Bullish Flag In The SPX/USDWhat's going on Traders? Making money I hope! What if I told you you could make some more $
Yepper! That's right! There is another chance at making some more cash if the flag pattern in SPX plays out.
Measured move; TP-1 5501.6 area.
TP-2 5794 area.
Believe it or not but we likely going higher.
Best Of Luck In All Your Trades.
CHEERS! $$$
US500 trade ideas
The Bear's Dilemma: Bull trap styles and bets. Anyone of a bearish persuasion always runs into the same issue when we rip like this.
If you know bull trap formation, you know they form like this. It's always tempting to fade- but if you are objective about whether you'll be right at all as a bear and also consider the different style of bull traps, you have to be aware of the risk. Because your idealised signal is stupidly strong move up, but this can also happen when a new high will be made.
Successfully dealing with bull traps in such a way as to profit big when right and do okay even if not, you have to think ahead.
If you follow my work you'll know I have a rather static style as to how I try to do this. When we're dropping into big supports, I always tend to discuss these different types of bull traps and I always try to buy where I think the low is. Citing that not only am I doing it for the immediate chance to make money long- but it's an important part of my bear plan later.
I know if I get the first trade right even just betting on a rally to the shallow retracement level, I catch between half and a third of the move up. This is going to cover my risk for what I'll spend if I get on all the bear traps and all of those setups fail. It allows me to get on them on with increasing RR. More scope for profit with a well predefined risk.
Into a rally I always look to fade the shallow bull trap. Very often that at least produces a dip. So I can often position for a 1:10 or better RR trade and generally will breakeven on the attempt if I get it wrong. Only in the times of extreme run-away moves does this fail. And I accept those are conditions I should expect to lose in.
If and when I think I am seeing signs of the shallow trap failing I get long targeting the 76 trap. Hitting this trade can be extremely lucrative and it allows me to either be sure a net profit on the swing or have the option to size my bear bets bigger aiming for a big jackpot if it works out.
When buying I consider all the main ops/risks.
Here's the new high move mentioned into the drop.
Here's the classic 76 which would also present as a head and shoulders (and butterfly) pattern now.
When I plan my bull trap trading I am always wanting to buy at the green arrows and short at the red.
I also do this with the assumption I'll be entirely wrong and lose all of my bear bets, and I try to structure it in such a way that will be massively net profitable if I hit my bull trades.
Bulls tend to show up on my posts being somewhat rude any time I do this- but this is outperforming buy and hold. At worse, I'm level when we get back to the top. Usually, I'm considerably ahead. And in the one instance the market makes the big reversal - I know I'm going to be left standing. Perhaps standing in very good stead if I get it right.
Using this basic template I find extremely useful for dealing with bull trap betting.
It provides a functional and practical framework to be able to benefit from most types of moves. Doesn't pretend to know the future. Is essentially direction agnostic. Can be quantified as profitable with backtesting against both rallies that make a new high and crash events - often with extreme outlier results in crash events.
Whatever happens, and whatever news drives it, this is the plan I'll execute on so long as the market moves in a way relatively similar to my template.
S&P 500 - Analysis and Rebound levels! 4/7/2025S&P 500 just pulled off a slick rebound at 4835.04 - Let's hope it's legit. A close above the 50-week SMA keeps momentum alive. If not, eyes on the next landing zones at 4754.17 and 4699.43. No panic! Don’t let the noise rattle your game plan! 😎
#SP500 AMEX:SPY SP:SPX
US500 - Long-Term Long!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈US500 has been overall bullish trading within the rising channel marked in blue.
Moreover, it is retesting its previous all-time high at $4,800 and round number $5,000.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of previous ATH and lower blue trendline acting as a non-horizontal support.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #US500 approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
SPX - Have we bottomed ?History often repeats itself. SPX just bounced off a key level the 2022 high and the long-term channel support which has historically triggered strong reversals (red circles), and we’re seeing the same setup again. MACD is deep in bearish territory but showing signs of flattening. Volume is elevated — likely signaling a washout or institutional accumulation.
If bulls defend this level, a bounce toward the 0.5 and 0.382 Fibs (5,493 – 5,649) is on the cards. Break below 5,114 and it’s lights out again — signalling that this bounce perhaps may just have been a gap and bull trap ? I’m neutral and acting as per technical hints, waiting for signs of confirmation. Although Risk/reward is solid here if momentum shifts.
Would love to hear any thoughts or different opinions. All the best as always !
SPX: Roller Coaster Fest. Looking for a possible short?Not FA*
A lot of set ups looking like flags. Missed the move up but caught puts today for good profit. Or decent profit. I have yet to conquer on how NOT to sell too early? Anyone have any tips?
Set up I’m seeing right now (SPY/SPX): Looks to be flagging.
Green Ray for a short entry
Overall sentiment still feels very bearish. Trump seemed to postpone the tariffs to prevent this market from tanking into near *recession* touches but some say it was a manipulative swing?
So thinking we sell off Friday - as China tariff deal still yet to solidify. A lot of uncertainty overall.
Also on the 1M, the set up looks like a bear flag.
Let me know what you guys think and any insight is welcome! Still new to TA and really wanting to get better at understanding charts/levels. Goal is to be consistent in trading and profitable, very profitable.
GLHF
S&P 500 Index: First Correction Since July 2023I was just looking at NVDA and the market has been bullish forever. A drop is approaching and I wondered, "Will this be a short lived correction or will it turn into a bear-market?"
Good question isn't it?
The last correction for the SPX happened between July and October 2023, after that, it has been 100% bullish with some retraces lasting a maximum of three weeks. So it is hard to think of a bear-market.
From January 2022 through October 2022 the SPX entered a strong correction, a bear-market, it lasted 280 days. There you have it.
How would that look like today? Let's see... Ten months would put us at August/September 2025, can you imagine?
These markets are super resilient, and with money printing going on over-drive soon, it is possible that we only experience a correction. A correction can last several weeks to a few months maximum.
Big correction or small correction, three weeks or ten months, the SPX is bearish and pointing lower in the coming days, weeks and months.
Namaste.
Update on my thoughts on long term fibs thesis I wanted to give an overview update for those who've followed my macro thesis over the years.
I've used various different things to support it but when it's come to my thoughts as to when the idea has failed I've always thought the only thing I really use for that is the big 4.23' of the 2008 crash.
Since 2019 I've used the thesis big fib levels will foretell big moves in SPX, and it's worked really well.
Inside the theory of trend formation through a fib swing I have been using, the 4.23 is the final boss. It's the biggest most important swing and at it everything is high stakes.
4.23 rejections can lead to 1.27 retracements. In the context of this chart, that would be a depression style move.
When this area was first hit in 2022 it made the high there. One of my known for 4.23's is they'll often bluff and then have some sort of spike out.
So if the 4.23 is actionable, we'd be in the end game now. Trying to work out exactly how much spike tolerance is very difficult but in the bear thesis this trading above the 4.23 should turn into a strong rejection. I'm talking conditions where weekly charts look like the 4 hour charts did in the original 10% break.
What would happen on a 4.23 reversal would be unspeakably bad with the size of these swings, and this 4.23 principle can be found time and time again marking the end of extreme moves (both up moves and crashes).
That's a concerning thing. If there's even a 5% chance of that happening I feel I have to think about it. Based on the odds of the fibs, the odds would be higher.
It'd be fair to say thinking a fib can affect such big things is irrational. But it would be honest to accept to ignore the fact they actually have right in front of us is all the more irrational.
But the 4.23 might break!
It's difficult for me to tell you the specific price at which I'd consider the 4.23 to have been broken but I can tell you the idea that it might break is something I deeply consider- because if that is going to happen, my bear thesis would never be correct inside a workable time/price move. This isn't a "Right eventually" sort of thing. The patterns have expectations.
If the 4.23 is not a top, then the plan totally changes. Because I know from my intraday / week trading that I really love to be fading 4.23s and 4.23 spikes regularly but if and when they fail the most exceptional of things happen. These are not all that notable intraday to anyone other than levels traders, but what if the same concept scaled up - I wondered.
I wondered this a while ago and noticed it was something I'd never really checked. As it happened, all the 4.23s I looked at in indices reversed.
Initially I found it tricky to find them but then I noticed the highest probability place to find them was heading into bubbles.
And this makes me super wary of the fact my bear thesis could be spectacularly wrong. Because around about this zone Nasdaq was getting into a 4.23 - and this looked quite bubble-like.
If I'd seen this in real time in the 4.23, I'd have thought that worth a fade.
1998. The Nasdaq did not make a high in 1998!
1998 was in fact a rather bad time to have a persistent bear thesis.
But you could have made money.
For a while there was a flux. During this you could have made some money. You'd just have to know when to stop doing that.
Inside a thesis such as this, when there is a drop you always have to consider we might be in a spot something like this.
From this move Nasdaq would go into a rally that literally changes the perspective of the chart. As you click through bar by bar the previous crash bars become hard to see.
Nothing but up.
Then sideways.
Nothing but up.
Then we're inside of the topping zone.
If you didn't decide before the fact, where do you drop the bear thesis there? It's tough. Because the rally section would seem like a blow off. Then we go sideways. Which feels like the steam has ran out. Then we go into the real blow off. Where to close your short would be handled for you if you didn't - but it's hard to know when you'd flip bull there.
For me, at least. Because I'd want to buy a crash move. And there really are not all that many of them. My style of trading is optimised for trading reversals (either of corrections or absolute) and steady and persistent pullback-less trends are trickier for me. I need to have a really good idea of where I'd want to switch to that style and my failure conditions (because all that momentum trading with no stops stuff isn't for me - I could not sleep at night - being someone who's benefited from so many major trend reversals and seeing how fast they happen).
Looking through different examples of 4.23 breaks (which really are mostly found before bubble like moves or crashes if inverted) I have come to conclusion that the best thing to have done would have probably been to buy the low of the last crash before the bubble.
Just buy the low before the bubble. That's it. Thanks for reading!
Of course, on a more practical level - we actually have to try to do that. Now...if the break was coming, we'd maybe actually be AT that spot.
I think to give the bearish 4.23 thesis its full fair chance we have to accept some sort of stop running above this recent high.
Stuff like that is totally fail game. Even something a bit more spikey would be fine if it rejected. But if we trend up here, break highs and then continue to trend up, I really do think that would be the conditions where I would stop generating bear short levels. I'd switch my methods to generating bear risk areas but main using these for bullish trail/breakout decisions.
I first came into indices in 2019 with my bear thesis on SPX. Which was spectacularly half right. But I'd forecast a two leg crash. Fortunately enough for me, when the high was broken I became disinterested in SPX and went back to Forex. Only setting an alert for the next big level, which triggered 2021. This is when I setup the "HoleyProfit" username.
This period of time has been the best time to be a bear inside of my trading lifetime. But I believe if we're not somewhere deep inside the end game for this bull market we could head into conditions where if you trade flawlessly as a bear you can perhaps scrape breakeven eventually. Which are not good times to be a bear. They'd be good times to be a bull.
If I don't think about this, we could have a move that looks like an obvious blow off in SPX to me.
And ends up looking like this.
Which I don't want to be short into. And realistically I'm not. I'd hit stops well before any of that madness affected me. But I don't want anyone who's followed my ideas and seen these having the big previous successes thinking it's a slam dunk sort of thing. I do believe if my bear thesis failed it would be spectacularly.
I believe we're in a bubble. Whether we're late or mid bubble I am open minded to.
Being mid bubble and being aware of it would be INCREDIBLE. Some people think I am determined to be a bear just because I want to be. I'd be happy with massively awesome markets. A trend one way or the other pay just as much to me. It's better to make money in conditions your broker and bank are not going out of business.
I really don't mind being bullish. It's just sketchy doing it at major resistance levels with all the other weird confluences (like interest rate patterns etc).
We are somewhat close to crux in this thesis. Hopefully you can easily understand how it's not practical to put a price on specifically but I do want to note that while I have plans to short different bull trap levels / spike outs on this rally - we are getting the point where my net thesis may be proven wrong on the large reversal.
If that happens, my option and style will be become polar opposite. For me to continue to be bearish above the 4.23 would be me just wandering off into a jungle of random for trying to have an overall plan. And in fact, for me to not switch my bias from bear to hyper bullish on a 4.23 would be intellectually dishonest and directly fading the edges that the original idea bet on.
Markets may make big reversals at major resistances, but if they break- can be much different.
I wanted to be clear and thorough on this while while are still generally low. While I've discussed some different bear plans into a rally, it is also one of my considerations that this rally could end up spelling out the end of my bear thesis if we made new highs and were persistent.
The net bear thesis will be right or wrong inside a specific zone. That zone is big and tricky to define, but it's specific. Specific in the fact that I'm saying we're specifically in that zone.
There's potentially for setups that could take a lot of time to complete, but in terms of the zone and conditions what's accepted is getting narrower and narrower.
It is entirely placeable within the next 6 months my entire macro swing bias will have changed.
Or this might all just be the bull trap taking. We'll see how it goes.
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SP500 may have already hit the low In the video I have shown an interesting relationship between past crashes on SP500 which shows we might have already hit the low are very close to it before we start next major rally.
Note: Even though the relationship I have shown holds true so far doesn't Guarantee it will in future as well as all patterns no matter how convincing get invalidated at some point.
S&P INTRADAY oversold bounce backUS stock futures dropped and the dollar weakened as concerns grew that the trade war could cause lasting economic damage. This came despite a surge in European and Asian equities, which followed a major rally on Wall Street after President Trump unexpectedly paused most of his tariffs. The move lifted global risk sentiment temporarily, but also isolated China as the primary target of Trump’s trade offensive, limiting Beijing’s options for near-term de-escalation. In response, Chinese leaders are meeting today to consider additional economic stimulus.
Meanwhile, U.S. Treasuries gained as investors sought safety following a volatile session. The Federal Reserve, for its part, signalled it plans to keep interest rates steady, aiming to prevent tariff-driven inflation even if the labour market weakens. Officials have publicly downplayed the need for rate cuts, choosing to prioritize stability over pre-emptive easing.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 5509
Resistance Level 2: 5660
Resistance Level 3: 5787
Support Level 1: 4815
Support Level 2: 4700
Support Level 3: 4585
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Bulls are not of the woods, not by far1. What happened yesterday?
In my weekend analysis covering US indices , I mentioned that US500 (SP500) could drop and test the ascending trend line starting back at the pandemic low. This line is confluent with the horizontal support level given by January 2022 ATH, offering a good opportunity for traders to open long positions.
Indeed, at least on CFDs and futures, this trend line was touched, and the price rebounded strongly from there.
2. Key Question:
Will we have a full V-shape recovery, or will the price drop back below 5k in the coming sessions?
3. Why I expect a continuation of the correction:
🔸 Strong Resistance: The US500 has established a robust ceiling around the 5350-5400 zone(also a gap there)
🔸 Lack of Building Momentum on Support: There's no clear indication that this resistance will be broken anytime soon with the lack of accumulation under 5k
🔸 Potential for Further Decline: Given the current market structure, a drop below 5k remains a realistic possibility in the upcoming sessions.
4. Trading Plan:
🎯 My Strategy: Playing the range.
✅ Buy near the 4800 support.
✅ Sell into the resistance zone between 5350 and 5400.
5. Conclusion:
I’m watching for market confirmations and will continue applying this range strategy until there’s a clear directional change. 🚀
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
Trading with Liquidity Sentiment IndicatorsJust a short introduction to trading with our indicators. I can't emphasise enough that you need to have at least 6 securities/tickers to click through to find the liquidity that fits the price action. At different times of day, different tickers are used by market makers to lay off deltas for hedging, this makes up the largest volumes in the markets, as well as the securities/tickers that you and others are trading. All these securities prices are moved around by the index they are a component of and the VIX which is made up of 30 day(dte) put IV. I will post more regularly this week reading live trading using the indicators.
SPX repeating 2022 patternI had said in a earlier post( see link to Related publication) that Vix is indicating we will be in 2022 style market and so far indeed it is, except for the breakdown from the wedge last week.
Expect the price to fluctuate within the wedge to consolidate before a breakout
The comparison shows close similarity of the wedge and path (except last week)
SPX potentials for resistance & lowsI do dowsing & that's where I get my information from. I am expecting a move up tomorrow and then a high Wed./Thurs. with a reversal back down.
I've had levels around the 5450 area even since September, as well as dates suggesting a return to prices even lower from around November/December 2023, which if you recall, was the start of this big run up. I'm only showing the more near term idea, because that's what seems more clear.
The areas at the top are likely resistance in the near term. I'm not sure on timing for lows, but suspect something big in June/July.
I have some potentially important dates including this Thursday, as well as April 18th, 23rd, June 2nd and twice I get July 14th as well.
Low Here Would be Consistent with a New High Coming Making a low in the general area in which we trade now would be highly consistent with a bullish trend development.
If this is the low around 5200, then I think it's quite likely we see a new high.
Profits should be locked in on all previous bear entries given.
If the local downtrend breaks here, the bear move is likely over.
S&P500: Trump's 90-day tariff pause just saved the day??S&P500 is having so far a +9.50% rise from today's low as even though Trump announced a 125% raise to China tariffs, he lowered and paused tariffs for 90 days to all countries that contacted the U.S. for negotiation. The 1D technical outlook is about to get neutral (RSI = 42.537, MACD = -181.510, ADX = 39.036) as the rebound is taking place at the HL bottom of the Bullish Megaphone, while the 1W MA200 stayed intact.
A similar Megaphone was last seen during the previous 2018 Trade War and was completed with the COVID crash that started an abnormal rally to new ATH to correct the equally abnormal crash. Needless to say, it was based on quick rate cuts but the situation isn't all that different today. Trump's stance towards negotiating, coupled with highly anticipated rate cuts, can deliver an equally abnormal rally now.
The previous HH of the Bullish Megaphone hit the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. This time if the rally extends to the end of the year, targeting the 1.5 - 1.618 Fibonacci Zone would be considered fair (TP = 6,900).
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