S&P500 Bullish breakout supported at 6207Trump’s $3.4 Trillion Tax Plan
Favors wealthy investors: Tax burden shifts based on how you earn, not how much.
Winners: Business owners, investors, high-income earners.
Losers: Immigrants, elite universities.
Trade Tensions
EU Tariffs: Brussels targets $72B in US goods (e.g., Boeing, cars, bourbon) in response to Trump’s tariff threats.
Impact: Risk to transatlantic trade; US open to talks.
US-China Tech Relations
Nvidia: Resumes H20 AI chip sales to China after US approval—boosted chip stocks.
Trump: To announce $70B in AI & energy investments today in Pennsylvania.
Trend: Signs of easing tensions between US and China.
Earnings Focus: Big US Banks
Q2 results (JPM, Citi, WFC, BNY Mellon, BlackRock) will highlight:
Net interest income: How rate levels affect profits
Loan growth & credit quality: Signs of lending strength or weakness
Capital markets activity: Trading & investment banking trends
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 6335
Resistance Level 2: 6380
Resistance Level 3: 6420
Support Level 1: 6207
Support Level 2: 6160
Support Level 3: 6115
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
US500FU trade ideas
S&P 500 consolidating at all-time highsOf late, we have seen price action on the S&P 500 consolidate around all-time highs of 6,290 and is on track to form a small ascending triangle. The nearest support to note resides at the 1W level of 6,121, closely shadowed by a 1M support from 6,040.
Based on the current technical picture, this clearly remains a buyers’ market.
- FP Markets Research Team
SPX500 Update: Monster Trigger Ready to Launch!Welcome back, traders, it’s Skeptic from Skeptic Lab! 😎 With news of the unemployment rate rising, stock and crypto markets have been surging hard, and right now, we’ve got a killer trigger on SPX500 you don’t want to miss. Its breakout could spark the next major bullish leg. Let’s dive into the Daily and 4-hour timeframes to unpack this setup. here’s the play:
✔️ Daily Timeframe:
After a strong rally, SPX500 hit an all-time high (ATH) at 5,249.14 before entering a deep correction. Here’s what many traders miss: support/resistance levels aren’t static—they shift over time. The resistance that was at 6,146.89 has now climbed to 6,290. Breaking 6,290 signals the start of a major bullish trend after 146 days of correction. This is our primary long trigger.
📊 4-Hour Timeframe (Futures Triggers):
Long Trigger: After a solid uptrend with strong momentum, we entered a time-based correction within a box pattern. Breaking the box ceiling at 6,290 is the long trigger, aligning with the Daily breakout.
Short Trigger: Breaking the box floor would trigger a short, but this goes against the trend, so stop-loss risk is higher, and your win rate could take a hit—stay cautious.
📉 Key Insight: The 6,290 breakout is the big move to watch, fueled by market momentum from the unemployment news. Shorts are riskier due to the bullish trend, so prioritize longs with volume confirmation.
🔔 Confirmation: For longs, confirm the 6,290 break with RSI entering overbought.Risk management is critical—cap risk at 1%–2% per trade to survive the market’s swings.
🔼 I’ll update if the structure shifts! Thanks for vibing with this analysis! <3
💬 Let’s Talk!
Which SPX500 trigger are you locked on? Hit the comments, and let’s crush it together! 😊 If this update lit your fire, smash that boost—it fuels my mission! ✌️
Equity Markets Ahead of the US Inflation ReportEquity Markets Ahead of the US Inflation Report
Today at 15:30 GMT+3, the US inflation report (Consumer Price Index, or CPI) is scheduled for release. According to ForexFactory, analysts expect the inflation rate to rise from 2.4% to 2.6%.
The actual figures will provide market participants with grounds to debate not only the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut, but also the evolving tensions between Donald Trump and Jerome Powell.
Should the report deliver any surprises, it will almost certainly trigger heightened volatility across the equity markets. For now, however, investors are seemingly optimistic about the upcoming fundamental data — especially given the commencement of Q2 earnings season, which lends additional weight to today’s macroeconomic indicators.
Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Chart
The S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) shows the index fluctuating within a range defined by support at 6,222 and resistance at 6,290.
The upward impulses (as indicated by arrows) suggest that:
→ current market optimism, combined with the CPI release, may lead to a bullish breakout above resistance and the establishment of a new all-time high;
→ in a broader context, such a breakout could be interpreted as a continuation of the rally that began in April, following a period of consolidation between the aforementioned levels.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
SPX500 Outlook – CPI Data in Focus, Key Pivot at 6282SPX500 – Market Outlook
U.S. futures are climbing as Nvidia plans to resume chip sales to China, fueling positive momentum across tech and growth sectors.
However, investor caution remains ahead of key events:
Major banks ( NYSE:JPM , NYSE:WFC Wells Fargo, NYSE:C Citigroup) will report earnings, offering insights into the financial sector.
All eyes are on the June CPI report, expected at 2.6%. A higher reading could reinforce bearish pressure, while a softer print would support continued bullish momentum.
Technical Outlook:
SPX500 has bounced from the demand zone and is now trading above the pivot at 6282, which keeps the bullish trend in play.
As long as the price holds above this level, we expect continuation toward 6341, and if broken, extended upside toward 6394.
To shift bearish, price must break and close below 6223, which would open the path toward 6142.
Pivot: 6282
Resistance: 6341 – 6394
Support: 6225 – 6191 – 6142
Event Watch : CPI data release today – anything above 2.6% may trigger downside; below 2.6% could support further upside.
Previous idea:
Major LowI'm buying puts expiring on October 31st, All Hallow's Eve.
I'll give price room to keep melting up to 666 at the farthest, that is my stop level. If we breach that price, then just know that tech is unstoppable and Artificial Intelligence is the Mark of the Beast.
If the market doesn't drop here, then the sky is the limit.
US500 evening analysisMy primary count of bullish price action since 7 April 2025 low sees regular flat (regular flat A, zigzag B, impulse C), impulse C with ending diagonal 5 of (5).
Median line (red line) of pitchfork was never tagged, implies price action eventually returning to origin (5098.6).
Ending diagonal invalid above 6307.2, bears with high reward, low risk opportunity.
SPX 6300 Highs to 6200 Lows - Watch Key LevelsThis week earnings season kicks off
-Notables include JPM, GS, BAC, WFC, NFLX, KMI, PEP and others
US Inflation (CPI and PPI) this week
-forecasts are showing HIGHER inflation
-consumers care, but markets may not
6300-6350 key resistance area for SPX
6200 key support area for SPX
If we break the 6200 floor, there's room to fall to 6000-5700 to find stronger support
I discuss the 50 day moving averarages on the S&P and Nasdaq as levels to watch
For the remainder of the month...
7/18 July Monthly Expiration
7/30 US FOMC (with Press Conference)
8/1 US Non-Farm
8/1 US Tariff Deadline (per Trump)
Markets will have to really love a slew of good earnings and good news to see more highs and melt-ups through this typically bumpy season (Aug-Sep)
Thanks for watching!!!
SPX - Next Target is 7000- SPX is currently trading around 6200 after breakout previous all time high.
- Price has formed a nice broadening wedge pattern and currently heading towards the next resistance line.
- We can expect a slight correction upt o 6100, and reversal towards 7000.
- I'm expecting SPX to hit 7000 target by Q1 of 2026.
Trade Opportunity
Entry: 6200
TP1: 6400
TP2: 6600
TP3: 6800
TP4: 7000
SL at: 6057
Stay tuned frequent updates
Cheers
GreenCrypto
S&P 500: Defying Tariff Headwinds, Breaking RecordsThe S&P 500 has staged a remarkable rally in 2025, shattering all-time highs and capturing global attention. This surge has unfolded despite the negative economic overhang of renewed tariff threats and ongoing trade tensions, raising critical questions for investors: How did the market overcome such headwinds, and what lies ahead for both the short and long term?
The Rally Against the Odds
Tariff Turbulence: Earlier this year, President Trump announced sweeping new tariffs, sparking fears of supply chain disruptions and higher costs for American companies. Historically, such moves have triggered volatility and corrections.
Market Resilience: Despite these concerns, the S&P 500 not only recovered losses from the spring but surged to new record highs, with the index climbing over 23% since April’s lows. Major tech companies, especially those leading in AI and innovation, have been at the forefront of this advance.
Investor Sentiment: The rally has been fueled by optimism around potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, robust corporate earnings, and expectations of long-term economic growth—even as the immediate impact of tariffs remains uncertain.
Short-Term Correction: A Healthy Pause?
While the long-term outlook remains bullish, several indicators suggest the market may be due for a short-term correction:
Narrow Market Breadth: The current rally has been driven by a handful of mega-cap stocks, leaving the median S&P 500 stock well below its own 52-week high. Historically, such narrow leadership often precedes periods of consolidation or pullbacks.
Valuation Concerns: Stock valuations are at elevated levels, and some analysts warn that earnings growth could slow as companies adapt to higher input costs and shifting trade policies.
Correction Forecasts: Some strategists predict the S&P 500 could correct to around 5,250 by the third quarter of 2025, citing factors like slowing consumer spending and persistent policy uncertainty.
Long-Term Outlook: Higher Highs Ahead
Despite the potential for near-term volatility, the long-term trajectory for the S&P 500 remains positive:
Fed Policy Tailwinds: Anticipated rate cuts and lower bond yields are expected to provide further support for equities, encouraging risk-taking and higher valuations.
Corporate Adaptation: Companies are actively offsetting tariff impacts through cost savings, supply chain adjustments, and strategic pricing.
Growth Sectors: Innovation in technology, productivity gains, and deregulation are setting the stage for sustained profit growth, especially in sectors like AI, robotics, and defense.
Key Takeaways for Investors
Stay Disciplined: While a short-term correction is possible, history shows that markets often rebound strongly after periods of volatility.
Diversify Exposure: With market gains concentrated in a few names, diversification and active stock selection are more important than ever.
Focus on Fundamentals: Long-term investors should look beyond headlines and focus on companies with resilient earnings and adaptive business models.
The S&P 500’s ability to break records in the face of tariff headwinds is a testament to the underlying strength and adaptability of the U.S. economy. While short-term bumps are likely, the path ahead still points toward new highs for those with patience and perspective.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
#spx500 #stockmarket #analysis #economy #us #nasdaq #fed #bonds #rates #trading
S&P500 Slips Ahead of CPI & Earnings SeasonEquities began the week under pressure, with the S&P 500 dropping 0.5%, slipping below the 6,230-resistance area. Although the Fed minutes released last week indicate that most members are open to cutting rates this year, inflation data and second-quarter earnings could change that trajectory.
Upcoming Events to Watch:
• CPI Release (Tuesday 14:30 SAST): A cooler-than-expected print would support a breakout in risk assets. A hot reading could shift expectations toward policy tightening, weighing on equities.
• Q2 Earnings Season: Major banks including JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup will report this week. Strong earnings may cushion the market, while any weakness could exacerbate volatility.
S&P500 Technical View:
• Immediate Resistance: 6,230
• Potential Upside: A cooler CPI could see the index rally toward 6,290.
• Support Levels: Should inflation surprise to the upside, the index may slide to 6,190, or even 6,150 in extended selling.
SPX500 Formed false breakout Bearish Bias 6,205 SP500 Short-Term Bearish Bias
The SPX500 remains under pressure as it trades below the key resistance level of 6260. Price action suggests a potential rejection from this resistance, signalling a continuation of downside momentum.
This bearish sentiment is further fuelled by recent tariff escalations by President Trump, which are weighing heavily on investor sentiment across global indices.
You can see more details in the chart Ps Support with like and comments for more analysis Thanks for supporting.
US 500 – A New Record Peak or Reversal in the Week AheadSo far in July, the US 500 has recorded multiple all-time highs on its way to an eventual peak of 6294 on Thursday (July 10th), from which it finally succumbed to some profit taking into the weekend, leading to a small Friday sell off to close at 6255 (-0.4%).
Along the way traders have ignored mixed US economic data, and more importantly they have, for the most part, shrugged off President Trump’s increasingly aggressive approach to tariffs, choosing instead to focus on economic resilience, renewed AI optimism and an improving outlook for the Q2 corporate earnings season that kicks fully into gear in the coming days.
In terms of tariffs, the fact that there is now a new August 1st deadline to concentrate on may be taking away some of the immediate urgency for the announcement of trade deals, although these issues still remain important and on-going, highlighted by President Trump's weekend social media announcement of 30% tariffs on the EU and Mexico, if a better deal cant be reached in the next 3 weeks.
With regard to corporate earnings, the major US banks like JP Morgan (Tuesday before the open) and Bank of America (Wednesday before the open) report this week. Both company’s share prices have seen strong gains since the April lows, so traders will be eagerly awaiting their actual numbers. They will also be keen to hear the thoughts of the bank CEOs on future earnings, bad debt provisions and the potential impact of Trump’s tariffs on the US economy moving forward. Only last week, Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan, warned market complacency towards potential tariff risks.
In terms of scheduled economic data. Tuesday’s US CPI (1330 BST) and Wednesday’s PPI release (1330 BST) stand out. Traders are sensitive to US inflation updates and have been watching over the last several months for signs that tariffs are pushing up prices. So far this hasn’t been the case but these new releases may tell a different story.
All of these issues could impact risk sentiment and the direction of the US 500 index in the next 5 trading days. Certainly, the early open has been impacted by President Trump's weekend tariff announcement, with the US 500 currently down 0.46% at 6227 (0800 BST).
The technical outlook could also be an important factor in determining price moves.
Technical Update: Assessing the Move to A New Record High
Last week appears to have seen a slowing in the speed of the recent price strength, but a new all-time high was still posted at 6294 on Thursday. It could be argued that this activity maintains what is still a more constructive pattern of higher price highs and higher price lows that have materialised since the April 7th downside extreme of 4799.
However, there is no guarantee this price activity will continue to see new all-time highs posted, so we need to be aware of potential support and resistance levels that may influence price activity.
Possible Support Levels:
If last week’s possible slowing in upside price momentum develops into a new phase of price weakness, a support level that traders might now be watching could be 6148.
This 6148 level is equal to both the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of June 23rd to July 10th strength and the current level of the rising Bollinger mid-average. Closes below 6148 might suggest a more extended phase of weakness back to 6058, the lower 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, possibly further if this in turn gives way.
Possible Resistance Levels:
Having been capped by the 6294 all-time high last week, sellers may continue to be found at this level, so this might prove to be the first potential resistance if fresh attempts at price strength over the coming week develop.
Closing defence of 6294 may need to be watched if challenged, as successful breaks above this level might suggest an extension of the uptrend pattern currently evident in price activity. Such closing breaks higher may well suggest price strength towards 6418, the 200% Fibonacci extension level of the recent price decline.
The material provided here has not been prepared accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients.
Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
SPX : How to play this DPrice has now reached our target as anticipated. The question is, when do we SELL?
Anyway, for those who follow the D, I am sure it has saved you guys a lot of trouble. At least you know where/when to start SELLING. Many others who started selling EARLy had all lost their money.
As we can see, there are 3 D's. Price can still move UP to 6,800. Bear that in mind. Or has already reached the max at 6,291!!!
Price is at where they are, there are 2 choices:
a) SELL now and SL @ 6,300
b) SELL when price touched the lower D @ 6,140 with SL @ 6,291
Whichever way, the R/R is still FANTASTIC.
It is true that MARKET MAKER might still take advantage and try to screw short sellers. But even they would find it hard at the D. For even they need to respect it a bit.
If you know your D, you trade safer.
Good luck.
$SPXSP:SPX Update:
Rumors of Powell possibly resigning as Fed Chair have created uncertainty among buyers.
But if inflation stays low even with tariffs we might see longer holds.
If Powell does step down, markets could actually rally on hopes of upcoming rate cuts.
📉📈
Now we wait for the inflation report…
SPX: earnings sentiment aheadPrevious week was another optimistic week on financial markets. Regarding the approaching deadline for a delay in the application of trade tariffs set by the US Administration, which came due on July 9th, the market did not show much of a concern. The green trend line of the S&P 500 continued during the week, where the index managed to reach another new all time highest level on Thursday, at 6.290. During the previous week there has not been any currently important US macro data posted, in which sense, the market sentiment remained optimistic. However, Friday's news regarding trade tariffs spoiled a bit of an up-trend, so the index ended the week, just a bit lower from its ATH level, at 6.259.
Weekly tariffs news include a 35% imposed tariffs on imports from Canada, and 50% on goods imported from Brazil in the U.S. There are also some comments on a potential increased universal 10% tariff on the majority of other nations, noting 15% and 20%, as well as a 50% tariff on copper. Analysts are noting that the market is already adjusted to the comments regarding trade tariffs, in which sense, there are no more strong market reactions on any incoming news.
The week ahead brings some important US macro data, as well as gearing up for the earnings season, starting with major banks like JPMorgan. The June inflation data as well as PPI will be posted in the week ahead, closing with University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. This data might bring back some volatility to the S&P 500, however, the general investors sentiment remains positive at this moment.
SPX500USD | Retesting All-Time HighsThe index has extended its bullish rally, printing a new local high at 6,286.5 before showing signs of slight hesitation with consecutive small-bodied candles.
Support at: 6,134.5 / 6,026.0 / 5,926.2 🔽
Resistance at: 6,286.5 🔼
🔎 Bias:
🔼 Bullish: Sustains above 6,134.5 and breaks 6,286.5 for new highs.
🔽 Bearish: Break below 6,134.5 could trigger a retracement toward 6,026.0.
📛 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
Is SP500 / US M2 Money Supply telling us a story?Historically this ratio has inflected from key levels. Last week the upper boundary of what 8 would call a normal range has acted as support. If history rhymes to dot com bubble, this AI bubble can bounce from these levels and see an increase until Q4 2026, then a sharp fall will follow. To the lower boundary of that normal range.