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US 500 (per 1.0) (AUD)US 500 (per 1.0) (AUD)US 500 (per 1.0) (AUD)

US 500 (per 1.0) (AUD)

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US500AUD trade ideas

SPX – Triple Breakout: Inverse H&S + EMA 200 + Ichimoku CloudSPX has confirmed a powerful bullish breakout with three confluences: 1. Inverse Head & Shoulders breakout 2. 200 EMA breakout 3. Ichimoku Cloud breakout This alignment of structure, trend, and momentum indicators suggests a potential continuation move toward 6150 in the coming weeks. Trade View: Entry: On breakout retest or continuation Target: 6150 Stop Loss: Below neckline or EMA200 depending on risk tolerance Bias: Strongly bullish
SP:SPXLong
by kksaha87
The final rally or the beginning of hyper-inflation? This is an ascending wedge, (65% chance of a break to the downside statistically,) that the S&P500 has been trading in for it's entire life cycle. All historical data points to a final topping process as market makers head back for the top trend to liquidate short positions that took positions on the last plunge. The former sell-off showed no signs of big money taking full exit from the market as it was quite gradual; allowing short positions to stack at back tests of key resistance areas. Therefore, it stands to reason that the oversold daily RSI was going to allow for a powerful bounce to catch shorts off guard. The market will not sell off largely until shorts have capitulated as exchanges and banks load up for a final rally to completely remove those positions and sell new highs. when this happens, there will be no gradual dump but, instead, a red waterfall with news about hyperbolic, impending disasters coming out after the largest institutions push the sell button. Breaking that top trend on the 3 month logarithmic chart would be a first in market history and denote hyper-inflation followed by the coming crash being even more violent then anyone believes is possible. It is a good time to start scaling out of the market little by little.
SP:SPX
by fishguru73
US500 bearish 12 May - 16 May 2025S&P 500 Bearish Outlook: Targeting $5,100 Amid Rising Uncertainty As of May 12, 2025, the S&P 500 (US500) stands at 5,661, reflecting a robust recovery from its April lows. However, I anticipate a bearish shift, projecting a decline towards the $5,100 level in the near term. Several converging factors underpin this outlook: 1. Anticipated Weakness in Core CPI Data The upcoming release of the April Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) on May 13 is poised to be a pivotal event. While the year-over-year Core CPI is forecasted at 2.8%, matching the previous month's figure, the month-over-month increase is expected to rise to 0.3%, up from 0.1% in March. This acceleration suggests persistent inflationary pressures, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain or even tighten monetary policy, thereby exerting downward pressure on equities. 2. Deteriorating Market Sentiment and Forecasts A notable shift in market sentiment is evident, with key indicators turning bearish. A prominent S&P 500 model has signaled its first bearish outlook since February 2022, reflecting growing investor apprehension. Additionally, leading financial institutions have revised their S&P 500 targets downward: Goldman Sachs: Reduced from 6,500 to 5,700 RBC Capital Markets: Lowered from 6,600 to 5,500 Oppenheimer: Cut from 7,100 to 5,950 Yardeni Research: Adjusted from 7,000 to 6,000 These revisions underscore the mounting concerns over economic headwinds and market volatility. 3. Sectoral Divergence: Opportunities Amidst the Downturn While the broader market faces challenges, certain sectors may exhibit resilience or even bullish tendencies: Healthcare: Continues to serve as a defensive sector, with companies demonstrating solid quarterly results and reaffirming full-year guidance despite tariff impacts. Energy Infrastructure: Firms like Enbridge and TC Energy benefit from long-term structural tailwinds, including rising energy demand and global energy security priorities. Financials and Technology: Sectors represented by ETFs such as XLK and XLF are highlighted for their strong fundamentals and growth prospects. Conversely, consumer discretionary sectors are showing signs of strain, with negative revenue surprises and companies like Harley-Davidson withdrawing their 2025 outlooks amid tariff uncertainties. 4. Implications of the US-UK Trade Deal Recent developments in the US-UK trade agreement further contribute to market uncertainty. While the deal includes exemptions for certain British goods, such as aerospace components and a quota of 100,000 UK-made cars annually, it also maintains a baseline 10% tariff on foreign goods. This policy introduces complexity and potential cost pressures for multinational companies operating across borders. Moreover, the agreement has faced criticism for being one-sided, with concerns that it may not adequately protect domestic industries or address broader trade imbalances. Such apprehensions can dampen investor confidence and contribute to market volatility. The convergence of persistent inflation, cautious monetary policy, revised market forecasts, and the complexities introduced by recent trade agreements suggest a bearish trajectory for the S&P 500, with a potential decline towards $5,100. Investors should remain vigilant, monitoring sector-specific developments and macroeconomic indicators to navigate the evolving market landscape. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
PEPPERSTONE:US500Short
by Zezu_Zaza
$SPX Urgent! My <3 & My Soul: Slow Bleed Crash to 3k by Q4 26' Do be warned. Very important post here. I put my heart and soul into this. I made a video earlier and then it got deleted by accident, so I made a less happy one right after. I've got news for all the bulls and investors out there that feel they will be able to continue buying every single dip out there. Get ready for the dip that keeps dipping. Big names already cracking heavy. NASDAQ:META NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:AMD NASDAQ:NVDA to name a few. Big tech is getting cleaned out and layoffs are on the rise. Tariffs create huge amounts of uncertainty. I don't feel like this is rocket science. Buffet is all cash. 89% of Hedge Fund managers believe the US market is the most expensive its ever been and Tutes have been selling at the highest rate ever before. I think it's time the US finally gets a shake down. Bullish conditioning has been running rampant, and I've seen Social Media Accounts discourage charting and only paying attention to price action? Price action involves the entire collective, not just one Timeframe. Anyways, here's an overlay from 01' ... the only one I could find that matches. Says short 560 around May 7th and then take profits around 500 again. Let's make this a nice one. Calls till 560 into May then flip to Puts into June. From then short 530 every time you can. $450 is My first target after we break previous lows. I will update as we go. Have a good one yall.
SP:SPXShort
by TazmanianTrader
12
SPX500USD Chart Breakdown Price is currently approaching the 5,708 🔼 resistance zone after a strong bullish rally from the 5,320 🔽 support level. The market structure remains bullish, with higher highs and higher lows supported by the upward-sloping 50-period SMA. Support at: 5,590 🔽, 5,450 🔽, 5,320 🔽 Resistance at: 5,708 🔼, 5,840 🔼 Bias: 🔼 Bullish: If price breaks and holds above 5,708 🔼, we could see continuation toward 5,840. Holding above the 50 SMA strengthens the bullish outlook. 🔽 Bearish: A rejection from 5,708 🔼 could send price back down toward 5,590, with further weakness exposing 5,450 🔽. 📛 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by SPOT_FX
Still looking for downside on SPX500USDHi traders, Last week SPX500USD consolidated the whole week so nothing changed for the outlook. It looks like price is forming a leading diagonal (wave 1). So next week we could see a (corrective) move down from the Daily FVG above. Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for price come into the Daily FVG above and a change in orderflow to bearish, a small impulse wave down and a small correction up on a lower timeframe to trade (short term) shorts. If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with Wave analysis, then please make sure to follow me. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis. Don't be emotional, just trade your plan! Eduwave
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by EduwaveTrading
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 9, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: In the initial days of this week’s trading session, the S&P 500 Index exhibited a steady to low price movement pattern, successfully achieving a significant target at the Mean Support level of 5601, as indicated in last week’s Daily Chart Analysis. Subsequently, the Index experienced a robust rebound, effectively retesting the Mean Resistance level of 5692. This upward trajectory achievement established a reversal pattern for the downward acceleration to repeat the Mean Support level 5601 retest. However, it is critical to recognize the considerable risk of a sharp upward movement from the current price action, which may lead to an ascent toward the next Mean Support level of 5778. Furthermore, there exists the potential for additional escalation, potentially reaching the Outer Index Rally level of 5915 and beyond.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
S&P 500 Braces for a Drop to $5,100–$5,177: Correction Coming?S&P 500 Braces for a Drop to $5,100–$5,177: Is the Correction Coming? SP500 Reached the target of $5,680 - $5,800 and is going into correction along with Bitcoin 🤔. Before: After: ➖ The S&P 500 could fall to the 5100–5177 range due to the following fundamental factors: FOMC Meeting on May 7: Expected rate hold and potentially hawkish rhetoric from Powell could amplify fears of rate hikes, hitting growth stocks. ➖ Trade War: Uncertainty in U.S.-China negotiations and risks of new tariffs threaten supply chains and corporate profits. ➖ Weak Economy: GDP contraction (-0.3% in Q1), recession fears, and weak PMI data fuel pessimism. ➖ Corporate Earnings: Disappointing guidance from key companies (e.g., Apple, Tesla) could trigger sell-offs. ➖ Sentiment on X: Bearish sentiment reflects market caution. ➖ Global Risks: Retaliatory tariffs and rising gold prices signal a flight from U.S. assets. Assumption: If the Fed on May 7 emphasizes inflation risks and delays rate cuts, and tariff news remains negative, the S&P 500 could break support at 5500 and reach 5100–5177 within 1–2 weeks, especially amid technical selling and market panic.
VANTAGE:SP500Short
by SergioRichi
Turbulence at Sea: A New Phase in International TradeBy Ion Jauregui – ActivTrades Analyst The growing trade tension between China and the United States has once again shaken the foundations of global commerce. In April, container traffic between the two powers fell by 30% to 40%, according to data from Maersk (CPH:MAERSKb), one of the world’s largest logistics operators. This decline comes amid a new wave of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which China could counter with similar measures. Although the conflict has reignited fears of a global trade slowdown, some shipping companies have maintained their annual forecasts thanks to one unexpected factor: the chaos in the Red Sea. Global Trade Under Question Maersk, despite the collapse in transpacific routes, has not revised down its profit outlook for 2025. The reason: the logistical disruption in the Red Sea, caused by geopolitical tensions, has driven up maritime freight rates, partially offsetting the drop in volume. Still, optimism is cautious. The company now expects global trade growth to range between -1% and +4%, a margin that reflects the current high level of uncertainty. Asia-Europe routes are also being affected, and many companies are already seeking alternative logistics — more expensive but safer. Impact on Other Global Companies The blow is not exclusive to Maersk. FedEx, DHL, and COSCO Shipping have also reported disruptions in their international operations. Manufacturers such as Apple, Tesla, and Boeing are facing delays and rising costs in their supply chains, particularly in key components coming from Asia. Industrial giants like Caterpillar and Honeywell, heavily reliant on exports, have seen their margins shrink and growth forecasts revised downward. The retail sector — with giants such as Nike and Walmart — is also feeling the pressure: rising logistics costs, lower momentum in international sales, and difficulties in inventory management. Market Reaction: S&P 500 and Nasdaq The effects have quickly rippled through financial markets. The S&P 500, which includes major U.S. companies, has come under pressure from geopolitical and trade uncertainty. The industrial and consumer discretionary sectors are leading the declines, while interest in more defensive sectors is growing. The Nasdaq 100, dominated by tech companies with global supply chains, is also showing signs of fatigue. Apple and Nvidia have corrected in recent sessions, driven by concerns over potential retaliation from Beijing and delays in critical components. Semiconductor companies like Qualcomm and AMD could also suffer if China restricts access to critical raw materials or imposes new trade barriers. Technical Analysis: S&P 500 The current chart formation reflects the drop that followed the imposition of tariffs, followed by a partial recovery to the 5,670-point area — slightly above the current point of control. The index is currently at the upper end of a range in which it has fluctuated several times. The RSI is slightly overbought, and the next upward target could be a return to all-time highs if it breaks the 5,900-point barrier. Moving averages appear to be converging toward a possible bullish directional shift. Outlook As 2025 progresses, investors are facing an extremely uncertain environment. The possibility of an escalation in the trade war, combined with ongoing logistical disruptions, could cap global growth and squeeze corporate earnings. All of this comes at a time when GDP growth in the U.S. and China was already showing signs of slowing: the former affected by persistent inflation, and the latter by weak domestic demand and a 21% drop in exports to the U.S. In short, international trade stands at a crossroads. If the situation does not improve in the coming months, we may witness a major restructuring of global supply chains and a shift of capital toward safer assets. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:USA500Long
by ActivTrades
The Illusion of Value: How the U.S. Market Became a Fantasy EconThe Illusion of Value: How the U.S. Market Became a Fantasy Economy For decades, the American economy has been celebrated as the epicenter of innovation, wealth creation, and corporate success. But beneath the surface, an unsettling reality has emerged: The U.S. financial markets are increasingly driven by speculation, hype, and a distorted sense of value. "Buy Now, Pay Later"—A Culture of Delusion One of the most glaring symptoms of this detachment from reality is the widespread adoption of "Buy Now, Pay Later" (BNPL) services. A staggering number of American consumers have embraced debt-financed spending as a normal part of life. Credit cards are no longer the primary vehicle for financial mismanagement—BNPL systems have convinced people they can afford luxuries they fundamentally cannot. This mentality, in turn, feeds into the stock market’s obsession with future promises over actual output. Investors have become infatuated with narratives rather than numbers, driving valuations to unrealistic highs for companies that either underdeliver or simply do nothing at all. The MicroStrategy Paradox: Borrowing Money to Buy Bitcoin Take MicroStrategy, for example—a company whose sole business model seems to be leveraging borrowed capital to buy Bitcoin. By traditional metrics, MicroStrategy offers no tangible product, no innovative service, no groundbreaking technology—just speculative accumulation. Yet, thanks to Bitcoin hype, its stock price is valued as if it’s a revolutionary player in the corporate world. This irrational valuation mirrors the broader issue with American markets: Companies are being rewarded not for what they actually do, but for the financial games they play. The Myth of Overvalued Titans: Tesla & Meta Tesla and Meta serve as the poster children of speculative overvaluation. - Tesla: Once hailed as an automotive disruptor, Tesla’s stock price often reflects what Elon Musk promises rather than what Tesla delivers. From self-driving software that never fully materialized to mass production goals that fell flat, Tesla’s ability to sustain its valuation relies more on Musk’s cult-like following than automotive success. Meanwhile, the gutting of regulatory oversight has allowed Tesla to push unfinished, potentially hazardous products into the market. - Meta: Meta’s valuation has ballooned largely on the promise of virtual reality dominance. Yet, billions poured into the Metaverse have yielded little beyond overpriced VR headsets and gimmicky social spaces. Elon Musk: The Master of Market Manipulation Elon Musk’s influence on financial markets cannot be overstated. Through cryptic tweets, grand promises, and regulatory maneuvering, Musk has become a force powerful enough to shift markets with mere words. Whether it’s pumping Dogecoin, slashing Tesla’s safety oversight, or influencing government policy for personal gain, Musk operates in a reality where market value is dictated by his persona rather than corporate fundamentals. The Rise of True Value Markets While the U.S. economy indulges in financial fantasy, other global markets have started to present compelling opportunities: - Europe: A more realistic, fundamentals-based approach to valuation is emerging. Traditional industries remain resilient, and companies must show actual profitability to attract investment. - China: Despite regulatory challenges, China’s focus on industrial production, technological advancement, and infrastructure development gives its economy a sense of tangible progress. - UK & Australia: Unlike the speculative U.S. markets, these economies remain grounded in earnings, productivity, and rational valuations. Conclusion The American financial landscape has become a speculative playground detached from reality. Companies are valued not for what they produce, but for what they promise, what they borrow, and what narratives they spin. Figures like Musk exploit market sentiment, while deregulation enables corporations to operate recklessly. As Europe, China, the UK, and Australia foster economies built on real value, the U.S. is at risk of crashing under the weight of its illusions. SP:SPX TVC:DXY INDEX:BTCUSD TVC:GOLD NASDAQ:MSTR NASDAQ:TSLA NYSE:BLK NASDAQ:META XETR:DAX FTSE:UKX TVC:HSI SET:SQ NASDAQ:PYPL NASDAQ:AFRM NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:AMZN NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:COIN NASDAQ:HOOD
SP:SPXShort
by CassianDrake
2
Tag ‘n Turn → Bear Mode EngagedV-Shape Reversal Confirms Short Bias You ever see a setup pull a fakeout, tease a breakout, then pivot perfectly back into your system? That was yesterday. The Tag ‘n Turn gave us another clean swing exit off the upper Bollinger Band, and while I was ready to defer the next entry, a tidy little V-shaped reversal handed us the confirmation we needed. We’re back bearish. Levels are set. Now we let the market do its thing. --- SPX Market View Let’s unpack the sequence. Price ran up into the upper Bollinger Band and triggered the final legs of our overnight swings. That was the cash-out point – system clean, profits booked. But I wasn’t diving into the next setup just yet. Why? Because it looked like the start of a Bollinger breakout – the kind that breaks the pinch and rips higher. So I paused. Waited. Then came the V-shaped reversal – clear as day within 2 hours. Entry happened late in the day, around the same level the mechanical Tag ‘n Turn would have fired. No edge lost. Just added confirmation. Now? The system is officially bearish again, with a firm rejection at highs and a sharp drive lower that flipped the tone of the day and the bias on the chart. Today’s key levels: 5620 = GEX flip zone Also where we bounced up post-FOMC 5680 = resistance zone – could mark today’s top We’re back in the pre-FOMC chop zone. The plan: Bearish until price tells us otherwise Hedge levels marked No chase Wait for price to hit our zone Let the system print Expert Insights: Jumping the gun on reversals – wait for structure, not assumptions. Chasing breakouts too early – pinch points often fake before they break. Skipping levels – 5620 and 5680 matter. Mark them or risk regret. Overmanaging overnight trades – exits were planned. Trust the system. Forcing direction changes – confirmation > prediction. The system knows. Satirical cartoon showing confirmation over prediction. Rumour Has It… Word is the SPX reversal was caused by a rogue intern at the Fed who mistook the breakout chart for a bowl of ramen and tried to stir it with a mouse. After rebooting TradingView, they accidentally submitted a bearish policy note to Bloomberg. The market reversed out of pure confusion. This is entirely made-up satire. Probably! Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity? --- Fun Fact The term “V-shaped reversal” originated in early floor trading days when chalkboard analysts would literally sketch a V on the board as a real-time note to floor brokers. That visual shorthand became one of the most recognized intraday patterns in trading – a pattern that still works in a world of tickers, bots, and zero-DTE.
SP:SPXShort
by MrPhilNewton