SPX500SPX500 still there bullish trend, I see SPX500 have experiencing weakeningin the past few weeks. I view SPX will going to new support with target price 4520
US500FU trade ideas
The Bullish AlternativeA channel for SPX is near 4800. if it holds this week, there is a very good possibility that a run to all time highs later in the year can happen. I explain in the video.
Maybe This is all a Big Head and Shoulders.This is feeling suspiciously like honey trapping of the bears and I think there's fair odds we're going to see a strong squeeze starting now and lasting over at least the next couple weeks.
This could easily take us to 5800 or so inside of the head and shoulders setup
This is a test on SPX500Short thesis for SPX500
🚨 Market Alert: SPX500 Approaching Critical Zone
(April 6, 2025)
Volatility (VIX) just surged to 45—markets are feeling significant fear. This creates high-quality swing-trading opportunities.
🎯 Why this area is important:
Key Support Flip: Previous strong weekly resistance could now act as critical support.
High-Timeframe Imbalance: SPX500 is retesting the exact demand zone that launched the powerful rally from October 2022 → February 2024.
50% Fibonacci Level: Perfect retracement to the midpoint of the entire 2022–2024 bullish leg.
⚠️ What I'm watching for (No-Chase Method):
✅ Lower-timeframe liquidity sweeps + Break of Structure (BOS) as confirmation.
✅ Volume spikes indicating smart-money engagement.
✅ Signs of VIX easing (below ~35), reinforcing bullish reversal thesis.
SPX500 eyes on 5668: Key Resistance before Trump Tariff newsSPX500 might be in "sell the rumor, buy the news" mode.
But the bounce has just hit a major fib (of its Covid wave).
If the news is bearish, this would be a perfect top to drop.
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SPX - 12 year sideways Bear Market?This is just an idea. Noticed a bit of a pattern. Tell me it isn't true. The recessionary periods in 73' and 08' times were very similar to what is happening today. Inflation being key.
SPX updateSP500 E-min futures opened 200 pnts lower as I predicted. I have to make frequent updates because of the fast changing environment. This is just reading the market and you all can do it with practice.
Volatility on futures options has crossed 100! My God! I have never seen such readings. With SPX being at key level at 2022 peak and also at HVN, some positive news from Trump adviser that 50 countries want to negotiate with Trump, I see the market rally to 5000 very likely Monday open or close.
But I still believe 4150 as final resting place. I dont see any crashes below 4800 except 150 points near the target, as far as I can read.
But outside the readings, I do suspect a banking crisis like 2008 is looming. That would change everything because Trump is against bailouts. We will see when that happens
SPX Important update: Crash of 200pnts on MondayThree days back I had warned of a crash which did materialise beyond my expectation.
Today again based on the same VP analysis and additionally major trendline break principal I am predicting a 200pnts crash on Monday as we have enter a major low volume region. I hope I am wrong for the sake of all those who are still invested
The market achieved the first target of green trendline break and is now touching the red trendline. Since the price is close to the LVN's another crash is extremely high probability. Had it been near a HVN, I would expect a bounce. The next target coincides with the 2023 Oct bottom. But 4800 (peak of 2022) could offer some support and then 4120
Major trendline break principle is: when a major trendline is broken the price will mirror the rise and fall an equal distance from the breakpoint as from the high to the breakpoint. Check my related post where I show many such cases
S&P 500 Records Largest Weekly Decline Since 2020The S&P 500 Index has suffered its steepest two-day drop since the pandemic crash in March 2020. On April 4th, 2025, the benchmark index closed at 5,074.08, down 322.44 points (5.97%). This marks a loss of $5.4 trillion in market value across just two sessions.
The sell-off followed comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. He warned that President Donald Trump’s new tariffs could lead to persistently higher inflation. All 11 sectors in the S&P 500 closed in the red. Only 14 stocks remained positive as Nvidia and Apple fell more than 7%, while Tesla dropped 10%.
The Nasdaq 100 Index plunged 6.1%, confirming a bear market after losing over 20% from its February peak. The rapid decline mirrors the speed seen during the 2020 COVID crash and the 2000 dot-com bust.
President Trump announced sweeping tariffs on U.S. imports on Wednesday. These include a 10% general tariff and higher rates on dozens of countries. China responded by imposing a 34% levy on American goods. The tit-for-tat measures triggered fears of a full-scale global trade war.
Global markets reacted sharply. Investors pulled out of stocks and moved into safer assets like government bonds. The two-day loss of $5 trillion on the S&P 500 set a new record, surpassing the $3.3 trillion loss during March 2020.
Rick Meckler, of Cherry Lane Investments, said the escalation is now deeper than many investors expected. The initial belief that tariffs were a negotiation tactic has now given way to serious market concerns.
Technical Analysis: Price Approaching Key Support Zones. Will They Hold?
The S&P 500 has shown a bearish trend since early 2025. Several weekly candles have closed bearish, confirming a strong downtrend. Currently, the index is trading lower toward a key ascending trendline near $4,930.
The $4,930 support level may offer short-term support. A bounce from here could see a brief recovery. However, the sentiment remains bearish without strong economic data or policy changes.
Further Downside Risk If Support Fails
Another horizontal support sits at $4,780. If both support levels fail, the index may fall toward the $4,500 psychological zone. This level is crucial as it marks a long-term support and potential reversal point.
At present, bearish momentum dominates, with much strength coming from trade war fears. Unless data shifts investor sentiment, the downtrend may persist.
SPX500: The trendline show a bottom in Sept 2025 at 4700 We're being magnetically pulled toward the trendline bottom around 4700.
Based on the current MACD and RSI signals, the bearish scenario could continue until September–October 2025. This correction is very similar to the one from 2022.
There will be some dead cats bounces, but do not be fooled, the MACD is reseting hard.
Stay sharp. Be ready.
DYOR.
SNP500 / SPX🔍 SPX/USDT Analysis: Daily Timeframe 📉
SELL IT!
The SPX chart on a daily timeframe highlights significant upcoming dates where price movements may present trading opportunities. These should be analyzed in conjunction with higher timeframes for a comprehensive market view.
• September 3, 2024 - Red Line: This date marks a potential local peak. Traders might consider this as a moment to take profits or reduce exposure, as the price could encounter resistance or a downturn.
• December 6, 2024 - Red Line: This date is another potential local peak, signaling a possible moment to exit positions before a downturn.
When working with this daily timeframe, remember to evaluate these movements within the context of the broader market trend, considering higher timeframes for a more global perspective.
Note: The exact timing of these phases can vary by +/- a few days. All times are based on UTC-7 (Los Angeles).
SP500 Rebalance. Expecting bounce at 4800.US economic policy has created uncertainty in the market.
I don´t expect a market crash however, I do expect a rebalance of price action at 4800.
SPX Update. High was called months ago. Now what!4940 is the .38% Retracement. If the current down move is a wave 4 we should find support bounce around this level. It can still move lower but the count loses confidence if we break the top of wave 1 (4809).
S&P 500 Outlook: Black Monday Risk Points to 4,600US500 Weekly Forecast – April Week 2
After Trump’s tariff news and the VIX spiking to 29, the S&P 500 (US500) showed signs of cracking. Last week’s candle broke the prior low at 5,092 and closed at 5,061, forming a clear bearish engulfing candle with strong downside momentum.
This confirms a structural breakdown, and the first major monthly demand zone sits at 4,600 — a likely target if fear accelerates.
Primary Scenario:
• Price could open with a short-term bullish correction toward 5,400 (equilibrium zone of the last leg).
• From there, we expect a sharp bearish continuation to 4,600
• Alternative: If Monday opens with panic (Black Monday scenario), price may dump straight into 4,600, creating a huge imbalance between 4,600–5,400.
• That imbalance could act as a magnet for a later retrace — and then another sell-off from higher again.
Bias: Bearish — watching for retest after potential panic move
Key Levels:
• Support: 4,600 (major monthly demand)
• Resistance / Rebalance Zone: 5,400 (equilibrium)
• Breakout Confirmation: Weekly close under 5,092 already done
This setup reflects both technical structure and the real fear in the market. If Black Monday unfolds, we may get a deep move followed by one of the cleanest bearish retests of the year.
—
Weekly forecast by Sphinx Trading
Let me know your bias in the comments.
#SPX #US500 #S&P500 #BlackMonday #MarketCrash #MacroView #SphinxWeekly #VIX #TrumpTariffs #Equities #LiquidityVoid
1987 vs 2025: Are We on the Edge of Another Black Monday? 🕳️📉 The chart comparison is chilling.
On the left, the infamous 1987 crash—a sudden gap over the weekend followed by a brutal free fall.
On the right? 2025. A similar gap, a similar setup... and the fear is creeping in. 🫣
🔍 Here’s what we’re seeing:
The current price action on the S&P 500 Futures eerily mirrors that of 1987.
A sharp drop after a failed breakout, followed by a massive gap down.
The psychological setup is nearly identical: markets under pressure, global tension, and growing uncertainty.
⚠️ While history never repeats exactly, it often rhymes. Is this just a healthy correction—or the beginning of something bigger?
📊 Keep an eye on volume, volatility, and macro catalysts—if we see continued panic selling, this pattern might live up to its reputation.
🧠 What do you think—coincidence, or a warning we shouldn’t ignore?
#BlackMonday #1987Crash #S&P500 #MarketCrash #SP500 #HistoryRepeats #TechnicalAnalysis
3-MONTH THE SQUID GAME II 'JUBILEE'. WHAT IS NOW & WHAT IS NEXTIt's gone three months or so... (Duh..? WTF.. 3 months, really? 😸😸😸) since "The Squid Game" Season II has been released on December 26, 2024.
Nearly month later comrade Trump entered The White House (again).
Still, everyone was on a rush, chatting endless "Blah-Blah-Blah", "I-crypto-czar", "crypto-capital-of-the-world", "we-robot", "mambo-jumbo", "super-duper", AI, VR and so on hyped bullsh#t.
Here's a short educational breakdown, what we think about all of that, at our beloved @PandorraResearch Team.
Trading can easily resemble gambling when approached without discipline, strategy, or proper risk management. Here are key reasons to avoid gambling-like trading behaviors, supported by real-world examples:
1. Lack of Strategy and Emotional Decision-Making
Trading becomes gambling when decisions are based on emotions, intuition, or market hype rather than thorough analysis. For instance, Geraldine lost £15,000 on a spread-betting platform after attending a workshop that taught ineffective strategies. She believed the platform profited from her losses, highlighting how impulsive, uneducated decisions can lead to significant financial harm. Similarly, traders who overtrade or ignore risk management often experience devastating losses, as they rely on luck rather than a structured plan.
2. Overleveraging and One-Sided Bets
Overleveraging—opening excessively large positions—is a common gambling behavior in trading. This approach increases stress and the likelihood of substantial losses. A trader who lost $400,000 on a single Robinhood bet exemplifies this. He overinvested in a call option, hoping for a quick profit, but the trade turned against him, wiping out nearly all his capital. Opening one-sided bets or adding to losing positions further compounds risks, as traders attempt to recover losses through increasingly risky moves.
3. Ignoring Stop Losses and Risk Management
Failing to set stop losses or refusing to exit losing trades is another form of gambling. Traders who cling to their biases and avoid cutting losses often face irreversible damage to their portfolios. For example, many traders refuse to take stop losses, leading to catastrophic losses that erode their confidence and capital. This behavior mirrors the destructive cycle of gambling addiction, where individuals chase losses in hopes of a turnaround.
4. Psychological and Financial Consequences
Gambling-like trading can lead to severe psychological and financial consequences. Harry, a trader with a gambling addiction, repeatedly lost money despite asking his trading platform to restrict his account. His inability to control his trading behavior highlights the addictive nature of high-risk trading and its potential to ruin lives. Similarly, excessive gambling has been linked to increased debt, bankruptcy, and mental health issues, such as anxiety and depression.
5. Long-Term Sustainability
Smart trading focuses on steady gains and minimal losses, whereas gambling relies on luck and high-risk bets. Traders who chase big wins often lose their profits in subsequent trades, perpetuating a cycle of losses. Studies show that frequent trading, driven by overconfidence or problem gambling, reduces investment returns and increases financial instability.
In conclusion, avoiding gambling-like trading requires discipline, education, and a well-defined strategy. Real-world examples demonstrate the dangers of emotional decision-making, overleveraging, and ignoring risk management. By adopting a structured approach and prioritizing long-term sustainability, traders can mitigate risks and avoid the pitfalls of gambling.
--
Best 'squid' wishes,
@PandorraResearch Team
S&P 500 at Decision Zone: Relief Rally or Continuation Lower?📄 The hourly chart is currently at a critical inflection point after a steep drop from recent highs. We’re seeing signs of a potential corrective rally forming, but the battle between bulls and bears is far from over.
🧭 Key Zones to Watch:
Fib Resistance (0.55–0.62): 5,400–5,536
Bullish Breakout Target: 5,707
Bearish Breakdown Target: 4,925
Neutral Pivot: 5,061 (current consolidation zone)
📊 If price reclaims and holds above 5,536, a continuation toward 5,707 becomes likely.
🚨 However, a rejection in the Fib zone followed by a drop below 5,061 may confirm renewed bearish momentum targeting the 4,925 region.
This setup provides clear structure for both bulls and bears. Keep an eye on volume, price action confirmation, and respect risk management.
💡 Comment your thoughts below! Are you leaning bullish or bearish here?
SPX Drop Likely to Reach Between 4832 and 4933SPX Drop Likely to Reach Between 4832 and 4933
There are two likely targets for the current plunge that are good candidate for where strong demand will emerge.
The first is the blue up-trend line drawn from the COVID lows. This line has 4 price touch points already which makes it a solid magnet for another touch point for this current pullback. That target today is 4933.
The second price magnet is the purple horizontal line drawn from the January 2023 high. That previous key resistance level, 4832, was eventually overcome in early 2024 which should make it likely support for the 5 week pullback underway.
The key takeaway from my point of view is that this recent sharp downdraft may just be typical back-filling action in a CONTINUED uptrend. If correct, SPX will find its footing somewhere in the yellow highlighted area intersected by the two lines and then resume its march upward to test the January 2025 highs.
So while its true that last week's plunge was breathtaking and may have convinced many that the long-term bull market is over, if you consider the 4 dramatic weekly drops that took place during the initial market reaction to COVID, you can see that similar drops can just be temporary pullbacks in what will eventually be a successful test of the primary bullish trend.
SPX keeping it simple looking at the weekly chart on SPX. Using fib and basic wave theory.
There is plenty of panic in the markets right now besides one guy.
WARREN Buffet he's looking for opportunity.
The simple way to break it down is a 50% retracement from Oct 22 low to the ATH is the top of the post covid high. looking at in an Elliot wave theory 5 wave
1 is our post covid high on Jan 3 2022. Then we head to the second wave. this wave ended in October 22 the 3rd wave has ended on Feb 18th 2025. we are currently in the 4th wave. this is a correction phase. Wave 4 is 14.6%, 23.6%, or 38.2% of wave 3 but no more than 50%. it is typically 38.2% of wave 3.
Wave five will come or we free fall.
Enter a bear market and ride it out. Buffet said this people do it wrong they buy high and sell low. yes, the turmoil is high but there is always those who will be scared and run
or you find the right place to buy and take the chance.
Trump is a business man and he's doing business. he's playing chess when everyone else is playing checkers. once the 9 trillion debt that is due for refinance is taken care of do you really think he will let the market crash and him and his goons loose money? He stated he is doing this on purpose. Bring interest rates down and stocks down. Equals good buying opportunities
Hold tight it will be a wild ride.
SPX: has the worst passed?This was the worst week for world stocks since the March 2020 pandemic lockdown collapse. This time it was caused by the simple move of the US Administration, which decided to implement trade tariffs to imports to the US, on all countries around the globe. Markets stayed in shock, just for the moment, and then, the inevitable happened - markets had only one move, and it was toward the downside. The question after Friday's sell-off is has the worst passed or is it yet to come?
At the start of the week markets tried to be optimistic, as there was not so bad data posted for the US economy. However, news regarding tariffs spoiled the game, and the S&P 500 lost almost 6% in value during Friday's trading session. Charts look pretty painful at this moment. The index ended the week at the level of 5.074, where it last stood in April 2024. All sectors lost on Friday. Tesla was down by more than 10% within a day, Apple and Nvidia were down by around 7,3%, Amazon dropped by 4,15%, even Alibaba had a strong wipe in value of almost 10%.
Considering the scale of implemented tariffs, markets will use another week to estimate the full effect of implemented tariffs, and counter-tariffs of other countries, including China. In this sense, some further moves toward the downside might be possible. This is a period of time when uncertainty is at its highest level, so any new news could push the markets higher toward one or the other side. Certainty, this is not the time when market optimism could be expected.
Is This a Bear Market or a Golden Opportunity?The indices have plummeted sharply, and whether you believe this is due to Trump’s tariffs or would have happened anyway, regardless of the trigger, the reality remains the same.
Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are officially in bear market territory— defined by a decline of more than 20% from their peaks . Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down approximately 15%.
Given these facts, the big question is: Are we in a bear market, or is this a fantastic buying opportunity? 📉📈
Now, let's break down the key levels, potential scenarios, and how to approach the current market environment. 🚀
Dow Jones 30 (DJI): Navigating Key Support and Resistance Levels
On the weekly chart, DJI has been in an uptrend since the pandemic lows of 2020. The double top formation from 45k measured target has already been exceeded, and the index is now approaching a critical confluence support zone between 37k and 37,700.
📌 My Outlook:
• I believe this support will hold in the near future, presenting a buying opportunity.
• Resistances: 40k and 41,600 are important technical levels and potential targets for bulls.
💡 Alternative Scenario:
• If DJI starts rising without testing the long-term confluence support, I will focus on selling opportunities, particularly around the 41,500 zone, as we have 2 unfilled gaps from last week.
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S&P 500 (SPX): Bear Market Territory, But Still Holding Uptrend (posted main chart)
According to classical theory, SPX is now officially in bear market territory. However, we are still above the ascending trend line established from the 2020 pandemic low, and approaching a confluence support zone around 4,820 - 4,900.
📌 My Outlook:
• I will be looking for buying opportunities if the index continues its decline towards the 4,820 - 4,900 zone next week.
• Target: Filling the first gap at 5,400.
💡 Alternative Scenario:
• If the week begins positively, and SPX doesn’t reach the 4,900 support zone, I will focus on shorting opportunities on gap filling, aiming for a return to 5,000.
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Nasdaq 100 (Nas100): Hovering Above Key Support
Unlike DJI and SPX, Nas100 is still well above the ascending trend line from the 2020 pandemic low. However, it is nearing an important horizontal support defined by the 2021 ATH and the 2024 lows.
📌 My Outlook:
• Drops towards 17k or slightly lower could present good buying opportunities, anticipating a potential rise to fill the gaps.
💡 Alternative Scenario:
• If the price rises above 18.500k zone without dipping under 17k I will look for selling opportunities.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
Possible opportunity to buy the S&P500 under the 20DMAHarmonic levels, previous resistance, 50DMA, and 20DMA all point towards the green range. Come June, I think Jerome will continue to cut rates.
I will begin accumulating under the 20DMA.
