US500 trade ideas
S&P500 Historic reversals like this delivered even +100% gains!The S&P500 (SPX) is making a remarkable bullish reversal and on the monthly (1M) chart is even more evident due to April's candle, which almost closed flat leaving a huge wick under it, a feat we've never seen in recent history.
What we have seen however since the 2008 Housing Crisis, is every time the index hits (or approaches) its 1M MA50 (blue trend-line), it reverses to an incredible rally, technically a new Bull Cycle.
This is what happened in April, the index came a breath away from the 1M MA50 and delivered the strongest monthly bullish reversal of our time. On top of that, it hit and rebounded exactly on the former All Time High Resistance, which held and turned into Support. All such Resistance levels since 2008 have held. Also note that the only time the 1M MA50 really broke (closed the month below it), was during the March 2020 COVID flash-crash, which is a non-technical event/ irregularity and still it rebounded on the 1M MA100 (green trend-line).
The minimum long-term rise that SPX had after such correction was +76.20% and the maximum +104.17%. Assuming the minimum price increase for the current emerging rise, we expect the index to hit 8300 by late 2027.
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Could the US500 be setting up for a bounce?Hello,
The US500 is trading near the trend line, a key area where technical investors will be looking for a bounce back. While the current market remains choppy due to tariffs from the US president, technical analysis does offer us key areas where we can look for entries going forward.
What is certain is that this is not the time to panic and sell all your held positions. As always, during moments like these composure + a clear plan are your best line of defence. Probabilistic thinking as well can go a long way in identifying great opportunities. We’re all dealing with known and unknown variables now, and there’s no shame in saying, "I don’t know."
For me I see opportunities in the S&P especially because the news is already out. Additionally, we are coming into earnings season when the market is at the bottom. Companies that show resilience will attract early investors and the index will bounce back. So please keep your long-term view.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
SPX sideways for 4 weeksExpecting the main indices will experience some sideways motions for the next +/- 4 weeks. Top might be between 5,950 and 6,000. This doesn't mean ALL stock will be sideways. *(Defense sector seems very bullish)
Ultimately after wave 2 is complete Markets will have a good consolation / launching pad for Wave 3.
Bearish Alt-Bat Pattern Completed on SPX | Potential PullbackOANDA:SPX500USD
The Index is approaching a critical technical juncture as a bearish Alt-Bat harmonic pattern* completes on the 4-hour chart. This formation, finalized at the 113% Fibonacci extension level at $5,924 , signals a potential shift in market sentiment after a sustained period of upward momentum. Price action recently touched a new high at $5,924 , with immediate fractal resistance forming just above at $5,927 .
Despite this bullish extension, momentum indicators are flashing warnings. Both RSI and MACD are showing clear signs of bearish divergence, indicating that upward strength may be waning. When momentum weakens while prices continue rising, it often suggests that the underlying trend is becoming unstable.
A decisive break below $5,849 would likely confirm the pattern’s bearish implications and open the door to a corrective move. In that scenario, we will be watching for potential support near $5,579 , a previously tested level. If selling pressure continues, the next downside target could be around $5,500 , aligning with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the projected Alt-Bat target zone.
* This setup doesn't guarantee a reversal, but it significantly raises the probability of a pullback in the short term. Price confirmation below key levels will be essential to validate the pattern and assess the strength of any emerging downtrend.
Happy Trading,
André Cardoso
[𝟬𝟱/𝟭𝟮] 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗹𝘆 𝗦𝗣𝗫 𝗚𝗘𝗫 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗯𝗼𝗼𝗸🔍 IF/THEN QUICK GAMMA PLAYBOOK
IF > 5825 THEN path to 5900 → stall/profit-taking likely
IF > 5900 THEN path to first 5950, then 6000 → gamma squeeze extension zone
IF < 5825 THEN path to 5700 → test of transition zone support
Chop Zone: — re-entry = short-term balance/testing zone
IF < 5700 THEN path to 5500 → gamma flush / dealer unwind risk
🧭 𝗘𝗫𝗧𝗘𝗡𝗗𝗘𝗗 𝗭𝗢𝗡𝗘 𝗠𝗔𝗣/b]
✅ Gamma Flip Level
5700 → This is the confirmed Gamma Flip level = High Volatility Zone = HVL. We are comfortably above it, confirming positive gamma environment.
🧱 Major Call Walls / Resistance to upside from here
5900 → Significant call resistance zone (highlighted across GEX, profile, and /matrix command). 5825–5900 = Current rally zone → expected stall at 5900 (Profit-taking zone)5950 → Next mid-large positive gamma wall to the upside, mid-station between mounts. Dealers short gamma, adding fuel to breakout.6000 → Positive Gamma squeeze continuation target. Gamma squeeze intensifies → likely extends to 6000.🟦 Transition / Chop Zone
5700–5825 → Previous chop range. Retrace could test this before renewed upside.Currently outside and breaking up from this zone, indicating trend initiation.
Balance zone from prior structure.
Expect fade setups if price dips back in.
Needs catalyst or strong sell flow to re-enter meaningfully.
🛡️ Major Put Supports to the downside
5700 → = HVL, also aligned with pTrans and Put support.Dealer unwind risk, downside opens.5500 → Key level if the 5700 zone fails — “total denial zone” of current FOMO.
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This week’s SPX setup remains decisively bullish from a gamma perspective. The GEX profile shows strong positive gamma, with institutional and dealer hedging flows firmly positioned to support continued upside—especially into Friday’s OPEX. The environment is ideal for a controlled melt-up: volatility is softening, implied volatility is trending lower, and there’s no sign of panic in the options market.
Put pricing skew is also declining, which suggests reduced fear and a shift toward more aggressive call buying—another sign of bullish sentiment. Dealer positioning implies that any upward momentum is likely to be chased and hedged into, reinforcing the trend.
However, traders should stay alert: if SPX slips back below 5825, we may see a pause or retracement back into the 5700–5825 transition zone. Only a decisive break below 5700 would flip the gamma regime back to negative and open the door to real downside volatility.
S&P500 - The bottom we have been waiting for!The S&P500 - TVC:SPX - officially created the bottom:
(click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻)
This month we officially saw one of the craziest stock market fakeouts of the past decade. With a drop and reversal rally of about +15%, the S&P500 is about to even close with a green monthly candle, which then indicates that the stock market bottom was created.
Levels to watch: $120, $250
Keep your long term vision!
Philip (BasicTrading)
S&P 500 Breaks Out — Trump, Tariffs & Bullish Island PatternDonald Trump has mentioned the US stock market in every meeting he has held in the past few days, which has caused the US stock market indices , including the S&P500 Index ( SP:SPX ), to rise:
"Better go out and buy stocks now".
President Donald Trump told a crowd in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday that the markets are just getting started. “It’s going to get a lot higher,” he said, right as the S&P 500 posted its first gain since late February.
But one of the main reasons for the increase in the S&P 500 Index and US stocks is The United States has dropped its tariffs on Chinese goods to 30% , down from a brutal 145% , while China is slashing its own duties on US imports to just 10% , temporarily, for the next 90 days .
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Now let's take a look at the S&P 500 Index chart on the daily time frame .
S&P500 Index managed to break the Resistance zone($5,737_$5,506) and 21_SMA(Weekly) by Breakaway Gap .
In terms of Classic Technical Analysis , the S&P500 Index has managed to form a Bullish Long Island Pattern , and this pattern is one of the continuing patterns and will be a sign of the continuation of the S&P500 Index's upward trend .
In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that the S&P500 index has completed the corrective wave and is in new impulsive waves , which could cause a new All-Time High(ATH) to form.
I expect the S&P500 index to increase by at least +5% as it approaches the Uptrend line , and we will see the possibility of a new ATH .
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
S&P 500 Index Analyze (SPX500USD), Daily time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
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S&P500 Uptrend pause supported at 5925India Trade Deal: Trump claims India offered a zero-tariff trade deal with the U.S., but no official confirmation yet. He also said he told Apple CEO Tim Cook to stop building plants in India, despite Apple shifting production there to reduce reliance on China.
Iran Nuclear Talks: Iran may be open to giving up nuclear weapons in exchange for immediate sanctions relief, per NBC. Oil prices fell on speculation this could boost supply.
Russia-Ukraine Talks: Peace progress looks unlikely as Putin sent only low-level officials to talks in Turkey. Trump said he might attend “if appropriate,” but downplayed chances.
Overall: Trump is emphasizing trade and foreign policy strength, while global tensions continue to shape markets and diplomacy.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 5925
Resistance Level 2: 5970
Resistance Level 3: 6000
Support Level 1: 5790
Support Level 2: 5730
Support Level 3: 5685
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Deadcat bounce?We have pierced through the 0.786 fib retracement which is a sign of strength but it’s too early to call this the start of a bull run. We could quite easily fall back down if we fail to break the RSI resistance which is not too far away. I favour a break of the RSI as it will be the fourth attempt, but if we fail I intend to close out some of my positions to stay on the right side of risk. There’s a lot of greed and fomo entering the market again so I’m certainly not looking to fomo into more stocks here.
Not financial advice, do what’s best for you.
SPX500 H4 | Potential bullish bounceSPX500 is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 5,789.71 which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 5,630.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 5,994.08 which is a multi-swing-high resistance.
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SP500 Waiting the right time to sellSP500 has reached a possible reversal area on a daily timeframe. On lower timeframe, we can expect a sideline moves for the next hours with a possible short entry around 12 (NY Time). The target is half of the current open market gap.
This is a mid term trade based on graphic and statistical analysis. I usually operate on smaller timeframe with scalp trades, that can't be posted here.
SPX : A Classic Blow-Off Top FormationWhat we are seeing now is NOT healthy. The rise is not due to a great economy. This rise is due to great stress in the system - no fundamentals, just positioning, leverage, and illusion. All the clues are there for all to see.
And when this time it collapses, it would be UGLY.
This is another GOOD time to SELL.
Good luck.
Tariffs Shocked the World, But Look What Happened NextTrump's “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariff announcement triggered a sharp selloff in the S&P 500 on the 2nd April. A classic policy shock! But the market has since clawed back every point.
So what now? Let’s break it down by strategy.
🔎 Long-Term Investors: Stay the Course
1) This recovery reinforces one truth: When you own quality businesses, Volatility ≠ Risk. Policy creates opportunity, not exit signals.
2) Stick with great companies, buy on fear, and ignore the noise. The next 10 years won’t be won by panic.
⚡ Momentum Traders: Technical Reversal Delivered
1) S&P 500 bounced above its 30-day MA. With the May 12th’s bullish gap (post temporary tariff pause) confirming the trend shift.
2) This was a textbook momentum setup. But if you didn’t plan for the whipsaw, you missed the edge.
📈 What This Means Now
Short-term volatility is likely to continue as tariffs, rates, and elections are all on the table.
Watch for pullbacks into structure and keep risk tight as news-driven moves will be fast and brutal.
Choose your timeframe. Respect the trend. Don’t confuse noise with signal.
The edge now isn’t in prediction — it’s in preparation.
S&P 500 INDEX ,,, Possible pullback Uptrend
Needless to say, every rising will be risky without a correction (either price or time).
After about three months of upward moving with just a small time correction, personally I am waiting for a correction to get new buying positions. In addition, some of the companies have prices rising dramatically and this proves that having a small corrective wave is vital for the market. Around 5800 can be a good place for a correction and a pullback. totally wait for another sure trigger for entry or adding new buying positions.
Good luck.