S&P 500S&P 500 like NDQ 100 is about to dip 35%
Has similar justification with NDQ 100 although its bearish divergence is much more pronounced.
US500 trade ideas
The Magnificent Seven Stocks: A Stellar 2024 and Uncertain 2025The Magnificent Seven Stocks: A Stellar 2024 and an Uncertain 2025
The Magnificent Seven is a term used to describe the seven largest technology companies that dominate the global economy through their scale, innovation, and high market capitalisation.
These companies are often key drivers of the US stock market, and in 2024 (as in 2023), they confirmed their leadership, with most outperforming the broader market indices. Below are approximate performance estimates for the end of 2024:
→ S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen): +26%
→ Apple (AAPL): +38%
→ Microsoft (MSFT): +18%
→ Amazon (AMZN): +52%
→ Alphabet (GOOGL): +42%
→ Meta Platforms (META): +43%
→ Tesla (TSLA): +87%
→ Nvidia (NVDA): +189%
What does 2025 hold for the Magnificent Seven?
Motley Fool offers a cautious outlook for the coming year, suggesting that some of these leaders may run out of steam due to inflated stock prices relative to their intrinsic value and profit forecasts.
Zacks analysts have examined the fundamentals and identified three stocks from the Magnificent 7 that are worth considering for value investors:
1. Alphabet (GOOGL)
Alphabet has the lowest price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio among the Magnificent 7, standing at 23.9. While this doesn’t say it is a value stock (value stocks typically have a P/E below 15), it is relatively cheap compared to its peers. Moreover, Alphabet now pays dividends.
2. Meta Platforms (META)
Meta Platforms remains attractively valued with a forward P/E of just 25.8. It also boasts a relatively low price/earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio of 1.3 (a PEG below 1.0 indicates a reasonable price relative to expected profit growth). The 1.3 PEG is appealing, and like Alphabet, Meta has started paying dividends.
3. Amazon.com (AMZN)
Once aiming to be the "store for everything," Amazon has expanded far beyond this with its AWS division, Whole Foods, sports and entertainment programming on Prime, and even chip manufacturing. Amazon has the lowest price-to-sales (P/S) ratio among the Magnificent Seven, at 3.8. Although a P/S below 1.0 is typically considered attractive, Amazon remains appealing to investors. For comparison, Microsoft’s P/S ratio is 13.1, while Nvidia’s is 29.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice
S&P 500 Technical Analysis: Eyeing a Year-End HighS&P 500 Technical Analysis
The S&P 500 maintains bullish momentum as long as it trades above 6022. The next bullish target is 6099, indicating consolidation between 6022 and 6099 until a breakout occurs.
A breakout above 6099 could result in a new record high before the end of the year.
For a bearish trend toward 5971, a 4-hour candle must close below 6022.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 6022
Resistance Levels: 6053, 6099, 6142
Support Levels: 5971, 5936, 5919
Trend Outlook:
Consolidation between 6022 and 6099
Bullish trend as long as the price remains above 6022
SPX Broad Outline Dec 2024Likely entering the Vol expansion regime. From a potential high, peak to trough min 20% to spike below 4820 within the next 2 years. Usually, the cycle low is made by mid 2 year, so it means 1.5 years of danger ahead
Planning SPX Longs into A Break Lower SPX made the top off the 2.61 and today on the news of rate cuts it slammed to the implied target level for that.
Hit targets on a lot of my shorts today. Have some extremely deep OTMs still running but these are a nominal part of my risk and just there to benefit from a super rejection of the macro 4.23 fib.
In terms of nearer term swing assessment, we're now getting close to the level I think we'd be likely to find support if this is a bull move that is just having a flash crash correction.
Planning to start picking up longs if we spike down closer to 5800. Will likely buy deep OTM calls at this price if we hit it.
Broadly speaking risk off on my positions at the moment. Banked most of my profits. Don't plan to do much trading the rest of the year.
Do plan to do a lot of trade plan prepping for decision at the macro inflection point.
Whatever way it goes, my hypothesis is we're going to see faster and faster markets going forward. Great times to be a trader. I want to make sure I'm prepped to benefit from any of the "Known" outcomes that fit inside my strats.
Reversal Trading Strategy Using GOLDEN RSI Divergence Indicator Overview
Reversal trading strategies capitalize on identifying turning points in the market where a potential reversal from a downtrend to an uptrend, or vice versa, occurs. In this post, I will introduce a strategy based on divergence patterns spotted with a custom RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator.
This method enhances traditional RSI analysis by making divergence detection clearer and actionable. By combining it with a strong understanding of price action, traders can gain an edge in timing market reversals effectively.
Key Features of This Strategy
Divergence Analysis: The core of this strategy is to identify bullish or bearish divergences between the RSI and price action.
Custom RSI Indicator: The custom RSI indicator simplifies divergence detection by highlighting critical levels and marking divergence points directly on the chart.
Confluence with Price Action: Reversals are validated using trendlines, support/resistance zones, and candlestick patterns.
Chart Example: S&P 500 Index
In the attached chart:
Bullish Divergence:
The price made lower lows, while the RSI made higher lows (indicated by green arrows).
This divergence signaled weakening bearish momentum and potential reversal.
Entry Point:
A clear breakout above the trendline validated the reversal.
Enter long positions near this breakout level.
Stop Loss:
Place the stop loss just below the recent swing low.
Target Profit:
Aim for the next major resistance zone or use a fixed risk-reward ratio (e.g., 1:2 or 1:3).
How to Spot Divergence
Bullish Divergence:
Price forms lower lows.
RSI forms higher lows.
This indicates waning bearish pressure and a potential upward reversal.
Bearish Divergence:
Price forms higher highs.
RSI forms lower highs.
This suggests weakening bullish pressure and a possible downward reversal.
Why This Strategy Works
Strength of RSI Divergence
RSI divergence reflects the loss of momentum in the current trend. By detecting it early, traders can position themselves ahead of major reversals.
Combining Confluence Factors
The success rate of this strategy increases when RSI divergence aligns with other technical factors like:
Horizontal support or resistance levels.
Trendline breaks.
Volume spikes.
Practical Tips for Using This Strategy
Use Multiple Timeframes: Confirm divergence signals on higher timeframes for stronger setups.
Avoid Overtrading: Only act on clear and validated divergence setups to minimize false signals.
Risk Management: Never risk more than 1-2% of your trading capital on a single trade.
Conclusion
This custom RSI-based divergence strategy is a powerful tool to identify high-probability reversal setups. When combined with proper risk management and confluence analysis, it can significantly improve trading outcomes.
Start experimenting with this strategy on your demo account and refine your approach before deploying it in live markets. If you have questions or want to discuss this further, feel free to comment below!
Market SnapshotMUST READ!!!!
All credits to Avi Gilburt and his team
www.elliottwavetrader.net
“Observers’ job, as they see it, is simply to identify which external events caused whatever price changes occur. When news seems to coincide sensibly with market movement, they presume a causal relationship. When news doesn’t fit, they attempt to devise a cause-and-effect structure to make it fit. When they cannot even devise a plausible way to twist the news into justifying market action, they chalk up the market moves to “psychology,” which means that, despite a plethora of news and numerous inventive ways to interpret it, their imaginations aren’t prodigious enough to concoct a credible causal story.
Most of the time it is easy for observers to believe in news causality. Financial markets fluctuate constantly, and news comes out constantly, and sometimes the two elements coincide well enough to reinforce commentators’ mental bias towards mechanical cause and effect. When news and the market fail to coincide, they shrug and disregard the inconsistency. Those operating under the mechanics paradigm in finance never seem to see or care that these glaring anomalies exist.”- Robert Prechter
Complete analysis - shooortS&P 500
Bias:
• Weekly – Uptrend
• Daily – Downtrend
• 4H – Uptrend
• 1H – Uptrend
Fair Value Gap’s.
• 5,740 – 5,830 on the daily
• 6,038 – 5,934 on the daily, filled in by last candle
• 5,979 – 6,016 on the 2H, (23 Dec 15.30 – 24 Dec 11.30)
Order Block:
• 6,037 – 6,063 on the 1H, (17 Dec 15.30 – 18 Dec 11.30)
• 5,892 – 5,840 on the 30M (19 dec 15.30 – 20 Dec 09.30)
Liquidity pool:
• 5,700
• 5,854 (Got hit at 09.30 and Bullishly swept from 09.50 ending in a Premium short with the use of Equilibrium at 12.00)
• 6,102
I think we are going to se it draw back in to the FVG that the last three 2H candles created before then testing the Order Block at 6,037 – 6,063 and procced to hunt the liquidity laying at 6,103 since it’s on a bullish rally on the daily since 20 Dec after hitting Liquidity laying there.
Before dipping all the way down to the FVG at 5,740 – 5,830.
And I think it will go on to the Premium buy side since the market would probably want to hit the Liquidity laying at 5,700.
Though I really doubt it is going to hit that since we are in an weekly uptrend.
From the previous reactions of all the building block I showed it seems it will still follow the same pattern if not any news shows up, I have showed prices reacting of previously named building blocks and then proceeded to predict it next moves based on that the market will continue that pattern.
Ideally the best entry for a short would in my opinion be at 6,102 and above after seeing a break of structure to the downside at the 15M chart.
I am pretty new to this so would love any feedback. You don’t agree with the analysis? Then please comment why so I could see you’re resoning.
SPX will go to 62201. On the daily chart, SPX is trading within an upward channel, with the MACD lines positioned above the zero line.
2. SPX has risen for three consecutive days, breaking through the key 6000 level. The next resistance is expected near 6100. If a pullback stabilizes around 5982, it could push toward a new high of 6220 (the 6220 level corresponds to a Fibonacci retracement).
3. Once SPX makes a new high above 6220, it could signal a potential pullback, with support expected around 5700.
SPX-When will the new high be on the chart?On the daily chart, the uptrend bounced from an intact support around 5870, which is around the 50 moving average and the 0.236 fibonacci. Local peak is 6100, this is the first resistance, next is 6200-6300, the top of the ascending channel. Until then, you can rest several times. After the ascent of the last day, there may be a few days of calm until you gather strength. The rise would be supported if the Macd histogram turned positive and the blue macd band crossed the orange signal band from below.
Santa Clause is Coming to Town - End of Year PreviewWe got more action than I thought we would today for sure, makes things more interesting. There's a lot of bottom signals I'm seeing right now. Probably best to wait a bit to see what happens in early Jan, but here's my thoughts moving forward.
Year 2025 and Beyond: Where to Place Your Bets?S&P 500:
US indices may continue their upward trend until the first quarter of 2025. The ultimate target appears to be above 6300, where they may peak and begin a significant correction. A global stock sell-off could potentially trigger a stock market crash similar to that of 2008.
India's Nifty 50:
India's Nifty 50 may find support around the 23,000–22,700 range and resume its upward movement in the final fifth wave, targeting a peak near 29,000. The Nifty 50 is likely to follow a trend similar to the S&P 500. The bullish cycle that began in 2009 is expected to conclude near the 29,000 level. Subsequently, a significant sell-off in Indian indices could trigger a major bear market, potentially erasing up to 50% of market capitalization from its peak.
Gold:
Gold may continue its consolidation for another month or two. A final surge toward the $3,000–$3,100 range is expected to mark the end of the rally that began in December 2015 at the $1,050 level. However, the bear market in equities is unlikely to spare even the perceived safe haven, leading to a pullback in gold prices as well.
Brent Crude:
Since March 2020, Brent crude experienced a remarkable rise, surging from $15 per barrel to $139 per barrel by March 2022. Over the past 33 months, it has already corrected by more than 47%. Brent crude is still expected to decline further, potentially reaching $50 per barrel within the next 3 to 6 months. However, the current inflationary trend could drive Brent prices beyond $160 per barrel later in 2025, before eventually succumbing to a deflationary trend that may persist for several years.
US Dollar Index:
The US Dollar Index peaked at around 114 in September 2022. Since then, it declined to 100 by July 2023 before starting to rise again in a corrective A-B-C pattern, forming part of a larger (A)-(B)-(C) decline. The Wave C of (B) is expected to conclude near 109, followed by another decline toward 98 by the first half of 2025. However, a renewed bullish trend in the US Dollar Index could reinforce the "Cash is King" narrative during a global equity market downturn.
USD/INR:
The bullish trend in USD/INR, which began in January 2008 at the 39 level, has seen the Indian Rupee weaken by over 60% against the US Dollar over the past 17 years. In the short term, USD/INR may peak around 86. However, the Rupee is likely to weaken further, reaching 90 against the US Dollar by the second quarter of 2025.
US Govt. 10 years bond yield:
The long-term yield on U.S. Government 10-year bond's yield indicates rising interest rates for this decade. In the short term, the yield may ease to 3%-2.6% by the second quarter of 2025. However, fears of a U.S. Government default could push the yield to 10% or higher over the next couple of years. The "Bond Ghost," along with a global equity rout, may haunt investors again in 2025-2026.
Bitcoin (BTC):
Bitcoin's bullish trend may continue until the first quarter of 2025, albeit at a slower pace. BTC still has the potential to reach around $115k-$120k, concluding the bullish run that began in November 2022 from the level of $15,500. Over the past decade and a half, BTC has significantly outpaced any other asset class globally. However, global risk aversion, which may start with an initial global equity market sell-off, could pause Bitcoin's bullish journey for the rest of 2025. Before the end of 2025, BTC might lose up to 50% of its value from its peak.
In the longer run, however, BTC has the potential to become the most valuable asset class globally, even after experiencing a 50% erosion in its value.
Potential bullish rise?S&P500 has reacted off the resistance level which is an overlap resistance and could rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 5,995.10
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
Stop loss: 5,936.66
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
Take profit: 6,110.04
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lies up with the 100% Fibonacci projection.
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US500 ShortUS500
SHORT
💎Please don't be greedy
ENTRY : yellow point
TP : blue lines
SL :
below red line for LONG position
above red line for SHORT position
⛔️INSTRUCTIONS 1:
Please respect the yellow entry point, otherwise you risk entering too early before my strategy or too far, thus reducing gains and aggravating losses in the event of a stop loss
⛔️INSTRUCTIONS 2:
For risk and money management:
5% of your wallet for LEV X ≤20
And
3% of your wallet for LEV X ≥ 20
S&P500: Recovery mode activated. Next stop 6,200.S&P500 turned neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 54.702, MACD = 16.670, ADX = 24.717) as it rebounded near the 1D MA100, which happened to be just under the bottom of the long term Channel Up and has recovered more than 50% of last week's correction. In the meantime, the 1D RSI is making a bullish reversal idential to the last two bottoms. The two prior bullish waves of the Channel Up topped on the 1.786 Fibonacci extension. That is our target (TP = 6,200).
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SPX 's bearish retest#spx SP:SPX index is now testing the trendline resistance zone, if this bearish retest succeeds there' ll likely be more dumps in market in LTF. Not financial advice.
S&P 500 Holding Within Ascending ChannelChart Analysis:
The S&P 500 Index remains firmly within its ascending channel (green zone), with the current price rebounding from the channel's midline near 6,006.5. The bullish structure remains intact, supported by key moving averages.
1️⃣ Ascending Channel:
Price continues to respect the channel boundaries, with recent consolidation near the midline and potential for further upside toward the upper boundary.
2️⃣ Moving Averages:
50-day SMA (blue): Positioned at 5,938.1, acting as immediate support and reinforcing the bullish short-term trend.
200-day SMA (red): Positioned at 5,547.4, providing robust long-term support for the broader trend.
3️⃣ Momentum Indicators:
RSI: At 52.74, indicating neutral momentum and room for price movement in either direction.
MACD: Positive but flattening, suggesting momentum remains supportive of the uptrend, though caution is warranted.
What to Watch:
A continued bounce higher could target the channel's upper boundary near 6,100–6,150, while a failure to hold above the 50-day SMA could shift focus to the lower boundary near 5,800.
Momentum signals from the RSI and MACD will be crucial in determining whether the current bounce has the strength to sustain a move higher.
The S&P 500 remains structurally bullish within its ascending channel, with key support and resistance levels offering clear guidance for traders.
-MW
SPX since 1877 & 1896 & 1932-2021 & beyond. Waddup MM !!! 9 Years & 18 months. I choose the first largest three crashes as a base for cycles nothing more nothing less.
WADDUP MARKET MAKERS, CAN YOU SHARE THE PROBABILITIES OF YOUR ALGOS ;-) .
Blue adjusted for time = Action in June. Red and green = Action in July . It is like a
puzzle. Waddup MMs share the knowledge.
SP50 / Bullish Momentum and Key Levels to WatchS&P 500 Technical Analysis
The price retested the bearish correction we mentioned earlier, then pushed upward again and continued toward 6022.
The S&P 500 has a bullish momentum aiming for 6022. To confirm the bullish area toward 6099, a 4-hour candle should close above 6022.
Otherwise, as long as the price trades below 6022, it will likely oscillate between 6022 and 5971 until a breakout occurs.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 5995
Resistance Levels: 6022, 6053, 6099
Support Levels: 5971, 5936, 5919
Trend Outlook:
Consolidation: Between 6022 and 5971
Bullish Trend: Above 6022
Quick technical idea on S&P 500The EASYMARKETS:SPIUSD has been on a roller coaster ride lately. But the main question is, will we see a new all-time high by the end of this year.
Disclaimer:
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Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 12.24.2024🔮
⏰10:00am
Richmond Manufacturing Index
#trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting #investing
SPX annual price is far above 5 year moving averageIn 2025 there will be retreat definitely for SPX, to around 5500 or even 5000 points
US500US500 is in a possible distribution, which is a bearish pattern.
2025 will be more like a sideways action.
Good times for small caps!
