Get started
SP 500 Cash IndexSP 500 Cash IndexSP 500 Cash Index

SP 500 Cash Index

No trades
See on Supercharts
Overview News
Ideas
Discussions Technicals Seasonals

USA500 trade ideas

S&P 500 still testing 5,000Some participants in stock markets had hoped for negotiations to make some progress in the first week of April and at least some countries to be exempted quickly from the latest round of tariffs. However, now it’s a full-scale trade war: China in particular, under 104% tariffs, is very unlikely to back down. The main uncertainty for markets now is less how major countries such as China will continue to react and more whether the American government has discipline of policy to stick to what was announced. So far there hasn’t been a full-day close below 5,000, which suggests that this area is still a support and it’d be possible to see another attempt at a bounce soon. However, it’s important to consider the bigger picture: the current retracement has barely touched the highs from late 2021 and early 2022 plus the losses in the last two months haven’t so far been bigger than in early 2022, just faster. A very obvious bullish interpretation of the chart would be inverted head and shoulders, suggesting a return to 6,000 around this time next month. Perhaps obviously, that’s very questionable given how quickly the trade situation can change. Traders also need to monitor the upcoming earnings season in the USA, particularly banks’ reports on Friday 11 April, and sentiment on the Fed’s upcoming meetings. This is my personal opinion, not the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.
FX:SPX500
by Michael_Stark_Exness
Retests, Rallies, and Bear Swings LoadingYou know what’s better than nailing a trade? Not having to flip, flop, hedge, unhedge, reverse, scalp, and do the full Hokey Cokey just to survive. Today was one of those days – the kind where the plan just works. Futures? Wild. Down 143, up 188, then back to flat - all before most traders finished their first sip of coffee. But while price whipsaws, I’m not chasing shadows. I’ve got my line out. My bear swing is on. And I’m just waiting for the exit alert to ding. --- Let’s break down what happened: Yesterday’s tariff chaos acted like a Mr. Miyagi market prank. “Tariff on.” “Wait, just kidding.” “Tariff off.” The move up? Landed exactly at Monday's news spike and the days 5250 gamma flip level – which we had marked and mapped. Perfect resistance. Retest. Rejection. Bear pulse bars triggered. And now the swing is on. Trade location: Dialled in. Directional bias: still bearish under 5400. Execution: GEX levels + pulse bar structure. Retests, Not Reversals Tuesdays action also gave us something sneaky: An intraday retest of the recent lows. Now, if you’ve been around since the 2020 V-turn era, you’ve seen this before. Panic sell. Sharp bounce. Retest the low to check for real conviction. Then make the real move. This retest could be the prelude to a bull thesis - but not yet. Structure comes first. Bias second. Until we break clean above 5400, I stay bear-biased. --- Expert Insights: Don’t Trade Like You’re in a Dance-Off The Mistake: Overtrading volatility. Flipping bias every 15 minutes. Trading like it’s a talent show. The Fix: Pick your structure. Define your invalidation. Enter once, scale in if needed, and let it play out. No need to “turn around and shake it all about.” Leave the Hokey Cokey for weddings. --- Fun Fact During the 2015–2020 bull run, the average false breakout-to-retest cycle happened within 3 sessions after a panic reversal. Translation? Markets often retest panic lows before deciding the next big move. This isn’t new. It’s just noisy. And totally tradable. ...Another fun fact Did you know? The 104% tariff imposed by the U.S. on Chinese imports is among the highest in modern history, reminiscent of protectionist measures not seen since the early 20th century.
SP:SPXShort
by MrPhilNewton
SPX500 Short - Due to tariffs impactMarket overview and macro outlook 1. Tariffs, tariffs, tariffs - The 104% tariffs response to China's response and possible 25% pharmaceutical tariffs are weighing down the markets - Markets are expected to keep going down until some news of relief is announced 2. Upcoming news - FOMC meeting on Wed - probably to the downside as it should be comments on keeping rates high to combat the tariffs uncertainty - US CPI/Unemployment on Thu - TBD -- If high CPI - good for equities as it raises probability of interest rates cut -- If high unemployment - good for equities as it raises probability of interest rates cut - US Core PPI on Fri - TBD -- If high PPI - good for equities as it raises probability of interest rates cut Thus, I have a bearish view of the market and look to take Short positions here. Technical View Continuing the downtrend from yesterday Limit short position at 4910, which is right above a major psychological level. Going for a 1:1 trade. - SL: 4976 (Above the highs of a pullback in the downtrend) - TP: 4842 (Slightly above the lows of the previous trading zone) Execution 1. Limit order - SL: 4976 (Above the highs of a pullback in the downtrend) - TP: 4842 (Slightly above the lows of the previous trading zone) 2. Key note: - To watch out for news on tariffs action by Trump, EU and China. Focus on China, then EU then US as per the timezones for today. 3. TF: - Will close by Friday if price does not retrace back to entry level by then. Results of ideas thus far: Number of trades: 3 WR: 33% Profit: 1.9R Notes: This is currently for personal practice to write out trade ideas. Feedback is welcome, and please don't mind if none of this makes sense.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by yuhaocooper
Could the price bounce from here?S&P500 is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 4,963.98 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 4,800.67 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level. Take profit: 5,158.53 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:SP500Long
by VantageMarkets
The S&P 500 Has Officially Entered a Bear MarketThe technical definition is simple: ✅ A decline of 20% or more from recent all-time highs. That’s exactly where we are. 🔻 The S&P 500 has been free-falling and just hit that 20% mark. 🔴 The index is on pace to close the day deep in red — confirming what many feared: We are in a bear market. 👀 What does this mean? Expect continued volatility, emotional markets, and high sensitivity to macroeconomic news. Historically, bear markets can last from a few months to over a year, depending on policy response and investor sentiment. While painful, bear markets often plant the seeds of the next bull run 🌱 — but that doesn’t mean we’re there yet. 🧠 Time to zoom out, stay informed, and trade with caution. Capital preservation becomes just as important as returns. What’s your strategy during bear markets? Averaging down? Hedging? Sitting in cash? #SP500 #BearMarket #StockMarketCrash #TradingStrategy #MarketUpdate #InvestSmart
VANTAGE:SP500Short
by SmartSignalss
Tweet and idea (you can use it for prediction)Tweet and idea (you can use it for prediction) 💡 This trading idea is based on analyzing market reactions to news and tweets from influential figures — especially in the context of cryptocurrencies and stocks prone to speculative spikes. 📊 Core Strategy: The model tracks sudden price movements triggered by public statements (e.g., tweets from Elon Musk, breaking news, etc.). After the initial reaction, a retracement or continuation pattern often forms, which can be used to enter a trade. 🧠 How to use it: 1. Monitor the news flow or social media activity related to the asset. 2. Identify the initial impulse on the chart (high volume, sharp movement). 3. Wait for consolidation or a minor pullback. 4. Enter on breakout or bounce, using a tight stop-loss. 📌 Best suited for high-volatility assets with frequent hype triggers (e.g., DOGE, TSLA, BTC).
VANTAGE:SP500Short
by elukonina
S&P - WEEKLY SUMMARY 31.3–4.4 / FORECAST📉 S&P500 – 12th week of the base cycle (average 20 weeks), which started on the pivot forecast of January 13, currently in the 2nd phase. This bear is completing the prolonged 50-week cycle and the 4-year cycle. The delay in the cycles wasn’t an exception, as the maximum durations remained within statistical norms. Target levels are given in the post “Bear 2025 in Numbers”. Preliminary timing forecasts for the end of this base cycle were shared in the post from March 23. ☝️ I believe the presidential cycle played a role in the delay of the 4-year cycle, which was supposed to bottom in October 2024 or January 2025 based on timing. Markets simply weren’t ready to fall under a Democratic president. ⚠️ Keep in mind that the end of the current base cycle will mark the beginning of a new 4-year cycle. The start of any cycle, even a bearish one, is always bullish, and the start of a new 4-year cycle could be very energetic. But for how long? Interesting developments are likely in spring 2026 during the final stage of the 7-year crisis cycle. ⚠️ We are holding the short position opened on the extreme forecast of March 24 — the midpoint of Mercury retrograde. The next extreme forecast is on April 7. The next pivot forecast is on April 14 — the end of the Venus retrograde period, which has been very active this year.
CBOE:SPX
by irinawest
US500 Panic sell, Major support, psychological level LONG Hello fellow traders, Yesterday was one of the darkest days for some of you who invested in market and had high hopes and once the price gone over certain levels the machines started selling selling selling and who knows what Monday will bring? Maybe on Sunday some salvation will come from USA! hahaha! Anyway, trading and chart wise- this is a major support zone for sp500 5000!! and look how the price has hit the trend line and look how the RSI is oversold and look...this is a Daily chart! I like going from daily to 4h and 1h intervals, Daily oversold is a good signal for a reversal at least for NOW, correction faze to 5400 perhaps and will see, for now my bet is on the Long position with the target 5,400 This is not a trading advise, just an idea and wait!- s/l advisable here I would say below 4650 being win to loss ratio slightly above 1:1
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by lb-counts
SPX In Free Fall. How Much More Pain Do We Have Coming?Hey my fellow traders and followers, hope all is well with you and your trading? Let me shed some light on the dark times ahead. I know some of you are asking ; How much more pain do we have to endure? Well, I'm here to give my opinion on what I see in the daily SPX/USD chart. Like it or not we have another leg down to go. Sorry. We have on the chart a Head & Shoulder, or Inverted V pattern, Bearflag pattern after the first round of distribution. Second distribution will show in another leg down to 5343.4 area which will be our TP-1. TP-2 is ready for it?------ 4981 area. Long ways to go yet. I see this playing out until anywhere from April 23 to April 30th. Whether you want to believe this possibility or not, please be careful with your bias. Remember the Daily and Weekly are still bearish so understand the depth we can fall. My job is to tip you off on what is possible. Until next time please trade carefully if you choose as the market is in wide wide price swings that keep hitting retail trader's stops in both directions. If you are going to trade, trade the smaller TF's to avoid blowing up your account. Best of luck in all your trades. Cheers!
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Trade-Farmer
2
Wall Street's Difficulties: How It Impacts the Forex Market Hello, I am Andrea Russo, Forex Trader, and today I want to discuss how the recent difficulties on Wall Street are influencing the global forex market. The Storm on Wall Street In recent days, Wall Street has experienced significant turbulence, with major indices sharply declining. This scenario has been driven by several factors, including: Rising Interest Rates in the U.S.: The Federal Reserve, concerned about persistent inflation, has hinted at potential monetary tightening. Geopolitical Tensions: Global uncertainties are unsettling investors and reducing risk appetite. Signs of Economic Slowdown: Recent macroeconomic data have fueled fears of an imminent recession. These elements have resulted in a decline in investor confidence, leading to heavy sell-offs in equity markets. Effects on the Forex Market The repercussions of this turbulence are already manifesting in the forex market. Here are the key implications: Strengthening of the U.S. Dollar: The dollar has gained momentum as a safe-haven currency, particularly against emerging market currencies like the Brazilian real and Turkish lira. Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc Rising: These haven currencies have seen increased demand, drawing monetary flows. Pressure on Emerging Market Currencies: Reduced risk appetite has triggered sell-offs in the major currencies of emerging markets. What Should Forex Traders Do Now? In such a volatile environment, it's crucial for traders to: Analyze the Data: Keep a close watch on U.S. economic indicators and Federal Reserve announcements. Diversify Risk: Consider hedging strategies to reduce exposure to volatility. Observe Safe Havens: Explore trading opportunities involving the yen and Swiss franc, which remain stable during uncertainty.
ACTIVTRADES:USA500Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
Is the U.S. Stock Market Forming a Bottom? (April 7th 2025, YES) Is the U.S. Stock Market Forming a Bottom? (April 7th 2025 Analysis) - by Yuri Duursma Market Overview: Indices in Bear Market Territory After a strong start to the year, U.S. equities have stumbled extremely badly in recent weeks. The S&P 500 is currently down about 22% below its February 2025 all-time high (as the time of writing this, Monday 7 april 3AM EST time), the index is trading slightly above $4,800) , while the Nasdaq Composite has fallen roughly 26.5% from its peak – putting it deep into a bear market at $16,325 points. Even the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average is in a correction, having slid around 19%+ from its ATH. This broad decline has been accelerated by escalating trade tensions – notably sweeping tariffs announced in early April – which sparked a vicious selloff and the worst week for stocks since 2020 In just the two days following the tariff news, the S&P 500 plunged over 10%, wiping out trillions in market value (Hedge funds capitulate, investors brace for margin calls in market rout | Reuters). Such rapid, across-the-board declines have investors asking: Is the market finally near a bottom, or is there further pain ahead? This analysis will go over key technical indicators and sentiment gauges as of April 7, 2025 to assess whether a market bottom may be forming. Volatility and Options Sentiment (VIX, Put/Call Ratio & Implied Volatility) One classic hallmark of a market bottom is extreme volatility as investors capitulate. The Cboe VIX, Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” recently spiked to 60 on April 7, a level not seen since the early stages of the COVID crash in 2020 and the peak of the Global Financial Crisis in 2008. This move marks a significant shift in sentiment: while earlier in the week the VIX was in the low-30s, this surge indicates a full-blown volatility shock, consistent with historical capitulation events. Such a sharp spike strongly suggests the market is experiencing a climax in fear and forced liquidation. Over the past three decades, VIX readings above 50 have typically occurred only at major market bottoms. This extreme VIX level adds to the growing body of evidence that fear has reached saturation, and we are potentially witnessing the formation of a durable bottom. Another critical indicator is the put/call ratio, which reflects how aggressively traders are buying put options versus call options. Initially, the ratio hovered around 0.85, indicating moderate bearishness. However, as of April 6, 2025, the put/call volume ratio surged to 2.06 on SPY options specifically, based on live Barchart data. That means traders are buying more than twice as many puts as calls, a level not seen since the COVID crash. Further reinforcing the signal, SPY’s open interest put/call ratio stands at 1.68 or 1.64 depending on the scource, with put open interest at 10.99 million contracts compared to 6.72 million calls, according to OptionCharts.io. This skew indicates extreme hedging behavior, consistent with historical panic conditions. Even more striking is the implied volatility (IV) for SPY options: • IV (30d): 38.52% • IV Rank: 101.48% • IV Percentile: 100% • Historical Volatility: 27.98% This means the current implied volatility is higher than 100% of the past year’s readings, signaling maximum premium demand for protection. When IV reaches such extremes, it generally implies that traders are paying record-high prices to hedge downside risk—a common occurrence at or just before market bottoms. In summary, options sentiment now reflects not just fear, but full-blown capitulation: • VIX at 60 (multi-year high, extremely rare event) • Put/Call Volume Ratio at 1.68 • SPY IV at 38.52% with 101.5% IV rank • Put open interest heavily outweighs calls Taken together, these suggest an intense bearish consensus that, historically, often occurs just before a reversal. While no single metric predicts a bottom, the convergence of these extreme levels across volatility, positioning, and premium costs dramatically increases the probability that a capitulation low is forming or has just formed. Market Breadth and Technical Trends Broad market internals provide further clues about the selloff’s severity. Market breadth – the ratio of advancing to declining stocks – has deteriorated dramatically, reflecting how widespread the downturn is. In late March and early April, down-days were strikingly one-sided. For example, during the week of March 31 which, only 188 stocks on the NYSE rose while 2,662 fell, with a staggering 1,073 stocks hitting new 52-week lows (Markets Diary - WSJ). That means roughly 93% of all NYSE-listed issues declined over that period – an extremely weak breadth reading. Such lopsided selling (where virtually everything is “thrown out”) is often seen in the late stages of a bear move, as even high-quality names get caught in the capitulation. That said, some technicians look for 90% down days (when 90%+ of volume and issues are to the downside) as a classic bottom signal. So far we’ve seen readings in the 80-90% range (e.g. about 81% of S&P 500 stocks fell on March 31) (Wall Street searches for elusive signs that market bottom reached | Reuters), but not quite a definitive 90% washout on a single day. The breadth data thus indicates heavy selling pressure, if not a textbook capitulatory flush just yet. But keep in mind this was on march 31st. The real pain came the week after that, with the s&p500 falling 10% in 2 days, a decline I have rarely seen in my 7 year trading career. Death Cross, might actually signal a bottom instead of a further decline In terms of trend indicators, the major indices have decisively broken below key moving averages. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow are all trading well under their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which confirms the intermediate-term downtrend. In fact, the decline has been steep enough that the market turned into a so-called “death cross” pattern – where the 50-day average crosses below the 200-day average. This crossover is a lagging technical signal, but it underscores that momentum has flipped negative. (Notably, many high-flying stocks from last year have already seen “death crosses” of their own.) While ominous, it’s worth remembering that such signals often follow the bulk of a decline – i.e. by the time a death cross occurs, a significant amount of downside has typically already happened. Often, a death cross appears right when stocks are about to bottom. From a contrarian perspective, technical weakness itself can set the stage for a bottom, as oversold conditions and deeply negative momentum sometimes precede eventual stabilization. Still, at this juncture the price trend remains firmly downward, and bulls would want to see indices regain their moving averages or at least flatten out before declaring a true bottom. Fear & Greed Index: Sentiment at Extreme Fear. REDICULOUS levels (4/100) Perhaps the clearest evidence of the market’s psychological state comes from CNN’s Fear & Greed Index, a composite of seven market indicators (market momentum, stock strength, breadth, options activity, junk bond demand, volatility, and safe-haven demand). As of early April 2025, this index is deep in the “Extreme Fear” zone (Best Buys April 2025 - Compounding Quality ). In fact, the Fear & Greed reading has collapsed to levels last seen only during major crises – comparable to September 2008 (the Lehman collapse) and March 2020 (the COVID crash) (Best Buys April 2025 - Compounding Quality ). Such an abysmal sentiment reading of 4/100 indicates that investor psychology is extraordinarily bearish right now. Anecdotally, panicked retail investors and cautious institutions alike are exceedingly risk-averse – selling stocks, hoarding cash or Treasury bonds, and otherwise assuming the worst. Also, gold hit a new all time high on April 3rd, completely shattering the $3000 mark. Another sign of extreme fear in the markets. From a contrarian standpoint, extreme fear is usually a super bullish signal. The famous adage by Warren Buffett, “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful,” resonates strongly at moments like this (Market and Investor Sentiment for April 2025 | Certuity). An Extreme Fear reading implies that a lot of bad news and pessimism is already “priced in” to the market. Historically, when the Fear & Greed Index is this low, stocks have often been near a bottom or at least poised for a relief rally (because most investors who were inclined to sell have already done so). It suggests the market may be approaching maximum pessimism, a precondition for a durable bottom. However, sentiment alone doesn’t call the bottom – it’s necessary but not sufficient. We need to also see actual buying interest returning (or catalysts improving) to confirm a turning point. As one market technician noted, “First you get the fear (capitulation), then you need the positive reaction to confirm a low has been made” (Wall Street searches for elusive signs that market bottom reached | Reuters). Right now we clearly have the fear, but we’re waiting to see if buyers step back in to establish a floor. Looking at the volume of the SPDR S&P500 retail ETF trust, we can see that the volume hit 217.97M. This is the highest volume we have seen since January 2022, which was the low before the index at least saw a significant bounce up. Macroeconomic Backdrop and Market Psychology Beyond technicals, the broader macroeconomic narrative and investor psychology cycle provide context for whether a bottom is forming. The current selloff has been catalyzed by a specific shock – a global trade war scenario – which raises uncertainty about economic growth and possibly higher inflation leading to raised interest rates. Newly announced U.S. tariffs and swift retaliation from China have led investors to price in a higher risk of recession (which J. Powell confirmed), shattering the complacency that prevailed in late 2024 (Stock Market on April 4, 2025: Dow plunges 2,231 points into correction territory while Nasdaq enters bear market; S&P 500 books biggest weekly drop since 2020 as China retaliates on tariffs. - MarketWatch) (Hedge funds capitulate, investors brace for margin calls in market rout | Reuters). Just a few months ago, many market participants were optimistic (perhaps overly so) about U.S. economic “exceptionalism” and continued earnings growth. Now, that optimism has flipped to extreme fear and disbelief. We see signs of capitulation on the institutional side: some hedge funds have reportedly liquidated their stock portfolios entirely to cut risk, citing a “chaotic” outlook and unclear future (Hedge funds capitulate, investors brace for margin calls in market rout | Reuters). Margin calls are forcing leveraged investors to sell into the falling market, adding to the sense of forced liquidation. This kind of “get me out at any price” trading behavior is typical of late-stage bear market panic. However, a chain reaction of margin calls could lead to even bigger losses. (this might also be the reason traders both institutional and retail are panicking) On the psychological curve, markets appear to be transitioning from the “fear” to “capitulation” phase. Complacency (seen when investors kept buying dips earlier despite warning signs) has definitively evaporated. In its place, despair and panic are increasingly evident – but these are ironically the emotions that precede a market bottom in the classic Wall Street psychology cycle. The saying “darkest before dawn” applies: just when sellers are most exhausted and pessimistic, the groundwork for a bottom is laid. I think the article about margin calls for hedgefunds is a good indication of that. There are also early hints of a possible turn in narrative. For instance, the bond market was rallying tonight (this wasn’t the case onas money seeks safety, and traders are starting to anticipate Federal Reserve rate cuts to cushion the economy (Hedge funds capitulate, investors brace for margin calls in market rout | Reuters). Easier monetary policy or a breakthrough in trade negotiations could serve as a catalyst to stabilize stocks. Always keep the possibility of trade negotiations in mind with trump. You never know what he is up to. He could flip 180 degrees in a second, as we have seen his unpredictability in the first quarter of his presidency term. It’s also worth considering what the next phase after a bottom might look like: often, markets experience a “disbelief rally” – an initial rebound that many mistrust, thinking it’s just a short-lived bounce. If a bottom is indeed forming around now, any rebound in coming weeks might be met with skepticism (investors calling it a “dead cat bounce” or expecting another drop). Such skepticism is normal in early recovery stages; only after the market consistently stops making new lows do investors shift from disbelief to cautious optimism. For now, though, the predominant macro mood is still one of shell-shock. Economic indicators (e.g. manufacturing data and consumer confidence) have weakened, and corporate earnings outlooks are guarded, all of which justify a cautious stance. The collective psyche has moved toward “prepare for the worst”, which, paradoxically, is what creates the conditions for things to start getting better. Major indices have undergone a sharp correction, valuations have pulled back, and sentiment is extremely bearish – Fear & Greed is at extreme fear (Best Buys April 2025 - Compounding Quality ), put/call ratios are elevated (Wall Street searches for elusive signs that market bottom reached | Reuters), and market breadth shows widespread capitulation-like selling (Markets Diary - WSJ). Importantly, these are the kinds of conditions that historically precede market bottoms, as selling pressure eventually exhausts itself and opportunistic buyers step in. There are early anecdotes of capitulation (e.g. hedge funds giving up on stocks) and volatility has surged, indicating peak fear may be near. However, it is equally important to note what’s absent or uncertain: No obvious positive catalyst has emerged yet to definitively turn the tide. The risk factors (e.g. trade war, recession odds) are still in play, meaning investors could remain skittish. In essence, the market might be forming a bottom, but it has not conclusively confirmed one. Bottoms are only ever obvious in hindsight. In real time, one can merely weigh the evidence. As of April 7, 2025, the evidence leans toward an aging selloff with growing contrarian appeal – the crowd is very fearful, and value is returning – but patience and caution are warranted. Traders will be watching for telltale confirmation signals of a bottom: stabilization of prices above recent lows, a drop in volatility, improvement in breadth (more stocks advancing), and the market’s ability to rally on bad news (indicating selling has dried up). For investors, the current environment calls for a balanced, objective approach. The conditions are certainly closer to a bottom than they were a few months ago during the greed/complacency phase, but that doesn’t guarantee the exact bottom is in. It helps to remember that “being early” to a bottom is far better than being late to a panic. I think it is time to DCA aggressively into the markets as off 7 april 2025. With fear running high, long-term investors may find opportunities to start nibbling selectively at high-quality stocks trading at a discount, while keeping some powder dry in case of further downside (Wall Street searches for elusive signs that market bottom reached | Reuters). In summary, the U.S. stock market is showing classic signs of bottoming – extreme fear, heavy hedging, and broad weakness – yet until we see the market’s reaction stabilize (and some resolution to macro risks), it’s prudent to remain vigilant. A bottom could be forming, but confirmation will come only with time and subsequent market action, not simply the calendar. Investors should stay disciplined, focus on quality, and be ready for continued volatility as the market seeks out its true bottom. Sources: Key market statistics and sentiment indicators were referenced from recent analyses and reports, including Reuters, MarketWatch, and investor sentiment surveys (e.g. CNN Fear & Greed Index) (Wall Street searches for elusive signs that market bottom reached | Reuters) (Stock Market on April 4, 2025: Dow plunges 2,231 points into correction territory while Nasdaq enters bear market; S&P 500 books biggest weekly drop since 2020 as China retaliates on tariffs. - MarketWatch) (Best Buys April 2025 - Compounding Quality ) (Wall Street searches for elusive signs that market bottom reached | Reuters) (Markets Diary - WSJ). These sources provide context on the April 2025 market conditions, highlighting the elevated volatility (Wall Street searches for elusive signs that market bottom reached | Reuters), bearish options positioning (Wall Street searches for elusive signs that market bottom reached | Reuters), weak market breadth (Markets Diary - WSJ), and extreme fear sentiment (Best Buys April 2025 - Compounding Quality ) that characterize the potential bottoming process. Technical analysis TA: As for the technical analysis, my self written indicator (which is also based on various community open scource trading view scripts) Shows that we are back in the equilibrium zone. Furthermore, the stochastic RSI has hit 0 on the weekly, and the regular RSI is sitting at 26.6, the lowest level since the 2020 covid crash. Furthermore the indicator printed an 8/9 on the weeikly chart, with 9 giving a checkmark. Usually an 8 or a 9 signals a bottom. The daily chart is sitting at a 7/9, which makes me think that we are at a bottom, if not EXTREMELY close to one. Right now, we have also hit a key support area, the 2022 all time high before the markets crashed like i predicted (see previous articles) So TLDR: What is the plan? Of course, timing the market is risky, however I think this is a good time to Dollar Cost Average very aggressively into the markets. Personally I did my first buy ins on Friday April 4th, and will continue to do so this week. EVEN if we end up crashing further, we will always experience a dead cat bounce. Stocks don’t go down in a straight line. As my stocks are in the profit, i will put my stop losses into the profit as well. If the stop losses get hit into the profit, we wait what the market does. Maybe we buy again, a few weeks later maybe we will stay out and hold cash. Only time will tell what the best plan is when that happens. There is no point in deciding that right now. TDLR: Bottom is most likely in or VERY, Very close. BUY, but keep some cash at hand for if the market declines even further (or to keep healthy margin requirements if we end up buying with leverage, which is a bit riskier. Don’t time the market, but act appropriately. Opportunities like this create wealth for the brave in extreme fear situations. TIME TO BUY, DCA HARD INTO THE MARKETS, but keep a little bit of cash for if we do end up going lower!!!!!!!!!!!! Personally, I think blue chip stocks are a steal right now. And the buying doesn't stop there as mid caps also provide amazing opportunities right now.
SP:SPXLong
by Y_Duursma