US500FU trade ideas
S&P 500 Faces Increased Bearish Pressure as Trade War BeginsThe S&P 500 has formed a downtrend channel following the break below the 5700 support level. Trump's new aggressive tariff policy raised the minimum tariff on China to 54%, while China responded with equally aggressive 34% tariffs. The trade war has now officially begun.
This escalation is clearly negative for the stock market. Recession risks have risen significantly, and it remains uncertain how much the Fed can cut rates while tariff-driven inflationary pressures persist. Rapid rate cuts could help soften the slowdown but may also risk fueling another inflation surge. That would be the more optimistic case for equities. However, the Fed is likely to proceed cautiously, suggesting that bearish pressure could continue for several quarters.
In the short term, the downward trend remains intact. If the S&P 500 breaks the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, it may decline further toward the lower boundary of the new trend channel, where a potential bounce could occur. As long as the trend holds, bears remain in control.
Note: Powell is expected to speak today. His remarks carry even more weight following the tariff moves by both the U.S. and China.
Hank Tough - Long ride down to 4,514 for US500Even with better than expect numbers with NFP.
The matter remains that the world is not on great terms with MAGAs Tariff plan. Tariffs are in an indirect way a threat when it comes to trade wars.
Because, there'll need to be reciprocals and larger measures to make up for the mess.
Apparently, the calculations of the tariffs was to make up for the trade deficit, but it means that there'll need to ACTUALLY be the same amount or more of exports - which we know won't happen as there are two types of goods.
Elastic - Where the price and demand and supply changes.
Inelastic - where they a don't change much.
Right now there is a LARGE Inverse Cup and Handle forming on the daily with the price below 20 and 200 - showing strong downside to come.
So, we can expect looking at the pattern to continue to 4,514.
'Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Thoughts?
SPX 10% in 48hrsSometimes a good trade is no trade in itself. That being said.
Historically RARE we don't get a relief rally but we need the fed.
The market will look for the Fed to provide answers.
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Fear and Greed index
Technicals oversold
VIX
Money rotation showing signs of a turn.
XLY/XLP at the back end of January shows weakening of the US consumer.
Are Time and Reason in Harmony in SPX?Are Time and Reason in Harmony in SPX?
S&P 1D Technical and Fundamental Analysis;
This structure, which looks like an ordinary decline on the SPX daily chart ... in fact, we can say that it carries the pieces of a big scenario that develops synchronously both technically and fundamentally.
Let me explain now;
5 December 2024 was not just a breaking point. Because Trump's statements after taking the presidency for the second time, especially the message that ‘customs walls may rise’ had become clear.
In the same week, the uptrend in SPX quickly weakened and declined as the FED gave the message ‘Interest rate cut is not imminent’.
From here, Bullish Sharq started the formation of harmonic formation.
Now comes the week of 1 May.
- FED's interest rate decision,
- Trump's budget plan,
- And one of the critical macro thresholds where company balance sheets are announced.
While everything is going well so far, if we take into account that the chart will also touch a strong trend line, it may mean ‘either a bounce or a collapse from here’.
Because the price in the market does not just move, it looks for reasons .
I would also like to ask you here;
What will greet the market when this date comes?
Harsh interest rate rhetoric?
Trump's aggressive economic agenda?
Or a recovery supported by positive balance sheets?
Tariffs Drop, SPX Slips, I Sip TeaTariffs Drop, SPX Slips, I Sip Tea | SPX Analysis 04 April 2025
Tariffs are back on the menu, and Wall Street’s not exactly throwing confetti.
Trump’s talking tough again, markets are wincing, gold is surging, and Bitcoin - being Bitcoin - couldn’t care less.
But me?
I’m grinning like the cat that shorted the cream.
The plan said:
Stay bearish below 5700.
Get aggressive below 5500.
Add bear pulse bars and Tag ‘n Turn entries on any decent rally.
That wasn’t guesswork. That was structure.
And so far, it’s working like clockwork. ⏰
My income swings are ticking over nicely, I’m not rushing anything, and I’m sipping tea while stocks tumble. If we continue this slide into Friday, I’ll be adding more with a gleam in my eye and a sneaky Newton quote at the ready…
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Gravity's Pull – And A Little Newtonian Swagger
Overnight futures are down again - not panic-sell levels, but that smooth, sinister kind of selling we like to see when we’re positioned right.
If the market decides to tumble out the apple tree altogether?
You’ll hear me shouting:
"HOW DO YOU LIKE THEM THERE APPLES?"
And rightly so - because this isn’t luck.
It’s directional structure meets mechanical setups, seasoned with a little GEX wizardry.
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Expert Insights – Trade the Plan, Not the Panic
When headlines scream, traders often get twitchy.
But this week is proving (again) that reaction is no match for preparation.
✅ Bear swings don’t need news. They just need structure.
✅ Sell the rallies – not your conviction.
✅ GEX often shows you where the market might want to pin – and when you can hit that sweet spot with a Bulls Eye butterfly, the payoff is huge.
The secret?
Plan the trade. Execute with structure. And don’t flinch.
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Fun Fact
Sir Isaac Newton – the original gravity guy – lost over £20,000 (millions today) in the South Sea Bubble of 1720.
His famous quote?
“I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people.”
He’d have loved the GEX data.
And probably traded options too.
(With a monocle. While sipping tea.)
Happy trading,
Phil
Less Brain, More Gain
…and may your trades be smoother than a cashmere codpiece
p.s. Ready to Profit While Others Panic?
Markets are flinching.
Most traders are reacting.
But the SPX Income System? It’s executing. Like a machine.
✅ Sell the rallies
✅ Tag the turns
✅ Bank income swings without flinching
Join the Fast Forward Mentorship – trade live, twice a week, with me and the crew. PLUS Monthly on-demand 1-2-1's
Or watch the free training to see the SPX Income System in action.
No fluff. Just profits, pulse bars, and patterns that actually work.
LINK IN BIO
SPX In Free Fall. How Much More Pain Do We Have Coming?Hey my fellow traders and followers, hope all is well with you and your trading?
Let me shed some light on the dark times ahead.
I know some of you are asking ; How much more pain do we have to endure? Well, I'm here to give my opinion on what I see in the daily SPX/USD chart.
Like it or not we have another leg down to go. Sorry. We have on the chart a Head & Shoulder, or Inverted V pattern, Bearflag pattern after the first round of distribution. Second distribution will show in another leg down to 5343.4 area which will be our TP-1. TP-2 is ready for it?------
4981 area. Long ways to go yet. I see this playing out until anywhere from April 23 to April 30th.
Whether you want to believe this possibility or not, please be careful with your bias. Remember the Daily and Weekly are still bearish so understand the depth we can fall. My job is to tip you off on what is possible. Until next time please trade carefully if you choose as the market is in wide wide price swings that keep hitting retail trader's stops in both directions. If you are going to trade, trade the smaller TF's to avoid blowing up your account.
Best of luck in all your trades.
Cheers!
TrumpFall in the Market due to Reciprocal Tariffs.By Ion Jauregui - Analyst ActivTrades
The announcement of new reciprocal tariffs by President Donald Trump has triggered an immediate reaction in the markets, causing dizzying drops in various companies since the beginning of the week. The measure has generated an environment of high volatility, with investors seeking refuge in the face of growing instability.
Most Affected Companies and Sectors
- Technology and Semiconductors
• Apple Inc. has seen its shares fall by more than 15% during the week, affected by its dependence on global supply chains.
• Amazon and Meta: Both tech giants have seen declines of about 9%, driven by fears over international exposure and rising tariff costs.
• Nvidia and other companies in the semiconductor sector: They have posted even larger declines, reflecting this sector's sensitivity to trade uncertainty.
- Automotive and Aerospace
• Tesla Inc.: The electric vehicle maker has plunged nearly 20%, driven by concerns about rising production costs and competition from local manufacturing.
• Boeing Co: Shares have fallen around 18% on concerns about potential disruptions to its supply chain and the impact of new trade barriers.
- Industrials and Conglomerates
• General Electric: The conglomerate has seen its share price fall by around 16%, as its extensive global operations are threatened by the tightening of trade policies.
- Transportation & Logistics
• AP Moller Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd: The shipping companies have suffered sharp declines, reflecting the sector's sensitivity to global trade dynamics and tariff measures.
- Energy
• Chevron and TotalEnergies: Oil prices have fallen by 5% following the unexpected increase in supply by OPEC+, causing significant losses for these oil companies, which are facing an environment of uncertainty and adjustments in the energy markets.
- Financial Sector
• Asian Banks: Although no specific names are mentioned, several banks in Asia have experienced pronounced volatility, being affected by the environment of uncertainty and concerns about asset quality in the region.
• Small cap indices: The Russell 2000, which groups smaller U.S. companies, has fallen 6.6% and accumulated a loss of over 20% since its record high in November, also reflecting the sensitivity of the financial sector in the current environment.
S&P500 Analysis
Looking at the one hour chart we can see that since April 2nd, a lower bell curve has already started, despite the fact that the Price Control Point (POC) is located in the area where it was trading in the early hours of yesterday's Asian trading day at around 5624 points.
This fall related to the news has caused the markets to discount the price by -6.84% and around 2.34% at yesterday's American opening. As soon as the U.S. session began, the conditions were in place again to continue the fall that seemed to have slowed down during the European day, but it was only a bearish consolidation. At this moment, the US premarket seems to have stopped the fall that generated a third bell in the Asian session.
Checking the RSI, it has moved from 70% on Wednesday at 18:00 to 23% in today's Asian session. So it could be that today's day will not be as black as yesterday's, but for the moment the bearish mid-range crossover started on Wednesday has only expanded. As for the average volume on both day 2 and 3 the volume has been similar to the openings of other days, so in this sense it is not something that can reveal additional information but only represents that this fall is the result of the “power of fear of tariffs in the market”.
A Global Landscape of Uncertainty
Trump's announcement has generated a ripple effect in international markets. In the United States, investors are skeptical about the economy's ability to withstand these shocks, which has prompted a search for refuge in assets considered safer, such as Treasury bonds and defensive sectors (consumer staples, healthcare, telecommunications and utilities).
Uncertainty is spreading globally: the Nasdaq has fallen by 5.4% and the Nasdaq 100 has lost 17% of its value since its peak in February. In international markets, indices such as the Nikkei 225 and the TOPIX in Japan have registered declines of 3.3% and 4.2% respectively, demonstrating the global scope of the instability.
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SPX 500SPX is looking bearish also. We will soon see major decline given the targets as shown in analysis.
Stay Safe!
Sharing your Analysis down below will help us understand financial markets better...
Head & Shoulder Breakdown: Will S&P 500 Drop Another 10%?● The S&P 500 has experienced significant volatility recently, mainly due to President Donald Trump's announcement of new tariffs.
● On April 3, 2025, the index saw a nearly 5% drop, its worst single-day loss in five years.
● The recent price action suggests that the index has broken below the neckline of the Head and Shoulder pattern, indicating a potential continuation of the downward trend.
◉ Key support levels to watch
● 1st Support - 5,200 - 5,250
● 2nd Support - 4,950 - 5,000
SPX: When things get scary, get ready!Wave C of 4 is ongoing and quite emotional. Wave B didn't quite get high enough, so chance of a larger C wave is high. This could last for a few days to a few months depending on how long this trade shenanigans continue. But, ultimately I don't think this will be a permanent situation and once things settle, markets will recover strongly. The underlying economic strength is still intact and there is still a lot of money in the system. If the Fed does start to cut the interest rates, it will initially boost the stock market but will weaken the economic conditions significantly. That might play out the final blow off top narrative perfectly. But for now, plan is to start nibbling on SPY when SPX gets inside the box. Some kind of butterfly strategy to limit the downside risk would be the play. Below 4100 will be the time to really panic!
This is just the appetizerIf you think a 4% drop is the end, think again. Save your cash unless you want to short the market. We haven’t seen real action such as a market halt or two before it is time to think about putting cash into action. Be warned
Trump Goes 'Cynosure' of All Eyes as He Walked Into '1930' RoomThe Striking Parallels Between Trump's 2025 Tariffs and the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930
The recent trade policies under President Trump's second administration bear remarkable similarities to the controversial Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, both in approach and potential consequences. These parallels offer important historical lessons about protectionist trade policies.
Protectionist Foundations and Scope
Both trade initiatives share fundamentally protectionist motivations aimed at shielding American industries from foreign competition. The Smoot-Hawley Act increased import duties by approximately 20% with the initial goal of protecting struggling U.S. farmers from European agricultural imports. Similarly, Trump's 2025 trade agenda explicitly aims at "backing the United States away from integration with the global economy and steering the country toward becoming more self-contained".
What began as targeted protections in both eras quickly expanded in scope. While Smoot-Hawley initially focused on agricultural protections, industry lobbyists soon demanded similar protections for their sectors. Trump's tariffs have followed a comparable pattern, beginning with specific sectors but rapidly expanding to affect a broad range of imports, with projected tariffs exceeding $1.4 trillion by April 2025—nearly four times the $380 billion imposed during his first administration.
Specific Tariff Examples
The parallel implementation approaches are notable:
Trump imposed a 25% global tariff on steel and aluminum products effective March 12, 2025
Trump raised tariffs on all Chinese imports to 20% on March 4, 2025
Trump imposed 25% tariffs on most Canadian and Mexican goods
Smoot-Hawley increased overall import duties by approximately 20%
Smoot-Hawley raised the average import tax on foreign goods to about 40% (following the Fordney-McCumber Act of 1922)
Global Retaliation and Economic Consequences
Perhaps the most striking similarity is the international backlash. The Smoot-Hawley tariffs triggered retaliatory measures from over 25 countries, dramatically reducing global trade and worsening the Great Depression. Trump's 2025 tariffs have already prompted counter-tariffs from major trading partners:
China responded with 15% tariffs on U.S. coal and liquefied natural gas, and 10% on oil and agricultural machines
Canada implemented 25% tariffs on approximately CA$30 billion of U.S. goods
The European Union announced tariffs on €4.5 billion of U.S. consumer goods and €18 billion of U.S. steel and agricultural products
Expert Opposition
Both policies faced significant opposition from economic experts. More than 1,000 economists urged President Hoover to veto the Smoot-Hawley Act.
Trump's 2025 tariffs? Reaction is coming yet...
Potential Economic Impact
The historical record suggests caution. The Smoot-Hawley Act is "now widely blamed for worsening the severity of the Great Depression in the U.S. and around the world". Trump's "more audacious intervention" similarly carries "potentially seismic consequences for jobs, prices, diplomatic relations and the global trading system".
These striking parallels between trade policies nearly a century apart demonstrate that economic nationalism and retaliatory trade cycles remain persistent challenges in international commerce, with historical lessons that remain relevant today.
Stock market Impact
Just watch the graph..
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Best wishes,
Your Beloved @PandorraResearch Team 😎
Trading spx with ict conceptsTook my trade after i saw a rejection from the 8:30 open and on the 1min we had a change of character and a 1 min fvg being respected.
The Trade War Strikes Back: Market Reeling from Trump’s Tariff MThe markets are not taking Trump’s new round of tariffs lightly.
As the S&P 500 dips sharply, investors are reacting to the growing tension between the U.S. and China over trade policy. The new tariffs have ignited fears of a prolonged trade war, sending shockwaves through tech-heavy sectors and dragging major names like NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:MSFT , NASDAQ:AAPL , and NASDAQ:AMZN deep into the red.
📉 What we're seeing:
SP500 is breaking recent support with heavy volume.
Tech sector is leading the sell-off, especially chipmakers and global exporters.
Uncertainty is pushing investors toward safety, further increasing volatility.
🧠 Key takeaway: This is more than a dip—it’s policy risk priced in real time. Until there's clarity, traders should prepare for more erratic moves. Short-term sentiment has clearly flipped bearish.
💬 Are you buying the fear or staying out of the storm?
Opening (IRA): SPX May 16th 5130/5160/5850/5880 Iron Condor... for a 10.20 credit.
Comments: High IVR/IV >21. Hesitant to add more long delta here, so going delta neutral in SPX and structuring the trade such that I receive one-third the width of the wings (30) in credit.
Metrics:
Buying Power Effect: 19.80
Max Profit: 10.20
ROC at Max: 51.52%
50% Max: 5.10
ROC at 50% Max: 25.8%
Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, rolling down oppositional side on side test, but won't hesitate to take profit quickly if IV crushes in dramatically post "Liberation Day."
S&P 30m 50day SMA chart predictorUsing this simple 50sma on a 30min chart one can see when to go long or short trading Bove or below that line respectively.
I Learned from Trader Brian Jones on twitter. He’s a beast!!!
Strong Buying Zone with Confident The Green 4h Zone Acts as Strong Buying Zone.
The Blue Zone POC/IC (Point Of Interest or Institutional Candle) is weak Support now since it been tested before.
The Fresh Zone is the Green 4h which acts as Decent Support Zone.
We have two Scenarios indicating Buyers step in Strongly Within Green Buying Zone:
Scenarios One: strong buying volume reversal Candle.
Scenarios Two: Fake Break-Out of green Buying Zone.
Both indicate Buyers Stepping in strongly.
Once One Showed Up a safe entry would be 50% Fibo from the buying Candle at 1h TF.
Regards,
Take care.
Exit while you canThere will most likely be a market halt some time this week and next week. Watch out. Cash is king!
3/4/25 Trump Reciprocal Tariffs
Yesterday's candlestick opened lower but reversed to close as a big bull bar in its upper half with a prominent tail above.
However, the market traded significantly lower after the market closed. The market will open lower than the March 13 low today.
Again, the bulls hope buyers are below the gap down, similar to March 31st and yesterday April 2nd.
They want any follow-through selling to be limited, and the market to trade up after that.
The bears hope to get follow-through selling after a brief pullback. They want the market to close near its low.
Usually, when the market is opening significantly lower, which means that there are a lot of sell orders at the open.
The market makers have to quote a price they are willing to buy for the stocks that they are trading. Usually, that price is near the day's low.
So, at the open, if you are buying stocks that are gapping down, you are buying with the market maker.
After the market opens, if there is no fresh selling, the market may then slowly float up, letting the market maker slowly clear off their position (remember, they bought at the open, buying when everyone has put an order to sell at the open).
However, if there is fresh selling, the market then may continue to sell off after a brief pullback. If this is the case, then it can be a bearish day.
The reason is that the market maker has been caught long at the open, and the fresh selling continues to push prices past their entry.
The next price they would want to buy would be much lower. So if there are fresh large selling orders in the respective stocks after the market opens, the market makers would bid a lot lower so that they are not run over by a freight train.
For today, traders will see if buyers will buy the gap down open like they did on March 31st and April 2nd.
Or will the market form a brief pullback, and then continue to selloff into the close? If this is the case, the market may not be in a good place moving forward.
$SPX - Top of the MountainSPX is once again, since its uptrend began on 11/06/2023, breaking below the 3-month simple moving average and now also the Monthly Heiken Ashi average (black stepped line).
This time, it seems to have the conditions to start its descent from the mountain and confirm that we reached the top on 02/18/2025.
Looking at the vast majority of stocks in today’s pre-market, this appears to be the scenario.
And this impacts my recent positions. In this scenario, it will seek the 1-year simple moving average, where it should make a pullback (HH or LH?).
Time for caution and to avoid new long entries.
S&P INTRADAY bearish below 5636President Donald Trump imposed the highest U.S. tariffs in a century, aiming to reshape the global economy. This move triggered threats of retaliation and a sharp market selloff worldwide. Stock markets reacted quickly and negatively. U.S. equity futures dropped as investors worried about corporate earnings. European and Asian stocks also declined. The dollar fell to a five-month low, while investors sought safety in Treasury bonds, and the yen strengthened.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 5636
Resistance Level 2: 5713
Resistance Level 3: 5790
Support Level 1: 5413
Support Level 2: 5262
Support Level 3: 5200
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
