What Stopped The Waterfall?Hey Guys.
Some old school action reaction analysis on the sell off related to Trump's tariff that occurred yesterday.
Thanks for watching & Good Luck.
US500FU trade ideas
more fall
Pattern Identified:
On the chart provided (originally a 5-minute chart), a descending triangle is observed between points (A), (B), (C), (D), and (E). If we group the movements on a 15-minute timeframe, the pattern would still be relevant, but with less noise and more consolidated candles.
Point A: Initial high around 5567.3, marking the start of the downtrend.
Point B: Initial support of the triangle, near 5520.1.
Point C: Descending resistance of the triangle, showing a price compression.
Point D: Lower support of the triangle, also near 5520.1.
Point E: A bearish breakout below D is confirmed, with the price falling toward 5500. Analysis:
On a 15-minute timeframe, the descending triangle would indicate consolidation after an initial downtrend. A breakout below D (5520) confirms the bearish continuation. Volume (not visible on the chart, but a factor to consider) likely increased during the breakout, validating the move. The price appears to be heading toward more significant support around 5500, which has already been tested.
Projection:
Bearish Target: If the price continues to decline, the next key level could be between 5480 and 5470, depending on historical support or the projected height of the triangle.
Bullish Reversal: If the price rebounds from 5500 and breaks above the triangle resistance (around 5540), we could see a further move toward 5567.
Strategy:
Short: Entry after the breakout at D (5520), with a stop loss adjusted above the triangle resistance (5540) and an initial profit-taking at 5480.
Buy (Alternate Scenario): If the price rebounds from 5500 and breaks higher, enter above 5540, with a stop loss below 5520 and a profit-taking at 5567.
Risk Management: Take a 1-2% risk per trade and monitor macroeconomic events that may affect the S&P 500.
Note: This analysis is for informational purposes only and is based on a simulated 15-minute timeframe. Be sure to confirm this with a real 15-minute chart and apply appropriate risk management.
$SPX - Trading Levels for March 14 2025
Are you guys ready?
The 35EMA - is a BEAST
Blue dashed line is that support discussed in last nights video.
Is today the day we break above it for a swing? Grab this chart and let's GO!!! It’s Friday and no matter what happens I’ll be playing one of these sides at these strikes.
If SPX Rallies Here… I’m Hitting the Sell Button HardIf SPX Rallies Here… I’m Hitting the Sell Button Hard | SPX Analysis 14 Mar 2025
The lazy bear keeps rolling downhill, but if history has anything to say about it, it might just wake up for a quick stretch before heading lower again.
📌 Last time, SPX pushed down, bounced, then continued lower.
📌 Gamma Exposure suggests 5500/5520 are price magnets, with 5550 acting as resistance.
📌 A short-term pop before another drop wouldn’t be surprising.
With bear swings already unloading, profits are stacking up, but there’s still plenty of juice left in the move.
I’ll be watching for one more push higher before looking for the next bearish entry—unless the market decides to hand me a clean setup first.
Otherwise? I’m calling it early for some live music, a zoo visit, and a St. Paddy’s pint. 🎷🍻
Let’s break it down…
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Deeper Dive Analysis:
The market continues to stair-step lower, but like any good trend, nothing moves in a straight line forever.
📌 The Setup – Is a Bounce Before the Next Drop Coming?
If you look at past price action, the last time SPX broke down, it:
Pushed lower.
Briefly popped back up.
Then continued the descent.
Now, we’re seeing a similar structure forming.
📌 GEX Levels Are Painting a Clear Picture
Using my new toy, Gamma Exposure, I’m watching:
5500/5520 acting as magnets—price is likely drawn to them.
5550 as a possible resistance level before rolling back down.
If price rallies into these levels, I’ll be hunting bearish entries.
📌 Trade Execution Plan – Stick With What Works
Delaying bullish trade ideas until we clear 5700.
Looking for reversal setups and pulse bars around 5550.
Targeting 5500/5520 for a possible low-of-day move.
📌 Profits Locked In—Time for a Break?
Bear swings are paying out, and I’m sitting in a good position with my exposure.
Some tranches have already hit profit targets.
If more reach exit targets, I’ll reposition if the setup aligns.
Otherwise, it’s time to enjoy a well-earned long weekend.
The market can move without me for a couple of days—but if the setup is there, I’ll be ready to strike.
🎷 Saxophones, zoo visits, and a St. Patrick’s pint are calling. 🍀
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Fun Fact
📢 Did you know? The first recorded stock market crash happened in 1637—and it wasn’t stocks that crashed, it was… tulips.
💡 The Lesson? Markets have been overreacting to hype for centuries. Whether it’s tulips, tech stocks, or meme trades, human nature never changes—only the assets do.
50% Fibonacci retracement => 4800If this fall were similar to 2022, 50% Fibonacci retracement, it will stop at 4820.
SPX
Spx
It appears to me from the chart that the rise has not ended yet and there is an upcoming rise
SPX Short term projectionPrice projection based on volume profile. This my personal opinion and for education purpose only, to show how VP can be used. Uses 15m chart and VP from the recent top
SPX / SPYThe Standard & Poor's Index is likely near the bottom of its downtrend. Considering the interest rate decision next week, it is preparing to buy. The other areas are potential reversal zones, but the closest is the green zone.
Did someone say, BEAR MARKET?!Oh yeah! I think it's time to start talking about the possibility and likelihood of the reality we are seeing. I enjoy doing more educational and analytical posts, and my goal this year was to do more of them again—so here we go, round two of 2025!
Let’s Talk About the Market
It's selling, in case you hadn’t noticed. Some may say “correction,” but I say tomato, tom-ah-to. The reality is that a bear market is, at its core, a correction. Historically, bear markets haven’t just started for no reason. It’s not like the S&P 500 wakes up one day and has this conversation with the NASDAQ:
S&P: Yo, Nazzy.
NAZ: What?
S&P: Let’s do something new.
NAZ: What?
S&P: Let’s tank and shake the whole world. You up for it?
NAZ: I don’t... I don’t know, I don’t think...
S&P: Nah, nah, trust me. It’ll be funny. Let’s ruin some 401(k)s and give the economy a real shock. It’ll be hilarious! You in?
NAZ: I... I don’t... fine, I guess. 🙄
Yeah, no. The reality is that bear markets result from multiple factors, such as:
Bubbles
Over-exuberance
Changing economic conditions
Changing geopolitical factors
Many other interconnected influences
Every bear market in the long history of the S&P has been the result of several of these factors combined. No bear market ever materialized out of thin air. While some crashes have occurred for questionable reasons—such as Black Monday in the 1980s—true bear markets typically result from a prolonged accumulation of unsustainable growth.
This could be due to:
Outpricing the average investor (which the S&P currently does).
Being fueled by speculative innovation (we have AI hype today, just as the ‘90s had dot-com hype).
Becoming disproportionately large compared to the actual monetary supply in which it operates (as of 2025, the S&P 500 is valued higher than the U.S. money supply—more on that later).
So, as you can see, we have some basis for a bear market thesis here.
Blame Trump?
I see a lot of people blaming Trump, so let me preface this—I don’t support him, but I’m not about to make this a politically fueled post because that would distract from the real issue at hand. The reality is that he’s not the root cause of the market’s decline.
These structural factors existed pre-Trump and will exist post-Trump once this correction is complete. However, while he may not be the root cause, he is certainly throwing fuel on the fire.
His obsession with tariffs, economic instability, and personal financial gains (cough crypto cough) has arguably added to the growing lack of confidence in the market. Investors and hedge funds aren’t dumb—when Warren Buffett and other major firms pulled out before the decline started, that should have been the first warning sign.
The market was already reaching astronomically high valuations. However, recovery may take longer when the leader of the economy is actively contributing to instability rather than fostering confidence.
The Crypto Situation—A Warning Sign
What Trump did with crypto raises serious concerns. If crypto can be manipulated for personal gain, who’s to say the NYSE itself won’t be next?
Elon Musk and others have already gotten away with market manipulation, setting a dangerous precedent of complacency from the SEC. In my opinion, investor confidence should have eroded long ago.
To put numbers behind this sentiment, the American Association of Individual Investors conducts a weekly survey on investor sentiment. As of March 13, 2025, results show:
Only 19% of investors are bullish
60% are bearish
This marks the 4th consecutive week of majority bearish sentiment
Complex Market Dynamics
There’s a lot happening right now that complicates the situation. Months ago, I posted a video about the US Money Supply vs. the S&P 500, available here:
In this video, I discuss how overextended the market is relative to the US money supply. The only way to sustain current valuations would be to drastically increase the money supply.
But here’s the problem:
📌 Increasing the money supply = higher inflation
With the US already narrowly avoiding recessions since 2022, increasing the money supply further would exacerbate inflation, leading to even greater economic instability.
Check out this chart I plotted, showing US Money Supply (green) vs. Inflation (red):
As you can see, whenever the money supply increases, inflation follows.
Tariffs & The Economy
Many people assume that tariffs increase the money supply—but that’s not how it works. The USA is not self-sufficient (no country is), and it still relies on imports.
Who actually pays the tariff? Not the foreign country—the domestic consumers do.
For example, when an American buys a product made in China, they pay the tariff cost, which is then sent back to China. It’s a net-zero game that hurts both economies without providing any real financial advantage.
Let’s Get Mathy 🤓
Now, let’s bring in the math.
In my last money supply video, I used visual scaling and qualitative comparison. But for a rigorous analysis, we need to:
Assess cointegration
Ensure stationarity
Develop a cointegrated pair regression
If the US Money Supply and the S&P 500 are cointegrated and stationary, we can use the money supply to predict the S&P’s valuation.
And guess what? They are.
Using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test (for stationarity) and the Johansen Cointegration Test, we get positive results:
This confirms a strong relationship between US Money Supply & the S&P 500 across multiple cointegrated vectors.
The Cointegration Equation
Running a cointegration regression in R, we get this equation:
📌 y = 2.046e-10x - 1.492e+02
Where X = current money supply and Y = expected S&P 500 valuation.
Plugging in today’s money supply gives us an expected S&P value of 4,262.571.
Accounting for error range (σ = 294.8):
Upper Bound: 4,557.371
Lower Bound: 3,967.771
I’ve incorporated this equation into PineScript to show you here:
Will the S&P Correct to the Money Supply?
Not necessarily. Money supply is dynamic, and as it increases, so will the expected S&P valuation.
This relationship will persist until equilibrium is restored. We can see this in historical data:
The Verdict
This is a much-needed correction—or bear market, call it what you want.
The S&P’s growth rate was unsustainable, especially in relation to:
The US Money Supply
Speculative AI-driven hype
Economic & geopolitical instability
Whether the S&P falls all the way to equilibrium or they meet somewhere in the middle remains to be seen. But one way or another—equilibrium will be restored.
This post is already long enough, so I’ll leave it at that!
Thanks for reading, and as always—safe trades! 🚀
Possible opportunity to buy the S&P500 under the 20DMAHarmonic levels, previous resistance, 50DMA, and 20DMA all point towards the green range. Come June, I think Jerome will continue to cut rates.
I will begin accumulating under the 20DMA.
SPX Volume profile support and gap through. Must know toolI have taken a volume profile across the rally to project Low value nodes and high value nodes to find support levels during the decline. I simply cannot emphasis enough how valuable this tool is if learn to use correctly. I use this conjunction with geometry (hidden here)
Most us know prices will come to fill the price gaps in the future, but LVN and HVN can provide information that price and volume cannot provide on their own. Eg a large bar could have a heavy volume, but you wouldn't know at what price the volume was, whether it was at the opening or closing, unless you look at the VP. Inspite of a huge volume there could be a price gap hidden in the bar
The S&P 500 index is likely to change its upward trajectory.The S&P 500 index approached the "cup and handle" target at 6152 points, but recently it has formed a "head and shoulders" reversal pattern at the neckline. The index has retraced to 5783, filling a previous gap. If it trades below this gap, it may head towards 5583 points to achieve the head and shoulders pattern target.
$SPY Next 5 Years A rounding top on the tape. Soon it’s time to wreck late bears and get everyone excited for America’s greatness. Then the grim reaper will rear his head as the reduction of fiscal spending makes a reality check 🧐
SPX correction targetsAMEX:SPY #SPX #SPX500 SP:SPX
We are: 5521
Target 1: 5450
Target 2: 4800
Below 2000, it could be...but don't take it seriously.
Post market notes $SPY #SP500Random ideas after the close. I still think we go lower, but of course the ending was scary for bulls. We lost a key level today so I'm comfortable keeping shorts overnight.
SPX - Continuing the downward trendGiven the flow of bearish orders on the daily and lower timeframes, the SPX is still in a bearish trend. Of course, if the weekly candle closes below 5771.3, the structure on this timeframe will also become bearish.
So in this situation, opening short positions is better than long positions. Note that any upward movement can only be a small daily correction.
We will probably see another BoS on the 15-minute timeframe today and the price could reach another support level.
Everything is clear on the chart
Watch, enjoy, be profitable
SPX: Dead cat bounce or new highsAt the moment I am tracking a massive ending diagonal pattern for SPX that started Back in March 2020 after covid crash. The recent correction looks very oversold, and a bounce is due if not already started. I am looking at weekly RSI reading to get some resistance at 50 level if this is a dead cat bounce. Looking left, every time RSI fell around 40 level, it got resistance at 50 level and fell back down again, and price created a lower low. The price needs to get above 6000 to get confidence back to make another high. The resistance should come in at around 5900-5950 area. If it rejects, then probability of primary wave 4 will increase greatly and price could fall around 4800 in the second half of the year.
If price can break through resistance and move up higher, then wave 3 will continue one more leg and the count will get updated to WXY with the last leg to complete the wave before the bigger correction. At the moment, staying cautiously long in spy to at least catch the b wave.
S&P500 Index Goes 'DRILL BABY DRILL' Mode due to Tariffs BazookaThe Trump administration's aggressive use of tariffs — we termed at @PandorraResearch Team a "Tariff' Bazooka" approach due to their broad, unilateral application — has exerted significant downward pressure on the S&P 500 index through multiple channels. These include direct impacts on corporate profitability, heightened trade war risks, increased economic uncertainty, and deteriorating market sentiment.
Direct Impact on Corporate Earnings
Tariffs raise costs for U.S. firms reliant on imported inputs, forcing them to either absorb reduced profit margins or pass costs to consumers. For example, intermediate goods like steel and aluminum—key inputs for manufacturing—face steep tariffs, squeezing industries from automakers to construction. Goldman Sachs estimates every 5-percentage-point increase in U.S. tariffs reduces S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) by 1–2%. The 2025 tariffs targeting Canada, Mexico, and China could lower EPS forecasts by 2–3%, directly eroding equity valuations6. Additionally, retaliatory tariffs from trading partners (e.g., EU levies on bourbon and motorcycles) compound losses by shrinking export markets.
Trade Escalation and Retaliation
The EU’s threat to deploy its Anti-Coercion Instrument—a retaliatory tool designed to counter trade discrimination—could trigger a cycle of tit-for-tat measures. For instance, Canada and Mexico supply over 60% of U.S. steel and aluminum imports, and tariffs on these goods disrupt North American supply chains. Retaliation risks are particularly acute for S&P 500 companies with global exposure: 28% of S&P 500 revenues come from international markets, and prolonged trade wars could depress foreign sales.
Economic Uncertainty and Market Volatility
The U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (FED website link added for learning purposes) surged to 740 points early in March 2025, nearing levels last seen during the 2020 pandemic. Historically, such spikes correlate with a 3% contraction in the S&P 500’s forward price-to-earnings ratio as investors demand higher risk premiums. Trump’s inconsistent tariff implementation—delaying Mexican tariffs after negotiations but accelerating others—has exacerbated instability. Markets reacted sharply: the S&P 500 fell 3.1% in one week following tariff announcements, erasing all post-election gains.
Recession Fears and Sector-Specific Pressures
Tariffs have amplified concerns about a U.S. recession. By raising consumer prices and disrupting supply chains, they risk slowing economic growth—a fear reflected in the S&P 500’s 5% decline in fair value estimates under current tariff policies. Industries like technology (dependent on Chinese components) and agriculture (targeted by retaliatory tariffs) face acute pressure. For example, China’s tariffs on soybeans and pork disproportionately hurt rural economies, indirectly dragging down broader market sentiment.
Long-Term Structural Risks
Studies show tariffs fail to achieve their stated goals. MIT research found Trump’s 2018 steel tariffs did not revive U.S. steel employment but caused job losses in downstream sectors8. Similarly, the 2025 tariffs risk accelerating economic decoupling, as firms diversify supply chains away from the U.S. to avoid tariff risks. This structural shift could permanently reduce the competitiveness of S&P 500 multinationals.
Conclusion
In summary, Trump’s tariff strategy has destabilized equity markets by undermining corporate profits, provoking retaliation, and fueling macroeconomic uncertainty.
Overall we still at @PandorraResearch Team are Bearishly calling on further S&P 500 Index opportunities with further possible cascading consequences.
The S&P 500’s recent slump reflects investor recognition that tariffs act as a tax on growth—one with cascading consequences for both domestic industries and global trade dynamics.
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Best 'Drill Baby, Drill' wishes,
@PandorraResearch Team 😎
SPX500 - Support Becomes ResistanceHello Traders !
The SPX500 Index failed to create a new higher high !
Currently, The support level (5713 - 5671) is broken !
So, I expect a bearish move📉
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TARGET: 5420🎯
S&P500: Bottom of 2 year Channel. Target 6900.S&P500 is oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 27.644, MACD = -113.480, ADX = 60.232) as the price didn't only cross under the 1D MA200 but is also almost at the bottom of the 2 year Channel Up. In the meantime, the price reached the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level while the 1D MACD touched its LH trendline. The last time all those conditions were met at the same time was on the October 30th 2023 Low. What followed was a massive rally to the -0.618 Fib extension before the next 1D MA50 pullback. This is a unique opportunity to buy and aim for the -0.618 Fib (TP = 6,900).
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SPX MONTHLY TIMEFRAME... GLTAmy forecast on the spx for the next year, after higher highs come higher lows, and based on where valuations are right now the market needs to take a breath. officially bearish
