Bulls and Bears zone for 09-06-2024This week traders sentiment seems to down. Historically, September is a challenging month for the market.
Level to watch: 5516 ---5514
USA500 trade ideas
S&P 500 Futures: Bearish Below 5526 Amid Recession FearsS&P 500 Technical Analysis
Stock Index Futures Decline as U.S. Recession Concerns Reemerge, JOLTs Report in Focus
The price has retreated from its all-time highs, as previously noted, and continues to exhibit a bearish trend toward the 5,450 level. To reverse this downward momentum, the price would need to close a 4-hour candle above 5,526, which could then lead to a bullish move targeting 5,545 and 5,573.
Key Levels:
Pivot Line: 5526
Resistance Lines: 5545, 5573, 5616
Support Lines: 5480, 5450, 5413
Expected Trading Range Today: The price will likely fluctuate between 5,450 and 5,545.
Trend: Bearish while trading below 5526.
“Yen carry trade crash”Can’t help but see a head and shoulders bearish scenario for the week of August 12-16
This last week was the typical bull trap rally at the base of the textbook head and shoulders with low volume
Do what you want I’m shorting the indexes
S&P 500 - Sell off warning?!S&P 500 reached its All-Time High at 5,669.67 on 16/8/2024 and followed a second attempt to breach this high on 26/9/24 and form a lower high at 5,661.62 where the price currently continues to trade lower. The pattern can be seen as a double top or failure swing (either hasn't developed yet) indicating a probable major reversal. A bounce-back attempt can be hidden with a price currently trading at psychological 5,500. However, a further continuation lower is more possible with the 200-day SMA at 5,153 curving higher and MACD bearish crossover indicating a potential continuation lower around 5,400. A further continuation lower brings to the spotlight the recent low at 5,118.
Is the S&P 500's Bull Run a Mirage?The S&P 500's recent all-time high has ignited a frenzy of optimism among investors. However, as the market reaches unprecedented heights, questions arise about the sustainability of this bull run and the potential risks lurking beneath the surface.
While the allure of soaring stock prices is undeniable, investing in a market at its peak carries inherent risks. The concentration of returns within a few dominant stocks (such as Nvidia, Alphabet, and Amazon), coupled with the potential for geopolitical shocks and economic downturns, introduces significant uncertainty. The dot-com bubble serves as a stark reminder of the market's cyclical nature and the perils of overvaluation.
To navigate this complex landscape, investors must adopt a balanced approach. Diversification, coupled with a keen understanding of economic indicators, geopolitical events, and corporate news, is essential for making informed decisions. By recognizing the potential pitfalls and taking proactive measures to mitigate risk, investors can position themselves for long-term success in the ever-evolving market.
The S&P 500's future remains uncertain, but by approaching the bull market with a critical eye and a strategic mindset, investors can navigate the challenges and capitalize on the opportunities that lie ahead.
$SPX Trading range for tomorrow 9.6.24All right, guys, tomorrow we have the unemployment rate in premarket, as well as the hourly wages report. As of now, we're right in the gap that opened when the consumer spending data was released last month, sitting at the 50-day moving average. Momentum from premarket reports will be huge.
Directly above us, we have the 35 EMA, which has been resistance for the entire week—that's the red line just above where we opened. If we get above that, the first level of resistance is around 5540, which we've tested twice earlier this week. The top of the implied move is at 5570, with Monday's contract at 5585, and at the very top of the implied move for the next two days, we have the 30-minute 200 average. We’re on this timeframe, so consider that as a key resistance point.
At the very top, completely above our trading range for tomorrow, is the gap we started the week with, which pushed us away from all-time highs. To the downside, we have the one-hour 200 moving average, which we bounced on today. Beneath that lies the rest of the consumer spending gap. The bottom of the implied move for tomorrow is 543, and for Monday’s contract, it's 541. Underneath all of that, we have the four-hour moving average.
Let me know how you plan on playing this. Good luck, and see you guys on Sunday night.
S&P500 INDEX (US500): Strong Intraday Bearish Signal
Update for US500.
Earlier, we spotted a breakout of a support line of a horizontal
trading range on a daily.
Retesting a broken structure, the market formed a symmetrical triangle
pattern on a 4H time frame.
Bearish breakout of the support of the triangle gives us a strong intraday bearish signal.
We can anticipate a bearish continuation now.
First goal - 5450
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US 500 set for oversold bounce??Hi Guys,
The US 500 has faced some selling pressure over the last few sessions of trading and is nearing an area from which we may see a bounce.
The Green box just below price on the chart is that area and looking left it contains an obvious demand zone from which there was a big move. The green box above price also contained a demand zone and there was a huge bounce off that just recently (29/8).
There is a harmonic butterfly pattern with good fib ratios which has developed and has completion/ entry point in the zone.
The area is also the 38.2% retracement of the high we have just pulled back from measuring from the daily swing low.
Hourly RSI has been in and out of oversold and is now showing clear divergence as is the 4 hour RSI. A dip back into oversold on the hourly and then a higher low often leads to a good buy point and can be confirmed on lower time frame with price.
Once price enters the zone, lower time frame entry using candlestick, chart pattern, CHOCH BOS etc could lead to a nice risk to reward trade.
SPX500 Buy – Targeting Bounce from Support (Valid only 9/5/24)Entry 1 : 5,480 (First entry at support)
Entry 2 : 5,472 (Adding to the position at deeper support)
Stop Loss (SL): Below 5,445 to manage downside risk.
Take Profit (TP) 1: 5510
Take Profit (TP) 2: 5540
TP1: 5,550 (First resistance zone)
TP2: 5,673 (Next significant resistance level)
Analysis:
Support Bounce: The price is expected to bounce from support between 5,480 and 5,472. Buyers are likely to step in at these levels.
Break of Structure (BOS): The recent BOS at 5,550 gave a lot of Gaps in the market, which is expected to get filled soon
Risk Management: A stop loss at 5,445 protects against a bearish continuation if support fails.
SPX500 Will Fall! SPX500 made a swift
Bullish recovery from the
Lows but the Indice is now
Retesting a horizontal
Resistance level of 5555.01 we will be
Expecting a local
Bearish correction!
S&P500 Short Setup with a Quick Long OpportunityThe S&P500 is approaching red line resistance, offering potential short opportunities. For those looking to flip the script, a quick long trade could be on the table after a retest of the green line support. Timing will be key here—watch for reactions at these crucial levels.
Stay tuned for more chart insights, and follow for updates as the price action unfolds!
*Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always trade responsibly!*
Detailed version of SPX stages as per the Minksy model. The popularity of indices have come a long way over the last decades.
Back when Bogle first marketed and popularised the idea, it was deemed to be "Un-American". Randomly allocating value to things based on their placing in an index. That's basically communism. That's the kinda thing that was being said back in the day. But Bogle persisted and the indices uptrended and here we are.
We now live in an age where indices are essentially considered to be magic. Can't go wrong as long as you're in it for the long term. Millions of people either choose to or are obligated to auto-invest into these indices on a monthly basis. It's gotten to a stage where society is heavily influenced by what these indices do.
Have the indices gotten safer as time has went on? Probably not. The weighted indices have had the default effect of allocating the most capital to the biggest stocks and facilitated the concertation of capital into these stocks - a form of malinvestment. "Removing price discovery" - as many have lamented in the recent years.
If it happened to be the whole idea of passive investing fit inside of the Minsky model - we'd now be in the extremely advanced stages of it.
S&P 500 Nearing Pattern TargetThe S&P 500 fell sharply on Tuesday, shedding more than -2.0%. This completed a double-top pattern at 5,651 (just shy of all-time highs of 5,669) and positioned the Index within striking distance of the pattern’s take-profit objective at 5,472, which could serve as support. Complementing this level is the 50-day simple moving average at 5,505 and support at 5,488.
As a result, traders will likely monitor support between 5,472 and 5,505.
FED Rate Cut Sept. 19: Market ImplicationsFed expected to cut rates ~0.5% on Sept. 19
Short-term outlook:
• Likely market correction before/during the event
• "Sell the news" expected
• Traders may capitalize on retail investors' optimism around the FED rate cut
Why? Historical patterns show corrections often precede rate cuts. this time might be no exception.
FED rate cut market dynamics:
• Institutional investors take profits around the rate cut
• Potential liquidity squeeze as positions unwind
• Volatility and TVC:VIX will increase
Long-term:
• Rate cuts generally bullish over time
• Lower rates can stimulate economic growth
• But full effects may take months to materialize
Strategic considerations:
• Market dip can be a buying opportunities
• Consider index ETFs like SP:SPX and NASDAQ:QQQ and stocks with fundamentals or even Bitcoin. Personally, I will also add the leveraged ETFs AMEX:SSO and AMEX:QLD
• Consider dollar-cost averaging during volatility
Markets are complex. This analysis isn't financial advice. Always do thorough research and consider your risk tolerance.
short term longsWe are expecting price to rally to the our supply zone located ath the highs of our higher time frames, this is a high risk high reward trade as it is taking during the selling pressure found on the LFT's
Very Important 2 Days ... Hi Everybody
We probably gonna see loads of volatility because of This employment Data ahead of us that volatility wave is gonna help to find market direction first, i would not jump into trade when things not clear PATIENCE is very important...!
Remember As a Trader we do not predict the future.!
I can still share my ideas in mean time but i would never stay in trade very long because we are not in trading market. There is loads of divergence market idea ( Bulls -Bears ) on the market this is why market is not trending ...
Best of Luck
Regards
$SPX Tomorrow's Trading Range in SPX for Sept 5 2024Tomorrow's Trading range is so interesting!! Welcome back, volatility... welcome back!!
Bearish divergence SP500 weeklyAs you can see there is a bearish divergence between SP500 and both RSI and MACD on the weekly chart.
It may take some time, but normally it doesn't look good for the stock market.
You Are a Puppet - How The Elite is Manipulating the MarketsWelcome back Future Demons
Let me make it very clear. I’m here to help you become a better trader, and make money. I’m not a fan of Wall Street, the Elite, the big asset management companies like BlackRock, Vanguard who own most of the biggest companies in the world.
They are known for manipulating the markets, to bait you in, and take advantage of you. They are ruthless. They have secret collabs with journalists around the world from big mainstream media, who will trick you with clickbait articles. But there is way more..
Also there is a big misconception, that the big American asset management companies only hold Western stocks.
No, my friend. They hold Russian and Chinese stocks as well. They try to disguise it of course via shadow companies and banks.
The Elite in USA, Europe, Russia and China are all "working together", and all have part in the world’s biggest companies and share the same goal. More money and more power.
This is NOT a war between sides - East vs West - as they will portrait it in the mainstream media. They have and will continue to brainwash you to believe in this narrative, while they are making money, and the people are dying in war.
This is in reality a war between up and down. The elite vs the people.
Historically it has always been like that. The church vs the illiterate people. The Kingdom vs the peasents.
And there is no difference this time.
——
Why am I telling you this?
We haven’t seen a bear market in 15 years, which is unheard of. We have been very close many times, but suddenly came COVID, which made the markets blossom again. The small businesses went bankrupt, while the giants made money again.
After some time we saw a decline again. Russia invaded Ukraine, and USA (NATO), didn’t try to stop the war. They rejected any kind of diplomatic negotiations.
Why? Obviously because they knew, that especially a proxy-war is good for the markets. All the weapons US has sold to Ukraine, made the markets recover.
Then again very conveniently Israel had an excuse to use their power against Palestine, which meant more war-money, and again the market managed to recover.
The recent little trick is now the 600,000 polio-vaccines UN will give to the Palestinian kids, who are suffering in Gaza. There is catch though, that many is not aware of.
The polio vaccine is made by a French company Sanofi. It only takes a Google search or 2 to find out, who the biggest investor is: Dodge Cox, owned by Johnson, Wells Fargo, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft and more.
Last but not least, let me also state, that the AI hype lately has been the main reason the markets has increased.
But with this post I just want to make it clear, that the Elite, the Deep State, whatever you want to call them, will do whatever it takes to make money. And they are ruthless.
What to do now?
If you are out of the markets, stay out! If you are in the markets secure profit. We have no idea how high we will go, but there is no doubt imo, that this is a huge bubble, and we will most likely soon go into a Depression like we did 100 years ago in the 1930s.
War has historically always been the last instrument before a crash.
Kind Regards
LaPlaces Demon
PS. I know that some people might disagree with my analysis, which is totally ok. What I have learnt the last 10 years trading is to follow the money. And market psychology is my biggest strength.
