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US500 trade ideas

I May Have this Bull Idea Horribly WrongI know it looks good at this exact moment in time but that spike move we just had was so sus. It's really the sort of thing I expect to be dealing with when following a downtrend. Sell > big profit. Sell > big profit Sell > WTF was that Oh correction > Sell > Big profit. I could stack up odds that put the odds of a rally in this area at around 90% (Which is crazy high for the way I estimate odds). But that might have been it. I may have terribly misjudged how deep it would be. If I have this wrong, 4500 in MIN I've expect to hit and if that level breaks we might capitulate to 3000. EXTREMELY STRONG WARNING TO ANYONE USING ANY OF THE BULL IDEAS I'VE EXPESSED. If they're good, they'll be good and easy - and if not, ditch the ideas! They would be predicted to fail spectacularly if wrong. Probably around 5170 area.
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by holeyprofit
20
SPX500 Long - Bounce of 5200 key psychological level Tariffs are paused. CPI data was good, coming in at 2.4 instead of 2.5, indicating room for Fed to lower interest rates if economy gets worse. I expect prices to climb back up instead of getting pulled down by just China trade war. Entry: 5200 SL: 5160 TP: 5500 Results of ideas thus far: Number of trades: 4 WR: 25% Profit: 0.9R Notes: This is currently for personal practice to write out trade ideas. Feedback is welcome, and please don't mind if none of this makes sense.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by yuhaocooper
If SPX Was to Make a Slow Topping PatternI've been super bearish indices for a while but heading into the 5000 area in SPX I am becoming increasingly bullish. I think in the extremely bearish setup we bounce to 5500 and if we are actually making a big major top, then it's viable we swipe at the highs a few times. Liquidity ... and all that. This could potentially be a long time of choppy action around the topping zone. If that's going to happen there's epic bear trades coming in the future but to prevent from becoming exhausted as a bear before they happened - you'd be wanting to bank in the rally. Have plans to pick up an assortment of bets on a new high being made within 3 months somewhere a little under 5100. And picking p spot longs at some point which I can trail stops on and wait to see if the bull trap levels fail. I do think at the very least the min risk bears have into 5000 is a 10% bull trap. I'd be very careful as a bear now.
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by holeyprofit
1
Trump Pump Just Broke the Charts12% Up in a Day. Now What? What a difference a headline makes. Monday: Markets dump. Panic. Retail sells the low. We hit our bearish targets like clockwork. Wednesday: Markets explode like they found a cheat code. SPX rallies 9.5% in a day. Nasdaq? A completely unhinged 12% up. All because… tariffs might be paused again. You can’t make this stuff up. But you can trade it. When Euphoria and Edge Collide The Trump Pump Parade After last week’s fake-news-induced dump, we now have headline euphoria. No earnings beat. No rate cut. No macro shift. Just one rumour: “Trump might pause tariffs.” Cue the biggest one-day rally since 1933. Nasdaq: +12% SPX: +9.5% SPX now kissing the 5400 bull trigger level Financial media? Throwing a rave. Retail? FOMOing back into the top. It’s madness. But it’s not structure. The System Trader’s Reality Meanwhile, in the AntiVestor camp… The bear swing is still on but under review. Why? Because we trade levels, not vibes. And 5400 has always been our pivot. We’re now sitting right on it, with overnight futures starting to drift lower – like the market just realised it left the oven on. The decision zone is here. Hold 5400? It’s time to shift gears. Bull thesis activates. Tag ‘n Turn setups. Bull Pulse Bars. GEX Bulls Eye trades. Lose 5400? We go right back to feeding the bears. It’s not emotional. It’s mechanical. This is what system trading looks like. --- Expert Insights: The Market Owes You Nothing Mistake: Getting emotional after missing a rally or overstaying a short. Fix: Use a system with defined levels. 5400 was always the line. You don’t need to guess the pivot. You just need to trade it when it confirms. This rally may be overblown. But until the market proves otherwise, you don’t fight the tape – you ride it with structure. --- Fun Fact The last time the Nasdaq moved more than 10% in a day? March 13th, 2020 – the height of COVID panic buying. That rally was followed by… a further drop. Then a V-bottom. Then a massive bull market. So… is this the start of something new? Or just another overcaffeinated bounce? History says: Don’t decide early. Let price confirm.
SP:SPX
by MrPhilNewton
3-MONTH THE SQUID GAME II 'JUBILEE'. WHAT IS NOW & WHAT IS NEXTIt's gone three months or so... (Duh..? WTF.. 3 months, really? 😸😸😸) since "The Squid Game" Season II has been released on December 26, 2024. Nearly month later comrade Trump entered The White House (again). Still, everyone was on a rush, chatting endless "Blah-Blah-Blah", "I-crypto-czar", "crypto-capital-of-the-world", "we-robot", "mambo-jumbo", "super-duper", AI, VR and so on hyped bullsh#t. Here's a short educational breakdown, what we think about all of that, at our beloved @PandorraResearch Team. Trading can easily resemble gambling when approached without discipline, strategy, or proper risk management. Here are key reasons to avoid gambling-like trading behaviors, supported by real-world examples: 1. Lack of Strategy and Emotional Decision-Making Trading becomes gambling when decisions are based on emotions, intuition, or market hype rather than thorough analysis. For instance, Geraldine lost £15,000 on a spread-betting platform after attending a workshop that taught ineffective strategies. She believed the platform profited from her losses, highlighting how impulsive, uneducated decisions can lead to significant financial harm. Similarly, traders who overtrade or ignore risk management often experience devastating losses, as they rely on luck rather than a structured plan. 2. Overleveraging and One-Sided Bets Overleveraging—opening excessively large positions—is a common gambling behavior in trading. This approach increases stress and the likelihood of substantial losses. A trader who lost $400,000 on a single Robinhood bet exemplifies this. He overinvested in a call option, hoping for a quick profit, but the trade turned against him, wiping out nearly all his capital. Opening one-sided bets or adding to losing positions further compounds risks, as traders attempt to recover losses through increasingly risky moves. 3. Ignoring Stop Losses and Risk Management Failing to set stop losses or refusing to exit losing trades is another form of gambling. Traders who cling to their biases and avoid cutting losses often face irreversible damage to their portfolios. For example, many traders refuse to take stop losses, leading to catastrophic losses that erode their confidence and capital. This behavior mirrors the destructive cycle of gambling addiction, where individuals chase losses in hopes of a turnaround. 4. Psychological and Financial Consequences Gambling-like trading can lead to severe psychological and financial consequences. Harry, a trader with a gambling addiction, repeatedly lost money despite asking his trading platform to restrict his account. His inability to control his trading behavior highlights the addictive nature of high-risk trading and its potential to ruin lives. Similarly, excessive gambling has been linked to increased debt, bankruptcy, and mental health issues, such as anxiety and depression. 5. Long-Term Sustainability Smart trading focuses on steady gains and minimal losses, whereas gambling relies on luck and high-risk bets. Traders who chase big wins often lose their profits in subsequent trades, perpetuating a cycle of losses. Studies show that frequent trading, driven by overconfidence or problem gambling, reduces investment returns and increases financial instability. In conclusion, avoiding gambling-like trading requires discipline, education, and a well-defined strategy. Real-world examples demonstrate the dangers of emotional decision-making, overleveraging, and ignoring risk management. By adopting a structured approach and prioritizing long-term sustainability, traders can mitigate risks and avoid the pitfalls of gambling. -- Best 'squid' wishes, @PandorraResearch Team
SP:SPX
by PandorraResearch
Nasdaq and S&p500 short: Completion of B waveI mentioned in my previous analysis that we are waiting for a short (the previous one was a long-then-short linked with this idea). I did not post any short idea yesterday after that NOT because I am good and recognize a double combination. It's really because I was too busy with work and I am glad my last was a long-then-short. Back to this, remember that the huge volatility has caused the points in the chart to compress and thus even though the stop loss looks small, it is actually still quite a number of points away. So my suggestion is to manage your size and keep it small relative to your account. Good luck!
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by yuchaosng
4
Look there is our bottom :)I loved my title :) haha if you're reading this: I intrigued you! And I made you read it. ☺️ thankyou! Ok, This is what I think about why we might be near the bottom. The 200 EMA on a weekly scale has been a very selective indicator to indicate this. Above, you can see how the chart touches the candle when the market is oversold (as indicated by RSI below). You can see that it repeats itself in sharp, spike-like, and short-term decline: marked by the yellow circles on the chart. And finally, the volume indicates, with blue dot lines, the high and medium volume levels. There's no hay below. And we just entered HIGH :) This is going to get even more interesting... and sharp 😜 ✌🏼
SP:SPXLong
by marmoller86
1
[S&P500] 2008-Style Collapse in MotionI believe we are witnessing the early stages of a 2008-style crash, though this one will unfold more swiftly and catch many by surprise. The crash will likely test the COVID-era lows, and once the panic subsides, a recovery toward new highs will follow. FUNDAMENTAL REASONS After the COVID-crash recovery, the market became significantly overbought, and a pullback was inevitable—such is the nature of markets. Trump’s tariffs have provided a convenient excuse for profit-taking. While the tariffs didn’t directly cause the crash, they served as a much-needed catalyst. What might have been a typical bull market pullback, however, could escalate into full-blown panic. Why? Index funds. For the past decade, there has been near-religious advocacy for investing solely in low-cost index funds. This extraordinary delusion has overtaken investors’ collective consciousness—the belief that no one can beat the S&P 500, nor should they try. The most rational choice, then, becomes focusing on your career or business and parking your money in index funds. After all, if the game can’t be beaten, why bother playing? This logic resonates with rational index fund buyers—many of whom lack market experience and have never been tested in the trenches of a downturn. They assume they’re in it for the long haul, unbothered by pullbacks, confident they can hold through volatility. It’s a sound and logical stance. But will they hold? It’s easy to stay committed when the market is rising. When losses mount, however, the limbic system overrides rational thought, thrusting you into survival mode. You begin calculating how many years of work you’ve “lost,” lamenting that you could have bought a house if you’d sold at the peak, or watching your children’s college fund evaporate. Sleepless nights follow, compounded by a barrage of negative news. Eventually, exhaustion sets in, and in a desperate bid to salvage what remains, you hit the sell button. With so many unsophisticated investors—who have never endured a true market panic—holding portfolios dominated by index funds, a negative feedback loop emerges. The further the market falls, the more people question their strategy and sell. This cycle intensifies until the panic is overdone, weak hands are shaken out, and the market stabilizes. It’s a tale as old as markets themselves, though today’s index fund evangelists have yet to experience it firsthand. TECHNICAL REASONS On the monthly chart, a clear and potent triple RSI divergence stands out. This indicates the market is severely overbought and has been struggling to make new highs. While technical analysis rarely delivers definitive signals and can often be ambiguous, a triple RSI divergence on a monthly chart is as strong as it gets. Monthly charts of high-market-cap indices are immune to manipulation and short-term noise—it would take an infinite amount of capital to artificially “draw” such a pattern. The 2021-2022 pullback was an Elliott Wave impulsive wave down (a Leading Diagonal). In Elliott Wave Theory, impulsive waves mark either the final leg of a correction or the first wave of a new trend. A Leading Diagonal almost always signals the latter—meaning another impulsive wave in the same direction is likely to follow. The 2022-2025 bull market, meanwhile, has proven to be an ABC corrective wave up within the broader trend. This suggests the bull run wasn’t a continuation of the prior uptrend but rather an extended correction that pushed to new highs. Thus, the leading diagonal down foreshadows another impulsive wave lower, and the corrective wave up confirms this trajectory. Since March 2025, the market has entered free-fall mode—precisely what one would expect following an upward corrective wave. This sets the stage for a high-probability Elliott Wave Expanding Flat pattern. What’s unfolding now is an impulsive wave down that should, at minimum, retest the 2022 low. If panic takes hold, however, the decline won’t find a floor until it hits a major support level—namely, the 200-month moving average (MA200 Monthly), which sits precisely at the COVID bottom. Should that occur, the magnitude of the drop would rival the 2008 crash.
SP:SPXShort
by berightandsittight
1
June 2026 Sp500 will be at 7000 pipsThis is a corrective move. Trump wanted this to deal with the US debt. Everything is smoke a Trump crash. Nothing else. In June 2026 Sp500 will top at 7000 pips in a massive EW 5. Now we are in EW 4. It will take some time to settle the dust as you can see. Be ready, because after Sp500 bottoms out around 4700-4900 pips we will see a MOASS in the next year. After that, be ready, as well, to see a massive crash to 2500 pips that we will see at the end of 2028.
SP:SPXLong
by josemanuelmaestrerodriguez
2
S&P 500 Outlook: Black Monday Risk Points to 4,600US500 Weekly Forecast – April Week 2 After Trump’s tariff news and the VIX spiking to 29, the S&P 500 (US500) showed signs of cracking. Last week’s candle broke the prior low at 5,092 and closed at 5,061, forming a clear bearish engulfing candle with strong downside momentum. This confirms a structural breakdown, and the first major monthly demand zone sits at 4,600 — a likely target if fear accelerates. Primary Scenario: • Price could open with a short-term bullish correction toward 5,400 (equilibrium zone of the last leg). • From there, we expect a sharp bearish continuation to 4,600 • Alternative: If Monday opens with panic (Black Monday scenario), price may dump straight into 4,600, creating a huge imbalance between 4,600–5,400. • That imbalance could act as a magnet for a later retrace — and then another sell-off from higher again. Bias: Bearish — watching for retest after potential panic move Key Levels: • Support: 4,600 (major monthly demand) • Resistance / Rebalance Zone: 5,400 (equilibrium) • Breakout Confirmation: Weekly close under 5,092 already done This setup reflects both technical structure and the real fear in the market. If Black Monday unfolds, we may get a deep move followed by one of the cleanest bearish retests of the year. — Weekly forecast by Sphinx Trading Let me know your bias in the comments. #SPX #US500 #S&P500 #BlackMonday #MarketCrash #MacroView #SphinxWeekly #VIX #TrumpTariffs #Equities #LiquidityVoid
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by Sphinx_Trading
Stocks well off earlier highsWhile Trump's earlier post had lifted sentiment, things have now unraveled again as Trade uncertainty continues to weigh on sentiment. S&P almost flat on the session after failing to break yesterday's high. Let's see if dip buyers emerge later on. For now trading remains quite choppy as reciprocal tariffs are set to go into effect tomorrow, along with those additional tariffs on China. With trading so choppy, best to trade from level to level and exit on first sign of trouble. Lots of volatility = lots of trading opportunity, but if you are not careful, the choppiness could seriously dent your trading capital. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by FOREXcom
SPX500 Short at M5 supply zone due to tariffs uncertainty Market overview and macro outlook Rise in the equities market mainly due to the possibility of a 90 days postponement of the tariffs 1. What can kill this optimism: A single Trump administration comment otherwise. 2. We've risen by close to 8% from the lows. 3. Until the postponement is confirmed, i don't think there's much upside, thus, the risk is to the upside, and we should be looking for downside trades now Upcoming news 1. FOMC meeting on Wed - probably to the downside as it should be comments on keeping rates high to combat the tariffs uncertainty 2. US CPI/Unemployment on Thu - TBD - If high CPI - good for equities as it raises probability of interest rates cut - If high unemployment - good for equities as it raises probability of interest rates cut 3. US Core PPI on Fri - TBD - If high PPI - good for equities as it raises probability of interest rates cut Thus, I have a bearish view of the market and look to take Short positions here. Technical View At a higher time frame, I want to see price hit 5500 for a short position then. In the short term of today and tomorrow, I want to see prices hit 5267 for me to take a Short position - there's a Supply zone there from the M5 TF. SL: 5300 (Above supply zone and a major psychological point) TP: 5130 (Slightly above the lows of the previous trading zone before the breakout) Execution 1. Limit order - SL: 5300 (Above supply zone and a major psychological point) - TP: 5130 (Slightly above the lows of the previous trading zone before the breakout) - TF: Close limit order before CPI or PPI reports. If no entry by then Results of ideas thus far: Number of trades: 2 WR: 0% Profit: -1.1R Notes: This is currently for personal practice to write out trade ideas. Feedback is welcome, and please don't mind if none of this makes sense.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by yuhaocooper
2
S&PThe SPX touched a long-standing overhead, and came down ever-so-slightly to retrace the most recent peak. This is all totally normal. There is nothing here to worry about. In fact, the more touches of this overhead, the more likely it is that we break above it. You can see this has happened many times before in the S&P, where it breaks above an overhead, only to land on top of it, and then launch for a new even steeper part of the curve. The macro parabola that the markets are in.
SP:SPXLong
by Shammus01
1987 vs 2025: Are We on the Edge of Another Black Monday? 🕳️📉 The chart comparison is chilling. On the left, the infamous 1987 crash—a sudden gap over the weekend followed by a brutal free fall. On the right? 2025. A similar gap, a similar setup... and the fear is creeping in. 🫣 🔍 Here’s what we’re seeing: The current price action on the S&P 500 Futures eerily mirrors that of 1987. A sharp drop after a failed breakout, followed by a massive gap down. The psychological setup is nearly identical: markets under pressure, global tension, and growing uncertainty. ⚠️ While history never repeats exactly, it often rhymes. Is this just a healthy correction—or the beginning of something bigger? 📊 Keep an eye on volume, volatility, and macro catalysts—if we see continued panic selling, this pattern might live up to its reputation. 🧠 What do you think—coincidence, or a warning we shouldn’t ignore? #BlackMonday #1987Crash #S&P500 #MarketCrash #SP500 #HistoryRepeats #TechnicalAnalysis
VANTAGE:SP500FTShort
by SmartSignalss
6
SP500: Is This the 2025 Correction? Or Just Another Bounce?Looking at the weekly chart of the S&P 500 with RSI and key support trendlines, it’s clear we’ve entered a historically important level. 🔍 Context: 2020 → COVID Crash, RSI bottomed 💥 2022 → Bear Market, RSI again flagged a major drop 📉 2023 → Healthy correction, price respected trendline support 2025? → RSI flashing oversold, price testing the long-term trendline again. 📊 RSI is approaching the same low levels as the previous two macro shocks — is this a signal of another reversal opportunity? Or could this time be different? 🚨 If we break below this trendline convincingly, it could open the door for a deeper bear leg. But if we hold, we might just see another bounce-back rally like in 2020 and 2022. 📈 Watch for confirmation: A strong bounce with bullish RSI divergence = potential long Breakdown + volume spike = more downside ahead Let’s see if the trendline holds up — it has for 5 years… 👀 #SP500 #Correction #BearMarket #RSI #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketUpdate #2025Outlook #StockMarketIdeas
VANTAGE:SP500Long
by SmartSignalss