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US 500 - Rolling Future (Per 1.0)US 500 - Rolling Future (Per 1.0)US 500 - Rolling Future (Per 1.0)

US 500 - Rolling Future (Per 1.0)

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S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 21, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the course of this week's trading session, the S&P 500 achieved the designated target for the Inner Index Rally at 5576, which occurred midweek. This target was accompanied by considerable volatility, ultimately hindering upward movement. On the week's final trading day, the index experienced a notable decline, resulting in a significant drop that reached our critical target, Mean Support, at 5603. Consequently, the index is now poised to target a retest of the Inner Index Rally level 5712, with a subsequent potential target identified at the Mean Resistance level 5840. It is essential to consider that upon reaching the Inner Index Rally target of 5712, a decrease in the current price level is anticipated, which may lead to a retest of the Mean Support at 5601. Furthermore, an extended decline is possible to revisit the completed Outer Index Dip at 5520 before the resumption of an upward rally.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
Still more upside for SPX500USDHi traders, SPX500USD did exactly what I've predicted. Last week I said we could see a (corrective) upmove to the higher Weekly FVG. It depends if the upmove is corrective or impulsive what we will be the move after that. But also fundamentally we could see more longer term downside for this pair. This scenario is still in progress for next week. So let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for a small correction down to finish on a lower timeframe to trade longs. If you want to see more from my analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a boost and respectful comment. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. If you don't agree, that's fine but I don't need to know it. I do not provide signals. Don't be emotional, just trade! Eduwave
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by EduwaveTrading
Rolling Crisis': How one solution tends to feed the next problemThe Cycle of Crisis: How Fed Interventions and Post-Crisis Policies Set the Stage for Future Turbulence Research suggests that solutions to financial crises—ranging from the Federal Reserve’s early market interventions in 1922 to post-2008 policies—often create conditions that later lead to new crises. Historical evidence indicates that measures such as deposit insurance, deregulation, and quantitative easing can inadvertently encourage risk-taking, creating a cyclical pattern of stabilization followed by vulnerability. ================================ Historical Context and Analysis ================================ The Fed's Role Since 1922 In 1922, the Federal Reserve pioneered the use of open market operations to manage the money supply. By purchasing government securities, the Fed aimed to stabilize credit conditions and influence interest rates. This early intervention set the stage for modern monetary policy and demonstrated how central bank actions can have far-reaching effects on market behavior. Post-Great Depression Reforms and Moral Hazard Following the Great Depression, a series of reforms restored public confidence: Glass-Steagall Act (1933): Separated commercial and investment banking to limit excessive risk-taking. Creation of the FDIC: Insured bank deposits, boosting consumer trust. Fed as Lender of Last Resort: Provided emergency liquidity to prevent bank failures. These measures, while stabilizing, also introduced moral hazard. Banks, knowing they were protected, gradually assumed more risk—a trend that contributed to later financial instability. Deregulation and the 2008 Crisis In the 1990s and early 2000s, financial deregulation intensified: Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act (1999): Repealed parts of Glass-Steagall, allowing banks to merge commercial and investment functions. Commodity Futures Modernization Act (2000): Deregulated derivatives markets, increasing the complexity of financial instruments. Intended to modernize the financial sector, these changes inadvertently enabled risk buildup. The mixing of high-risk investment activities with traditional banking practices contributed to vulnerabilities that eventually led to the 2008 financial meltdown. Post-2008 Policies and Unintended Consequences In response to the 2008 crisis, policymakers adopted aggressive measures: Quantitative Easing (QE): The Fed injected liquidity by purchasing large quantities of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities. Low Interest Rates: Keeping rates near zero spurred borrowing and spending. While these policies stabilized markets and averted deeper recession, they also contributed to unintended outcomes such as asset price bubbles and rising inflation, which may sow the seeds for future economic challenges. ================================ Cyclical Nature of Crisis Responses ================================ A review of historical episodes reveals a recurring pattern where each crisis response, while effective in the short term, can alter market incentives and build vulnerabilities that later trigger new crises. Comparative Analysis 1922–1929: Open market operations stabilized credit but contributed to speculative booms. Post-1930s: Safety nets restored confidence but led to increased risk-taking (moral hazard). 1990s–2000s: Deregulation modernized finance yet enabled risk buildup that precipitated the 2008 crisis. Post-2008: QE and low rates stabilized recovery but fueled asset bubbles and inflation. Lessons for Policymakers Tailored Responses: Each crisis is unique; policies must account for long-term impacts. Guard Against Moral Hazard: Safety nets should be paired with measures to discourage reckless behavior. Balanced Regulation: Financial innovation requires robust oversight to prevent systemic risks. Conclusion From the Fed’s pioneering steps in 1922 to today’s complex economic environment, history shows that every crisis solution has its price. Emergency measures—though vital for short-term stability—can reshape market incentives and create vulnerabilities that may lead to future crises.
SP:SPX
by holeyprofit
US500 Panic sell, Major support, psychological level LONG Hello fellow traders, Yesterday was one of the darkest days for some of you who invested in market and had high hopes and once the price gone over certain levels the machines started selling selling selling and who knows what Monday will bring? Maybe on Sunday some salvation will come from USA! hahaha! Anyway, trading and chart wise- this is a major support zone for sp500 5000!! and look how the price has hit the trend line and look how the RSI is oversold and look...this is a Daily chart! I like going from daily to 4h and 1h intervals, Daily oversold is a good signal for a reversal at least for NOW, correction faze to 5400 perhaps and will see, for now my bet is on the Long position with the target 5,400 This is not a trading advise, just an idea and wait!- s/l advisable here I would say below 4650 being win to loss ratio slightly above 1:1
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by lb-counts
SPX, What is next? Trump knows best!Just putting my personal view based on market information and minimum speculation. I hope my warning of a crash in my last post was useful I rely heavily on volume profile and market geometry and of course my indicator( check it out: HiLo Ema squeeze bands) I expect the market to fall to 4820 (about 61.8% fib level) to fill some volume gap, also 2022 peak, do a small a-b-c bottom and then rally back up to say 5450 ish, if some good news is heard. This would be just a bear rally But I believe, Trump has opened a pandora's box and the market is still not aware of the full impact of it, or maybe it did realise and hence the crash 16% of USA budget is used for interest payment. If inflation rises and China and Japan keep selling treasuries, the bonds will go down. Not to speak of some major hedge funds like Citadel and banks holding trillions in treasury bond would increase their unrealised losses on bonds. But the stock market fall will force them to liquidate the bonds realise the loss, unless Fed buys the bonds back, which they will as always. That would be QE and the next bull run will begin. The banks have been holding the bonds since covid. Remember Silico Valley bank going burst! That was a sample. Fed has managed to clicked the can down the road long, but Trumps policies will send the can in Fed's face A financial liquidity baby seeded by Fed and Biden Adm during covid is about to take birth soon as financial crisis I am bearish till Fed announces QE
SP:SPXShort
by krisoz
are we repeating 1987 and going to 4000 on S&P?Though the correction and market reaction was expected for macro economic conditions, did not anticipate such severe and sharper decline. This doesn't mimic regualr circumstances like healthy and organic correction, rather it mimic covid and 1987 flash crash. I started to feel now we may repeat 1987 thus may see more downtrend next week or two and slowly world comes to adjust to new conditions and prepare. This could be slow recovery thereafter hardly touching 5100 on S&P by Christmas
SP:SPXShort
by PJCharts4FUN
401(k)s: A Safe Bet or a Rigged Game?In 2008, the S&P 500 dropped 57% at its lowest, wiping out decades of savings for millions of Americans. People who were 5–10 years from retirement lost everything overnight—and they had no way out. And here’s the problem: • 401(k)s are heavily stock-weighted, especially those “target-date” funds that adjust based on age—but not fast enough in a crash. • No active protection. These funds don’t hedge, use stop-losses, or rotate into cash. If the market dumps, you’re just riding it down. • No control or transparency. Most people don’t even know what they’re invested in unless they dig deep into fund holdings. It’s no coincidence that the same Wall Street firms managing 401(k)s make money shorting crashes or getting bailouts, while regular people are told to “just wait it out.” Sure, that might work over decades, but what if you’re close to retirement? Or just don’t want to wait 10 years for a recovery? The Harsh Reality • 401(k)s aren’t really optional. They’re the main retirement plan in the U.S., so most people are forced into them with few alternatives. • Most people don’t actively manage them. They pick a default option, get put into a target-date fund, and hope for the best. That’s where the “sheep” feeling comes in. • You can’t easily exit. There are penalties for withdrawing early, so in a crash, you’re locked in like a prisoner or financial refugee, while the “big boys” cash out first. It’s not a scam in a legal sense—but it is a system that favors the knowledgeable and punishes the passive. Those who don’t study markets, adjust their portfolios, or take active control end up paying the price. And sadly, that’s the majority.
TVC:SPXEducation
by NORD25
S&P500 target 4550The markets are spooked by the recent Trump Administration Tariff's. Such political mayhem harks back to the Smoot Hawley Tariffs of 1930 , when Protectionism plummeted the world into chaos. Fear and Panic has gripped investors. The last week has seen a rapid decline of this index, with the market falling over 5% in the recent trading session. To date the market is down 17.5 percent from the high of 6147. It is likely we will pass into Bear Market territory in the coming week. From a technical perspective , last week was the largest bear candle in the last 5 years and the RSI has moved into the oversold zone. If we look to the last Bear Market of 2022, the 200 Week MAV acted as support. This may be an area again, where the market forms a low. This would coincide with a 70.5 percentile Fibonacci retracement. So 4550 is the updated target for the current move down.
ICMARKETS:US500Short
by Umlingo
S&P 500 Breakdown: 4,790 Worst-Case Scenario in Play?Last week, I warned in this post that if sentiment worsened, the S&P 500 could head toward 4,790 as a worst-case scenario. Fast forward to today, and the index has officially lost the 5,149 support level, opening the door for further downside. What Just Happened? 📉 Key Support Broken: The market just lost 5,149 (1.0 Fib retracement), which was a major line in the sand. 📉 Momentum Still Bearish: With no strong bounce, sellers remain in control, making 4,790 - 4,800 the next major target. 📉 Next Supports: 4,800 zone: A critical psychological level and my worst-case scenario target. 4,761 (1.618 Fib): A key confluence area for a potential bounce. If the S&P 500 fails to reclaim 5,149 quickly, then the next downside targets are: 4,800 – A major area I highlighted last week. 4,761 – Aligns with the 1.618 Fib extension, adding confluence. What Needs to Happen for a Rebound? For bulls to take back control, the index must reclaim at least 5,149, or risk continued selling. A failed bounce could accelerate the move lower. 🚨 I called 4,790 as a worst-case target last week.
SP:SPX
by CryptocurrencyWatchGroup
1
S&P outlook. i think we're currently mid 1987 crash. lines up with a peak fear april 9th and may 27th cut date ( give or take ) literally zero to fear. jpm collar is 4480. they're crushing this because of the speed of the trade. they dont wanna fully break the economy. they just wanna liquidate some degens and buy the dip. learn to love it mane. this also means small caps rally HARD from may on if this plays out. should be a BLAST to play this admin if small caps goes on a genny run while the S&p takes a grind and go approach. bullish on AMEX:MIDU AMEX:TNA AMEX:IWM TVC:RUT SP:MID CRYPTOCAP:BTC CRYPTOCAP:SOL SEED_WANDERIN_JIMZIP900:WIF
SP:SPXLong
by Fadethesniper1
$S&P500 macro analysis , market approaching correction °•° $SPXHi 👋🏻 check out my previous analysis ⏰ on SP:SPX macro bullish analysis ⏰ As provided it went up up 🚀 completed my target's 🎯 💯💪🏻 ✅ ✔️ Click on it 👆🏻 just check out each and every time updates ☝🏻 ☺️ ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• NOW I was completely 🐻 BEARISH on the market with in upcoming months SP:SPX 📌 Expecting liquidation pump $6500 - $6700 Invalid 🛑 when complete month close above $6700 ¹support - $5500 ( 🎯 ¹ ) ²support - $5130 ( 🎯 ² ) 🎯 3 ... Will be updated based on market conditions by that time ☺️ 📍 A wise 🦉 man said - always having patience " is " always gaining only /- NASDAQ:TSLA ( i accumulate slowly until it cross above $400 ) rest of stocks i will follow index ☝🏻 i will invest based on market conditions ..... ✔️
SP:SPXShort
by raj5_7_5
What are Tariffs? How They Work and Why They Matter to You?For centuries, tariffs have played a crucial role in global trade, safeguarding domestic industries, shaping international relations, and influencing economic policies. While they often dominate headlines during trade wars and economic policy debates, many people still don’t fully understand what tariffs are, why they are used, and how they impact the economy. This comprehensive guide covers: ⦿ What tariffs are and how they work ⦿ Different types of tariffs ⦿ Why governments impose tariffs ⦿ The economic, political, and social effects of tariffs. ⦿ Historical and modern examples ⦿ The debate between protectionism and free trade ⦿ Tariffs in different economic systems ⦿ The future of tariffs in a globalized world By the end of this article, you’ll have a decent understanding of tariffs and their role in the global economy. 🤔 What Are Tariffs? A tariff is a tax imposed by a government on imported goods and services. The primary purpose of tariffs is to increase the cost of foreign products, making domestically produced goods more attractive to consumers. This serves several economic and political functions, such as protecting domestic industries, generating government revenue, and addressing trade imbalances. 👍 How Do Tariffs Work? A government sets a tariff rate on imported goods (e.g., 25% on foreign cars). Importers must pay this tax when bringing goods into the country. This increases the cost of imported goods, enhancing the competitiveness of domestic alternatives. Domestic industries benefit from reduced foreign competition. The government collects revenue from the tariff. 🦸‍♂ Who Pays the Tariff? Importers: These businesses or individuals directly pay the tariff when they bring goods into the country. This increases their costs. Businesses: Since importers face higher costs, businesses that rely on imported goods often pass these costs onto consumers by increasing prices. Consumers: Ultimately, the general public bears the cost as they pay higher prices for goods affected by tariffs. 🔎 Types of Tariffs Governments employ various tariffs depending on their economic goals and trade policies. Some of these are: 1️⃣ Ad Valorem Tariffs An ad valorem tariff is a percentage-based tariff calculated on the value of the imported goods. The tax amount increases or decreases with the price of the product. Example: A 10% tariff on imported TVs means a $1,000 TV incurs a $100 tariff. Usage: Commonly used for luxury goods, automobiles, and consumer electronics. 2️⃣ Specific Tariffs A specific tariff is a fixed fee charged per unit of imported goods, regardless of price. Example: $3 per barrel of imported oil. Usage: Often used for commodities like oil, wheat, and alcohol. 3️⃣ Compound Tariffs A compound tariff includes both a percentage-based tax (Ad valorem) and a fixed fee on imports (Specific). This means importers pay a fixed fee per unit as well as a percentage of the item’s value. Example: A 5% tax plus $2 per imported cheese wheel. Usage: Applied to goods where both quantity and value affect the market, such as food products and industrial materials. 4️⃣ Tariff-Rate Quotas (TRQs) A TRQ allows a limited quantity of an imported good to enter at a lower tariff rate. After the quota is reached, extra imports are taxed at a higher rate. Example: One of the most well-known examples of a TRQ is the U.S. Sugar Tariff-Rate Quota. The United States allows a certain quantity of sugar to be imported each year at a lower tariff rate. Any sugar imports within the quota limit are subject to a low tariff (e.g., 5%). However, once the quota is exceeded, any additional sugar imports face a much higher tariff (e.g., 20%). This system ensures that domestic sugar producers remain competitive while still allowing controlled imports to meet demand. Another example is the European Union's TRQ on Beef Imports. The EU permits a specific amount of high-quality beef imports (e.g., from the U.S. and Canada) at a lower tariff. Once this quota is filled, any additional beef imports are taxed at a significantly higher rate. This policy helps protect EU cattle farmers while maintaining trade agreements with international suppliers. 5️⃣ Protective Tariffs A protective tariff helps local industries by making imported goods more costly, reducing foreign competition. Example: The U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on Chinese steel to protect domestic steel manufacturers. Usage: Commonly used in industries facing strong foreign competition, such as steel, automotive, and textiles. 6️⃣ Revenue Tariffs A revenue tariff is mainly designed to raise money for the government, not to shield local industries. Example: In the 19th century, tariffs were the main source of revenue for the U.S. government before income taxes were introduced. Usage: Often applied to goods that do not have strong domestic competition but are widely consumed, such as alcohol and tobacco. ❓ Why Do Governments Impose Tariffs? 1️⃣ Protecting Domestic Industries Tariffs shield local businesses from cheaper foreign competitors, helping domestic industries grow. Example: U.S. steel tariffs in 2018 benefited domestic steel manufacturers. 2️⃣ Generating Government Revenue Before modern taxation systems, tariffs were a key source of revenue for governments. Example: In the 1800s, tariffs accounted for 90% of U.S. federal revenue. 3️⃣ National Security Concerns Some industries, like defense and technology, are crucial for national security, and governments impose tariffs to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers. Example: The U.S. limits imports of rare earth minerals to ensure a domestic supply chain for defense technologies. 4️⃣ Retaliation in Trade Wars Countries impose tariffs to address unfair trade practices or economic conflicts. For instance, during the trade war between the United States and China, both countries imposed taxes on each other's goods 5️⃣ Preventing Dumping Dumping occurs when a country exports goods at below-market prices to eliminate competition. Example: The U.S. imposed tariffs on Chinese solar panels due to concerns about dumping. ⚖️ Pros and Cons of Tariffs Pros ✅ Protects local jobs and industries ✅ Encourages domestic production ✅ Generates government revenue ✅ Enhances national security by reducing reliance on foreign goods Cons ❌ Increases prices for consumers ❌ Can lead to trade wars and economic retaliation ❌ Encourages inefficiency in domestic industries ❌ Disrupts global supply chains 📕 Historical and Modern Examples of Tariffs 1. The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act (1930) The U.S. imposed tariffs on over 20k imported goods. Result: Other countries retaliated, global trade dropped by 66%, and the Great Depression worsened. 2. Trump’s Tariffs on China (2018-2020) The United States levied tariffs on $360 billion worth of Chinese goods. China retaliated, affecting U.S. agriculture exports. Result: Some U.S. industries benefited, but consumers faced higher prices. 3. The European Union’s Tariffs on U.S. Goods (2021) The EU imposed tariffs on American whiskey, motorcycles, and jeans in response to U.S. steel tariffs. Result: Brands like Harley-Davidson saw reduced sales in Europe. ⚙️ Tariffs vs. Free Trade: The Big Debate The debate between tariffs and free trade is a fundamental discussion in global economics and trade policy. This debate revolves around whether governments should impose tariffs (taxes on imported goods) or embrace free trade (minimal to no restrictions on imports and exports). ◉ Free Trade (No Tariffs) Free trade is the unrestricted movement of goods and services across borders without tariffs or other trade barriers. Advocates argue that it fosters economic efficiency and global cooperation. ✅✅ Advantages of Free Trade Lower Prices for Consumers – Without tariffs, imported goods are cheaper, leading to more affordable products. Increased Economic Growth – When countries trade freely, they specialize in what they do best, leading to higher productivity and economic expansion. More Competition = Better Products – Companies must compete on quality and innovation rather than relying on government protection. Stronger Global Relations – Open markets encourage cooperation between nations, reducing the risk of economic conflicts. Access to More Goods and Services – Consumers enjoy a greater variety of products at lower costs. ❌❌ Disadvantages of Free Trade Job Losses in Unprotected Industries – Domestic industries that can't compete with cheaper imports may shrink or shut down. Dependence on Foreign Suppliers – A country may become overly reliant on other nations for essential goods (e.g., medical supplies, electronics). Potential Trade Deficits – Countries that import more than they export may struggle with imbalances in trade. ◉ Protectionism (Using Tariffs) Protectionism refers to economic policies that restrict imports through tariffs, quotas, or other barriers to shield domestic industries from foreign competition. ✅✅ Advantages of Tariffs Protects Local Jobs and Industries – Domestic businesses have a better chance to compete without being undercut by cheaper imports. Reduces Dependence on Foreign Competitors – A country can maintain its own manufacturing and production capabilities, especially in critical industries like steel, energy, and food. Generates Government Revenue – Tariffs provide a source of income for governments, which can be reinvested in public services. Prevents Dumping – Tariffs discourage foreign companies from flooding the market with artificially cheap goods to destroy domestic competition. ❌❌ Disadvantages of Tariffs Higher Prices for Consumers – Since imported goods are taxed, businesses pass the extra costs to customers. Risk of Trade Wars – When one country imposes tariffs, others retaliate, leading to economic conflicts that hurt all parties involved. Encourages Inefficiency – Without foreign competition, domestic companies may become complacent and innovate less. Disrupts Global Supply Chains – Many industries rely on international suppliers; tariffs can increase production costs and delays. ❇️ The Future of Tariffs in a Globalized World As economies become more interconnected, tariffs are often seen as barriers to global trade. Emerging industries, such as digital services, face new trade policy challenges that traditional tariffs do not cover. With globalization, many nations favor free trade agreements (FTAs) like USMCA and the EU single market to reduce trade barriers. Climate-related tariffs, such as carbon border taxes, may become more common as nations try to incentivize environmentally friendly trade practices. 📌 Closing Thoughts Tariffs remain one of the most powerful - and controversial - tools in economic policy. Like a thermostat for trade, they can be adjusted to protect domestic industries, but risk overheating the economy with unintended consequences. History shows that while tariffs can provide temporary relief for specific sectors, they often create ripple effects across the entire economy. The steel tariffs of 2018 helped some American mills reopen, but made cars and appliances more expensive for everyone. Neither free trade nor tariffs are perfect solutions. A balanced approach, where tariffs are selectively used for strategic industries while promoting open markets in others, is often the best path. Each country must decide based on its economic strengths and priorities. For example, developed nations might push for free trade, while developing nations use tariffs to protect growing industries. As trade policies continue evolving, understanding tariffs gives citizens and businesses crucial insight into how globalization affects prices, jobs, and economic security. The debate isn't about whether tariffs are "good" or "bad," but rather when and how they should be used strategically. What are your thoughts on the ongoing U.S. tariff war? Share your opinions in the comments! 📩
SP:SPXEducation
by johntradingwick
Are These the Three Black Crows Signaling More Pain Ahead? The S&P 500 has just printed three consecutive long-bodied red candles following a brief uptrend. This classic "Three Black Crows" formation could be a powerful bearish reversal signal—one that historically hints at a deeper correction on the horizon. 📊 What does this pattern mean? Appears after an uptrend or rally. Consists of 3 bearish candles closing near their lows. Suggests strong seller control and trend reversal potential. 🔍 Current context: The S&P is already under heavy pressure from macroeconomic and geopolitical concerns. This pattern adds further bearish sentiment, especially if we see continued follow-through on volume. 🚨 If confirmed, we could be looking at the continuation of a larger downtrend. But remember: confirmation is key. Watch closely how price reacts in the next 1–2 sessions. 🧠 Do you see this as a real warning—or just a pause before the next leg up? #SP500 #ThreeBlackCrows #CandlestickPatterns #BearishSignal #TechnicalAnalysis
VANTAGE:SP500FTShort
by SmartSignalss