S&P 500 SELL ANALYSIS SMART MONEY CONCEPT Here on S&P 500 price has form a supply around level of 6081.93 which is likely to continue going down so trader should go for short with expect profit target of 5956.53 . Use money management
US500 trade ideas
The S&P sell before the NFPWe are expecting a drop in the S&P later tonight based on what the charts are telling us.
1) The high of S&P is at 6118 and 6130.
2) There is a pattern to sell at the current level of 6080.
3) Yesterday's high to resist the trade.
4) H1 divergence present as well
The optimistic target is 5930 (1:3 risk to reward). We will monitor and post updates here as the trade moves.
S&P - WEEKLY SUMMARY 3.2-7.2 / FORECAST📉 S&P500 – 4th week of the base cycle (average of 20 weeks). The pivot forecast on February 3 pushed the market upward after the overnight tariff gap. If you remember, I was in a short position at Friday’s close on January 31. I got tempted by the overnight tariff hysteria and closed my position in the morning. The European morning provided a great intraday opportunity to buy back the market with a good profit and open a long position on the pivot forecast.
⚠️ The cycle’s beginning looks very bearish, with a short rise followed by a steep drop below the opening level. I anticipated this in early January. By Friday’s close, signs of a double top at the December 9 and January 29 extreme forecast levels appeared. Strong hands with stops above the double top level should have held their short positions from January 24. The impulse from the January 29 extreme forecast is still active. Two long cycles remain open, as noted in the early January post.
SPX/Escalating Trade Tensions: New Tariffs on Steel and AluminumEscalating Trade Tensions: New Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum
The week began with yet another significant announcement, as President Trump, during a media briefing aboard Air Force One, declared a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports into the United States. He further indicated that additional reciprocal tariffs could be expected on Tuesday or Wednesday.
S&P 500 Technical Analysis
The price maintains bearish momentum, having already stabilized within a bearish zone. As long as it trades below 6,051, the market will continue its downward movement toward 6,020. A 4-hour candle closing below 6,020 would confirm a further decline toward 5,970.
However, if the price stabilizes above 6,059, it may advance toward 6,085. To establish a confirmed uptrend, the price must hold above 6,103.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 6051
Resistance Levels: 6079, 6103, 6143
Support Levels: 6020, 5969, 5937
Trend Outlook:
Bearish scenario: While below 6051, targeting 6020 – 5,970
Bullish scenario: Confirmation above 6059, targeting 6085 – 6103
SPX500 - Strong sell signalSPX500 - Strong sell signal for short.
Hello traders, please feel free to share your trading ideas, and please give a Boost if you agree with my trading plan. My trading strategy is Price Action, which is the simplest strategy of trading on the price movement. A key part of my discipline is Stop Loss set when opening a trading position, which ensures every trading is risk managed. My 1 to 1 trading training is available, please message. Trade well and good luck!
Analysis and updateLast week SPX500USD followed the prediction in my outlook. It finished the corrective move down into the lower 4H FVG and after that it went (corrective) up again.
So now on Monday is the decision.
If Monday closes below current price action this pair could go down lower for the break of the low from the (orange) Y-wave.
But if Monday closes above current price action, we could see this pair go up again for a new ATH.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for the bigger correction down to finish and a change in orderflow to bullish again. After that you could trade longs.
SPX500 Poised for a Breakout? Key Levels to Watch This MonthThe SPX500 remains rangebound but is showing signs of a potential breakout to the upside. In the short term, we could see a move lower, possibly filling the gap before any bullish continuation. If the breakout doesn’t happen this week, expect the range to hold. Watch these key levels closely!
New All Time Highs There are some readings on the chart that shows that the price might create new all time highs in the next period.
1, With all negative news for the last weeks, the trend did not continued lower, but instead it has created a false break
2, There a many rejections created in the last week, showing that the sellers do not have power to push price down
3, We are still in an uptrend
All this might indicate that the price might continue higher. Probably a strong bullish candle will indicate a buy signal.
$SPX Recap of Last Week Feb 18-21
Last week we started the week with a run to make new ATH’s and then a drop back down to the 50DMA.
New ATH’s on Wednesday and then a gap down Thursday. Watch that red signal line Thursday going into Friday - clear resistance (at the red arrows)
We saw resistance at the 35EMA and the red signal line and we dropped all the wan down to the 50DMA.
Friday was intense, I did take a red day on Friday but still had a good week overall.
S&P 500's Big Drop Raises Alarm: Is a Market Correction Looming?◉ Fundamental Rationale:
● US stocks fell sharply on Friday, with major indices like the S&P 500 SP:SPX and Dow Jones Industrial Average TVC:DJI experiencing significant losses.
● The sell-off was triggered by a warning from Walmart NYSE:WMT , which raised concerns about weakening consumer demand, rising costs, or other challenges impacting its business. As a retail giant, Walmart's outlook is seen as a barometer for consumer health.
● The decline coincided with the release of consumer sentiment data, which dropped to a 15-month low, signalling growing pessimism among consumers about the economy.
● The market reacted to fears of inflation, rising interest rates, and the potential for a recession, which could further weigh on corporate earnings and economic growth.
● The sell-off was not limited to retail stocks but reflected broader anxieties about the economy and future market performance.
◉ Technical Observations:
● Following a significant sell-off of nearly 1.7%, the index is expected to find initial support at the trendline.
● If the index breaches this support level, the next strong support zone is anticipated in the range of 5,650 to 5,700.
S&P - WEEKLY SUMMARY 17.2-21.2 / FORECAST 📉 S&P500 – 6th week of the base cycle (average of 20 weeks). By Friday’s close, a triple top formed at the December 9 and January 29 extreme forecast levels, as expected last week.
👉 Strong-handed position traders with stops above the double-top level should have held their short position from January 24. The current futures price has not broken above it. The next pivot forecast is February 24. Based on timing, I cautiously assume that it may work as a correction of Friday’s movement, followed by a downward reversal from the extreme forecast on March 3.
⚠️ There is a high probability that this base cycle will be bearish, with a short rise and a steep drop below the opening. I anticipated this in early January. A bull market does not form a third peak within the first six weeks of the current base cycle. The market remains under the weight of two overextended long cycles, which I have written about extensively in past posts.
⚠️ The most interesting event is expected on the extreme forecast of March 3, coinciding with the start of the retrograde Venus period, which I mentioned in early December. The start of retrograde Venus usually triggers a market crash, while retrograde Mercury will add volatility starting March 17. However, I do not expect a correction of more than 20%, as a major crash is not likely before next year.
Market should have an approximate one-third contraction.Market should have an approximate one-third contraction. Basic H&S forming.
Market Alert: Potential Downside Ahead! The S&P 500 (SPX) just closed with a strong bearish candle, dropping -104 points (-1.71%), signaling a possible shift in momentum. The index is now testing a key support level near 6,000, and if this level breaks, we could see a sharper pullback.
📉 What’s Happening in the Market?
1️⃣ Rising Interest Rate Concerns – The Federal Reserve remains cautious about inflation, and recent economic data suggests they may keep rates higher for longer. This puts pressure on equities, especially high-growth stocks.
2️⃣ Earnings Season Uncertainty – Many companies are reporting mixed earnings, with some missing expectations. Weak guidance from major corporations could fuel more downside.
3️⃣ Geopolitical Tensions & Market Volatility – Ongoing global uncertainties, such as geopolitical conflicts and supply chain disruptions, are adding risk-off sentiment to the market.
4️⃣ Technical Breakdown Risks – The SPX is currently sitting near critical support at 6,000. If this level fails, we could see further selling pressure toward 5,920 - 5,880 and possibly as low as 5,773.
🔥 What to Watch Next?
✅ Can the market hold 6,000 and bounce? Or will sellers push prices lower?
✅ Watch for reactions around 6,068 - 6,100—if the index struggles here, more downside is likely.
✅ Increased volatility means risk management is key—stay cautious, and don’t chase trades!
⚠️ Bottom Line: The market is at a turning point. If downside momentum continues, we could see a bigger correction. Stay alert and manage risk accordingly!
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 21, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
In the most recent weekly trading session, the S&P 500 surpassed our completed Outer Index Rally threshold of 6120, rendering the Key Resistance at this level obsolete. Nevertheless, following a significant price reversal, the index breached the Mean Support level of 6049 and is approaching the critical support level established at 5995. The index could decline further, potentially reaching the Mean Support level of 5939 and the Key Support at 5827.
Should the index initiate an upward movement from its current position or the Mean Support level of 5995, it may ascend to the newly established Mean Resistance level of 6082, potentially extending toward the Key Resistance level of 6143.
Hurry Up and Wait - The Markets Favourite GameHurry Up and Wait – The Market’s Favourite Game | SPX Market Analysis 21 Feb 2025
These kangaroo markets just won’t quit. Every time we break out of one range, the Bollinger Bands pinch again, locking us into another one.
Meanwhile, other indexes fell out of bed, but SPX? It’s clinging on by "the Bulls".
When will it finally open up and run? Who knows—but until then, I’ll keep finding new ways to say ‘hurry up and wait’.
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Markets Keep Bouncing, But Not Breaking
It’s like watching a kangaroo on a trampoline—lots of movement, no real progress.
SPX tries to push out of one range 🏋️♂️
Bollinger Bands pinch again, trapping price in a new range 🔄
Other indexes have fallen, but SPX refuses to follow
This makes trading tricky, as every potential breakout is quickly absorbed into another consolidation.
The Bollinger Band Pinch – What It Means
When Bollinger Bands tighten, they signal:
📌 A period of low volatility
📌 A potential breakout coming – but direction unknown
📌 Traders getting frustrated waiting for a real move
Normally, I’d switch to Tag ‘n Turn setups during breakouts, but with volatility still tight, I’ll stick to my 6 money-making patterns instead.
For now, it’s all about waiting for a clean break—no fake moves, no forced trades.
Final Thoughts – When Will the Market Open Up?
📌 The big move is coming—we just don’t know when.
📌 SPX is clinging on, but other indexes are weakening—watch for cracks.
📌 Bollinger Bands are tightening—when they expand, volatility will return.
Until then? It’s back to ‘hurry up and wait’.
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Fun Fact
📢 Did you know? In 2015, the New York Stock Exchange halted trading for nearly four hours—and the official reason? A “technical glitch”.
💡 The Lesson? Even the biggest, most advanced markets can freeze up, just like we’re seeing with these tight, choppy conditions.
SPX500 - 85RThe higher time frame shows strong indication that the SPX is close to seeing a big move up.
Right now there is a very nice wedge pattern heading into support and I think this could be a prime opportunity to get in.
The setup is also occurring around key timing (NYSE Open).
Probability rating: 4/10
Risk to reward: 10/10
Overall rating: 7/10
Bulls and Bears zone for 02-19-2025So far S&P 500 has been trading sideways this week.
Any test of yesterday's Close could provide direction for the day.
Level to watch : 6136 ---6138
Report to watch:
US: FOMC Minutes 2:00PM ET
$SPY $SPX Pullback to Gap Fill? I've been waiting for a rocket to AMEX:SPY $630 but my monthly tells me that February wants to close red. Here is my daily with a fib that we cant seem to hold above although today we did close above once I have been waiting patiently in this box unlike others, I have constantly reiterated, don't try to be a hero inside of the box. Now that the Box seems to be pushing towards the upside, I can't help but notice we continue printing bearish candles regardless of direction. Today we closed with a Hangman, which begs the question, could we perhaps lean bearish for two of the most bearish weeks of the year in comparison? I'd like to think I'm not wrong here and we will get a spill before anyone gets an expected blow off top. Be careful out there, volatility remains present and the VIX was above the 50DMA last time I checked. If we can get this gap fill and start moving back up, I will be confident in the gap fill being bottom. Seeing as $593 AMEX:SPY alert for bottom never filled, I will have to assume it's still a possibility. Taz out.
Scalping ES SPX, and XAGUSD using Irregular Liquidity Here's today examples of the set ups using our Irregular Liquidity Indicator, supported by Time Layered Liquidity
