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USA500 trade ideas

S&P 500 Faces Increased Bearish Pressure as Trade War BeginsThe S&P 500 has formed a downtrend channel following the break below the 5700 support level. Trump's new aggressive tariff policy raised the minimum tariff on China to 54%, while China responded with equally aggressive 34% tariffs. The trade war has now officially begun. This escalation is clearly negative for the stock market. Recession risks have risen significantly, and it remains uncertain how much the Fed can cut rates while tariff-driven inflationary pressures persist. Rapid rate cuts could help soften the slowdown but may also risk fueling another inflation surge. That would be the more optimistic case for equities. However, the Fed is likely to proceed cautiously, suggesting that bearish pressure could continue for several quarters. In the short term, the downward trend remains intact. If the S&P 500 breaks the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, it may decline further toward the lower boundary of the new trend channel, where a potential bounce could occur. As long as the trend holds, bears remain in control. Note: Powell is expected to speak today. His remarks carry even more weight following the tariff moves by both the U.S. and China.
SP:SPXShort
by ftdsystem
Hank Tough - Long ride down to 4,514 for US500Even with better than expect numbers with NFP. The matter remains that the world is not on great terms with MAGAs Tariff plan. Tariffs are in an indirect way a threat when it comes to trade wars. Because, there'll need to be reciprocals and larger measures to make up for the mess. Apparently, the calculations of the tariffs was to make up for the trade deficit, but it means that there'll need to ACTUALLY be the same amount or more of exports - which we know won't happen as there are two types of goods. Elastic - Where the price and demand and supply changes. Inelastic - where they a don't change much. Right now there is a LARGE Inverse Cup and Handle forming on the daily with the price below 20 and 200 - showing strong downside to come. So, we can expect looking at the pattern to continue to 4,514. 'Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Thoughts?
TRADENATIONSB:US500Short
by Timonrosso
Are Time and Reason in Harmony in SPX?Are Time and Reason in Harmony in SPX? S&P 1D Technical and Fundamental Analysis; This structure, which looks like an ordinary decline on the SPX daily chart ... in fact, we can say that it carries the pieces of a big scenario that develops synchronously both technically and fundamentally. Let me explain now; 5 December 2024 was not just a breaking point. Because Trump's statements after taking the presidency for the second time, especially the message that ‘customs walls may rise’ had become clear. In the same week, the uptrend in SPX quickly weakened and declined as the FED gave the message ‘Interest rate cut is not imminent’. From here, Bullish Sharq started the formation of harmonic formation. Now comes the week of 1 May. - FED's interest rate decision, - Trump's budget plan, - And one of the critical macro thresholds where company balance sheets are announced. While everything is going well so far, if we take into account that the chart will also touch a strong trend line, it may mean ‘either a bounce or a collapse from here’. Because the price in the market does not just move, it looks for reasons . I would also like to ask you here; What will greet the market when this date comes? Harsh interest rate rhetoric? Trump's aggressive economic agenda? Or a recovery supported by positive balance sheets?
CBOE:SPX
by ugurtash
TrumpFall in the Market due to Reciprocal Tariffs.By Ion Jauregui - Analyst ActivTrades The announcement of new reciprocal tariffs by President Donald Trump has triggered an immediate reaction in the markets, causing dizzying drops in various companies since the beginning of the week. The measure has generated an environment of high volatility, with investors seeking refuge in the face of growing instability. Most Affected Companies and Sectors - Technology and Semiconductors • Apple Inc. has seen its shares fall by more than 15% during the week, affected by its dependence on global supply chains. • Amazon and Meta: Both tech giants have seen declines of about 9%, driven by fears over international exposure and rising tariff costs. • Nvidia and other companies in the semiconductor sector: They have posted even larger declines, reflecting this sector's sensitivity to trade uncertainty. - Automotive and Aerospace • Tesla Inc.: The electric vehicle maker has plunged nearly 20%, driven by concerns about rising production costs and competition from local manufacturing. • Boeing Co: Shares have fallen around 18% on concerns about potential disruptions to its supply chain and the impact of new trade barriers. - Industrials and Conglomerates • General Electric: The conglomerate has seen its share price fall by around 16%, as its extensive global operations are threatened by the tightening of trade policies. - Transportation & Logistics • AP Moller Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd: The shipping companies have suffered sharp declines, reflecting the sector's sensitivity to global trade dynamics and tariff measures. - Energy • Chevron and TotalEnergies: Oil prices have fallen by 5% following the unexpected increase in supply by OPEC+, causing significant losses for these oil companies, which are facing an environment of uncertainty and adjustments in the energy markets. - Financial Sector • Asian Banks: Although no specific names are mentioned, several banks in Asia have experienced pronounced volatility, being affected by the environment of uncertainty and concerns about asset quality in the region. • Small cap indices: The Russell 2000, which groups smaller U.S. companies, has fallen 6.6% and accumulated a loss of over 20% since its record high in November, also reflecting the sensitivity of the financial sector in the current environment. S&P500 Analysis Looking at the one hour chart we can see that since April 2nd, a lower bell curve has already started, despite the fact that the Price Control Point (POC) is located in the area where it was trading in the early hours of yesterday's Asian trading day at around 5624 points. This fall related to the news has caused the markets to discount the price by -6.84% and around 2.34% at yesterday's American opening. As soon as the U.S. session began, the conditions were in place again to continue the fall that seemed to have slowed down during the European day, but it was only a bearish consolidation. At this moment, the US premarket seems to have stopped the fall that generated a third bell in the Asian session. Checking the RSI, it has moved from 70% on Wednesday at 18:00 to 23% in today's Asian session. So it could be that today's day will not be as black as yesterday's, but for the moment the bearish mid-range crossover started on Wednesday has only expanded. As for the average volume on both day 2 and 3 the volume has been similar to the openings of other days, so in this sense it is not something that can reveal additional information but only represents that this fall is the result of the “power of fear of tariffs in the market”. A Global Landscape of Uncertainty Trump's announcement has generated a ripple effect in international markets. In the United States, investors are skeptical about the economy's ability to withstand these shocks, which has prompted a search for refuge in assets considered safer, such as Treasury bonds and defensive sectors (consumer staples, healthcare, telecommunications and utilities). Uncertainty is spreading globally: the Nasdaq has fallen by 5.4% and the Nasdaq 100 has lost 17% of its value since its peak in February. In international markets, indices such as the Nikkei 225 and the TOPIX in Japan have registered declines of 3.3% and 4.2% respectively, demonstrating the global scope of the instability. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:USA500Short
by ActivTrades
Head & Shoulder Breakdown: Will S&P 500 Drop Another 10%?● The S&P 500 has experienced significant volatility recently, mainly due to President Donald Trump's announcement of new tariffs. ● On April 3, 2025, the index saw a nearly 5% drop, its worst single-day loss in five years. ● The recent price action suggests that the index has broken below the neckline of the Head and Shoulder pattern, indicating a potential continuation of the downward trend. ◉ Key support levels to watch ● 1st Support - 5,200 - 5,250 ● 2nd Support - 4,950 - 5,000
SP:SPXShort
by NaranjCapital
Trump Goes 'Cynosure' of All Eyes as He Walked Into '1930' RoomThe Striking Parallels Between Trump's 2025 Tariffs and the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 The recent trade policies under President Trump's second administration bear remarkable similarities to the controversial Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, both in approach and potential consequences. These parallels offer important historical lessons about protectionist trade policies. Protectionist Foundations and Scope Both trade initiatives share fundamentally protectionist motivations aimed at shielding American industries from foreign competition. The Smoot-Hawley Act increased import duties by approximately 20% with the initial goal of protecting struggling U.S. farmers from European agricultural imports. Similarly, Trump's 2025 trade agenda explicitly aims at "backing the United States away from integration with the global economy and steering the country toward becoming more self-contained". What began as targeted protections in both eras quickly expanded in scope. While Smoot-Hawley initially focused on agricultural protections, industry lobbyists soon demanded similar protections for their sectors. Trump's tariffs have followed a comparable pattern, beginning with specific sectors but rapidly expanding to affect a broad range of imports, with projected tariffs exceeding $1.4 trillion by April 2025—nearly four times the $380 billion imposed during his first administration. Specific Tariff Examples The parallel implementation approaches are notable: Trump imposed a 25% global tariff on steel and aluminum products effective March 12, 2025 Trump raised tariffs on all Chinese imports to 20% on March 4, 2025 Trump imposed 25% tariffs on most Canadian and Mexican goods Smoot-Hawley increased overall import duties by approximately 20% Smoot-Hawley raised the average import tax on foreign goods to about 40% (following the Fordney-McCumber Act of 1922) Global Retaliation and Economic Consequences Perhaps the most striking similarity is the international backlash. The Smoot-Hawley tariffs triggered retaliatory measures from over 25 countries, dramatically reducing global trade and worsening the Great Depression. Trump's 2025 tariffs have already prompted counter-tariffs from major trading partners: China responded with 15% tariffs on U.S. coal and liquefied natural gas, and 10% on oil and agricultural machines Canada implemented 25% tariffs on approximately CA$30 billion of U.S. goods The European Union announced tariffs on €4.5 billion of U.S. consumer goods and €18 billion of U.S. steel and agricultural products Expert Opposition Both policies faced significant opposition from economic experts. More than 1,000 economists urged President Hoover to veto the Smoot-Hawley Act. Trump's 2025 tariffs? Reaction is coming yet... Potential Economic Impact The historical record suggests caution. The Smoot-Hawley Act is "now widely blamed for worsening the severity of the Great Depression in the U.S. and around the world". Trump's "more audacious intervention" similarly carries "potentially seismic consequences for jobs, prices, diplomatic relations and the global trading system". These striking parallels between trade policies nearly a century apart demonstrate that economic nationalism and retaliatory trade cycles remain persistent challenges in international commerce, with historical lessons that remain relevant today. Stock market Impact Just watch the graph.. -- Best wishes, Your Beloved @PandorraResearch Team 😎
SP:SPX
by PandorraResearch
The Trade War Strikes Back: Market Reeling from Trump’s Tariff MThe markets are not taking Trump’s new round of tariffs lightly. As the S&P 500 dips sharply, investors are reacting to the growing tension between the U.S. and China over trade policy. The new tariffs have ignited fears of a prolonged trade war, sending shockwaves through tech-heavy sectors and dragging major names like NASDAQ:NVDA , NASDAQ:MSFT , NASDAQ:AAPL , and NASDAQ:AMZN deep into the red. 📉 What we're seeing: SP500 is breaking recent support with heavy volume. Tech sector is leading the sell-off, especially chipmakers and global exporters. Uncertainty is pushing investors toward safety, further increasing volatility. 🧠 Key takeaway: This is more than a dip—it’s policy risk priced in real time. Until there's clarity, traders should prepare for more erratic moves. Short-term sentiment has clearly flipped bearish. 💬 Are you buying the fear or staying out of the storm?
VANTAGE:SP500FT
by SmartSignalss
Opening (IRA): SPX May 16th 5130/5160/5850/5880 Iron Condor... for a 10.20 credit. Comments: High IVR/IV >21. Hesitant to add more long delta here, so going delta neutral in SPX and structuring the trade such that I receive one-third the width of the wings (30) in credit. Metrics: Buying Power Effect: 19.80 Max Profit: 10.20 ROC at Max: 51.52% 50% Max: 5.10 ROC at 50% Max: 25.8% Will generally look to take profit at 50% max, rolling down oppositional side on side test, but won't hesitate to take profit quickly if IV crushes in dramatically post "Liberation Day."
SP:SPX
by NaughtyPines
Strong Buying Zone with Confident The Green 4h Zone Acts as Strong Buying Zone. The Blue Zone POC/IC (Point Of Interest or Institutional Candle) is weak Support now since it been tested before. The Fresh Zone is the Green 4h which acts as Decent Support Zone. We have two Scenarios indicating Buyers step in Strongly Within Green Buying Zone: Scenarios One: strong buying volume reversal Candle. Scenarios Two: Fake Break-Out of green Buying Zone. Both indicate Buyers Stepping in strongly. Once One Showed Up a safe entry would be 50% Fibo from the buying Candle at 1h TF. Regards, Take care.
SP:SPX
by Faisalzor