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USA500 trade ideas

Trendline Broken – Is the Bull Run in Trouble?The S&P 500 index is currently exhibiting a critical technical structure. After forming a series of Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL) within a well-respected rising trendline, the price recently made an All-Time High (ATH) but has since shown signs of weakness. The trendline, which has acted as a dynamic resistance multiple times, has now been broken. At present, the price is retesting the key horizontal support zone and the 200 EMA after the breakdown. This retest is crucial—a rejection here could confirm a bearish shift, potentially leading to lower levels near the next key support zone. Additionally, the RSI is displaying a bearish divergence, signaling weakening momentum despite recent highs. Key Takeaway: Watch for confirmation at the retest zone. A rejection may signal a deeper correction, while a reclaim of the trendline and 200 EMA could reestablish the bullish structure. Risk management is key at these pivotal levels.
SP:SPXShort
by unichartz
2
Still more upside for SPX500USDHi traders, SPX500USD did exactly what I've predicted. Last week I said we could see a (corrective) upmove to the higher Weekly FVG. It depends if the upmove is corrective or impulsive what we will be the move after that. But also fundamentally we could see more longer term downside for this pair. This scenario is still in progress for next week. So let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for a small correction down to finish on a lower timeframe to trade longs. If you want to see more from my analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a boost and respectful comment. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. If you don't agree, that's fine but I don't need to know it. I do not provide signals. Don't be emotional, just trade! Eduwave
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by EduwaveTrading
Rolling Crisis': How one solution tends to feed the next problemThe Cycle of Crisis: How Fed Interventions and Post-Crisis Policies Set the Stage for Future Turbulence Research suggests that solutions to financial crises—ranging from the Federal Reserve’s early market interventions in 1922 to post-2008 policies—often create conditions that later lead to new crises. Historical evidence indicates that measures such as deposit insurance, deregulation, and quantitative easing can inadvertently encourage risk-taking, creating a cyclical pattern of stabilization followed by vulnerability. ================================ Historical Context and Analysis ================================ The Fed's Role Since 1922 In 1922, the Federal Reserve pioneered the use of open market operations to manage the money supply. By purchasing government securities, the Fed aimed to stabilize credit conditions and influence interest rates. This early intervention set the stage for modern monetary policy and demonstrated how central bank actions can have far-reaching effects on market behavior. Post-Great Depression Reforms and Moral Hazard Following the Great Depression, a series of reforms restored public confidence: Glass-Steagall Act (1933): Separated commercial and investment banking to limit excessive risk-taking. Creation of the FDIC: Insured bank deposits, boosting consumer trust. Fed as Lender of Last Resort: Provided emergency liquidity to prevent bank failures. These measures, while stabilizing, also introduced moral hazard. Banks, knowing they were protected, gradually assumed more risk—a trend that contributed to later financial instability. Deregulation and the 2008 Crisis In the 1990s and early 2000s, financial deregulation intensified: Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act (1999): Repealed parts of Glass-Steagall, allowing banks to merge commercial and investment functions. Commodity Futures Modernization Act (2000): Deregulated derivatives markets, increasing the complexity of financial instruments. Intended to modernize the financial sector, these changes inadvertently enabled risk buildup. The mixing of high-risk investment activities with traditional banking practices contributed to vulnerabilities that eventually led to the 2008 financial meltdown. Post-2008 Policies and Unintended Consequences In response to the 2008 crisis, policymakers adopted aggressive measures: Quantitative Easing (QE): The Fed injected liquidity by purchasing large quantities of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities. Low Interest Rates: Keeping rates near zero spurred borrowing and spending. While these policies stabilized markets and averted deeper recession, they also contributed to unintended outcomes such as asset price bubbles and rising inflation, which may sow the seeds for future economic challenges. ================================ Cyclical Nature of Crisis Responses ================================ A review of historical episodes reveals a recurring pattern where each crisis response, while effective in the short term, can alter market incentives and build vulnerabilities that later trigger new crises. Comparative Analysis 1922–1929: Open market operations stabilized credit but contributed to speculative booms. Post-1930s: Safety nets restored confidence but led to increased risk-taking (moral hazard). 1990s–2000s: Deregulation modernized finance yet enabled risk buildup that precipitated the 2008 crisis. Post-2008: QE and low rates stabilized recovery but fueled asset bubbles and inflation. Lessons for Policymakers Tailored Responses: Each crisis is unique; policies must account for long-term impacts. Guard Against Moral Hazard: Safety nets should be paired with measures to discourage reckless behavior. Balanced Regulation: Financial innovation requires robust oversight to prevent systemic risks. Conclusion From the Fed’s pioneering steps in 1922 to today’s complex economic environment, history shows that every crisis solution has its price. Emergency measures—though vital for short-term stability—can reshape market incentives and create vulnerabilities that may lead to future crises.
SP:SPX
by holeyprofit
Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) seasonal strategists and swing tradersThrift Savings Plan (TSP) swing traders and seasonal swingers update AMEX:RSP SP:SPX AMEX:SPY AMEX:VOO : it is very tempting to call this the local bottom, but I caution against making that assumption just yet. We aren't trying to catch falling knives. Instead, we're riding the momentum. Let's look at previous examples, in which the assumption was that we bottomed, highlighted in boxes. What would I like to see before jumping back into C-Fund? S&P 500 stocks above the 200-day moving average, staying above 50%. Next, I'd look for the equal weighted S&P 500 ETF AMEX:RSP to make a higher low, which should also show up on the weighted S&P 500.
TVC:SPX
by Davy_Dave_Charts
S&P500 The Week Ahead 24th March '25S&P500 bearish & oversold, the key trading level is at 5766 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by TradeNation
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 21, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the course of this week's trading session, the S&P 500 achieved the designated target for the Inner Index Rally at 5576, which occurred midweek. This target was accompanied by considerable volatility, ultimately hindering upward movement. On the week's final trading day, the index experienced a notable decline, resulting in a significant drop that reached our critical target, Mean Support, at 5603. Consequently, the index is now poised to target a retest of the Inner Index Rally level 5712, with a subsequent potential target identified at the Mean Resistance level 5840. It is essential to consider that upon reaching the Inner Index Rally target of 5712, a decrease in the current price level is anticipated, which may lead to a retest of the Mean Support at 5601. Furthermore, an extended decline is possible to revisit the completed Outer Index Dip at 5520 before the resumption of an upward rally.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
What Do the S&P 500 and Nasdaq’s Charts Say?Let's take a look at charts for the S&P 500 SP:SPX S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite Index NASDAQ:IXIC to see where the market might be heading. The S&P 500’s Technical Picture Take a look at the S&P 500’s chart going back to early January: Check out the market action from last Friday (March 14) -- a day when New York Stock Exchange winners beat losers by roughly 16 to 3. Advancing volume took a commanding 90.1% share of composite NYSE-listed trade, and an almost as impressive 80.8% share of composite Nasdaq-listed activity. However, aggregate trade nonetheless dropped 3.1% on a day-over-day basis across NYSE-domiciled names and 0.8% for Nasdaq-listed ones. In other words, there was less conviction in last Friday's rally than was visible in any of the recent down days that led to that session. As a matter of fact, that Friday was the quietest trading day for S&P 500 stocks since Feb. 20 -- more than three weeks earlier. Hence, we could probably not call Friday’s rally a change in trend. Then came the Federal Reserve’s latest monetary-policy statement and press conference this past Wednesday (March 19). The Fed left rates unchanged, but its “dot plot” reiterated that the central bank still expects to cut rates by 50 basis points this year – news that helped send the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up more than 1% each. Would technical analysis have told us to expect this? Well, readers will note that the chart above shows a so-called “double top” pattern of bearish reversal from early January through late February (marked “Top 1” and “Top 2” in the red boxes above. Next, the S&P saw what we call "Day One" of the bearish change in trend on Feb. 21, marked with an orange box in the chart above. A “Day One” isn’t necessarily the first day of a trend change. Instead, it’s merely the first day of a trend change that occurs broadly and on sharply increased trading volume. The S&P 500’s “Day One” above was followed by a so-called "Confirmation Day" on Feb. 27. A “Confirmation Day” is a session that confirms a trend change. It can come anywhere from two days to several days after the Day One. However, a Confirmation Day must represent a broad move and come on increased trading volume -- and there’s also a catch. There must be a pause in between the Day One and the Confirmation Day. This suggests that portfolio managers took some time, thought about what they were doing and then continued to either increase or decrease exposure depending on the Confirmation Day’s pattern (up or down). Without this pause, what we would have is one long move that doesn’t confirm anything technically. In the above chart, all of what we saw was a spot-on sign of a double-top pattern. But next came a so-called "Outside Day" on March 3 -- a one-day pattern that hinted at increased volatility to come. An Outside Day occurs when the trading range of a given day completely envelopes the day prior and the open and close of said day also encompass the open and close of the day prior. This one-day pattern often signals a coming period of increased volatility. Next, the S&P 500 saw a so-called "faux Day One” last Friday, March 14. That could have kicked off a bullish change in trend, but the S&P 500 rose on light trading volume. Additionally, the SPX never made a serious run at retaking its 200-day Simple Moving Average (or “SMA,” marked with a red upwardly sloping line above). Technical analysis won’t tell us much about the S&P 500 (or the Nasdaq Composite, for that matter) as long as those indexes trade below their 200-day SMAs. That often keeps portfolio managers on the sidelines. In fact, much of the swing crowd tones down their activity as well as long as the major indices don’t even make a run at their respective 21-day Exponential Moving Averages (or “EMAs,” denoted by the green line above). Also note that even on the down day of March 18, the S&P 500’s trading volume (marked with gray bars in the chart above) continued to tail off a bit, indicating increasing uncertainty. That said, readers will see a slight uptick in trading volume for this past Wednesday (Fed Day). The S&P 500 was up nicely that day, and got off to a good start on Thursday (March 20) as well. Alone, that’s not enough to christen a new "Day One" of a bullish trend reversal, partly because the Nasdaq Composite was not as active (as readers will see below). Typically, Wall Street would like to see both major indexes up on sharply increased trading volume to declare a “Day One” bullish reversal. The SPX and Nasdaq have come very close to allowing us to do that, but don’t appear to be there yet. Technical Analysis for the Nasdaq Composite Index Next, let’s look at the Nasdaq Composite’s chart going back to early December: The Nasdaq appears more challenged than the S&P 500 at this time, but both are close to giving us the first step of what the bulls need to see. As with the SPX, the Nasdaq Composite saw a “double-top” bearish pattern in December and January (marked “Top 1” and “Top 2” above). The index then saw a “Day One” and a “Confirmation Day” in late February, followed by an “Outside Day” on March 3. It then saw an “Up Day” on March 19, although on lower trading volume. And as with the S&P 500, the Nasdaq Composite has yet to retake its 200-day SMA (the upwardly sloping red line in the chart above). The Bottom Line Add it all up and the major US equity indices look like they remain in a downtrend. We still need to see a "Day One” move to the upside, then a pause and then a "Confirmation Day." That could take up to a week, but to rush into things without confirmation is closer to gambling than it is to trading. Again, the 200-day SMA is perhaps the most important item to watch on these charts. That's where large flows of capital will come from … if portfolio managers decide to increase their overall long-side exposure. (Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen “Sarge” Guilfoyle had no position in the securities mentioned at the time of writing this column.) This article discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Past investment performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal. This content is also not a research report and is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. The information contained in this article does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Moomoo and its affiliates make no representation or warranty as to the article's adequacy, completeness, accuracy or timeliness for any particular purpose of the above content. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that any statements, estimates, price targets, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Moomoo is a financial information and trading app offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. In the U.S., investment products and services on Moomoo are offered by Moomoo Financial Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. TradingView is an independent third party not affiliated with Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Technologies Inc., or its affiliates. Moomoo Financial Inc. and its affiliates do not endorse, represent or warrant the completeness and accuracy of the data and information available on the TradingView platform and are not responsible for any services provided by the third-party platform.
SP:SPX
by moomoo
1
S&P500 INTRADAY Bearish oversold bounce back Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 5714 Resistance Level 2: 5770 Resistance Level 3: 5872-5920 Support Level 1: 5500 Support Level 2: 5387 Support Level 3: 5254 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by TradeNation
The Election Was Support. Has it Become Resistance?Last year’s presidential election was a catalyst for stocks. Today’s idea considers its potentially shifting impact on sentiment. The first pattern on today’s S&P 500 chart is the range between 5597 and 5783. Those prices are the low of November 4 and the high of November 5, the Monday and Tuesday of election week. On January 13, SPX pulled back to find support at the top of the range. That bounce seemed to reflect ongoing optimism about the coming administration. (Inauguration was exactly a week later.) The index remained above that zone through early March before sliding below it. Prices have now rebounded but appear to be stalling at the bottom of the price range. Does that show a newer anxiety about policy? Next, Wilder’s relative strength index (RSI) made lower highs from early December -- despite SPX making incrementally higher highs. That kind of bearish divergence may be consistent with a longer-term trend fading. Third, SPX is under its 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Staying here may confirm a break of its longer-term uptrend. Finally, the 50-day SMA recently crossed below 100-day SMA. Both are falling. That may also suggest prices have stopped rising. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
SP:SPX
by TradeStation
SPX500 2nd Leg Down? 21 Mar 2025 Yesterday's candlestick closed as a bull bar in its lower half with a long tail above. In yesterday's report, we said traders would see if the bulls could create a strong retest of yesterday's (Mar 19) high followed by a breakout above. Or if the retest would lack follow-through buying, stalling around or slightly above yesterday's high area. The market formed a retest of the March 19 high, but stalled and formed a lower high. We said the move while strong, likely was simply a bull leg and a buy vacuum test of the trading range high. If true, sellers would emerge near the trading range high, which was the case. (Please refer to the tagged post) The bulls want the market to form a 2 legged sideways to up pullback. The pullback is currently underway but has a lot of overlapping candlesticks. The bulls are not yet as strong as they hope to be. They need to create credible buying pressure - consecutive bull bars closing near their highs to increase the odds of testing the 20-day EMA or the January 13 low. For today, the market may open lower today. If the market continues down, they hope the March 18 low will act as support, forming a small double bottom bull flag. The bears see any pullback as minor. They expect at least a small second leg sideways to down to retest the Mar 13 low after the pullback phase. The 9-bar bear microchannel on the daily chart and the 4-bar bear microchannel on the weekly chart increase the odds that the first pullback (current pullback) would be minor and not lead to a reversal up. They hope the leg to retest the March 13 low will begin soon. They must create strong bear bars with follow-through selling to increase the odds of another leg down. The prior climactic selloff and parabolic wedge increase the odds of a pullback which is underway. Traders will see the strength of the pullback. If it is strong (consecutive bull bars closing near their highs), they may look for a retest of the breakout point - Jan 13 low. If the pullback lacks follow-through buying (overlapping candlesticks, doji bars, bear bars, long tails above bars), the odds of another leg down AFTER the pullback phase increase. So far, the pullback has a lot of overlapping candlesticks which indicates that the bulls are not yet as strong as they hope to be. For now, traders will see if the bears can create a strong bear bar today. Or will the market open lower but lack follow-through selling, like yesterday? I will update again later today.
SP:SPX
by Tech_Trader88
Bollinger Bands Pinch, Market Yawns… I Stay Ready Bollinger Bands Pinch, Market Yawns… I Stay Ready | SPX Analysis 21 Mar 2025 It’s Friday, the market’s half-asleep, and I’ve redrawn my trendlines more times than I’ve refreshed my tea. The weekly chart (top left, if you're playing along at home) is shaping up to close with a tight little range bar, which basically tells us what we already knew: we're in a classic sideways smush. (technical term) And yes—I've once again spent time repositioning the bull/bear boundary levels, only to find that my actual triggers haven't changed a bit. The Bollinger Band pinch just confirms the stallout. Nothing new. Nothing sexy. Just… waiting. And honestly? I’m fine with that. Because Monday’s “don’t rush it” dodge saved me from getting trapped on the wrong side of a lazy bounce. Still bearish. Still patient. Still on standby fora push towards 5600, where I’ll happily ring the register on a few bear swings. --- There’s a special kind of frustration in watching a chart do absolutely nothing while you do absolutely everything to analyse it. That’s where we are. SPX continues to compress, now sporting a tight little Bollinger pinch that confirms (again) that the market’s in full nap mode. 🟠 Weekly chart: Range bar. Narrow. Uneventful. 🟠 Boundary redrawing: Done. Re-done. And redone again. 🟠 Bull/Bear triggers: Still the same, above 5705 for bulls, below 5605 for bears. I’ve adjusted my short-term channel view, tried to refine the angles, squinted at a few Fibonacci levels, and... nothing's really changed. . What’s interesting, though, is that while all this noise is happening, the real setups are marinating. My bear swings are aging like fine wine, just waiting for a push toward 5600 so I can cash out a few tranches that’ve been overstaying their welcome. And let’s not forget: 💥 The bull trigger still hasn’t fired. 💥 Monday’s Paddy's Day Party and bull entry swerve? Best decision of the week. 💥 No new entries unless levels break. No exceptions. I’m not expecting a massive move today, though saying that probably jinxed it. If we get some surprise action late in the day, great. If not, I’ll be clicking into the weekend with my blood pressure blissfully normal and my trades still on track. --- Fun Fact 📢 Did you know? Jesse Livermore, one of history’s greatest traders, once said: "The real money is made in the waiting." 💡 The Lesson? The best trades don’t happen when you force them—they happen when you let them come to you.
SP:SPX
by MrPhilNewton