US500FU trade ideas
SPX us500The index has a target price range of 5991, there is a possibility of going up from this moment, but another possibility is that the range of 5520 will be touched and then it will move up.
SPX500 H4 | Bullish uptrend to extend further?SPX500 is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 5,704.90 which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 5,590.00 which is a level that lies underneath an overlap support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 5,848.75 which is an overlap resistance that aligns close to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement.
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Stock Market Hits Extreme Oversold Levels — Rebound Already ...Trump tariffs and other geopolitical events triggered a market correction.
But in the bigger picture, this noise means very little.
Mathematical models and indicators are pointing to extreme oversold levels.
If a recession hasn't started yet — this could be a great opportunity.
Even if it has already begun, strong bounces from current levels are possible across many stocks.
In fact, some of those bounces are already happening — and we can see that across multiple instruments.
Personally, I picked up a few quantum tech tickers like IONQ, which is already up +40%, and added a bit of NVDA.
Holding for now.
The bull and bear caseStill leaning bearish, but a tag of 5750 is likely first before any pullback. After open I'm looking for a reversal. Good luck!
3pm updatePossible bounce here, technically it looks feasible. If overnight is a bounce, we may have a C wave into Friday. It's very uncertain here.
Buy SnP500Ready to Rally? I think so.
My best trading strategy is to follow the big money—to follow the actions of the market conductor. Right now, I see buying activity in the market and believe this idea has strong potential.
This is a med-term trade, so size your position wisely to avoid overloading your portfolio with a single trade. There are and will be plenty of great opportunities in the market. Give this position the time and space to realize its full potential.
Exact targets are unknown.
The best way to proceed here is by using a trailing stop-loss.
The first Stop Loss is set at 5495.
As the asset rises. move the stop loss higher.
S&P 500 eases back from 200-dayThe S&P 500 has been on an impressive two-week rally but is now encountering a crucial resistance zone. The index is currently testing resistance near the 200-day moving average and a previous support level in the 5770-5800 range. This key area, highlighted in grey on the chart, could determine whether the recent bullish momentum continues.
Meanwhile, support is found around 5695-5670, marked in blue on the chart. This zone is significant as it previously served as the launch point for the post-election rally before it lost steam. Reclaiming this level is a bullish signal, but the S&P 500 needs to stay above it through to next week to maintain its upward trajectory.
If support at 5695-5670 fails, the bulls could face serious headwinds. A breakdown at this level may trigger renewed selling pressure, similar to the declines seen in previous weeks. The situation could worsen if the index falls below 5600, which was Friday’s low, when a hammer candle was formed.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
Intraday Buy Opportunity: US500Intraday Idea - We look to Buy TRADENATION:US500 at 5735
Technical View
Trades at the highest level in 12 days
The rally has posted a correction count on the intraday chart
An overnight negative theme in Equities has led to a lower open this morning
Bespoke support is located at 5735
Previous resistance, now becomes support at 5725
Stop: 5695
Target: 5867
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Look before you leap. Two up days this week on top of pricing holding support in the previous week.
Sound like a good time to be a buyer? Consider this weekly chart of SPX and its trendline over the last year. When was the last time you saw price make a new high that began like this?
Oh it can happen, I'm just point out that it is a low-probability bet right now. It would be far more likely for SPX to break its trendline and head lower than it would for prices to make a new high. Think about that before you make your next purchase in stocks.
Bullish momentum to extend?S&P500 (US500) is falling towards the pivot which is a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 5,671.90
1st Support: 5,599.90
1st Resistance: 5,843.10
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Hourly Sell DivergenceThere was supposed to be less tariffs, but by the close, it's more tariffs not less. The charts don't lie like politicians often do.
SP500 - Long Strategy with FED effectI think that FED can give a pump to SP500, probably we will go directly to first 2 target than we can have a retest of support area. In any case there is a volume pressure under this price level so is aspected a long wave.
US 500 Index – A Deeper Rally or Retreat?The US 500 rallied 0.8% last week to close at 5666 and in doing so managed to lock in its first up week since early February. The bounce also brought some joy to those dip buyers that had to endure watching the index move into correction territory (10% drop from 6144 high) the previous week when it touched a 6-month low at 5505 on March 13th.
Looking forward, it is probably still way too early to say that the selling and rotation away from US stocks into other global indices is over, although what we can say is that traders have taken a pause for reflection ahead of what could be a volatile finish to the end of the first quarter of 2025. Afterall, sentiment towards stocks in the US 500, especially the technology sector, remains fragile.
In the week ahead traders are likely to be focused on the finer details of President Trump’s plan for reciprocal tariffs, which are due to hit all countries, including long-time US allies, on April 2nd. The breadth of these tariffs and the extent of retaliatory measures, particularly from China and the EU, are likely to have knock on implications for US economic growth, inflation and consumer confidence (see below) , all of which are key factors that may impact future corporate earnings and the direction of the US 500 across the week.
Economic Data:
Monday: 1345 GMT US Preliminary PMI Surveys
Tuesday: 1400 GMT US Consumer Confidence
Friday: 1230 GMT US PCE Index (Fed’s preferred inflation gauge)
Solid Footing:
The US 500 has opened the week on a more solid footing after a weekend report on Bloomberg suggested President Trump’s wave of tariffs are to be more targeted than the all-out assault he has touted on social media over the last few weeks.
However, this is yet to be confirmed, and while not the worst-case scenario, it would still be an escalation of the current trade wars and may still result in retaliatory measures from those countries that are hit the hardest. It could also mean traders need to be on Trump social media watch again in the early part of this week.
Technical Update: A Question of Fibonacci Retracements
The US 500 index encountered an aggressive sell-off of 10.4% from the February 2025 all-time high at 6144 to its March low of 5505, from which attempts to bounce have materialised.
This low was important from a technical perspective because the sell off tested a possible support level, marked by a Fibonacci retracement. In the case of the US 500 index, it was the 50% level of the April 2024 to February 2025 advance which stands at 5533 (see chart above).
Using Fibonacci Retracements:
Fibonacci retracements are useful as they can highlight potential support levels when any price weakness is seen and potential resistance levels when any price strength is seen.
Closing breaks below retracement support or above retracement resistance can suggest the possibility of a more extended price move in the direction of the break.
We recently published a report on how to use Fibonacci retracements in greater detail, so please take a look at our timeline to read this.
Are Fibonacci Retracement Levels Offering Any Insight into Recent US 500 Index Moves?
Having already rallied following tests of the 5533 retracement level, this has been confirmed as a support focus moving forward. While closing breaks are not a guarantee of further price declines, with much still dependent on future price trends and sentiment across the trading week, it may well be closes below this level that expose the potential for deeper declines.
If this were to happen, downside potential may then shift towards retracement support at the 61.8% level, which stands at 5389 as you can see on the chart above.
Fibonacci Resistance Focus:
We can also run Fibonacci retracements on the February to March phase of weakness to provide potential resistance levels to focus on in case there is an extension of the recent rally. The 38.2% retracement of the February to March decline stands at 5750 and this is a level that might need to be monitored.
If this 5750 level were to be broken on a closing basis, it may be possible to see a more extended phase of price strength which could could skew the focus for traders towards resistance at 5825, which is the higher 50% retracement level, may be even 5900, which is the 61.8% retracement.
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S&P 500 Setting Up for a Breakout – But Not Before One More TrapAs I’ve said before, the FOREXCOM:SPX500 is a key reference for my crypto trading . That’s why I sat down and took a closer look at the chart – and I’m now ready to place a limit order , based on what I’m seeing.
I believe we’re still in a correction phase , and it’s far from over . However, I think it’s realistic that we’ll see a move toward $5,832 next week . Before that happens, I expect either today’s Monday Low or next week’s Previous Weekly Low to get swept, ideally triggering a dip into the 12-hour Fair Value Gap just below.
That’s where I see my entry zone forming. It’s also the exact area where Wave B overshoots the starting point of Wave ABC, making it a clean Flat correction pattern, with Wave C completing to the downside before we get a solid move upward.
I’m setting my stop-loss below the $5,500 low. If this setup plays out, I expect the S&P to push toward $5,832 , and after that, I’m anticipating a larger correction that could take the index back down to $5,500 or even $5,450 over the coming weeks.
Timing remains unclear for that move after, but the structure is here , and I’m looking forward to seeing how it plays out.
Why I Took the L (and Feel Great About It)Why I Took the L (and Feel Great About It) | SPX Analysis 24 Mar 2025
The markets are meandering again, and I’m starting to feel like a one-man tribute band for “Brimful of Asha” on repeat. Another grindy week, another re-run of the up-a-bit, down-a-bit SPX drama.
Today’s vibe? Picture those magnificent men in their flying machines… looping up diddely up-up and down diddely down-down with zero destination in sight.
The overnight futures opened with some energy - but landed us smack back into the call wall zone at 5700/5720. Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands are pinching tighter than my jeans post-Christmas, confirming what we already know: this market’s stuck in a range.
But here's the thing… I’m not stressing it. I’ve seen this dance before. And I know exactly what I’m waiting for.
---
Deeper Dive Analysis:
Another week, another range, and here I am again – sipping coffee, muttering to myself like a budget oracle, watching SPX push a few points higher and thinking… "Didn’t we just do this yesterday?"
The overnight futures gapped higher, but the market basically landed us right back into the same call wall we’ve been dancing with all week – 5700/5720. It’s like déjà vu… but with less excitement.
And don’t even get me started on the Bollinger Bands. They’re pinching so tightly now you could use them as a tourniquet. Yes, we’re consolidating. Yes, we already knew that. But now it’s like the market is actively mocking us.
🎯 So what’s changed? Nothing.
The plan remains exactly the same:
Wait for a breakout-pullback – either direction.
Don’t force trades.
Stay sharp, but don’t get twitchy.
Friday’s rally? It messed with the last of my bear swings, and instead of dragging the positions out like a bad soap opera, I just let them expire and took the loss. Not because I had to. But because they were irritating me.
Sometimes, the smartest move is not about managing the trade – it’s about managing the trader. I cleared the decks, reset the headspace, and now I’m ready for what comes next.
So here we are:
Bullish trigger is still 5720+
Bearish trigger stays below 5605
Everything in between is just noise.
And yeah, I’m still leaning bearish, but I’m not forcing it. We’ve seen this pattern before – the grind, the stall, the fakeout. And when the real move comes? That’s when I’ll strike.
Until then, it’s back to the charts, back to the tea, and back to waiting with the quiet smugness of someone who knows patience pays better than panic.
Let’s see if today delivers… or if we’re just rolling the same episode again.
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Fun Fact
📢 In 1997, when the VIX dropped below 10, traders called it "nap time."
The market stayed so calm for so long, many option traders took part-time jobs just to stay busy - including one notorious story of a floor trader who moonlighted as a nightclub bouncer.
💡Lesson? When volatility vanishes, don’t force action – prepare for the return of chaos.
Market Maker Buy Model 1h time frame The price produces repetitive actions within three days - accumulation, manipulation, distribution. I expect the movement until a week break of fair value in the form of "volume GAP", and after receiving the model I will look at short positions
SPX: uncertainty holdsAnother relatively mixed trading week for US equities. The most important weekly event was certainly the FOMC meeting, where the Fed decided to hold interest rates unchanged for one more time. Important input was that the Fed is still on the track of two rate cuts during the course of the year, which modestly supported positive market sentiment. Still, uncertainties regarding decisions of the US Administration, specially related to trade tariffs are leaving the mark for precaution among market participants. Along with the trade tariffs, consultant companies like Accenture are affected by the DOGE cuts in spending and whose shares suffered a 7,3% drop in value.
The S&P 500 was traded higher by 0,5% on a weekly level. However, uncertainty is still evident in the index moves. The highest weekly level was 5.710, while the index closed the week at the level of 5.667. Companies are starting to bring up their estimates regarding future earnings. Currently, some of them noted expectations that trade tariffs will impact their future sales, planning of capital spending and jobs. As long as uncertainty holds on the market, the prices of stocks will be in a volatile mood. In this sense, it should not be expected to see some exponential moves in the S&P 500, like it was during the previous two years.
Bearish drop?S&P500 (US500) is reacting off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 5,705.61
1st Support: 5,507.00
1st Resistance: 5,814.09
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
SPX Present Day vs. 21-22 Price PathTVC:SPX
An interesting chart setup into next week (close underneath the broadening pattern), and current price action overlaid with the 2021-2022 price path for an idea of where price might go.
Goodluck!
S&P 500: Bull Run Reversal Underway S&P 500 increased by just 0.08% to close Friday's trade at 5,667 after a four-week decline. It is now down over 7% from February's peak of 6,147. The index has broken its bullish daily structure, signalling the start of a major correction. Critical support at 5,542 must hold to avoid further downside.
If support holds, a temporary rebound could reach targets of 5,662, 5,737, 5,858, and 5,932. Failure to maintain 5,542 would lead to the second stage, targeting 5,151. Given current economic pressures, a four-stage correction resembling past corrections is plausible, potentially reaching as low as 4,564.
Trendline Broken – Is the Bull Run in Trouble?The S&P 500 index is currently exhibiting a critical technical structure. After forming a series of Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL) within a well-respected rising trendline, the price recently made an All-Time High (ATH) but has since shown signs of weakness. The trendline, which has acted as a dynamic resistance multiple times, has now been broken.
At present, the price is retesting the key horizontal support zone and the 200 EMA after the breakdown. This retest is crucial—a rejection here could confirm a bearish shift, potentially leading to lower levels near the next key support zone. Additionally, the RSI is displaying a bearish divergence, signaling weakening momentum despite recent highs.
Key Takeaway:
Watch for confirmation at the retest zone. A rejection may signal a deeper correction, while a reclaim of the trendline and 200 EMA could reestablish the bullish structure. Risk management is key at these pivotal levels.
SPX - Melt up & Crash series [2]This most recent price action has helped confirm the bottom rail of the parallel channel to simplify the picture.
SPX has a date with the upper channel. Potentially at the 2.618 Fib extension.
Then... down?
Not financial advice.
