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USA500 trade ideas

Fed triggers US equity sell-offLast night the Federal Reserve surprised no one when it announced a 25 basis point rate cut, taking the Fed Funds band down to 4.25-4.50%, back to levels last seen two years ago. But that wasn’t the main story. The big news came with the release of the FOMC’s quarterly Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). This showed that the majority of FOMC members now expect just 50 basis points-worth of rate cuts between now and the end of next year. While this is what the CME’s FedWatch Tool has been forecasting for a some time now, it represents a major change in the FOMC’s thinking since the last SEP from September. Back then, the forecast was for 100 basis points-worth of cuts in 2025. So this represents a significant hawkish change, and one that led to a slump in equity markets and precious metals, and a surge in the US dollar and bond yields. US stock indices registered their biggest one day declines since March 2020, while the yield on the 10-year Treasury broke above 4.50% to hit its highest level since May this year. If yields find a floor here and head higher, then they could become a big headwind for equity prices going into 2025. It’s worth considering just what a mess the Fed made of that September meeting. Not only was it far too dovish in its forecasts, once again appearing to underestimate the stickiness of inflation, but it also messed up the other side of its dual mandate, the labour side. It got completely blindsided by a couple of poor Non-Farm Payroll reports, to such an extent that it panicked and cut rates by 50 basis points rather than the 25 widely expected. That decision may have set up the central bank for yesterday’s hawkish shift, although in fairness there are several other factors, not all of them bad. Inflation has ticked up recently, which makes it harder for the Fed to justify easier monetary policy. But US growth is undoubtedly robust, while unemployment appears anchored at manageable levels. There is some uncertainty over what the incoming Trump administration may mean for the economy, but overall little has changed. The Fed can be blamed for some poor messaging, but then again investors have only heard what they wanted to hear, blocking out any negative signals. The market hasn’t suddenly woken up to a string of ‘unknown unknows’ or anything else so Rumsfeldian. Instead, the sell-off in equities looks more like a panicked response from a market priced to perfection. And while it shouldn’t be a surprise to see a bounce-back as we approach the Christmas break, the odds have certainly shortened on tops being in for all the major indices.
TRADENATIONSB:US500
by TradeNation
1
Futures Steady After Wall Street Slump on Fed Rate Cut OutlookFutures Steady After Wall Street Declines on Fed's View of Fewer Rate Cuts U.S. stock index futures edged higher on Thursday as investors assessed the Federal Reserve's revised projections, which include fewer-than-expected interest rate cuts and elevated inflation expectations for next year. These updates caused a significant sell-off on Wall Street the day before. On Wednesday, the Fed announced its forecast of only two 25 basis point (bps) rate cuts in 2024, halving its previous projection from September. The central bank also raised inflation expectations for the early months of the incoming administration. These adjustments triggered the steepest daily declines in the three major U.S. stock indices since August. S&P 500 Technical Analysis The S&P 500 experienced a sharp decline of more than 3.5% due to the Federal Reserve's decision to reduce interest rates by only 25 bps. This decision created uncertainty and weighed heavily on investor sentiment. Today, the U.S. GDP report is a key event that could significantly impact the market. The GDP growth rate is projected to decline by 2.8% compared to the previous period. If the GDP data comes in below 2.8%, the market may turn bullish, potentially reaching 5971. If the GDP data exceeds 2.8%, the bearish trend could continue, with the S&P 500 targeting levels of 5885 and 5863. Key Levels Pivot Point: 5932 Resistance Levels: 5971, 5988, 6020 Support Levels: 5885, 5863, 5837 Trend Outlook Downward Trend: Likely to persist if the price remains below 5932. Upward Trend: Potential recovery if the price breaks above 5932.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by SroshMayi
SPX500 Will Go Up! Long! Take a look at our analysis for SPX500. Time Frame: 9h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is approaching a significant support area 5,900.98. The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 5,967.79 level. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
FX:SPX500Long
by SignalProvider
2
Potential bullish rise?S&P500 (US500) has reacted off the pivot which acts as an overlap support and could rise to the 38.3% Fibonacci resistance. Pivot: 5,868.52 1st Support: 5,788.39 1st Resistance: 5,930.95 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:US500Long
by ICmarkets
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): Short to support area 5846.5.Colleagues, I assume that price is completing a five-wave upward movement. I believe that the price may reach the resistance area of 6181.6 then I will consider only downward movement in correction to the area of 5846.5. It is possible that the price will immediately start moving towards this area, but this is a more risky plan. Still, I would like to see the completion of all waves “5” in one place! Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Hellena_Trade
17
SPX Hit Major Resistance Levels In the hours before the election result I posted some longform swing plans on SPX covering the event of a 1.27 hold marking a low. The stages of this would been a parabolic move off the 1.27. A run up to 2.20. Some sort of stall there and then a follow through to 2.61. We now have all stages of that and in the 6050 - 6080 area I exited all my SPX longs taken in the wake of the election and began to build up a short position again. 2.61s are polarising levels. Now the 2.61 has hit the odds of a clean move to one side or the other is very high. 2.61 breaks result in parabolic moves to 3.xx fibs and failure of the 2.61 usually means capitulation to at least the 1.27 (round tripping this rally). Spent last week shorting / buying puts into the rally to position for the possible 2.61 rejecti0on.
SP:SPXShort
by holeyprofit
12
S&P 500 Technical Analysis: Market Reaction to Fed Rate DecisionS&P 500 Technical Analysis The Fed Rate Decision is Coming Today! The market is expected to be volatile due to the Fed’s rate decision, with a potential decrease of 25 basis points. As mentioned earlier this week, the S&P 500 has been following a bullish trend, pushing up from 6022. Today, the index is likely to attempt to reach 6099. If it successfully breaks above 6100, it would confirm a bullish zone, with the potential to climb further toward 6143, especially if the Fed reduces rates by 25 bps. On the other hand, failure to maintain momentum above 6099 could result in the index trading between 6099 and 6022. A bearish trend could begin if 6099 is broken on the downside. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 6099 Resistance Levels: 6143, 6166, 6190 Support Levels: 6058, 6022, 5971 Trend Outlook: Upward Trend: Above 6099 Downward Trend: Below 6022 previous idea:
OANDA:SPX500USD
by SroshMayi
S&P500 hit the MA50 (1d). Huge buy signal.S&P500 hit today its MA50 (1d) following the Fed Rate announcement. At the same time, it is testing the bottom of August's Channel Up. As long as it closes daily inside the pattern, this is a strong buy opportunity. Trading Plan: 1. Buy on the current market price. Targets: 1. 6200 (+5.75% rise similar to the previous one). Tips: 1. The RSI (1d) hit its 3 month Support Zone. If it reverses on it, that might be an even better signal for a buy entry. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingBrokersView
2