S&P 500 Update - 5200 on the horizonFrom an Elliott perspective the market appears to be in a 4th Wave correction. The a and b waves have completed and now the c wave is playing out.
If we look to a 1.618 extension of the a wave , the target projection is 5200.
The bias is to the downside and the bearish sentiment continues to 5200 and possibly an overshoot to lower levels.
US500FU trade ideas
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 28, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During this week's trading session, the Index gapped higher, passing our completed Inner Index Rally of 5712 and setting a Mean Resistance of 5768. This target was accompanied by considerable reversal, ultimately causing a downward movement. On the final trading day of the week, the Index underwent a pronounced decline, resulting in a substantial drop that surpassed the critical target of Mean Support set at 5603. The Index is positioned to retest the completed Outer Index Dip level of 5520. An extended decline is feasible, with the possibility of targeting the subsequent Outer Index Dip at 5403 before resuming an upward rally from either of these Outer Index Dip levels.
Monthly Chart SPX Cautious Liquidity PositioningThis month, the S&P 500 (SPX) has shown signs of a cautious liquidity shift as investors take a more measured approach to risk. While the index remains near all-time highs, underlying market activity suggests hesitation rather than aggressive buying. I currently have no active positions.
Investors are rotating out of high-growth stocks and into more defensive sectors like utilities, healthcare, and consumer staples. This shift signals concerns about potential volatility, possibly due to upcoming Federal Reserve decisions, economic data, or geopolitical risks. At the same time, large tech stocks—key drivers of the market rally—are seeing some profit-taking, further indicating a more defensive stance.
In the options market, there has been increased demand for downside protection. A rising put-to-call ratio and higher implied volatility suggest that traders are preparing for potential pullbacks rather than chasing new highs. Retail speculation has also slowed, with lower volumes in leveraged ETFs and call options.
Another sign of caution is the increase in money market fund inflows, as investors park cash in short-term instruments offering attractive yields. The U.S. Treasury’s ongoing debt issuance is also pulling liquidity away from equities.
While the Federal Reserve has hinted at possible rate cuts later this year, inflation remains a concern, keeping policymakers on hold for now. Market expectations for rate cuts have been pushed further out, tightening financial conditions and limiting excess liquidity that previously fueled stock market gains.
Overall, SPX liquidity trends this month suggest the market is at a turning point. While the index remains strong, the cautious stance in underlying market activity raises questions about whether stocks can continue higher without a fresh catalyst.
Most Depressing Chart EverThis chart is what I would consider the worse case scenario. Sideways action until we hit the Great Depression trend line. The two previous lost years are a little over 16 years long from start to break out. This shows an example of we were to complete that same pattern. We are long overdue for a correction and this would bring us back to reality.
SPX Intraday WedgieSPX threw a wedgie intraday, expected more of a bounce when it broke out, I guess there's no bounce when the algos are shut off.
Also, futures broke support after hours. (ES1! is SPX futures, I plot it all the time.)
I don't recommend going long until after the tariff announcements. This market is super sketchy now.
S&P500 Huge retest of former Channel Down.S&P500 / US500 took a big hit today following the higher than expected PCE, causing a price rejection on the 4hour MA50.
So far however the drop stopped exactly at the top of the former Channel Down of February-March.
With the 4hour RSI on the same level as March 10th, if this level holds, it will be a huge retest buy signal and will start a new bullish wave.
Based on this, we'd expect the 1day MA50 to be targeted at 5,850.
Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
S&P to find buyers at current market price?US500 - Intraday
Closed the day little net changed.
An overnight negative theme in Equities has led to a lower open this morning.
Immediate signals are hard to interpret.
Bespoke resistance is located at 5853.
Bespoke support is located at 5536.
Dips continue to attract buyers.
We look to Buy at 5609 (stop at 5572)
Our profit targets will be 5719 and 5853
Resistance: 5719 / 5737 / 5853
Support: 5616 / 5607 / 5536
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Market Neutral: Nasdaq, S&P500, Nikkei225, Hang SengThe equity indices has fallen to our target and we are seeing 5-wave completions. So I think it is a good time to reduce your shorts and move from a short to a more neutral stance. The current price is also a good support for the indices.
Remember that there is a weekend risk here also.
Good luck!
US500US500 Price Action Analysis and Trade Setups (March 28, 2025)
Price Action Summary:
Weekly Chart: Long-term uptrend intact, but recent rejection near 6,200 signals a medium-term correction.
Daily Chart: Price is consolidating near 5,600 after a sharp drop from highs. Bearish momentum persists.
4H Chart: Lower highs and lower lows confirm short-term bearish bias. Resistance at 5,750 is holding.
1H Chart: Intraday range between 5,550 and 5,750. Price struggling to break higher.
Trade of the Day (Day Trading Setup)
Short Setup:
Entry: 5,700 after rejection at resistance
Stop Loss: 5,770
Take Profit:
TP1: 5,620
TP2: 5,550
Reason: Short-term bearish structure with resistance holding at 5,750.
Swing Trading Setup
Short Setup:
Entry: Below 5,550 after daily close confirmation
Stop Loss: 5,650
Take Profit:
TP1: 5,300
TP2: 5,100
US500 Long Setup – 15M | NYC Reversal from Demand Bias: Bullish Trade Setup Overview:
After a deep selloff and subsequent accumulation pattern, US500 printed a clean bullish reaction from the lower demand zone during the NY session, signaling a potential continuation to the upside.
Key Confluences:
🔹 Accumulation + Manipulation Phase Complete
The chart shows classic Wyckoff accumulation followed by manipulation below short-term lows, leading into an aggressive NY open rally—suggesting institutional involvement.
🔹 Entry From Demand + FVG Reclaim
Price tagged the 5676.5 level, which aligns with the edge of a refined 15M FVG and an H1 demand zone. Strong rejection and follow-through confirms buyer strength.
🔹 Clean Break of Supply Structure
Price has pierced through a previous short-term supply zone, turning it into potential support. This is a signal that bulls are reclaiming control.
Bias: Bullish
Entry: 5676.5
Stop Loss: 5660.4
Take Profits:
TP1: 5693.6
TP2: 5720.0
TP3: 5781.6
SPX Targets 5400 - 5150 - 4750Hi Traders,
We so far we are following the pattern of 2022... If so we should be beginning the next down leg and looks like with Trump announcing auto Tarrifs today I expect it begins now instead of waiting till April 2, Liberation day, as Trump calls it. He is the default EW indicator which appears to capture the levels I was looking at using other TA. This won't be a sudden drop but I expect some if not all these levels to be hit once all is said and done. The market needs to become a lot cheaper for people to want to invest into a Tariff type environment. I wouldn't be surprised if he comes out with strong Tariffs on April 2 that we end up going into a recession by summer. The only way to get lower rates like trump wants is to tank the market which I think he is ok with to do. Lets see how this plays out.
S&P 500 Struggling Ahead of Key Economic ReportsThe S&P 500 is showing signs of weakness as it approaches a critical juncture ahead of tomorrow’s economic reports. After a sharp V-shaped recovery, the index is now facing resistance and struggling to maintain upward momentum. If key support levels fail to hold, we could see further downside in the coming sessions.
Key Levels to Watch:
5,700 - 5,720: A significant resistance zone where recent rallies have stalled. A break above this level could signal renewed bullish momentum.
5,650 - 5,670: A minor support area that previously acted as a pivot. Losing this level could increase selling pressure.
5,520 - 5,504: A major support zone that must hold to prevent further downside. If broken, it could trigger a larger sell-off.
5,350 - 5,400: A potential next area of support if the index continues to slide. This level aligns with previous consolidation zones.
4,790 - 4,800: A worst-case scenario target if market sentiment deteriorates significantly.
Technical Breakdown:
The current price action suggests a potential reversal if support levels do not hold. The index has failed to reclaim key resistance and is now at risk of breaking down further. Volume has increased during recent selling, indicating stronger downside pressure.
The next move will likely be dictated by tomorrow’s reports. If economic data comes in weaker than expected, it could fuel concerns of a slowdown, leading to further selling. Conversely, stronger-than-expected data may provide temporary relief, but resistance levels still need to be reclaimed for the uptrend to resume.
Market Sentiment and Strategy:
A break below 5,504 could trigger a wave of selling, making downside targets more likely.
If support holds and we see a strong bounce, it could offer a short-term buying opportunity.
Given increased volatility, traders should be cautious and monitor key levels closely.
With economic data on the horizon, the S&P 500 is at a critical decision point. The next 24-48 hours will determine whether the recent recovery holds or if further downside is ahead.
SPX a brear flag complete?SPX is going to finish a bear flag and could break down. The Vix is also showing slight upward strength but not much yet. Based on that I don't think we have much downside now in next 2/3 months. However the overall trend of VIX is trending upwards similar to 2022 making higher bottoms since Dec 24, So we could have a year with big swings like we did in 2022
Bearish drop?S&P500 (US500) is reacting off the pivot which acts as a pullback resistance and could drop to the 1st support which has been identified as a pullback support.
Pivot: 5,710.10
1st Support: 5,603.80
1st Resistance: 5,778.29
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.