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US 500 - Rolling Future (Per 1.0)US 500 - Rolling Future (Per 1.0)US 500 - Rolling Future (Per 1.0)

US 500 - Rolling Future (Per 1.0)

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US500FU trade ideas

S&P 500 Weekly PotentialVolatility, expressed through standard deviation, quantifies market elasticity and presents a level of probability and precision that humbles us all. This week with SP:SPX bi-weekly trends have risen to just below our monthly values and are currently expansive over the markets IV prediction. Right now as I see it, HV10 is going resonate alongside our monthly values showing continued strength over IV. We could full regression to quarterly means as we move our of corrective territory then see consolidation to cool the markets down. BOOST the post, drop a follow and comment, BUT don't circle back at the end of the week to revisit and observe how our trending markets preformed!
SP:SPX
by splitmyIVandmelt
Up again for SPX500USDHi traders, Last week SPX500USD retested the 4H FVG once more and made a (corrective) move down into the Daily BPR. This was exactly the move I've predicted and I hope you took some value from it. Now price rejected from the Daily BPR so next week we could see this pair go up again to the higher Daily FVG. Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for a bullish change in orderflow and a small correction down on a lower timeframe to trade longs. If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with Wave analysis, then please make sure to follow me. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis. Don't be emotional, just trade your plan! Eduwave
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by EduwaveTrading
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 23, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: The S&P 500 Index demonstrated a consistent downward trend during this week's trading session, reaching a significant target at the Mean Support level 5828. The index is currently trending lower, targeting the Inner Index Dip at 5730, with additional marks identified at the Mean Support levels of 5660 and 5600. Conversely, the index has the potential to rebound from its present position, advancing toward the Mean Resistance level of 5860 and retesting the previously completed Outer Index Rally at 5955.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
Is Trump Triggering a Mini Market Crack to Drive Capital into Tr📉 Is Trump Triggering a Mini Market Crack to Drive Capital into Treasuries? Recent remarks by former President Donald Trump — including threats of 50% tariffs on EU goods and pressure on Apple to manufacture domestically — have sparked sharp red moves across the U.S. markets. Which leads to a serious question: 👉 Could this be a deliberate strategy to induce fear in the stock market and push both institutional and retail money toward U.S. Treasury bonds? In a context where the U.S. government needs to issue and absorb massive debt, and where yields are rising to attract buyers, a sell-off in equities might: 💰 Boost demand for Treasuries 🔥 Justify aggressive fiscal or monetary actions 🎯 Reposition political actors as “economic saviors” I’m not making claims — just thinking out loud... Are we witnessing a calculated move to reroute capital from equities into U.S. debt, using fear as the vehicle? What do you think — coincidence… or strategy?
VANTAGE:SP500
by perezliz37
SPY ready to continue its up-trend?!?Now that price has pulled back, we’ve seen a reaction from the daily 20 EMA, forming what resembles a hammer candlestick. This could signal that the uptrend may be ready to resume. That said, Monday will be key. If the market continues to show strength, it may confirm a continuation to the upside. But if price drops instead, we could be in for a deeper pullback. ⚠️ Remember: just because we’re in an uptrend doesn’t mean the market can’t reverse. The market is unpredictable, and that’s why reacting to price behavior at each point of interest (POI) is so important. Stay flexible, manage your risk, and trade what the market shows you, not what you expect.
ICMARKETS:US500Long
by GonzooTrading
Bear Case Requires Downtrend Action. Strong Bull Bias Otherwise.With the recent breaks the odds are strongly towards 5500 hitting and if that breaks the odds are greatly for far lower hitting but I want to take some time to make sure I am clear on the binary nature of where we are. The market is in a "Might go up, might go down" spot. Probably won't go sideways for long. I think we're probably going to see strong trends coming out of whatever decision is made here. First thing I want to really drill in for my bear friends is a sell off from the 86 means nothing at all. Most of the time this is a bear trap. We have broken the first level it may have bottomed so the bias is strongly towards the next ones hitting but having a strong bear bias at this point in historic SPX setup would have led you into a lot of trouble most of the time. If you fade trends the thing you always have to be worrying about is you've got this "pretty much" right but you're actually one swing too early. Because when that happens, the last swing is always exceptionally strong. Fading trends is hard because if you're wrong it trends against you and if you're 95% right it spikes against you in the most ruthless of ways. What makes this all the worse is that comes off a correction in the trend so you end up with a bigger zone in which you're wrong. For example if we began to rally here there's now about 4% extra you could be wrong while saying we're still inside the last high. Any time you're fading a trend and it's going well you should think of this risk. You have to map in the risk of a 161 head fake. These happen a lot. A common thing in blow offs. If you're right about the reversal after this move the short will be easy - but it's not easy to take if you're short bias into it. Given the broader context of everything, I don't think I favour the 1.61 head-fake being the outcome if we rally. If we rally again then we're seeing prolonged big chart trending action above the macro 4.23 and I've only ever seen trends getting stronger when they can break a 4.23. If the 1.61 breaks we can end up at the 4.23 - which would be a monster move. The instance of a 4.23 hitting from a 50% crash are extremely rare. Every instance of it there has been in indices has led to a massive trend decision. All instances of bubbles tend to have clear changes in their momentum when breaking 4.23 fibs. SPX is already above the 4.23 fib. The bear thesis has it this is a head-fake of that. It needs to be evidenced by a strong rejection of the head-fake. Earlier I mentioned the tendency of 1.61 head-fakes. This was the most recurring big obvious topping signal I found when looking at crashes. We'd usually dummy drop and then make a 1.61 spike out. This is the rule I use to tell a pending false breakout from a breakout. If it breaks the 1.61, I expect it will get at least very close to the 2.20. If it can not break the 1.61, then there's a strong chance it may be topping. Our current top is on the 1.61 hit and we're now into a retest of that. The 1.61 sell off is interesting because if it's a 4.23 reversal we have to be in a head fake above it and if it's a head fake we are looking for a 1.61 spike. These things make the speculative bets into the retest compelling and the pragmatic "What if" planning for a break worth covering. A 1.61 reversal would be expected to be a nasty event. A 1.61 reversal would take out the last low (by definition, it's just a bit pullback otherwise) and it would do this in a strong consistent selling manner. Which would be crash like on this timeframe. But the 1.61 reaction is not in any way prescriptive of a crash at this point. A common pattern is a big pullback from the 1.61 and then when it has been broken again it goes into a strong rally to the following fibs. This can top on a few of the fibs but full extensions in strong trends spike out 4.23. Inside the context of the overall building of the trend what is happening now would be insignificant overall. Even if dropping all the way to 5500. A full expansion of this would agree with the other fibs we had around the 10,000 level. Furthermore, a doubling period off the breakout of a 4.23 I'd consider to be a highly probable outcome. If the bear thesis is wrong here it can be wrong in a way that is irrecoverable. A persist bear will get you slaughtered. The case for a potential bear move here is extremely strong but that does also tend to mean the failure of it would be all the more spectacular. It makes a lot of sense to bet in these zones because there's a high chance you can at least break even on short term reactions and can perhaps make a lot in bigger reversals. It's pragmatic to be aware of what the larger risks of a reversal would be and how the swings in that would likely form. You have to think about these things ahead of time because otherwise it all happens too fast to really have time to think. Impulse decisions are usually bad. I have a high degree of confidence in the fibs being able to map out the important levels. My ability to know what that means ... not so much. I may or may not get it right. What is highly likely to be right based on 100 yrs of swings in SPX is the next major swing will relate to a previous swing in such a way that fib levels make it possible to get a good idea of the major highs/lows of the move. All the ways we can do that from here imply massive moves. If it's not 50% off the high it's 100% from the 4.23 break. How all this relates to where we are at this moment in time is we have to accept the potential of the bear bet being so wrong that even if there's a crash later it comes back to this price - meaning if it doesn't work here- entirely drop it and aggressively trend follow. If the bear bet is right we have to be inside of a 1.61 head fake of a 4.23. If we're inside of a head fake is has to sell off very consistently. We crash back to the break level. Price "Isn't meant" to be above that level and when the brief flurry is over it's nothing but selling. The consistency with which this style of rejection has is uncommon so it was really weird seeing it off the first 1.61 reaction. For the rejection thesis to be valid now the pullback in is we should be in the second trend leg which will complete the return to 4.23. If it's the second trend leg it can't be weaker than the first. The first was extremely consistent. From my perspective that's the bear bet. It's really specific for me at this point. If the bear thesis is going to be good we're inside a 1.61 head fake. The 1.61 is retesting and when it is rejected for a second time we're into a strong downmove to where the false breakout started. What it would take from the prices we currently are to turn me into a hyper raving bull that was discussing different bubble moves that may be about to build up is not a lot at this point. It would take very little to convince me to start to buy all the dips with tight stops and it'd not take all that much longer of that working for me to say it was extremely likely all the implied bear risk was behind us and it's all rockets and emojis for the next two years. I think when it comes to what the next big swings will be in markets it's important to be very objective because it's wild just how easily juxtaposed ideas can make sense. For example, AI. One could make a bulletproof case that we should expect a productivity boom based on AI. Lots of people can do much more. But you can make the inverse forecast that AI will be deflationary. Bringing prices down. Creating job losses. As jobs are lost, less money is spent - especially if things are deflationary because you can buy it cheaper later. Less money being spent is less business income and more jobs lost. Companies that survived would likely main use AI and it's easy to see how all that could end up being bad for markets. There are a lot of things like could go either way like that and have polarised reactions in the market but something related to AI is almost certainly going to happen. If AI advancements don't stall out rapidly they're going to start making real changes in the things happening in the world - this could easily justify a bubble or it could put prices into a race to zero. Then there's weird things like what happens when AIs become more and more of the trading volume - surely that's coming ... right? What will they do? It's something you can again make binary extreme cases for. You could make a case that the AIs would notice patterns of a topping market and start to trade in a way that brought about a crash. Or you could argue AIs might start to engage in some form of reward hacking and the way to optimise success is to drive the market vertical. I don't really see the point in narrative based analysis but if you do a thought experiment where you imagine the market either has crashed or has doubled rapidly it's now easier than it ever has been to find different viable ways you could work backwards to how events complimented that. It's wise to be agnostic and evidence based while we're at such a big decision level because the potential to be wrong big is so great and the likelihood you'll be bluffed into thinking you're right just at the worst moment is so high. Maybe bulls have had that now. But even if we sell and make a new low, this may turn out to be a second leg of a bear trap and be the low- being wrong from there as a bear would be even worse. Runs to new highs could come before a crash. If and when the decision is made it should be easy to make money. The 4.23 break would be far better to make money. The trend lasting over a year. A bear break would be trickier with the ups and downs of a bear market but lucrative for the correct strategies. The important thing is being equally acceptant of either outcome - and also accept the reality that neither of the implied outcomes may happen. Which would be a huge anti-climax for me. Really would. If whatever happens next is vanilla, I'd feel a bit cheated. The 4.23 rejection off a 1.61 spike out would be a very exceptional thing. It should be evidenced by exceptional action. If the bear trend is not persistent, there's a good chance it's not working. Up-trending through the resistance levels would make the bear case indefensible in my opinion and in the event of a typical 4.23 break make being bear bias into the future certain to fail no matter how good you are at it. The down move has a lot of proving it to do yet before it crosses from an expected move in a bullish pullback to a real threat of a trend break. At this point both would look exactly the same - what we see in the coming week is likely to be more telling.
SP:SPX
by holeyprofit
2
SPX500 Quick Market Outlook – May 23, 2025 | 15m ChartPosted by Wavervanir_International_LLC Today's session shows bearish continuation patterns despite a temporary bounce. We're currently trading just below the equilibrium level, with price rejecting from the 0.5 and 0.618 retracement zone. The bearish OB (Order Block) above continues to act as a ceiling. 🔍 Key Observations: Price action is forming lower highs under resistance. Volume profile and Smart Money Concepts (SMC) suggest distribution near the 5787–5794 zone. Break below 5766.41 (daily ORB low) could open the path to 5721.75 – 1.618 extension. Bullish invalidation only above 5793.80, where price would regain control above the mid-FVG and EMA cluster. ⚠️ Watch List: Key levels: 5787.44 (pivot), 5761.17 (support), 5721.75 (target) Bias: Bearish unless price reclaims 5795+ with volume Trigger: Confirmation via 15m candle close below 5766 and breakdown in volume structure Stay adaptive. The market structure is still forming, and liquidity sweeps can occur.
FX:SPX500Short
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
Full Bear Break PlansToday we took out our second important support level and have sold off strong under it. We're in a rally as I write this but it's still inside the expected corrective range. We still have not net where I'd expect critical supports to be around 5500 but at this point KI feel we do have enough info to make a forecast of what a crash would probably look like. People always think crash forecasts are hard to make. Top forecasts are hard to make. Accurate forecasts on when a crash break will or will not happen are hard to make. When it comes to the actual swings of a crash when they happen - historically always been very simple to make. If the bull trap low and high is known, the crash levels have always been foreseeable. For example, when this low and high was known in 2007, all the important levels and the low of the 2008 / 2009 move could be mapped out. This isn't an isolated case. It's happened in all previous crashes. If you follow my work you'll have seen me trade important levels in drops / lows many times and it's always based on some derivative of this. If we know the high/low of the bull trap then we can identify the important break level and map out all the levels to the downside that would typically hit. We can know the zones where there's the risk of this and also know early if the bear setup is failing. If SPX was going to make a classic break it'd be quite easy to approximate the classic swings we'd have now. The first continent for this is a wick rejection on the monthly chart, and ideally in the last part of the month. This may be underway now. The selling has to stick with us either going lower or at least holding down - but if things keep going as they have recently we'll have the wick candle. I recently showed how we tend to have the failure of bullish wick candles before a trend break. In that setup we usually see a big bullish wick candle. Often an attempt to rally and rejection so we have opposing wick candles (bull wick is usually bigger) and after this comes a bearish engulfing candle which is bigger than all the candles around it and takes out the wick low. That move would take us to about 4500. And almost certainly be news driven. From here we usually enter into a period of choppy action. It feels bullish and bearish but it's really just going sideways. Often this will end with two big bluffs. First a bluff at being about to break to the downside and then a big spike out of the recent highs. This choppy action would likely go on for a few months in total with a high somewhere around 5000. That'd be the last major bull trap and from there we'd start to head into the crash section. During this section we'd travel as much as the full bear swing from high to the current low had taken but we'd do it in a fraction of the time. Over the space of a couple months we'd make a massive news supported capitulation to under the 2022 low. That'd then complete a 50% drop from the high. Even in extremely bearish setups we tend to get a bounce from around the 50% off the high level and we also tend to get a bounce when we spike out an obvious support zone - so whatever the overall move would be, if and when the 2022 low was spiked out this is around where I'd expect an important low. This is a step continent trade plan. We can define a marker and if it hits then the bias is towards the next marker. The first marker was there would be a monthly wick candle. The following marker would be there is a rejection and close down end of month. Third marker would be a massive bear candle taking out the wick low. Fourth marker would be the "Recovery" being muted and stalling out around 500. If all of those things happen, then the risk of a following breakout becoming a crash event would be high. In theory, we could be about 6 months from a major crash and we could put in a series of specific markers as warning signs along the way. First warning sign is there being no V recovery to this selling and the monthly candle closing with a wick. This post touches on various things that have been explained in far more detail in recent posts. It'd be recommended to read those for full context.
SP:SPXShort
by holeyprofit
3
US500 at a Crossroads: Diamond Pattern in PlayUS500 at a Crossroads: Diamond Pattern in Play US500 is forming a small diamond pattern, but the risk is high since the pattern is still developing and could evolve further. The price shows signs of a decline, but a strong breakout is needed to confirm the movement. Diamond patterns are typically trend continuation setups, but the final direction depends on where the breakout happens. Both scenarios are well explained on the chart PS: The best approach is to wait for the breakout before taking action. THIS SETUP IS VALID ONLY FOR TODAY You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
CAPITALCOM:US500
by KlejdiCuni
8
GAP to Fill in RectangleThe S&P 500 (SPX) is poised to fill its recent gap, having re-entered the prior consolidation range and now challenging the 200-day moving average. With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sitting near overbought territory, the market may need a brief cooldown before resuming its trend. At the same time, rising bond yields are casting a shadow on equities, as investors weigh the impact of higher borrowing costs on corporate profits. Until yields stabilize, we’re likely to see heightened volatility around key technical levels.
SP:SPXShort
by Bipolar_trader
SPX (S&P 500) – Double Top Rejection or Fakeout? Major BreakdownThe S&P 500 just got REJECTED at the key supply zone near 5,842, a level we’ve tested multiple times since Q1. This looks like a potential double top, and the rejection wick is no joke! Here’s what’s cooking: 1. Strong Supply Rejection: Price failed to break and hold above the 5,842 level – this zone has now acted as a wall for weeks. Clear signs of exhaustion from the bulls. 2. Bearish Setup in Play: If price fails to reclaim 5,842 fast, there’s room to fall toward: 5,044.09 – Previous breakout zone 4,091.47 – Major demand (high volume node & previous consolidation base) 3. Clean Risk-to-Reward Bearish Play: Short entries from the supply zone with stops above recent highs could offer great R:R down to the 4,000 zone. 4. Macro Context: This rejection comes at a time when economic uncertainty is rising – a correction may already be in motion. Watch for institutional exits. Trade Plan: Bias: Bearish below 5,842 Confirmation: Break and close below 5,700 for momentum Target Zones: 5,044 and 4,091 Invalidation: Daily close above 5,900 Is SPX done pumping or will bulls defend? Drop your thoughts – Short or Long? Like & follow for real-time updates!
SP:SPXShort
by FrankFx14
SPX500 H1 | Multi-swing-low support at 38.2% Fib retracementSPX500 is falling towards a multi-swing-low support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 5,822.41 which is a multi-swing-low support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss is at 5,770.00 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit is at 5,932.39 which is a swing-high resistance that aligns close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
TRADU:SPX500Long
by Tradu
SPX Short Puts - An Idea to testI dont like paper trading because it doesnt seem real. Just like online poker thats not for real money, its hard to care enough. So I put this trade on this morning, SPX Sold 5735 Put and Bought 5700 Put for $5.95 credit 8 day expiration (May 30). An 8 day trade is of course exposed to overnight and over a long weekend risk but its traded around the support range of the gap fill. I built the spread at the strikes I wanted then moved it out in expiration until it had an amount of credit I felt good about it. Theres been an upward drift on it so far today so its gone in my favor, I dont recall what the delta was at the time but its 18.51 now so it had to be in the 20's. Its up $115 right now so it could be closed as a winner and I can come back tomorrow for something else, but I'm going to leave it open. The thought here is I like the support level of 5720 if the gap fill occurs, it should have a decent bounce if it even gets there so my 5735 shouldnt get into that much more trouble anyway. The idea here is if it even gets to the range of it, I roll it because regardless of what happens, I dont think its going to stay below 5720 for too long. The other part of the idea is if the market drifts sideways or upward, I can roll it out daily to maintain about the same delta and collect some credit. I dont really want to go longer than 9 or 10 days though so I'd have to look for a different strike when it moves too high.
SP:SPX
by Rikity
S&P 500: Consolidating & forming bull flag on support trendlineSo, we all know that the market is taking a breather, and the past week has been mostly flat (kind of). There have been plenty of headlines, some good, some bad. Most notably, the news about the Moody's US credit downgrade. I woke up one morning, took a look at LinkedIn and saw all the CFA-certified investing experts expecting a massive game-changing moment, potentially a market crash. Except, the market hasn't responded so negatively. In fact, I'd say that while long-term yields have been rising, the market has been doing its own thing . For instance, taking a look at the daily chart of the S&P 500 paints a different picture of the doom and gloom that I've been hearing ALL weekend and ALL week long. As you can see, the index is currently sitting on the daily support trendline which goes back to the 7th April low. On that trendline, taking a closer look, it seems the flat price action has been forming a bull flag. It's quite narrow and tight. But it certainly is a fine-looking bull flag. And a break above that would take the S&P 500 even higher. This would also likely have a positive effect on other indices. Furthermore, it might be worth keeping an eye on the big S&P 500 stocks that are high-beta and like to follow the market. So, to my point about how the market has been doing its own thing...seems that the Moody's downgrade could have possibly been already priced-in. I could be wrong, of course, as markets are still quite volatile and fragile to any sort of macro and global developments about trade and conflicts around the world. Thank you for reading. Note: not financial advice
SP:SPXLong
by michaeldobski
Pimp Your Indicators – A Smoothed Take on RSIYou don’t need to reinvent the wheel to find new and effective trading tools. Often, enhancing classic indicators with a few thoughtful modifications can yield surprisingly powerful results. Here’s a simple yet effective way to upgrade the RSI and turn it into a more actionable entry signal. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a widely used oscillator that ranges from 0 to 100, providing a measure of upside momentum within a given timeframe. For example, an RSI reading of 60 implies a 60% upside dominance based on recent price action. Traditionally, traders interpret levels above 70 as overbought and below 30 as oversold. However, RSI on its own isn’t reliable as a standalone entry trigger. An overbought reading doesn’t necessarily mean the market is losing strength—it simply indicates recent data reflects a strong upward move. Smoothed RSI Approaches To extract more useful signals, we can enhance the RSI in a couple of simple but effective ways: 1. RSI vs. RSIMA (RSI Moving Average): One approach is to smooth the RSI itself by calculating a moving average of the RSI (call it RSIMA), and then observe the difference between the RSI and its moving average. A positive difference suggests bullish momentum; a negative one, bearish. This approach reduces some noise but can still result in a choppy indicator, as seen in the subplot of the reference chart. 2. RSI on Smoothed Price (RSI5M): A more refined method involves smoothing the price before calculating RSI. Specifically, apply a 5-period EMA (Exponential Moving Average) to the price series, then compute the RSI on this smoothed series—let’s call it RSI5M. The key insight is to then analyze the difference between RSI5M and the standard RSI. This difference creates a smoother, more robust signal that better captures market bias. Why It Works In uptrends, the EMA(5) smooths out short-term fluctuations and highlights the prevailing trend more clearly than raw price data. As a result, RSI5M tends to rise faster and higher than the standard RSI. The difference between the two becomes positive in uptrends and negative in downtrends, making it a useful gauge of directional momentum. This effect is illustrated in the lower subplot of the reference chart, where the smoothed signal offers a clearer view of market regimes. Ready-to-Use Script If you're not into coding, you can explore the public script of the Parsifal.RSI.Trend indicator on TradingView. It implements a slightly refined version of this smoothed RSI differential and provides a clean visual cue for trend bias.
TVC:SPXEducation
by parsifaltrading
Has the S&P 500 rally ended?The US stock indices saw a noticeable drop in recent trading sessions, as markets wait for President Donald Trump’s new tax plan and its implications for US debt. The S&P 500 had surged more than 23% since April, but the rally seems to have ended from a technical point of view, reflecting rising concerns about the US economy. A bearish divergence appeared while prices were making higher highs, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) was making lower highs. This is a negative signal, and it played out clearly, pushing the index down to a new low. This suggests that bearish momentum is still strong. What’s the possible next move? Any current rise in the market may just be a temporary correction in a larger downtrend. A key resistance level for the S&P 500 is 5,937.55, which is 78% of the recent move based on Fibonacci retracement. The price could react negatively there, either with a small pullback or by continuing the downward trend toward 5,850.23. However, if the price rises above 5,971.53 and closes above it on the daily chart, the negative outlook would be invalidated, and it could signal the beginning of a new upward trend.
CFI:US500
by CFI