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US500AUD trade ideas

S&P500 – Bullish Setup Into Major Top!We expect a strong rally on the S&P 500 starting next week. Based on our timing models and wave structure, we believe a major top is likely to be formed on one of the following key dates: 📅 April 22nd, April 24th, or April 29th, 2025 🔹 Rally Targets: • First Target: $5,630 • Second Target: $5,787 • Third Target: $6,000 (upper range projection) This move is part of a final leg up before we anticipate a major reversal and strong downward move, potentially marking a significant turning point for the broader market. 🧠 We are currently positioned to capture this upside and will reassess risk closely as we approach the above-mentioned dates. Precision matters — and so does timing.
SP:SPX
by VitalDirection
2
SPX Continues to Rise After FOMC DecisionThe U.S. index has been gaining more than 2% in recent trading sessions, and the bullish bias has remained intact since the Federal Reserve’s decision during yesterday’s session. The central bank once again opted to keep the interest rate steady at 4.5%. However, according to some comments, Chairman Powell mentioned that the economy is approaching a point where it may soon be appropriate to begin cutting interest rates. This has fueled expectations of future rate cuts and has helped sustain confidence in equity indices over the short term. Uptrend: Since April 9, a new short-term uptrend has been consistently forming, with price movements holding above the 5,000-point mark. However, the price is now approaching a key resistance level, and as long as this barrier holds, it could lead to short-term neutrality in recent price action. ADX: The ADX line has been falling sharply in recent sessions and is now nearing the neutral 20 level. This indicates a lack of sustained volatility in recent price moves. If the ADX remains at these levels, it could reinforce a period of consolidation or range-bound movement in the short term. RSI: The RSI line remains consistently above the neutral 50 mark, indicating that buying momentum still dominates in the short term. However, as the RSI approaches the overbought level near 70, this could open the door for short-term bearish corrections. Key Levels: 5,750 points – Nearby resistance: This level coincides with the 200-period simple moving average. A breakout above this zone could strengthen the bullish bias and support a more sustained uptrend. 5,540 points – Nearby support: This level aligns with the 50-period moving average and may serve as a potential zone for bearish corrections to unfold. 5,370 points – Critical support: This level aligns with the short-term ascending trendline. A drop below this support could jeopardize the current bullish structure in the short term. Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by FOREXcom
SPX500 local top at 5700? Serious retrace could hit 5500SPX back to its "Liberation Day" highs and possible end of local wave. Local 4.236 fib at 5700.72 may have marked end of this wave up. Dip targets include the various green fibs but major target 5505.42 Green Zone below is a MUST HOLD or we return to Bear Markets. . =================== Previous Charts below ================== Major TOP call: Liberation Day top call: Tariff Relief road map: ================================================================ .
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by EuroMotif
S&P INTRADAY uptrend continuationMarket and Geopolitical Update US–UK Trade Deal: Donald Trump announced a trade agreement with the UK, calling it the first of his promised deals. Details will be released by the White House. Chipmakers Rise: The US plans to roll back some Biden-era AI chip export restrictions, boosting chip stocks. New rules are in development to better control foreign chip use. Markets Rally: US stock futures climbed, Bitcoin neared $100,000, and the dollar strengthened slightly after the Fed signaled no rush to cut rates. Corporate Struggles: Despite market optimism, companies continue to feel tariff pressure. Toyota expects a $1.3 billion hit, while Maersk downgraded its transport outlook. India–Pakistan Tensions: Pakistan reported shooting down 12 Indian drones, escalating long-standing tensions. India’s Nifty 50 dropped 0.4%, and Pakistan’s KSE-30 fell 7%. Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 5730 Resistance Level 2: 5780 Resistance Level 3: 5874 Support Level 1: 5580 Support Level 2: 5510 Support Level 3: 5440 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by TradeNation
Up-a-Bar, Down-a-Bar? Sorted.Gap Higher Into 5700 Heat Ever make a tiny tweak to your bias, ignore the noise, and then watch the market validate every inch of it? That’s the vibe this morning. Yesterday’s post-FOMC tag of the lower Bollinger Band confirmed the mechanical turn, and if you’ve been following along, that means our bullish bias got an official upgrade. Futures are already up 60 points overnight, price is lifting into the 5700 zone, and yes… that broken wing butterfly we placed in the slop is now basking in the spotlight. Didn’t catch the full breakdown of that clean +98.1% ROC win? You should. Because boring trades print – and this one did just that. --- SPX Market View Let’s talk about the move we didn’t miss. We spotted the sideways chop. The indecision. The textbook “up-a-bar, down-a-bar” noise. But instead of guessing direction into FOMC chaos, we made a minor but vital adjustment: Bullish above 5600. Stay mechanical. Stay patient. That call aged well. FOMC came and went with all the urgency of a soggy biscuit. The lower Bollinger Band tag arrived right on cue, and with overnight futures up strong, we’re sitting in validation territory. Now today? 5700 becomes the zone of truth. It’s the GEX cluster. It’s the high of the week. (so far) It’s where a gap-and-go or gap-and-fade could unfold. If price breaks clean, we could see new highs forming into the weekend. If not, expect a choppy pullback from the open before things stabilise. Either way… Already in swings. Already got B&B on. No need to chase. Let the market come to us. This is why structure wins. Expert Insights: Flipping bias mid-chop – let price confirm. Don’t front-run. Forcing entries post-gap – wait for structure, not speed. Ignoring prior levels – 5700 is loaded. Watch for traps. Missing the post-review edge – yesterday’s trade gives today’s confidence. Chasing noise into FOMC hangovers – let the dust settle before committing. --- Rumour Has It… Apparently, the Fed’s post-FOMC statement was originally just a shrug emoji and the word “meh” repeated 17 times. When asked to elaborate, the AI bot in charge blinked twice and played a jazz loop. Traders remain unsure if it was dovish or just tired. This is entirely made-up satire. Probably! Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity? --- Fun Fact In 1983, the S&P 500 posted its largest one-day post-Fed reversal at the time, rallying over 3% after a morning selloff – all while inflation was double digits and headlines screamed chaos. The takeaway? News means nothing if your setup is clean and your risk is defined. The same edge applies today.
SP:SPXLong
by MrPhilNewton
US500 - Which way will the stock market go?!The index is trading above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If the index moves down towards the specified demand zone, one can look for further S&P buy positions with a good risk-reward ratio. In its meeting last night, the U.S. Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate steady within the 4.25% to 4.50% range. This decision comes amid growing concerns about simultaneous rises in inflation and unemployment, particularly driven by the tariff policies of the Trump administration. This marks the third consecutive time this year that the Fed has held rates unchanged, reflecting mounting economic uncertainty and fears of stagflation.Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that the combination of high inflation, slow economic growth, and rising unemployment could lead the economy into stagflation. He noted that newly imposed tariffs could delay the disinflation process for up to a year or more. The Trump administration has introduced steep tariffs, including a 145% levy on imports from China. These measures have contributed to rising prices and slower economic growth, placing additional strain on monetary policymakers. Following the Fed’s announcement, stock markets exhibited volatility. The S&P 500 initially fell but ended the day higher. Bond yields declined, while the U.S. dollar strengthened. Powell emphasized that future monetary policy decisions will be heavily data-dependent, and the central bank stands ready to act swiftly if necessary. He acknowledged that the economic outlook remains uncertain, requiring cautious and adaptive policy management. Faced with escalating uncertainty and inflationary pressures stemming from new trade measures, the Fed has adopted a cautious stance. Given the current mixed economic indicators, the central bank is expected to maintain its interest rate policy until the economic picture becomes clearer. Economists at Goldman Sachs have issued a warning that U.S. inflation is on the rise and may reach 3.8% by the end of 2025. According to their analysis, the weakening of the U.S. dollar and the implementation of tariff policies are the main drivers of increased inflationary pressure. Additionally, changes in import demand could elevate production costs and further intensify price increases. The Wall Street Journal reported that new tariffs may raise the prices of smartphones and laptops by up to 30%. Contrary to popular belief, this inflationary impact may not be temporary and could result in sustained upward pressure on prices. Meanwhile, ahead of the FOMC meeting, Alphabet (Google’s parent company) saw its stock plunge over 8%, falling to $149.50. Eddy Cue, a senior executive at Apple, disclosed that for the first time in April, user activity on browsers and search engines had declined. In response, Apple is exploring the integration of AI-powered search into its browsers—a move that could pose a serious threat to Google’s advertising revenue. Simultaneously, President Trump announced he would not enforce the AI content restriction law, initially introduced during the Biden administration and scheduled to take effect on May 15. This decision comes just before his trip to the Middle East, where countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have voiced frustration over chip access restrictions. Trump administration officials are currently drafting new legislation aimed at tightening control over the export of advanced chips. This initiative may form part of a broader agreement, as the UAE has pledged to invest up to $1.4 trillion in U.S. technology and infrastructure over the next decade.
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by Ali_PSND
SNP500/EquitiesThe current macroeconomic backdrop, shaped by the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.50%, highlights growing concerns over economic risks, particularly stemming from trade tensions and inflationary pressures triggered by tariffs. Despite a strong April jobs report, the Fed is signaling increased caution, warning that the risks of both higher inflation and higher unemployment have risen. Treasury yields are reflecting this shift in sentiment, with the 2-year yield falling to 3.76% and the 10-year yield at 4.29%, suggesting that markets are beginning to price in a slower growth environment and potential future rate cuts. In this environment, real estate investments are proving resilient. The Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLRE) is up +3.14% year-to-date, outperforming broader equity indices such as the S&P 500 (SPX), down –4.69%, and the Nasdaq 100 (NDX), down –6.19%. Real estate typically benefits from a stable or declining interest rate environment, as lower yields reduce the discount rate applied to property cash flows and enhance the appeal of steady income-generating assets like REITs. Additionally, real estate assets—especially in sectors like multi-family housing and industrial logistics—can provide some inflation protection through lease repricing and consistent demand. By contrast, the broader equity markets are showing signs of strain. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have delivered negative returns year-to-date, reflecting investor unease around earnings growth, margin pressures from tariffs, and general macroeconomic uncertainty. Defensive equity sectors are faring better—Financials (XLF) are up +2.75%, and Consumer Staples and Health Care are showing modest gains. Technology and cyclical sectors such as Materials (XLB –0.39%) and Energy (XLE –0.30%) are underperforming, indicating a rotation into safer assets. The VIX (Volatility Index) at 24.72 confirms heightened risk aversion among investors. Given this backdrop, a prudent portfolio strategy for the next three to six months would prioritize capital preservation, income generation, and inflation protection. A recommended tactical allocation might include 30–35% in real estate, leveraging XLRE and potentially private REITs in stable segments. Allocating 25–30% to defensive equity sectors, such as financials and consumer staples, can provide exposure to more stable earnings. Exposure to high-beta sectors like technology should be limited to 10–15%, given continued volatility and valuation risks. Holding 20–25% in cash or short-term Treasuries provides flexibility, especially with yields still elevated, while a 5–10% allocation to alternatives such as gold (XAUUSD +28.90% YTD) or inflation-protected securities like TIPs adds a useful macro hedge. Looking forward, real estate is likely to remain attractive if the Fed maintains a dovish tilt or initiates rate cuts later in the year. Sectors with strong fundamentals, such as housing and logistics, should continue to perform well. Equities, however, are expected to remain volatile, with upside capped unless trade uncertainty is resolved or corporate earnings show resilience. Investors should favor value-oriented, dividend-paying stocks with lower volatility. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar may soften gradually as rate expectations fall and inflation hedges rise in importance, further supporting real asset classes.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by Buranku
S&P500: Hit its 4H MA50. Can it provide a price push?S&P500 (SPX) is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 52.949, MACD = 19.450, ADX = 31.038) as the index just hit its 4H MA50, which is holding since April 22nd. This is at the bottom of the 4H Channel Up so as long as it holds, the signal is bullish. In the meantime the index again hit the P1 level, which was previously a Resistance. As long as this demand zone holds, we are aiming at the R2 level (TP = 5,790). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestingScope
1
S&P 500 Monthly : Major Correction or Reloading Phase?Wavervanir_International_LLC | May 7, 2025 The S&P 500 may have just completed a long-wave ABC correction on the monthly chart. Price rejected the 0.886 Fib zone (~5693) and is now printing bearish momentum with a distribution-style volume spike. 🔍 Bearish View (65%) Wave (C) likely peaked. Momentum divergence + high-volume rejection. Target zone: 4611 (0.5 Fib + prior structure support). 📈 Bullish View (35%) Higher low above 5400 + clean breakout above 5700 could target 6144. 📊 Market at an inflection point—watch liquidity, macro signals, and Fed tone closely. #SPX #SP500 #TechnicalAnalysis #Fibonacci #ElliottWave #Macro #BearishOutlook #BullishScenario #TradingView #Wavervanir
FX:SPX500Short
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
STOCKS | MARKET WATCH | Why Long-Term Investing Still Wins🤯 The start of 2025 was a bit of a rollercoaster for stocks. Global markets got seriously rattled in the first few months by some sudden jitters. When President Trump announced those aggressive tariffs, it caused significant concern among investors, sending stock markets tumbling and prompting a flight to safety. Like Reuters said, April was "epic" for crazy market swings – the VIX fear index shot up to levels we hadn't seen since 2020 and 2008, and then just as quickly dropped back down. Markets went wild. But then, by late April, the panic kind of ... disappeared. Once President Trump paused the implementation of the most severe tariffs, stocks bounced back pretty sharply. The S&P 500 recovered most of what it lost. After that nasty drop, it ended April only about 5% lower than it started the year. The Nasdaq, with all its tech stocks, pretty much ended the month where it began. So, after all that drama, major US stock markets weren't far from their all-time highs, showing how fast that "fear" can vanish. 📊 How key indexes did S&P 500 (USA): 📉 Dipped in early April but bounced back late. Ended April around -5% for the year, after almost hitting a bear market. Nasdaq Composite (USA): 📉 Similar story. Tanked on the tariff scare, then rallied when things calmed down, ending April pretty much flat for the year. MSCI World (Global developed markets): 🤷‍♂️ Had its ups and downs along with the US markets. By the end of April, it was pretty much flat for the year – no big moves for the overall world index. MSCI Emerging Markets: 📉 Didn't do as well as developed markets. Asian stocks, especially, took a hit early April because of trade war worries, so this index lagged, even though it recovered a bit by the end of the month. FTSE/JSE All-Share (South Africa): 🇿🇦 The odd one out! The JSE jumped about +5% in the first three months of 2025, mainly thanks to mining stocks. It even hit a record high in March. The April craziness shook it up too, but because it did so well earlier, it was still slightly up for the year by late April. Takeaway? Global stocks were jumpy, but they mostly recovered. By late April, most major indexes were close to where they started the year. South Africa's market was the exception, having a good first quarter that helped it weather the April storm. ⏳ Staying invested beats trying to be a stock Wizard All this back and forth can make investors nervous. You start thinking, "Should I just sell now before it drops even more?" But history usually says that's the wrong move. Just sticking with it usually works out better than trying to guess the market's next move. BlackRock's iShares recently pointed out that "waiting for the 'right time' to invest might mean missing out on the best days," while staying invested lets you benefit from that "compounding" thing and get through the short-term bumps. Simply put, if you sit on the sidelines during big swings, you often miss the big rebound days. One study even showed that if you missed just the five best market days over 20 years, you'd end up with way less money than someone who just stayed in the market. The legendary investor Charlie Munger put it simply: "The first rule of compounding: never interrupt it unnecessarily." Trying to jump in and out of the market around all the volatility is super tough – the biggest up days often follow right after the biggest down days. On the other hand, patient investors who just ride out the noise tend to grab more of those long-term gains. After all, with compounding, those small gains build on each other over time. 💰 The awesome power of compounding over time Compounding basically means the sooner you invest and the longer you stay invested, the more your returns build on each other like a snowball rolling downhill. For example, the total return JSE All-Share index was up almost 23% over the last year. That kind of gain shows how just staying invested during good times can really grow your wealth. If you'd panicked and pulled out, you would have missed most of that growth. Over longer periods, like 5 to 10 years, the JSE has almost always gone up. The big lesson is that it's about "time in the market," not trying to "time the market," that really makes your returns grow and smooths out those bumps along the way. 🌍 What's driving the markets and the economy There were a few big things happening that explain why the markets moved the way they did. 🇺🇸 US GDP Slowdown: The US economy actually shrank a bit in the first quarter of 2025. A lot of people blamed this on a big surge in imports as businesses bought stuff ahead of those potential President Trump tariffs. Even though this news spooked the stock market briefly in late April, underlying consumer spending was still looking pretty decent. 📈 US Company Profits: On the bright side, US companies reported some pretty strong profits. Analysts were expecting good growth in earnings for the S&P 500 in the first quarter, even with the economic slowdown. And it turned out even better – a lot of companies beat expectations, and overall earnings were up quite a bit from last year. This helped keep stock prices from falling too much during the pullbacks. 🇪🇺 European Spending Boost: In Europe, governments are starting to spend more. Germany, for example, proposed a huge fund for infrastructure and energy. The EU is also loosening its spending rules and increasing defense budgets. Some experts think this could actually boost Europe's economic growth a bit each year, which would mean better profits for European companies. Some even think European companies might see faster profit growth than US companies in the next few years because of this spending. 🇨🇳 Asia and Trade Wars: Asia was the weak spot. China's economy showed some signs of trouble, with a survey suggesting its manufacturing activity might have shrunk in April after a couple of months of growth. This seemed to be a direct result of the US tariffs. Asian stock markets took a hit on the tariff news, which dragged down the overall emerging markets index. Basically, tariffs and trade tensions hurt growth in Asia and its markets, which then affected returns in emerging markets globally. ✅ The bottom line Early 2025 reminded us that markets can freak out quickly – but they can often bounce back just as fast. The swings felt scary, but history tells us that just sticking with your investments usually pays off. Major stock markets are pretty much where they were a few months ago, while economies and company earnings are still moving forward. For long-term investors, that wild week in April just reinforced an old lesson: stay invested and let compounding do its thing. As some experts say, "get invested and stay invested" because the most volatile times often have the biggest market gains. By sticking to your plan, you avoid missing those big up days when the "fear" fades and markets recover. _________________________ SP:SPX Sources: Recent market reports and data including the April SATRIX 2025 market newsletter “Once Again, Volatility Blinked and Fear Lost., nasdaq.com, reuters.com, ishares.com, insight.factset.com, reuters.com, iol.co.za
SP:SPXLong
by Crypto-Check-
Mongoose Capital: Macro Dashboard – US500 Fed & Recession WatchOverview: The Mongoose Capital Macro Dashboard offers a high-level view of key macroeconomic metrics driving market sentiment. Designed for the US500 (S&P 500 index), this tool tracks the interplay between Federal Reserve policy expectations, recession risk signals, and overall macro conditions in a clean, multi-panel layout. Key Features: FFR Cut Probability: Real-time assessment of Federal Reserve rate cut odds. Macro Conditions Score: Composite indicator showing the alignment of liquidity, inflation, labor market health, credit spreads, yield curve status, and global growth. Recession Risk Gauge: Aggregated recession probability, with dynamic background shading to reflect rising or falling risk. Yield Curve & Credit Spreads: Plots to monitor inversion trends and credit market health. Macro Event Markers: Highlights key events like CPI and FOMC meetings. How to Use: Optimized for the US500 on the 1D or 1W timeframe. Use the Macro Conditions Score and FFR Cut Probability as a context filter for your trade setups. Watch for Recession Score shifts (3/5 or higher) to flag caution zones. Best Practice: This dashboard is built for situational awareness, not as a direct buy/sell signal. Combine with technical analysis for trade execution. Example Chart Setup: US500 1D / 1W chart Apply as an overlay to maintain macro visibility alongside price action. Built by TheRealMongoose / Mongoose Capital.
CAPITALCOM:US500
by TheRealMongoose
The Relief Rally is at ResistanceThe SPX touched the main support line, it bounced after the "Buy the Dip" setup until it reached the S/R level at 5,600. This level is at the end of the relief rally, and we can say we're "back to normal". However, this is a critical point where this support was broken in the past and since support turns into resistance when broken, the most probably price action is a retracement back to the main support line, where depending how the market interprets the Fed Decision it may create a bounce and we can expect it to be consolidating in a trading range. The main S/R trading range becomes , and if the market gains enough momentum, it could jump to the upper trading range . It is not likely that the Fed will lower interest rates, since the effects of Tariffs is yet to be known. Inflation has been kept in check since the "soft landing", currently at 2.40%. Lowering interest rates now without knowing the collateral damage of tariffs would be a wild bet.
SP:SPXShort
by Madrid
5