SPX 500 Technical Analysis This is not financial advice and I never recommend trying to pick bottoms and tops of markets. Trade safely and always wait for confirmation, with sound risk management.
US500 trade ideas
S&P 500 Outlook: Black Monday Risk Points to 4,600US500 Weekly Forecast – April Week 2
After Trump’s tariff news and the VIX spiking to 29, the S&P 500 (US500) showed signs of cracking. Last week’s candle broke the prior low at 5,092 and closed at 5,061, forming a clear bearish engulfing candle with strong downside momentum.
This confirms a structural breakdown, and the first major monthly demand zone sits at 4,600 — a likely target if fear accelerates.
Primary Scenario:
• Price could open with a short-term bullish correction toward 5,400 (equilibrium zone of the last leg).
• From there, we expect a sharp bearish continuation to 4,600
• Alternative: If Monday opens with panic (Black Monday scenario), price may dump straight into 4,600, creating a huge imbalance between 4,600–5,400.
• That imbalance could act as a magnet for a later retrace — and then another sell-off from higher again.
Bias: Bearish — watching for retest after potential panic move
Key Levels:
• Support: 4,600 (major monthly demand)
• Resistance / Rebalance Zone: 5,400 (equilibrium)
• Breakout Confirmation: Weekly close under 5,092 already done
This setup reflects both technical structure and the real fear in the market. If Black Monday unfolds, we may get a deep move followed by one of the cleanest bearish retests of the year.
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Weekly forecast by Sphinx Trading
Let me know your bias in the comments.
#SPX #US500 #S&P500 #BlackMonday #MarketCrash #MacroView #SphinxWeekly #VIX #TrumpTariffs #Equities #LiquidityVoid
1987 vs 2025: Are We on the Edge of Another Black Monday? 🕳️📉 The chart comparison is chilling.
On the left, the infamous 1987 crash—a sudden gap over the weekend followed by a brutal free fall.
On the right? 2025. A similar gap, a similar setup... and the fear is creeping in. 🫣
🔍 Here’s what we’re seeing:
The current price action on the S&P 500 Futures eerily mirrors that of 1987.
A sharp drop after a failed breakout, followed by a massive gap down.
The psychological setup is nearly identical: markets under pressure, global tension, and growing uncertainty.
⚠️ While history never repeats exactly, it often rhymes. Is this just a healthy correction—or the beginning of something bigger?
📊 Keep an eye on volume, volatility, and macro catalysts—if we see continued panic selling, this pattern might live up to its reputation.
🧠 What do you think—coincidence, or a warning we shouldn’t ignore?
#BlackMonday #1987Crash #S&P500 #MarketCrash #SP500 #HistoryRepeats #TechnicalAnalysis
Typical ABC on SPY generally means a rally back upWe should see some short term relief. This is a place to buy oversold stocks after todays gap down.
S&P 500 Long Term Bullish ContinuationWith the current uncertainty regarding the global economy and fears of recession, VANTAGE:SP500 has already dropped approx. 20% in the last few weeks.
However, currently price has retraced to the long term support trend line which perfectly aligns with the 2020 top, turning it into an attractive S&R level where price could find support.
Even if price does not find support here, current market price is still a very good accumulation area for long term buyers and investors!
Bear With Me: When AI Spending disturbs the hibernationSpent too much time coding and cycling today, so no time for a video.
Now we know for sure: it was a deeper correction, and it’s indeed too close to a bear market to be ignored. What's next?
I think the tariff war merely anticipated something that was bound to happen sooner or later: the AI bubble burst. For me, that explains why the NASDAQ entered the bear market first. Big tech was very bold in announcing billions of dollars in AI spending, yet many investors—mostly clueless about what this means for future growth—weren’t ready to accept it.
However, the Trump maneuver isn’t straightforward and could lead to real complications. Without diving into macro analysis (which I admit is beyond my expertise), here are some scenarios derived from the chart:
A – We bounce off the confluence of two major supports: the ascending wedge, the lateral from the 2021/2022 top, and the AVWAP anchored there. It’s a real possibility that we could simply bounce from here and reach a new ATH. However, even in this scenario, I doubt we’ll see the sun before the dark. The AI bubble has to burst before the real winners in that race can show their value. So, we may experience a blow-off top, only to return to bear market territory—possibly by the end of the year or next year.
B – We lose this critical support and head for the hills.
C – We bounce off the next level down and march back up (very unlikely, in my opinion).
D – We complete a bear market with over a 50% correction. The downside could be harsh, with many whipsaws and false hopes along the way.
I’ve never been this bearish in my life. Yet, I remain very bullish on AI. I’m at least 10x more productive with AI, and I believe everyone will be—and so will every company making the right moves. That will create amazing opportunities for traders.
But until then… brace yourself.
This is a test on SPX500Short thesis for SPX500
🚨 Market Alert: SPX500 Approaching Critical Zone
(April 6, 2025)
Volatility (VIX) just surged to 45—markets are feeling significant fear. This creates high-quality swing-trading opportunities.
🎯 Why this area is important:
Key Support Flip: Previous strong weekly resistance could now act as critical support.
High-Timeframe Imbalance: SPX500 is retesting the exact demand zone that launched the powerful rally from October 2022 → February 2024.
50% Fibonacci Level: Perfect retracement to the midpoint of the entire 2022–2024 bullish leg.
⚠️ What I'm watching for (No-Chase Method):
✅ Lower-timeframe liquidity sweeps + Break of Structure (BOS) as confirmation.
✅ Volume spikes indicating smart-money engagement.
✅ Signs of VIX easing (below ~35), reinforcing bullish reversal thesis.
SPX500 eyes on 5668: Key Resistance before Trump Tariff newsSPX500 might be in "sell the rumor, buy the news" mode.
But the bounce has just hit a major fib (of its Covid wave).
If the news is bearish, this would be a perfect top to drop.
===================================================
SPX - 12 year sideways Bear Market?This is just an idea. Noticed a bit of a pattern. Tell me it isn't true. The recessionary periods in 73' and 08' times were very similar to what is happening today. Inflation being key.
SPX Important update: Crash of 200pnts on MondayThree days back I had warned of a crash which did materialise beyond my expectation.
Today again based on the same VP analysis and additionally major trendline break principal I am predicting a 200pnts crash on Monday as we have enter a major low volume region. I hope I am wrong for the sake of all those who are still invested
The market achieved the first target of green trendline break and is now touching the red trendline. Since the price is close to the LVN's another crash is extremely high probability. Had it been near a HVN, I would expect a bounce. The next target coincides with the 2023 Oct bottom. But 4800 (peak of 2022) could offer some support and then 4120
Major trendline break principle is: when a major trendline is broken the price will mirror the rise and fall an equal distance from the breakpoint as from the high to the breakpoint. Check my related post where I show many such cases
S&P 500 Records Largest Weekly Decline Since 2020The S&P 500 Index has suffered its steepest two-day drop since the pandemic crash in March 2020. On April 4th, 2025, the benchmark index closed at 5,074.08, down 322.44 points (5.97%). This marks a loss of $5.4 trillion in market value across just two sessions.
The sell-off followed comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. He warned that President Donald Trump’s new tariffs could lead to persistently higher inflation. All 11 sectors in the S&P 500 closed in the red. Only 14 stocks remained positive as Nvidia and Apple fell more than 7%, while Tesla dropped 10%.
The Nasdaq 100 Index plunged 6.1%, confirming a bear market after losing over 20% from its February peak. The rapid decline mirrors the speed seen during the 2020 COVID crash and the 2000 dot-com bust.
President Trump announced sweeping tariffs on U.S. imports on Wednesday. These include a 10% general tariff and higher rates on dozens of countries. China responded by imposing a 34% levy on American goods. The tit-for-tat measures triggered fears of a full-scale global trade war.
Global markets reacted sharply. Investors pulled out of stocks and moved into safer assets like government bonds. The two-day loss of $5 trillion on the S&P 500 set a new record, surpassing the $3.3 trillion loss during March 2020.
Rick Meckler, of Cherry Lane Investments, said the escalation is now deeper than many investors expected. The initial belief that tariffs were a negotiation tactic has now given way to serious market concerns.
Technical Analysis: Price Approaching Key Support Zones. Will They Hold?
The S&P 500 has shown a bearish trend since early 2025. Several weekly candles have closed bearish, confirming a strong downtrend. Currently, the index is trading lower toward a key ascending trendline near $4,930.
The $4,930 support level may offer short-term support. A bounce from here could see a brief recovery. However, the sentiment remains bearish without strong economic data or policy changes.
Further Downside Risk If Support Fails
Another horizontal support sits at $4,780. If both support levels fail, the index may fall toward the $4,500 psychological zone. This level is crucial as it marks a long-term support and potential reversal point.
At present, bearish momentum dominates, with much strength coming from trade war fears. Unless data shifts investor sentiment, the downtrend may persist.
SP500 Rebalance. Expecting bounce at 4800.US economic policy has created uncertainty in the market.
I don´t expect a market crash however, I do expect a rebalance of price action at 4800.
SPX keeping it simple looking at the weekly chart on SPX. Using fib and basic wave theory.
There is plenty of panic in the markets right now besides one guy.
WARREN Buffet he's looking for opportunity.
The simple way to break it down is a 50% retracement from Oct 22 low to the ATH is the top of the post covid high. looking at in an Elliot wave theory 5 wave
1 is our post covid high on Jan 3 2022. Then we head to the second wave. this wave ended in October 22 the 3rd wave has ended on Feb 18th 2025. we are currently in the 4th wave. this is a correction phase. Wave 4 is 14.6%, 23.6%, or 38.2% of wave 3 but no more than 50%. it is typically 38.2% of wave 3.
Wave five will come or we free fall.
Enter a bear market and ride it out. Buffet said this people do it wrong they buy high and sell low. yes, the turmoil is high but there is always those who will be scared and run
or you find the right place to buy and take the chance.
Trump is a business man and he's doing business. he's playing chess when everyone else is playing checkers. once the 9 trillion debt that is due for refinance is taken care of do you really think he will let the market crash and him and his goons loose money? He stated he is doing this on purpose. Bring interest rates down and stocks down. Equals good buying opportunities
Hold tight it will be a wild ride.
Institutional Demand: SP500 longsHey,
Trump’s April 2025 tariffs triggered a global market crash, with the Dow plunging and the Nasdaq entering a bear market. China retaliated, raising recession fears. News warns of rising unemployment, inflation, and a major economic slowdown.
So what does this mean for us as traders and investors?
Volatility equals opportunity.
The S&P 500 is approaching a strong demand zone and trendline. I’m not a fan of trying to catch the exact bottom — just have a consistent plan to scale in, buy once at the zone or do it in chunks. But with prices this low, it’s a great time to consider adding more. Data shows, every major crash has rebounded sooner than expected for the past 100 years.
Great opportunities where fear makes people miss it.
Kind regards,
Max
Corrective waves and trade war at the same time.Even before the trade wars started, I think the uptrend was over.
* The purpose of my graphic drawings is purely educational.
* What i write here is not an investment advice. Please do your own research before investing in any asset.
* Never take my personal opinions as investment advice, you may lose your money.
Geopolitics, Rates, and Risk: Why 1987 Is Back on the RadarThe current mix of geopolitical tensions, policy uncertainty, and fragile market sentiment brings to mind the setup ahead of October '87.
Without stabilizing signal, especially from the U.S. administration this weekend, the risk of a sharp correction is not negligible.
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$SPX monthly chart and next downside targets Important levels to monitor for support on SP:SPX we are now at monthly trend-line support from bottom of 2022 to bottom of 2023. Next support will be top of January 2022 which is 4791 and trendline from Covid 2020 lows and 2022 lows. If it breaks next 4589-4500. We may first go up and test 20 month moving average around 5260.
Opening (IRA): SPX May 16th 5000/5030/5785/5815 Iron Condor... for a 10.45 credit.
Comments: High IVR. After having taken small profit on the setup I put on before "Liberation Day," back in with a more symmetric setup in a higher IV environment.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect: 19.55
Max Profit: 10.45
ROC at Max: 53.45%
50% Max: 5.23
ROC at 50% Max: 26.73%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, roll in untested side on side test, manage at 21 DTE.
More down for SPX500USDHi traders,
Could an outlook be more accurate then this? Last week I said that SPX500USD could see more downside. I also annotated the liquidity on the chart where we could see a reaction.
And what did price? It took the liquidity, made a correction up (orange wave 2) and dropped.
Did I know the news before? No of course not. This is the power of Wave analysis.
If you've followed my outlook, you could have made much profit.
Now for next week we could see a small correction up and more downside for this pair.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for a small correction up on a lower timeframe to trade shorts.
If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with Wave analysis, then please make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
S&P 500 Market Analysis 04/05/2025The S&P 500 is currently undergoing a significant correction, having dropped approximately 17% from its all-time high. This decline coincides with renewed policy rhetoric from the U.S. President, particularly surrounding trade tariffs, which has historically triggered market uncertainty. This scenario echoes past events, where similar pullbacks followed a peak in parabolic price action. Notably, in 2022, after a parabolic surge, the S&P 500 dropped 27%, and in 2018, the index saw a 21% decline after a similar spike. These historical patterns suggest that the longer and more extended the parabolic rise, the deeper the eventual correction tends to be.
From a technical standpoint, the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has consistently acted as a reliable support level during past downturns. In both 2018 and 2022, the S&P 500 retraced down to this EMA before finding a bottom and beginning its recovery. Currently, the 200-week EMA sits around the 4,740 level, which could serve as a critical support zone that the index may attempt to retest before any meaningful rebound occurs.
In addition to this technical level, the SilentTrader Indicator—a proprietary tool analyzing multiple timeframes—has signaled bearish momentum across all major timeframes. The indicator is showing selling signals on the weekly, daily, and intraday charts, reinforcing the idea that the market remains under heavy downward pressure. The alignment of these bearish signals across multiple timeframes suggests that the S&P 500 could continue to face selling pressure in the near term.
Considering these factors, the current correction appears to be far from over. With macroeconomic uncertainties and the potential for continued tariff-related concerns, a retest of the 4,740 level—or possibly even lower—remains a likely scenario. Traders and investors should remain cautious and consider tightening risk management strategies until there is a clearer indication of stabilization or a trend reversal.
#SP500 #stockmarket #forextrading #forex #cryptocurrency #bitcoin #ethereum
