SPX - Time for a correction? To make it very simple,
Prices have been going up very nicely those last few weeks and months.
Everyone is happy but as we know that can't last.
NASDAQ:OPEN seems to be the latest pump and dump and it's just another sign of a coming correction imho.
Most stocks I've been following have reached resistance zone, levels where profit taking is very likely.
$S&P500 seems to have made a fifth wave, RSI divergence is present and confirming that.
It's difficult to pinpoint the exact top of course so I'm giving myself some leeway and use a small 1% stop loss in this case.
US500FU trade ideas
Waiting for a Clear Signal: Too Early to Short the IndexNothing interesting is forming on the index so far.
My outlook remains neutral.
I previously attempted to short it, but those attempts were unsuccessful. Now I need to wait for a more reliable entry point — the chart will show the way.
For now, I’m staying on the sidelines.
Historically, the start of the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle has always coincided with the beginning of a decline in the stock market. I believe this time won’t be an exception — but for now, it’s too early to short.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of July 18, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During the current trading week, the S&P 500 Index has demonstrated a predominantly upward trajectory. It has successfully retested the Mean Support level at 6200 and established a new Key Resistance level at 6314. Currently, the index displays a bullish sentiment, with the objective for the Outer Index Rally set at 6420.
Nevertheless, it is essential to recognize that the current price action may result in a decline, potentially leading to a retest of the Mean Support at 6244 and extending to the Mean Support at 6201. Following this potential downward movement, it is anticipated that the index will resume its upward trend, driving the price action towards the Key Resistance level at 6314 and ultimately achieving the Outer Index Rally target of 6420.
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More upside for SPX500USDHi traders,
Last week SPX500USD made a small correction down (grey wave 4) and after it swept the dotted trendline it went up again. This could be the next impulse wave 5 (grey).
If this is true, then next week we could see more upside for this pair.
Let's see what the market does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for a small pullback and a change in orderflow to bullish on a lower timeframe to trade longs.
If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with Wave analysis, then please make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
US stocks hold near record highs on strong 2Q earnings
Despite elevated valuation pressures, US equities remain near all-time highs. While tariff concerns persist, resilient US economic data continues to support the market's upward momentum.
United Airlines reported a 1.7% YoY increase in 2Q revenue, citing easing geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties and a double-digit rebound in corporate demand. Meanwhile, earnings and share performance among mega-cap stocks have also been strong.
Netflix (NFLX) beat market expectations with 2Q revenue of $11.08 billion and EPS of $7.19. At the same time, Nvidia (NVDA) reached a fresh all-time high on renewed optimism over a potential resumption of exports to China.
After testing the support at 6285, US500 rebounded and approached its previous high again. The index holds above EMA21, suggesting the continuation of bullish momentum. If US500 remains above both EMA21 and the support at 6285, the index could breach the 6320 high. Conversely, if the US500 breaks below the support at 6285, the index could retreat further toward 6200.
5 Proven Tricks to Trade Without FOMO After Missing Your TriggerYo traders! In this video, I’m breaking down what to do if you miss a trading trigger , so you can stay calm , avoid FOMO , and still catch the next move. We’re diving into five solid strategies to re-enter the market without losing your cool:
Buy on the pullback zone.
Buy with an engulfing candle after a pullback.
Buy after breaking the resistance formed by the pullback.
Buy after the second wave with an indecision candle.
Buy after breaking a major resistance post-second wave, confirmed by RSI or momentum oscillators.
These tips are all about keeping your trades smart and your head in the game. For more on indecision candles, check out this lesson . Wanna master breakout trading? Here’s the breakout trading guide . Drop your thoughts in the comments, boost if you vibe with it, and let’s grow together! 😎
S&P 500 (US500) maintains strong bullish momentum.S&P 500 (US500) maintains strong bullish momentum.
Technical Outlook
S&P 500 (US500) holds a strong bullish structure, continuing to print higher highs and higher lows above diverging EMAs, signaling sustained upward momentum.
RSI has eased from overbought levels, now hovering below 70, while price consolidates sideways near recent highs, a typical pause before potential continuation.
ADX remains elevated above DI+ and DI-, with DI+ above DI–, confirming trend strength and ongoing bullish momentum.
A breakout above the 6300 all-time high would confirm a bullish continuation, with the next upside target near 6500 based on the flagpole projection.
Conversely, a drop below 6200 may trigger a deeper pullback toward the 6050 support zone.
Fundamental Outlook
Corporate earnings, particularly in the tech sector, continue to exceed expectations, providing significant support to the index. Analysts project continued earnings growth for S&P 500 companies, with profits expected to grow by approximately 9% year-over-year in 2025, reinforcing confidence in the index’s rising fundamental valuation.
Markets are now pricing in earlier Fed rate cuts, driven by evolving economic data and political pressure.
Economic data such as stronger-than-expected retail sales and unemployment claims, though the latter could reduce the likelihood of imminent rate cuts, signal robust consumer demand, which should continue to support economic growth.
by Terence Hove, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
S&P overbought sideways consolidation supported at 6207 Fed Signals Rate Cut Ahead
US Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller called for a quarter-point interest rate cut this month, citing cooling inflation and minimal upside price risks. His dovish stance diverges from the broader FOMC consensus, which still views the labor market as resilient.
UK-Germany Defense Pact
UK PM Keir Starmer signaled potential alignment with Germany to purchase US weapons for Ukraine, following the signing of the “Kensington Treaty.” The accord emphasizes mutual defense cooperation, raising expectations of deeper UK involvement in European security initiatives.
Intel Concerns with Spain
US lawmakers raised concerns over intelligence sharing with Spain, due to the country's reliance on Huawei for its wiretap infrastructure, highlighting geopolitical tech tensions.
Trump Authorizes Epstein Testimony Release
President Donald Trump has authorized the release of grand jury testimony from the Epstein case, yielding to public and political pressure for greater transparency.
S&P 500 Outlook:
Waller’s call for a rate cut adds bullish momentum for equities, especially rate-sensitive sectors like tech and real estate. While geopolitical tensions and defense headlines introduce headline risk, the dovish Fed signal is likely to dominate sentiment in the near term. Expect S&P 500 support near 6207 with upside potential if more Fed officials echo Waller’s stance.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 6336
Resistance Level 2: 6383
Resistance Level 3: 6420
Support Level 1: 6207
Support Level 2: 6160
Support Level 3: 6113
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S&P500 (CASH500) (SPX500) SHORT - Head and shoulders 30minRisk/reward = 3.3
Entry price = 6314.8
Stop loss price = 6318.4
Take profit level 1 (50%) = 6301.3
Take profit level 2 (50%) = 6297.5
Waiting on validation from a few other variables.
For example, waiting for the current 30min candle to close in range.
Letssss goooooo
S&P 500 H4 | Making a run towards a new ATH?The S&P 500 (SPX500) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 6,299.72 which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 6,195.00 which is a level that lies underneath a multi-swing-low support.
Take profit is at 6,369.28 which is a resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
High Risk Investment Warning
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SPX: Long-Term Strength and Opportunity
SPX: Long-Term Strength and Opportunity
The S&P 500 (SPX) on this monthly timeframe clearly illustrates a powerful long-term uptrend, where each significant pullback has consistently presented a valuable buying opportunity. Most recently, the market effectively retested and bounced off the established long-term trendline, even amidst geopolitical concerns such as the April low experienced when tariffs were announced, underscoring the underlying bullish resilience. This sustained trajectory suggests continued upward momentum, reaffirming the 'buy the dip' strategy within this robust market environment.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this chart is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading and investing involve substantial risk and are not suitable for every investor. You should carefully consider your financial situation and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The creator of this chart does not guarantee any specific outcome or profit and is not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of using this information. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Use this information at your own risk. This chart has been created for my own improvement in Trading and Investment Analysis. Please do your own analysis before any investments.
Market Mood Sours as Inflation Surprises AgainU.S. stock markets were under pressure on Tuesday after new inflation data came in higher than expected. This has made investors rethink how soon the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates.
What Happened?
● The Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded its biggest monthly rise in 5 months.
● Core inflation (which excludes food and energy) jumped by 2.9% compared to last year — more than the Fed's 2% target.
What It Means
● Investors had expected the Fed to cut interest rates multiple times in 2025.
● After the inflation report, they now think the Fed will cut less than expected.
● The chances of a rate cut in September also dropped sharply.
Market Impact
● Bond yields went up — the 10-year U.S. government bond yield rose to 4.49%, making borrowing more expensive.
● Stock futures fell (Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq), as higher yields tend to hurt company profits and stock prices.
S&P 500 and Dow Struggle at Resistance
● Both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones faced resistance near all-time highs.
● This rejection suggests potential for further short-term pullback, especially if macro pressures like inflation and rate uncertainty persist.
Near-Term Outlook
With inflation running hotter than expected, hopes for early Fed rate cuts have cooled. Traders and investors should remain cautious, manage risk actively, and prepare for continued volatility in the coming weeks.