SPX : Where Where - according to the F
This is a continuation of the previous SELL idea. This time, we go into the details, where we can actually see price action moving in lock-step.
Lets make lots of money. Please keep the SL tight.
Good luck.
US500AUD trade ideas
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SPX - LONGWait for price to fill the gap. Once in the zone wait for bullish confirmation on the higher time frames for bulls to take over. TP set at previous highs.
SPY ready to continue its up-trend?!?Now that price has pulled back, we’ve seen a reaction from the daily 20 EMA, forming what resembles a hammer candlestick. This could signal that the uptrend may be ready to resume.
That said, Monday will be key. If the market continues to show strength, it may confirm a continuation to the upside. But if price drops instead, we could be in for a deeper pullback.
⚠️ Remember: just because we’re in an uptrend doesn’t mean the market can’t reverse. The market is unpredictable, and that’s why reacting to price behavior at each point of interest (POI) is so important.
Stay flexible, manage your risk, and trade what the market shows you, not what you expect.
SPY pull back startAs we can see, it appears that today marked the beginning of a pullback, with the price breaking below the trendline and dropping by 1.20%.
Interestingly, the price has now reached the 10 EMA, which often acts as dynamic support. From here, we need to remain patient — either waiting for a bullish reaction at this level or allowing the price to continue pulling back to a deeper point of interest (POI).
Based on how the market reacts at each POI, we can then begin to take action on the trades from our watchlist.
SPX headed for a correctionMoody's has downgraded US Debt. This news is a catalyst for a overdue correction (Or reversal?)
I published this script some days back. It can predict price inflection points very well
Based on the past behaviour, I can say we are heading for a correction technically and the fill the gap of last week
Has this strategy works for you ?I was quite surprised when one of my followers shared that buying into SPX is boring and has nothing much worthy of bragging rights in social media. Wait, you mean you are buying or selling just because you want to brag? For ego sake ? Value at ??????
Ok, so I am old school and are unlikely to notice stocks like POPMART or Nvidia for that matter. Some of my friends are just busy trading on small time frame of 1-5 mins daily on these stocks, it requires skills, eye power and definitely not for me.
If you had invested in SPX when I mentioned it here , here or here
When you are clear why you are buying and have the conviction that it will continue to pay you handsomely in the long term, then you have lesser headache of searching for quality companies like UNH which plunge so much lately ! Really, you are OK with it after the death of one CEO and then the next is resigning and then getting sued for fraud. Market first react to it be it truth or rumours and then self correct later, that is the brutal and hard to accept for many.
Consider the SPX index like a basket of different fruits that yield you good benefits in the long term. The probability of ALL these stocks or majority falling 10% within a day is RARE except 9th April (thanks to President Trump) but if you ignore that and took that opportunity to DCA, you are well rewarded as data shown.
So now, the market is again haunting you that another selldown is coming - downgrade of US AA1 rating by Moody .
Good, if it comes down another 5-10% , then it is another great opportunity to buy more at cheaper price. The reasons many are afraid to go LONG is because they let the media scared the hell out of them. Bro, that is how media make their money - viewership.
News must be sensational, ya ? The bloodier, creating more fear, uncertainty , the better and the more people hooked on reading, forwarding and commenting on it.
So, perhaps the market will react to this negative news and come down and close the gap around 5666 price level. That would be nice to buy more. Be patient and wait for the green dotted bullish trend line be broken down first.
Of course, maybe the Gen Z finds this strategy too slow, giving peanut returns year on year and prefer to long crypto where overnight millionaires are made and they were sold that dream, fast and furious.
Do what suits you but as always, know what you are doing and protect yourself - NEVER EVER borrow to invest/trade, NEVER EVER go on MARGIN no matter how smart/confident you are on the trade, always use a Stop LOSS.
MASTER PATTERN TEACHING using TradingView charts. Master pattern - Tonight we are looking at the SPX 500 index directional trade. Using Options.
This is a master pattern technical analysis set up for entry, discipline and execution of a trade.
I will use the 3 time frames to identify
1) Higher time frame ( HTF) Direction trade, trend & liquidity, volume confirmation, and the contraction box
2) Lower time frame ( LTF) Market makers and smart money set up contraction and expansion phases
3) Lower time frame ( LTF) Continuation leg of the trend
Once I have identified and selected my option DTE and spread I will execute when the LTF has reached a new low in the intraday.
Hope you learned something new.
Happy Trading.
Tommaso
No need to fomo on SPX, a dip will happen before hitting highsmarkets are going up on illusions and fomo, SPX dip incoming, monthly and daily support that
SP500 Time to be bearish againWatch out bulls, don't play hero. Bears are around the corner.
Probably gap up again tomorrow and push to 5937 and that's it because bears time is coming into play to take price down to 5760 and by the end of next week it should be around 5675 (if not sooner). Buckle up ladies and gentlemen we are going into a wild...wild ride.
S&P500 - The bottom we have been waiting for!The S&P500 - TVC:SPX - officially created the bottom:
(click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻)
This month we officially saw one of the craziest stock market fakeouts of the past decade. With a drop and reversal rally of about +15%, the S&P500 is about to even close with a green monthly candle, which then indicates that the stock market bottom was created.
Levels to watch: $120, $250
Keep your long term vision!
Philip (BasicTrading)
S&P500 INDEX (US500): More Growth is Coming
This week, S&P500 managed to violated a significant
daily demand zone.
It opens a potential for much more growth and trend-continuation.
Next resistance - 5973
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
S&P 500 to be in troubleAs seen on the chart, a TD COMBO (TomDeMark) SELL has been completed at the close on Friday 16th May
This means a higher probability of a sell zone above that close.
The support is the TDST line. If broken SPX would plunge further.
SPX sideways for 4 weeksExpecting the main indices will experience some sideways motions for the next +/- 4 weeks. Top might be between 5,950 and 6,000. This doesn't mean ALL stock will be sideways. *(Defense sector seems very bullish)
Ultimately after wave 2 is complete Markets will have a good consolation / launching pad for Wave 3.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 16, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The S&P 500 Index showed a steady upward trend during this week's trading session, successfully reaching a key target at the Outer Index Rally level of 5955. However, it's important to note the significant downward trend due to letter completion, which could lead to a decline toward the Mean Support level of 5828. Additionally, there is a possibility of further drops to the Mean Support level of 5661. On the other hand, the index may continue to rise from its current level, potentially advancing toward the Inner Currency Rally target set at 6073.
SPX 500 Downtrend MovementGreetings Traders this is my analysis on SPX500 and it is Short
📊 Overview:
Current price: 5,901 (in the opening zone of the short position).
The analysis points to a short strategy — the author predicts a price decline with the opening of a position between 6.009 and 6.023, aiming for 5.394–5.392.
🟩 Zone of resistance (Resistance level):
Major resistance level: 6,153.39
Price has reacted at that level in the past and has previously been rejected, making it a strong psychological and technical barrier.
🟨 Entry and Expectation Zone:
Open Position zone: 6.009–6.023 (brown zone)
Expected reaction: short signal, if the price is likely to bounce off the resistance and head lower
"First Top" and "Breakout" formations are observed, which is often a sign of a subsequent decline
🔻 Anticipated correction:
Target zone: 5.394–5.392
It is the previous levels of consolidation and the possible target of a short position
An arrow is shown predicting a price drop from the current level
🔴 Support Zone (Support Level):
Main support: 5,091.52
If the price breaks through the target level, it can even go down to this support
🧠 Technical elements:
Elliott Wave marks the completion of the impulse and corrective phase, suggesting the end of the upward wave
Impulsive movement and a drop in price indicate the possibility that the current correction will end and the price will move downwards again
A possible support area has already been tested, but it may be active again
🧩 Conclusion:
Strategy: short entry at ~6,010–6,020
Stop loss should be above 6,153 (above strong resistance)
Target: 5,394 (possible continuation of downward trend)
The plan is based on price action analysis, waves and recognition of key zones
Dear Traders like,comment let me know what do you think?
US500 - Let the Bulls Strive!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈US500 has been overall bullish trading within the rising channel marked in red.
Moreover, the blue zone is a strong support and structure!
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of support and lower red trendline acting as a non-horizontal support.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #US500 approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
We Have a Full Pattern into The Target BoxI am now looking for a 5-wave pattern to develop to the downside, followed by a 3-wave retrace, that in the coming weeks can take us back out of the Target box to the downside. Price must breach the 5578 area to give us any indication the pattern to the upside below is cracking.
SPX500 Hits Major Supply Zone – Will the Bears Take Over?The S&P 500 (SPX500) just tapped a significant supply zone between 5945–5952, a key level where previous selling pressure led to strong bearish moves. Price is currently showing signs of exhaustion at the top of this zone on the 4H timeframe, and we may be witnessing a potential reversal setup.
Key Levels:
Supply Zone (Resistance): 5945 – 5952
Mid-Support: 5478
Demand Zone (Strong Support): 4916 – 4920
Possible Scenarios:
1. Rejection from the supply zone could trigger a pullback to 5478, and if that breaks, the next bearish target would be the demand zone at 4916.
2. If the bulls break and close above 5952 with strong momentum, we might see new highs, but volume confirmation is needed.
Watch for:
Bearish candlestick patterns in the supply zone
Reversal confirmation with RSI or MACD divergence
Volume drop on the breakout attempt
Red Arrows Mark: High-probability downside targets in case of reversal.
With key economic events marked on the chart (highlighted on May 22), volatility is expected. A fakeout or whipsaw move could be in play—stay cautious!
Are you bullish or bearish on SPX500? Drop your thoughts below and don’t forget to like and follow for more institutional-level analysis!
#SPX500 #S&P500 #LuxAlgo #SupplyDemand #TradingView #Forex #Stocks #PriceAction #SmartMoney #TechnicalAnalysis #SP500Analysis
S&P 500 INDEX ,,, Possible pullback Uptrend
Needless to say, every rising will be risky without a correction (either price or time).
After about three months of upward moving with just a small time correction, personally I am waiting for a correction to get new buying positions. In addition, some of the companies have prices rising dramatically and this proves that having a small corrective wave is vital for the market. Around 5800 can be a good place for a correction and a pullback. totally wait for another sure trigger for entry or adding new buying positions.
Good luck.
SP500: Bearish Forecast for Major Indices Starting May 15, 2025Bearish Forecast for Major Indices Starting May 15, 2025
The S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nikkei 225, and other major indices are poised to begin a significant decline, potentially as early as today, May 15, 2025, targeting a retest of the price lows from April 7, 2025, and possibly lower (S&P 500: ~4,802.20, Dow Jones: ~36,611.78, Nikkei: ~30,340.50).
This movement is driven by renewed trade tensions, disappointing economic data, and pervasive bearish market sentiment.
1. Fundamental Factors Driving Potential Decline
1.1. Renewed Uncertainty in Trade Policy
· The rally in indices on May 12–13, 2025, was fueled by optimism surrounding a temporary U.S.-China tariff reduction agreement (a 90-day truce) announced after talks in Switzerland on May 11, 2025. However, as of May 15, 2025, investor confidence may be waning due to a lack of tangible progress in ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations.
Trigger for May 15: Recent reports highlight conflicting statements from the Trump administration, with earlier promises of new trade deals (e.g., a U.K. deal on May 8) followed by uncertainty. A Reuters report from May 14, 2025, notes that U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent are meeting with Chinese officials, but no new agreements have been confirmed. If today’s talks yield no positive outcomes or if President Trump escalates rhetoric (e.g., reinstating higher tariffs), markets could plummet, as seen in early April when tariffs triggered a 15% drop in the S&P 500.
· Trade war fears disproportionately impact export-heavy indices like the Nikkei, which is sensitive to yen appreciation and U.S.-China tensions, and the Dow Jones, with its significant exposure to multinational corporations. A breakdown in negotiations could drive indices toward the April 7 lows as investors price in higher costs and slower global growth.
1.2. Disappointments in Economic Data
· CPI Reaction: The April 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI), released on May 14, 2025, reported inflation at 2.3% annually, below the expected 2.4%. While initially viewed as positive, markets may have anticipated an even lower figure to justify Federal Reserve rate cuts. The modest S&P 500 gain (+0.7%) and Dow’s decline (-0.6%) on May 14 suggest investor skepticism about further inflation cooling.
· Producer Price Index (PPI) Release on May 15: The PPI for April 2025, scheduled for release at 8:30 AM ET (2:30 PM CEST) on May 15, 2025, is a pivotal event. If the PPI indicates persistent wholesale inflation—potentially driven by tariff-related cost pressures—it could signal rising consumer prices ahead, diminishing hopes for Fed policy easing and triggering a sell-off. A higher-than-expected PPI could echo the market’s reaction to mixed economic data in early April, when GDP contraction fears pushed indices lower.
· Consumer Sentiment: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May 2025, released on May 14, 2025, likely showed continued weakness (April’s reading was 52.2, a multi-year low). If the May figure, reported yesterday, declined further, it could amplify concerns about reduced consumer spending, negatively impacting corporate earnings and pushing indices downward.
1.3. Concerns Over Federal Reserve Policy
· On May 7, 2025, Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted heightened economic risks, citing “elevated uncertainty” due to trade policies. Markets are pricing in 75 basis points of rate cuts for 2025, with the first cut expected in July.
· Trigger for May 15: If today’s PPI data or other economic indicators (e.g., Initial Jobless Claims, also due at 8:30 AM ET) point to persistent inflation or economic weakness, expectations for rate cuts could fade, increasing borrowing costs for companies and pressuring equity valuations. This scenario would mirror April 7, when recession fears and tariff impacts drove the S&P 500 below 5,000.
2. Technical Analysis
· The initial impulse move saw a decline of approximately -21.87%, with a second impulse of similar magnitude (marked on the chart). Currently, markets are aligned for a simultaneous decline across asset classes: oil, cryptocurrencies, and major indices like the S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nikkei, and others.
· Previous analysis concluded that this is a correction preceding a broader decline in indices, driven by trade wars, geopolitical conflicts, and U.S. economic indicators. I believe a recession is already underway.
Price Targets for S&P 500 Decline:
➖ Retest of the April 7, 2025, low: $4,803.00
➖ Secondary target: $4,716.00
3. Market Sentiment and Behavioral Factors
3.1. Fragile Optimism Post-Rally
· The S&P 500’s 22% rally from April lows and the Dow’s 15% recovery were driven by trade truce optimism and strength in technology stocks (e.g., Nvidia, Palantir). However, Bloomberg reported on May 14, 2025, that Wall Street’s rebound is “showing signs of exhaustion” due to trade war risks and fears of an economic slowdown. This fragility could lead to profit-taking today if negative news emerges.
· The Dow’s weakness on May 14 (down 0.6% compared to the S&P 500’s 0.7% gain) highlights vulnerabilities in specific sectors (e.g., healthcare following UnitedHealth’s 18% drop), which could spread to broader markets.
3.2. Global Market Correlation
· Asian markets, including the Nikkei, exhibited mixed performance on May 14, with China’s CSI 300 up slightly (+0.15%) and India’s Nifty 50 down 1.27%. If Asian markets open lower on May 15 due to overnight U.S. declines or trade-related news, it could create a feedback loop, intensifying global selling pressure.
4. Mini Evidence-Based Framework for the Forecast
4.1. Catalysts for Today’s Decline (May 15, 2025)
PPI Data (8:30 AM ET): A higher-than-expected PPI could signal persistent inflation, reducing the likelihood of Fed rate cuts and triggering a sell-off. Consensus anticipates a 0.2% monthly increase; a reading above 0.3% could be bearish.
Trade Talk Updates: Negative commentary from U.S. or Chinese officials (e.g., no deal reached in Geneva) could reignite trade war fears, mirroring the April 7 sell-off.
Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET): An unexpected rise in claims (e.g., above 220,000 compared to the prior fmadd211,000) could signal labor market weakness, amplifying recession fears.
4.2. Global Scenario for S&P 500
· I anticipate a wave-like decline with intermittent corrections. I wouldn’t be surprised if the S&P 500 falls below 4,700, potentially reaching 4,200. Extreme caution is warranted this year.
· There’s even a theory that, starting in 2025, the U.S. dollar could lose 50% of its purchasing power.
Idea:
4.3. Oil and Geopolitical Outlook
I expect oil (Brent) to decline to the $50+/- range, from which an upward trend may begin, potentially tied to future military conflicts:
· Europe vs. Russia
· India vs. Pakistan
· Iran vs. Israel
S&P500 Alert! Entering a medium-term SELL ZONE!The S&P500 index (SPX) has recovered the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, limiting the Trade War losses considerably. Trading this week above its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), the index has confirmed that it resumed its long-term bullish trend.
On he medium-term though attention is needed as we're headed towards a range, which in the past 10 years has historically been an interim Sell Zone. That's the 0.786 - 0.9 Fibonacci range, which since the 2016 correction, it has always rejected the uptrend of a 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) led recovery.
On 3 out of 3 occasions so far (April 2016, June 2020, July 2023), every time the price tested the 0.9 Fib, it got rejected back to its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). In 2023 the pull-back bottomed in 3 months but in 2020 and 2016 it took considerably less.
As a result, we call for caution near the 0.9 Fib for a potential medium-term pull-back but on the long-term the bullish trend is intact and historically it targets a minimum +27.74% from the All Time High (ATH), which is translated into a 7800 Target.
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Time to take down the "Trump low"When the president of USA says buy buy buy, and everyone buy, you think everyone gonna be happy and in profit?
Markets doesnt work like that, they don't. time to take down the Trump low then run everything up to new highs
