US 500 – Potentially A Pivotal Week Ahead The US 500 index registered a new record closing high on Friday at 6396 continuing a bullish trend that has yet to show many signs of faltering. The Monday open has seen this move extend as traders digest the positive news flow from the weekend that a US/EU trade deal has been agreed after President Trump and EU Commission head Ursula Von der Leyen, met in Scotland on Sunday. This has seen the US 500 index rally another 0.4% to a new high of 6429 (0730 BST).
However, the week ahead could be a pivotal one for the direction of US stock indices over the remainder of the summer, and in this regard, it is perhaps surprising that market volatility measures, such as the VIX (fear Index), are back to their lowest levels since late March, indicating limited trader concern for what lies ahead. Although, things can change very quickly.
In many ways the week ahead is one that has it all, including a new round of US/China trade talks which start today, a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate decision, key tech earnings, tier 1 US data releases and on-going trade/tariff discussions. More than enough to ensure there is the potential for US 500 price action to become increasingly volatile as the week progresses.
Looking forward, Wednesday could be a very busy day, with the Fed Interest Rate Decision released at 1900 BST and quickly followed at 1930 BST by the press conference led by Chairman Powell, who has been under intense political pressure in the last 10 days. While the Fed are expected to keep rates unchanged, traders may be interested to see which policymakers were keen to vote for a cut, as well as whether Chairman Powell’s comments indicate a September rate reduction may be more likely than currently anticipated.
Then, later Wednesday evening Microsoft, Qualcomm and Meta release their earnings updates after the close, with Amazon and Apple’s results due after the market close on Thursday. These releases could be crucial for sentiment towards the US 500, with particular focus being paid to what these companies say about future revenue and tariff issues, as well as the specific performance of AI and cloud services.
This only takes us to the middle of the week, which is where the tier 1 US economic data releases take over, with the PCE Index, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, due on Thursday at 1330 BST, and then the all-important Non-farm Payrolls update on the current health of the US labour market released on Friday at 1330 BST. US 500 index traders may well be sensitive to the outcome of both of these prints.
That’s still not all. Friday’s US employment update coincides with President Trump’s tariff deadline which could add to US 500 volatility into the weekend.
Wow, I did say it’s a week that has it all!
Technical Update: New All-Time Highs Posted Again
It looks as if the latest US 500 index activity is maintaining the current positive trending themes after another all-time high was posted this morning at 6429. This could skew risks towards the further development of the pattern of higher price highs and higher price lows that has materialised since the April 7th downside extreme at 4799 was seen.
However, it must be remembered, these moves do not guarantee this price activity will continue, so traders may find it useful to assess the possible support and resistance levels that could influence price activity moving forward across what is set to be a very busy week of events.
Possible Support Levels:
If any US 500 price weakness does materialise across the week ahead with the potential to develop into a more extended phase of declines, a support level that traders may consider worth monitoring could be 6289.
6289 is equal to the current level of the rising Bollinger mid-average. Closing breaks below 6289 might suggest a more extended phase of weakness is possible, opening the potential for moves back to 6234, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, possibly further if this level in turn gives way.
Possible Resistance Levels:
Having been capped by the 6429 all-time high this morning, sellers may continue to be found at this level, so this might prove to be the first potential resistance if fresh attempts at price strength develop over the coming week.
It may be helpful for traders to watch how this 6429 level is defended on a closing basis, as successful closing breaks might suggest a further extension of the uptrend pattern currently evident in price activity.
Such closing breaks higher may well suggest price strength towards 6671, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci extension level of the February 19th to April 7th sell-off.
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