S&P 500 - Sell in May, return anther day. The truth - 2025No doubt everyone has heard a variation of the phrase:
“Sell in May, return another day.”
In Wikipedia it is written:
“Sell in May and go away is an investment strategy for stocks based on a theory (sometimes known as the Halloween indicator) that the period from November to April inclusive has significantly stronger stock market growth on average than the other months. In such strategies, stock holdings are sold or minimised at about the start of May and the proceeds held in cash”
A public comment from last year:
“Over 100 years ago, the (practical) reason to sell in May and September, was to pay seasonal workers to seed the field (May) and to harvest (September). Caravans of landlords and farm owners went to New York to sell stocks and withdrew money from the banks to do payrolls
so for people without agricultural business, i'll say it's okay to hold in May”
If we are to take all this at face value then we should be unwinding our long term positions until the Autumn?
What does the chart say?
On the above monthly chart of the S&P 500 each vertical line marks the month of May going back to 2012. That is a dataset of 13 points.
The facts:
1) From the month of May onwards, 11 from 13 periods returned positive price action of not less than 10%. Selling in May was a bad choice.
2) 2015 and 2022 saw corrections of 15% from May onwards. However in both examples the correction was erased within 12 months as the index continued the uptrend.
In summary, 86% of the time a minimum return of 10% was seen before the year end. Amazing odds.
Furthermore, corrections up and until the end of April (like we’re now seeing) represented some of the best long opportunities.
Sell in May go away? I suggest it should be: Buy in June and watch it boom!
Ww
US500FU trade ideas
Big Tech Lines Up for Earnings Season: What Traders Should KnowPeak earnings season is right around the corner — the next two weeks are for the geeks with tech giants slated to report their quarterly financials all the while traders and investors weigh concerns over tariffs, trade wars, and export controls.
On tap to offload first-quarter earnings updates this week are Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA (Tuesday) and Google parent Alphabet NASDAQ:GOOGL (Thursday).
We’ll get more of the tech elite next week — Meta NASDAQ:META and Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT deliver next Wednesday and Amazon NASDAQ:AMZN and Apple NASDAQ:AAPL report Thursday. Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA reports late in May.
Let’s talk about that.
Welcome to earnings season, aka that rush hour of the quarter when traders hit refresh on the earnings calendar , their watchlists, and cortisol levels.
Once again, it's Big Tech in the spotlight — specifically the Magnificent Seven club, a pack of tech heavy hitters who spent the past year building the future of artificial intelligence only to be the first out the door this year when investors dumped risk in the face of looming global uncertainty.
Now, with Tesla and Alphabet kicking off what could be a market-moving series of updates, the real question isn’t just who beat the numbers — but who can still tell a good story in the face of tariffs, competition, and AI-fueled capex that’s starting to look like Monopoly money.
👜 The Setup: Seven Stocks, Seven Bags to Hold
The Magnificent Seven — Tesla, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, and Nvidia — aren’t just the tech elite. They’ve been the main engine of the market for the last few years. But in 2025, the wheels have come off.
These technology mainstays, towering over the growth sector, have shed hundreds of billions and are now nursing double-digit percentage losses. Each. One. Of. Them. The growth space, valued more on prospects of bright performance rather than current showing, has been hit hard this year. How hard? That hard:
Tesla NASDAQ:TSLA is down 36%
Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA is down 27%
Amazon NASDAQ:AMZN is down 21%
Alphabet NASDAQ:GOOGL is down 20%
Apple NASDAQ:AAPL is down 19%
Meta NASDAQ:META is down 16%
Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT is down 12%
On the outside, we all know what’s dragging stocks — it’s the widespread tariff jitters fanning recession fears and triggering waves of capital outflows. But on the inside, these tech giants are deep into a spending spree, and paring back that guidance might be too late.
AI spending is now at fever pitch, having gone from “impressive” to “uh… should we be concerned?” And that’s what investors will be watching when these masters of technology report quarterly numbers.
Besides the usual revenue figures, earnings per share and (likely timid) guidance, capital expenditures will draw a ton of attention. Capital expenditures, or capex, is the amount of money a company allocates for investments in new stuff like hardware and software and that may include beefing up existing infrastructure.
Injecting AI into systems and operations is top focus right now and Big Tech has decided to be generous and pony up some big money for it. Here’s what this year’s capex looks like, as per prior guidance:
Microsoft has allocated $80 billion
Alphabet has set aside $75 billion
Amazon? $100 billion ready to roll
Zuck’s Meta is in with up to $65 billion
The rest of the Mag 7 haven’t put out official capex projections but no one is sleeping on the opportunity.
Let’s go around the room and see what each of these is dealing with right now.
🚗 Tesla: A Look Under the Hood
Tesla reports first, and traders are bracing for either redemption — or another reason to panic sell.
On the surface, it’s not pretty: EV demand is sagging, especially in China and Europe. Musk’s political disruption and proximity to Trump aren’t helping the optics. And with shares already down 36% this year, the company enters this earnings call with bruises and baggage.
Revenue is expected to come in at $21.2 billion, down 1%, while earnings are projected to drop 8% to $0.42. Tesla delivered 336,681 cars in Q4 , a 14% drop from the same time a year ago.
🌎 Alphabet: Quiet Strength, But Still on Watch
Alphabet is expected to deliver solid results — $89.2 billion in revenue, up 11%, and $2.01 in earnings per share, up 6.3% from last year. Among the Mag 7, it’s one of the best-positioned players to weather trade volatility, thanks to its size, diverse revenue streams, and sheer dominance in advertising and cloud computing.
Its Gemini AI model is heating up the race against ChatGPT and Copilot, and its cloud division is quietly chipping away at AWS and Azure’s lead.
That said, traders will still be watching for any signs of slowdown in digital ad spending—a canary in the coal mine if the economy starts to sputter under tariffs and tightening global conditions.
💻 Amazon and Apple: The Slow Burners
Amazon, with its big-ticket spending on AI, is playing the long game — mostly through AWS, the company’s main driver of profitability. It's aggressive, even by Big Tech standards. The problem? AWS margins are under pressure, and retail is facing the squeeze from cautious consumers.
Amazon needs to prove it can turn AI into revenue, not just headlines. Amazon’s sales and earnings per share are projected to grow 8.16% and 38.7% respectively.
Apple, meanwhile, is in the risky position of relying a bit too much on China for its products — it ships about 90% of its iPhone from Asia’s biggest economy.
And while that may be irrelevant for first-quarter results, it may weigh on the company’s outlook, considering Trump’s flip-flopping on Chinese tariffs (is tech in or is tech out?) .
The iPhone maker is expected to report $93.9 billion in revenue and $1.61 in earnings per share.
🔍 Meta and Microsoft: AI Darlings With Something to Prove
Meta reports next Wednesday, and the pressure’s on. Zuck has gone full steam into AI, pushing for everything from AI chatbots in WhatsApp to personalized content generation across Facebook and Instagram.
But here’s the kicker: Meta still makes its money from ads. And if ad budgets start shrinking in response to tariffs or a slower economy, AI investments may not save the day — at least not right away.
Meta is expected to pull in $41.3 billion in revenue and $5.24 in earnings per share.
Microsoft, on the other hand, has positioned itself as the white-collar AI whisperer. Copilot is everywhere — Office, Teams, Edge, Windows — and its $80 billion in AI infrastructure spending is squarely aimed at enterprise dominance.
It still holds a 49% stake in OpenAI, and Azure is growing, albeit slower than expected. If Microsoft can show AI adoption translating into real revenue, traders may get the breakout they’ve been waiting for.
Microsoft is expected to pick up revenue of $68.5 billion and $3.23 in earnings per share.
🤖 Nvidia: The Final Boss
Nvidia won’t report until late May, but it’s already looming over the entire earnings season. Every other tech company is spending billions on Nvidia’s chips — so when the chipmaker finally updates investors, it could swing sentiment across the entire sector.
The market wants to see that demand is real and growing, especially from hyperscalers like Microsoft, Amazon, and Google. If Nvidia disappoints, the fallout might be like watching a domino go down.
Nvidia is expected to bring home $43.1 billion in revenue and $0.90 in earnings per share.
⚙️ Final Thoughts: Big Bets, Big Risks
This isn’t just another earnings season — it’s a stress test for the Magnificent Seven amid times of big market shifts. The group that once carried the market now faces a reality check: AI is expensive, global trade is messy, and Wall Street is no longer giving out free passes for “vision.”
But where there’s risk, there’s also opportunity. Traders who can sift through the noise, spot the change in tone, and ride the next narrative — whether it’s autonomous Teslas, AI-powered spreadsheets, or ad-supported Metaverse avatars — will have the edge.
What’s your take? Which Big Tech name are you watching most closely — and are you betting on a rebound or bracing for more pain? Let’s hear it from you.
S&P500 Should the FED LEAVE POLITICS aside and finally cut??The S&P500 index (SPX, illustrated by the blue trend-line) has been under heavy selling pressure in the past 3 months, basically the start of the year, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell insisted once again yesterday that the Fed is on a wait-and-see mode, without the urge to cut rates. But can it afford not to do so?
A detailed look into the past 35 years of recorded Yield Curve (US10Y-US02Y) price action, shows that when it flattens and rebounds, the Fed steps in and cuts the interest rates (orange trend-line). It did so last year but paused/ stopped the process in an attempt to get Inflation (black trend-line) under control to the desired 2% target.
As you see on that 1M chart though, this hasn't always been beneficial for stocks as especially for September 2007 and January 2001, it took place parallel to the Housing and Dotcom Crises. This however happened both times when Inflation and Rates were both high.
The Inflation Rate now seems to be at a low level (and dropping) that has been consistent with market bottoms and not tops. As a result, it appears that it is more likely we are in a curve reversal that is consistent with bull trend continuation for the stock market, after short-term corrections, in our opinion either post March 2020 (COVID crash) or pre-2000, which is consistent to previous studies we've made that the current A.I. Bubble market is in similar early mania stages like the Dotcom Bubble in the early-mid 1990s.
So to answer the original question, we believe that the Fed can afford to cut the Interest Rates now and offset some of the medium-term slow in growth that the trade tariffs may inflict and as there are more probabilities it will do more good to the stock market than harm.
Your thoughts?
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S&P 500 - Key Levels and April 7-11 Weekly Candle StructureApril 7-11 will easily be remembered in 2025 as one of the craziest weeks in modern history.
Intraday swings were face ripping all from a Monday "fake news" becoming Wednesday "real news" with the US pausing tariffs for 90 days
5500 major resistance on S&P
4800 major support on S&P
I believe the market will struggle to provide any clear direction in the coming weeks without some shift in narrative (for better or worse). I'm sure most traders are hoping for an optimistic tone but be prepared to be disappointed as the world's alliances and economies are being strained with massive uncertainty and angst.
There are trading opportunities in the short-term, but I'm not taking any major risks. If I can survive, the upside will be easier and a pleasant surprise.
I expect the weekly candles to dance inside the April 7-11 low and high levels and hopefully it provides some ventilation to a VIX > 30
SP500 US500 update 21.04.2025 My vision until the end of AprilIf someone thinks that the bear market in the US indices has arrived, I want to show you a monthly chart that shows that the trend is still long. We got a reaction of the 0.5 Fibonacci zone. But we entered the monthly accumulation with a gradual test of the Last Structure FVG.
At this timeframe, the price has already broken the ascending structure, which means that in order to regain its ascending status, the structure needs to invert the weekly FVG, in other words, to consolidate above the 5554 level.
So far, there are no long positions, but if we look at the monthly FVG target test, we can try to find short positions when the price reaches 5554 and does not consolidate above this level
1. Trump’s Economic Vision in 2025
Introduced a 10% baseline global tariff starting April 5, 2025.
Over 25% tariffs were imposed on key trade partners like China and Mexico.
Objectives: reduce the $887B trade deficit, combat currency manipulation, and strengthen domestic industry.
Domestically, Trump extended the Tax Cuts & Jobs Act (risking a EUROTLX:4T budget deficit over 10 years) and prioritized deregulation, particularly in fossil fuels.
2. Trump’s Relationship with the Federal Reserve
Resurfaces criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, calling for interest rate cuts.
Pushed a Supreme Court case challenging the Fed’s independence, aiming to give the President authority to remove the Fed Chair.
Analysts warn this threatens central bank credibility, potentially raising long-term inflation expectations.
3. Impact of Tariffs on Economic Stability
Long-term GDP projected to fall by 6%; wages by 5% (Wharton Model).
Households face up to $5,200 in additional annual costs due to price increases.
Investment and exports decline; EU exports could drop 8% to 66%.
While benefiting sectors like steel, tariffs risk broader job losses in supply-chain industries.
4. Federal Reserve’s Challenges
The Fed navigates inflationary pressure while maintaining economic stability.
Only one rate cut expected in 2025 despite political pressure.
Tariffs complicate monetary policy by fueling external inflation and supply disruptions.
5. S&P 500 and Market Outlook
S&P 500 dropped 7% after new tariffs were announced (stagflation fears).
Despite past growth during Trump’s first term (+68%), current policies increase volatility.
Risks include reduced capital inflow, weakened Fed independence, and ongoing global retaliation.
✅ Conclusion
Donald Trump’s 2025 economic strategy hinges on aggressive tariffs and pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower rates. While intended to stimulate domestic growth, these moves contribute to inflation, challenge institutional independence, and heighten market volatility. For investors and policymakers, the path forward demands careful navigation of an economic environment shaped by protectionism, policy conflict, and fragile monetary stability.
So far, everything does not look good. I am waiting for the approval of the BTC reserve for May (next month). This could positively affect the American economy in the SHORT TERM.
Best regards, EXCAVO
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We Now Have Conditions for Limit Down Days in SPXMassive intraday pop today but it did not manage to advance much past the last high.
The size of the move today means if we had a big one day rejection of it that would now be a limit down day.
Which this specific thing does not have to happen (could down trend over a few days) break the low in this setp would give a strong case for limit down days to come.
It's not a term I use loosely.
In an optimistic outlook today we have a bullish wave 3 and the foothills of a new uptrend (or at least bull trap).
But if today rejects and turns out was a big bull trap - then we'd be about to head into the crash section of the move.
If you think it's been crashy so far - know that the second half is not slower than the first.
Crash? Here's the case for a crash.
You may have noted I can, on occasion, be a bit of a bearish guy - but I don't actually use the word "Crash" all that much. Not all bear setups are crash setups. Even when they will be, a less dramatic bear move usually happens before a crash. The times when there's actual crash risk are low - but we have a confluence of them now.
Let's run through some crash signals.
1 - Pending 1.61 break. In any self respecting crash (anyone you know by a number for sure) the crash clearly picks up on a 1.61 break. If we drop again, we threatening that break.
www.tradingview.coem
Examples:
All the good ones, and other ones. Go look. You'll find over and over a downtrend transitions to a crash under the 1.61. The 1.61 either does not break- or we crash.
We currently have a bounce off the 1.27, retest of the previous structure and possible new sell off coming - these are things that can precede a 1.61 break.
Looking at local structure, this looks like a butterfly correction. Which is often found at or before the MIDDLE of a trend (crash).
Or an ABC.
Which would predict a drop stronger and bigger than the first (crash).
Then you have things like the 200 SMA bounce, those can get sketchy if there's a new low.
...Crash.
And we have the reason. Because although the technical norms I've explained here have been features in every notable crash ever, there was always a reason. Always something that would not be foreseeable with TA and would make the crash appear to be unpredictable.
The things that just seem too weird to be true unless take time to look into them.
Like Covid being a perfect 1.61 top.
Which started similarly to what we have here.
The Covid crash would start once the 1.27 broke- which is where we are now.
Conditions for a crash now are actually realistic. Generally speaking a crash is something that it's only valid to speak of potentially in the future in the event of multiple markers hitting. Lots of things have to happen before we have real honest and true crash conditions.
Unusual things. Like trending down consistently for a couple months.
Having insanely aggressive bounces off support but not really getting anywhere.
Containing a correction inside a 2 leg structure.
...Breaking a 1.61.
See where I'm going with this?
It might happen. If the low is not made, we enter into real crash territory on the next break.
PIVOTAL DAY AHEAD FOR $SPX: Will We Reclaim the Highs or Begin tTechnical Breakdown: We’re at a critical junction for the S&P 500. After completing a 5-wave structure, SP:SPX is teetering near a decision point. Two potential paths are now unfolding:
Bullish Scenario (🟢):
A daily close above 5386 would invalidate the current bear thesis.
This opens the door to a push toward the 90–100% Fib retracement zone (5685–5750).
Short-term traders may look to ride the momentum if 5485 is broken cleanly.
Bearish Scenario (🔴):
A rejection at current levels, coupled with a close below 5386 and a gap-fill back down, confirms the bearish triangle setup.
If this plays out, we’re targeting a drop to the 4600–4400 range based on the 1.618 and 2.618 Fibonacci extensions and broken trendline dynamics.
This aligns with the Elliott Wave breakdown (W5 peak, now in corrective ABC structure).
🧩 Macro Context:
High inflows to safe havens like gold suggest rising fear.
Volatility is elevated, and liquidity is thinning post-earnings season.
💥 Conclusion: Tomorrow’s close is not just another candle – it’s a potential macro trigger. Either we confirm a final leg higher in this cycle, or the bearish wave unfolds in full.
⏳ Watch 5386 closely.
S&P500 Long and painful but necessary bottom formation.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a 2-year Bullish Megaphone pattern and the recent 2-month correction completed its latest Bearish Leg, as it reached the Higher Lows trend-line.
The massive rebound that took place there on April 07 may have turned out to be a highly volatile one but as mentioned on the title, it might be long and painful, but a necessary process nonetheless. That's mainly because it is the strongest correction since 2022 and the longest Bearish Leg of the pattern.
The market remains highly volatile until it gets a clear signal, bearish below the current Support of the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) or bullish above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Despite the rather short-term uncertainty, the similarities with the Megaphone's previous bottom are uncanny, both having formed their Low on 1D RSI Double Bottom patterns.
Given that this previous Low initiated a massive +50% 1 year Bullish Leg/ rally, we expect to see at least 7100 on this next one by mid-2026.
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Noise, S&P Scenario, Gold BubbleThank you to the tradingview community for engaging and supporting my content.
After another rough start to the week, we have a bit of a crossroads ahead for the S&P
1) We revisit the April 7 lows and poke lower with bear trap opportunities
2) We hold Monday April 21 lows and grind back up to gap fill and revisit 5400-5500 resistance
3) We go nowhere with a lot of intraday volatility and noise (between the April 7 low and the April 9 high)
The markets are on high alert
DXY
Gold
Bitcoin
US Bonds vs Treasuries (yields rising)
Trump is more vocal about threatening the FED or firing Powell and the concern is truly unprecedented
Trade War pause is still ongoing, China is being vocal as well to make sure countries don't simply line up to support the US. For all of this to calm down, US and China have to play nice. China is likely able to hold the line longer than the US in the near-term
Thanks for watching!!!
U.S. Bulls Take Charge: S&P 500 Set to Break OutHello,
📊 S&P 500 Market Outlook – Pro-Bullish Perspective
🔥 Market Recap: The S&P 500 recently saw a significant dip, marking a 1-year low at 4805.92, largely attributed to the shockwaves caused by President Trump’s sweeping tariff announcement on April 2. This move sent markets into a tailspin, creating heightened volatility levels not seen since the early pandemic days.
However, savvy traders recognized opportunity amidst the panic and entered strategic buy zones around those lows. Since then, the index has managed to stabilize above key technical levels, signaling potential bullish momentum building from the ground up.
🧭 Current Key Technical Levels to Watch:
1W Pivot Point (PP): ✅ Holding above 5224.13
1D Pivot Point (PP): ⚠️ Testing resistance at 5297.05
1M Strong Support/Resistance: ⛔ Acting as resistance at 5329.31
🚀 Bullish Confirmation Pathway:
To fully confirm a bottom-up bullish reversal, we’re looking for:
✅ Sustained close above the 1D PP @ 5297.05
✅ Break and hold above the 1M Resistance @ 5329.31
✅ Momentum toward the 1Y PP @ 5550.97
If these levels are conquered with conviction, it opens the door for an extended upside move toward 5878.58, aligning with a broader bullish sentiment.
🛑 Cautionary Downside Scenario:
Although currently less likely, a failure to maintain support above the 1W PP @ 5224.13 could reopen downside risk in the short term. We remain watchful of that level as a bull-bear pivot.
🌐 Macro Overview – Tariff Shock & Earnings Spotlight:
Trump’s abrupt tariff move has reshuffled the global economic deck, and investors are still processing its implications.
The S&P 500 is currently down ~14% from its February highs, but showing resilience.
Earnings season is now center stage, with major players like Tesla, Alphabet, IBM, and Boeing under the microscope.
⚠️ Volatility Index (VIX) is down from post-tariff highs (~60) to ~30, still elevated from the long-term median of 17.6, signaling cautious optimism.
💬 CEO Sentiment Matters:
As JJ Kinahan from IG North America noted:
“The view of CEOs going forward has never been more important.”
With traditional guidance uncertain, investors are leaning on transparent, scenario-based outlooks like United Airlines’ “dual roadmap” approach.
🔋 Magnificent Seven on Watch:
Alphabet: -20% YTD
Tesla: -40% YTD
These leaders are key sentiment barometers. If they bounce, the broader market is likely to follow.
🏛️ Fed & Trump Tensions:
Trump recently stated that Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s termination “cannot come fast enough,” pushing for rate cuts.
Powell, however, remains cautious, citing the need for more economic data before acting.
✍️ Final Note – A Cooling Tariff War?
💬 According to Trump’s latest statement, the tone around tariffs is beginning to cool, hinting at possible de-escalation.
This development adds further bullish tailwinds to the broader market outlook.
✅ Summary:
We are leaning bullish here with the base-building process in motion. Key levels are aligning, volatility is easing, and clarity from corporate earnings could be the catalyst to propel markets upward.
Watch for a clean breakout above 5329 — that’s where the real confirmation begins. Eyes on the prize: 5878.58 👀📈
The Support and Resistance outlined in green and red are the respective support/resistance for this pair currently for 1M-1Y timeframes!
No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost
TradeWithTheTrend3344
The Art of Doing Nothing: Why Tape Watchers Beat Impulse TradersLess is more. In this Idea we dig into the trading philosophy where less action means more traction. It’s the dispute between the chart readers and the button clickers.
Some swear by this: the smartest trading strategy sometimes involves sitting on your hands and embracing the sweet, underrated beauty of doing absolutely nothing. The Italians figured this out ages ago—they call it Dolce Far Niente , the sweetness of doing nothing.
But can a trader really get away with just kicking back and waiting while sipping espresso (or the mezcal martini type if you got your Patagonia vest)? Actually, yes—and it often pays better than impulsive clicks.
Let’s talk about why chart-watching and tape-reading often outsmart trigger-happy trading.
🤷♂️ Doing Nothing Is Harder Than It Looks
First off, let’s acknowledge something painfully true: not trading is tough. Seriously tough. Trading never sleeps, notifications flash at you like slot machines. Headlines constantly scream about massive opportunities you're missing — Tesla's NASDAQ:TSLA latest rally or gold’s OANDA:XAUUSD record-breaking surge powered by tariff jitters.
The pressure to click, buy, sell, or do something—anything!—can be overwhelming. It’s why there’s something called a heatmap — because it’s hot, hot, hot!
But here’s the secret: successful traders know that impulse trading isn't a strategy; it's just financial caffeine. Instead, chart watchers—the cool-headed crowd who sit back, patiently observing price movements, market structure, and volume flow—tend to win the marathon, while impulse traders burn out in the sprint.
🌸 The Dolce Far Niente Method
Ever watched an old Italian movie? There's usually a scene featuring someone lounging effortlessly, soaking in life’s beauty without lifting a finger—this is Dolce Far Niente.
In trading terms, it’s the act of patiently waiting, savoring the calm between trades, watching your charts like an old-school tape reader that would make Jesse Livermore proud. (“A prudent speculator never argues with the tape. Markets are never wrong, opinions often are.”)
A good setup is worth the wait. Instead of diving into trades, relax, observe, and let opportunities come to you. Because the reality is, not every candlestick needs your immediate response. Markets don’t reward hyperactivity; they reward patience and calculated action.
🤩 Tape Reading vs. Trading: The Difference Between Winning and Clicking
The lost art of tape reading, as hedge fund guru Paul Tudor Jones calls it, is about carefully tracking price action, volume, and market sentiment. It’s far less exciting than rapid-fire day trading but potentially more rewarding.
“When it comes to trading macro,” Tudor Jones says, “you cannot rely solely on fundamentals; you have to be a tape reader, which is something of a lost art form.
Learning when to sit quietly (doing nothing) and when to strike decisively is the hallmark of trading mastery.
✋ Real Traders Don’t Chase—They Anticipate
Waiting isn’t passive. It’s actually active restraint—a calculated choice to do nothing until the odds tip decidedly in your favor. Let’s be clear: chart watchers aren’t asleep at the wheel; they're carefully steering clear of trouble until clear setups emerge.
The result? Better entry points, clearer risk-reward ratios, and fewer sleepless nights worrying about impulsive mistakes.
“The trick in investing is just to sit there and watch pitch after pitch go by and wait for the one right in your sweet spot. And if people are yelling, ‘Swing, you bum!,’ ignore them.” Bonus points if you know who said that!
So, next time your finger hovers over that "buy" or "sell" button, ask yourself if you’re trading strategically or just for the dopamine hit. Remember the Italian saying, take a breath, embrace the tranquility, and let patience become your trading superpower.
Let us know in the comments: Are you team “click less, wait more,” or do you find yourself riding the impulse wave fairly frequently?
5800 Would le Optimal for a Bear SetupThe market is fast and ATR is high so I make sure I have plans to both sides so as not to be caught out, but realistically I've done hardly any trading since the day we dropped 6% and the rallied to retest the high. That was the last day I took big positions (longs which hit trailing stops for 300 points) and since then I've been mainly watching.
Spectating rather than speculating. There are times to make money and times to lose it, it's good to know the difference between them.
In a simple bear trend, we could see a high here somewhere in the 5200 - 5300 range - but to best suit the things I expect to see in a good bull trap before a real drop, I'd like to 5800.
SPX at 5800 would convince me to start trying to trade big positions short again.
S&P500 Long then Short: Last Wave 5 of 5In this video, I updated the wave counts for S&P500 and expects a last wave 5 of 5 (thus the long). I uses 2 Fibonacci extensions to project the final target and chose the lower of the target as the TP.
Once the target is reached, then we look for a reversal signal before entering short. The target of the short will be the end of sub-wave 4 as illustrated.
Good luck!
$SPX Bull/Bear Line in the Sand – Fireworks Ahead?The S&P 500 ( SP:SPX ) is sitting just below a clear resistance level—a true bull/bear line in the sand.
On the one hand, bulls are eyeing a potential breakout into the weekend that could ignite a short squeeze or continuation rally. 🎆 On the other, Deutsche Bank, the last of the major bulls, has thrown in the towel—cutting their year-end target from 7,000 to 6,150 amid economic concerns.
This is where things get interesting. If we break above this resistance with volume, expect upside momentum. If not… this could be the start of a deeper rollover.
👉 Watch that overhead line closely. It's the fuse. 💣
🟢 Breakout = bull party
🔴 Rejection = potential for bearish reversal
Déjà Vu: 2025 Tariffs Mirror 2018 Trade War PlaybookThe economic strategy behind the new wave of tariffs bears an unmistakable resemblance to the 2018–2020 U.S.–China trade conflict. That’s no coincidence. Peter Navarro, the architect of the 2018 tariff playbook under President Trump, has once again stepped into a key role shaping trade policy in Trump’s second term.
In 2018, the Trump administration launched a phased escalation of tariffs, starting with targeted duties on Chinese imports and expanding into broader measures that disrupted global supply chains. By Q4 2018, the S&P 500 had fallen nearly 20%, while tech-heavy names like NVIDIA plunged over 50% amid valuation compression, supply chain fears, and geopolitical stress.
Peter Navarro’s re-emergence signals that this isn’t just about political posturing. Known for his hardline stance on China and focus on economic nationalism, Navarro treats tariffs not as negotiation tools but as long-term policy. In 2018, that posture drove escalation until the market forced a pause.
Now in 2025, we’re watching the same script unfold almost beat for beat:
1. Start with China
2. Expand globally
3. Soften the global rhetoric to isolate China
4. Target key sectors (semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, energy)
5. Start the media misdirection to work behind the scenes with China
6. Set up a “deal” under market pressure
In 2025, the market again entered bear territory but staged a brief recovery after a pause in reciprocal tariffs. As of April 21, 2025, the index sits 16% off its February high and still in a downtrend.
Now, looking at the charts, here where things begin to take shape. Let’s start with the 2018 chart (figure 1). Like previously mentioned, back in 2018, the S&P 500 dropped over 20% between September and December, finding the bottom at a key support from 20 months prior (Q1 2017). The first gray box represents 10 weeks from the 2018 high. The 10 weeks is important because we are currently 10 weeks off the 2025 high, so this first gray box shows historically where we are today relative to the 2018 prices. The second gray box represents the 3 remaining weeks of drawdown, which was roughly 10%.
Figure 1
Now looking at the 2025 chart (figure 2), we have the same 10-week gray box marked up, and the additional 3-week, 10% drawdown, gray box that follows. Coincidentally, or not, the bottom of the second gray box aligns almost perfectly with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from the 2022 swing low to the 2025 high (figure 3). Even more interesting, that support level also ties back to the September 2023 high—roughly 20 months prior. Sound familiar?
Figure 2
Figure 3
I will be watching that 4500 level for SPX over the next few weeks as Trump and Navarro are preparing to roll out more sector-specific tariffs in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, Jerome Powell is facing renewed pressure, including calls to step down—again, nearly identical to the rhetoric from late 2018.
Currently, markets are pricing in just a 10% chance of a rate cut, according to Kalshi. But if the market continues to slide, Navarro and Trump may dial up pressure on the Fed to act. A rate cut in early May could mark the market bottom—just like Powell’s dovish pivot did in early 2019.
If the 2018 blueprint holds, we’re in the middle innings. Tariffs are broadening, the market is reacting, and the Fed is being boxed in. The coming weeks may test the 0.618 Fib level on the S&P 500. If Powell pivots and rhetoric softens, we may find a low—and history will have rhymed, if not outright repeated. If Powell stays strong, then Trump and Navarro may publicly pull back and take negotiations behind closed doors.
I don’t see this is being just being coincidental. This seems to be following a very familiar playbook.
Spring Loaded Wedge? Let the setup come to you! $SPXLowkey top watch for the next few weeks!
It was a chop zone last week = consolidation? Now zooming out, it’s looking like a loaded wedge/flag forming. A lot of bearish sentiment, tariff talks and unknown lately but this is looking mighty interesting of a formation. Volume also slowly declining, wondering if we’re setting up for once a decision/mutual agreement is made with US, China + others involved.
Green ray is my ENTRY: 5372.44
*Also eyeing 5329.66*
- For potential upside. We have a few gams above to also fill and can magnet upwards if we get news, volume etc.
Looking for the banger* here - of course, things are still brewing. Note this is the HOURLY timeframe. Wait for the setup to come!
Let me know your thoughts! Appreciate any insight. Do your DD! #NFA AMEX:SPY SP:SPX
SPX500 (4H) LONG POSITIONGreeting there traders this is my idea on SP500 and it is Long.
We can clearly see a recovery from the “Support Area” (yellow zone), after a wave formation (probably a completed Elliott Wave correction).
You are currently in a very impulsive uptrend.
Momentum looks strong, with no major retracements — meaning that buyers would currently be in a dominating position.
Key Levels
Support Level (red): 5.019 – 5.091
This is the “ultima ratio” zone where the price made a strong rebound.
Softer Support: 5.276 – 5.282 (where you are now)
This is the zone of possible correction, as you marked.
Resistance/Target: 6.150 – 6.156
If the current trend holds and there is no major retracement below 5,250, it is very likely that we will test the 6,000–6,150 level in the coming days.
The price is currently in a “blast-off” phase — if volume remains strong, you can hit the TP as early as late April or early May.
I predict that we have started an uptrend towards a new ATH. I believe that the market will start to "fly" already on Monday or Tuesday. Possible catalysts: Trump strikes a deal with China, announces a pause in the trade war, or Powell responds with an emergency rate cut.
My goal is mid $6,000 to low $7,000 by July 4th (maybe sooner). After that I expect a 60-70% drop.
More down for SPX500USDHi traders,
SPX500USD consolidated the whole week last week.
So next week we could see the start of the last impulse wave down to finish the bigger (red) WXY correction.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for a small correction up on a lower timeframe to trade shorts.
If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with Wave analysis, then please make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
What Is the McClellan Oscillator (NYMO), and How to Use ItWhat Is the McClellan Oscillator (NYMO), and How to Use It in Trading?
The McClellan Oscillator is a widely used market breadth indicator that helps traders analyse momentum and market strength. It focuses on the relationship between advancing and declining stocks, offering unique insights beyond price movements. This article explains how the McClellan Oscillator works, its interpretation, and how it compares to other tools.
What Is the McClellan Oscillator?
The McClellan Oscillator is a market breadth indicator that traders use to measure momentum in stock market indices. It’s calculated based on the Advance/Decline Line, which tracks the net number of advancing stocks (those rising in price) minus declining stocks (those falling in price) over a given period.
The NYSE McClellan Oscillator is the most common variant, often called the NYMO indicator. However, it can also be applied to any other stock index, like the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, or FTSE 100.
Here’s how it works: the indicator uses two exponential moving averages (EMAs) of the advance/decline data—a 19-day EMA for short-term trends and a 39-day EMA for long-term trends. The difference between these two EMAs gives you the oscillator’s value. Positive readings mean more stocks are advancing than declining, pointing to bullish momentum. Negative readings suggest the opposite, with bearish sentiment dominating.
What makes the McClellan indicator particularly useful is its ability to highlight shifts in market momentum that might not be obvious from price movements alone. For example, even if a stock index is rising, a declining indicator could signal that fewer stocks are participating in the rally—a potential warning of weakening breadth.
This indicator is versatile and works well across various timeframes, but it’s particularly popular for analysing daily or weekly market trends. While it’s not designed to provide direct buy or sell signals, it helps traders identify when markets are gaining or losing momentum,
Understanding the Advance/Decline Line
The Advance/Decline (A/D) Line is a market breadth indicator that tracks the difference between the number of advancing stocks and declining stocks. It’s calculated cumulatively, adding each day’s net result to the previous total. This gives a running tally that reflects the broader participation of stocks in a market’s movement, rather than just focusing on a handful of large-cap stocks.
When the A/D Line shows consistent strength or weakness, the McClellan Oscillator amplifies this data, making it potentially easier to spot underlying trends in market breadth. In essence, the A/D Line provides the raw data, while the McClellan refines it into actionable insights.
How to Calculate the McClellan Oscillator
The McClellan Oscillator formula effectively smooths out the daily fluctuations in the A/D data, allowing traders to focus on broader shifts in momentum.
Here’s how it’s calculated:
- Calculate the 19-day EMA of the A/D line (short-term trend).
- Calculate the 39-day EMA of the A/D line (long-term trend).
- Subtract the 39-day EMA from the 19-day EMA. The result is the McClellan Oscillator’s value.
Giving the formula:
- McClellan Oscillator = 19-day EMA of A/D - 39-day EMA of A/D
The result is a line that fluctuates around a midpoint. In practice, a trader might apply the McClellan Oscillator to the S&P 500 on a daily or weekly timeframe, providing insights for trading.
Interpretation of the Oscillator’s Values
- Positive values occur when the 19-day EMA is above the 39-day EMA, indicating that advancing stocks dominate and the market has bullish momentum.
- Negative values occur when the 19-day EMA is below the 39-day EMA, reflecting a bearish trend with declining stocks in control.
- A value near zero suggests balance, where advancing and declining stocks are roughly equal.
Signals Generated
The indicator is popular for identifying shifts in momentum and potential trend changes.
Overbought and Oversold Conditions
- Readings at or above +100 typically indicate an overbought market, where the upward momentum may be overextended.
- Readings at or below -100 suggest an oversold market, with the potential for a recovery.
Crossing Zero
When the indicator crosses above or below zero, it can indicate shifts in market sentiment, with traders often monitoring these transitions closely.
Divergences
- A positive divergence occurs when the indicator rises while the index declines, signalling potential bullish momentum building.
- A negative divergence happens when the indicator falls while the index rises, hinting at weakening momentum.
Using the McClellan Oscillator With Other Indicators
The McClellan Oscillator is a valuable tool for analysing market breadth, but its insights become even more powerful when combined with other indicators. Pairing it with complementary tools can help traders confirm signals, refine their analysis, and better understand overall market conditions.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) measures the strength and speed of price movements, identifying overbought or oversold conditions. While the McClellan Oscillator focuses on market breadth, using RSI along with it can provide confirmation. For example, if both indicators show overbought conditions, it strengthens the case for a potential market pullback.
Moving Averages
Simple or exponential moving averages of price data can help confirm trends identified by the McClellan Oscillator. For instance, if it signals bullish momentum and the index moves above its moving average, this alignment may suggest stronger market conditions.
Volume Indicators (e.g., On-Balance Volume)
Volume is a key component of market analysis. Combining the Oscillator with volume-based indicators can clarify whether breadth signals are supported by strong participation, improving the reliability of momentum shifts.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands measure volatility and provide insight into price ranges. When combined with the McClellan Oscillator, they can help traders assess whether market breadth signals align with overextended price movements, providing additional context.
VIX (Volatility Index)
The VIX measures market sentiment and fear. Cross-referencing it with the McClellan Oscillator can reveal whether market breadth momentum aligns with changes in risk appetite, offering a deeper understanding of sentiment shifts.
Comparing the McClellan Oscillator With Related Indicators
The McClellan Oscillator, McClellan Summation Index, and Advance/Decline Ratio all provide insights into market breadth, but they differ in focus and application.
McClellan Oscillator vs McClellan Summation Index
While the Oscillator measures short-term momentum using the difference between 19-day and 39-day EMAs of the Advance/Decline (A/D) Line, the McClellan Summation Index takes a longer-term perspective. It is a cumulative total of the Oscillator's daily values, creating a broader view of market trends.
Think of the Summation Index as the "big picture" complement to the Oscillator's granular analysis. Traders often use the Summation Index to track longer-term trends and identify major turning points, while the Oscillator is more popular when monitoring immediate momentum shifts and overbought/oversold conditions.
McClellan Oscillator vs Advance/Decline Ratio
The Advance/Decline Ratio is a simpler calculation, dividing the number of advancing stocks by the number of declining stocks. While it provides a snapshot of market breadth, it lacks the depth of analysis offered by the McClellan Oscillator.
The Oscillator refines raw A/D data with exponential moving averages, smoothing out noise and making it potentially easier to identify meaningful trends and divergences. The A/D Ratio, on the other hand, is more reactive and generally better suited for short-term intraday signals.
Advantages and Limitations of the McClellan Oscillator
The McClellan Oscillator is a powerful tool for analysing market breadth, but like any indicator, it has strengths and weaknesses. Understanding both can help traders decide how best to integrate it into their analysis.
Advantages
- Focus on Market Breadth: By analysing the Advance/Decline data, the indicator provides a clearer picture of how many stocks are participating in a trend, not just the performance of index heavyweights.
- Momentum Insights: Its ability to highlight shifts in short-term momentum allows traders to spot potential turning points before they become evident in price action.
- Identification of Divergences: It excels at identifying divergences between market breadth and price, offering early signals of weakening trends or upcoming reversals.
- Overbought/Oversold Signals: Its range helps traders analyse extreme conditions (+100/-100), which can signal potential market corrections or recoveries.
Limitations
- Not a Standalone Tool: The indicator is combined with other indicators or broader analysis, as it doesn’t provide specific entry or exit signals.
- False Signals in Volatile Markets: During periods of high volatility or low trading volume, the oscillator may generate misleading signals, making context crucial.
- Short-Term Focus: While excellent for momentum analysis, it doesn’t provide the long-term perspective offered by tools like the McClellan Summation Index.
The Bottom Line
The McClellan Oscillator is a powerful tool for analysing market breadth, helping traders gain insights into momentum and potential market shifts. While not a standalone solution, it is often combined with other indicators for a well-rounded approach.
FAQ
What Is a NYMO Oscillator?
The NYMO oscillator, short for the New York McClellan Oscillator, is a market breadth indicator based on the Advance/Decline stock data of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). The NYMO index calculates the difference between a 19-day and 39-day exponential moving average (EMA) of the Advance/Decline line, providing insights into stock market momentum and sentiment.
What Does the McClellan Oscillator Show?
The McClellan Oscillator shows the balance of advancing and declining stocks in a market. Positive values indicate bullish momentum, while negative values reflect bearish sentiment. It’s often used to identify potential shifts in momentum or divergences between market breadth and price.
What Is the McClellan Oscillator in MACD?
The McClellan Oscillator and MACD are distinct indicators, but both use moving averages. While MACD measures price momentum, the Oscillator focuses on market breadth by analysing the Advance/Decline Line.
What Is the McClellan Summation Indicator?
The McClellan Summation Index is a cumulative version of the McClellan Oscillator. It provides a broader view of market trends, tracking long-term momentum and overall market strength.
What Is the Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator?
The Nasdaq McClellan Oscillator, sometimes called the NAMO, applies the same calculation as the NYMO but uses Advance/Decline data from the Nasdaq exchange. It helps traders analyse momentum and breadth in technology-heavy markets.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): LONG to resistance area of 5682.Colleagues, I think that the deep downward movement is over and at the moment I expect an upward movement in a five-wave impulse. At the moment I expect a correction in wave “2” to the area of 5100, after which I expect the development of wave “3” at least to the resistance area of 5682.
There are two possible ways to enter the position:
1) Market entry
2) Pending Limit Orders.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!