEX:SPY Analysis, Key Levels & Targets for Day Traders
We are starting right under the 35EMA and under the 30min 200MA which is a bearish signal. We have a green signal line still and the 50Day Moving Average isn’t too far away.
We’re at a critical level with the 35EMA and 30min 200MA and that’s what I’ll be watching.
Expected move today between 5985 to 6070. let’s go, y’all
My position - Iron butterfly, put on at close last night 5975/6030/6035/6095
And Iron Condor put on the night before 5975/5985/6085/6095
BTCUSD shows a clear downtrend🚀 BTCUSD Analysis: Preparing for a Potential Move 📉
Analyzing BTCUSD across multiple timeframes – **Weekly**, **Daily**, and **4-hour** – suggests a bearish correction is imminent.
📉 Current Price:** $97,706**
Potential Target:** $94,000 - $92,500 zone**
🔻 Key Levels to Watch:
🔹 **Immediate Support:** $95,000 - $94,000
🔹 **Resistance:** $100,000 - $102,500
🔒 Suggested Stop Loss:** Above $102,000**
📊 Technical Signals:
🔸 **RSI Overbought:** Indicates a possible correction
🔸 **Lower Highs:** Suggests weakening bullish momentum
🔸 **Bearish Divergence:** Detected on the 4-hour chart
BTCUSD shows a clear downtrend, with potential for further downside after breaking the $95,000 support.
**Bearish View:** Expecting a drop toward the $92,500 range if support at $95,000 fails.
**Bullish View:** Breakout above $100,000 may resume the uptrend.
⚠️ **Note:** If BTCUSD falls below $92,500, we could see an extended bearish correction. ⚠️
🔔 **Be sure to follow updated ideas for real-time insights!** 🔔
⏰ **Analysis Time:** BTCUSD across multiple timeframes.
⚖️ **Always set a Stop Loss** to protect your capital! 🚨
S&P resistance for coming days...S&P is at the resistance of all time high.
A breach will take it 6800 level and it will also spread positivity across global markets.
Whereas a breach of lower trendline will take it for correction.
Stay safe and trade safe.
Note: View shared for educational purpose only.
Gann Trading Strategy Lessons: Mastering Time & Price Cycles. Gann Trading Strategy Lessons: Mastering Gann’s Time & Price Cycle for Precise Market Reversals!
In this Gann Trading Strategy Lessons, we dive deep into W.D. Gann’s powerful trading strategy using the 144-Time Cycle and 225-Price Cycle, specifically applied to the EUR/USD pair. This method helps traders identify high-probability reversal points by aligning time and price for precise market entries.
What You’ll Learn:
1. Understanding Gann’s concept of periodic and rhythmic movements.
2. How to apply the 144-time cycle as a turning point in the market.
3. The significance of the 225-price cycle and why markets move in multiples of 225.
4. Step-by-step guide to spotting time and price equilibrium for trade setups
5. Real chart examples to see how this strategy works in live market conditions
Key Levels to Watch:
- Monitor 144, 288, and 432 bars for market reactions
- Measure price movement in 225-pip cycles for trade confirmation
- Use trading tools like TradingView’s date and price range tools to analyse charts effectively
Why This Works:
Gann believed that time and price must balance before a trend reversal occurs. This strategy allows traders to anticipate major moves, reduce risk, and enter trades at the best possible levels.
📌 Timestamps: Mastering Gann’s Time & Price Cycle for Precise Market Reversals.
00:00 ▶️ Introduction
00:52 ▶️ Financial Disclaimer.
01:19 ▶️ Gann’s Market Cycle Theory.
02:32 ▶️ Gann’s most important time cycles — The Gann 144-time cycle.
03:27 ▶️Gann Time and Price Analysis Using the 225-Price Cycle and Squaring Techniques.
04:38 ▶️ How to identify the Gann cycles on the charts.
06:04 ▶️ Gann Time & Price Cycle - Example 1
08:30 ▶️ Gann Time & Price Cycle - Example 2
10:59 ▶️ Gann Periodicity, Disharmony & Strength Points
12:00 ▶️ Gann Key Takeaways & Conclusion.
Gann Trading Strategies with a focus on Time & Price Cycles, including the 255 and 144 cycles, to predict market reversals with precision. This lesson covers Gann’s price-time synchronization, squaring techniques, and cyclical patterns, helping traders identify key turning points and trend shifts accurately.
