Monday morning analysisFutures had a pullback, but nothing special. I think it is highly likely that we try to break up today but fail and possibly we make a lower low by Tuesday
Good luck!
US500 trade ideas
S&P 500 : How Long Could the Stock Market Correction Last?S&P 500 Analysis: How Long Could the Stock Market Correction Last?
Six days ago, we noted that the Nasdaq 100 had entered a correction phase. Now, the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) has followed suit, closing more than 10% below its 19 February peak on Thursday, officially confirming a correction.
Statistically, according to research by Yardeni Research:
→ Market corrections occur quite frequently—since 1929, the S&P 500 has experienced 56 corrections.
→ Only 22 of those corrections turned into bear markets, defined as a drop of 20% or more from recent record highs.
S&P 500 Analysis: How Long Could This Correction Last?
On one hand, Friday’s market rebound suggests that buyers are stepping in.
On the other hand:
→ US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on Sunday that there are "no guarantees" the world's largest economy will avoid a recession. This came just a week after US President Donald Trump refused to rule out such a scenario.
→ The current correction has lasted 22 days so far, whereas historically, the average correction lasts 115 days and results in a 13.8% decline from the peak.
Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen)
The price is forming an upward channel around the median line, which alternates between acting as support and resistance (marked in blue).
→ Price action suggests that bulls are struggling to hold above the 6,100 level. In February, they failed to push towards the upper boundary of the channel.
→ Since the price has reached the lower boundary of the channel, there is a possibility that bearish momentum may start to weaken.
However, if the price loses support at the lower boundary of the channel, this would be a bearish signal from a technical perspective, indicating the potential for a deeper correction in the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen).
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
SPX : The Bottom is not IN yetMost likely we'll bounce from here and will get some relief on our bags. But don't get too much excited at that point, According to me it will be the time to de-risk some positions. I'm expecting this bounce to be a lower high and price to trade lower.
Reason : We have broken the weekly structure which is not a small thing. Last time when we broke the Weekly structure we saw a bottom at 27% decrease. I'm not saying that it will drop 25% this time as well but this downside movement ( that we have experienced ) is not enough. I'm expecting at least 15% drop.
Invalidation : Invalidation of this idea is weekly closing above 6,121. Until it doesn't happen, I'm bearish on equities.
GL!
Indices -MOnday 17, march 2025Liquidity Sweep & Rejection:
Price reached a high near 5,631.4 and got rejected from a supply zone (highlighted red box).
This suggests a potential liquidity grab before a reversal.
Entry Confirmation:
The price has started forming lower highs and lower lows after the rejection.
There's a consolidation after the rejection, possibly forming a distribution phase before moving lower.
SPX: no rate cuts in MarchThe negative market sentiment on the US equity markets continued during the previous week, where Friday brought some relief. A lot of mixed economic news, as well as stories regarding new trade tariffs continued to shape the market sentiment. The US inflation in February was in line with market expectations of 0,2% in February. New jobs openings of 7,74M in February were a bit higher from market estimates, however, Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary for March, showed a bit surprising inflation expectations of 4,9%. This was higher from the previous post as well as the market forecast.
The S&P 500 dropped to its lowest weekly level at 5.513, from where it started its reversal toward the upside, ending the Fridays trading session at 5.638. Tech companies managed to mark one day in the week with a positive sentiment. Nvidia gained 5%, Meta was up by 3%, and Tesla was traded higher by 4%. Regardless of Friday`s positive sentiment, the week ahead might bring some challenges. The Fed will hold its meeting on March 19th, and will bring its view on current economic conditions. Volatility might continue with US indexes. At this moment, FedWatch is showing a 97% odds that the Fed will hold interest rates unchanged at their March m meeting.
SP no RADAR
Stay alert! If the S&P 500 breaks this region, we might see a buying opportunity, targeting the last bearish move’s key zone. 🎯
🔹 Final target: The highest area of the downtrend structure.
🔸 Key levels: A and B are potential resistance zones where selling pressure could emerge. It's crucial to manage risk and watch price action closely! 👀
⚠️ Reminder: This analysis is not financial advice. Always trade with proper risk management! 🚀
What do you think about this setup? Drop your thoughts below! 👇🔥
📌 Follow @david.giansante for more insights!
Bullish rebound?S&P500 (US500) is reacting off the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 5,539.65
1st Support: 5,385.10
1st Resistance: 5,831.56
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S&P - WEEKLY SUMMARY 10.3-14.3 / FORECAST📉 S&P500 – 9th week of the base cycle (average 20 weeks), which began with the pivot forecast on January 13. The bear is completing the overdue 50-week and 4-year cycles. Target levels are outlined in previous posts. Retrograde Venus, which typically supports bulls, aligned with the bear this year and reinforced the decline.
👉 As I mentioned in early March and in the last post, retrograde Venus played out this week with a one-week lag upwards. The reversal was confirmed by the extreme forecast on March 17, as expected. This is classic – the start of retrograde Mercury. The setup suggests the beginning of the second phase of the base cycle.
⚠️ Given that we are in a bearish base cycle, the second phase is also expected to be bearish – a short rally followed by a sharp drop below the opening level. A strong resistance level is at the familiar 5850 mark. The next extreme forecast is March 17. Since retrograde Mercury falls on a Saturday, it may have already played out on Friday, marking the start of Phase 2. The next extreme forecast is March 24. There's also a pivot forecast on March 19, but that is more relevant to crude.
👉 The movement range of the short position from January 24 or the triple top on February 20 to the March 17 extreme forecast exceeded $20K per contract. Congratulations to those who took the trade – a great setup. The more daring traders may consider a long position from March 17, as there is decent upside potential to 5850.
Last chance for SPX500USDHi traders,
This is the last chance for SPX500USD to go up again.
Last week the price action of SPX500USD dropped to the lower Daily FVG and gave a reaction to the upside.
So next week we could see a (corrective) upmove to the higher Weekly FVG. It depends if the upmove is corrective or impulsive what we will be the move after that.
But also fundamentally we could see more longer term downside for this pair.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for a small correction down to finish and after that a change in orderflow to bullish on a lower timeframe to trade longs.
If you want to see more from my analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a boost and respectful comment.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis.
If you don't agree, that's fine but I don't need to know it. I do not provide signals.
Don't be emotional, just trade!
Eduwave
TP 3300 Long term projectionsS&P we have seen the blow off TOP this early beginning of bearish trend , sell will continue almost 15 months set your target 🎯 3300 get this trend profit taking
as mentioned below
TP1. 5100
TP2. 46500
TP3. 3900
TP4. 3300
Long term projections those who invest sell side for longer term
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 14, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During the recent weekly trading session, the S&P 500 reached the designated target of the Outer Index Dip at 5576, showing considerable volatility. On the last day of the trading session, the index experienced a significant rebound, leading to an impressive upward trajectory from that position. As a result, it is now aiming for the Inner Index Rally target set at 5712, with a potential subsequent target identified at the Mean Resistance level of 5840. Therefore, upon reaching the Inner Index Rally target 5712, or if there is a decline from its current price level, the index is expected to retest the completed Outer Index Dip at 5521, potentially reinstating the upward rally.
S&P500 The Week Ahead 17th March '25S&P 500 INTRADAY bearish & oversold capped by resistance at 5759 (200DMA)
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S&P 500 Update - 5200 on the horizonFrom an Elliott perspective the market appears to be in a 4th Wave correction. The a and b waves have completed and now the c wave is playing out.
If we look to a 1.618 extension of the a wave , the target projection is 5200.
The bias is to the downside and the bearish sentiment continues to 5200 and possibly an overshoot to lower levels.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 28, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this week's trading session, the Index gapped higher, passing our completed Inner Index Rally of 5712 and setting a Mean Resistance of 5768. This target was accompanied by considerable reversal, ultimately causing a downward movement. On the final trading day of the week, the Index underwent a pronounced decline, resulting in a substantial drop that surpassed the critical target of Mean Support set at 5603. The Index is positioned to retest the completed Outer Index Dip level of 5520. An extended decline is feasible, with the possibility of targeting the subsequent Outer Index Dip at 5403 before resuming an upward rally from either of these Outer Index Dip levels.
Monthly Chart SPX Cautious Liquidity PositioningThis month, the S&P 500 (SPX) has shown signs of a cautious liquidity shift as investors take a more measured approach to risk. While the index remains near all-time highs, underlying market activity suggests hesitation rather than aggressive buying. I currently have no active positions.
Investors are rotating out of high-growth stocks and into more defensive sectors like utilities, healthcare, and consumer staples. This shift signals concerns about potential volatility, possibly due to upcoming Federal Reserve decisions, economic data, or geopolitical risks. At the same time, large tech stocks—key drivers of the market rally—are seeing some profit-taking, further indicating a more defensive stance.
In the options market, there has been increased demand for downside protection. A rising put-to-call ratio and higher implied volatility suggest that traders are preparing for potential pullbacks rather than chasing new highs. Retail speculation has also slowed, with lower volumes in leveraged ETFs and call options.
Another sign of caution is the increase in money market fund inflows, as investors park cash in short-term instruments offering attractive yields. The U.S. Treasury’s ongoing debt issuance is also pulling liquidity away from equities.
While the Federal Reserve has hinted at possible rate cuts later this year, inflation remains a concern, keeping policymakers on hold for now. Market expectations for rate cuts have been pushed further out, tightening financial conditions and limiting excess liquidity that previously fueled stock market gains.
Overall, SPX liquidity trends this month suggest the market is at a turning point. While the index remains strong, the cautious stance in underlying market activity raises questions about whether stocks can continue higher without a fresh catalyst.
SPX Update - DowntrendThe S&P 500 (SPX) is showing signs of a downward trend, aligning with the 123 wave target around 5220. This critical area could offer insights into the next potential moves in the market.
US500US500 Price Action Analysis and Trade Setups (March 28, 2025)
Price Action Summary:
Weekly Chart: Long-term uptrend intact, but recent rejection near 6,200 signals a medium-term correction.
Daily Chart: Price is consolidating near 5,600 after a sharp drop from highs. Bearish momentum persists.
4H Chart: Lower highs and lower lows confirm short-term bearish bias. Resistance at 5,750 is holding.
1H Chart: Intraday range between 5,550 and 5,750. Price struggling to break higher.
Trade of the Day (Day Trading Setup)
Short Setup:
Entry: 5,700 after rejection at resistance
Stop Loss: 5,770
Take Profit:
TP1: 5,620
TP2: 5,550
Reason: Short-term bearish structure with resistance holding at 5,750.
Swing Trading Setup
Short Setup:
Entry: Below 5,550 after daily close confirmation
Stop Loss: 5,650
Take Profit:
TP1: 5,300
TP2: 5,100
Gold not looking good I thinkI do not think gold looks good, It is falling from the Head and Shoulder inverted patter.
Bullish Entry Spotted – Now We Wait...Bullish Entry Spotted – Now We Wait... | SPX Analysis 28 Mar 2025
Imagine the market dressed like Jack Nicholson in One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest—slack-jawed, glassy-eyed, and strapped into a straightjacket made of indecision. That’s been the vibe all week. SPX continues to shuffle back and forth around 5700 like it's lost its meds and forgot where it was going. But if you’ve been following the plan, none of this should be surprising.
We mapped it out on Monday, discussed it live in our Fast Forward mentorship call, and here we are watching it all play out with popcorn in hand. Today’s action may seem like “not much ado about anything,” but if you know what to look for… there’s gold in this grind.
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The end of March has the feel of a market that’s had one too many – not enough to fall over, but just enough to slur its way through price action.
All week we’ve been dancing around the 5700 level – and for good reason. It’s acting as a triple threat:
The GEX Flip Point
The prior range high
And now, the Bollinger Bands have closed in to confirm this as a possible launch (or rejection) zone.
Add in the emergence of a pinch point, and what we’ve got is a market that’s coiling like a spring… but refusing to actually bounce.
📈 Bullish Swing Activated:
During Monday’s Fast Forward group session, we mapped out a key level to watch for pulse bars. Lo and behold, the market obliged. I entered a bullish swing trade after seeing those bars fire right at the expected spot. No surprises, no panic – just execution.
🐻 Bear Swing Trigger Set:
If the market does decide to do a dramatic nosedive, I’ve marked 5675 as my bear/hedge trigger – just under Thursday’s lows. Until then, it’s a game of “wait, watch, and get ready to stack the next trade.”
💤 Nothing Much? Still Profitable:
Look, I get it – this week’s been slower than a BBC period drama. But just because things move at glacial speed doesn’t mean there’s nothing to do. As always, it’s about planning the trade, then trading the plan – not reacting to every twitch like a caffeinated squirrel.
And if you’re wondering how the market feels…
Let’s just say the “moves” this week have been scratchier than usual, so I’ll be looking for a special cream over the weekend.
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The first “stock ticker” was powered by telegraph wires and clock springs. It was invented in 1867 by Edward Calahan… who was just 22 years old at the time.
Before computers, before real-time data feeds, and way before Robinhood traders turned market moves into meme fodder – we had the ticker tape. Edward Calahan, a young telegraph operator, created the first stock ticker machine using the same tech that powered telegrams. It printed stock prices on a long ribbon of paper, allowing traders to see “live” quotes for the first time.
This primitive marvel revolutionised Wall Street – traders no longer had to wait hours (or days) for price updates. And now here we are, trading from our phones while sipping lattes and watching pulse bars ping in real-time. Technology, eh?
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Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
p.s. Ready to stop scratching your head and start stacking profits?
If you want to trade with clarity – not confusion – then it’s time to get serious about structure.
🔥 Join the Fast Forward Mentorship – trade live, twice a week, with me and the crew. PLUS Monthly on-demand 1-2-1's
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No fluff. Just profits, pulse bars, and patterns that actually work.
#SPX - 28 MarI was bearish SPX yesterday and the PZ held the rallies and price just sold down to new lows.
Overall, price is still in consolidation and the flush to new lows could see another move back to the highs of yesterday. Looking for an up from here.
3/27/2025 SPY outlook_bearishHello traders,
Hope you’re doing well in this choppy market. I initially expected a squeeze after rebounding from the 5500 area, but that didn’t happen. Instead, the 200 SMA acted as resistance, forming a bear flag over the last few trading days. I expect a break below the bear flag support line, leading to a move toward the 5100 area.
I’m not trading SPY directly, but since most stocks follow SPY these days, I wanted to share my outlook. Buying UVXY could be a good option.
May the trend be with you.
AP
#SPX - 27 MarI was wrong on the move for SPX yesterday as market sold down strongly. Bearish price action and so much that I think market is still bullish above 5600, based on daily price action, IMO we will further downside as long as 5750 holds.
