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US 500 - Rolling Future (Per 1.0)US 500 - Rolling Future (Per 1.0)US 500 - Rolling Future (Per 1.0)

US 500 - Rolling Future (Per 1.0)

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US500FU trade ideas

SP500 Plunges 8% in a day!! Oversold or more pain ahead?The SP500 has suffered a massive 8% drop, currently trading around 5158 at the moment, after market turmoil triggered by Trump's new tariff war. Panic selling has pushed the 30-minute RSIto an extreme oversold level of around 28, signaling potential short-term exhaustion. Possible Scenarios: 🔹 Short-Term Bounce? The RSI suggests a possible technical rebound, with key resistance around 5200-5250 if buyers step in. Watch for volume confirmation. 🔹 Further Downside? If panic continues, the next major support lies at 5100, followed by 5000 psychological level, where institutional buyers might defend price. ⚠️ Caution: Markets remain highly volatile! A dead-cat bounce is possible, but uncertainty surrounding tariffs could fuel more downside pressure. Stay sharp! 📊 What’s Your Take? Will SP500 recover or break lower? Drop your thoughts below! 🚀🔥 #SP500 #StockMarketCrash #Tariffs #Trading #TechnicalAnalysis #RSI
TRADENATION:US500
by AkiSignals
Don’t Let a Green Candle Fool YouDon’t Let a Green Candle Fool You | SPX Analysis 01 April 2025 We got the “boing” – but not the bounce that changes anything meaningful. Monday opened like a trap door - gap down, quick poke near 5500, and then a full day of rallying that had CNBC anchors high-fiving like they just called the bottom of the century. Except… they didn’t. We’ve seen this act before. One-day rallies that puff up like a balloon, then vanish. And just like before, I’m not chasing a single green candle or headline optimism. I’m not a bull until 5700 is reclaimed - simple as that. That’s the bear flag failure point, the GEX pivot, and my personal line in the sand. So while the crowd celebrates a maybe-double-bottom, I’m keeping my slippers firmly on the bear side of the wardrobe. And if Monday proved anything, it’s this… Sometimes, the trades you forget about end up being the ones that pay. This Bounce Doesn’t Fool Me – Here's Why I’m Still Short Let’s call it what it is: a rally inside a bearish structure. Until we break the top of that structure, it’s just noise. Here’s what really matters: Monday gapped down, dropped toward 5500, and then staged a rally. Everyone’s calling “double bottom!” - but I’ve seen more convincing bottoms on a bowling ball. These reversal days have been common lately – I counted five in the last six weeks. We’re still under 5700, which is the GEX flip, the flag failure, and the bullish invalidation. That means I’m still riding: Bear Swing #1 – opened last week, still on. New aggressive shorts – 10-min bearish Tag ‘n Turn below 5500 only. Bonus: A Forgotten Trade Hit Target on Monday You’ll love this. I had a bearish swing from around 20 March. Honestly, I forgot about it. Wrote it off. It was gathering dust in the corner of my options book. Then, boom – Monday open… "Order Filled". Target hit. Gap did the job. Payout in the pocket. It’s a reminder every trader needs: “It ain’t over until expiration… and sometimes not even then.” GEX Analysis Update Whole and half numbers acting as support and resistance Expert Insights:  Avoid These Rookie Mistakes ❌ Mistake #1: Getting Sucked Into Green Candles Just because the market bounced doesn’t mean it’s time to flip bull. Watch the levels, not your feelings. ❌ Mistake #2: Cancelling Too Early  The Trade’s Not Over Just Because You’re Bored Most traders kill good trades because they get impatient. They cancel too soon. They “manage the trade” to death. Or worse, they chase a green candle and flip bias on a whim. Here’s what Monday reminded us: ✅ Let the trade breathe. That bear swing from 20 March? Forgotten. Ignored. Hit target anyway. ✅ Stick to your plan, not your mood. The market rallied. But did it change the structure? No. Still below 5700. Still bearish bias. ✅ A good trade doesn’t need your babysitting. Set the rules. Place the trade. Walk away. Check back later with a smile. The traders who win are the ones who stop trying to outsmart their own system. --- Fun Fact In 1999, a 15-year-old stock trader named Jonathan Lebed made over $800,000 pumping penny stocks from his bedroom... before the SEC came knocking. Moral of the story? Markets will always reward confidence, consistency, and a little bit of cunning – but it’s the trader who sticks to a rule-based system who lasts beyond the headlines.
SP:SPXShort
by MrPhilNewton
Monthly Chart SPX Cautious Liquidity PositioningThis month, the S&P 500 (SPX) has shown signs of a cautious liquidity shift as investors take a more measured approach to risk. While the index remains near all-time highs, underlying market activity suggests hesitation rather than aggressive buying. I currently have no active positions. Investors are rotating out of high-growth stocks and into more defensive sectors like utilities, healthcare, and consumer staples. This shift signals concerns about potential volatility, possibly due to upcoming Federal Reserve decisions, economic data, or geopolitical risks. At the same time, large tech stocks—key drivers of the market rally—are seeing some profit-taking, further indicating a more defensive stance. In the options market, there has been increased demand for downside protection. A rising put-to-call ratio and higher implied volatility suggest that traders are preparing for potential pullbacks rather than chasing new highs. Retail speculation has also slowed, with lower volumes in leveraged ETFs and call options. Another sign of caution is the increase in money market fund inflows, as investors park cash in short-term instruments offering attractive yields. The U.S. Treasury’s ongoing debt issuance is also pulling liquidity away from equities. While the Federal Reserve has hinted at possible rate cuts later this year, inflation remains a concern, keeping policymakers on hold for now. Market expectations for rate cuts have been pushed further out, tightening financial conditions and limiting excess liquidity that previously fueled stock market gains. Overall, SPX liquidity trends this month suggest the market is at a turning point. While the index remains strong, the cautious stance in underlying market activity raises questions about whether stocks can continue higher without a fresh catalyst.
SP:SPX
by invinoveritas7671
How low will it go? The S&P Bear MarketI don't believe the market has bottomed yet. There is more to come. Trump's tariffs will continue to cause uncertainty and as economic figures confirm a US slowdown, stock markets could fall further. From a technical perspective, I will be looking to buy between 4700 and 5200. This is based on evident weekly horizontal levels, bullish channel support, and 100 and 200 SMA's. VANTAGE:SP500 PEPPERSTONE:US500 ICMARKETS:US500 OANDA:SPX500USD
VANTAGE:SP500
by Samuel_Morton_Trader
No Bottom in the S&P 500 Yet!Unsurprisingly, the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX Index) – one of the most popular measures of US stock market volatility – recently shook hands with 30.00, levels not seen since August 2024. As a result, I am closely monitoring the daily charts of the VIX (with standard Bollinger Bands overlaid) and the S&P 500. As shown on the charts, the VIX closed above the upper Bollinger Band, signalling that sentiment could be overstretched and may revert to the mean. Consequently, as on many occasions in the past, this suggests that S&P 500 bulls may attempt to step in. However, chart studies reveal support is not evident until 5,190, which happens to be joined by a 100% projection ratio at 5,152 (an equal AB=CD support pattern). Interestingly, this indicates that further underperformance and higher VIX levels could be on the table before we see signs of a reversal. Written by FP Markets Chief Market Analyst Aaron Hill
SP:SPXShort
by FPMarkets
S&P500 - Donald Trump Is Crashing Markets!S&P500 ( TVC:SPX ) is starting a correction: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 Since Donald Trump was elected the markets have been super volatile and clearly not too easy to trade. But now it seems like bears are slowly taking over the entire U.S. stock market after we just saw a drop of -10% within a couple of days and a correction becomes more and more likely. Levels to watch: $6.100, $4.800 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
TVC:SPXShort
by basictradingtv
26
S&P 500 to tank to 5,100 pointsPEPPERSTONE:US500 The S&P 500 broke below critical support after Trump announce massive tariffs on everyone, worst than expected. Volume is increasing to the downside, and it looks like the next wave down has already started. Wave C is supposed to be equal or larger than wave A, and reach the next critical support, which will lead us to 5,100 points in the next couple of weeks. I heard that net tariffs on China are 54%, does than means that iPhones are going to rise in price 54%? Maybe it will be reconsidered later, and the market will bounce in the future, but not likely in the short term. Good luck to you
PEPPERSTONE:US500Short
by Raul_Dominguez
US500 Price ActionHello Trader, As you can see, the market is currently moving to the downside, approaching a clearly identified Demand Zone. Remember, as I always emphasize: no liquidity, no valid zone. Therefore, I've also marked liquidity levels located just above this Demand Zone, along with a suggested safe Stop Loss (SL) placement. However, please keep in mind that no level is truly "safe" in trading, which is precisely why we always use stop losses and actively manage risk on every trade. Additionally, I've highlighted two potential Take Profit (TP) areas: one where you might consider closing your trade early for safety, and another where you could hold your position if price action continues to move favorably. As always, avoid greed, prioritize risk management, and trade responsibly. Wishing you all the best and happy trading! Thank you.
PEPPERSTONE:US500Long
by SuvashishFx
Trump’s Triumph or Tragedy?The S&P 500 recently faced a sharp decline, with many rushing to blame renewed trade war tensions under President Trump's second term. But is this downturn truly a political reaction — or was it already baked into the market’s DNA? A deeper dive using Elliott Wave Theory suggests something far more structural: the recent fall is part of a broader wave pattern, and the real crash hasn’t even begun. A Look Back: How the Market Reacted to Tariffs in Trump's First Term During Trump’s first presidency: First Tariff Hike caused an 11.77% drop Second Tariff Hike led to an 8.35% decline China’s reaction triggered a 20% fall Despite this turbulence, the market rebounded sharply, climbing 44% post-trade war — forming a textbook Wave 5 extension. This historical context is crucial: event-based declines often align with technical wave structures, not random panic. Why the Market Fell Now (and Not Earlier) Trump’s second term victory wasn’t unexpected. Neither was his return to tariff-heavy policies. So why didn’t the market react earlier? 📉 Because this isn’t about Tariffs . It’s about Wave 4. The current market downturn coincides with the natural Wave 4 correction of a multi-decade Elliott Wave cycle. This phase is often sharp and emotional — yet incomplete. The final Wave 5 rally is still ahead, possibly pushing the index to new highs above 7,000. The Calm Before the Storm: What Comes After Wave 5 Following the euphoric rally of Wave 5, the market is expected to face a massive correction — Wave II — projected to be as severe as the 2008-09 financial crisis, if not worse. Potential triggers: Overleveraged markets Global debt bubbles Geopolitical instability Inflation shockwaves AI and tech overvaluation Conclusion: Trump’s Triumph or Tragedy? This wave analysis raises the question: will Trump’s second term be remembered for a market rally or a devastating crash? The answer may be both. ✅ Short-term triumph via Wave 5 ⚠️ Long-term tragedy via Wave II The smart investor will ride the wave — but also prepare for the fall. Key Takeaways: Current decline = Wave 4, not the final crash Wave 5 (upside) may still take S&P to new highs Post-Wave 5 = Major correction, possibly like 2008 Trump’s tariffs are catalysts, but not the root cause Technical patterns > political events in long-term moves
SP:SPXLong
by BISHNU_P_BASYAL
S&P 500 correction before the global fall.S&P 500 correction before the global fall of the usa stock market. Hey traders! I’m sure many of you have noticed that after the introduction of retaliatory tariffs, the markets started getting pretty choppy. The S&P 500 took a serious dive. • On the weekly chart, I’ve marked a support level + the 161.8% Fibonacci level, where we might see a bounce back to the $5680–$5800 range. • But from there, I think we could see the start of a major crash—both in equities and crypto—that could last 1–2 years. • Based on my estimates, the S&P 500 could drop back to 2020–2021 levels, a wide range of 2200–3000. • For Bitcoin, we’re talking around $5000; for Ethereum, $100–$300; and for Solana, $2–$12. 3D Chart: 3W Chart: Real-world events that could tank the stock market this hard: Global Recession: If major economies (US, China, EU) slide into a recession at the same time—think trade wars, rampant inflation, or a debt crisis—investors will dump risky assets like hot potatoes. Trade War Escalation: Harsher tariffs between the US and China/EU could wreck supply chains, crush corporate earnings, and spark a full-on market panic. Geopolitical Conflict: A big blow-up—like a full-scale war or crisis (say, Taiwan or the Middle East)—could send capital fleeing to safe havens (gold, bonds), while stocks and crypto get slaughtered. Collapse of a Major Financial Player: If a big bank or hedge fund goes bust (Lehman Brothers 2.0-style) due to an overheated market or bad debt, it could trigger a domino effect. Energy Crisis: A spike in oil/gas prices (from sanctions or conflicts, for example) could kneecap the economy and drag risk assets down with it. Market Bubble Burst: If the current rally turns out to be a massive bubble (and plenty of folks think it is), its pop could pull indexes down all on its own. Looming Wars: A potential Russia-Europe war starting as early as 2025, or an Iran-Israel conflict that drags in multiple nations, could destabilize global markets, spike energy prices, and send investors running for the exits.
VANTAGE:SP500Long
by SergioRichi
SPX developing a wedge similar to 2022As I write this futures are sharply down to 5440 and ViX is at 40. I expect to see a short technical bounce to about 5550, being at major trendline. The wedge formation is similar to 2022. A breakout from Wedge would be sharp either way. If it holds at this level for a couple of weeks then I expect to see a bounce to 5775.I had said earlier in my vix analysis we are in 2022 mode. Market could see a relief rally only to realise that there are still many unknowns. The impact on labour market due to immigration policies, retaliation of other countries and negotiation results thereof, impact on consumer sentiments and extent of inflations due to tariff. Weakening of US dollar will only add to inflation pressure. Trump has only accelerated BRICS agenda of moving away from USD Citadel,Millennium and many other hedge fund are having liquidity problems and FED is been asked to setup a bailout fund for these crooks. They are the highest leveraged entities. A weaker market will precipitate another financial crisis. So far the financial sector hasn't been devalued liketh tech and semi's. I think their turn will come once the market have finished dealing with tech valuations. Once market gets this, it will see a sharp selloff, which is better than slow grind down over months as far as I am concerned When trump says, he doesn't care about the stock market, I think he knows it is overvalued, just like Warren Buffet did last year and sold off most his positions and now sitting on largest cash in history, waiting for it to come to his level of expectation which to to my mind cant be just 10% bat rather like 30% write off in the en, to entice savvy investors like Buffet and Michael Burry to re-enter and clean out the garbage investors like the hedge funds
SPREADEX:SPX
by krisoz
new indicator using options data ++ some project i'm working on. # Analysis of the S&P 500 Trading Dashboard Data I'll explain the key data elements used in this technical analysis dashboard and how they contribute to the trading conclusions. ## Key Price Levels and Their Significance The dashboard identifies several critical price levels for the S&P 500: - **Max Pain ($5,785)**: This represents the price level where options writers would experience the least financial pain (i.e., where the fewest options contracts would be in-the-money). The distance from the current price ($5,557.41) to max pain suggests significant upside resistance. - **Resistance Levels ($5,700 and $5,650)**: These represent areas where selling pressure is expected to increase. The $5,700 level is backed by data showing 13,877 call option contracts at this strike, creating a "wall" of resistance. - **Short Entry Zone ($5,595)**: This level was previously support that has been broken, making it a high-probability entry zone for short positions following the principle that broken support becomes resistance. - **Battle Zone ($5,550)**: An area with heavy options activity on both sides (puts and calls), indicating potential price volatility and uncertainty. - **Critical Support ($5,500)**: A psychologically important round number that also represents a significant technical level. - **Target Levels ($5,450 and $5,400)**: Projected price targets for short positions based on previous support levels and technical measurements. ## Options Market Data Two key options metrics are used to inform the analysis: 1. **Put/Call Ratio (1.80)**: This is significantly elevated above the typical range of 0.7-1.2, indicating: - Unusually bearish sentiment - Hedging activity by institutional investors - Potential for a contrarian bounce if it exceeds 2.0 The high ratio suggests market participants are purchasing put options for downside protection at an elevated rate compared to call options, confirming bearish positioning. 2. **Gamma Exposure (-$17.37 Billion)**: This negative value indicates: - Market makers are net short gamma - They must sell more futures as prices fall to maintain delta hedges - This creates a self-reinforcing downward spiral effect Gamma exposure represents the rate of change in delta (directional exposure) for options market makers. The large negative value suggests that downward price movement will accelerate as market makers must sell more futures to remain hedged, creating a "cascade effect" amplifying price movement. ## Technical Indicators and Their Interpretation The dashboard incorporates several technical analysis components: ### Price Action & Moving Averages The analysis indicates price is trading below all major moving averages (20/50/100/200 EMAs), a classic sign of bearish momentum across timeframes. When price trades below all these moving averages in sequence, it creates what traders call "bearish alignment," a strong confirmation of downtrend. ### Momentum Indicators - **RSI (Below 30)**: Indicates oversold conditions but in a strong downtrend, oversold conditions can persist. The analysis correctly warns against fighting the trend despite the oversold reading. - **MACD (Below signal line)**: Confirms negative momentum is in place, suggesting continued downward pressure. - **ACWF (Negative)**: A specialized momentum indicator showing continued bearish pressure. ### Volume Analysis - **On-Balance Volume (Declining)**: Indicates more volume on down days than up days, suggesting distribution (selling pressure). - **Volume on Down Bars (Increasing)**: Higher volume on declining price moves is a classic sign of seller control and distribution. ### Chart Patterns - **Head & Shoulders Pattern (Completed)**: A reversal pattern that typically projects further downside after completion. - **Elliott Wave Count (Wave 3)**: Wave 3 is typically the strongest and longest wave in Elliott Wave theory, suggesting significant continuation of the downtrend. ## Volatility Assessment The ATR (Average True Range) values of 9.18-98.75 indicate elevated and increasing volatility, which informs the risk management recommendations: - Reduce position size - Use wider stop losses - Expect larger price swings This is prudent risk management in high-volatility environments, as normal position sizing could lead to premature stopouts due to wider price swings. ## Trading Recommendation Logic The primary strategy (65% probability) of continued downside is based on the confluence of: 1. Bearish technical indicators across multiple timeframes 2. Negative gamma exposure creating a self-reinforcing downward spiral 3. Broken support levels and completed bearish chart patterns 4. Wave 3 Elliott Wave structure which typically has the strongest momentum The strategy recommends: - Entry at $5,590-5,600 (former support, now resistance) - Stop loss above $5,625 (limiting risk to approximately 30 points) - Targets at key support levels: $5,500, $5,450, and $5,400 - Reduced position size due to high volatility The alternative strategy (35% probability) acknowledges the potential for a reversal at the $5,500 psychological support level, but only with confirmation signals like volume decline and stabilization patterns. ## Educational Elements The dashboard incorporates several educational elements: 1. **Elliott Wave Theory**: The identification of Wave 3 of a 5-wave downtrend sequence suggests the current move is likely the strongest part of the larger bearish structure. 2. **Options Market Mechanics**: Explanation of how negative gamma exposure creates a self-reinforcing price action effect as market makers hedge their positions. 3. **Technical Analysis Patterns**: Clear labeling of patterns like the Head & Shoulders and broken uptrend line, along with their implications. 4. **Risk Management**: Specific recommendations for position sizing and stop placement in a high-volatility environment. This analysis combines price action, options market data, technical indicators, volume analysis, and chart patterns to create a comprehensive trading approach with specific entry, exit, and risk management parameters.
EIGHTCAP:SPX500
by user2839409