USA500 trade ideas
If SPX Was to Make a Slow Topping PatternI've been super bearish indices for a while but heading into the 5000 area in SPX I am becoming increasingly bullish.
I think in the extremely bearish setup we bounce to 5500 and if we are actually making a big major top, then it's viable we swipe at the highs a few times.
Liquidity ... and all that.
This could potentially be a long time of choppy action around the topping zone.
If that's going to happen there's epic bear trades coming in the future but to prevent from becoming exhausted as a bear before they happened - you'd be wanting to bank in the rally.
Have plans to pick up an assortment of bets on a new high being made within 3 months somewhere a little under 5100. And picking p spot longs at some point which I can trail stops on and wait to see if the bull trap levels fail.
I do think at the very least the min risk bears have into 5000 is a 10% bull trap. I'd be very careful as a bear now.
Low Here Would be Consistent with a New High Coming Making a low in the general area in which we trade now would be highly consistent with a bullish trend development.
If this is the low around 5200, then I think it's quite likely we see a new high.
Profits should be locked in on all previous bear entries given.
If the local downtrend breaks here, the bear move is likely over.
The next shoe to dropIn my mind the rally was a C wave and likely ended yesterday. I would expect bigger players to get out while prices are still high. Target 4600 - lower Monthly Bollinger Band area. If they get over 5400 something else is happening and I will update.
The Bear's Dilemma: Bull trap styles and bets. Anyone of a bearish persuasion always runs into the same issue when we rip like this.
If you know bull trap formation, you know they form like this. It's always tempting to fade- but if you are objective about whether you'll be right at all as a bear and also consider the different style of bull traps, you have to be aware of the risk. Because your idealised signal is stupidly strong move up, but this can also happen when a new high will be made.
Successfully dealing with bull traps in such a way as to profit big when right and do okay even if not, you have to think ahead.
If you follow my work you'll know I have a rather static style as to how I try to do this. When we're dropping into big supports, I always tend to discuss these different types of bull traps and I always try to buy where I think the low is. Citing that not only am I doing it for the immediate chance to make money long- but it's an important part of my bear plan later.
I know if I get the first trade right even just betting on a rally to the shallow retracement level, I catch between half and a third of the move up. This is going to cover my risk for what I'll spend if I get on all the bear traps and all of those setups fail. It allows me to get on them on with increasing RR. More scope for profit with a well predefined risk.
Into a rally I always look to fade the shallow bull trap. Very often that at least produces a dip. So I can often position for a 1:10 or better RR trade and generally will breakeven on the attempt if I get it wrong. Only in the times of extreme run-away moves does this fail. And I accept those are conditions I should expect to lose in.
If and when I think I am seeing signs of the shallow trap failing I get long targeting the 76 trap. Hitting this trade can be extremely lucrative and it allows me to either be sure a net profit on the swing or have the option to size my bear bets bigger aiming for a big jackpot if it works out.
When buying I consider all the main ops/risks.
Here's the new high move mentioned into the drop.
Here's the classic 76 which would also present as a head and shoulders (and butterfly) pattern now.
When I plan my bull trap trading I am always wanting to buy at the green arrows and short at the red.
I also do this with the assumption I'll be entirely wrong and lose all of my bear bets, and I try to structure it in such a way that will be massively net profitable if I hit my bull trades.
Bulls tend to show up on my posts being somewhat rude any time I do this- but this is outperforming buy and hold. At worse, I'm level when we get back to the top. Usually, I'm considerably ahead. And in the one instance the market makes the big reversal - I know I'm going to be left standing. Perhaps standing in very good stead if I get it right.
Using this basic template I find extremely useful for dealing with bull trap betting.
It provides a functional and practical framework to be able to benefit from most types of moves. Doesn't pretend to know the future. Is essentially direction agnostic. Can be quantified as profitable with backtesting against both rallies that make a new high and crash events - often with extreme outlier results in crash events.
Whatever happens, and whatever news drives it, this is the plan I'll execute on so long as the market moves in a way relatively similar to my template.
Trump Tariff Bloodbath!SPX Trump Tarrif Bloodbath…
The SPX just experienced a brutal 21% drop from its previous all-time highs, wiping out an entire year’s worth of gains in just a few short weeks.
However, the market has found support at a critical level — the golden pocket between the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels. This area also aligns with the Anchored VWAP, offering solid support around the 4900 level. Despite the recent turbulence, we’re still holding within the rising parallel channel that’s been supporting the broader bullish trend.
Holding this confluence zone (Fib + AVWAP) would be a strong signal for a potential continuation higher.
That said, I’ve highlighted a potential capitulation zone between 4450 and 4070. While reaching that level would require a powerful impulsive correction from here, it’s wise to be aware of what’s still on the table.
We’ve also formed a bullish shark fin, and the RSI briefly dipped below the oversold 20 level. Historically, when the weekly RSI hits that extreme, it’s often marked excellent entry points.
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves — we also need to consider the pattern seen in the last major correction: a bounce to the 30 RSI level, followed by a lower low that formed bullish divergence. I’m watching closely for a similar setup, which would suggest another leg down after this interim rally.
Key resistance now sits near the 50-week SMA, currently between 5480 and 5680. Both the 21 and 50 SMAs are starting to curl down — something to watch, as they could act as headwinds going forward.
One last thing: the last time we lost the 50 SMA on the weekly, it took nearly 260 days of correction before we finally reclaimed it (that’s the green line on the chart).
Bottom line — buckle up. If we lose the lower bound of the rising channel (around 4900 on a weekly close), I’m expecting more downside ahead.
US500 Drops 22% in 7 Weeks-What's Next?US500 Drops 22% in 7 Weeks-What's Next?
On February 20, 2025, the US500 index reached a record high of 6147, a level it had never touched before.
Many expected Trump to support the stock market further, but instead, his tariffs and ongoing market disruptions led to the opposite outcome.
In just 1.5 months, the US500 dropped by nearly 22%, hitting a strong support zone near 4810. Buyers stepped in at this level, helping the index recover 8%.
From a technical perspective, the US500 appears poised for a bullish wave from this zone. However, its future direction heavily depends on Trump’s tariffs and his economic plans for the United States.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
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S&P 500 ( INTRADAY ANALYSIS ) - Thursday 10th AprilS&P 500 can remain volatile on Thursday's trading session. Even then, I'm expecting a positive closing . Support on the downside would be 5396, and if it slips below 5396, then it can fall upto 5351-5294. On the upside, upon crossing 5498, we can expect good upside upto 5607-5636.
Could See a Huge Pop in a Bull Trap I think the odds of this turning into a spectacular short are unusually high for indices but even if so there could be some massive stop gunning to come first.
I've a big bearish bias into a rip but it would likely be exceptional rally if I have the idea right.
Picked up some longs targeting 5800. Ideally looking to make some profit and use it to bankroll the short attempt.
Would dump these quite quickly if structure broke. ATR is too big to mess about.
S&P INTRADAY oversold bounce backUS stock futures dropped and the dollar weakened as concerns grew that the trade war could cause lasting economic damage. This came despite a surge in European and Asian equities, which followed a major rally on Wall Street after President Trump unexpectedly paused most of his tariffs. The move lifted global risk sentiment temporarily, but also isolated China as the primary target of Trump’s trade offensive, limiting Beijing’s options for near-term de-escalation. In response, Chinese leaders are meeting today to consider additional economic stimulus.
Meanwhile, U.S. Treasuries gained as investors sought safety following a volatile session. The Federal Reserve, for its part, signalled it plans to keep interest rates steady, aiming to prevent tariff-driven inflation even if the labour market weakens. Officials have publicly downplayed the need for rate cuts, choosing to prioritize stability over pre-emptive easing.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 5509
Resistance Level 2: 5660
Resistance Level 3: 5787
Support Level 1: 4815
Support Level 2: 4700
Support Level 3: 4585
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SPX resistance is clear for the dayIntraday Update: The SPX stalled at previous (flag) support at the 5500 level as noted in the end of day analysis. The "line in the sand" has been drawn intraday for the session now.
A break above this level would continue yesterday's epic squeeze
US500 Historical Rallies & Pullbacks with a Potential ProjectionI’ve observed the US500’s performance over the years, marking rallies with a blue line and pullbacks with a yellow line. Looking at the chart, a systematic repetition of these movements emerges, which, at first glance, seems to follow a recognizable pattern.
Specifically, I’ve cloned the blue line from the rally that started on 03/23/2020 and ended on 12/20/2021, now represented by a green line, to hypothesize a potential future rally. This clone is based on the duration of previous pullbacks:
The first pullback, before the 2020 rally, began on 02/20/2020 and ended on 03/23/2020.
The second pullback, the current one, started on 02/17/2025 and might conclude around 04/07/2025, potentially paving the way for a new rally.
the angle of those pullbacks is almost identic
This "snapshot" observation suggests we could be nearing a turning point. Of course, this is just a hypothesis based on historical patterns, and I encourage cross-referencing it with other indicators or analyses. What are your thoughts?
Bear Pattern Often Would Spike One More Time The swings of the week so far have created a giant pending butterfly- which may be the most important setup we've seen in SPX for a long long time - certainly the most important during this drop.
A butterfly here in its book context is a bearish pattern, but if you follow my work you'll know I always say harmonics are binary decision levels. If they work, the accurately forecast the reversal zone and then often the implied swing to follow- when they fail, they tend to indicate strong moves in the other direction.
Off a setup like this, a failure of the butterfly would be failure of the downtrend.
A successful butterfly would be a failure of the bigger overall uptrend.
It's a high stakes moment.
But bears should be aware we could be 98% right here and still face a brutal stop run.
Protecting profits from higher entries now. Ideally want to size up into a spike.
S&P500 Tariff comeback may be starting a whole new Bull Cycle!The S&P500 index (SPX) is making a remarkable comeback following the non-stop sell-off since mid-February as, following the tariff 90-day pause, it is staging a massive rebound just before touching the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
Since that was almost at the bottom of its bullish channel while the 2W RSI hit its own Higher Lows trend-line, this can technically initiate a 2-year Bull Cycle similar to those that started on the October 2022 and March 2020 bottoms (green circles).
The fact that the current correction has been almost as quick as the March 2020 COVID crash, may indicate that the recovery could be just as strong. In any event, it appears that a 7200 Target on a 2-year horizon is quite plausible, being close to he top of the bullish channel, while also under the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, which got hit during both previous Bullish Legs.
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Correction has begun in SPXWe can almost say that 4800 has been touched and given that the downward movement was very fast, this wave is most likely the A-wave of a triangle and the upward waves that are forming after the 90-day suspension of the stalls are considered as a corrective wave.
Previous SPX Analysis
Trump Pump Just Broke the Charts12% Up in a Day. Now What?
What a difference a headline makes.
Monday:
Markets dump. Panic. Retail sells the low.
We hit our bearish targets like clockwork.
Wednesday:
Markets explode like they found a cheat code.
SPX rallies 9.5% in a day.
Nasdaq? A completely unhinged 12% up.
All because… tariffs might be paused again.
You can’t make this stuff up.
But you can trade it.
When Euphoria and Edge Collide
The Trump Pump Parade
After last week’s fake-news-induced dump, we now have headline euphoria.
No earnings beat. No rate cut. No macro shift.
Just one rumour:
“Trump might pause tariffs.”
Cue the biggest one-day rally since 1933.
Nasdaq: +12%
SPX: +9.5%
SPX now kissing the 5400 bull trigger level
Financial media?
Throwing a rave.
Retail?
FOMOing back into the top.
It’s madness.
But it’s not structure.
The System Trader’s Reality
Meanwhile, in the AntiVestor camp…
The bear swing is still on but under review.
Why? Because we trade levels, not vibes.
And 5400 has always been our pivot.
We’re now sitting right on it, with overnight futures starting to drift lower – like the market just realised it left the oven on.
The decision zone is here.
Hold 5400?
It’s time to shift gears.
Bull thesis activates. Tag ‘n Turn setups. Bull Pulse Bars. GEX Bulls Eye trades.
Lose 5400?
We go right back to feeding the bears.
It’s not emotional. It’s mechanical.
This is what system trading looks like.
---
Expert Insights: The Market Owes You Nothing
Mistake:
Getting emotional after missing a rally or overstaying a short.
Fix:
Use a system with defined levels.
5400 was always the line.
You don’t need to guess the pivot. You just need to trade it when it confirms.
This rally may be overblown.
But until the market proves otherwise, you don’t fight the tape – you ride it with structure.
---
Fun Fact
The last time the Nasdaq moved more than 10% in a day?
March 13th, 2020 – the height of COVID panic buying.
That rally was followed by… a further drop.
Then a V-bottom.
Then a massive bull market.
So… is this the start of something new?
Or just another overcaffeinated bounce?
History says: Don’t decide early. Let price confirm.
Nasdaq and S&p500 short: Completion of B waveI mentioned in my previous analysis that we are waiting for a short (the previous one was a long-then-short linked with this idea). I did not post any short idea yesterday after that NOT because I am good and recognize a double combination. It's really because I was too busy with work and I am glad my last was a long-then-short.
Back to this, remember that the huge volatility has caused the points in the chart to compress and thus even though the stop loss looks small, it is actually still quite a number of points away. So my suggestion is to manage your size and keep it small relative to your account.
Good luck!
Fear and Greed: How Extreme Emotions Can Wreck Your TradesThere’s an old saying on Wall Street: Markets are driven by just two emotions — fear and greed. It’s been quoted so many times it’s practically cliché, but like most clichés, it’s got a thick slice of truth baked in.
Fear makes you sell the bottom. Greed makes you buy the top. Together, they’re the dysfunctional couple that wrecks your portfolio, sets your confidence on fire, and leaves you staring at your trading screen, wallowing in disappointment.
But here’s the good news: you’re not alone. Everyone — from the newbie scalper with a $500 account to the fund manager with a Bloomberg terminal and a caffeine drip — fights these exact same emotional demons.
Let’s break down how fear and greed mess with your trades, and more importantly, what to do about it.
The Greed Trap: From Champagne Dreams to Margin Calls
Add some more to this one… this one’s going to the moon . Suddenly, you’re maxing out leverage on a hot altcoin because your cousin’s barber said it's “the next Solana.”
This is how traders end up buying tops. Not because they lack information — we’ve got more charts, market data , and indicators than ever before — but because they chase the feeling. The high. The fantasy of catching a once-in-a-lifetime move. Safe to say that’s not investing, that’s fantasy trading.
Greed doesn’t show up in your P&L right away. At first, it may reward you. You get a few wins. Maybe you double your account in a week. You start browsing the million-dollar houses. You post a couple of wins on X. You’re unstoppable… until you’re not.
Then comes the inevitable slap. The market reverses. You didn’t take profits because “it’s just a pullback.” Your unrealized gains evaporate. You panic. You sell the bottom. And just like that, you’re back where you started — only now with a bruised ego and fewer chips on the table.
The Fear Spiral: Paralysis, Panic, and the Art of Missing Every Rally
Fear doesn’t need a market crash to show up. Sometimes all it takes is a bad night’s sleep and a red candle.
Fear tells you to cut winners early — just in case. Fear reminds you of every losing trade you’ve ever taken, every blown stop loss, every time you told yourself, “I knew I should’ve stayed out.”
It’s what makes you exit a long position at break-even, only to watch it rip 20% after you’re out. It’s what keeps you on the sidelines during the best days of the year. It’s what turns potential gains into chronic hesitation.
And the worst part? Fear disguises itself as “discipline.” You think you’re being cautious, but you’re really just self-sabotaging under the banner of risk management. Yes, there's a difference between being prudent and being petrified. One saves your capital. The other strangles it.
The Greed-Fear Cycle: The Emotional Roundabout That Never Ends
Here’s how the emotional hamster wheel usually goes:
You start with greed. You chase something because it looks like easy money.
You get smacked by the market. Now you’re afraid.
You hesitate. You miss the recovery.
You get FOMO. You jump back in… late.
The cycle repeats. Only now your account is lighter, and your confidence is shot.
Wash. Rinse. Regret. Repeat.
This cycle is what turns many promising traders into burnt-out bagholders. It’s not a lack of intelligence or strategy — it’s the inability to manage emotions in a game where emotions are everything.
The Emotional Gym
You can’t eliminate fear and greed — they’re wired into our monkey brain. But you can train your emotional responses the same way you train a muscle.
How? Structure, repetition, and brutal honesty.
Start with a trading journal . Not a Dear Diary, but a cold, clinical log of what you did and why. Include your emotional state. Were you excited? Anxious? Overconfident? Bored? (Yes, boredom is a silent killer. It’s how people end up revenge trading gold futures at 2AM.)
Review it weekly. Look for patterns. Did you always overtrade after three green trades in a row? Did your losses happen when you broke your own rules? Bingo. Now you have something to fix.
The Rules Are the Ritual
Every seasoned trader eventually realizes this: rules are freedom. The more emotion you remove from the decision-making process, the more consistent your results.
Set rules for:
Entry criteria
Risk per trade
Stop placement
When to sit out
Then — and this is key — follow them even when you don’t feel like it. Especially when you don’t feel like it. If it feels uncomfortable, that’s usually a sign you’re on the right path. You’re breaking your old habits.
And if you break a rule? Cool. Own it. Log it. Learn from it. No need to self-flagellate, but don’t pretend it didn’t happen. This is the emotional weightlifting that builds your trading spine.
Story Time: The Trader Who Cried “Breakout”
Let me tell you about Dave. Dave loved breakouts. He’d buy every single one, no matter the volume, structure, or trend. His logic? If it breaks the line, it’s going up. Simple.
One week, Dave hit it big on a meme stock that doubled in a day. His greed kicked in hard. He started adding leverage, sizing up, swinging for the fences.
You can guess what happened. Three fakeouts later, Dave blew half his account. So he stopped trading. Fear took over.
Weeks passed. He watched from the sidelines as clean setups came and went. When he finally got back in, he was so timid he under-sized every position and exited too early. He made nothing — but the emotional damage cost him more than the red trades ever did.
Dave didn’t lose because he lacked a strategy. He lost because he was letting emotions drive. And when fear and greed are in the driver’s seat, they don’t use the brakes.
Be the Trader Your Future Self Will Thank (Not Tank)
Markets may sometimes be chaos wrapped in noise wrapped in hype (as we’ve seen with the recent drama around Trump’s tariffs ). There will always be something to fear, and always something to chase. But if you can stay calm while others are panic-buying Nike stock NYSE:NKE or rage-selling the S&P 500 SP:SPX , you’ve already got an edge.
The best traders aren’t fearless or greedless. They’re just better at recognizing when those emotions show up — and they don’t let them steer the ship. They’ve built processes to trade through uncertainty, not react to it.
So next time you feel that itch to click “Buy” at the top or “Sell” at the bottom, pause. Ask yourself: Is this my setup — or is this just emotion pretending to be insight? Take another look at the Screener , scroll through the latest News , and take a minute to think it over.
Final Thoughts: Feelings Aren’t Signals
Trading is emotional — but trading on emotion is a fast track to regret.
Fear will always be there. So will greed. But you don’t have to let them wreck your trades. Build systems. Log your trades. Know yourself. That’s how you survive the jungle with your capital — and sanity — intact.
And if nothing else, remember this: Warren Buffett didn’t get rich by panic-buying breakouts on a Tuesday morning.
Let's hear it from you now — how do you deal with fear and greed in your trades? Or are you still fighting them in the wild?
Trump Delays Tariffs for 90 Days. The S&P 500 Rebounds SharplyTrump Delays Tariffs for 90 Days. The S&P 500 Rebounds Sharply
As shown in the chart of the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), the index is currently trading near the 5,500 level.
This result is highly encouraging, considering that as recently as yesterday morning, the index was hovering around 4,900.
Why Have Stocks Risen?
The strong rebound seen yesterday evening was triggered by a statement from the US President — he announced a 90-day delay in the implementation of wide-ranging global trade tariffs, which had originally been unveiled on 2 April and led to a sharp drop in the index (as indicated by the arrow).
However, this does not apply to China, for which tariffs were not delayed but increased. "Due to the lack of respect China has shown towards global markets, I am raising the tariff imposed on China by the United States of America to 125%, effective immediately," said Donald Trump, according to media reports.
Overall, US stock markets responded positively to the news, and Goldman Sachs economists have withdrawn their US recession forecasts.
Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen)
Despite yesterday’s sharp rebound, the stock market remains in a downtrend (as indicated by the red channel).
From a bullish perspective:
→ A Double Bottom pattern (A–B) has formed around the 4,900 level;
→ Price has moved into the upper half of the channel.
From a bearish perspective:
→ Bulls must overcome key resistance near the psychological 5,000 level;
→ While tariffs have been delayed, they have not been cancelled. As such, the risk of an escalating trade war is likely to continue putting pressure on the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) in the coming months.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
SPX Aiming Lower LowsHi there,
The S&P 500 has pushed below the significant resistance level of 5821.54, with an immediate target at 5370.17 before reaching major support around the 5218 region. We could potentially see a further drop to 4500, with 4719.87 on the way.
It will require monitoring, and the bias is at 4026.79.
Happy Trading,
K.
Not trading advice
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): LONG to resistance area of 5445.2.Explaining what is happening in terms of wave theory is quite difficult, but always possible. Of course, geopolitics has been affecting the price a lot lately, but even in this chaos there are regularities.
Let's take a look at the wave markup. I believe that there is a big correction going on at the moment. Most likely it is not finished yet and has just started to form wave “B”, which means that wave “C” is coming, but I still want to see an upward movement to the resistance area at 5445.2. The price has been in a downtrend for too long and I think a correction is very likely. Well, let's see.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Potential Short Move to 5000This idea is in accordance with the Price slipping out of the cloud but closes below it and with strong downwards trends over a few months, price has retraced to the golden ratio zone so it may be a good opportunity to sell right now after confirmation of a downwards trend due to this price being a key level. Hence it could be a potential short position, I'm not in the trade but this is a likely outcome from the technicals and fundamentals
