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USA500 trade ideas

Potential trade setup on S&P 500We are looking at a long trade on S&P 500 based on the stretch strategy. There is trend,stretch and direction alignment with this trade on both 1h and Daily TF. Early entry was taken on swing high breakout on 1h for a trend change. There is a high probability for range,previous daily high and range to be formed to the upside. We will exit the trade once range has been achieved. Trader Order Details: S&P 500(Long) E - 6083 SL - 6066 T - 6122 We will be tracking this move and updating the post as we go along on the charts and on video. Keep a look out for it traders.
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by masterthemarkets2010
China threatens US AI dominanceUS stock index futures have tumbled overnight. Investors rushed to bail out of chipmakers and tech-related equities in reaction to China’s threat to US dominance over the development of generative AI. A relatively small Chinese company called DeepSeek has produced a powerful open-source artificial intelligence model at a fraction of the cost, yet with capabilities equal or better than, many US versions such as ChatGPT. The DeepSeek version is already the top-rated free application on Apple's US App. The threat has led to a sudden, and painful, reconsideration of tech stock valuations along with their plans for future capital expenditures. The tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 was down close to 4% in early trade, with thumping losses for chipmakers. NVIDIA, Super Micro Computer and the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company were all around 10% lower in morning trade. ‘Magnificent Seven’ constituents Meta, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Tesla were all 5-6% weaker. The final ‘Mag 7’ member, Apple, was little-changed. But it has fallen 15% from its all-time high from Christmas, and testing support around $220. Given this year’s sell-off, investors may decide to sit on their hands for now, at least until they can digest Apple’s earnings which are released after Thursday’s close. On Wednesday there are fourth quarter updates from Microsoft, Meta Platforms and Tesla. It’s worth considering that the ‘Mag 7’ members account for 34% of the total market capitalisation of the S&P 500, so there’s a lot riding on this quarter given current high valuations and the uncertainty that comes with a Trump presidency. Mr Trump has yet to impose tariffs despite threats to Canada, Mexico and China. He successfully threatened Colombia to take two plane-loads of deportees or face tariffs of 25%, rising to 50% next week. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates unchanged after its meeting on Wednesday. In the meantime, bond prices are picking up again. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell 11 basis points to 4.50% this morning-its lowest level in over a month. This suggests that investors are putting the proceeds of dumped stocks straight into the bond market for now. It could also imply that equities could have more downside, given opportunists don’t appear to be in any rush to buy at cheaper levels.
TRADENATIONSB:US500
by TradeNation
The S&P 500 May Have Positive SignsStocks have declined since early December, but some traders may expect the longer-term uptrend to resume. The first pattern on today’s S&P 500 chart is 5,783, the close on Election Day (November 5). The index tested and held that level last week, potentially suggesting support is in place. Second is the falling trendline along the recent peaks. SPX may be attempting to push back above that resistance. Third, MACD is turning higher and prices are back above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). Next, the 63-day rate of change has been positive since November 2023. It bounced slightly above 0 last week to preserve that condition. Prices also held their rising 100-day SMA. Those points may confirm longer-term strength. Speaking of November 2023, last week saw the 10-year Treasury yield revisit levels from that period before dipping. Staying below those levels may be a positive for sentiment. Speaking of sentiment, the American Association of Individual Investors' (AAII) weekly survey just had a bullish reading of 25 percent and a bearish reading of 41 percent. Those were the most extreme on the negative side since early November 2023. In other words, three indicators point back to the start of the current bull run in November 2023: 63-day rate of change, the 10-year Treasury yield and AAII sentiment. In addition, data from FactSet suggests earnings are poised for their quickest growth since late 2021. Could those points -- combined with the technical patterns on SPX -- be interpreted as positives? TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
SP:SPX
by TradeStation
Stock Market Show Relative Initial Calm After Trump InaugurationFollowing the inauguration of Donald Trump and the observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day, U.S. stock markets resumed activity with a positive tone, as the S&P 500 advanced 0.4% at the start of the session. This initial optimism is supported by the relative calm that followed the first day of operations under the new administration. Although the president reiterated his intention to reform the trade system to “protect Americans” and threatened tariffs and duties on foreign countries, later making specific references to Mexico and Canada with a potential 25% tariff starting in February, the absence of concrete measures created a sense of tranquility in the markets. This lack of immediate action, contrasting with prior rhetoric, has been a key factor for stabilization. The initial moderation in implementing trade measures, compared to the campaign tone, has injected caution and optimism into the markets. This pause allows investors to carefully assess future economic directives. This respite is also reflected in the fixed-income market. Yields on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond have declined, dropping below the 4.6% threshold after hitting a multi-year high of 4.8% on January 14. This decline in yields supports risk-taking in other assets, fueling optimism in the equity market. However, it is crucial to remain cautious. While the absence of drastic initial measures has calmed markets, uncertainties surrounding trade policies are likely to resurface in the future. Potential trade moves and their impact on inflation remain a risk factor to closely monitor. It is too early to celebrate a definitive victory on the trade front. Tensions are highly likely to reignite and generate market volatility. The key will be to observe the evolution of negotiations and the actual implementation of announced policies. Looking ahead, attention will begin to shift to the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Investors will be particularly attentive to any indications providing clarity on the stance of the Federal Reserve (Fed), especially following the economic optimism that characterized the early weeks of January. Recent inflationary economic data, such as the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which showed positive surprises, have helped to relatively moderate expectations for a more restrictive monetary policy. The FOMC meeting will be crucial to understanding the Fed’s view on the current state of the economy and its future outlook. Any signals regarding the direction of interest rates, as is customary, will have a significant impact on the markets. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by Pepperstone
SPX: on a tricky pathDuring the previous two weeks, the US equity market went through a short term correction, amid investors fears that the Fed might halt further cuts of interest rates during the course of this year, due to stronger than expected jobs market and potential surge in inflation in the US. The December inflation figures were posted during the previous week, which showed that the inflation in the US was held below market expectations, which brought back some optimism among investors. The S&P 500 recovered from losses, and ended the week at the level of 5.996. However, the question still remains if the index took a path toward the upside, or is this only a short term optimism? An inauguration of the new US Administration is scheduled for January 20th, where the markets will closely watch what measures will be actually taken within the first week, from all the promises from the pre-election period. The most challenging move is the one related to trade tariffs with China, which might bring some negative impact to the US economy. In this sense, Monday will be a day to watch during the week ahead. For one more week, tech stocks were in the focus of market attention during the previous week. Tesla stocks gained over 3% for the week, followed by other big tech companies and the semiconductor industry. The only stock that is still struggling to regain market cap is Apple, whose shares were hit by news that Apple is losing market share in China due to strong competition from local smartphone producers. Banking sector was also closely watched, as they posted quarterly results. As their earnings were higher from expectations, the stocks of major US banks gained significantly within the week. Goldman Sachs and CITI Group were traded higher by roughly 12%, while JPMorgan was traded higher by 8%. For the week ahead, Monday is the day to watch. After the President-elect won the US elections in November, the market reacted in a positive manner. Whether this optimism will continue to hold after his inauguration is to be seen during the week ahead.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Jan 17, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the recent trading session, the S&P 500 attained our designated downside target of Mean Support at 5775, which initiated a robust rally. This rally enabled the index to reach our target of Mean Resistance at 5920 and advance further to the newly identified Mean Resistance at 6035. The market is currently exhibiting strong and consistent upward movement. The bullish trend appears poised to continue towards our subsequent target, the Outer Index Rally at 6123, which will be approached via Key Resistance at 6090. Following that, additional targets of 6233 and 6418 are also anticipated. However, it is essential to acknowledge that reaching the initial rally level and the subsequent targets will result in a price pullback. Such a pullback is expected to prepare the market for the next phase of the bullish trend.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
What Is the January Effect on Stock Markets and What Traders Do?What Is the January Effect on Stock Markets and What Traders Do? The January effect has long fascinated traders, highlighting a seasonal pattern where stock prices, especially smaller ones, tend to rise at the start of the year. But what drives this phenomenon, and how do traders respond? This article dives into the factors behind the January effect, its historical performance, and its relevance in today’s markets. What Is the January Effect? The January effect is a term used to describe a seasonal pattern where stock prices, particularly those of smaller companies, tend to rise during January. This phenomenon was first identified in the mid-20th century by Sidney B. Wachtel and has been widely discussed by traders and analysts ever since as one of the best months to buy stocks. The effect is most noticeable in small-cap stocks, as these tend to show stronger gains compared to larger, more established companies. Historically, this uptick in January has been observed across various stock markets, though its consistency has diminished in recent years. At its core, the January effect reflects a combination of behavioural, tax-related, and institutional factors. Broadly speaking, the phenomenon is linked to a surge in buying activity at the start of the year. After December, which often sees tax-loss selling as traders offload poorly performing stocks to reduce taxable gains, January brings renewed buying pressure as these funds are reinvested. Additionally, optimism about the new year and fresh portfolio allocations can amplify this trend. While the January effect was more pronounced in earlier decades, changes in trading patterns and technology have made it less consistent. Yet, it still draws attention, particularly from traders looking for seasonal trends in the market. Historical Performance and Data Studies have provided empirical support for the stock market’s January effect. For instance, research by Rozeff and Kinney in a 1976 study analysed data from 1904 to 1974 and found that average stock returns in January were significantly higher than in other months. Additionally, a study by Salomon Smith Barney observed that from 1972 to 2002, small-cap stocks outperformed large-cap stocks in January stock market history by an average of 0.82%. However, the prominence of the January effect has diminished in recent decades. Some studies indicate that while January has occasionally shown strong performance, it is not consistently the well-performing month. This decline may be attributed to increased market efficiency and the widespread awareness of the effect, leading investors to adjust their strategies accordingly. Some believe that “as January, so goes the year.” However, Fidelity analysis of the FTSE 100 index from its inception in 1984 reveals mixed results. Out of 22 years when the index rose in January, it continued to produce positive returns for the remainder of the year on 16 occasions. Conversely, in the 18 years when January returns were negative, the index still gained in 11 of those years. Check how small-cap stocks behave compared to market leaders. Factors Driving the January Effect on Stocks The January effect is often attributed to a mix of behavioural, institutional, and tax-related factors that create a unique environment for stock market activity at the start of the year. Here’s a breakdown of the key drivers behind this phenomenon: Tax-Loss Selling At the end of the calendar year, many traders sell underperforming stocks to offset gains for tax purposes. This creates selling pressure in December, especially on smaller, less liquid stocks. When January arrives, these same stocks often experience renewed buying as traders reinvest their capital, pushing prices higher. Window Dressing by Institutions Institutional investors, such as fund managers, often adjust portfolios before year-end to make them look more attractive to clients, a practice called "window dressing." In January, they may rebalance portfolios by purchasing undervalued or smaller-cap stocks, contributing to price increases. New Year Optimism Behavioural psychology plays a role too. January marks a fresh start, and traders often approach the market with renewed confidence and optimism. This sentiment can lead to increased buying activity, particularly in assets perceived as undervalued. Seasonal Cash Inflows January is typically a time for inflows into investment accounts, as individuals allocate year-end bonuses or begin new savings plans. These funds often flow into the stock market, adding liquidity and supporting upward price momentum. Market Inefficiencies in Small-Caps Smaller companies often experience less analyst coverage and institutional attention, leading to so-called inefficiencies. These inefficiencies can be magnified during the January effect, as increased demand for these stocks creates sharper price movements. Why the January Effect Might Be Less Relevant The January effect, while historically significant, has become less prominent in modern markets. A key reason for this is the rise of market efficiency. As markets have become more transparent and accessible, traders and institutional investors have identified and acted on seasonal trends like the January effect, reducing their impact. In financial markets, the more a pattern is exploited, the less reliable it becomes over time. Algorithmic trading is another factor. Advanced algorithms can analyse seasonal trends in real-time and execute trades far more efficiently than human traders. This means the potential price movements associated with the January effect are often priced in before they have a chance to fully develop, leaving little room for manual traders to capitalise on them. Regulatory changes have also played a role. For instance, tax reforms in some countries have altered the incentives around year-end tax-loss harvesting, one of the primary drivers of the January effect. Without significant December selling, the reinvestment-driven rally in January may lose its momentum. Finally, globalisation has diluted the January effect. With global markets interconnected, price trends are no longer driven by isolated local factors. International flows and round-the-clock trading contribute to a more balanced market environment, reducing the impact of seasonal trends. How Traders Respond to the January Effect in the Stock Market Traders often pay close attention to seasonal trends like the January effect, using them as one of many tools in their market analysis. While it’s not a guarantee, the potential for small-cap stocks to rise in January offers insights into how some market participants adjust their strategies. Here are ways traders typically respond to this phenomenon: 1. Focusing on Small-Cap Stocks The January effect has historically been more pronounced in small-cap stocks. Traders analysing this trend often look for undervalued or overlooked small-cap companies with strong fundamentals. These stocks tend to experience sharper price movements due to their lower liquidity and higher susceptibility to seasonal buying pressure. 2. Positioning Ahead of January Some traders aim to capitalise on the January effect by opening a long position on small-cap stocks in late December, possibly during a Santa Claus rally, anticipating that reinvestment activity and optimism in January will drive prices up. This approach is not without risks, as not all stocks or markets exhibit the effect consistently. 3. Sector and Industry Analysis Certain sectors, such as technology or emerging industries, may show stronger seasonal performance in January. Traders often research historical data to identify which sectors have benefited most and align their trades accordingly. 4. Potential Opportunities Active traders might view the January effect as an opportunity for shorter-term trades. The focus is often on timing price movements during the month, using technical analysis to identify entry and exit points based on volume trends or momentum shifts. 5. Risk Management Adjustments While responding to the January effect, traders emphasise potential risk management measures. Seasonal trends can be unreliable, so diversification and smaller position sizes are often used to potentially limit exposure to downside risks. 6. Incorporating It Into Broader Strategies For many, the January effect is not a standalone signal but part of a larger seasonal analysis. It’s often combined with other factors like earnings reports, economic data, or geopolitical developments to form a more comprehensive approach. The Bottom Line The January effect remains an intriguing market trend, offering insights into seasonal stock movements and trader behaviour. While its relevance may have shifted over time, understanding it can add value to market analysis. For those looking to trade stock CFDs and explore potential seasonal trading opportunities, open an FXOpen account to access a broker with more than 700 markets, low costs, and fast execution speeds. FAQ What Is the Stock Market January Effect? The January effect refers to a historical pattern where stock prices, particularly small-cap stocks, tend to rise in January. This trend is often linked to tax-loss selling in December, portfolio rebalancing, and renewed investor optimism at the start of the year. What Happens to Stock Prices in January? In January, stock prices, especially for smaller companies, may experience an uptick due to increased buying activity, caused by a mix of factors, including tax-loss selling, “window dressing”, seasonal cash inflow, new year optimism, and market inefficiencies in small caps. However, this isn’t guaranteed and depends on various contextual factors. Is December a Good Month for Stocks? December is often positive for stocks, driven by the “Santa Claus rally,” where prices rise in the final weeks of the year. However, tax-loss selling, overall market sentiment and geopolitical and economic shifts can create mixed outcomes for the stock market, especially for small-cap stocks. Is New Year's Eve a Stock Market Holiday? No, the stock market is typically open for a shortened trading session on New Year's Eve. Normal trading hours resume after the New Year holiday. Which Months Could Be the Best for Stocks? According to theory, November through April, including January, have been months when stocks performed well. This trend is often attributed to seasonal factors and increased investor activity. However, trends change over time due to increasing market transparency and accessibility. Therefore, traders shouldn’t rely on statistics and should conduct comprehensive research. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:SPXMEducation
by FXOpen
1
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 1.21.2024🔮 📅 Tue Jan 21 🗓️ Day 2 📍 WEF Annual Meetings 📅 Wed Jan 22 🗓️ Day 3 📍 WEF Annual Meetings 📅 Thu Jan 23 🗓️ Day 4 📍 WEF Annual Meetings ⏰ 8:30am 📊 Unemployment Claims: 220K (prev: 217K) ⏰ 11:00am 🛢️ Crude Oil Inventories: -2.0M 📅 Fri Jan 24 🗓️ Day 5 📍 WEF Annual Meetings ⏰ 9:45am 📊 Flash Manufacturing PMI: 49.4 📊 Flash Services PMI: 56.8 ⏰ 10:00am 📊 Existing Home Sales: 4.19M (prev: 4.15M) 📊 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment: 73.2 💡 Market Insights: 📈 GAP ABOVE HPZ: On a gap up, we will get pinned down at HPZ back into the EEZ. 📊 OPEN WITHIN EEZ: A lot of resistance overhead. Markets should cool down after the gaps from last week. Small rally into fade downwards. 📉 GAP BELOW HCZ: We will likely get a small bounce and hold. #trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting #investing
SP:SPXShort
by PogChan
Down for SPX500USDHi traders, Last week SPX500USD came into the Daily FVG and rejected from there to the upside. It could be that the WXY correction is finished and price is now going up again to a new ATH. Next week we could see a (corrective) move down and after that more upside. Let's see what the market does and react. Trade idea: Wait for a bigger correction down to finish. After that you could trade longs. If you want to see more from my analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a boost and respectful comment. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. If you don't agree, that's fine but I don't need to know it. I do not provide signals. Don't be emotional, just trade! Eduwave
OANDA:SPX500USD
by EduwaveTrading
3
Weekly GEX Insights: 01/13 SPX dropTotal Correction? What Can an Options Trader Do in This Situation? How Far Might We Fall This Week? We’ll tackle these questions in this week’s options newsletter! It looks like the new president hasn’t even been sworn in yet, but the market is already reacting with fear to every statement he makes. Last week’s economic data didn’t help ease those concerns either. SPX Weekly Analysis Friday’s red candle set a bearish tone heading into this week. Everyone is predicting and pricing in a potential market apocalypse, and I keep getting the same question: “Greg, how far can we fall?” My answer remains the same: we can fall indefinitely—nobody can know for certain ahead of time. What we can do, however, is analyze our charts and use the our weekly GEX profile to identify the key levels, so we can better understand the market’s dynamics. Examining expirations through Friday, every NETGEX profile is negative , so we can expect volatile movements this week. We’re currently trading below the HVL level, which means that market makers are likely to move in tandem with retail traders. This typically results in bigger swings. We already saw this heightened volatility last week—just look at the size of the candles, and you can tell how quickly sentiment can shift. Below 5965 (the HVL level), we are in a high volatility zone what lies underneath? 1st Support Range: 5780–5800 5800: Currently the strongest PUT support level on the downside. A correction may pause here due to profit-taking. Right beneath this level is the previous gap-fill zone. Remember, these areas function as ranges rather than single lines, as I’ve highlighted down to 5780. This could easily be a take-profit target for traders playing gap fills—an approach that’s quite popular. 2nd Support Range: 5700–5650 (Very Strong) Starting at 5700: We encounter another robust PUT support zone. This area is reinforced by previous lows, previous highs, and the 4/8 grid boundary from our indicator. Even if nowhere else, many expect at least a local rebound to occur within these levels. Putting it all together, it’s clear that the weekly trading range is shaping up to be roughly between 5680 and 5965, expecting big & volatile moves. Remember, CPI and PPI data are coming out on Tuesday and Wednesday, which could trigger additional volatility. When looking at SPX, SPY, or /ES futures, my opinion is that the rapidly spiking implied volatility (IV) during a market drop, along with a PUT pricing skew, can present favorable opportunities for options traders. The distance to the strongest lower support zone is around 100–150 points, so you could: Trade directionally for the short term—hoping to be either right or wrong quickly, or Try to profit from the market situation in a more strategic way (which is what I typically do). Personally, I prefer the second approach: I’ll open short-term (a few days) credit put ratio spreads for a small credit, which gives me a wide breakeven range and a big “tent” on the downside.
SP:SPX
by TanukiTrade
S&P500: Every January same rally starting. Target = 6,950.S&P500 is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 48.738, MACD = -35.090, ADX = 24.753) but just turned marginally bullish on 1W (RSI = 55.182) today. This technically signifies the market's enormous upside potential on the long term. The 2 year pattern is a Channel Up after all and every January since 2023, a new rally starts which exceeds +20% in gains. As long as the 1W MA50 supports, the bullish trend will be dominant. We are aiming for another +21% rise like the previous Jan 2024 rally (TP = 6,950). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:SPXLong
by InvestingScope
2