SPX500Abu Sarah's Daily Pivot Points Indicator
For S&P 500 Index Futures
Automatically updates and identifies important support and resistance areas
Works on all time frames
US500FU trade ideas
$SPX - Recap of Last Week April 14-17
Last week we had a shortened Trading week because of Good Friday.
We opened the week with a gap up and got a rejection at the 30min 200MA.
++ You typically don’t want to go long at a downward facing moving average. ++
And this did play out all week. We got rejected at the downward facing 200MA on Monday, again on Tuesday.
On Wednesday we gapped down (UHC weighed on the market). Wednesday we had a big down day - closing about 2.25%
And then on Thursday we came back up but stayed underneath the 35EMA.
Thursday was the last day of the trading week, and look tat the setup we started the day with. Red 35EMA trading under the Blue 30min 200 (That was bearish)
30min 200 pointing down - that was bearish. And bear gap at the top of the implied move.
$SPX Monthly MACD Cross – Reset or Breakdown?The monthly MACD for the S&P 500 ( SP:SPX ) just crossed to the downside 📉 — a signal we’ve only seen a few times in the past decade.
Looking at the chart, this indicator also triggered during:
📉 2018 (Quick pullback)
🦠 2020 (COVID crash)
🐻 2022 (Extended bear market)
Now in 2025, we’re facing another sharp decline — but the question is:
👉 Is this just another quick reset like '18 & '20... or are we about to grind lower like 2022?
The MACD histogram is already in negative territory, and the price action is following the same pattern we saw before extended drawdowns.
What do you think: is this the beginning of something deeper? Or are we prepping for a snapback rally?
Drop your thoughts below 👇
US500 Bullish Momentum Boosted by Tariff ExemptionsUS500 Bullish Momentum Boosted by Tariff Exemptions
The US500 index may continue its upward trend after President Trump announced exemptions for smartphones, computers, and other tech products from new tariffs.
This decision eased market concerns, especially for companies like Apple, which rely heavily on manufacturing in China.
Trump had previously imposed steep tariffs on Chinese imports, but the exemptions now include semiconductors, solar cells, TV displays, and data storage devices. These changes could support further bullish movement in the market.
You may watch the analysis for further details!
Thank you!
make it possible, institutionalsJust maybe according to past data. We retailers just wishing well :)
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Target 🎯: 4750 (or) Escape Before the Target
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How Gann’s Square of 9 Reveals Hidden Time Cycles in the US500In today’s fast-moving markets, most traders are stuck reacting, chasing signals, hunting for breakouts, and trying to make sense of noise. But what if you could predict where the market might turn, not just based on price, but on time itself?
That’s exactly what W.D. Gann mastered. His tools, like the Square of 9, weren’t just about charts, they were about timing the rhythm of the market. Today, I’ll walk you through a real-world example on the US500, using Gann’s time technique on the 5-minute chart. This isn't theory. This is how you can bring Gann’s legacy to life in real-time trading.
Step 1: Don’t Start on the 5-Minute—Zoom Out First
The first thing to understand is that not every swing high or low is meaningful. To apply Gann’s time analysis correctly, you must choose swing points that matter—and that means looking at the higher timeframes.
Before diving into the 5-minute chart, I always analyze the 15-minute, 1-hour, and 4-hour charts. If a swing high or low on the 5-minute lines up with a key support or resistance zone from those larger timeframes, that’s your signal. These are levels where institutions and big players act, and that gives your analysis a real edge.
So, once I identified a swing high and low on the 5-minute chart that aligned perfectly with a 1-hour resistance zone and a 4-hour support level, I knew I had something solid.
Step 2: Counting Bars – The Foundation of Time Analysis
From the chosen swing low to the swing high, the market took 9 bars to complete the move. That number isn’t just a count—it becomes our anchor in time.
Using my custom-built Gann Square of 9 spreadsheet, I plugged in this value. The spreadsheet then calculated future bar counts where the 45-degree time angle repeats, based on Gann’s time rotation principle.
The output gave us these key numbers: 16, 25, 36, 49, 64, 81
These are not arbitrary. They are time-based vibration points derived from Gann’s spiral math—each one representing a future window where the market is likely to shift.
Step 3: Letting Time Lead the Trade
Let’s walk through what happened at each of these time windows:
Bar 16: The market attempted to push higher—a classic manipulation move. Then came a sharp reversal. The 45-degree vibration was in effect. This was a textbook Gann-style turning point.
Bar 25: No sharp reversal, but momentum slowed and price started consolidating. This was a structural pause—just as important as a reversal for those watching intraday shifts.
Bar 36: This one was dramatic. The market had been falling, but as we approached the 36th bar, rejection candles started appearing. Selling pressure dried up, and buyers stepped in. Soon after, a bullish breakout followed. The time vibration had called it again.
Bar 49: After a strong bullish run, the price stalled and reversed almost precisely at this time point. This marked a shift back to bearish sentiment.
Bar 64: The downtrend lost steam. Price began forming a new swing low, and as we passed the 64-bar mark, bullish momentum returned. Another clean reversal.
Bar 81: The final vibration in this sequence. The bullish move slowed, candles shrunk, and volume faded. Then came a breakdown. A bearish turn right on time.
What This Means for You as a Trader
This sequence—from bar 16 to 81—is a masterclass in how time drives the market. It shows that price action is not random. It's governed by hidden cycles that most traders overlook. But when you apply Gann’s methods with precision, the market reveals its rhythm.
All we did was:
Identify a meaningful swing (validated by higher timeframes)
Count the bars between the swing low and high
Let the Square of 9 calculate the future time vibrations
From there, we simply watched and waited. And the market played out almost to the bar.
Conclusion: From Reactive to Predictive Trading
The real power of Gann’s techniques lies not in magic, but in mathematical and astrological precision. When you understand how time and price interact, you stop reacting—you start forecasting.
You stop chasing trades—you start anticipating reversals.
Gann’s Square of 9 isn’t just an old-school tool. With the right application, it becomes a modern forecasting machine. And with the help of tools like my custom spreadsheet, the entire process becomes simple, streamlined, and incredibly effective.
So the next time you’re about to take a trade, ask yourself:
Are you following price? Or are you following time?
Because when time is on your side, the market moves in your direction—not the other way around.
Bearish WXY Model Forming at Key Resistance – Caution at the TopSP:SPX just crossed the Monthly High, but the structure resembles a bearish WXY correction, and we’re now approaching critical levels.
🔍 Key Levels to Watch:
5481–5572: Weekly FVG resistance + 61.8% Fib Extension – potential top of the rally.
5293: The 50% retracement from the Apr 20 low – a break below confirms the bearish WXY and opens the door to new lows.
📌 Scenario Outlook:
✅ Bullish case: Room for upside toward 5685–5750, but only if we close above 5572 Weekly to invalidate the FVG.
⚠️ Bearish case: Current price action aligns with divergence (as seen with DJI) + WXY model. Caution advised — rallies may be fading.
💬 Chart attached shows the WXY structure forming with key divergences.
Bitcoin is correlated to the stock market.Bitcoin is correlated to the stock market.
What do you think is most likely gonna happen once we get a Dotcom or GFC type of bust?
Narratives and storylines change, the chart analysis remains the same.
Another AB=CD formation for the S&P 500?Following a low of 4,835 on 7 April – which touched gloves with an ‘alternate’ AB=CD support (1.272% Fibonacci projection ratio) at 4,983 – the S&P 500 index is on course to pencil in an ‘equal’ AB=CD resistance (100% projection ratio) at 5,746. Notably, the 5,746 level is accommodated by a 1.618% Fibonacci projection ratio at 5,718, as well as a nearby 61.8% Fibonacci retracement ratio at 5,652.
Also of technical relevance, the market index has completed the dreaded ‘Death Cross’, which is the 50-day SMA at 5,645 crossing below the 200-day SMA at 5,746 (converges with the above-noted resistance zone), and suggests that a longer-term downtrend could be on the cards.
S&P 500: The Indicator to Watch Right NowWith US stocks bouncing on Trump’s backtracking over tariffs — just weeks after a 20% correction — it’s fair to say caution is the name of the game. Even though the headline risk has eased slightly, markets are still navigating through a fog of geopolitical noise and economic uncertainty.
In moments like these, where the fundamental picture feels muddy at best, objective technical analysis can offer clarity — not crystal-ball predictions, but structure and focus.
The Traditional Technical Backdrop
Traditional technical analysis isn’t about magic lines on a chart — it’s about mapping out price behaviour with tools that help us stay grounded. Structural levels, trendlines, and a couple of moving averages might seem basic, but they’ve stood the test of time because they do something incredibly useful: they make sense of chaos.
In the case of the S&P 500, several key structural levels should anchor any serious analysis. We’ve got the pre-sell-off highs from February, the April lows, and two interim levels — broken support levels that flipped to resistance during retracement rallies between February and April. These levels now act like milestones in the market’s memory.
Drawing a downward-sloping trendline through the swing highs during the correction gives us a good sense of the broader downtrend. More recently, we’ve also started to see a modest uptrend emerge from the April lows. That creates something of a wedge formation — a narrowing range that’s coiling tighter as buyers and sellers battle it out.
Simple moving averages like the 50-day and 200-day are useful additions here. While they’re lagging by nature, they give us immediate context for where price sits in relation to recent momentum and long-term sentiment.
US500 Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
The Indicator to Watch
There’s a good argument to be made that the most important indicator to watch right now, with the S&P 500 trying to claw back ground, isn’t a moving average or RSI — it’s Anchored VWAP.
Anchored Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) is one of the most effective ways to cut through the noise and see who’s really in control — buyers or sellers. It tells you the average price that traders have paid for the index, weighted by volume, since a specific event or turning point. And unlike regular VWAP that resets daily, Anchored VWAP lets us choose a significant date and track how price interacts with that “anchor.”
If we anchor the VWAP to the February highs, we’re essentially tracking how the market has performed relative to that peak. This anchored VWAP line becomes a kind of gravity — it reflects the average cost basis of those who bought just before the sell-off. If price remains below it, it tells us those buyers are still underwater, and therefore less likely to add risk. Sellers, in that case, still hold the advantage.
On the flip side, if we anchor VWAP to the April lows, we get the average cost basis of the recent bounce. This line reflects where more optimistic, bottom-fishing buyers stepped in. If price holds above this level, it suggests those participants remain in profit — and potentially willing to buy dips.
Right now, the S&P 500 is stuck in a battle between these two anchored VWAP levels. One tracks the pain, the other tracks the hope. It’s a VWAP funnel, and it won’t last forever. Eventually, price will break above one and leave the other behind — and when it does, we’ll have an objective answer as to which side is winning.
Will it be the late bears holding on from February’s highs, or the early bulls from the April lows? The answer is coming. Keep your eyes on the anchored VWAPs — they’re telling the real story.
US500 Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
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stuck between 2 trend lines!Boost and follow for more 🔥SPX is holding trend support, resistance = support is also showing up. push higher into trend resistance can happen from here.
maybe we get a break of the trend resistance sometimes in the next few weeks.. this seems like a choppy week with no crazy moves
chart request from @sweatytrigger
S&P500 INTRADAY resistance retest US stock futures are pointing higher after Monday's sharp selloff. Despite the bounce, safe-haven demand remains strong — gold hit a new record, and the yen strengthened past 140/USD for the first time since September.
Donald Trump called for immediate Fed rate cuts, warning that the economy could slow without action. He argued inflation is not a concern, citing falling energy and food prices, and criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell once again.
The US reported “significant progress” on a trade deal with India after talks between VP JD Vance and PM Modi. The roadmap aims to ease trade tensions and potentially shield India from future US tariffs.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 5509
Resistance Level 2: 5660
Resistance Level 3: 5787
Support Level 1: 5110
Support Level 2: 4947
Support Level 3: 4816
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
The creeping marketWe are still at support as of now, and the VIX looks like it may be a false breakout. It will be particularly interesting to see if we can hold this level into the close.
Would be interesting to see the market bottom during summerIt would be interesting to see the market bottom at the cross section of the 200 week moving average with the 2022 highs some time by June/July. Markets aren't cheap now however they are above the 200 week.
My framework:
Markets above 200dma go 100% long with base equity allocation (decrease to 90% if RSI is overheated)
Markets below 200dma but above 200 week go 70% long with defensive bias
Markets below 200 week go 25% long with defensive bias, change to high risk with 70% allocation once cross above 200 week.
Saves me from the large drawdowns and shaves off some percentage point off performance however having buying power when all hell breaks loose can result in decade+ alpha opportunities.
The only sector currently above its 200dma is the equal weight utilities which I like in this environments all other sectors are below the 200dma. In such an environment markets are likely to be biased to the downside.
Unsustainable Market Trends I'm overall a bear but I think we'll probably make a new high. I've explained previously how a new high does not annul the bear thesis since there are various spike out patterns. Let's now talk about the unsustainable nature of what we're currently seeing.
First things first - trendlines going up at angles of over 70 degrees is not good! 35 - 45 degrees, good. That's quite sustainable. It can keep doing that. 70+, not good. It can not keep doing that.
I hate to speak in absolutes, but we can be fairly sure markets can not rise at this angle indefinitely without something really bad happening. Were this to happen, it would have to be a result of devaluation of the currency and although stock markets would be higher, everyone would be hurting. Especially average people.
A highly optimistic forecast of how this can end well would be after making gains markets go into a prolonged period of contraction. There's no more straight up price action but there's also nothing terrible to the downside. I can't really think of any examples of this ever happening. I guess the closest would be the big range before the 80s/90s breakout (But that was not like this into the high).
The most common outcome of markets going up at angles of over 70 degrees is they come down at angles of over 70 degrees!
I feel the moves of 2021 and 2023 have made the market exceptionally more risky. Markets looked extended in 2018 - 2019, but what felt like mania in 2018 was dwarfed in the following years with full years of rallies at angles above what is sustainable. It'd be highly uncommon for these moves to resolve without spiking out the low of where they started.
The tendency of parabolic moves to resolve themselves by trading under where the move started becomes increasingly worrying as we move further from that level. It's around 2,200 in SPX. Even if it came from the current high this would forecast a move worse than 2008. Were it to come from a bit higher, this would start to forecast a move on the scale of depression crashes (At least 80% and lasting at least 10 yrs without a new high).
What I am trying to say here is, if markets keep going up at angles of over 70 (And SPX really isn't far off 100 right now), something very bad is likely to happen. And it's looking likely SPX may do this. Markets may break and make a blow-off without further major retracements and this style of blow-off can be 20 - 25% above the last high.
This would give us estimates for a blow-off ending 6,000 area in SPX and just under 20,000 area in Nasdaq. Both of these would be drawing down at least 70% to break the low of where the excessive angle of buying started. While this is nothing earthshattering in terms of charting norms (What goes up comes down), this would be significant in the real world.
If this big spike out is coming, I think we're seeing the grand final act of the bull market. It will be the best it has ever been and it will be the best we're going to see it in a significant amount of time.
If markets continue higher at the same or steeper angles than the recent climbs (Especially if there's no big pullbacks) I think we'll have seen every single major warning signal there was at the top of rallies that would turn into multiple decade bears.
S&P 500 Pullback Nearing End? Hammer + Elliott Wave Say Rebound!The S&P 500 Index ( FOREXCOM:SPX500 ) is one of the most important indexes in the financial market these days , with the cryptocurrency market and especially Bitcoin ( BINANCE:BTCUSDT ) having a strong correlation with this index .
After Donald Trump suspended tariffs on 90 countries (except China) , the S&P 500 Index started to rise and seems to have managed to break through the Resistance zone($5,284-$5,094) and is pulling back to this zone .
One of the signs of a reversa l of the S&P 500 Index can be the formation of the Hammer Candlestick Pattern , which announces the end of the pullback .
In terms of Elliott Wave theory , it seems that the S&P 500 Index is completing a corrective wave that could be in the form of a main wave 4 ( it is correcting both in time and price ).
I expect the S&P 500 Index to resume its upward trend in the coming hours, if nothing special is released , and to reach the Resistance zone($5,680-$5,500) and Yearly Pivot Point . If this happens, today's Bitcoin analysis could also be correct .
Note: In the worst case, if the S&P 500 Index touches $5,050, we should expect a further decline in the S&P 500 Index and Bitcoin.
Do you think the S&P 500 Index will return to an upward trend, or is this increase temporary?
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
S&P 500 Index Analyze (SPX500USD),1-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Sideways for nowA rally today to test the previous highs is possible, but be aware that in this sideways range, what comes up then goes down and vice versa.
US500's performance this week will be crucial in determiningUS500 Weekly Analysis
The US500 index is currently exhibiting bearish tendencies, but a crucial level to monitor is $5491. This level has the potential to act as a resistance point, and we're looking for a possible selling opportunity around this area. However, if the market breaks above $5491, it could signal a shift in bias towards bullish territory, potentially leading to a significant upward move.
Key Levels to Watch:
1. Sell Zone: $5491 - This level is critical in determining the next move. We'll be watching for confirmation to sell, such as bearish candlestick patterns or trend indicators.
2. Resistance Area: $5730 - $5790 - A strong resistance zone that could potentially cap upward movements.
Trading Strategy:
1. Wait for Confirmation: We'll wait for the market to reach the $5491 level and look for confirmation to sell. This could include bearish candlestick patterns, trend indicators, or other technical signals.
2. Breakout Scenario: If the market breaks above $5491, we'll reassess the bullish potential and look for opportunities to buy.
3. Risk Management: It's essential to manage risk effectively, setting stop-losses and take-profits according to our trading plan.
Market Outlook:
The US500's performance this week will be crucial in determining the next direction. We'll be monitoring the market closely, analyzing price action, and providing updates on any developments. Stay tuned for our analysis and guidance on potential trading opportunities.
By keeping a close eye on these key levels and waiting for confirmation, we can make more informed trading decisions and navigate the markets effectively.
US500 BULLISH SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLEhi
Fundamental view
The **US500 index** dropped due to several key factors affecting the U.S. stock market:
📉 **Tech Stock Decline** – Technology stocks faced heavy pressure, especially after **Nvidia** plunged **6.9%** due to U.S. restrictions on AI chip exports to China. Other stocks like **AMD (-7.3%)** and **Micron Technology (-2.4%)** also fell.
💰 **Federal Reserve Uncertainty** – Remarks from **Fed Chair Jerome Powell** raised concerns in the market. Powell warned that new tariffs could trigger higher inflation and slow economic growth, making investors uncertain about interest rate policies.
🛍️ **Surge in Retail Sales** – Retail sales jumped **1.4%** in March as consumers rushed to buy before new tariffs took effect. This highlights economic uncertainty, pushing investors to sell their stocks.
Overall, a mix of trade tensions, uncertain monetary policy, and a tech stock sell-off caused the **US500 index to drop 120.93 points (-2.24%)** on **April 16, 2025**.
Technical view
Yes, the **bullish symmetrical triangle** pattern is often a strong signal for upward price movement. When the price moves within this pattern, it usually indicates a **tightening volatility** before a **breakout**, which can present a good market entry opportunity.
🔍 **Breakout Confirmation**
1️⃣ Increased trading volume when price breaks above the **upper trendline**.
2️⃣ A closing candle above the **triangle resistance** for a valid signal.
3️⃣ Price targets can be measured using the pattern’s initial height as a projection.
📈 **Potential Price Movement**
If the breakout happens, the price could surge toward the next **resistance level**. However, if the breakout fails and price moves below support, the pattern could turn **bearish**.
Warren Buffett famously said, “Be greedy when others are fearful.”
good luck
**My trading strategy is not intended to be a signal. It's a process of learning about market structure and sharpening my trading my skills also for my trade journal**
Thanks a lot for your support
SPX path forwardThe SPX appears to be transitioning out of Wave 4 and initiating Wave 5 of the current Elliott Wave cycle. This breakout from Wave 4 suggests the final leg of the broader impulsive structure is underway, typically characterized by renewed momentum and trader interest.
At this stage, we can expect a pullback or bounce near the previous Wave 3 low, which often acts as a key support level during the early stages of Wave 5 development. Should this level hold, price action is likely to resume downward, completing Wave 5 within the projected target zone.
Downside targets for Wave 5 completion are currently in the 4,700 to 4,600 range, aligning with a typical Fibonacci extension (0.618–1.0 of Wave 1 through Wave 3) and previous structure zones that may offer confluence.
