It That was Just Wave C - Big Puke ComingI had a fair crack at being bullish and it was profitable for a while but last attempt ran my entry levels. We're back to retesting them now but I've ditched all my longs other than super lotto calls.
If might turn out that big W move was just an ABC. That 6% down day was wave 1. The failed new high was wave 2.
If those things are true, I think you're going to see limit down days.
I don't throw that term about loosely. If we're heading into wave 3, at some point limit down days are likely.
US500FU trade ideas
S&P 500 on the Verge of a Death Cross!The S&P 500 (SPX) could soon have a cross of the 50 – day Simple Moving Average (SMA) below the 200 – day SMA. This is called a Death Cross and is usually the prelude to more decline.
In this case after the crossing the SPX could drop to 4,500 in a few trading days.
SPX500USD (S&P 500) Technical A`nalysisThe S&P 500 (SPX500USD) is currently approaching the 5,500.0 resistance zone after a strong bullish recovery.
📈 Bullish Scenario:
If price successfully breaks and retests 5,500.0, continuation towards the 5,708.6 resistance zone may follow.
A further break could push the market up to 5,795.6.
📉 Bearish Scenario:
If SPX500USD fails to break and sustain above 5,500.0, a rejection could send price down towards 5,196.8 support.
A deeper breakdown below 5,196.8 could extend losses towards 4,859.8.
⚠️ Risk Disclaimer:
This is not financial advice or a trading signal. Always confirm market conditions using your own strategy before making any decisions.
Bullish Flag In The SPX/USDWhat's going on Traders? Making money I hope! What if I told you you could make some more $
Yepper! That's right! There is another chance at making some more cash if the flag pattern in SPX plays out.
Measured move; TP-1 5501.6 area.
TP-2 5794 area.
Believe it or not but we likely going higher.
Best Of Luck In All Your Trades.
CHEERS! $$$
Bullish bounce off pullback support?S&P500 is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 5,326.10
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 5,211.08
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 5,517.82
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
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US500 (S&P): Trend in daily time frameThe color levels are very accurate levels of support and resistance in different time frames, and we have to wait for their reaction in these areas.
So, Please pay special attention to the very accurate trend, colored levels, and you must know that SETUP is very sensitive.
Be careful
BEST
MT
SPY, More pain to come? SPY / 1D
Hello Traders, welcome back to another market breakdown.
SPY is showing strong bearish momentum, breaking below resistance. However, the price is in the oversold zone for now. Hence, instead of jumping in at current levels, I recommend waiting for a pullback into the middle of the range zone for a more strategic entry.
If the pullback holds and sell mode confirms, the third leg lower could target new lows.
Stay disciplined, wait for the market to come to you, and trade with confidence!
Trade safely,
Trader Leo.
Market Outlook of S&P 500 This is a S&P 500 Weekly Chart and it’s on a perfect uptrend since the covid bottom, and on a shorter time frame, it has also broken the time frame. It has also touch the 2022 support which is around 4800.
I expect it to retest the recent bottom and maybe even a lower low, I think it can make a fib extension and retest 4250-4300.
$SPX - APRIL 16 2025 contract
Today’s Trading Range has Downward pressure from the top - you can see it in the way the moving averages come down and their angle.
The implied move is 5320-5475 today (1.35%)
5295-5500 tomorrow (1.88%)
And 30 day average volatility 5205-5590. (3.53%)
That spreads am I looking to today? 5320/5296 Bull put spreads feel too close for me… But I’m still keeping them on my radar. That is 25 dollars wide.
If we Trade up 5475/5500 That’s a real possibility because of the 1hr 200MA coming down like that. (That is also a 25$ wide spread today.)
But more likely - and especially because we have Jerome powell today at 1:30 ET, I will be looking 5230/5205 bull put spreads & 5565/5590 above.
Big Bear gap at the top as well.
Let’s see how it goes today.
S&P500 INDEX (#US500): Intraday Bullish ConfirmationAfter a breakout of a key horizontal resistance,
📈US50P retested this level and then formed an ascending triangle pattern on a 4-hour time frame.
A bullish breach of the triangle's neckline is a key confirmation of buyer strength and suggests potential for a price increase to at least 5,500.
Bullish??? That was all very sudden, is it over now?The market correction really seamed to be an over reaction. I am hopeful that the worst is behind us, at least for the meantime.
maybe this will be closer to 2018 correction and we just keep grinding higher for the rest of the year. I suppose anything is possible.
-Everyone got way to bearish to quick - Spidey senses going off!
-we never copy and paste last cycle to the next, but people have such a recency bias, sometimes its all they can see ( I may know from experience)
- hopefully bullish
Planning to short a little higher. I made a full pivot on my bear position while we were 6% down on the day into the end of last week, switching to long positioning at 5150 and adding a couple times once the first resis levels broke, now I'm starting to get ready to try to position short again into a move a little higher (5550 or so).
My bias at this point is fairly neutral. As a trader, it really doesn't matter which way the market goes. One could equally make the polarised case for us to trend up 1000 points or down 1000 points. Many people think I want to be a bear for the sake of being a bear, but those 1000 points pay the exact same. I'd opt for the one with no systemic risk.
After all, the money I make I keep in banks and brokerages. Nicer to know they'll be okay.
But markets are not a place for preference. Heading into 5550 is where we have another window of risk for the bear setup.
We took a large position (relative to typical exposure) betting 4% long on SPX at 5150 with 100 points stop. Banked on this for 300 points. With the added positions this was a bit over 15%. Basically, we made as much as a non leveraged long would make trading from the absolute low to a retest of the high.
Still currently have some light exposure betting on 5550 hitting.
If and when we get there, we'll cycle some of our long profits back to shorts. Even inside of a bull market case I could make a reasonable case for 5000 retesting.
And if we're actually inside a bear market, then we've just been through the eye of the storm.
Over the last few days I've not done much. Caught up on work outside the market (or related to work I do based on the market that isn't trading). Caught up on sleep (because I slept very rarely through March / early April).
Whatever way it goes, I think we're going to be back to being super active some time in the next few days.
For now, locking in the profits. Through this year the market has made over 50% worth of swings when you add them all up. We caught a lot of them. Covering multiple years of the standard expected gains for the style and low risk setting used. My priority is keeping that.
But I can see myself repositioning as a bear in the coming days.
I'm undecided of how deep a bear move I'd be targeting. But I do strongly suspect I'll be a short 5550 if it trades.
SPX Elliott Wave Count AnalysisJust dropping a multi-timeframe breakdown of my current EW thesis for SPX, starting from the macro and drilling down to now.
Big Picture (3M View):
We’re still grinding through Grand Super Cycle Wave 3 (GSCW3) that I have starting in the 1932 low till now.
Scoped in look at Super Cycle W4(SCW4)
Super Cycle Wave 4 (SCW4) wrapped up around the ‘08-‘09 housing crash lows. Since then, we’ve been in SCW5, and based on current structure, I believe we’re still early or mid-stage, not near the end.
Zoom-In: SCW5 to Present (Cycle Degree Breakdown):
From the 2009 lows, price action carved out a textbook impulsive structure into what I’m labeling as Cycle Wave 1 (CW1), which likely topped out ~Dec 2024.
The correction that followed has the characteristics of an Expanded Flat:
A-B-C structure where Wave C just completed around April 7th.
This structure, in my view, forms Wave W of a potential WXY complex for CW2.
Now we’re either in:
The early stages of Wave X, targeting the 0.618 retracement zone of W (marked on the chart),
Or, X has already completed in a shorter move.
Alt (Low-Probability) Scenario:
There’s a slim case that the ABC (now W) correction was all of CW2 — given how it wicked into a deep, low-probability Fib zone (gray box).
If we get a clear impulsive move above that 0.618 area, I’ll pay closer attention to this alt — but for now, I’m leaning toward more downside after this X-wave finishes (if it hasn't already).
EW interpretations evolve, but this is my current working roadmap
$SPX - Recap of April 14 2025So if you just read SPY - this is just a copy and paste because of course we had almost identical price action here. Today, Monday April 14th we opened with a gap UP to the 30min 200MA and we also gapped right to the top of the bear gap (always considered resistance and strengthened by the downward momentum of the 30min 200.
We did see resistance with those combined bearish levels and we brought is back down to the middle, closed the gap from open and took it back to the 30min 200MA and got pushed back at close.
This chart setup was bearish today - even though we closed green - how? The 30in 200MA pointing down. The bear gap under that. And the 35EMA trading Under the 30min 200MA.
It was an easy trading day and just looking at the momentum you could feel that price was going to stay in the center of the implied move. At least I mentioned that in last night’s video.
Excellent day. How did you guys do??